晨会主题 【常规内容】 证券研究报告 | 2025年07月08日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-07-07 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3473.12 | 10435.50 | 3965.17 | 11927.72 | 3000.59 | 978.29 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.02 | -0.69 | -0.42 | -0.10 | -0.30 | -0.66 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 4761.97 | 7324.43 | 2251.06 | 2668.02 | 3465.09 | 175.19 | 行业与公司 汽车行业专题:人形机器人系列专题之新型减速器-摆线减速器有望成为 人形机器人新的迭代方向 机械行业周报:制造成长周报（第 21 期）-中央财经委员会提出推动海洋 经济发展，字节跳动 2 年半量产千台机器人 食品饮料周报（25 年第 27 周）：茅台价格趋稳，关注板块中报业绩表 ...

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of a "non-standard" audit report by Lixin Accounting Firm for ST Xinchao (600777) has sparked significant market discussion, raising questions about the professionalism and diligence of the audit process, especially given the conflicting opinions with previous auditors and international firms [1][2]. Group 1: Audit Report Details - Lixin's audit report is the first "non-standard" financial report in ST Xinchao's history and contradicts the opinions of top international audit firms, leading to investor skepticism regarding Lixin's professionalism [2]. - The audit covered a retrospective period of ten years, with ST Xinchao providing detailed asset lists and historical audit reports from its U.S. subsidiary, which consistently received standard unqualified opinions from Forvis Mazars, a top-ranked firm [2][3]. - Discrepancies were noted between the oil well information reported by the U.S. Railway Commission and ST Xinchao's operational data, with the company attributing these differences to variations in data collection methods over the years [3][4]. Group 2: Professionalism and Diligence - Lixin's report highlighted differences in accounts receivable and transaction amounts from customer confirmations, with the discrepancies being minor relative to the total amounts confirmed [4][5]. - The board of ST Xinchao emphasized that the minor discrepancies cited by Lixin were negligible and had already been resolved, questioning the necessity of a non-standard opinion based on these findings [5][6]. - The board also pointed out that Lixin's request for detailed asset records was inconsistent with industry practices in the U.S., where oil and gas assets are typically managed at a broader level [6][7]. Group 3: Market Response and Implications - The board of ST Xinchao called for a better understanding of the differences in industry practices and legal environments between China and the U.S., urging market intermediaries to objectively assess these factors [7]. - Despite the non-standard opinion, investors noted that the audit did not reveal any significant financial deficiencies, alleviating concerns about potential financial fraud and reducing the risk of delisting due to reporting issues [7].

Core Viewpoint - Zhang Chuanjiang has been focusing on energy integration, increasing reserves and production, cost reduction and efficiency improvement, and green transformation during his first month as Chairman of CNOOC [1][2][4] Group 1: Key Activities and Focus Areas - Zhang has participated in multiple meetings and research activities, emphasizing the integration of oil and gas with various new energy projects [1][2] - On June 18, during a work survey at CNOOC, he highlighted the need for the integration of oil and gas with new energy and the development of marine energy [1] - On June 19, he stressed the importance of high-quality development in overseas operations and optimizing asset layout [2] - He visited Tianjin from June 25 to 26, focusing on enhancing energy security through key areas such as increasing reserves and production, cost reduction, and technological innovation [2] - On June 27, he called for increased forward-looking research to gain a competitive advantage in future industries [2] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Zhang aims to establish a "wind-solar-storage-hydrogen" green energy production base, leveraging offshore oil field electricity needs to develop surrounding offshore wind and solar projects [4] - He emphasized the importance of carbon capture and storage (CCUS) technologies and the integration of various energy projects to promote sustainable energy development [4] - On July 2, he acknowledged the achievements of the research institute in supporting CNOOC's high-quality development through technological advancements [4] - He has called for a focus on exploration and production, particularly in large and medium-sized oil and gas fields, to enhance reserve management capabilities [6] - Zhang has also highlighted the need for a world-class natural gas trading company, balancing profit and sales while expanding market presence [9]

"海洋产业增加值增速明显高于国内生产总值（GDP）增速，与此同时，海洋产业结构不断优化，传统 产业如渔业、船舶、油气、交通、旅游等持续发展，新兴产业如高端装备、生物医药、海洋电力等也快 速崛起。"叶银丹表示。 多数专家认为，我国海洋经济正处于向高质量发展的战略转型期。 "一个突出的表现在于，服务业在海洋经济中的重要性更加突出。"叶银丹分析认为，尽管在海洋经济的 产业链中，第二产业门类数量较多，但从增加值占比的角度来看，第三产业的重要性更加突出。数据显 示，2024年，海洋经济中三次产业结构占比分别为4.6%、35.8%和59.6%。 专家表示，中央财经委员会第六次会议释放出明确的"科技兴海"信号。随着人工智能、新能源技术等不 断渗透和应用于海洋产业，将为海洋经济向高科技、高附加值方向发展提供强大的技术支撑和创新动 力。科技创新将成为海洋经济发展的第一引擎。 年产值超10万亿元的海洋经济，再次迎来重磅政策利好。 近日召开的中央财经委员会第六次会议指出，推动海洋经济高质量发展，要加强顶层设计，加大政策支 持力度，鼓励引导社会资本积极参与发展海洋经济。 "推进中国式现代化必须推动海洋经济高质量发展，走出一条具有中国 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury has authorized a general license related to sanctions, allowing the unloading of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cargoes in Venezuela until September 5 [1]

Group 1 - Tesla's stock price fell by 7.6% in pre-market trading, marking the largest decline since early June, with a year-to-date drop of 22% [1] - Shell Plc anticipates a significant decrease in contributions from its oil and gas trading business for Q2 compared to Q1 [1] - Google faces antitrust complaints from independent publishers regarding its AI summaries [1] Group 2 - Huya Inc. saw a pre-market increase of 2.4% after acquiring broadcasting rights for the 2025 Esports World Cup in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia [1] - Honda has halted the development of a large SUV, which was part of its electric vehicle strategy [1] - Stellantis reported a 10% year-over-year decline in vehicle deliveries in the U.S. market for Q2, totaling 309,973 units [1] - Trump Media & Technology Group has launched a global television live streaming service [1]

Investment Rating - The oil and gas industry is rated as "Outperform" [6] Core Views - The report highlights significant fluctuations in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and OPEC+'s decision to accelerate production in August by 548,000 barrels per day [1][16] - Brent crude oil is expected to stabilize between $65 and $75 per barrel in 2025, while WTI crude oil is projected to be in the range of $60 to $70 per barrel [2][19] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - In June 2025, the average price of Brent crude futures was $69.9 per barrel, an increase of $5.9 per barrel month-on-month, while WTI averaged $67.6 per barrel, up $6.3 per barrel [1][14] - The highest prices reached were $79 for Brent and $78 for WTI during mid-June due to geopolitical events and declining U.S. oil inventories [1][14] Supply Side Analysis - OPEC+ announced an acceleration of production in August by 548,000 barrels per day, with plans to complete this increase by September 2025 [16][20] - The report notes that OPEC+ has extended its voluntary production cuts until March 2026, with a gradual restoration of production starting in April 2025 [20][21] Demand Side Analysis - Major energy agencies forecast an increase in global oil demand of 720,000 to 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, and 740,000 to 1.28 million barrels per day in 2026 [2][17] - The expected demand for 2025 is projected at 105 million barrels per day according to OPEC, IEA, and EIA [2][17] Key Companies and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), Satellite Chemical, CNOOC Development, and Guanghui Energy, all rated as "Outperform" [3][5]

Core Viewpoint - ST Xinchao faces significant challenges due to an audit report that issued a "disclaimer of opinion," leading to a change in its stock designation to "*ST Xinchao" and triggering delisting risk warnings [1][2] Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, ST Xinchao reported a revenue of 8.362 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.50% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.036 billion yuan, down 21.57% year-on-year - The company has experienced negative growth in net profit for two consecutive years, raising concerns about its financial health due to the audit's "non-standard" opinion [2] Corporate Governance Issues - A power struggle among shareholders has emerged, with Yitai B acquiring 50.1% of ST Xinchao's shares on May 30, becoming the controlling shareholder - On June 19, six shareholders holding over 10% of the shares requested an extraordinary general meeting to discuss the early re-election of the board of directors and supervisory board [3][4] Board and Supervisory Actions - On June 28, the board of directors unanimously rejected the shareholders' request for a meeting - Following this, the same six shareholders submitted a request to the supervisory board for a general meeting, which was also denied on July 4 [4] Industry Implications - The situation surrounding ST Xinchao serves as a warning for the capital market, emphasizing the need for listed companies to balance short-term performance with long-term governance - After resuming trading on July 8, *ST Xinchao will be subject to a daily price fluctuation limit of 5%, highlighting the critical nature of its survival and transformation in the oil and gas sector [5]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a surge in the combustible ice concept stocks in the afternoon session [1] - Haimer Technology experienced a rapid increase of over 8% [1] - Guangzhou Development also followed with a rise, while stocks like Neway and Qianeng Hengxin narrowed their declines [1]

看好深海科技的持续性 20250706 摘要 深海科技对国家国防和能源安全至关重要，尤其是在国内游戏开发领域， 对外依赖度高，深海游戏开发因此成为能源安全的关键组成部分。 中国深海技术面临挑战，尽管在渤海湾浅海开发积累经验，但深海项目 仍依赖海外总包方，不过，地质勘探、钻井平台、采油树和 FPSO 等核 心设备正逐步提升。 全球供应链向亚太转移，中国作为重要提供者，提升了在全球深海行业 的地位。东南亚、南美和北非的需求增加，促使中国供应链的重要性大 幅提升。 地缘政治因素对中国南海、东海南部及黄海南部产生影响，但随着中国 实力增强，不确定性风险降低，未来有望开展更多高水平深海外包项目。 南海及其附近区域的开发前景乐观，靠近深圳湾和海南等地具有较大潜 力，地缘政治因素淡化，经济性提升，深海油气开发成本效益显著。 深海油气开发技术可行性提高，标准化生产模式使成本降至约每桶 30 美元，海南深海科技城正在推进前沿项目，中海油已采购采油树设备。 深海科技发展将积极拉动中海油服、海油工程、博迈科及迪威尔等公司， 建议关注既有业绩又有估值优势的深海科技板块。 Q&A 深海科技在今年的政策推动下，未来的发展前景如何？ 今年 ...