Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a significant reversal in the livestock cycle, recommending Hong Kong-listed dairy farming stocks as core investments [1][12] - The monthly recommended portfolio includes YouRan Agriculture, Modern Farming, and Muyuan Foods, which are leaders in their respective sectors [1][3] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is expected to benefit from a cyclical rebound, with a focus on both beef and milk production, as domestic prices are projected to rise significantly by 2027 [14][40] - The report highlights that the domestic milk price has been in decline for nearly four years, leading to pressure on production capacity, while the beef-to-milk price ratio has reached historical highs, prompting faster culling of dairy cows [14][40] Swine Sector - The swine sector is experiencing a gradual recovery, with leading companies expected to benefit from improved cash flows and dividend potential as industry capacity contracts [1][15] - The report emphasizes that the current valuation of leading swine companies is at historical lows, indicating potential for valuation recovery [15][22] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is seeing an increase in supply, with expectations for demand recovery, particularly in the white-feathered chicken segment, which is entering a consumption peak [24][30] - The report notes that the price of broiler chickens has shown a slight recovery, with a projected increase in profitability for leading poultry companies [24][30] Pet Sector - The pet industry is identified as a promising new consumption sector, benefiting from the rise of domestic brands and emotional consumer trends [16][20] - The report recommends leading pet food companies, which are expected to continue their growth trajectory due to product upgrades and direct sales transformations [20][16] Feed Sector - The feed sector is highlighted for its deepening industrialization and clear division of labor, with leading companies expected to widen their competitive advantages through technology and service [1][3] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting that the price of corn has increased by 4% month-on-month, while soybean meal prices are at historical lows, indicating a potential for future recovery [2][22] - The report also mentions that the egg market is under pressure from supply increases, while the demand for soybeans is tightening in the medium to long term [2][18]

Core Insights - The report anticipates a significant reversal in the livestock cycle, particularly recommending Hong Kong-listed dairy farming stocks [1][12] - The monthly recommended portfolio includes YouRan Agriculture, Modern Farming, and Muyuan Foods, which are expected to benefit from the livestock cycle recovery [1][3] - The report highlights the expected upward trend in domestic beef and milk prices, suggesting a strong recovery in the performance of livestock companies [1][14] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is projected to experience a major turnaround, with a focus on dairy farming stocks such as YouRan Agriculture and Modern Farming [1][14] - The report indicates that the domestic beef and milk markets are likely to see a price rebound, driven by a reduction in production capacity and improved demand dynamics [1][14] - The anticipated "meat-milk resonance" is expected to enhance profitability for dairy farming companies, with significant earnings recovery potential [1][14] Swine Sector - The swine sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in prices, with leading companies like Huazhong and Muyuan Foods positioned to benefit from valuation corrections [1][14] - The report notes that the cash flow of leading swine companies is improving, which may lead to higher dividend payouts in the future [1][15] - The current market conditions suggest that the swine industry is stabilizing, with a focus on maintaining reasonable breeding levels [22] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is experiencing a slight increase in supply, with expectations for demand recovery to support price stabilization [24] - The report highlights that the white-feathered chicken market is showing signs of recovery, with prices expected to improve as the consumption season approaches [24] - Leading poultry companies are anticipated to maintain strong profitability amid changing supply dynamics [24] Pet Industry - The pet industry is identified as a promising growth area, with domestic brands gaining traction and expected to benefit from rising consumer sentiment [1][16] - The report emphasizes the potential for local pet food brands to capture market share, particularly in the high-end segment [1][16] - The performance of leading pet food companies is projected to remain strong, driven by product upgrades and direct sales strategies [20] Feed Sector - The feed sector is expected to benefit from deeper industrialization in livestock farming, with leading companies leveraging technological and service advantages [1][14] - The report indicates that feed prices are at historical lows, providing a strong cost support for livestock producers [1][14] - The anticipated tightening of supply-demand balance in the feed market is expected to lead to gradual price recovery [1][14] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting that the price of live pigs was 11.25 yuan/kg at the end of November, down 10% month-on-month, while the price of 7kg piglets increased by 18% [2][22] - The report also highlights that corn prices have increased by 4% month-on-month, indicating a potential bottoming out in the market [2][22] - The overall agricultural sector is showing resilience, with the SW Agricultural Index outperforming the broader market [2][22]

Core Viewpoint - The Guotai Junan Zimeng team has achieved significant recognition in the food and beverage research sector, winning the title of "Best Analyst in the Food and Beverage Industry" at the 2025 Analyst Conference and the 7th Sina Finance "Golden Unicorn" Awards, reflecting their deep understanding of consumer trends and a mature research framework [1][2]. Group 1: Team Performance - The Guotai Junan Zimeng team moved from second place in the 2024 awards to first place in 2025, indicating a strong competitive potential and improvement in research capabilities [2]. - The competition landscape changed significantly, with the GF Securities team ranking second and Huachuang Securities team dropping to fourth place [2]. Group 2: Award Details - The Guotai Junan team members include Zimeng, Yan Huijing, Xu Yang, Yao Shijia, Li Yao, Cheng Biheng, Zhang Yuxuan, Chen Liyu, Li Meiyi, Pang Yuze, Miao Xin, Zhang Jiaying, Yang Liu, Yan Qinghui, and Li Yibing [1]. - The awards highlighted the top teams in the food and beverage sector, with Guotai Junan taking first place, GF Securities second, and Changjiang Securities third [3]. Group 3: Industry Insights - The Zimeng team believes that the liquor industry is currently undergoing a rapid clearing adjustment phase, with inventory levels decreasing and stock prices potentially rising amidst market pessimism [9]. - The beer industry is expected to clear earlier than the liquor sector, with increasing differentiation within the industry, suggesting investors should focus on regionally competitive beer leaders [9].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Strongly Outperform the Market" [5][72]. Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand imbalance in the pig farming sector continues, leading to downward pressure on pig prices. As of November 28, the pig price was 11.20 CNY/kg, a decrease of 0.42 CNY/kg week-on-week. The average weight of pigs sold increased to 129.22 kg, up 0.41 kg week-on-week, indicating a potential recovery in prices in the long term due to capacity reduction policies [2][10][30]. - In the beef sector, calf prices have rebounded, and the long-term trend for beef prices is upward. As of November 28, the price for fattened bulls was 25.55 CNY/kg, down 0.12% week-on-week, while calf prices rose to 32.09 CNY/kg, up 0.28% week-on-week. The market is expected to tighten due to a reduction in breeding cows [3][33]. - The poultry sector is experiencing a decrease in the enthusiasm for restocking broiler chicks, with prices slightly adjusting. As of November 28, the price for white feather broilers was 7.19 CNY/kg, up 0.04% week-on-week, while broiler chick prices were 3.47 CNY each, down 0.01 CNY [4][40]. - The agricultural products sector, particularly soybean meal, is seeing price fluctuations. As of November 28, the spot price for soybean meal was 3100 CNY/ton, up 30 CNY/ton week-on-week. The market is expected to continue its oscillating trend due to high domestic inventory levels [4][55]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The supply-demand imbalance persists, leading to a decrease in pig prices. The average price on November 28 was 11.20 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.42 CNY/kg. The average weight of pigs sold increased to 129.22 kg, indicating a potential recovery in prices in the long term due to capacity reduction policies [2][10][30]. - The average profit for self-bred pigs was -147.99 CNY/head, and for purchased piglets, it was -248.82 CNY/head, reflecting ongoing losses in the sector [10]. Beef Industry - Calf prices have shown signs of recovery, with the price for fattened bulls at 25.55 CNY/kg, down 0.12% week-on-week, and calf prices at 32.09 CNY/kg, up 0.28% week-on-week. The market is expected to tighten due to a reduction in breeding cows, leading to a potential upward trend in beef prices in the coming years [3][33]. Poultry Sector - The enthusiasm for restocking broiler chicks has decreased, with broiler prices at 7.19 CNY/kg, up 0.04% week-on-week, and broiler chick prices at 3.47 CNY each, down 0.01 CNY. The ongoing avian influenza outbreak may lead to a contraction in upstream production capacity [4][40][43]. Agricultural Products - The soybean meal market is experiencing price fluctuations, with a spot price of 3100 CNY/ton, up 30 CNY/ton week-on-week. The market is expected to continue its oscillating trend due to high domestic inventory levels and external factors affecting supply [4][55].

Core Viewpoint - The raw milk price is stabilizing and expected to rise in 2026, benefiting from the reduction in supply-side expansion and a decrease in breeding stock, alongside the release of processing capacity on the demand side [2][3] Group 1: Raw Milk Price Trends - The raw milk price has shown signs of recovery in September due to seasonal supply-demand mismatches and the implementation of new sterilized milk standards, leading to a preliminary balance in the industry supply-demand structure [2] - The self-sufficiency rate of raw milk in China exceeds 70%, with imports of dry dairy products equivalent to 15 million tons of fresh milk in 2024, accounting for 37% of raw milk production [2] - Major companies like Yili and Mengniu are enhancing their processing capacity, which is expected to further boost raw milk demand as domestic substitution increases [2] Group 2: Beef Cattle Market Outlook - The stock of breeding cows continues to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.4% in national cattle stock as of Q3 2025, indicating a sustained supply gap and a favorable market cycle expected to continue until 2027 [3] - The U.S. imposed a 40% tariff on Brazilian beef starting August 2025, leading to increased beef imports into China, with the impact of this tariff expected to diminish following policy relaxations in November [3] - Future import restrictions could further stimulate domestic beef demand, especially as the investigation into beef import measures concludes in January [3] Group 3: Profitability and Margin Improvements - Profitability for dairy farming leaders is expected to improve significantly, with gross margins potentially increasing by over 6% to 10% if milk prices rise by 10% to 20% [3] - The valuation of breeding cows and income from culling are anticipated to increase, with companies like Yuran and Modern Farming expected to see additional revenue of 240 million and 180 million yuan respectively from rising cattle prices [3] - The fair value of breeding cows is likely to benefit from the reversal in milk prices, reduced feeding costs, and optimized herd structures [3]

报告导读： 原奶价格企稳筑底， 26 年上行确定性较强，肉牛景气周期有望延续，肉奶周 期共振下牧业企业盈利弹性可期。 投资建议： 原奶价格企稳筑底， 26 年上行确定性较强，有望受益于供给端集中扩产影响消退与补栏减少，以及需求端初深加工产能释放；能繁母牛持续去 化，肉牛景气周期有望延续至 27 年。肉奶周期共振下，牧业企业盈利弹性较强。 原奶价格企稳筑底， 26 年上行确定性较强 。 受益于季节性供需错配与新版灭菌乳国标落地， 9 月奶价有所反弹回升，行业供需格局达到初步平衡。双节后 奶价表现坚挺， 11 月延续筑底趋势，整体供需情况好于预期。目前我国原奶自给率逾 70% ， 24 年 进口干乳制品折合生鲜乳约为 1500 万吨，占原奶产 量比例达 37% ；伊利、蒙牛等企业持续发力初深加工产能建设，未来随着国产替代比例提升，原奶需求有望进一步提振。此外， 供给端有望受益于 前期集 中扩产影响消退、泌乳牛补栏减少与部分社会存栏退出， 26 年奶价上行确定性较强。 本公众订阅号(微信号: GTHT RESEARCH )为国泰海通证券股份有限公司(以下简称"国泰海通证券") 研究所依法设立、独立运营的唯一官方订阅 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [61]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has shown a weekly increase of 1.57%, but it has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. - The pig farming industry is currently facing a downward price trend, with an average price of 11.19 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 3.87% [21]. - The poultry farming sector is experiencing a stabilization at the bottom of the market, with yellow feathered chicken prices showing improvement due to better downstream demand [28]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, while dairy cow inventory trends are decreasing [35]. - The planting industry is facing short-term supply and demand pressures, but there is potential for improvement if there are significant reductions in grain production [42]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2991.22 points, with a weekly increase of 1.57%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.40% [13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at market is 129.22 kg, with ongoing losses in the industry. The number of breeding sows is decreasing, indicating accelerated capacity reduction [3][21][22]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - White feathered chicken prices are under pressure, while yellow feathered chicken prices are improving due to better demand and supply contraction [4][28]. 2.3 Livestock - Live cattle prices in Shandong are at 26.80 yuan/kg, with expectations for steady price increases as the market enters a consumption peak [5][35]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are at 2218.57 yuan/ton, with fluctuations expected due to new crop listings and external uncertainties [42][43]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices are stabilizing, while aquaculture prices are showing upward trends, particularly for shrimp and fish products [48][55].

Core Insights - China Modern Dairy Holdings Limited has been awarded the "Best Bond Deal of 2025" by FinanceAsia for its 5-year $350 million senior unsecured sustainable development bond issuance, recognizing its leadership in sustainable finance and impactful industry contributions [1][6] Group 1: Milestones Achieved - The bond issuance is the first sustainable USD bond in the Asia-Pacific food and beverage sector and the first globally in the dairy industry [1][3] - The issuance received a second-party opinion from Moody's and was rated SQS3 (Good), highlighting its best practices in fundraising, project evaluation, and fund management [3] Group 2: Market Performance - Despite a challenging market environment with expectations of global interest rate cuts and currency fluctuations, the issuance was successfully completed with strong investor demand [4][5] - The final order book exceeded $1.2 billion, achieving a subscription rate of 3.4 times, and the issuance size was increased from $300 million to $350 million due to high demand [5] Group 3: Recognition and Impact - The bond issuance set a record for the narrowest spread for a BBB-rated issuer in the Asia-Pacific food and beverage sector in 2025 [6] - The successful issuance not only secured critical funding for the company's green and social responsibility projects but also showcased the leadership of the Chinese dairy industry in the ESG space [6]

优然牧业(09858)涨超9%，截至发稿，涨9.04%，报3.98港元，成交额1.06亿港元。 中信证券认为，2024年以来能繁母牛或去化超10%，国内牛只供应短缺是本轮牛价上涨的主要推动，上 一轮肉牛周期存栏下降11%最终推动育肥牛价格累计上涨超过60%，本轮周期活牛价格提升仍不到 20%，考虑到2026年国内肉牛供给存在下降压力，该行认为肉牛价格仍有上涨空间。11月25日商务部继 续延期进口牛肉进行保障措施立案调查，牛肉进口虽有不确定性但不影响国内周期反转逻辑。综合来 看，继续看好肉牛原奶周期共振，龙头牧业企业利润改善可期。 消息面上，华源证券此前研报指出，优然牧业是全球最大的原奶供应商，业务完整地覆盖乳业上游育 种、草业、饲料、奶牛养殖全产业链，并且各业务均做到行业领先。该行认为，在经历漫长的奶价下行 后，随着供需两端协同改善，原奶价格26H1有望逐步企稳回升。该行预计在奶价上行趋势下，原料奶 销售业务收入有望大幅增厚。此外，肉牛价格上行趋势或将持续，公司利润端有望获益。 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.32%, gaining 83 points to reach 26,011 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.13%. The early trading volume in Hong Kong stocks was HKD 117.2 billion [1]. Paper Industry - Major paper companies are set to increase prices by the end of 2025, with cultural paper prices rising by HKD 200 per ton. Nine Dragons Paper (02689) saw a stock increase of 4.76%, and Lee & Man Paper (02314) rose by 5.98% [1]. Technology Sector - Cambridge Technology (06166) shares increased by 5% following reports that Google has placed additional orders for optical modules to expand its TPU cluster [2]. - Guanghe Communication (00638) shares surged over 8% as Huawei launched a companion robot "Smart Hanhai," and the company entered a strategic partnership with Luobo Intelligent [4]. - Quark AI glasses are set to be released soon, leading to a stock increase of over 4% for Konnate Optical (02276), with institutions optimistic about the company's XR business progress [7]. Healthcare Sector - Laika Pharmaceuticals-B (02105) saw its stock rise over 15%, with a cumulative increase of over 40% this month, following the recent acquisition of a significant BD order for LAE002 [5]. Energy Sector - Harbin Electric (01133) shares rose by over 3% due to the AIDC construction driving substantial electricity demand, indicating significant growth in the gas turbine industry [3]. Agriculture Sector - Youran Dairy (09858) shares increased by over 9%, with institutions optimistic about the cyclical resonance of beef and raw milk, suggesting potential profit improvements for leading agricultural enterprises [8]. Health Sector - Alibaba Health (00241) shares fell by 3.93%, despite a 64.7% year-on-year increase in interim net profit to CNY 1.266 billion [9]. - Chow Tai Fook (01929) shares dropped by over 3%, with net profit for the first half of the fiscal year remaining roughly flat year-on-year, and Daiwa projecting a conservative earnings outlook [10].