Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [80]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 0.91% [13][14]. - The report highlights the ongoing adjustments in the pig farming industry, with a focus on the profitability of leading companies amidst fluctuating prices [22]. - The poultry sector is experiencing price stability despite seasonal demand fluctuations, with potential impacts from overseas avian influenza affecting supply [35]. - The dairy industry is seeing a recovery in milk prices due to reduced supply, while beef prices are expected to rise as the industry undergoes capacity adjustments [39]. - The planting sector is stabilizing, with potential improvements expected if there are significant reductions in grain production due to external uncertainties [47]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2682.22 points, reflecting a weekly increase of 0.91%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. - The top-performing sectors included telecommunications and non-ferrous metals, while agriculture ranked 20th [14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs sold was 129.17 kg, with a slight decrease in price to 14.05 CNY/kg, down 2.90% week-on-week [20][21]. - Leading companies are expected to maintain profitability above 200 CNY per pig in the first half of the year, despite anticipated price pressures in the second half [22]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens was 7.32 CNY/kg, showing a decrease of 0.68% week-on-week, while overall prices remain stable [32][35]. - The report anticipates a recovery in consumer demand as macroeconomic policies adjust, potentially boosting poultry product consumption [35]. 2.3 Dairy Industry - The price of raw milk has stabilized at 2.6 CNY/kg, with expectations for further recovery as supply decreases [39]. - The beef market is showing signs of a new cycle, with rising prices for calves and live cattle [39]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Grain prices are experiencing fluctuations due to tariff policies, with corn prices at 2294.29 CNY/ton and soybeans at 3925.26 CNY/ton [46]. - The planting sector is stabilizing, with potential improvements if significant reductions in grain production occur [47]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices have stabilized, with pig feed at 3.37 CNY/kg and poultry feed at 3.40 CNY/kg [65]. - Aquaculture prices remain steady, with notable increases in shrimp prices [65].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [76]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 0.91% [13][14]. - The report highlights the ongoing adjustments in the pig farming industry, with a focus on the profitability of leading companies amidst fluctuating prices [20][21]. - The poultry sector is experiencing price stabilization despite seasonal demand fluctuations, with potential impacts from avian influenza affecting supply [33][29]. - The dairy and beef sectors are showing signs of recovery, with rising prices for raw milk and beef, indicating a potential upward trend in profitability [37]. - The planting industry is stabilizing, with potential improvements expected if there are significant reductions in grain production due to external factors [44]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2682.22 points, with a weekly increase of 0.91%, outperforming major indices [13][14]. - The top-performing sectors included telecommunications and non-ferrous metals, while agriculture ranked 20th [14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at market was 129.17 kg, with prices showing a slight decline [19][20]. - Leading companies are expected to maintain profitability above 200 CNY per pig in the first half of the year [21]. - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the second half of the year due to supply pressures [21]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - White feather chicken prices decreased to 7.32 CNY/kg, while overall prices remained stable [29][33]. - The report anticipates a recovery in consumer demand as macroeconomic policies adjust [33]. 2.3 Dairy and Beef Industry - Raw milk prices have stabilized at 2.6 CNY/kg, with expectations for further recovery in the second half of 2025 [37]. - The beef market is showing signs of a new cycle, with rising prices for calves and live cattle [37]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Grain prices are experiencing fluctuations due to tariff policies and external uncertainties [44]. - The report emphasizes the importance of increasing grain yields to counteract potential production declines [44]. 2.5 Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices have stabilized, with slight variations in water product prices [64]. - The report notes that prices for various fish species remain steady, with some increases in shrimp prices [64].

牧业即将迎来右侧时刻：一边涨价一边加速去产能 20250604 摘要 环保政策和非洲猪瘟曾系统性影响养殖业周期，2016 年起环保政策清 理散户，2018 年非洲猪瘟导致蛋白质价格上涨，奶牛养殖周期长达三 年，影响市场供应持久。 当前行业完全成本约 3.5 元/公斤，合同内原奶价格约 3-3.1 元/公斤， 社会散奶价格更低，行业整体亏损，散奶价格仅能维持泌乳牛现金成本， 后备牛亏损严重，中小散户养不起后备牛，行业运行不健康。 奶价已接近泌乳牛现金成本线，短期内泌乳牛淘汰有限，供应过剩难缓 解，但后备牛亏损导致配种意愿低，预计两年后市场供应将减少，今年 年底或明年初奶价或开始上涨。 奶业周期通常为八年，目前处于新周期临界点，2023 年中行业亏损并 开始去产能，预计 2025 年底将出现供应拐点，提前淘汰和需求旺季可 能加速拐点到来。 行业产能去化已持续两年多，预计未来奶价上涨将持续至少两年，6-8 月淘汰旺季可能加速淘汰速度，当前时间点临近奶价趋势性上涨。 Q&A 当前畜牧业周期的趋势是什么？为什么奶价可能会在产能去化的同时上涨？ 目前畜牧业正处于一个关键时刻，我们预计未来将出现产能去化与奶价上涨并 存的情 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, indicating a limited expected change in performance compared to the market over the next 3-6 months [72]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a slight increase of 0.05% during the week [12][13]. - The report highlights the ongoing fluctuations in pig prices, with a current average price of 14.61 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.42% [19][30]. - The poultry sector is experiencing price adjustments due to seasonal demand and external factors like avian influenza, with white feather chicken prices currently at 7.40 yuan/kg [30][35]. - The dairy and beef sectors are expected to see a recovery in prices as supply constraints continue, with a potential upward trend in raw milk prices anticipated in the second half of 2025 [4][36]. - The planting sector is stabilizing at the bottom of the market cycle, with potential improvements expected if there are significant reductions in grain production due to external uncertainties [5][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2620.55 points, with a weekly increase of 0.05%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [12][13]. - The top-performing sectors included beauty care and non-bank financials, while the agricultural sector ranked 20th [12][13]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Swine Farming - The average weight of pigs at market is 129.71 kg, with a stable trend compared to previous weeks [19]. - The report indicates a potential downward pressure on pig prices due to increased supply and inventory adjustments [20]. - Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, which are positioned for better profitability amid market fluctuations [20]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - White feather chicken prices have seen a slight decrease, but there is an expectation of recovery as consumer demand improves [30][35]. - The report notes a significant reduction in the breeding stock of parent chickens due to external factors, which may impact future production [35]. 2.3 Livestock - The beef market is showing signs of recovery, with rising prices for calves and live cattle, indicating a potential new cycle in the beef sector [36]. - The dairy sector is expected to stabilize as supply constraints are addressed, with raw milk prices projected to recover in the latter half of 2025 [4][36]. 2.4 Planting Industry Chain - The report discusses the impact of tariff policies on commodity prices, with fluctuations observed in major agricultural products [44]. - The planting sector is stabilizing, with potential improvements if significant reductions in grain production occur [5][44]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices have remained stable, with no significant changes reported in the prices of various fish species [58]. - The report indicates that aquaculture prices are holding steady, suggesting a stable market environment for aquatic products [58].

5月7日，在位于乌兰察布市四子王旗忽鸡图乡小东营村灌木林退化修复现场，上千亩正在返青的柠 条林映入眼帘，补种区域内挖好的树坑整齐排列，20多名工人正忙碌着放苗、填土。 正在植树的四子王旗吉生太镇于家豪村村民刘存喜说："我们植树造林是为了防风固沙，同时每天 还能拿160元，我半个月就收入了2400元。" 四子王旗实施的"以工代赈"模式，实现生态建设与农牧民增收双赢。 在"三北"工程推进过程中，乌兰察布市高度重视"以工代赈"工作，将其作为助力民生与生态建设协 同发展的重要举措。在编制"三北"工程项目可研和作业设计时，明确规定"以工代赈"内容，2025年全市 计划实施"三北"工程林草生态建设324.51万亩，总投资14.6亿元。计划落实"以工代赈"资金占项目总资 金额不少于10%，"以工代赈"资金1.4亿元以上，让农牧民在参与生态建设中切实增加收入。截至4月 份，已累计每日雇工8415人，发放劳务费126.3万元。 同时，该市积极开展"以工代赈"学习和培训活动，提升相关人员业务能力与认知水平，不断扩 大"以工代赈"实施范围，让更多农牧民有机会参与其中。在此基础上，精心建设四子王旗、化德县"以 工代赈"示范点，积极探 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a rating of "Buy" for the company [2][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a stabilization and potential recovery in milk prices in 2025, which could lead to improved performance [6][9]. - The company has a strong backing from major shareholders, including Mengniu Dairy, which holds a 56.36% stake, ensuring a stable demand for its raw milk business [6][18]. - The report highlights the cyclical nature of the company's profitability, heavily influenced by raw milk prices and feed costs [6][7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 13.33 billion, 13.69 billion, and 14.11 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.6%, 2.65%, and 3.06% respectively [5][7]. - The net profit for the same period is forecasted to be 252 million, 432 million, and 727 million CNY, indicating a turnaround from losses in 2024 [5][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -0.179 CNY in 2024 to 0.032 CNY in 2025, and further to 0.092 CNY by 2027 [5][7]. Business Overview - The company primarily focuses on raw milk sales, with a significant portion of its revenue derived from long-term contracts with major clients like Mengniu and New Hope Dairy [6][26]. - The company has expanded its operations to 47 farms across 13 provinces, with a total of 491,200 dairy cows, of which 51.08% are mature cows [6][21]. - New business segments, including feed and breeding solutions, are being developed, contributing to revenue diversification [6][22]. Valuation and Market Comparison - The report employs a comparable company price-to-book (PB) valuation method, suggesting a target price of 1.26 HKD per share for the next year, representing a 12.4% upside from the current price [7][9]. - The average PB ratios for comparable companies are projected to be 0.95, 0.80, and 0.69 for 2025-2027 [7][9]. Key Assumptions - The report assumes a 2% and 0.5% year-on-year growth in raw milk sales volume for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with an average selling price (ASP) increase of -2% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026 [8][9]. - The cost of raw milk is projected to be 2.51 CNY/kg in 2025, with feed costs contributing significantly to overall expenses [8][9].

Group 1 - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025/2026, with current trading at 26.9/11.0 times P/E and 0.9/0.8 times P/B for 2025/2026, raising the target price by 10.0% to HKD 1.43, while maintaining an "outperform" rating [1] - In 2024, the company reported revenue of CNY 13.3 billion, with a 2H24 revenue of CNY 6.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.2%. The cash EBITDA for 2024 is CNY 3 billion, representing a growth of approximately 20% [1] - The company’s milk yield continues to improve, with a slight year-on-year increase of 1.6% to 12.8 tons per cow in 2024, and the herd size is expected to reach 491,000 by the end of 2024 [1] Group 2 - The company benefits from a decrease in feed costs by 16.7% and an improvement in milk yield, leading to a slight expansion of gross margin by 2.8 percentage points in 2024 [2] - Despite the decline in raw milk prices, the company’s cash EBITDA increased by 20% due to improved gross margins [2] - The industry is experiencing a reduction in herd size, with 85-90% of the industry facing losses, and a continued decrease in herd size is expected into 2025 [3] Group 3 - The company is positioned well in the industry downturn, with a projected domestic raw milk supply gap of approximately high single digits to 10% in 2024, and potential stabilization of raw milk prices anticipated in 2025 [3] - The industry is currently at the bottom of the cycle, and it is considered a favorable time for left-side investments [3]