智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，2026年，我国牛肉总进口配额为268.8万吨，其中巴西份额 为110.6万吨，阿根廷为51.1万吨，乌拉圭32.4万吨，澳大利亚为20.5万吨。随着前期肉牛产能去化效应 显现，当前肉牛价格已经步入上行通道。同时，对进口牛肉产品配额制落地将有效缓和进口端的供应压 力，预计26年国内肉牛价格继续周期上涨，增厚牧业公司业绩弹性。此外，原奶行业大包粉库存逐步去 化，行业供需逐步走向平衡，目前原奶供给拐点已现，亦看好2026-27年原奶周期上行。 广发证券主要观点如下： 事件：12月31日，商务部发布公告，裁定进口牛肉数量增加对中国国内产业造成严重损害，决定自2026 年1月1日以"国别配额及配额外加征关税"形式对进口牛肉采取保障措施，保障措施实施期限为3年，对 超过配额的进口牛肉征收55%的额外关税，配额将逐年增加。 2024年进口牛肉占总供应27%，配额制落地缓和进口冲击 根据海关总署及国家统计局数据，2024年，我国牛肉进口量为287万吨，同比增长5.0%，其中巴西、阿 根廷、乌拉圭、澳大利亚进口量分别134万吨、59万吨、24万吨、21万吨，占比分别46.6%、20.6 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the new import beef quota system will alleviate domestic supply pressure, leading to an increase in domestic beef prices and enhancing the profits of livestock companies, particularly recommending YouRan Agriculture (09858) [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce announced that starting from January 1, 2026, a safeguard measure will be implemented for imported beef in the form of "country-specific quotas and additional tariffs," with a 55% extra tariff on quantities exceeding the quota, lasting for three years [2] Group 3 - The safeguard measures were decided based on an investigation that found a causal relationship between the increase in imported beef and serious damage to the domestic industry, with a quota of 2.688 million tons for 2026, including specific allocations for Brazil (1.106 million tons), Argentina (0.511 million tons), Uruguay (0.324 million tons), and Australia (0.205 million tons) [3] Group 4 - In 2024, China's beef import volume is projected to be 2.87 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, with Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Australia accounting for 46.6%, 20.6%, 8.4%, and 7.4% of imports respectively; domestic beef production is expected to be 7.79 million tons, indicating that imports will exceed 30% of domestic production [4] - The tightening supply due to the reduction of breeding cows since 2025 has driven beef prices up, with the price recorded at 53.5 yuan/kg on December 26, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.4%; the quota system is expected to further optimize domestic supply and benefit domestic beef prices [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the new import beef quota system will alleviate domestic supply pressure, and combined with the ongoing reduction of domestic cattle, beef prices in China are expected to continue rising, directly benefiting livestock companies such as YouRan Agriculture [1][2] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce announced that starting January 1, 2026, a safeguard measure will be implemented for imported beef in the form of "country-specific quotas and additional tariffs," with a 55% additional tariff on quantities exceeding the quota, lasting for three years [2][3] Group 3 - The safeguard measure is a response to the significant increase in imported beef, which has caused serious harm to the domestic industry, with the quota for 2026 set at 2.688 million tons, including specific allocations for Brazil (1.106 million tons), Argentina (0.511 million tons), Uruguay (0.324 million tons), and Australia (0.205 million tons) [3] Group 4 - In 2024, China's beef import volume is projected to be 2.87 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, with Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Australia accounting for 46.6%, 20.6%, 8.4%, and 7.4% of imports respectively; the domestic beef production is estimated at 7.79 million tons, indicating that imports exceed domestic production by over 30% [4] - The ongoing reduction of breeding cows since 2025 has tightened supply, pushing beef prices upward, with the price recorded at 53.5 yuan/kg on December 26, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.4%; the quota system is expected to further optimize domestic supply and positively impact beef prices [4]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the domestic beef industry due to the implementation of import beef quota and additional tariffs, recommending a focus on YouRan Agriculture (9858.HK) [5]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Commerce announced that starting January 1, 2026, import beef will be subject to safeguard measures, including country-specific quotas and an additional 55% tariff on quantities exceeding the quota, with a three-year implementation period [3]. - The quota for imported beef in 2026 is set at 2.688 million tons, with Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Australia having specific allocations [3]. - In 2024, China's beef imports were 2.87 million tons, accounting for over 30% of domestic production, indicating a high reliance on imported beef [4]. Summary by Sections Import Quota and Tariffs - The safeguard measures are a response to the significant increase in imported beef, which has caused serious damage to the domestic industry [3]. - The quota for 2026 includes 1.106 million tons from Brazil, 0.511 million tons from Argentina, 0.324 million tons from Uruguay, and 0.205 million tons from Australia [3]. Domestic Beef Market Impact - The high proportion of imported beef and the new quota system are expected to benefit domestic beef prices by alleviating supply pressure [4]. - As of December 26, 2025, domestic beef prices were 53.5 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.4% [4]. - The ongoing reduction of breeding cattle since 2025 is tightening supply, further supporting price increases [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes that the import quota system will reduce supply pressure and, combined with the ongoing reduction of breeding cattle, is likely to lead to continued price increases, positively impacting the profits of livestock companies [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the dairy industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the stabilization of raw milk prices and the expected upward trend in 2026 are driven by the reduction in supply-side expansion and decreased breeding stock, alongside the release of processing capacity on the demand side. The domestic beef demand is anticipated to be boosted by the implementation of import beef safeguard policies, leading to a sustained upward cycle in the beef industry [2][4]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the dairy industry will benefit from the easing of supply-side pressures and a reduction in breeding stock, with a strong likelihood of an upward trend in profitability for leading companies such as YouRan Dairy and Modern Farming [4][7]. Import Beef Safeguard Measures - The report details that starting January 1, 2026, a 55% tariff will be imposed on beef imports outside of the quota, with a nearly 6% reduction in quotas for major supplying countries. This policy is expected to enhance domestic beef demand and support the beef industry's growth cycle [2][4]. Beef Import Data - In 2024, the total beef import volume was 2.87 million tons, with Brazil, Argentina, and Australia being the largest suppliers, accounting for over 93% of imports. The report notes a projected decrease of 5.7% in quotas for 2026 compared to the previous 12 months, with significant reductions for Brazil and Australia [6][4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for key companies, with YouRan Dairy expected to achieve an EPS of 0.33 yuan in 2026, and Modern Farming projected to reach 0.05 yuan. The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for these companies are also discussed, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [7].

Core Insights - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, anticipating a rebound in the meat and dairy cycles, benefiting industries related to dairy and beef cattle [1][4] - The monthly recommended stock portfolio includes leading companies in various segments, such as YouRan Agriculture, Modern Farming, and Muyuan Foods, indicating a focus on industry leaders poised for recovery [1][3] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is expected to experience a significant reversal, with a focus on beef and dairy cattle. The domestic beef production capacity is anticipated to decrease to levels seen during the 2019 pig cycle, with prices expected to rise until 2028 [14] - The report highlights that the domestic raw milk price has been in decline for nearly four years, leading to production capacity pressures. The "meat and milk ratio" has reached historical highs, which may accelerate the culling of dairy cows [14][36] - Recommended companies in the livestock sector include YouRan Agriculture and Modern Farming, which are expected to benefit from improving raw milk prices and the upward trend in beef prices [14][17] Swine Sector - The swine sector is characterized by a gradual recovery in prices, with the average price of live pigs at 12.67 yuan/kg, reflecting a 13% month-on-month increase [20] - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies in the swine industry, such as Huazhong Holdings and Muyuan Foods, which are expected to see significant cash flow improvements and higher dividend returns due to their low-cost advantages [15][19] - The overall industry is projected to stabilize, with a focus on valuation recovery for leading firms as the market adjusts to supply and demand dynamics [20][21] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is witnessing a slight increase in supply, with expectations for demand recovery. The price of broiler chickens has shown a month-on-month increase of 9% [22] - The report notes that the structure of parent stock is changing, which may impact actual supply growth. However, demand is expected to benefit from domestic stimulus policies and macroeconomic improvements [22][28] - Key companies in the poultry sector include Lihua Food and Shengnong Development, which are positioned to maintain good profitability amid these changes [18][22] Pet Industry - The pet industry is identified as a promising consumer segment, with domestic brands rapidly gaining market share. The emotional consumption trend is expected to drive long-term growth in this sector [16][18] - Recommended companies include Guibao Pet, which is focusing on product upgrades and direct sales transformation to capture market opportunities [16][18] Feed and Grain Sector - The feed sector is benefiting from deeper industrialization in livestock farming, with leading companies expected to widen their competitive advantages through technology and service [1][3] - The report indicates that corn prices are at a historical low, with strong support expected from cost structures, while soybean meal prices are also at low valuations, awaiting a cyclical rebound [18][21]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月04日 农林牧渔 2026 年 1 月投资策略 优于大市 看好肉奶周期共振反转，奶牛及肉牛相关产业受益 月度重点推荐组合：优然牧业（牧业大周期受益龙头）、现代牧业（国内牧 业龙头企业）、牧原股份（生猪养殖龙头）、德康农牧（创新农户合作模式 的生猪养殖标的）、立华股份（低成本黄鸡与生猪养殖标的）。 各细分板块推荐逻辑：1）肉牛及原奶：牧业大周期反转预计在即，看好国 内肉奶景气共振上行，牧业公司业绩有望迎来高弹性修复。2）生猪：头部 企业现金流快速好转，并有望转型为红利标的，在全行业产能收缩的背景下， 龙头的成本优势有望明显提高，强者恒强。3）宠物：宠物作为新消费优质 赛道，长期景气受益人口趋势，且国内自主品牌正快速崛起，头部宠食标的 中期业绩增长确定性仍较强。4）饲料：畜禽养殖工业化加深，产业分工明 确，饲料龙头凭借技术和服务优势，有望进一步拉大竞争优势。5）禽：供 给波动幅度有限，行情有望随需求复苏，龙头企业凭借单位超额收益优势有 望实现更高现金流分红回报。 农产品价格跟踪：1）生猪：12 月末生猪 12.67 元/公斤，月环比上涨 13%， 7kg 仔猪价格约 231.67 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the company maintains a "buy" rating for Modern Dairy (01117), expecting EPS of 0.05 and 0.19 yuan per share for 2026 and 2027 respectively, benefiting from the reversal of the meat and milk cycle [1] - The company is progressing with the acquisition of China Shengmu, having signed an irrevocable voting proxy agreement on October 30, and plans to acquire 1.28% of Shengmu shares for 37.52 million HKD, which will trigger a mandatory general offer [2] - The acquisition will integrate upstream resources from the major shareholder Mengniu, enhancing scale effects, with the total herd size expected to exceed 610,000 heads and raw milk production to surpass 4 million tons [3] Group 2 - The dairy cow inventory is accelerating its reduction due to ongoing financial pressures and a decrease in heifer restocking, with the impact expected to manifest monthly [4] - The Ministry of Commerce has announced preliminary rulings on anti-subsidy investigations against dairy products from the EU, imposing temporary anti-subsidy tax guarantees, which is expected to accelerate domestic substitution in the dairy processing industry [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Cathay Pacific Haitong maintains a "buy" rating for Modern Dairy (01117), expecting EPS of 0.05 and 0.19 HKD per share for 2026 and 2027 respectively, benefiting from the reversal of the meat and milk cycle [1] - The company is progressing with the acquisition of China Shengmu, having signed an irrevocable voting proxy agreement on October 30, and plans to acquire 1.28% of shares for 37.52 million HKD, which will trigger a mandatory general offer [2] - The acquisition will integrate upstream resources from the major shareholder Mengniu, enhancing scale effects, with the total herd size expected to exceed 610,000 heads and raw milk production to surpass 4 million tons [3] Group 2 - The dairy cow inventory is accelerating its reduction due to ongoing financial pressures and a decrease in heifer restocking, with the impact expected to manifest monthly [4] - The Ministry of Commerce has announced preliminary rulings on anti-subsidy investigations against dairy products from the EU, imposing temporary anti-subsidy tax guarantees starting December 23, which is expected to accelerate domestic substitution in the dairy processing industry [4]

Group 1 - The cleanroom engineering sector has seen significant stock price increases, with key players like Yaxing Integration rising by 74% and Shenghui Integration by 60%, driven by the structural changes in capital expenditure due to AI infrastructure development [8] - The demand for cleanroom construction is expected to surge due to the explosive growth in overseas AI computing power, making cleanroom construction a critical bottleneck for global AI capacity expansion [8] - Companies like Shenghui Integration and Yaxing Integration benefit from their unique position as the only overseas operating platforms for their Taiwanese parent companies, sharing technology and customer resources [8] Group 2 - Huatu Shanding has transformed its focus to examination training, with 2024 revenue projected to surpass that of Zhonggong Education, becoming the industry leader [9][10] - The public examination boom is driving demand in the examination training sector, with the number of candidates for the national examination expected to increase by 9% in 2026, surpassing graduate school entrance exams for the first time [9] - The company has a relatively lighter historical burden compared to competitors, allowing it to seize opportunities in the post-agreement class era, with revenue expected to exceed that of Zhonggong Education in 2024 [10] Group 3 - The "Exam Direct Train" initiative aims to enhance pass rates significantly through immersive teaching methods and unlimited study opportunities, targeting the underserved lower-tier markets [11] - Strategic partnerships, such as the one with Fenbi, are expected to leverage resources and improve the competitive landscape in the examination training industry [11] - The company forecasts net profits of 3.5 billion, 4.3 billion, and 5.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting strong growth potential and a favorable market position [12]