| | | | | | 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/8/1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | 2025/7/24 | | 2025/7/30 | | 2025/7/31 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/7/24 | 2025/7/30 | | 2025/7/31 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 | 1250.0 5mm大 板 | 1301.0 | 1284.0 | 34.0 | -17.0 | FG09合约 | 1307.0 | 1191.0 | 1117.0 | -190.0 | -74.0 | | 沙河长城 | 1258.0 5mm大板 | 1233.0 | 1233.0 | -25.0 | 0.0 | FG01合约 | 1402.0 | 1320.0 | 1224.0 | -178.0 | -96.0 | | 沙河5mm大 | 1241.0 板低价 | 1233.0 ...

| 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/7/31 | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/7/30 周度变化 日度变化 | 2025/7/23 | 2025/7/29 | | | | | 2025/7/23 | 2025/7/29 | | 2025/7/30 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1240.0 | 1301.0 | 1301.0 | 61.0 | 0.0 | FG09合约 | 1211.0 | 1188.0 | 1191.0 | -20.0 | 3.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1248.0 | 1280.0 | 1233.0 | -15.0 | -47.0 | FG01合约 | 1309.0 | 1313.0 | 1320.0 | 11.0 | 7.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板低 ...

| | | | | | 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/7/30 | | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | 2025/7/22 | 2025/7/28 | | 2025/7/29 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/7/22 | 2025/7/28 | | 2025/7/29 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1220.0 | 1301.0 | 1301.0 | 81.0 | 0.0 | FG09合约 | 1249.0 | 1223.0 | 1188.0 | -61.0 | -35.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1220.0 | 1280.0 | 1280.0 | 60.0 | 0.0 | FG01合约 | 1342.0 | 1300.0 | 1313.0 | -29.0 | 13.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板 ...

| | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/7/21 | | 2025/7/25 | | 2025/7/28 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/7/21 | 2025/7/25 | | 2025/7/28 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河重碱 | 1280.0 | 1430.0 | 1300.0 | 20.0 | -130.0 | SA05合 约 | 1390.0 | 1539.0 | 1417.0 | 27.0 | -122.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1200.0 | 1340.0 | 1280.0 | 80.0 | -60.0 | SA01合约 | 1354.0 | 1516.0 | 1387.0 | 33.0 | -129.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1400.0 | 1450.0 | 1450.0 | 50.0 | 0.0 | SA09合约 | 1295.0 | 1440.0 | 1316.0 | 21.0 | -1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The supply of soda ash is expected to remain abundant, demand will continue to decline, and prices will remain under pressure. It's recommended to consider buying put options for the soda ash main contract [2] - The probability of a correction in the glass market has increased. Although the fundamentals of glass have improved, the terminal demand has not improved. It's advisable to wait and see for now [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the soda ash main contract was 1316 yuan/ton, down 124 yuan; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1223 yuan/ton, down 139 yuan [2] - The net position of the top 20 soda ash traders was -290077, an increase of 8272; the net position of the top 20 glass traders was -176305, an increase of 8320 [2] - The soda ash 9 - 1 contract spread was -76 yuan, an increase of 1 yuan; the glass 9 - 1 contract spread was -64 yuan, an increase of 31 yuan [2] - The soda ash basis was -50 yuan/ton, an increase of 38 yuan; the glass basis was -150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of North China heavy soda ash was 1390 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan; the price of Central China heavy soda ash was 1325 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [2] - The price of East China light soda ash was 1250 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan; the price of Central China light soda ash was 1250 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan [2] - The price of Shahe glass sheets was 1212 yuan/ton, an increase of 48 yuan; the price of Central China glass sheets was 1230 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The operating rate of soda ash plants was 83.02%, a decrease of 1.08 percentage points; the operating rate of float glass enterprises was 75%, a decrease of 0.34 percentage points [2] - The in - production capacity of glass was 15.89 million tons/year, an increase of 0.11 million tons; the number of in - production glass production lines was 223, unchanged [2] - The inventory of soda ash enterprises was 178.36 million tons, a decrease of 8.1 million tons; the inventory of glass enterprises was 6189.6 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 304.3 million heavy boxes [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of new construction area in the real estate industry was 30364.32 million square meters, an increase of 7180.71 million square meters; the cumulative value of completed area was 22566.61 million square meters, an increase of 4181.47 million square meters [2] Industry News - The State Council deployed measures to gradually implement free preschool education [2] - The CSRC aimed to consolidate the market's stable and positive trend and improve the market - stabilizing mechanism [2] - The CSRC approved the registration of linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene monthly average price futures [2] - The CSRC solicited public opinions on the revised "Corporate Governance Guidelines for Listed Companies" [2] - From January to June, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 34365.0 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8% [2] - In the first half of 2025, the stamp duty revenue was 1953 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 19.7%; the securities trading stamp duty was 785 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 54.1% [2]

【产业库存】本周全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6189.6万重箱，环比下降304.3万重箱或4.69%，同比减少7.74%，连 降5周创今年2月份以来新低，折库存天数26.6天，较上期下降1.3天，尤其库存前期累积明显的华中地区，降幅最为 明显，进一步提振市场情绪。 【成本利润】成本方面，石油焦制、煤炭制、天然气制玻璃成本分别为1052、1008、1438元/吨，环比变化分别为-1 、+4、-4元/吨；生产利润分别为53.4、128.9、-168.4元/吨，环比变化分别为+58.18、+7.4、+10.54元/吨。 玻璃：政策预期热度降温，价格波动放大 纯碱：交易所发布风险函，警惕价格回调 分析师：何慧 咨询账号：Z0011420 中辉期货研究院 2025.07.25 能源化工团队 郭建锋 F03126846 何 慧 Z0011420 郭艳鹏 F03104066 李 倩 F03134406 玻璃：政策预期热度降温，价格波动放大 【供应端】本周浮法玻璃行业开工率为75%，周环比下降0.34个百分点；产能利用率为79.48%，周环比增加0.57%， 日产量为15.9万吨，周环比小幅增加0.73%；周产量110.81万 ...

| 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/7/28 | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/7/25 周度变化 日度变化 | 2025/7/18 | 2025/7/24 | | | | | 2025/7/18 | 2025/7/24 | | 2025/7/25 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1160.0 | 1250.0 | 1301.0 | 141.0 | 51.0 | FG09合约 | 1081.0 | 1307.0 | 1362.0 | 281.0 | 55.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1164.0 | 1258.0 | 1297.0 | 133.0 | 39.0 | FG01合约 | 1165.0 | 1402.0 | 1426.0 | 261.0 | 24.0 | | 沙河5mm ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Viewpoints - The anti - involution expectation may fluctuate between continuation and cooling, and market sentiment is also volatile. The futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate between reality and expectation. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and short - term sentiment changes. As August approaches, the 09 contract will follow the delivery logic [2]. - For glass, the supply end daily melting volume has slightly increased, and there are no unexpected situations. The cumulative apparent demand has declined by 8%, but it has improved month - on - month. The market is in a weak balance. The manufacturer's inventory has decreased, while the middle - stream inventory has increased rapidly, and the overall social inventory remains high [2]. - For soda ash, the overall supply is stable, with a weekly output of 72.38 tons (a decrease of 0.94 tons compared to the previous week). There are minor maintenance expectations in August, and the supply is expected to remain unchanged. The anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity expectations continue, but the actual impact awaits further policy guidance. The inventory is at a historical high, and the market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Core Viewpoints - **Supply**: The current daily melting volume of glass is 159,000 tons. The supply end has slightly increased, and there are no unexpected changes. From an environmental perspective, the daily melting volume of petroleum coke and coal - gas production lines accounts for 17% and 12% respectively; from the kiln age perspective, the daily melting volume of glass production lines in operation for more than 10 years accounts for about 15% [1]. - **Inventory**: The in - factory glass inventory is 61.896 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 3.043 million heavy boxes compared to the previous week, a decrease of 4.69% week - on - week and 7.74% year - on - year. The inventory days are 26.6 days, a decrease of 1.3 days compared to the previous period. The middle - stream inventory in Shahe has increased rapidly, and under the positive feedback, the manufacturer's inventory has continuously decreased [1]. - **Profit**: According to Longzhong data, the profits of glass production lines using different processes are - 168 yuan for natural gas, + 129 yuan for coal - gas, and + 53 yuan for petroleum coke [1]. - **Demand**: As of mid - July, the average order days of deep - processing sample enterprises are 9.3 days, a decrease of 2.1% week - on - week and 7% year - on - year. The deep - processing enterprises' original glass inventory is 10.4 days, an increase of 13% week - on - week and year - on - year. The average production and sales rate in each region this week is 123, a significant increase compared to the previous week. The spot price in Hubei has continued to rise [1]. Soda Ash Core Viewpoints - **Supply**: The overall supply is stable, with a weekly output of 72.38 tons (a decrease of 0.94 tons compared to the previous week, including a decrease of 0.58 tons in heavy soda ash and 0.36 tons in light soda ash). There are minor maintenance expectations in August, and the supply is expected to remain unchanged. The impact of short - term output fluctuations is weakening. The anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity expectations continue, but the actual impact awaits further policy guidance [4]. - **Inventory**: The soda ash factory inventory is 1.8646 million tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons compared to the previous week (a decrease of 40,800 tons in light soda ash and 200 tons in heavy soda ash). The delivery warehouse inventory is 305,000 tons (an increase of 58,400 tons). The total inventory of the factory and the delivery warehouse is 2.1696 million tons, an increase of 17,400 tons compared to the previous week, and the inventory is still accumulating at a high level [4]. - **Profit**: According to Longzhong data, the theoretical profit of the dual - ton of soda ash produced by the combined soda process is + 18 yuan/ton, and that of the ammonia - soda process is - 35 yuan/ton [4]. - **Demand**: The current daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is 87,700 tons and continues to decline slowly. The inventory of photovoltaic finished products has started to decrease, and its sustainability needs to be observed. The float glass end remains stable overall [4]. Glass Industry Chain Data - **Futures Market**: Provides seasonal data on glass futures' main contract closing price, trading volume, and warehouse receipt quantity [7][8]. - **Spot Market**: Includes seasonal data on the price of Shahe delivery products, the market price of 5mm float glass in different regions, regional price differences, and size - plate price differences [10][18]. - **Month - to - Month and Basis**: Presents seasonal data on glass futures' month - to - month spreads and basis for different contracts in different regions [20][25]. - **Supply**: Contains seasonal data on the production, loss, start - up rate, and production line start - up number of float glass [33][35]. - **Production and Sales**: Offers seasonal data on the glass production - sales rate in different regions [39]. - **Deep - Processing**: Provides seasonal data on the original glass inventory days, order days, and their ratios and differences in glass deep - processing enterprises [44]. - **Cost and Profit**: Presents seasonal data on the production cost and profit of float glass using different processes [50]. - **Import and Export**: Contains seasonal data on the import and export volume of float glass [53]. - **Statistics Bureau Data**: Provides seasonal data on the monthly output of flat glass, hollow glass, tempered glass, and laminated glass [56]. - **Inventory**: Includes seasonal data on the inventory of float glass manufacturers, average available inventory days, and inventory in different regions and in Shahe [60][62]. - **Apparent Demand**: Presents seasonal data on the weekly and monthly apparent demand of float glass, with and without imports and exports [73]. Soda Ash Industry Chain Data - **Futures Market**: Provides seasonal data on the main contract closing price, trading volume, and warehouse receipt quantity of soda ash futures [78]. - **Spot Market**: Includes seasonal data on the market price of heavy and light soda ash in different regions and price differences between heavy and light soda ash in different regions [82][92]. - **Month - to - Month and Basis**: Presents seasonal data on soda ash futures' month - to - month spreads and basis for different contracts in different regions [96][100]. - **Supply**: Contains seasonal data on the weekly and monthly production, heavy - quality rate, capacity utilization rate, and production of heavy and light soda ash in different regions [104][124]. - **Cost and Profit**: Presents seasonal data on the production cost and profit of light soda ash using different processes [126]. - **Import and Export**: Contains seasonal data on the monthly import, export, and net export volume of soda ash [135]. - **Inventory**: Includes seasonal data on the factory inventory, average available inventory days, delivery warehouse inventory, and inventory in different regions of soda ash [138]. - **Apparent Demand**: Presents seasonal data on the weekly and monthly apparent demand of soda ash, light soda ash, and heavy soda ash, with and without imports and exports, as well as the raw material inventory days of glass factories and the pending order days of soda ash enterprises [144][151]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: Provides seasonal data on the daily melting volume, loss volume, and inventory of photovoltaic glass, as well as the combined daily melting volume and loss volume of float and photovoltaic glass [155][158].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Glass market is expected to experience a phased decline. Despite short - term factors boosting the market, weak basis, delivery factors, and high inventory will lead to a market downturn, though the downside space at low levels is limited [2]. - The soda ash market is also likely to have a phased decline. The futures market's previous short - squeeze and subsequent short - covering rally may not be sustainable. High production, high inventory, and large delivery pressure on certain contracts will exert downward pressure on the market [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Supply - As of July 24, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines (200,000 tons/day) after excluding zombie lines, with 222 in operation and 74 cold - repaired. The daily output of float glass was 159,000 tons, up 0.73% from July 17. The daily loss of float glass was 41,050 tons, down 2.73% month - on - month [2]. - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired lines was 11,680 tons/day, and the total daily melting volume of ignited lines was 11,510 tons/day. There are also potential new ignition lines with a total daily melting volume of 14,000 tons/day and potential old - line复产 lines with a total daily melting volume of 8,130 tons. Potential cold - repair lines have a total daily melting volume of 6,900 tons/day [8][9][10]. Demand - As of July 15, 2025, the average order days of deep - processing sample enterprises nationwide was 9.3 days, down 2.1% month - on - month and 7.0% year - on - year. In mid - July, most deep - processing enterprises reported that orders remained at the previous level, with no signs of improvement, and a few reported a further decline in orders [2]. Inventory - As of July 24, 2025, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises nationwide was 61.896 million heavy cases, down 3.043 million heavy cases (4.69%) month - on - month and 7.74% year - on - year. The inventory days were 26.6 days, 1.3 days less than the previous period. Markets in North China, East China, Central China, and South China all saw significant inventory declines [2]. Price and Profit - This week, most glass prices rose. In Hubei and Shahe, prices increased by 40 yuan/ton. The prices in Shahe were around 1,240 - 1,290 yuan/ton, in Central China's Hubei area around 1,160 - 1,260 yuan/ton, and in East China's Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas around 1,160 - 1,400 yuan/ton. The profit from petroleum coke was about 53 yuan/ton, and the profit from natural gas and coal fuel was about - 168 - 128 yuan/ton [19][21][27]. Inventory and Downstream Start - up - Recently, glass sales have been good, and the market inventory has declined significantly. The de - stocking speed is comparable to that from September to October 2024, and the current futures increase is also similar. However, terminal orders have not improved significantly [33][34]. Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - This week, the overall trading in the domestic photovoltaic glass market improved, and the inventory decreased slowly. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels was 10 - 11 yuan/square meter, and that of 3.2mm coated panels was 18 - 19 yuan/square meter, both remaining unchanged from last week [42][44]. Capacity and Inventory - Under the influence of the anti - involution policy, recent supply has decreased, trading has improved, and inventory has declined. As of the end of July, the actual capacity was about 90,500 tons/day, with 414 production lines in operation. The sample inventory days were about 32.59 days, down 9.08% month - on - month [46][47][51]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - The start - up of soda ash production changed little, and the potential maintenance volume was currently small. The capacity utilization rate was 83%, down from 84.1% last week. The weekly output of heavy soda ash reached 408,900 tons [54][56][57]. Inventory - The inventory was about 1.865 million tons. Light soda ash inventory was 74,200 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 1.123 million tons. A large amount of inventory was transferred to the delivery warehouse [58][59]. Price and Profit - The nominal price in Shahe and Hubei was around 1,300 - 1,450 yuan/ton. The spot market price increased by 100 - 150 yuan/ton due to the hot futures - related spot procurement. The profit from the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) was 17 yuan/ton, and the profit from the ammonia - alkali method in North China was - 35 yuan/ton [64][68][74]. Basis and Spread - High production and high inventory put pressure on near - term contracts. The basis was weak, and the spread faced significant pressure. The futures market rebounded following the glass market, causing the basis to weaken continuously [70][73].

Core Insights - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing price fluctuations, with heavy soda ash prices ranging from 80 to 1280 RMB/ton and light soda ash prices from 20 to 1100 RMB/ton, indicating a price gap of 82 RMB/ton [1] - As of July 21, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.8842 million tons, a decrease of 21,400 tons from the previous week, representing a decline of 1.12% [1] - The market is stabilizing, with some companies slightly increasing prices by 20 to 30 RMB/ton, while overall demand remains weak, primarily driven by low-price procurement [1] Inventory and Supply - The inventory consists of 757,100 tons of light soda ash (down 25,900 tons) and 1,127,100 tons of heavy soda ash (up 4,500 tons) [1] - Supply is showing a slight decrease due to equipment maintenance at Jiangsu Shilian and Xuzhou Fengcheng, while some companies are increasing their production loads [1] - Weekly supply of soda ash is reported at 733,000 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons from the previous week, as some companies resume production [1] Demand and Market Dynamics - The demand side is facing challenges, particularly in the photovoltaic glass sector, which is experiencing significant losses, leading to potential production halts [1] - The current inventory of soda ash has increased by 1.1% to 1.906 million tons, indicating a slowing accumulation rate but a persistent upward trend [1] - The market is witnessing a strong upward movement in prices, with manufacturers attempting to raise prices amid a backdrop of macroeconomic stability [1] Trading Strategies - The trading strategy is primarily driven by macroeconomic logic, with a short-term bullish outlook, but attention is needed on emerging industrial contradictions and logical transitions [1] - Arbitrage suggestions include going long on glass and short on soda ash, while options strategies recommend a wait-and-see approach [1]