| 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/9/15 | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/9/12 周度变化 日度变化 | 2025/9/5 | 2025/9/11 | | | | | 2025/9/5 | 2025/9/11 | | 2025/9/12 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1130.0 | 1144.0 | 1144.0 | 14.0 | 0.0 | FG09合约 | 991.0 | 989.0 | 968.0 | -23.0 | -21.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1113.0 | 1147.0 | 1147.0 | 34.0 | 0.0 | FG01合约 | 1189.0 | 1185.0 | 1180.0 | -9.0 | -5.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板低价 | 1 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 玻璃纯碱周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 日期：2025年9月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周玻璃观点：震荡思路 | | 截至20250911，国内玻璃生产线在剔除僵尸产线后共计296条(20万吨/日），其中在产225条，冷修停产71条。全国浮法玻璃日产量为16.02 | | --- | --- | | 供应 | 万吨，比4日+0.38%。 周内无点火，放水浮法产线。凯里市凯荣玻璃有限公司设计产能600吨/日原产绿玻，周内转产欧洲灰；株洲醴陵旗滨玻璃有限公司三线500 | | | 吨/日海洋蓝周内正色；河南省中联玻璃有限责任公司一线600吨/日原产殴灰，周内改产黑玻。 | | | 截至20250901，全国深加工样本企业订单天数均值10.4天，环比+7.8%，同比+8.3%。8月下旬至今，全国各大区多数深加工订单反馈环比未有 | | 需求 | 明显变化，多数排单3-10天居多，部分区域原片价格上移情况下，本地钢化中空产品价格持续稳定，行业整 ...

纯碱现货：重碱河北交割库现货报价在1170左右，送到沙河1200左右 纯碱产业：工厂库存下行，交割库存累积，整体持平 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 河北鑫利4.8mm（折5mm） 2022 2023 2024 2025 (600) (400) (200) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 华北玻璃生产利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1147 1159 1147 1030 989 1093 1185 1282 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 沙河德金 沙河安全 沙河低价 湖北低价 09合约 11合约 01合约 05合约 玻璃价格结构 今日(9/11） 昨日(9/10） 一周前(9/4） 一月前(8/11） (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 华南玻璃利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3, ...

| | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025/9/3 | 2025/9/9 | | 2025/9/10 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/9/3 | 2025/9/9 | | 2025/9/10 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河重碱 | 1180.0 | 1180.0 | 1180.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SA05合 约 | 1357.0 | 1358.0 | 1353.0 | -4.0 | -5.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1160.0 | 1190.0 | 1190.0 | 30.0 | 0.0 | S A0 1合 约 | 1276.0 | 1278.0 | 1281.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1320.0 | 1320.0 | 1320.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | S A0 9合 约 | 1158.0 | 1159.0 | 1162.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | | 青 海 重 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views - The core contradiction lies in the conflict between macro - expectations and industrial logic. There are disagreements in far - month pricing without a clear direction, and the destocking ability of the mid - stream during the peak season needs to be observed [2] - For glass, upstream and mid - stream inventories are high, and the phased restocking ability is weak. The supply - side daily melting is around 160,000 tons with a slight increase expectation. The cumulative apparent demand from January to August is estimated to decline by 6 - 7%, and the spot market is in a state from weak balance to weak surplus [2][3] - For纯碱, the medium - and long - term supply is expected to remain high. Normal maintenance continues, and in the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the commissioning of Yuangxing Phase II. The fundamentals of photovoltaic glass have improved, and the inventory has been reduced to a relatively low level. The overall rigid demand for纯碱 is stable, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged [3] Group 3: Price Forecast - The monthly price range of glass is predicted to be 1000 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 26.34% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 69.2%. The monthly price range of纯碱 is predicted to be 1100 - 1500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.83% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 18.7% [1] Group 4: Hedging Strategies Glass - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, sell FG2601 futures and FG601C1400 call options to lock in profits and reduce costs. The hedging ratio is 50%, with a recommended entry range of 1400 for futures and 40 - 50 for options [1] - For procurement management with low regular inventory, buy FG2601 futures and sell FG601P1100 put options to lock in procurement costs. The hedging ratio is 50%, with a recommended entry range of 1100 - 1150 for futures and 50 - 60 for options [1] 纯碱 - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, sell SA2601 futures and SA601C1500 call options to lock in profits and reduce costs. The hedging ratio is 50%, with a recommended entry range of 1550 - 1600 for futures and 50 - 60 for options [1] - For procurement management with low regular inventory, buy SA2601 futures and sell SA601P1200 put options to lock in procurement costs. The hedging ratio is 50%, with a recommended entry range of 1200 - 1250 for futures and 40 - 50 for options [1] Group 5: Market Price and Spread Glass - On September 10, 2025, the price of the glass 05 contract was 1279, down 10 (- 0.78%) from the previous day; the 09 contract was 995, down 35 (- 3.4%); the 01 contract was 1181, down 11 (- 0.92%) [4] - The average price of glass in the Shahe area on September 10, 2025, was 1162.4, down 3.6 from the previous day [5] 纯碱 - On September 10, 2025, the price of the 纯碱 05 contract was 1353, down 5 (- 0.37%) from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1162, up 3 (0.26%); the 01 contract was 1281, up 3 (0.23%) [6] - The market price of heavy 纯碱 in the Shahe area on September 10, 2025, was 1186, up 3 from the previous day [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass and soda ash market continues to be weak. For soda ash, the supply is high after the traditional summer inspection season, and the demand remains at a rigid level. It is recommended to short at high levels. For glass, the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. Short - term observation is advised, and mid - term attention should be paid to the actual demand in the peak season [1]. - **Log**: The log fundamentals are good, with low inventory, continuous destocking, and strong demand. As the seasonal peak season is approaching, the price has strong support at the bottom. It is recommended to go long at low levels [2]. - **Polysilicon**: In the short term, the market is more focused on the expectation of policy implementation in September, and the price is easy to rise and hard to fall. The supply reduction in September is not obvious, and there may be a slight inventory build - up. The price is more affected by policy expectations and has high volatility risk [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The cost of industrial silicon is expected to rise, and there are signs of capacity clearance. The supply - demand relationship was in a tight balance in August. It is recommended to go long at low levels, with the price fluctuating between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Natural Rubber**: The supply is affected by seasonal climate, with strong upward pressure on raw material prices and inventory destocking. The demand is expected to improve as enterprises resume production, but the increase in production may be limited. The price of the 01 contract is expected to be in the range of 15000 - 16500 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass prices in North China, Central China, and some futures contracts increased, while soda ash prices were mostly stable. The 05 basis of glass decreased, and the 05 basis of soda ash increased [1]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production increased, with the weekly output reaching 751,700 tons. The melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [1]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory inventory increased slightly, soda ash factory inventory decreased, and the inventory in the delivery warehouse increased. The inventory days of soda ash in glass factories decreased [1]. - **Real Estate Data**: New construction area improved slightly, while construction area, completion area, and sales area declined [1]. Log - **Prices and Spreads**: Log futures prices declined slightly. The prices of some spot logs remained stable, and the CFR price of some logs decreased [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The arrival volume at 12 ports in China decreased last week but is expected to increase this week. The inventory continued to decline, and the daily average outbound volume remained above 60,000 cubic meters [2]. Polysilicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The average price of N - type polysilicon decreased slightly, and the futures price of the main contract decreased by 3.93%. Some monthly spreads changed significantly [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 3.53%, and polysilicon production decreased by 2.58%. Monthly polysilicon production, import volume, and silicon wafer export volume increased [3]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 0.94%, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 6.65% [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of industrial silicon remained stable, and some basis and monthly spreads changed significantly [4]. - **Fundamentals**: National and regional industrial silicon production increased, and the national and regional operating rates also increased. The production of organic silicon DMC and polysilicon increased, while the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in Xinjiang increased slightly, while the inventory in Yunnan and Sichuan factories and the social inventory decreased [4]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some natural rubber products decreased, and some monthly spreads changed [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of natural rubber in Thailand and Indonesia increased in July, while the production in India and China decreased. The operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased, and the domestic tire production decreased [5]. - **Inventory**: The bonded area inventory decreased, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber in the SHFE increased [5].

1. Report General Information - Report title: Black Series Weekly Report [2] - Report date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Author: Shi Lei, Research Assistant Shi Zhuoran [2] 2. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Report Core Views Mid - to - Long - Term - For rebar and iron ore, this week, the market sentiment remained weak at the beginning and middle of the week, with the rebar main contract stabilizing and rebounding on Friday. After the military parade on Wednesday, the impact of production restrictions was coming to an end, and the expectation of upstream and downstream resumption of production increased. The supply and demand of rebar weakened simultaneously this week, and the contraction of steel mill profits formed a negative feedback. Attention should be paid to the recovery of peak - season demand. The global iron ore shipments increased significantly this period, and the daily average hot metal output reached a new low in the past six months. The iron ore futures price was under pressure due to the situation of strong supply and weak demand [65]. - For float glass, the float glass start - up rate increased month - on - month, the weekly output remained stable, and the in - factory inventory accumulated, with cautious market sentiment. For soda ash, the in - factory inventory continued to decline, downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand, the improvement of the supply - demand fundamentals was limited, and the main contract fluctuated weakly and steadily [69]. Short - Term - For the black series, recently, the main contracts of the black series mainly oscillated within a range. Attention should be paid to the start of demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [66]. - For glass and soda ash, the fundamentals improved limitedly this week, and the market continued to consolidate at the bottom [70]. 4. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Series One - Week Market Review | Variety | Futures Closing Price Change | Futures Closing Price Change Rate | Spot Price | Basis (Unconverted) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rebar (RB2601) | - 17.0 | - 1% | 3240.0 | 97.0 | | Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2601) | - 6.0 | - 0.2% | 3380.0 | 40.0 | | Iron Ore (I2601) | 2.0 | 0.3% | 790.0 | 0.5 | | Coke (J2601) | 3.5 | 0.2% | 1670.0 | 23.5 | | Coking Coal (JM2601) | 7.5 | 0.7% | 1350.0 | 191.5 | | Glass (FG601) | 7.0 | 0.6% | 1240.0 | 51.0 | | Soda Ash (SA601) | 6.0 | 0.5% | 1283.8 | - 18.3 | [3] Rebar - **Profit**: On September 4, the rebar blast furnace profit was reported at 1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to August 28 [7]. - **Supply**: As of September 5, the blast furnace start - up rate was 80.4%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 228.84 tons, a decrease of 11.29 tons; the rebar output was 218.68 tons, a decrease of 1.88 tons [12]. - **Demand**: In the week of September 5, the apparent consumption of rebar was reported at 202.07 tons, a decrease of 2.14 tons month - on - month; as of September 4, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was reported at 101,009 tons [17]. - **Inventory**: In the week of September 5, the social inventory of rebar was reported at 468.66 tons, an increase of 14.89 tons month - on - month; the in - factory inventory was reported at 171.34 tons, an increase of 1.72 tons month - on - month [22]. Iron Ore - **Supply**: In the week of August 29, the global iron ore shipments were reported at 3556.8 tons, an increase of 241 tons month - on - month; the arrival volume at 47 ports in the country was reported at 2645 tons, an increase of 182.7 tons month - on - month [27]. - **Inventory**: In the week of September 5, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was reported at 14425.72 tons, an increase of 37.7 tons month - on - month; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was reported at 8939.87 tons, a decrease of 67.32 tons month - on - month [30]. - **Demand**: In the week of September 5, the daily average port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was reported at 330.33 tons, a decrease of 3.81 tons month - on - month; as of September 4, the trading volume at major ports in China was reported at 90.5 tons [35]. Float Glass - **Supply**: In the week of September 5, the number of float glass production lines in operation was reported at 225, an increase of 1 compared to the previous week; the weekly output was reported at 1117025 tons, the same as the previous week; as of September 4, the capacity utilization rate of float glass was reported at 79.78%, the same as the previous week; the start - up rate of float glass was reported at 76.01%, an increase of 0.33 percentage points month - on - month [40]. - **Inventory**: In the week of September 5, the in - factory inventory of float glass was reported at 6305.0 million weight boxes, an increase of 48.4 million weight boxes compared to August 29; the available days of in - factory inventory were 26.9 days, an increase of 0.2 days month - on - month [44]. - **Demand**: As of September 1, the order days of glass deep - processing downstream manufacturers were 10.4 days [48]. Soda Ash - **Supply**: In the week of September 5, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was reported at 86.22%, an increase of 3.75 percentage points compared to the previous week; the output was reported at 75.17 tons, an increase of 3.26 tons compared to the previous week [53]. - **Inventory**: As of September 5, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was reported at 182.21 tons, a decrease of 4.54 tons compared to August 29 [58]. - **Sales Rate**: As of September 5, the sales rate of soda ash was reported at 106.04%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to August 29 [62].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price and Spread Changes**: From August 28 to September 4, 2025, the price of 5mm large - plate glass in some regions showed different trends. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass of Shahe Great Wall increased by 11.0 week - on - week and 9.0 day - on - day; FG9 - 1 spread increased by 15.0 week - on - week and 6.0 day - on - day [1]. - **Profit Changes**: During the same period, the profit of North China coal - fired glass increased by 19.5 week - on - week and 9.4 day - on - day; the profit of North China natural gas glass increased by 15.2 week - on - week and 9.0 day - on - day [1]. - **Market Conditions**: The production and sales of glass in Shahe factories were average, with low - price sales of Shahe traders around 1113 and average shipments; the price of factories in Hubei Province was around 1000, with average transactions. The production and sales rates of glass in different regions were: Shahe 97, Hubei 106, East China 86, and South China 99 [1]. Soda Ash - **Price and Spread Changes**: From August 28 to September 4, 2025, the price of heavy soda ash in some regions changed. For example, the price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased by 10.0 week - on - week and then increased by 20.0 day - on - day; SA09 - 01 spread increased by 7.0 week - on - week and 1.0 day - on - day [1]. - **Profit Changes**: The profit of North China ammonia - soda process decreased by 12.4 week - on - week and then increased by 0.6 day - on - day [1]. - **Market Conditions**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei delivery warehouses was around 1160, and the price delivered to Shahe was around 1200. The industry showed factory de - stocking and delivery warehouse inventory accumulation, with overall slight de - stocking [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - There is a contradiction between macro expectations and industrial logic, and there are temporary differences in far - month pricing without a clear direction [2] - For glass, the mid - upstream inventory is at a high level, the phased restocking ability is weak, and the market is in a state from weak balance to weak surplus. For纯碱, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for glass is 1000 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.99% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 54.2%. For纯碱, the price range is 1100 - 1500, with a volatility of 26.73% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 42.3% [1] Hedging Strategies Glass - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, sell FG2601 futures at 1450 with a 50% ratio and sell FG601C1420 call options at 50 - 60 with a 50% ratio. For procurement management with low regular inventory, buy FG2601 futures at 1100 - 1150 with a 50% ratio and sell FG601P1100 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio [1] 纯碱 - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, sell SA2601 futures at 1550 - 1600 with a 50% ratio and sell SA601C1500 call options at 60 - 70 with a 50% ratio. For procurement management with low regular inventory, buy SA2601 futures at 1200 - 1250 with a 50% ratio and sell SA601P1200 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio [1] Core Contradictions - There is a contradiction between macro expectations and industrial logic, and there are differences in far - month pricing direction [2] 利多 and 利空 Analysis - **利多**: Cost has an upward expectation affecting far - month pricing, and policy expectations cannot be completely excluded [2] - **利空**: The mid - upstream inventory of glass and 纯碱 is high, and the downstream's ability to absorb is questionable [2] Glass Fundamentals - The mid - upstream inventory is at a high level, and the phased restocking ability is weak. The daily melting volume on the supply side is stable at around 15.9 - 16 tons with a slight upward expectation. The cumulative apparent demand from January to August decreased by 7%, and the spot market is in a state from weak balance to weak surplus [2][3] 纯碱 Fundamentals - The medium - and long - term supply is expected to remain high. The normal maintenance continues, and the commissioning of Yuanxing Phase II is a focus this year. The fundamentals of photovoltaic glass have improved, and the spot price is expected to rise further. The overall rigid demand for 纯碱 is stable, and the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [3] Price and Spread Data Glass - On September 5, 2025, the 05 contract price was 1236, the 09 contract price was 950, and the 01 contract price was 1139. The 5 - 9 month - spread was 286, the 9 - 1 month - spread was - 189, and the 1 - 5 month - spread was - 97 [4] 纯碱 - On September 5, 2025, the 05 contract price was 1357, the 09 contract price was 1160, and the 01 contract price was 1277. The 5 - 9 month - spread was 197, the 9 - 1 month - spread was - 117, and the 1 - 5 month - spread was - 80 [6] Spot Price Data Glass - On September 4, 2025, the average price of沙河 glass was 1124, and prices in various regions were mostly stable [5] 纯碱 - On September 4, 2025, the heavy - alkali market prices in different regions were mostly stable, with the price in沙河 rising from 1176 to 1192 [8]

| | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025/8/27 | 2025/9/2 | | 2025/9/3 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/8/27 | 2025/9/2 | | 2025/9/3 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河重碱 | 1210.0 | 1170.0 | 1180.0 | -30.0 | 10.0 | SA05合 约 | 1375.0 | 1347.0 | 1357.0 | -18.0 | 10.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1200.0 | 1160.0 | 1160.0 | -40.0 | 0.0 | SA01合约 | 1307.0 | 1267.0 | 1276.0 | -31.0 | 9.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1450.0 | 1320.0 | 1320.0 | -130.0 | 0.0 | SA09合约 | 1191.0 | 1152.0 | 1158.0 | -33.0 | 6.0 | | ...