1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Treat with an oscillating and slightly bullish mindset, with the glass index reference range of 1010 - 1150 [6] - Soda Ash: Adopt a bearish approach when the price is high, with the soda ash index reference range of 1100 - 1250 [8] 2. Core Views of the Report - Glass: The supply - demand pattern has improved. The supply has weakened, and attention should be paid to whether it can drive mid - and downstream replenishment, which may support the glass price in the short term [6]. - Soda Ash: The willingness of soda ash plants to conduct maintenance has increased, leading to a short - term decline in supply. However, there is still a long - term production capacity investment pressure [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Price - As of December 31, the market price of 5mm float glass in North China was 1020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to the end of November; in Central China, it was 1000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton compared to the end of November. The mainstream market glass prices are running weakly [12]. Supply - Currently, the glass price is falling, the glass factory profit is weakening, and the inventory is high, leading to continuous cold repairs. The current daily melting volume of glass factories is 151,500 tons. The supply - demand pattern has improved due to the weakening supply, which may support the price [18]. Demand - In real estate, in November 2025, the completed area was 45.9293 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.6363 million square meters; the sales area was 67.1974 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.6805 million square meters. The year - end real estate completion has improved slightly, but the sales are poor, and the completion may be better than the previous period but worse than the same period last year [22]. - In the automotive industry, in November 2025, the automobile production was 3.5316 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 0.1729 million vehicles; the sales were 3.429 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 0.1069 million vehicles, which supports the glass demand [26]. - The year - end rush - to - work demand has weakened month - on - month, the sales pressure in the north is obvious, and the glass demand is difficult to have a large upward space due to the weak real estate. The downstream deep - processing order days are still weak year - on - year, and the glass apparent demand is at a low level in the same period over the years [30]. Inventory - In December, although the demand was poor, the inventory pressure of glass factories was relieved and the inventory decreased due to the decline in supply. The inventory of mid - stream traders is at a high level, and the subsequent replenishment strength may be limited [34]. Profit and Cost - The costs of glass produced with natural gas, coal, and petroleum coke have declined, and the glass spot price has weakened. The profits of the three production methods have fluctuated. The profit of glass produced with natural gas decreased from - 227.27 yuan/ton to - 186.4 yuan/ton; with coal, from 4.5 yuan/ton to - 21.88 yuan/ton; with petroleum coke, from - 31.48 yuan/ton to - 7.21 yuan/ton [38]. Basis - As of December 31, the glass 05 basis was - 87, a decrease of 16 compared to the end of November; the glass 5 - 9 contract spread was - 104, a decrease of 51 compared to the end of November. The spot price has weakened more, the basis has weakened, and the month - spread has weakened. The current basis is at a low level in the same period over the years, and the market has a pessimistic view on the near - term contracts [42]. Soda Ash Price - As of December 31, the market price of light soda ash in Qinghai was 890 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared to the end of November; the market price of heavy soda ash was 1122 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton compared to the end of November. The prices of light and heavy soda ash in the mainstream market are running weakly [48]. Supply - The spot price of soda ash has weakened, and the willingness of soda ash plants to conduct maintenance has increased. The soda ash production in December decreased. There will be new production capacity put into operation in the first quarter of this year, so there is a large long - term supply pressure. Currently, the price is low, and the plants are in a loss state, so the short - term production is under pressure. It is expected that the weekly production of soda ash in January will fluctuate around 700,000 tons [52]. Demand - In December, the production of photovoltaic glass was stable, while the production of float glass decreased month - on - month. Currently, the profit of glass factories is poor, and there is an expectation of cold repairs for float glass in January, which puts pressure on the soda ash demand. Overall, the demand for heavy soda ash is expected to weaken, while the demand for light soda ash is relatively stable [58]. Import and Export - In November 2025, the import volume of soda ash was 253 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 84 tons; the export volume was 189,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,100 tons. The domestic soda ash supply - demand is loose, and exports will help relieve the inventory pressure of domestic soda ash plants [62]. Inventory - In December, the inventory of soda ash plants decreased month - on - month. Although there is still an expectation of glass production reduction, considering the price decline, the soda ash production will continue to run weakly and stably. It is expected that the inventory of soda ash plants will decline slightly in January, and attention should be paid to the maintenance of soda ash plants [65]. Cost - In December, the cost of soda ash was running weakly. The supply concentration of soda ash plants is high, and they have strong bargaining power. The cost support of the light soda ash co - production method in East China is around 1200 yuan, and attention should be paid to the cost support [69]. Profit - The price of soda ash is weak, and the cost is running weakly. The profits of soda ash plants fluctuate. In North China, using the ammonia - soda process, the gross profit of light soda ash decreased from - 38.5 yuan/ton to - 57.4 yuan/ton, and that of heavy soda ash decreased from - 118.5 yuan/ton to - 137.4 yuan/ton. In East China, using the co - production method, the gross profit of light soda ash increased from - 140 yuan/ton to - 28.5 yuan/ton, and that of heavy soda ash increased from - 220 yuan/ton to - 88.5 yuan/ton [72]. Month - spread - As of December 31, the basis of the soda ash 05 contract was - 87, a decrease of 20 compared to the end of November; the 5 - 9 contract spread was - 65, an increase of 3 compared to the end of November. The spot price is running weakly, the basis has weakened, and the month - spread has strengthened. The current basis is at a low level in the same period over the years, and the market has a pessimistic view on the near - term contracts [76].

玻璃纯碱早报 纯碱现货：重碱河北交割库现货报价在1100左右，送到沙河1140左右 纯碱产业：周一上游库存大幅上行 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 河北鑫利4.8mm（折5mm） 2023 2024 2025 2026 (600) (400) (200) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 华北玻璃生产利润（气） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 946 959 946 970 948 1081 1183 1203 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 沙河德金 沙河安全 沙河低价 湖北低价 01合约 05合约 09合约 11合约 玻璃价格结构 今日(1/5） 昨日(12/31） 一周前(12/29） 一月前(12/5） (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 华南玻璃利润（气） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 玻璃： ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The core contradictions affecting the glass and soda ash markets include potential glass production line cold repairs before the Spring Festival, cost - based pricing for soda ash with new capacity on the way, and high inventories in the glass mid - stream and an ongoing capacity expansion cycle for soda ash [1]. - The glass market has a weak spot price due to high mid - stream inventories and the off - season. The soda ash market is affected by new capacity expectations and high inventories, but its upstream inventory reduction is better than expected [2]. - Glass and soda ash markets are in a state of oscillation without clear trends, and observation is recommended [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Suggestions 1.1 Core Contradictions - Before the Spring Festival, some glass production line cold repairs are yet to be realized, which impacts long - term pricing and market expectations. Policy - related supply disturbances cannot be excluded [1]. - Soda ash is mainly priced by cost. Despite occasional supply cuts, new capacity is pending, and production remains at a medium - high level. Its valuation lacks upward potential without a trend of production reduction, and its demand is expected to decline with potential glass cold repairs [1]. - In reality, the high mid - stream glass inventories need to be digested. For soda ash, the capacity expansion cycle continues, and an oversupply situation is expected [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Suggestions - Glass spot is weak, with cold repair expectations and high mid - stream inventories. Cost and supply expectations affect long - term pricing. The 05 contract is more about expectations. The glass and soda ash markets lack clear trends and are oscillating, so observation is recommended [7]. 1.3 Basic Data Overview - Glass spot prices: Some prices decreased slightly on January 5, 2026. For example, the average price of沙河交割品 dropped by 1 yuan compared to the previous day [11]. - Glass futures prices: The 05, 09, and 01 contracts all decreased on January 5, 2026, with the 09 contract having the largest decline rate of - 0.67% [11]. - Soda ash spot prices: Most regional prices remained stable on January 5, 2026, except for a 20 - yuan decrease in the light soda ash price in the central China region [13]. - Soda ash futures prices: The 05, 09, and 01 contracts all decreased on January 5, 2026, with the 05 contract having the largest decline rate of - 2.65% [14]. 2. This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: Some glass production line cold repairs are expected to be realized before the Spring Festival, and the National Development and Reform Commission will control high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects starting from 2026, which may lead to supply - side policy expectations [14]. - Negative information: New soda ash capacity is expected to increase, and the renewed glass cold repair expectations will affect soda ash demand [15]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Whether there are further clear instructions on industrial policies. - Glass production and sales, spot prices, and soda ash spot transaction situations [19]. 3. Disk Interpretation - Unilateral trends and capital movements: The glass 05 contract has unclear expectations, with weak supply and demand and no clear signals. Near - term spot pressure is high, and mid - stream inventories are high. Long - term supply reduction and cost increase are expected, but demand is unclear [20]. - Basis and spread structure: The glass 5 - 9 spread oscillates without a clear direction. The soda ash market maintains a C - structure, and its long - term situation may worsen with new capacity [25][26]. 4. Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Up - and Downstream Profit Tracking - Glass: Natural gas production lines are in the red, while petroleum coke and coal - gas production lines have small profits [42]. - Soda ash: The cash cost of the ammonia - soda process in Shandong is around 1210 yuan/ton, and that of the combined - soda process in central China is around 1105 yuan/ton [43]. 4.2 Import and Export Analysis - Glass: The monthly average net export of float glass is 6 - 7 tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand, with limited impact [50]. - Soda ash: The monthly average net export of soda ash is 18 - 21 tons, meeting expectations and accounting for 5.8% of the apparent demand, with a significantly higher proportion than last year. The November export was close to 19 tons, maintaining high export expectations [50]. 5. Supply, Demand, and Inventory 5.1 Supply - Side and Projections - Glass supply: The daily melting volume of glass has dropped to around 15.1 - 15.2 tons. Some cold repair production lines are yet to be realized before the Spring Festival, and the daily melting volume is expected to decline further [56]. - Soda ash supply: The current daily production of soda ash fluctuates slightly around 10.5 - 10.7 tons. The first phase (100 tons) of the Alxa Phase II project has started trial production, and the 70 - ton new capacity of Yingcheng Xindu is pending [59]. 5.2 Demand - Side and Projections - Glass demand: Mid - stream glass inventories remain high, and spot pressure exists. As of the end of December, glass deep - processing orders and raw material inventories decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The cumulative apparent demand for glass in 2025 is estimated to decline by 7.5%. Terminal demand is weak, and downstream restocking during the off - season is limited [62]. - Soda ash demand: The combined daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass is 24 tons, showing a slight decline. The daily demand for soda ash is about 4.8 tons. With potential glass cold repairs, soda ash demand is expected to decline. Photovoltaic glass inventories are accumulating, and its cold repair expectations should be monitored. The cumulative apparent demand for soda ash in 2025 is estimated to decline by 0.2% [73][74]. 5.3 Inventory Analysis - Glass: According to Longzhong data, the total glass factory inventory is 56.866 million weight - cases, a month - on - month decrease of 1.757 million weight - cases (- 3.00%) and a year - on - year increase of 28.96%. The inventory days are 25.6 days, a decrease of 0.9 days from the previous period. Mid - stream inventories in Shahe and Hubei remain high [82]. - Soda ash: The soda ash inventory is 1.4083 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,200 tons. The light soda ash inventory is 732,200 tons, a decrease of 3300 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory is 676,100 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons. The delivery warehouse inventory is 390,400 tons (a decrease of 4700 tons). The combined factory and delivery warehouse inventory is 1.7987 million tons, a decrease of 34,900 tons. The upstream inventory reduction exceeds expectations [82].

| | | | | | 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2026/1/5 | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/24 2025/12/30 2025/12/31 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | 2025/12/24 2025/12/30 2025/12/31 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 976.0 | 959.0 | 959.0 | -17.0 | 0.0 | FG05合约 | 1048.0 | 1087.0 | 1087.0 | 39.0 | 0.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 959.0 | 954.0 | 954.0 | -5.0 | 0.0 | FG01合约 | 941.0 | 950.0 | 949.0 | 8.0 | -1.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板低价 | 950 ...

玻璃现货：沙河工厂产销较高，沙河贸易商低价950左右，出货一般，期现出货差；湖北省内工厂970左右，成交尚可；湖北中游期现01平水， 成交差 玻璃产销：沙河143，湖北98，华东106，华南108 2025/12/22 2025/12/26 2025/12/29 周度变化 日度变化 2025/12/22 2025/12/26 2025/12/29 周度变化 日度变化 沙河重碱 1130.0 1140.0 1130.0 0.0 -10.0 SA05合 约 1169.0 1200.0 1181.0 12.0 -19.0 华中重碱 1120.0 1120.0 1110.0 -10.0 -10.0 SA01合约 1109.0 1121.0 1107.0 -2.0 -14.0 华南重碱 1350.0 1350.0 1350.0 0.0 0.0 SA09合约 1223.0 1258.0 1247.0 24.0 -11.0 青 海 重 碱 830.0 830.0 830.0 0.0 0.0 SA01沙河基 差 21.0 19.0 23.0 2.0 4.0 华北轻碱 1130.0 1130.0 1130.0 0.0 0.0 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The recent driving force is insufficient, and the medium - and long - term pressure expectation still exists. At the end of the year and the beginning of the new year, policies are mainly favorable, including economic and industrial policies. Fundamentally, there is support for glass and soda ash. For glass, demand maintains resilience and supply remains stable. For soda ash, supply and demand are stable. The recommended strategy is mainly inter - month reverse arbitrage [41]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview Glass - Supply: Production decreases slightly. The daily output of national float glass this week is 154,500 tons, a decrease of 0.39% compared to the 18th. The industry's start - up rate is 73.65%, a decrease of 0.34 percentage points compared to the 18th, and the capacity utilization rate is 77.26%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the 18th. One production line was shut down for cold repair this week, and a previously ignited production line started producing glass, resulting in a downward trend in weekly production [4]. - Demand: There is support, but the terminal demand support is limited. The current market is mainly driven by rigid demand, and the actual support for overall production and sales is relatively limited [4]. - Inventory: Inventory fluctuates. The enterprise inventory is 58.623 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 65,000 heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 0.11%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.63%. The inventory days are 26.5 days, the same as the previous period [4]. - Basis/Spread: The basis fluctuates weakly this week, and the 01 - 05 spread fluctuates [4]. - Valuation: Valuation is low [4]. - Macro and Policy: There are mainly policy benefits at the end of the year and the beginning of the new year [4]. - Investment View: The price fluctuates recently, and supply and demand are supported [4]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: None; Arbitrage: Mainly reverse arbitrage. Risk concerns: Daily melting volume, production and sales, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [4]. Soda Ash - Supply: Supply decreases. This week, the soda ash output is 711,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,600 tons, a decline of 1.32%. Next week, the supply is expected to increase, but it is difficult to have a large - scale increase at the end of the year and the beginning of the new year [5]. - Demand: The short - term direct demand weakens marginally. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remains stable, and the daily melting volume of float glass decreases [5]. - Inventory: Inventory is depleted. The manufacturer's total inventory is 1.4385 million tons, a decrease of 60,800 tons compared to last Thursday, a decline of 4.06% [5]. - Basis/Spread: The basis fluctuates weakly this week, and the 01 - 05 spread fluctuates [5]. - Valuation: Valuation is low [5]. - Macro and Policy: There are mainly policy benefits at the end of the year and the beginning of the new year [5]. - Investment View: Supply and demand are supported in the short term, and the valuation is low [5]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: None; Arbitrage: Mainly reverse arbitrage. Risk concerns: Soda ash plant production, glass production and sales, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review Glass - The price is under pressure this week. The main contract closes at 924 (- 20), and the Shahe spot price is 1057 (- 10) [7]. Soda Ash - The price fluctuates this week. The main contract closes at 1200 (+ 24), and the Shahe spot price is 1135 (+ 5) [13]. Spread/Basis - For soda ash, the 05 - 09 spread fluctuates, and the basis fluctuates downward. For glass, the 05 - 09 spread fluctuates, and the basis fluctuates downward [23]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Fundamental Data Glass Supply - Production decreases slightly. The daily output of national float glass this week is 154,500 tons, a decrease of 0.39% compared to the 18th. The industry's start - up rate is 73.65%, a decrease of 0.34 percentage points compared to the 18th, and the capacity utilization rate is 77.26%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the 18th. The production profit of glass decreases [25][26]. Glass Demand - Downstream deep - processing orders are average. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 9.7 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%. The real - estate's mid - and back - end completion data is poor. The inventory fluctuates [29][30]. Soda Ash Supply - Supply decreases. This week, the soda ash output is 711,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,600 tons, a decline of 1.32%. The profit of soda ash plants fluctuates [33][37]. Soda Ash Demand - Demand is weak. The short - term direct demand weakens marginally. The inventory is depleted [38].

Glass Market Analysis - The main contract for glass (2605) experienced a fluctuating increase this week, with the average price of float glass in the domestic market at 1082 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.16 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, indicating a downward shift in transaction focus [2][10] - The operating rate of float glass enterprises is at 73.65%, a decrease of 0.34% week-on-week, while the capacity utilization rate is at 77.42%, down by 0.14% [2][10] - Daily melting volume of float glass is 154,500 tons, which is a 0.39% decrease from the previous week [2][10] Demand and Inventory - Demand for float glass has improved on a week-on-week basis, with production and sales recovering, primarily driven by downstream purchasing based on demand [3][11] - Total inventory of float glass in sample enterprises across the country is 58.623 million heavy boxes, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.11% [3][12] - The supply-demand contradiction in the glass market remains significant, with insufficient production cuts compared to the declining demand, leading to persistent inventory pressure [3][12] Soda Ash Market Analysis - The main contract for soda ash (2605) also saw a fluctuating increase this week, with downstream purchasing primarily driven by demand amid a cautious market sentiment [4][13] - The capacity utilization rate for soda ash is at 81.65%, down by 1.09% week-on-week, with a production volume of 711,800 tons, a decrease of 1.33% [4][13] - Soda ash consumption has slightly declined, with daily melting of float glass decreasing and photovoltaic glass remaining stable [4][14] Inventory and Supply-Demand Dynamics - Domestic soda ash manufacturers' inventory stands at 1.4385 million tons, reflecting a significant week-on-week decrease of 4.06% [5][14] - The supply-demand contradiction for soda ash has eased, with continuous inventory reduction as enterprises lower production loads [5][14] - Future projections indicate that new projects in soda ash production may impact supply dynamics, necessitating close monitoring of float glass production line changes and new soda ash project developments [5][14]

Report Title - The report is titled "South China Futures Glass and Soda Ash Industry Weekly Report - Low-level Volatility" [1] Report Date - The report date is December 28, 2025 [2] 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core contradictions affecting the glass and soda ash trends include potential glass production line cold repairs from late December to before the Spring Festival, which impact far - month pricing and market expectations. Policy - end supply disturbances in 2026 cannot be ruled out [2]. - Soda ash is mainly cost - priced. Despite occasional supply cuts, new capacities are pending, and production remains at a medium - high level. Without a trend of production cuts, its valuation lacks upward elasticity. With the resurgence of glass cold - repair expectations, the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to decline [2]. - Currently, the high inventory of glass in the middle reaches needs to be digested. Soda ash is expected to have an oversupply situation due to new capacities [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The glass spot is weak, with cold - repair expectations but high middle - reach inventory. The sustainability needs to be observed, including unexpected cold - repair situations and spot feedback. Cost and supply expectations affect far - month pricing [8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The 05 contract is more about expectations. The glass and soda ash trends are unclear, lacking clear signals, and are expected to be volatile. It is advisable to observe [8]. 1.3 Basic Data Overview - **Glass**: The average spot price of glass decreased by 2 yuan on December 28, 2025. The 05, 09, and 01 contracts of glass futures increased by 0.96%, 1.13%, and 0.43% respectively on December 26, 2025. The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions on December 26, 2025, were 105 in Shahe, 129 in Hubei, 108 in East China, and 109 in South China [12][13]. - **Soda Ash**: There was little change in the spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions on December 26, 2025. The 05, 09, and 01 contracts of soda ash futures increased by 1.35%, 1.45%, and 0.54% respectively on December 26, 2025 [14][15]. 2. This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: There are still some glass production line cold - repair expectations to be fulfilled from late December to before the Spring Festival, and supply is starting to shrink. The National Development and Reform Commission will effectively control high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects from next year, which may lead to market expectations of supply - side policies [15][16]. - **Negative Information**: The high inventory of glass in the middle reaches persists, with near - term spot pressure. The far - month demand expectation lacks elasticity, and there are differences in the degree of demand decline. New capacities of soda ash are expected to increase long - term supply pressure, and the resurgence of glass cold - repair expectations affects the rigid demand for soda ash [18]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Whether there are further clear instructions on industrial policies. - The sales - to - production situation and spot price of glass, as well as the spot transaction situation of soda ash [18]. 3. Disk Interpretation 3.1 Single - Side Trends and Capital Movements - The expectation of the main 05 contract of glass is unclear, with weak supply and demand and no clear signals. The near - term spot pressure of glass is high, and the middle - reach inventory is high. The far - month has expectations of supply cuts and cost increases, but the demand is unclear [19]. 3.2 Basis and Calendar Spread Structure - **Glass**: The 01 contract is approaching delivery. This week, the 5 - 9 spread was mainly volatile, with no clear directional movement due to unclear supply - demand expectations and a wait - and - see attitude from funds [23]. - **Soda Ash**: It maintains a C structure overall. With the launch of new capacities, the long - term pattern may deteriorate again [24]. 4. Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - **Glass**: Natural gas production lines are in a loss, while petroleum coke and coal - gas production lines have slight profits [40]. - **Soda Ash**: The cash - flow cost of the ammonia - soda process in Shandong is around 1,200 yuan/ton, and the cash cost of the combined - soda process (mainly in Central China) is around 1,105 yuan/ton [41]. 4.2 Import and Export Analysis - **Glass**: The average monthly net export of float glass is 6 - 70,000 tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand, with a limited impact [47]. - **Soda Ash**: The average monthly net export of soda ash is 180,000 - 210,000 tons, basically in line with expectations, accounting for 5.8% of the apparent demand, with a significantly higher proportion than last year. The export in November was close to 190,000 tons, maintaining a high - expectation level [47]. 5. Supply, Demand, and Inventory 5.1 Supply - Side and Projections - **Glass**: The daily melting volume of glass has dropped to around 154,500 tons. There are still some cold - repair production lines to be fulfilled from late December to before the Spring Festival, and the daily melting volume is expected to decline further [54]. - **Soda Ash**: The current daily production of soda ash fluctuates slightly around 10 tons. The first 1 - million - ton soda ash capacity of the second phase of Alxa (total 2.8 million tons) started trial production on December 9. The new 700,000 - ton capacity of Yingcheng Xindu may be put into production in mid - to - late December [58]. 5.2 Demand - Side and Projections - **Glass**: The high inventory of glass in the middle reaches persists, and the spot pressure remains. As of mid - December, the deep - processing orders of glass were 9.7 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%. The deep - processing raw - glass inventory was 9 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.1%. The cumulative apparent demand for glass from January to December (excluding imports and exports) is estimated to decline by 6.9 - 7%. Terminal demand remains weak, and downstream restocking during the off - season is limited [61]. - **Soda Ash**: Currently, the total daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass is 243,000 tons, showing a slight decline, and the daily rigid demand for soda ash is about 48,600 tons. With the expectation of further glass cold - repairs, the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to decline month - on - month. The finished - product inventory of photovoltaic glass continues to accumulate, and the inventory days have risen to over 35 days. The cumulative apparent demand for soda ash from January to November (including imports and exports) is estimated to be - 0.05%. The rigid demand for soda ash weakens slightly month - on - month, and downstream restocks mainly for rigid demand at low prices [74]. 5.3 Inventory Analysis - **Glass**: According to Longzhong data, the total manufacturer inventory is 58.623 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 65,000 weight boxes, or 0.11%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.63%. The inventory days are 26.5 days, the same as the previous period. The middle - reach inventories in Shahe and Hubei remain high [85]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash inventory is 1.4385 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60,800 tons. Among them, the light - soda ash inventory is 735,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,900 tons; the heavy - soda ash inventory is 703,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 68,700 tons. The delivery - warehouse inventory is 395,100 tons (a decrease of 55,200 tons). The total inventory of factory warehouses and delivery warehouses is 1.8336 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 116,000 tons. The upstream inventory reduction exceeds expectations [85].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Report's Core View - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the glass and soda ash markets, including price trends, production and sales, inventory changes, and profit margins [2] Group 3: Summary of Glass Market Price Changes - In the glass market, prices of various 5mm large - plate products in different regions showed different trends from December 18 to December 25, 2025. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate of Shahe Safety decreased by 8.0 from 984.0 to 976.0, and the price of 5mm large - plate of Wuhan Changli decreased by 40.0 from 1070.0 to 1030.0 [2] Futures Contract Price Changes - FG05 contract price decreased by 15.0 from 1062.0 to 1047.0, and FG01 contract price decreased by 21.0 from 953.0 to 932.0 during the same period [2] Production and Sales - Shahe's glass production - sales ratio was 102, Hubei's was 97, East China's was 107, and South China's was 108. Shahe factory's production and sales were neutral, and the shipment of Shahe traders at low prices was average, with poor spot - futures shipment. In Hubei, the transaction was also neutral [2] Profit Margins - North China's coal - fired glass profit increased from 69.7 to 84.4, while South China's natural - gas glass profit remained at - 188.1. The 05FG and 01FG盘面 natural - gas profits decreased [2] Group 4: Summary of Soda Ash Market Price Changes - Soda ash prices in different regions remained stable from December 18 to December 25, 2025. For example, the price of Shahe heavy soda remained at 1140.0, and the price of Huazhong heavy soda remained at 1120.0 [2] Futures Contract Price Changes - SA05 contract price decreased by 9.0 from 1193.0 to 1184.0, SA01 contract price decreased by 22.0 from 1137.0 to 1115.0, and SA09 contract price decreased by 10.0 from 1250.0 to 1240.0 [2] Inventory and Production - The upstream and mid - stream inventories of the soda ash industry were being depleted. Yuanxing's first - phase production capacity increased to 17,000 tons per day, and the second - phase produced qualified products [2] Profit Margins - North China's ammonia - soda process profit increased from - 239.2 to - 226.9, and North China's combined - soda process profit increased from - 348.6 to - 316.9 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Glass Summary Price and Contract Changes - From Dec 17 to Dec 24, the price of 5mm glass in Shahe Security decreased from 984.0 to 976.0, a weekly change of -8.0 and a daily change of 0.0; FG05 contract price increased from 1038.0 to 1048.0, a weekly change of 10.0 and a daily change of 20.0 [2] - The price of 5mm glass in Shahe Great Wall decreased from 976.0 to 959.0, a weekly change of -17.0 and a daily change of 0.0; FG01 contract price decreased from 944.0 to 941.0, a weekly change of -3.0 and a daily change of 3.0 [2] Profit and Basis - North China coal - fired glass profit was 73.6 on Dec 24, with a weekly change of 6.4 and a daily change of -4.7; North China coal - fired cost was 876.4, with a weekly change of -15.4 and a daily change of -4.3 [2] - 01 Hebei basis was 9.0 on Dec 24, with a weekly change of -6.0 and a daily change of -12.0; 01 Hubei basis was 49.0, with a weekly change of 3.0 and a daily change of -3.0 [2] Sales and Market Conditions - Shahe glass factory sales were weak, with traders' low - price at around 950 and average shipments; Hubei factory glass price was around 990, with weakening transactions [2] - Glass sales rates were 90 in Shahe, 72 in Hubei, 109 in East China, and 112 in South China [2] 纯碱 Summary Price and Contract Changes - From Dec 17 to Dec 24, the price of Shahe heavy soda ash remained at 1140.0, with a weekly change of 0.0 and a daily change of 0.0; SA05 contract price increased from 1170.0 to 1184.0, a weekly change of 14.0 and a daily change of 9.0 [2] - The price of Central China heavy soda ash decreased from 1130.0 to 1120.0, a weekly change of -10.0 and a daily change of -10.0; SA01 contract price decreased from 1127.0 to 1117.0, a weekly change of -10.0 and a daily change of 0.0 [2] Profit and Basis - North China ammonia - soda process profit was -230.1 on Dec 24, with a weekly change of 14.5 and a daily change of -6.2; North China combined - soda process profit was -321.2, with a weekly change of 36.0 and a daily change of -5.5 [2] - SA01 Shahe basis was 23.0 on Dec 24, with a weekly change of 10.0 and a daily change of 0.0 [2] Industry Conditions - Upstream soda ash inventory accumulated, while mid - stream inventory decreased; Yuanxing's first - phase production capacity increased to 17,000 tons per day, and the second - phase produced qualified products [2]