Report Overview - The report is a morning report on glass and soda ash, issued on December 2, 2025, by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [1] Glass Section Price and Contract Information - For 5mm glass plates, prices in different regions showed various trends from November 24 to December 1. For example, the price of Shahe Anquan 5mm large plate increased from 1044.0 to 1061.0, with a weekly change of 17.0 and no daily change on December 1. FG05 contract price was 1161.0 on December 1, with a weekly change of 3.0 and a daily change of -9.0 [1] Profit and Cost - North China coal - fired glass profit increased from 73.3 to 128.8, with a weekly change of 55.5 and a daily change of 16.1. North China coal - fired cost decreased from 936.7 to 924.2, with a weekly change of -12.5 and a daily change of -7.1. South China natural gas glass profit remained at -188.1, while North China natural gas glass profit improved from -331.5 to -285.4, with a weekly change of 46.2 and a daily change of 13.2 [1] Market Conditions - Shahe factory's glass sales slightly weakened. The low - price of Shahe traders' glass was around 1053, with average sales, and poor futures - spot sales. In Hubei, the factory price was around 1030, with fair transactions. The sales rates were 97 in Shahe, 112 in Hubei, 96 in East China, and 112 in South China [1] Soda Ash Section Price and Contract Information - Soda ash prices in different regions also had different trends. For example, Shahe heavy soda ash price was 1150.0 on December 1, with no weekly change and a daily change of -10.0. SA05 contract price was 1243.0 on December 1, with a weekly change of -6.0 and a daily change of 8.0 [1] Profit and Cost - North China ammonia - soda process profit decreased from -297.0 to -311.9, with a weekly change of 1.5 and a daily change of -14.9. North China combined - soda process profit decreased from -448.5 to -464.3, with a weekly change of -19.2 and a daily change of -15.8 [1] Market Conditions - The spot price of heavy soda ash at the Hebei delivery warehouse was around 1130, and the delivered price to Shahe was around 1150. The inventory of the mid - and upstream of the soda ash industry continued to decline [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, ethylene glycol, urea, asphalt, soda ash [1][3][5] - **Cautiously Bullish**: PX/PTA, methanol, natural gas [3][5] - **Bearish Rebound**: L, PP, glass [1][5] - **Bearish Continuation**: Soda ash [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ maintains production policy, supply surplus in the off - season dominates. Geopolitical tensions ease, and prices are under pressure. Consider partial profit - taking on short positions [1][8]. - **LPG**: Saudi Arabia raises CP contract price, but the market has priced it in. There is short - term correction pressure. Consider buying put options [1]. - **L**: Cost support improves, but supply is sufficient, and demand weakens after November. Close short positions and wait for a rebound to go short [1]. - **PP**: 12 - month CP quote rises, providing cost support. Supply is under pressure, and there is a high de - stocking pressure. Close short positions and wait for a rebound to go short [1]. - **PVC**: Chlor - alkali profit is compressed. Social inventory is high, but there is low - valuation support. Consider short - term long positions based on capital dynamics and long - term long positions after inventory de - stocking [1]. - **PX/PTA**: Processing fees are low, supply pressure eases due to device maintenance, and downstream demand is good. Consider going long on dips [3]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply pressure may ease with future device maintenance, but there is a cumulative inventory expectation in December. Lack of upward drivers, consider short positions on rebounds [3]. - **Methanol**: Port inventory is decreasing, but supply pressure is still high. Consider going long on 05 contract on dips [3]. - **Urea**: Supply pressure is large, demand is weak domestically and strong overseas. Consider short positions on rebounds [3]. - **Natural Gas**: Entering the consumption peak season, demand is supported, and prices are likely to rise [5]. - **Asphalt**: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices are under pressure. Continue to hold short positions [5]. - **Glass**: Pay attention to the implementation of cold - repair plans. Short - term may be strong, but long - term is bearish [5]. - **Soda Ash**: Warehouse receipts increase, supply is in a long - term high - production cycle, and demand is weak. Hold short positions on the 01 alkali - glass spread and wait for a rebound to go short [5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Review**: On November 27, WTI decreased by 0.17%, Brent decreased by 0.78%, and SC increased by 1.30% [7]. - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ maintains production policy, supply surplus in the off - season, and geopolitical tensions ease [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply: US oil rig count decreases, and Mexican oil production declines. Demand: OPEC expects global oil demand to increase in 2025 and 2026. Inventory: US crude and refined product inventories increase [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider partial profit - taking on short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC [450 - 460] [10]. 3.2 LPG - **Market Review**: On November 28, the PG main contract closed at 4361 yuan/ton, up 2.16% [11]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost is linked to crude oil, downstream demand is resilient, and inventory decreases [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Do not chase the rise, buy put options. Pay attention to the range of PG [4350 - 4450] [13]. 3.3 L - **Market Review**: L2601 contract closed at 6699 yuan/ton [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves, but supply is sufficient, and demand weakens after November [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions, wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the range of L [6750 - 6900] [18]. 3.4 PP - **Market Review**: PP2601 closed at 6265 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basic Logic**: 12 - month CP quote rises, supply is under pressure, and there is a high de - stocking pressure [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions, wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the range of PP [6350 - 6500] [22]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Review**: V2601 closed at 4586 yuan/ton [25]. - **Basic Logic**: Chlor - alkali profit is compressed, social inventory is high, but there is low - valuation support [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - term long positions based on capital dynamics and long - term long positions after inventory de - stocking. Pay attention to the range of V [4500 - 4700] [26]. 3.6 PX/PTA - **Market Review**: TA05 closed at 4752 yuan/ton [27]. - **Basic Logic**: Processing fees are low, supply pressure eases due to device maintenance, and downstream demand is good. There is a cumulative inventory expectation in December [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider going long on dips. Pay attention to the range of TA [4650 - 4740] [29]. 3.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: Not explicitly mentioned. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic coal - based ethylene glycol device starts to increase, but future integrated device maintenance will ease supply pressure. There is a cumulative inventory expectation in December [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG [3850 - 3920] [32]. 3.8 Methanol - **Market Review**: Not explicitly mentioned. - **Basic Logic**: Taicang spot strengthens, port inventory decreases, supply pressure is high, and demand improves [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Continue to pay attention to going long on the 05 contract on dips. Pay attention to the range of MA [2105 - 2145] [38]. 3.9 Urea - **Market Review**: URO5 closed at 1743 yuan/ton [39]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is large, demand is weak domestically and strong overseas, and inventory is high [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of UR [1640 - 1680] [41]. 3.10 Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On November 27, the NG main contract closed at 4.850 dollars/million British thermal units, up 6.41% [43]. - **Basic Logic**: EU bans Russian gas imports, entering the consumption peak season, and demand is supported [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gas prices are likely to rise. Pay attention to the range of NG [4.680 - 5.000] [45]. 3.11 Asphalt - **Market Review**: On November 28, the BU main contract closed at 2996 yuan/ton, down 0.37% [48]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost is linked to crude oil, supply is sufficient, and demand is in the off - season [49]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Continue to hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of BU [2950 - 3050] [50]. 3.12 Glass - **Market Review**: FG2601 closed at 1053 yuan/ton [53]. - **Basic Logic**: Multiple production lines plan cold - repair in December, but demand is weak [54]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to cold - repair implementation. Short - term may be strong, long - term is bearish. Pay attention to the range of FG [1020 - 1070] [54]. 3.13 Soda Ash - **Market Review**: SA2601 closed at 1239 yuan/ton [57]. - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts increase, supply is in a long - term high - production cycle, and demand is weak [58]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions on the 01 alkali - glass spread and wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the range of SA [1140 - 1180] [58].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents the latest prices, profit margins, and market conditions of glass and soda ash in different regions, including price changes, production and sales, and inventory trends. 3. Summary by Category Glass - **Price Information**: From November 21 to November 28, 2025, the prices of 5mm glass in various regions showed different trends. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass from Shahe Anquan increased from 1044.0 to 1061.0, and the price of FG05 contract rose from 1141.0 to 1170.0 [1]. - **Profit Margin**: The profit margins of glass production using different energy sources also changed. The profit of North China coal - fired glass increased from 78.5 to 112.7, while the profit of South China natural gas - fired glass remained at - 188.1 [1]. - **Market Conditions**: The production and sales of glass factories in Shahe have recently strengthened, but the sales of traders are average. In Hubei, the transaction of factories has improved, but the mid - stream transaction has weakened. The production and sales rates in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China are 162, 162, 111, and 116 respectively [1]. Soda Ash - **Price Information**: From November 21 to November 28, 2025, the prices of heavy soda ash in different regions changed. For example, the price of heavy soda ash in Shahe increased from 1140.0 to 1160.0, and the price of SA01 contract rose from 1170.0 to 1177.0 [1]. - **Profit Margin**: The profit margins of soda ash production using different methods also changed. The profit of North China ammonia - soda method increased from - 338.4 to - 297.0, while the profit of North China combined - soda method changed from - 445.6 to - 448.5 [1]. - **Market Conditions**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei's delivery warehouses is around 1130, and the price delivered to Shahe is around 1150. The inventory of the mid - upstream of the soda ash industry continues to decline [1].

Report on the Glass Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The glass industry is currently in a bottom - exploring phase. Although the supply has contracted due to some enterprises' cold - repair of production lines, the overall trading atmosphere in the spot market remains weak. The downstream mainly purchases based on rigid demand, and manufacturers still face significant shipment pressure. The supply - demand contradiction has not been effectively alleviated. It is expected that the short - term market will continue to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to consider short - selling at high prices. Attention should be paid to the actual recovery of downstream orders and the implementation progress of cold - repair production lines [13][14]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of November 28, 2025, the spot market price of float glass was 1090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1041 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 29 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan/ton week - on - week [13][19]. - **Cost and Profit**: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas was - 227.27 yuan/ton, down 20.43 yuan/ton week - on - week; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 4250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton week - on - week. The weekly average profit of using coal as fuel was 4.5 yuan/ton, down 21.29 yuan/ton week - on - week; the weekly average profit of using petroleum coke as fuel was - 31.48 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week - on - week [13][29][32]. - **Supply**: The weekly output of national float glass was 110.39 tons, down 0.63 tons week - on - week. The number of operating production lines was 220, down 1 week - on - week, and the operating rate was 74.51% [13][37]. - **Demand**: The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 9.9 days/ton, down 0.90 days week - on - week; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 46.50%, unchanged week - on - week. From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 71982.00 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.80%; in October, the sales area of commercial housing was 6147.21 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.60%. In October, the production and sales of automobiles were 335.87/332.21 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.09%/8.82%; from January to October, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 2769.20/2768.70 million vehicles [13][40][43][46]. - **Inventory**: The national float glass factory inventory was 6236.2 million heavy boxes, down 94.10 million heavy boxes week - on - week; the factory inventory in the Shahe area was 424.64 million heavy boxes, down 38.96 million heavy boxes week - on - week [13][51]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Glass Basis**: As of November 28, 2025, the basis was 29 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan/ton week - on - week [13][19]. - **Glass Inter - month Spread**: As of November 28, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread was - 112 yuan/ton (+35), the 05 - 09 spread was - 56 yuan/ton (+22), the 09 - 01 spread was 168 yuan/ton (- 57), and the open interest reached 192.57 million lots [22]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - **Float Glass Profit and Cost**: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas was - 227.27 yuan/ton, down 20.43 yuan/ton week - on - week; the weekly average profit of using coal as fuel was 4.5 yuan/ton, down 21.29 yuan/ton week - on - week; the weekly average profit of using petroleum coke as fuel was - 31.48 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week - on - week [29][32]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Glass Production and Operating Rate**: As of November 28, 2025, the national float glass weekly output was 110.39 tons, down 0.63 tons week - on - week, the number of operating production lines was 220, down 1 week - on - week, and the operating rate was 74.51% [37]. - **Glass Demand**: The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 9.9 days/ton, down 0.90 days week - on - week; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 46.50%, unchanged week - on - week. The real - estate and automobile market data are as mentioned above [40][43][46]. 3.5 Inventory As of November 28, 2025, the national float glass factory inventory was 6236.2 million heavy boxes, down 94.10 million heavy boxes week - on - week; the factory inventory in the Shahe area was 424.64 million heavy boxes, down 38.96 million heavy boxes week - on - week [51]. Report on the Soda Ash Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View Last week, the previously overhauled soda ash production facilities were gradually restarted, and the industry's operating load increased slightly. The mainstream soda ash market maintained on - demand sales, and the inventory decreased slightly. The supply of light soda ash was locally tight, and the demand was relatively stable; the demand for heavy soda ash was weak due to the decline in the downstream glass industry's operation. In general, the soda ash market's quotation remained firm due to cost support and pending orders, and the overall trading atmosphere was mild. It is expected that the soda ash price will remain stable in the short term, but it is still recommended to take a bearish view until the demand side shows significant improvement [62][63]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of November 28, 2025, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1146 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton week - on - week; the closing price of the soda ash main contract was 1176 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was - 30 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [62][68]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 118.5 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 220 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price of steam coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 822 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 4250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 215 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2446 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton week - on - week [62][79][82]. - **Supply**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly output of soda ash was 69.82 tons, down 2.27 tons week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.08%. The output of heavy soda ash was 38.31 tons, down 1.31 tons week - on - week; the output of light soda ash was 31.51 tons, down 0.96 tons week - on - week [62][90][93]. - **Demand**: As of November 28, 2025, the national float glass weekly output was 110.39 tons, down 0.63 tons week - on - week, the number of operating production lines was 220, down 1 week - on - week, and the operating rate was 74.51%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in October reached 313 tons [62][96]. - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the soda ash factory inventory was 158.74 tons, down 5.70 tons week - on - week; the inventory available days were 13.16 days, down 0.47 days week - on - week. The heavy soda ash factory inventory was 84.68 tons, down 4.05 tons week - on - week; the light soda ash factory inventory was 74.06 tons, down 1.65 tons week - on - week [62][101][104]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Soda Ash Basis**: As of November 28, 2025, the basis was - 30 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [62][68]. - **Soda Ash Inter - month Spread**: As of November 28, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread was - 55 yuan/ton (+14), the 05 - 09 spread was - 69 yuan/ton (- 2), the 09 - 01 spread was 124 yuan/ton (- 12), and the open interest reached 192.57 million lots [71]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - **Soda Ash Profit**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 118.5 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 220 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton week - on - week [79]. - **Raw Material Cost**: The price of steam coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 822 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 4250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 215 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2446 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton week - on - week [82][85]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Soda Ash Production**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly output of soda ash was 69.82 tons, down 2.27 tons week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.08%. The output of heavy soda ash was 38.31 tons, down 1.31 tons week - on - week; the output of light soda ash was 31.51 tons, down 0.96 tons week - on - week [90][93]. - **Soda Ash Demand**: As of November 28, 2025, the national float glass weekly output was 110.39 tons, down 0.63 tons week - on - week, the number of operating production lines was 220, down 1 week - on - week, and the operating rate was 74.51%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in October reached 313 tons [96]. 3.5 Inventory As of November 28, 2025, the soda ash factory inventory was 158.74 tons, down 5.70 tons week - on - week; the inventory available days were 13.16 days, down 0.47 days week - on - week. The heavy soda ash factory inventory was 84.68 tons, down 4.05 tons week - on - week; the light soda ash factory inventory was 74.06 tons, down 1.65 tons week - on - week [101][104].

Report Overview - The report is a weekly analysis of the black commodity sector, covering varieties such as rebar, hot-rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, glass, and soda ash [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - **Long - term outlook**: For rebar and iron ore, construction site funds are improving, but the steel off - season is obvious, and the profitability of steel mills is narrowing. The supply of iron ore is loose, but iron - water production is falling. For glass and soda ash, glass inventory has stopped increasing, production has decreased, and sales are good. Soda ash supply has declined, and demand is expected to narrow [67][71] - **Short - term outlook**: Rebar and iron ore will fluctuate within a range. Glass is expected to be strong in the short - term due to cold - repair production cut expectations, while soda ash will continue to oscillate at a low level [68][72] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Black Commodity Weekly Market Review | Variety | Contract | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/28 | Change | % Change | Spot Price | Basis (Unconverted) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | RB2601 | 3057 | 3110 | 53 | 2 | 3250 | 140 | | Hot - rolled Coil | HC2601 | 3270 | 3302 | 32 | 1 | 3290 | - 12 | | Iron Ore | I2601 | 786 | 794 | 9 | 1 | 805 | 11 | | Coke | J2601 | 1615 | 1575 | - 40 | - 2 | 1770 | 196 | | Coking Coal | JM2601 | 1103 | 1067 | - 36 | - 3 | 1510 | 443 | | Glass | FG601 | 987 | 1053 | 66 | 7 | 1090 | 37 | | Soda Ash | SA601 | 1170 | 1177 | 7 | 1 | 1261 | 84 | [3] 3.2 Rebar - **Profit**: On November 27, the blast - furnace profit of rebar was - 19 yuan/ton [7] - **Supply**: As of November 28, the blast - furnace operating rate was 81.09%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points; the daily average pig - iron output was 2.3468 million tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons; the rebar output was 2.0608 million tons, a decrease of 18,800 tons [12] - **Demand**: In the week of November 28, the apparent consumption of rebar was 2.2794 million tons, a decrease of 28,500 tons compared with the previous week. As of November 27, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 92,694 tons [17] - **Inventory**: In the week of November 28, the social inventory of rebar was 3.8475 million tons, a decrease of 154,500 tons; the in - plant inventory was 1.4673 million tons, a decrease of 65,900 tons [22] 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: In the week of November 21, the global iron - ore shipping volume was 3.2784 million tons, a decrease of 238,000 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2.9395 million tons, an increase of 569,600 tons [27] - **Inventory**: In the week of November 28, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 15.90122 million tons, an increase of 166,370 tons; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was 8.94248 million tons, a decrease of 58,750 tons [32] - **Demand**: In the week of November 28, the average daily port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 344,060 tons, an increase of 670 tons. As of November 27, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 119,100 tons [37] 3.4 Float Glass - **Supply**: In the week of November 28, the number of operating float - glass production lines was 220, a decrease of 1; the weekly output was 1,103,895 tons, a decrease of 6,300 tons. As of November 27, the capacity utilization rate was 78.58%, and the operating rate was 74.32% [42] - **Inventory**: In the week of November 28, the in - plant inventory of float glass was 62.362 million weight - boxes, a decrease of 941,000 tons; the available days of in - plant inventory were 27.5 days, the same as the previous week [47] - **Demand**: In the week of November 17, the number of days of deep - processing orders from glass downstream manufacturers was 9.9 days [51] 3.5 Soda Ash - **Supply**: In the week of November 28, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 80.08%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points; the output was 698,200 tons, a decrease of 22,700 tons [55] - **Inventory**: As of November 28, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was 1.5874 million tons, a decrease of 57,000 tons [60] - **Sales Ratio**: As of November 28, the sales ratio of soda ash was 108.16%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points [64]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously bullish [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Bullish [3] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish rebound [6] - Soda Ash: Bearish consolidation [6] Report's Core Views - The market is affected by geopolitical factors such as the easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the prices of most energy and chemical products are under pressure. The supply and demand fundamentals of each product vary, and investors should pay attention to relevant factors and adopt corresponding strategies [1][3][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI rising 1.21%, Brent rising 1.20%, and SC falling 1.03% [7][8]. - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is the oversupply of crude oil in the off - season, and the short - term driver is the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [9]. - **Fundamentals**: As of the week of November 26, the number of US oil rigs decreased, and Mexico's oil production declined. OPEC expects an increase in global oil demand in 2025 and 2026. US crude oil inventories increased [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For the medium - to - long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production, and the oil price is in a low - price range. Technically, the short - term rebound is weak. Partially close short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC at [440 - 450] [11]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On November 26, the PG main contract closed at 4259 yuan/ton, up 0.66% [12]. - **Basic Logic**: The price is anchored to the cost of crude oil, with the cost side bearish and the demand side having some resilience. The basis is high, and the price is under pressure [13]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased slightly, demand from downstream chemical industries was relatively stable, and inventories increased [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply of upstream crude oil exceeds demand, and the price of LPG still has room to decline. Technically, the short - term rebound is under pressure. Do not chase the rise, and go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of PG at [4200 - 4300] [14]. L - **Market Performance**: The L01 contract closed at 6707 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [17]. - **Basic Logic**: The chemical sector rebounded, but the supply was under pressure, the demand was weak, and the cost support was insufficient [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production increased seasonally, the downstream start - up rate decreased, and the oil price was expected to decline in the medium term [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, reduce short positions. Medium - to - long - term, wait for rebounds to go short. Pay attention to the range of L at [6750 - 6850] [19]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP01 contract closed at 6265 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [21]. - **Basic Logic**: The fundamentals followed the cost side, with high inventory, weak demand, and the oil price still facing downward pressure [23]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream and mid - stream inventories were high, the devices were restarting, and the external and internal demand was insufficient [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: At the low price level, reduce short positions in the short - term. Medium - to - long - term, wait for rebounds to go short. Pay attention to the range of PP at [6350 - 6500] [23]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V01 contract closed at 4491 yuan/ton, down 0.1% [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The basis was repaired, the social inventory was high, the upward drive was insufficient, but the low valuation provided support [26]. - **Fundamentals**: The anti - dumping was unlikely to be implemented, and the export orders increased. The trading returned to the weak fundamentals [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The market maintained a high premium. Industries should hedge at high prices. Be cautious about short - selling and wait for bullish drivers. Pay attention to the range of V at [4400 - 4550] [26]. PX/PTA - **Market Performance**: The TA05 contract closed at 4710 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton [27]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure was relieved, the demand was relatively good, but the cost was under pressure, and there was a risk of inventory accumulation in December [28]. - **Fundamentals**: Some devices were under maintenance, the downstream polyester and weaving start - up rates were high, and the PX price might follow the decline of crude oil [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation and processing fees were not high. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips. Pay attention to the range of TA at [4650 - 4725] [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The EG05 contract closed at 3808 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton [29]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic start - up rate decreased, the new devices were put into production, the supply pressure increased, and the demand was relatively good but the orders were weakening [30]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic and overseas device status changed, the inventory increased slightly, and the cost was under pressure [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG at [3880 - 3930] [31]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The main contract position decreased slightly [34]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price in Taicang stabilized, the port basis strengthened, the inventory decreased but was still at a high level. The supply pressure was large, the demand improved, and the cost support was weak [34]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic devices increased production, overseas devices maintained stability, downstream demand improved, and the inventory decreased [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions at the low - valuation level. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 05 contract on dips [34]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The UR01 contract closed at 1654 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton [37]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure remained, the demand was mixed, the social inventory was high, and the export had been priced in. Be vigilant about the downward risk [38]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply was high, the domestic demand was weak before the year, the export was good, the inventory decreased slightly, and the cost was supported [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The fundamentals are weak. Pay attention to the opportunity to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of UR at [1625 - 1655] [40]. Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On November 25, the NG main contract closed at 4.481 US dollars per million British thermal units, down 4.09% [43]. - **Basic Logic**: The easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict led to concerns about the return of Russian gas, putting pressure on the gas price. The demand entered the peak season, providing some support [44]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of US natural gas drilling platforms increased, China's natural gas production increased, and US natural gas inventories decreased [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The demand is supported in the peak season, but the supply is sufficient, and the gas price is under pressure. Pay attention to the range of NG at [4.565 - 4.800] [45]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On November 26, the BU main contract closed at 3043 yuan/ton, up 0.81% [47]. - **Basic Logic**: The price is mainly anchored to crude oil. Affected by the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and South American geopolitics, there is still room for price compression [48]. - **Fundamentals**: The production plan decreased in December, the demand increased slightly, and the inventory decreased [48]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation is returning to normal, the supply is sufficient, and the demand is in the off - season. Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of BU at [2950 - 3050] [49]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG01 contract closed at 1037 yuan/ton, up 2.3% [51]. - **Basic Logic**: The cold - repair expectation provides support, but the supply is difficult to decline further, and the demand is weak [53]. - **Fundamentals**: The daily melting volume remained stable, the real - estate market was weak, and the deep - processing orders were at a low level [53]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions in the short - term. Medium - to - long - term, go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of FG at [990 - 1040] [53]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA01 contract closed at 1173 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [55]. - **Basic Logic**: The demand weakened, the supply was in a loose pattern in the medium - to - long - term, and the market was in a bearish consolidation [54]. - **Fundamentals**: Some devices were under maintenance or reduced production, the demand from the glass industry decreased, and the inventory was high [55]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions on the 01 alkali - glass spread. Be cautious about short - selling at the low price level. Medium - to - long - term, go short on rebounds [55].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the price, production and sales, and profit data of glass and soda ash, as well as the inventory situation of soda ash upstream [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price Changes**: From November 17 to November 24, 2025, most glass prices showed a downward trend. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass from Shahe Anquan dropped from 1070.0 to 1044.0, a decrease of 26.0; Shahe Great Wall dropped from 1053.0 to 1019.0, a decrease of 34.0 [2]. - **Production and Sales**: Shahe's glass production and sales reached 180, Hubei's was 119, East China's was 114, and South China's was 106. Shahe's factory production and sales strengthened, while its traders' low - price shipments were average, and the spot - futures shipments were poor. Hubei's factory transactions improved, but the mid - stream spot - futures transactions weakened [2]. - **Profit**: The profits of different regions and production methods varied. For example, North China's coal - fired glass profit decreased from 102.0 to 73.3, a decrease of 28.8; South China's natural gas glass profit remained at - 188.1 [2]. Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From November 17 to November 24, 2025, the prices of some soda ash products changed. For example, the price of Shahe heavy soda decreased from 1180.0 to 1150.0, a decrease of 30.0; the price of Qinghai heavy soda decreased from 900.0 to 870.0, a decrease of 30.0 [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The upstream inventory of the soda ash industry continued to decline, and the spot price of heavy soda in Hebei's delivery warehouse was about 1120, and about 1140 when delivered to Shahe [2].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Glass and Soda Ash Morning Report [1] - Date: November 25, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] Group 2: Glass Market Price Changes - From November 17 to November 24, the prices of 5mm glass in various regions showed different degrees of decline. For example, the price of 5mm glass from Shahe Anquan decreased from 1070.0 to 1044.0, a decrease of 26.0; the price of 5mm glass from Shahe Great Wall decreased from 1053.0 to 1019.0, a decrease of 34.0 [2]. - The prices of FG05, FG01 contracts and FG 1 - 5 spread also changed. The FG05 contract price decreased from 1165.0 to 1158.0, a decrease of 7.0; the FG01 contract price decreased from 1029.0 to 1013.0, a decrease of 16.0; the FG 1 - 5 spread decreased from -136.0 to -145.0, a decrease of 9.0 [2]. Profit Changes - The profits of glass production in different regions and using different energy sources also changed. For example, the profit of North China coal - fired glass decreased from 102.0 to 73.3, a decrease of 28.8; the profit of North China natural gas glass in the 05FG contract increased from -223.6 to -209.5, an increase of 14.1 [2]. Market Conditions - The production and sales of glass factories in Shahe strengthened, but the low - price sales of Shahe traders were around 1010, and the shipment was average. The transaction of glass factories in Hubei Province improved, with the price around 990. The transaction of Hubei's mid - stream futures and spot weakened [2]. - The production and sales rates of glass in different regions were: 152 in Shahe, 115 in Hubei, 110 in East China, and 103 in South China [2]. Group 3: Soda Ash Market Price Changes - From November 17 to November 24, the prices of heavy soda ash in different regions showed different trends. The price of Shahe heavy soda ash decreased from 1180.0 to 1150.0, a decrease of 30.0; the price of South China heavy soda ash remained unchanged at 1350.0 [2]. - The prices of SA05, SA01, SA09 contracts and SA01 - SA05 spread also changed. The SA05 contract price decreased from 1304.0 to 1249.0, a decrease of 55.0; the SA01 contract price decreased from 1231.0 to 1183.0, a decrease of 48.0; the SA01 - SA05 spread decreased from -73.0 to -66.0, a decrease of 7.0 [2]. Profit Changes - The profits of soda ash production in different regions and using different production methods also changed. For example, the profit of North China ammonia - soda method decreased from -288.4 to -313.4, a decrease of 25.0; the profit of North China combined - soda method decreased from -415.7 to -426.6, a decrease of 10.8 [2]. Market Conditions - The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei delivery warehouses was around 1130, and the price delivered to Shahe was around 1150 [2]. - The upstream inventory of the soda ash industry continued to decline [2].

游期现01-60到70，成交转好 玻璃产销：沙河80，湖北95，华东100，华南102 | | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025/11/14 2025/11/20 2025/11/21 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | 2025/11/14 2025/11/20 2025/11/21 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河重碱 | 1180.0 | 1130.0 | 1140.0 | -40.0 | 10.0 | SA05合 约 | 1301.0 | 1232.0 | 1235.0 | -66.0 | 3.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1200.0 | 1140.0 | 1150.0 | -50.0 | 10.0 | SA01合约 | 1226.0 | 1158.0 | 1170.0 | -56.0 | 12.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, last week's soda ash operating rate declined slightly, with some soda ash plants having new maintenance plans, leading to a further contraction in supply. However, the enterprise shipment volume was decent, with the weekly shipment scale increasing, and the demand side did not weaken significantly, driving inventory down. In terms of profit, the on - screen profits of the dual - alkali process and the ammonia - soda process have turned negative, and coal prices remain relatively high, which may support costs. It is expected that the short - term fundamentals of soda ash have not weakened significantly, and costs may be supported, with prices fluctuating at a low level [3]. - For glass, the daily melting volume of float glass in production decreased slightly, and the operating rate declined, indicating a contraction in supply. However, the downstream demand has poor resilience, the number of days of deep - processing orders from enterprises has changed from increasing to decreasing, and the inventory of float glass enterprises has further accumulated. In contrast, the supply of photovoltaic glass is stable, but the terminal industry has entered the year - end grid - connection stage, and the purchasing demand is limited. The inventory of photovoltaic glass enterprises has accumulated for two consecutive periods. In addition, it is expected that the domestic real estate support policies may be introduced recently, which may disturb the sentiment in the glass market. It is expected that the glass fundamentals will remain weak, but the new real estate policies may boost market sentiment, and glass prices may stabilize at a low level [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Important Data Summary | Indicator | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/14 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soda ash futures price | 1170 | 1226 | - 56.0 | Yuan/ton | | Soda ash spot price | 1140 | 1175 | - 35.0 | Yuan/ton | | Soda ash weekly output | 72.1 | 73.9 | - 1.8 | Ten thousand tons | | Soda ash shipment volume | 78.4 | 74.6 | 3.8 | Ten thousand tons | | Soda ash enterprise inventory | 164.4 | 170.7 | - 6.3 | Ten thousand tons | | Glass futures price | 987 | 1032 | - 45.0 | Yuan/ton | | Glass spot price: Shahe 5mm | 988 | 1028 | - 40.0 | Yuan/ton | | Float glass daily melting volume | 15.8 | 15.9 | - 0.1 | Ten thousand tons | | Float glass enterprise inventory | 6330.3 | 6324.7 | 5.6 | Ten thousand weight boxes | | Photovoltaic glass daily melting volume | 8.9 | 8.9 | 0.0 | Ten thousand tons | | Photovoltaic glass enterprise inventory | 29.4 | 29.1 | 0.3 | Days | [5] 3.2 Market Review - **Price**: The mainstream market price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area dropped from 1218 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week to 1207 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a weekly decline of about 11 yuan/ton. The spot market price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe area dropped from 1016 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week to 1000 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a weekly decline of about 16 yuan/ton [6]. - **Soda ash supply**: Last week, the total soda ash output was about 72.09 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.83 million tons; the operating rate was 83.14%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.31 percentage points. Some soda ash plants joined the maintenance queue. For example, the soda ash plant of Xiangyu Yanhua planned to reduce its load on November 18, with an expected impact period of 5 - 6 days and a total company capacity of about 1 million tons; the soda ash plant of Jiangsu Jingshen planned to reduce its operation on November 19, with an undetermined impact period and a total company capacity of about 700,000 tons. Currently, the on - screen price has fallen below the cost thresholds of the dual - alkali process and the ammonia - soda process, putting pressure on upstream profits, and the maintenance pressure may continue recently, with the supply side remaining weak [6]. - **Soda ash demand**: Last week, the daily melting volume of float glass in production was 15.81 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the previous period; the number of production lines in operation (excluding zombie production lines) was 222, the same as the previous period. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass in production was 8.94 million tons, the same as the previous period; the number of production lines in operation was 403, the same as the previous period. Affected by the weakening on - screen price, the profits of glass enterprises are under pressure, and the cost support strength of the coal - fired glass process is being focused on. Since the start - stop cost of glass production lines is high, cold - repair of the supply side may release a stronger bottom signal. From the inventory perspective, the inventory of photovoltaic glass enterprises was 29.4 days, an increase of 0.32 days from the previous period. The inventory of float glass was 6330.3 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 5.6 million weight boxes. Overall, the glass supply shows signs of contraction, and the drag on soda ash demand may gradually appear. The further increase in glass enterprise inventory and the weakening of deep - processing order days reflect the weak terminal demand. However, third - party institutions expect that domestic real estate support policies will be introduced recently, which may boost market sentiment. In the short term, attention should be paid to the strength of real estate policies and the progress of coal - to - gas conversion in the Shahe area, and prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [7]. - **Soda ash inventory**: Last week, the soda ash inventory was 1.6444 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 73,000 tons. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 757,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 128,000 tons; the inventory of heavy soda ash was 887,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 55,000 tons [7]. - **Price difference**: As of November 21, the price difference between soda ash and glass has dropped to around 200 yuan/ton and remained at a relatively low level during the reporting period. From the perspective of product fundamentals, the weak downstream pattern of glass is relatively certain, and there are no bright spots in the fundamentals. However, recent real - estate policies may boost glass prices, and there is still room for long - short games. The fundamentals of soda ash are temporarily better than those of glass, but as the scale of glass cold - repair increases, the resilience of soda ash fundamentals faces challenges. In the short term, both soda ash and glass face certain uncertainties, and the trend of the price difference is unclear, so it is advisable to wait and see [8]. 3.3 Industry News - Honglei Optics, a subsidiary of Hongtian Co., Ltd., completed the order delivery of semiconductor mask lithography machines and TGV glass substrate lithography machines. The mask direct - writing lithography machine has a minimum line - width and line - spacing resolution of 2.5μm and an alignment accuracy of ±2μm, meeting the mass - production lithography requirements of mask products with an L/S of 3μm. The other direct - writing lithography machine for the TGV glass substrate field has a minimum line - width and line - spacing resolution of 6μm and an alignment accuracy of ±4μm, meeting the production requirements of TGV glass substrates with a size of 510mm*515mm [9]. - Qibin Group has built float and photovoltaic glass production bases in Malaysia, with overseas production capacity accounting for 20%. The operation of the Shaba Guda silica sand mine and the supporting wharf has established an integrated overseas supply chain of "resources - production - sales" [9]. - The "coal - to - gas" policy is reshaping the competitive landscape of the glass industry. As an energy - intensive industry, glass production has long relied on coal as the core fuel. This transformation centered on clean - energy substitution not only triggers a structural change on the supply side but also promotes the industry's evolution from "fuel replacement" to "ecological reconstruction" and "value upgrading" [9].