渣打银行分析师Geoffrey Kendrick 预测，多项指标显示比特币将迎来新一轮上涨，看好比特币在Q2 冲上12 万美元。同时伯恩斯坦分析师也指 出，零售卖压耗尽、企业积累竞赛扩大以及比特币ETF 资金回流正推动「供应挤压」，可能将使比特币创下历史新高。 加密货币市场自上周开始迎来复苏，比特币近日也多次短暂突破95,000 美元关卡，撰稿当下又来到95,329 美元，币价表现相当坚挺。 比特币走势。图源：OKX 渣打银行：比特币将迎来新一轮上涨 市场目前高度关注比特币能否突破当前阻力，再次冲击10 万美元，甚至能否续写历史新高？ 对此背景，渣打银行全球数位资产研究主管Geoffrey Kendrick 在周一（28）发布的最新报告中就预测，比特币即将迎来下一波涨势。 他提出多项支持这一判断的指标：首先，美国国债期限溢价（与比特币价格高度相关）已达12 年来高点，或许暗示了比特币的看涨情绪；其次， 交易时段分析表明，美国投资者正积极寻求非美国资产，这一点自川普此前宣布对除中国以外的所有国家，实施90 天关税宽限后尤为明显。 此外，亚洲投资者也开始买进比特币，这进一步强化了上涨动能。同时，持有超过1,000 ...

Core Insights - The paper "Bonds vs. Equities: Information for Investment" explores the structural relationships between common financial indicators such as stock volatility, asset volatility, credit spreads, leverage ratios, and Tobin's Q, and their connection to corporate investment behavior [2][3] Group 1: Key Findings - Credit spreads and asset volatility are the only indicators with a clear predictive direction for corporate investment: credit spreads negatively impact investment, while asset volatility positively influences it [2][3] - The positive relationship between asset volatility and corporate investment challenges the traditional view that uncertainty suppresses investment, providing a new perspective [3] - The study emphasizes that controlling for leverage does not adequately reveal the positive effect of asset volatility on corporate investment, questioning the common practice of treating leverage as a control variable [3] Group 2: Implications - The findings suggest that scholars in finance and macroeconomics, market practitioners, and policymakers should consider the structural relationships between common risk indicators and leverage when discussing market risk, capital structure, and investment analysis [4] - The research provides new insights for understanding and predicting corporate investment behavior, highlighting the importance of distinguishing between the signals conveyed by different financial indicators [4]

Economic Overview - In 2024, China's GDP reached approximately 135 trillion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, with a five-year average growth rate of 4.9%[11] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.2%[11] - The urban unemployment rate averaged 5.1%, with 12.56 million new urban jobs created, exceeding the target of 12 million[11] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment grew by 3.2%, with manufacturing investment increasing by 9.2% and infrastructure investment rising by 4.4%[24] - Real estate investment declined by 10.6%, marking a significant drop compared to previous years[24] Trade and Exports - China's total goods trade reached $6.16 trillion, with exports of $3.58 trillion (up 5.9%) and imports of $2.59 trillion (up 1.1%)[24] - The trade surplus was $992.2 billion, an increase of $168.9 billion from the previous year[24] Economic Forecast for 2025 - GDP growth is projected to be around 4.9%, with quarterly growth rates estimated at 5.0%, 5.2%, 4.9%, and 4.5%[43] - CPI is expected to show a gradual increase after a dip in February, while PPI may decline by approximately 2%[46] Policy Recommendations - Emphasis on macroeconomic regulation to stabilize overall demand and support structural reforms[47] - Implementation of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to enhance economic recovery momentum[47]