Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the competitive landscape of music streaming platforms in China, highlighting the differences in membership systems, music libraries, and additional features among QQ Music, NetEase Cloud Music, Apple Music, and Migu Music [1][2][26]. Membership Systems - QQ Music, NetEase Cloud Music, and Migu Music offer free membership tiers, allowing users to access a portion of the music library without payment, while Apple Music requires a paid subscription after a one-month free trial [2][3]. - QQ Music has multiple membership levels, including luxury green diamond and super membership, while NetEase Cloud Music offers several tiers, including black vinyl VIP and SVIP [2][3]. Music Library Size - QQ Music is noted for its extensive music library, covering a wide range of genres and eras, making it a top choice for users seeking variety [5][10]. - Apple Music, while lacking in the ability to purchase music directly in China, has a rich library due to its global partnerships and is particularly strong in classical music [10][11]. - NetEase Cloud Music excels in independent music, attracting many independent artists through its music creator program [13]. - Migu Music, while not as extensive in mainstream music, has a unique advantage with its comprehensive collection of Jay Chou's songs due to a long-standing partnership with China Mobile [14][16]. Additional Features - NetEase Cloud Music is recognized for its vibrant user community and engaging comment sections, which enhance user interaction [17][19]. - QQ Music has developed a diverse audio content ecosystem, including audiobooks and podcasts, through partnerships with external platforms [21][22]. - Apple Music lacks additional content features, focusing solely on music, while Migu Music offers limited features compared to its competitors [22][26]. Platform Compatibility - All four music apps are available on mobile and tablet platforms, but only QQ Music and Migu Music offer native apps for HarmonyOS 5 [23][24]. - QQ Music, NetEase Cloud Music, and Apple Music provide desktop applications, while Migu Music only has a web version due to copyright restrictions [24][25]. User Preferences - QQ Music is recommended for users who prioritize a large music library and additional audio content, while Apple Music is suitable for those who prefer a straightforward subscription model [26][28]. - NetEase Cloud Music is ideal for fans of independent music and those who enjoy community engagement through comments [28]. - Migu Music is suggested as a supplementary option for Jay Chou fans or China Mobile users with bundled membership benefits [28]. Industry Trends - The article notes a shift in music consumption habits, with short video platforms like Douyin (TikTok) emerging as significant competitors to traditional music apps, emphasizing the need for music apps to evolve beyond just music listening [29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music (TME) with a current price of $15.09 and a fair value of $16.36 [9][40]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Tencent Music's profit performance exceeded expectations, balancing membership growth and ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) [3][9]. - The company is expected to continue enhancing its SVIP (Super VIP) membership scale and ARPU, leading to steady revenue growth [9][34]. - The online music revenue for Q4 2024 was reported at 58.31 billion RMB, showing a year-over-year increase of 16% [9][34]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: 27,752 million RMB - 2024A: 28,401 million RMB (growth rate: 2.3%) - 2025E: 30,973 million RMB (growth rate: 9.1%) - 2026E: 35,313 million RMB (growth rate: 14.0%) - 2027E: 38,160 million RMB (growth rate: 8.1%) [4] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023A: 5,923 million RMB - 2024A: 7,671 million RMB (growth rate: 29.5%) - 2025E: 8,699 million RMB (growth rate: 13.4%) - 2026E: 10,359 million RMB (growth rate: 19.1%) - 2027E: 11,645 million RMB (growth rate: 12.4%) [4] - **EPS and Valuation Ratios**: - EPS for 2025E is projected at 5.58 RMB, with a P/E ratio of 21.60 [4]. - The report anticipates a continuous improvement in gross margin, reaching 45.1% and 47.4% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [35]. Business Segment Performance - **Online Music Business**: - Expected to generate revenues of 252.31 billion RMB and 298.59 billion RMB in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 16% and 18% [34]. - The net profit margin for the online music segment is projected to be 27% and 29% for 2025 and 2026 [36]. - **Social Entertainment Business**: - Revenue is expected to decline, with projections of 57.42 billion RMB and 54.55 billion RMB for 2025 and 2026, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 14% and 5% [34][36]. Valuation Analysis - The fair value of Tencent Music is calculated at $16.36 per ADS, based on a segmented valuation approach [40]. - The online music business is valued at 28x P/E, while the social entertainment business is valued at 9x P/E [41].