Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market is still in the first half of a bull market, and investment should focus on three dimensions: the technology industry wave, global competitive output, and the reversal of cyclical dilemmas [1][5] - The A-share market is undergoing profound changes, breaking historical patterns in profit assessment and valuation, with non-financial ROE stabilizing for three consecutive quarters despite traditional economic sectors not showing significant improvement [2][3] - The electronic industry's institutional holdings have reached historical highs, challenging the old belief that a 20% holding indicates a peak, while TMT sector transaction volumes have also set new records during the AI boom [2][3] Group 2 - The future market's core engine relies on substantial improvements in corporate profits, driven by strong external demand and the globalization of Chinese manufacturing capabilities [4][5] - The AI revolution is another key driver, with no signs of bubble formation, and 2026 is expected to be a pivotal year for hardware products in the AI sector [4][6] - The industry configuration for 2026 should focus on technology chains, external demand chains, and opportunities arising from cyclical reversals, with a particular emphasis on sectors like electric equipment and new energy [5][6][7] Group 3 - The innovative drug sector is transitioning from a long R&D phase to an internationalization phase, with Chinese pharmaceutical companies becoming key players in global licensing transactions [7] - Future industries such as humanoid robots, hydrogen energy, and synthetic biology are expected to commercialize sooner due to their relative maturity, leading to improved profit growth expectations across key segments [7] - The industry configuration map for 2026 is clear, emphasizing technology growth as an offensive strategy and cyclical reversals as a stabilizing shield, while enhancing China's global competitive strength [7]

分析师点评 市场数据 2025 年 12 月 25 日 晨会速递 总量研究 【宏观】黄金权重下调，需要担忧么？——《光大投资时钟》第二十八篇 近期市场担忧明年 1 月彭博商品指数再平衡或带来黄金集中抛售，引发技术性调整。 但历史上看 2024 年和 2025 年也曾经出现类似情况，但对市场并未造成冲击。一方 面，指数调整涉及到的资金体量并不大，对市场流动性影响有限；另一方面，部分参 与者可能会提前预判甚至"抢跑"。考虑到明年 1 月金价上升势头或延续，市场成交 量或较为活跃，指数再平衡带来的技术性抛压影响相对有限。 【宏观】关税扰动边际消退，美国经济增速回升——2025 年三季度美国经济数据点 评 美国 2025 年三季度 GDP 环比增速回升，主要来自"抢进口"效应减弱、对美采购增 加下的净出口贡献，消费在关税扰动消退后也开始修复。其中，个人消费与净出口分 别拉动 GDP 增速 2.4 个、1.6 个百分点。从降息角度看，受政府停摆影响，四季度美 国 GDP 增速或再次承压，但基数效应下，明年一季度美国经济数据或显著上行，美 联储在 2026 年一季度暂缓降息的概率较大。 【债券】商业银行大幅增持利率债—— ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying underfollowed, promising stocks in sectors such as consumer retail, restaurants, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) companies. It advocates for a long-term investment perspective focused on companies with a competitive advantage that can adapt to industry changes [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The company aims to identify businesses with a broad moat or deep-rooted competitive advantage that will persist over the years [1]. - In fast-changing industries, the focus is on whether companies possess the fundamental strength to adapt without losing their competitive edge [1]. - Quarterly developments are evaluated in the context of a company's long-term strategy, with recommendations for buy/sell positions based on significant deviations from this strategy [1].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：尧望后势 历史上的牛市躁动行情，启动时点和领涨结构有何规律？ 复盘2008年以来历轮躁动行情，从启动时间和催化因素来看，大致可以分为以下三类： 1月-2月启动（标蓝）：历史上大部分躁动行情启动的时间点。 | 表1、2008年以来历轮岁末年初躁动行情启动因素及领涨风格复盘 | | --- | | स्टेसि | 起始日 | 结束日 | 启动原因 | | 躁动行情期间 | | 年初以来 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 区间领涨风格 | | 区间领涨风格 | | | | 2008年 | 2008/11/5 | 2009/2/16 | "四万亿"改策 | 先进制造 | 科技 | 消费 | 消费 | 科技 | 金融地产 | | 2009年 | 2009/9/30 | 2010/1/19 | 国内企业盈利增长强劲、 | 科技 | 演奏 | 先进制造 | 先进制造 | 金融地产 | 滴尿 | | | | | 海外QE ...

Group 1 - Major institutions are optimistic about the A-share market's year-end performance, focusing on technology and consumer sectors, with expectations of a market rebound driven by policy support and capital inflow [2][7] - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has remained unchanged for seven months, with a current rate of 3.0% for one year and 3.5% for five years, but is expected to decrease slightly next year due to economic resilience and monetary policy adjustments [2][7] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years, leading to a stable performance in global markets and a favorable outlook for the A-share market [2][7] Group 2 - Precious metals have reached new highs, driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts, with gold, silver, and platinum prices significantly increasing [3][8] - Over 100 money market funds have seen their annualized yields drop below 1%, prompting fund companies to limit purchases to maintain returns amid a liquidity surplus [3][8] - SpaceX is planning the largest IPO in history, with a proposed valuation of $1.5 trillion, utilizing an innovative listing method that bypasses traditional IPO processes [3][9] Group 3 - Xiaomi's smartphone market share has reached 13.6%, maintaining a top-three position globally, while also achieving significant milestones in its automotive and AI initiatives [4][9] - The Hainan Free Trade Zone concept has surged, with 22 stocks hitting the daily limit, driven by policy incentives and a booming tourism market [4][10] - China Shenhua is set to acquire core assets from the State Energy Group for 133.6 billion yuan, enhancing its competitive position in the energy sector and increasing total assets by over 200 billion yuan [5][10] Group 4 - The consumer sector is expected to see increased investment, with predictions of double-digit growth over the next two years, supported by government policies aimed at boosting consumption [5][10]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong technology sector is experiencing a rebound, driven by continuous capital inflows and positive developments in AI applications, creating a favorable investment environment [8][9]. Group 1: Fund Performance - The Hang Seng Technology ETF (513260) has seen a nearly 1% increase, with a trading volume exceeding 260 million yuan and a cumulative net inflow of over 640 million yuan over 37 trading days, bringing its total size to 7.154 billion yuan [1]. - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology 30 ETF (520980) rose by 1.19%, with a trading volume surpassing 245 million yuan, and has recorded a net inflow of over 188 million yuan over the past six days [2]. Group 2: Market Trends - The technology sector in Hong Kong is predominantly in the green, with notable gains from companies like SenseTime (over 5%), SMIC (over 6%), and Huahong Semiconductor (over 5%), while Xiaomi Group saw a decline of over 2% [4]. - Southbound capital has consistently flowed into the Hong Kong technology sector, with Xiaomi Group leading net purchases at 7.471 billion HKD over the past week [6]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy shows signs of stability, with the November core CPI rising by 2.6%, below market expectations, and non-farm employment increasing by 64,000, although the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% [9]. - In China, the industrial output grew by 4.8% year-on-year in November, while retail sales increased by 1.3%, indicating a mixed economic outlook [9]. Group 4: AI Developments - Major Chinese tech companies are making significant strides in AI, with Ant Group's AI health app rapidly climbing to the third position in the Apple App Store, and Xiaomi releasing a new foundational language model with competitive capabilities [10]. - AI is becoming a core growth engine for companies, as evidenced by Tencent's marketing services revenue growth of 21%, with AI contributing significantly to this increase [11]. Group 5: Investment Outlook - The external environment is improving, with expectations of continued capital inflows into Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the technology sector, which is seen as a long-term investment focus [12]. - The valuation of the Hang Seng Technology Index is at a historical low, providing potential for upward movement compared to U.S. tech stocks [12].

明年关注低位补涨 20251221 摘要 预计 2026 年非金融企业盈利增速在 5%-10%区间，低于市场普遍预期， 主要受宏观经济指标如 GDP、CPI 和 PPI 影响，宏观情景推演法显示增 速约为 4.8%。 自下而上分析显示，卖方对核心公司盈利预期汇总后增速约为 22%，但 历史经验表明通常高估 10-20 个百分点，实际增速可能为个位数。 分板块看，周期、医药和科技板块增速预计提升，TMT 板块按今年斜率 外推明年可达 32%，制造业和消费板块预测谨慎，中性情景下整体增速 约为 9.9%。 历史数据显示，各行业在盈利周期上行时呈现类似斜率，基于此规律对 未来各行业进行线性外推预测，消费增长预计负两位数，制造业增速放 缓至 10%左右。 周期性行业和制造业利润占比达六成，消费占两成，科技板块不到 20%，尽管 TMT 增速高，但利润占比较低，对整体业绩拉动较弱。 股价走势与利润走势基本同步，盈利顶点通常领先市场顶点 1~2 个月， 上半年市场问题不大，利润增速改善的行业比例可作为领先指标。 2025 年估值分化明显，高估值板块进一步拔高难度大，明年投资策略 应更均衡，中低位板块或有补涨机会，关注低估 ...

还有一周，2025年就要过去了。此时此刻，各类年度报告正在紧锣密鼓的做最后的筹备，飞行航线、消费记录、理财战绩、听歌时长、书影音评分排行、 外卖最晚的点单… AI以前所未有之势嵌入各行各业的年代，算法极尽精微，从数据汪洋里为每个人捕捉生活的痕迹，投资作为我们生活的重要组成部分，也需要一份年度 复盘报告。 你会如何回望2025年的A股投资？过去一年，A股市场在分化中演进：有人看到指数新高，有人感受结构变迁；有人猫冬保住收益，有人已在布局来年。 #√￣型走势下 在哪里赚过、在哪里错过 2025年，在中国科技叙事引领下，A股走出了资产大年。上证指数大体呈"根号型（√￣）"走势，拾级而上，中枢点位从年初 3200 点抬升至 3900 点左 右。 （来源：Wind，粤开证券研究所） 一季度，以 DeepSeek 为代表的科技突破，重塑了中国叙事，提振了社会预期，引发了市场对科技股乃至中国资产的重估热潮。上证指数于 1-3 月期间持 续走强，区间最高涨幅达 8.5%。 （来源：Wind） 二季度，关税战一度引发市场恐慌，砸出"黄金坑"，但由于我国完备工业体系给予的底气、稳市资金入市带来的信心以及宏观政策的有力支撑，市场情 ...

Global and A-share Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance last week, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index experiencing the largest decline of 2.99%. The Hong Kong market also saw a decrease, with the Hang Seng Index down by 1.10%. The best-performing ETFs were primarily those tracking the defense and military sectors [1][12][15]. ETF New Issuance Statistics - In the A-share market, 11 stock ETFs were reported last week, and 7 new stock ETFs were established. No new equity ETFs were launched in the US market during the same period [2][17][19]. Fund Flows in A-share Market - The top 10 stock ETFs by net inflow were dominated by the CSI A500 Index ETFs, with a total net inflow exceeding 30 billion yuan. Conversely, the top 10 stock ETFs by net outflow were mainly from the military sector [2][24][25]. - The net inflow for broad-based ETFs was led by those tracking the CSI A500 Index, while the ETFs tracking the SSE 50 Index saw significant outflows [2][27]. Fund Flows in US Market - In the US market, political-themed ETFs saw the highest net inflows, while life sciences-themed ETFs experienced net outflows. Active ETFs based on the S&P 500 Index had the largest net inflows, while those based on the Russell 3000 Index saw outflows [3][24]. ETF Strategy Performance - The performance of the diffusion indicator + RRG ETF rotation strategy yielded a return of -0.31%, with excess returns relative to the CSI Equal Weight Index and the CSI 300 Index at -1.16% and -0.03%, respectively. The 50% base + intraday momentum strategy showed varying returns across different ETFs, with the SSE 50 ETF achieving a return of 0.08% [4][28].

光大证券指出，历史来看，A股市场中几乎每年都存在"春季躁动"行情。本周三市场的强力上涨或许标 志着2026年跨年行情已经开启。一方面，政策有望持续发力，经济增长有望保持在合理区间，进一步夯 实资本市场繁荣发展的基础。另一方面，政策红利释放，有望提振市场信心，进一步吸引各类资金积极 流入。政策有望持续发力，叠加各类资金有望积极流入，市场有望震荡上行。 行业配置方面，结合往 年规律及当前市场环境，关注成长及消费板块。对于成长板块而言，历史来看，"春季躁动"期间，TMT 及先进制造板块的弹性相对更大；除往年值得关注的成长方向外，本轮行情中消费板块也值得关注。一 方面，当前政策对于消费板块重视程度较高，消费板块有望持续得到政策催化。另一方面，消费板块今 年相对滞涨，或许有望获得部分"踏空"资金的青睐。 ...