Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the development of technology innovation bonds (科创债) in China, highlighting their policy support, financing characteristics, and the challenges they face in risk pricing and structural alignment with the needs of technology enterprises [2][9]. Group 1: Policy Support and Market Development - In May 2025, the People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission jointly released an announcement to upgrade the policy framework for technology innovation bonds, expanding the range of issuers and optimizing bond structures [2]. - The issuance scale of technology innovation bonds reached 348.3 billion yuan in May 2025, marking the highest monthly record since 2022 [2]. - The technology innovation bond market is evolving into a "technology board" within the bond market, facilitating deep integration between finance and technology [2][4]. Group 2: Characteristics of Technology Innovation Bonds - Technology innovation bonds are issued by enterprises in the technology sector, with funds primarily allocated for technological innovation [3]. - The market for technology innovation bonds has become more precise in terms of fund usage and issuer types, with strict requirements for funds to be used in technology innovation [5][6]. - The issuance of technology innovation bonds has diversified, expanding from local government financing platforms to include various types of technology enterprises and investment institutions [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Challenges - The technology innovation bond market has seen significant growth, with issuance volumes increasing from 277.8 billion yuan in 2022 to 1217.8 billion yuan in 2024 [8]. - Despite the rapid development, challenges remain in risk pricing, term structure, and investor composition, as technology enterprises often have long cycles and high risks that do not align with the short-term nature of traditional credit bonds [9][10]. - The need for improved information disclosure and transparency in the operations and innovation progress of technology enterprises is emphasized to enhance investor confidence [10]. Group 4: Future Directions and Recommendations - To achieve high-quality development of the technology innovation bond market, there is a need for innovative product structures and credit protection mechanisms to increase risk tolerance among investors [11]. - Encouraging institutional investors to enhance their research and risk assessment capabilities is crucial for attracting long-term capital into the market [11][12]. - Continuous collaboration among regulatory bodies and market participants is essential to foster a healthy and orderly development of the technology innovation bond market [12].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market's bull market does not guarantee profits for all industries, as there is significant divergence in performance among sectors, with some industries outperforming the market while others lag behind [1] Historical Bull Market Analysis - Historical data from the last decade indicates that each bull market's leading sectors are closely aligned with the prevailing development trends of the era [1] - In the 2005-2006 bull market, industries such as non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, and real estate benefited from urbanization and economic reforms [1] - The 2014-2015 bull market saw a rise in TMT sectors due to the emergence of smart manufacturing and new consumption trends, alongside a stimulus-driven infrastructure boom [1] - Post-2019, sectors like liquor and pharmaceuticals thrived due to consumption upgrades, while the "dual carbon" policy led to a surge in carbon-neutral industries [1][2] Industry Performance in Bull Markets - The analysis of the top 10 performing industries in each bull market reveals that machinery, building materials, and defense industries consistently ranked high, with significant gains even in years they did not make the top 10 [3] ETF Investment Strategies - **Machinery Sector**: The machinery sector, particularly in engineering and robotics, has maintained high performance. The Tianhong CSI Robotics ETF (159770) has a significant scale of over 7 billion, indicating strong market interest [4] - **Defense Industry**: The defense sector has shown consistent high performance across all four major bull markets from 2000 to 2021, with ETFs like Guotai CSI Defense ETF (512660) and Fuguo CSI Defense Leaders ETF (512710) exceeding 10 billion in scale [6] - **Building Materials**: The building materials sector is expected to benefit from increased demand and supply adjustments, with ETFs like Guotai CSI All-Index Building Materials ETF (159745) showing scale advantages [7]

在A股市场沪指创出十年新高的时刻，权益类基金再次成为投资者关注的焦点。Wind数据显示，过去十 年间（2015年8月20日至2025年8月20日），全市场1053只权益类基金（仅统计主代码）中，正收益产品 数量占据绝对主流，共有958只收益为正，占比超过90%，仅有95只收益为负，体现了主动权益基金在 长期维度上创造超额收益的能力。 | 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 近十年累计单位 净值增长率 | 今年以来回报 | 成立以来回报 | 基金规模 | 基金经理 | 基金成立日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (%) | (%) | (%) | ((2) | | | | 1 | 166301.OF | 华商新趋势优选 | 456.21 | 25.10 | 435.29 | 44.69 | 章文 | 2015/5/14 | | 2 | 000628.OF | 大成高鑫A | 373.82 | 10.82 | 400.83 | 179.16 | 刘旭 | 2015/2/3 | | 3 | 001437.OF | ...

摘要 8月以来，美联储或将于9月的议息会议上重新开启降息并为全球注入大量流动性的共识不断被强化，已成为当前全球资本市场最核心焦点之一。近期全球资 金风险偏好持续提升，全球主要股市多数上涨。国内资金风险偏好同样明显提升，沪指本周再创新高，并一度站上3700点。结构上，TMT板块领涨，非银 金融拉升。 本周公布的经济数据略不及预期，显示当前国内经济基本面持续向好的态势仍需稳固。但从中长期看，"反内卷"政策将推动落后产能有序退出，有望解决当 前供给过剩问题，提升工业产能利用率和推动再通胀，是本轮经济转型的必备一环。因此，短期经济增速放缓不改变长期改善趋势，后续A股盈利能力也有 望迎来拐点。 但另一方面，市场流动性持续提升。月度日均成交额占A股流通市值比例明显抬升，上升至2015年以来的74.80%百分位。近期杠杆资金加速进场，融资余额 连续刷新年内高点，本周融资余额已突破两万亿，与2015年流动性好转驱动的牛市时期2.27万亿元的融资余额峰值较为接近，且周内持续冲高。 从数据来看，两融余额虽然接近历史高点，但当前A股流通市值也较2015年峰值提升超50%。从两融余额占A股流通市值来看，本轮杠杆资金体量仍处于 201 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that during the US interest rate cut cycle, Hong Kong stocks may exhibit better resilience than US stocks, benefiting from improved liquidity and risk appetite, with a focus on TMT, energy, and telecommunications sectors [1] - The current market is primarily characterized by stagflation trading, with a shift towards easing trading scenarios and recession trading scenarios, leading to significant gains in Hong Kong stocks, which are close to the gains seen in easing trading [1] - Before inflation concerns ease, sectors like TMT and energy in Hong Kong stocks are expected to outperform, mainly due to incremental investments from fiscal and tariff negotiations [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Technology ETF (513020) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index (931573), focusing on technology-related Hong Kong listed companies traded through Stock Connect, covering sectors such as information technology, electronic components, and interactive media and services [1] - The index selects 30 stocks that meet the Stock Connect criteria and have high market capitalization, emphasizing the hardware and application aspects of the artificial intelligence industry chain to reflect the overall performance of AI infrastructure-related listed companies [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Cathay CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF Initiated Link C (015740) and Initiated Link A (015739) [1]

Group 1 - The market is currently influenced by expectations of liquidity easing, with high anticipation for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in September, leading to a strong performance in global stock markets [1] - Domestic stock markets are experiencing an upward trend due to structural interest rate reductions, such as subsidies for personal consumption loans, and policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, including "anti-involution" measures and birth subsidies [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached new highs, surpassing the 2021 peak, while the Shenzhen Component Index is in a recovery phase, indicating a strong market sentiment and increased investor confidence [2] Group 2 - The trading volume in the market has exceeded 2.7 trillion yuan, showing an increase compared to the previous week, with a significant number of stocks rising, particularly in the TMT sector [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through the upper boundary of a weekly trading range, which has now turned from a resistance level to a support level, indicating a bullish trend [2] - There is a need to monitor for signs of volume stagnation as trading volume approaches 3 trillion yuan, which could indicate potential market corrections [2]

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic environment is showing steady improvement, with positive factors gradually increasing, indicating a trend towards high-quality economic development [1] Economic Performance - The actual GDP growth rate for the first half of the year reached 5.3%, reflecting a significant increase in confidence among social entities [1] - The wealth effect from the rise in A-shares this year has partially offset the downward pressure on housing prices, aiding in the gradual recovery of residents' balance sheets [1] Government Policy and Spending - Government spending remains robust, providing strong support for economic stabilization, with net financing of government bonds in social financing continuing to grow significantly [1] - The focus of government spending is directed towards consumption, infrastructure investment, and livelihood expenditures [1] Monetary Indicators - The M1 growth rate increased by 1.0 percentage points from the previous month to 5.6%, indicating improved liquidity in the economy [1] Policy Effects - The effects of the "Two New" policies and "anti-involution" policies are gradually becoming evident, with signs of marginal improvement in prices [1] - The core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year in July, the highest level since March 2024 [1] Sectoral Investment - There is a notable acceleration in the transition between old and new growth drivers, with high-intensity investment in emerging sectors such as aerospace and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from the accelerated commercialization of AI and the continuous inflow of southbound funds, with clear signs of valuation recovery [1] - The AI technology and new consumption sectors have significant growth potential, and southbound funds are enhancing their marginal pricing power in the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment [1] - The overall market sentiment is positive, with the IT sector showing substantial gains, driven by rising expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Technology ETF (513020) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index (931573), focusing on leading companies in the technology sector available through the Stock Connect [1] - The index emphasizes market capitalization, R&D intensity, and revenue growth quality in its constituent stock selection, covering TMT (Media, Computer, Internet, Electronics) and automotive industries [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Cathay CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF Initiated Link A (015739) and Link C (015740) [1]

中泰证券指出，港股市场有望继续受益于 AI 商业化进程加速和南向资金的持续流入，当前港股估值修 复迹象明显。AI 科技和新消费板块具备较大的成长空间，南向资金对港股的边际定价能力增强，尤其 是在低利率环境下，将吸引更多资金配置港股。中长期来看，港股的估值优势和产业转型升级趋势仍值 得期待，科技与消费板块有望在政策和资金双重加持下持续上涨。近期港股板块整体表现较好，IT 板 块涨幅较大，市场情绪持续升温带动港股上涨，美联储降息预期升温也带动了港股市场风险偏好回升。 港股科技ETF（513020）跟踪的是港股通科技指数（931573），该指数从港股通范围内选取涉及TMT （技术、媒体和电信）及汽车行业的科技龙头上市公司证券作为指数样本，重点关注具有较高市值、研 发投入较大且营收增长较快的企业。成分股主要覆盖电子、互联网等科技创新领域，以反映港股通范围 内科技行业上市公司证券的整体表现。 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证港股通科技ETF发起联接A（015739），国泰中证港股通科技 ETF发起联接C（015740）。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from the accelerated commercialization of AI and the continuous inflow of southbound funds, with clear signs of valuation recovery [1] - The AI technology and new consumption sectors have significant growth potential, and the marginal pricing power of southbound funds in the Hong Kong stock market is increasing, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [1] - The medium to long-term outlook for the Hong Kong stock market remains positive due to its valuation advantages and the trend of industrial transformation and upgrading, with the technology and consumption sectors likely to continue rising under dual support from policies and funds [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Technology ETF (513020) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index (931573), focusing on TMT (including media, computers, internet, electronics) and the automotive industry, selecting large-cap technology leaders listed on the Hong Kong stock market [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Cathay CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF Initiated Link A (015739) and Cathay CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF Initiated Link C (015740) [1]