证券研究报告 宏观 大消费需求初现暖意 华泰研究 2025 年 3 月 16 日│中国内地 国内周报 研究员 易峘 evayi@htsc.com 研究员 吴宛忆 SAC No. S0570524090005 SFC No. BVN199 wuwanyi@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 研究员 常慧丽，PhD SAC No. S0570520110002 SFC No. BJC906 changhuili@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 联系人 王洺硕，CFA，PhD wangmingshuo@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 一周概览 整体而言，相较于去年春节假期后消费需求及价格指标明显走弱，今年部分 消费量价有边际企稳的积极迹象，或部分受气温回暖提振：上周二手房成交 同比仍在高位、尤其一线城市在高基数下继续回升，或显示大城市居民购房 需求偏强；同时，3 月首周汽车销售额同比回升，上周市内出行活动同比亦 走强。复工方面行业分化加剧，部分工业品价格亦有上行：制造业生产整体 回暖，但建筑钢材成交量同比走弱，春节后铜价/铝价持续上行，光伏产业链 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the investment strategy of "Technology + Consumption" for 2025, with technology already forming a consensus expectation while the consumption aspect still has potential to be explored [1][9]. - The report identifies two key expectation gaps: the first being that even with weak fiscal expansion, retail sales (社零) will exhibit higher elasticity [2][12]. - The report anticipates that as the fiscal spending cycle transitions from a contraction phase in 2023-2024 to a weak expansion phase in 2025, retail sales will show significant upward elasticity [2][12]. Group 2 - The second expectation gap highlights the easing of local debt pressure on consumption, indicating that provinces with higher debt burdens will see more pronounced rebounds in retail sales in categories such as jewelry, clothing, automobiles, and cosmetics [3][18]. - The report suggests that the market may experience short-term consolidation due to high market sentiment, profit-taking, and the calendar effect of the Two Sessions, but the core driving force of the current market remains unchanged [20][21]. - Industry allocation recommendations include four key sectors: (1) Technology growth focusing on AI and autonomous control, (2) Consumption driven by policy and endogenous recovery, (3) Cost improvement sectors, and (4) Structural opportunities in overseas markets [21][22].

行业研究 市场研究部 2025 年 3 月 11 日 交运行业周报（2025/3/3-3/9） 行情综述 上周沪深 300 指数上涨 1.39%，申万交运行业指数小幅小幅小涨 0.15%，落后大盘 1.24 个百分点，在 31 个申万一级行业中排名第 26。上周二级细分行业中，物流板块（+0.70%）、航空机场板块 （+0.48%）和航运港口板块（+0.45%）实现上涨，铁路公路板块 （-1.00%）出现回落。上周三级行业中，涨幅最大的三个板块为公 路货运（+6.53%）、仓储物流（+1.09%）和航运（+1.05%）；跌 幅最大的三个板块为高速公路（-2.56%）、港口（-0.61%）和原材 料供应链服务（-0.19%）。 个股：上周交运板块 132 家上市公司中，71 家实现上涨，涨幅前三 为华光源海(+15.14%)、传化智联（+9.52%)和怡亚通(+8.21%)；跌 幅前三为皖通高速（-8.70%)、粤高速 A（-8.35%)和普路通(-5.76%)。 估值方面：截至 2025 年 3 月 9 日，申万交运板块 PE（TTM） 16.35 倍，位于近 5 年的 66.06%分位点。 投资建议 根据 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report discusses the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the shipping market, highlighting that the geopolitical situation has significantly reshaped global energy supply chains and commodity trade patterns. A potential ceasefire could bring new risks and opportunities for oil and dry bulk shipping [6][19]. - For oil shipping, the report outlines two scenarios: a partial ceasefire where the U.S. lifts sanctions but Europe maintains restrictions, leading to limited changes in trade flows; and a complete ceasefire that could significantly alter demand dynamics for different types of tankers [20][39]. - In dry bulk shipping, the report emphasizes that post-war reconstruction in Ukraine could drive structural demand growth, with significant needs for construction materials estimated to exceed $500 billion, potentially increasing shipping demand by over 1% annually [6][79]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Developments - The report details ongoing ceasefire negotiations, indicating that while some progress has been made, significant geopolitical imbalances remain, particularly with U.S. influence dominating the talks [6][19]. - The conflict has restructured global energy supply chains, with implications for shipping markets depending on the outcome of ceasefire negotiations [19]. Section 2: Oil Shipping Dynamics - The report analyzes the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on oil shipping, noting a shift in trade flows from Europe to Asia, particularly to China and India, which have significantly increased their imports of Russian oil [20][24]. - It highlights the emergence of a "shadow fleet" of older tankers used by Russia to circumvent sanctions, which now constitutes over 51% of the global shadow fleet capacity [32]. - The report presents two scenarios for the future of oil shipping: a partial ceasefire with limited impact on trade flows and a complete ceasefire that could lead to a demand increase for VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers) while reducing demand for Aframax tankers [46][39]. Section 3: Dry Bulk Shipping Opportunities - The report discusses the potential recovery of Ukrainian grain and iron ore exports post-ceasefire, estimating that Ukraine could restore 70-80% of its pre-war export levels within a few months, significantly benefiting dry bulk shipping [50][53]. - It emphasizes the reconstruction needs in Ukraine, which could drive demand for construction materials and thus increase shipping volumes by approximately 1.89 million tons annually, representing about 3.41% of global dry bulk shipping volume [84][79]. Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that could benefit from the evolving shipping landscape, particularly those involved in oil and dry bulk shipping, recommending stocks such as China Merchants Energy, COSCO Shipping Energy, and Haitong Development [87].

Investment Rating - The report recommends investment in several companies within the aviation and logistics sectors, including China National Aviation (601111.SH), Southern Airlines (600029.SH), and Huamao Logistics (603128.SH) [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recovery of air travel demand, with domestic ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) for major airlines exceeding 100% of 2019 levels, indicating a strong rebound in the aviation sector [19][22]. - The logistics sector is expected to benefit from the growth of cross-border e-commerce, driven by domestic demand and the expansion of local manufacturing brands [8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of smart logistics and digital transformation in enhancing operational efficiency and meeting consumer demands [63][66]. Summary by Sections Aviation and Airports - As of December 2024, domestic ASK recovery rates for major airlines reached 132.45% for China National Aviation and 153.98% for Spring Airlines compared to 2019 [19]. - International flight recovery rates vary, with the UK at 112% and Italy at 122% compared to 2019 [22]. - The report notes that the optimism surrounding airport duty-free agreements has been priced in, with future international passenger flow recovery being a key focus [7]. Shipping and Ports - The SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) reported a value of 1436 points as of March 7, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 5.21% and a year-on-year decrease of 23.83% [28]. - The BDTI (Baltic Dirty Tanker Index) was at 879 points, down 0.86% week-on-week and down 26.01% year-on-year [33]. - The report indicates a significant decline in shipping rates across various routes, with the CCFI (China Containerized Freight Index) showing a decrease of 7.70% year-on-year [28]. Road and Rail - In December 2024, railway freight volume increased by 8.46% year-on-year, reaching 4.59 million tons, while road freight volume grew by 9.94% to 37.74 million tons [39][46]. - The report highlights the expansion of rail capacity in the southwest region, enhancing operational efficiency [60]. Express Logistics - The express delivery sector achieved a revenue of 137.89 billion yuan in December 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.60% [49]. - The average price per express delivery item decreased by 13.61% to 7.75 yuan [49]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the express logistics sector, driven by e-commerce and the development of differentiated competitive advantages among leading companies [8].

Group 1: ESG Disclosure Changes - The ESG mandatory disclosure for listed companies has undergone a "blood exchange" adjustment, with 27 new companies, primarily in banking, hydropower, and transportation, being added, while 27 companies from the pharmaceutical, electronics, and food and beverage sectors have been removed [2] - The total number of national-level green factories has reached 6,430, with Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong leading in quantity [3] Group 2: Policy Developments - The State Council approved the "Action Plan for Improving the Recycling and Utilization System of New Energy Vehicle Power Batteries," which aims to enhance the recycling capabilities of power batteries [1] - By 2025, 16 provinces, including Guangdong, will focus on developing zero-carbon parks, while cities like Shanghai and Jiangsu will promote green buildings as new growth points [1] Group 3: Industry Insights - The establishment of the Macau International Carbon Emission Trading Exchange aims to connect domestic and international carbon markets, enhancing the role of social capital in carbon market development [4][5] - The introduction of the electricity carbon footprint factor will aid in calculating the lifecycle carbon emissions from electricity consumption, which is more complex than the traditional CO2 emission factor [7] Group 4: Climate and Investment Opportunities - The challenges posed by climate change and the transition to a low-carbon economy present unprecedented investment opportunities, with increasing regulatory requirements for information disclosure in the Asia-Pacific and Europe [9] - The focus on building zero-carbon parks is a key challenge for achieving positive investment returns, as highlighted in the Central Economic Work Conference [8]