1月12日开盘，伦敦金、伦敦银双双刷新历史新高，A股贵金属板块同步走高，贵金属市场迎来"狂 飙"时刻。此轮行情背后，是地缘冲突、央行增持与美联储政策预期等多重因素交织。但在投资热潮之 下，非法投资骗局亦伺机滋生。分析人士指出，投资者务必通过国家正规交易市场参与贵金属投资，并 应理性看待黄金上涨趋势，采取少量轻仓、逢低买进的策略，这是当前较为稳妥的方式，切勿轻易加杠 杆投资。 金银同步刷新历史纪录 贵金属市场再迎历史性时刻。1月12日，伦敦金现、伦敦银现同步强势攀升，截至17:00，最高分别突破 4600美元/盎司、84美元/盎司，双双刷新历史新高。受火热行情传导，A股贵金属关联个股亦表现亮 眼，截至收盘，明牌珠宝涨超10%，盛达资源涨超8%，中国白银集团、湖南白银、晓程科技均涨超 5%，周大福、中国黄金国际、周生生、老铺黄金等多股纷纷跟涨。 消息面上，据央视新闻，美国哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官办公室已对美联储主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查。特 朗普自2025年1月第二次就任美国总统后，始终敦促美联储降息以提振经济、降低政府借贷成本，因不 满降息进度，特朗普多次要求鲍威尔辞职。 官方储备持续增持也成为行情的重要支撑。1月7 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The stock index futures market had a significant rise on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a 17 - day consecutive increase and hitting a ten - year high. After the previous sharp rise, the index may experience short - term oscillations and adjustments. If the trading volume can remain above 3 trillion, the market risk is relatively low; otherwise, attention should be paid. It is recommended to focus on the structure rather than the index and pay attention to the possible impact of the annual report performance announcements at the end of January. Industries such as domestic computing power & equipment, autonomous driving & robots, AI applications, and non - bank finance are worth following, as well as themes like controlled nuclear fusion and brain - computer interfaces [4]. - The bond market sentiment improved due to the escalation of geopolitical tensions. The bearish positions in treasury bond futures left the market, driving the market to rebound. Although the equity market is still strong, the allocation demand for bonds by macro funds may increase for hedging purposes under geopolitical risks. It is not advisable to short long - term bonds at present, and it is recommended to try to go long on TL2603 with a light position [8]. - The precious metals sector strengthened in the Asian market today, with silver leading the rise. The criminal investigation of the Fed Chairman may increase the internal divergence of the Fed in subsequent monetary policy decisions, which is bullish for precious metals in the medium term. After a short - term fermentation, the market is expected to return to the fundamentals, maintaining the trend of being easy to rise and hard to fall. It is recommended to hold the positions entered at a low level during the commodity index re - balancing last week, and those with heavy positions can reduce their positions appropriately. It is not advisable to chase high at the current price [10][12][13]. - The container shipping index's main contract EC2604 rose significantly on Monday due to the shipping companies' price increase for February online booking rates and the convergence of inter - month spreads. The adjustment of the photovoltaic tax - refund policy brings the expectation of a shipping rush on the European route in the first quarter. Enterprises with pre - holiday spot shipping contracts can close their long hedging positions in the futures market, and the positive arbitrage between EC2604 and EC2608 contracts can be held [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Current Affairs News - US President Trump is considering various options to interfere in Iran, including sending a carrier strike group to the Middle East, launching cyberattacks and information warfare. He will meet with senior advisors on the 13th to discuss Iran - related issues [2]. - The Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning responded to Trump's remarks about Venezuela's oil, stating that Latin American countries are sovereign and independent and can choose their cooperation partners independently. China will continue to deepen practical cooperation with Latin American countries [2]. - The US Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, focusing on the $2.5 billion over - budget for the headquarters renovation project and whether he lied to Congress about the project details. Powell responded that the investigation is an excuse for the Fed's independent interest - rate setting [3]. - Four Chinese government departments jointly issued work methods for the layout planning and investment guidance of government - investment funds, marking a shift from extensive management to refined management, which is of great significance for improving the efficiency of fiscal funds, guiding social capital, and serving national strategies [3]. 3.2. Stock Index Futures - On Monday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.09%, and the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 36,013 billion yuan, expanding compared with the previous trading day. The CSI 300 rose 0.65%, the SSE 50 rose 0.30%, the CSI 500 rose 2.39%, and the CSI 1000 rose 2.80%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, the media, computer, and military sectors led the rise, while only the petroleum & petrochemical, coal, and real - estate sectors closed down [4]. - The index futures contracts also showed different degrees of increase. For example, IF2601 rose 0.67% (basis - 0.52 points), IH2601 rose 0.34% (basis - 1.94 points), IC2601 rose 2.56% (basis 24.67 points), and IM2601 rose 3.23% (basis 38.19 points) [4]. 3.3. Treasury Bond Futures - On Monday, the central bank conducted 86.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 50 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 36.1 billion yuan. The overnight repurchase rate was 1.33%, indicating a loose money market [8]. - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the bond market sentiment improved, and the bearish positions in treasury bond futures left the market, driving the price of TL2603 back above the 5 - day moving average. In recent three trading days, the trend of treasury bonds has gradually become independent of the stock market [8]. 3.4. Precious Metals - In the Asian market today, the precious metals sector strengthened, with the domestic silver, gold, platinum, and palladium rising 14.42%, 2.57%, 4.65%, and 3.59% respectively, and the first two hitting new historical highs [10]. - The criminal investigation of the Fed Chairman may increase the internal divergence of the Fed in subsequent monetary policy decisions, which is bullish for precious metals in the medium term. After a short - term fermentation, the market is expected to return to the fundamentals [12][13]. 3.5. Container Shipping Index - On Monday, the container shipping index's main contract EC2604 rose significantly due to the shipping companies' price increase for February online booking rates and the convergence of inter - month spreads. The adjustment of the photovoltaic tax - refund policy brings the expectation of a shipping rush on the European route in the first quarter [15]. - The Shanghai Shipping Exchange announced that the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index for basic ports in Europe in week 2 was 1956.39 points, a week - on - week increase of 8.9%, slightly exceeding expectations, which will support the 02 contract [15]. 3.6. Key Data in the Next 24 Hours - Tonight at 17:30, the Eurozone's January Sentix Investor Confidence Index will be released, with a previous value of - 6.2 and a forecast of - 4.9 [17]. - Tomorrow at 07:00, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will give a speech; at 21:30, the US December CPI annual rate unadjusted and core CPI annual rate unadjusted will be released, with forecasts of 2.7% and 2.7% respectively; at 23:00, the US October seasonally - adjusted annualized total of new home sales will be released, with a forecast of 70.5 million [18].

对于后市展望，世界黄金协会在最新发布的报告中预计，在2025年表现亮眼的基础上，2026年黄金价格 可能还有15%至30%的上涨空间。星展银行（中国）高级投资策略师邓志坚表示，黄金价格中长期上涨 趋势明确，投资者应秉持中长期配置理念，重点关注央行增持动态、美元汇率走势及全球风险事件等核 心变量。 在国内市场，国际金价上涨迅速传导至消费端。1月12日，周生生、老庙黄金等品牌的足金饰品零售价 已上调至每克1429元附近，单日涨幅近20元。部分品牌的一口价产品也传出即将调价的消息。 随着金价持续高位运行，金融机构对相关业务的风险管理也趋于审慎。工商银行近期发布公告，自1月 12日起，个人客户办理积存金业务的开户、主动积存或新增定投计划，需取得C3-平衡型及以上的风险 评估结果，较此前要求的C1-保守型有所提升。此举旨在市场波动加剧的背景下，进一步强化投资者适 当性管理。 2026年1月12日亚洲早盘时段，国际贵金属市场迎来历史性突破。现货黄金价格盘中首次站上每盎司 4600美元关口，刷新历史最高纪录。同一时段，现货白银价格同步大幅上扬，盘中涨幅一度超过5%， 同样创下历史新高。 市场分析认为，多重因素共同促成了本轮 ...

Core Viewpoint - The primary investment opportunity identified is in resource commodities, particularly precious metals, which have shown strong performance in terms of returns and Sharpe ratios since November of last year [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Precious metals like silver, copper, and gold have led global asset performance, with a significant acceleration in their market activity observed in the past few weeks [1]. - The market is currently pricing in a medium to long-term supply-demand imbalance and expectations of a weaker dollar, with short-term catalysts being the anticipated easing of monetary and fiscal policies [1][3]. - The Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) program introduced in December is believed to have a more substantial impact on liquidity than initially recognized, contributing to a new bullish trend in commodities [1]. Group 2: Comparative Asset Analysis - Other major asset classes face specific concerns: U.S. equities are at risk of over-investment due to AI capital expenditures diverging from returns on invested capital; European equities are hindered by economic weakness and slow fiscal policy implementation; Japanese equities struggle with conflicting monetary and fiscal policies; emerging markets are affected by tariff uncertainties and a slowing weak dollar narrative [2]. - In the bond market, increased government debt issuance due to fiscal expansion is expected to suppress bond prices, while oil prices lack upward momentum due to an oversupply situation [2]. Group 3: Short-term and Mid-term Outlook - In the short term, liquidity improvements and expectations of monetary easing are driving commodity price increases, with an estimated $600 billion liquidity boost expected from RMP and TGA releases [3]. - The market anticipates potential interest rate cuts and even a return to quantitative easing, although this is contingent on economic data trends [3]. - Mid-term demand for resources is expected to grow significantly, particularly in sectors like renewable energy and electric vehicles, with copper demand projected to increase by over 20% by 2030 compared to 2024 levels [4]. Group 4: Long-term Trends - A prolonged weak dollar environment is anticipated, which will support commodity prices as the U.S. economic growth potential faces constraints [5]. - Geopolitical tensions are expected to exacerbate resource competition, leading to supply-side disruptions as countries increase their strategic reserves of various metals [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global liquidity environment will maintain a loose tone, with marginal adjustments in the pace and amplitude. China's macro - policies will remain positive, with fiscal support for "two major" construction and "new - quality productivity" and moderately loose monetary policies [17]. - The industrial capacity cycle has bottomed out, and there are signs of a turning point. In 2026, the capacity utilization rate is expected to stabilize in the first half and rise marginally in the second half [23]. - The inventory cycle is approaching its end, with domestic and overseas "de - stocking" showing signs of bottoming out [29]. - In 2026, the commodity market is expected to stabilize at the bottom and gradually shift to a "slow - bull" market. The Minsky Clock is likely to transition from "weak recovery" to "early re - inflation," benefiting stocks and commodities [30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Outlook - The global liquidity environment in 2026 will maintain a loose tone, and China's macro - policies will continue to be positive, with fiscal support for key areas and moderately loose monetary policies [17]. 3.2 Capacity Cycle - The industrial capacity utilization rate bottomed out in Q2 2025, and the PPI has been narrowing its year - on - year decline since June 2025. In 2026, it may form the initial stage of a positive cycle [23]. 3.3 Inventory Cycle - The year - on - year growth rate of finished - product inventory has shown signs of bottoming out, indicating the end of the current inventory cycle. The US wholesalers' inventory has been decreasing since Q2, and the inventory - to - sales ratio has become less sensitive [29]. 3.4 Commodity Market Outlook - In 2026, the commodity market will operate in a pattern of "liquidity support, cycle resonance and stabilization, and structural differentiation." It may show wide - range fluctuations in the first half and a mild recovery in the second half if policies are effective [30]. 3.5 Sector and Variety Allocation Outlook 3.5.1 Precious Metals - Precious metals are expected to continue their bull market but with increased volatility. The gold - silver ratio may decline periodically [35]. 3.5.2 From AI to New and Old Energy Transition - AI's computing power demand drives the entire new - energy industry chain, causing high resonance between the stock market and commodities. New - energy materials such as lithium carbonate and polysilicon may enter a new demand cycle, and there are investment opportunities in going long on copper and short on oil [42][57]. 3.5.3 Real Estate and Related Sectors - The real - estate industry is still in a downward cycle, putting pressure on the prices of black and building - material sectors. The divergence between copper and rebar reflects the economic transformation [62]. 3.5.4 Black and Energy - Chemical Sectors - In the black sector, shorting iron ore may be cost - effective. In the energy - chemical sector, most chemicals except crude oil face supply pressure and are suitable for short - allocation [68]. 3.5.5 Agricultural Products - Livestock Sector - If the "anti - involution" policy promotes the reduction of livestock production capacity in the first half, pork and eggs may be worth long - allocation in the second half, while the fundamentals of beans may weaken [74]. 3.6 Allocation Strategy - Industrial product hedging can focus on the theme of "AI and computing power driving the acceleration of new - and old - energy transformation." Agricultural products will continue to show differentiation, with grains and oils relatively resistant to decline and livestock products potentially having a low - then - high trend [80][81]. - New - energy varieties (e.g., lithium carbonate) have demand support and profit - repair potential. Non - ferrous metals (e.g., copper) have valuation - increasing potential. Energy - chemical products are under pressure, and black products are affected by real - estate demand [82].

金银同步刷新历史纪录 贵金属市场再迎历史性时刻。1月12日，伦敦金现、伦敦银现同步强势攀升，截至17:00，最高分别突破 4600美元/盎司、84美元/盎司，双双刷新历史新高。受火热行情传导，A股贵金属关联个股亦表现亮眼，截 至收盘，明牌珠宝涨超10%，盛达资源涨超8%，中国白银集团、湖南白银、晓程科技均涨超5%，周大 福、中国黄金国际、周生生、老铺黄金等多股纷纷跟涨。 消息面上，据央视新闻，美国哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官办公室已对美联储主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查。特朗 普自2025年1月第二次就任美国总统后，始终敦促美联储降息以提振经济、降低政府借贷成本，因不满降 息进度，特朗普多次要求鲍威尔辞职。 官方储备持续增持也成为行情的重要支撑。1月7日人民银行更新的储备资产数据显示，截至2025年12月 末，我国黄金储备达7415万盎司，较11月末环比增加3万盎司，这是2024年11月央行恢复增持以来的连续第 14个月增持。 对于贵金属价格再次冲高的动因，中国（香港）金融衍生品投资研究院院长王红英指出，一方面地缘政治 及冲突风险上升，避险资金持续涌入贵金属市场；另一方面央行、全球宏观基金等集中加仓，导致投资结 构失衡。此 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The report highlights significant fluctuations in precious metals, driven by changes in margin requirements and adjustments in commodity index weights, leading to a rebound in precious metals prices following disappointing non-farm payroll data [3] - The report emphasizes a bullish outlook on precious metals due to ongoing geopolitical events and expectations of monetary easing, suggesting investors should hold positions despite market volatility [3] - For copper, the report recommends buying on dips, citing expected supply-demand tightness in 2026 due to production cuts from major producers and increased fiscal spending expectations from the U.S. government [4] - The aluminum market is also recommended for buying on dips, with strong macro policy expectations and geopolitical risks providing support despite current demand pressures [4] - Tin prices have surged past 350,000 yuan/ton, driven by significant inventory reductions and ongoing demand from AI capital expenditures, with a recommendation to buy on dips [5] - Lithium prices continue to rise, with a recommendation to buy on dips, supported by supply constraints and strong demand expectations [5] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw an 8.3% increase this week, ranking fifth among sectors [13] Prices - LME copper decreased by 0.93%, aluminum increased by 1.91%, zinc decreased by 1.84%, lead increased by 0.84%, and tin increased by 7.38% [18] - Precious metals saw COMEX gold rise by 1.32%, silver by 4.29%, and NYMEX palladium by 5.73%, while platinum fell by 18.09% [18] - Lithium carbonate prices surged by 17.15% [18] Inventory - Global visible copper inventories increased by 31,985 tons, while aluminum saw a decrease of 809 tons, zinc decreased by 900 tons, lead decreased by 11,300 tons, and tin decreased by 916 tons [24][26]

1月12日，A股市场延续强势表现，主要股指全线收涨，沪深两市成交额创下历史新高。截至收盘，沪指报4165.29点，上涨1.09%，录得连续第17个交易日 上涨；深证成指报14366.91点，上涨1.75%；创业板指报3388.34点，上涨1.82%。 在商品市场方面，碳酸锂期货价格近期持续走高。1月8日，广州期货交易所数据显示，碳酸锂期货成交价突破15万元/吨关口，较2025年1月同期涨幅超过 80%。自2025年6月触底以来，其累计涨幅已超过166%。市场分析认为，这一轮价格上涨与政策引导规范行业竞争、下游储能需求放量以及上游部分锂矿供 应收紧等多重因素相关。 同日，国际贵金属价格也大幅上涨。亚洲交易时段，纽约商品交易所黄金期价和伦敦现货黄金价格盘中双双突破每盎司4600美元关口，国际银价同样创下历 史新高。分析指出，市场对美联储降息的预期以及地缘政治紧张局势是推动本轮贵金属价格走高的核心因素。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 市场全天成交额约为3.64万亿元，打破了此前于2024年10月8日创下的3.49万亿元纪录。盘面上，AI应用与商 ...

Core Viewpoint - The prices of gold and silver continue to soar, reaching new historical highs, driven by multiple factors including geopolitical risks, U.S. fiscal concerns, and ongoing monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [1][4][5]. Group 1: Price Movements - On January 12, the main silver contract in Shanghai opened significantly higher at 20,881 yuan per kilogram, with a peak of 20,950 yuan, marking a 14.07% increase [1]. - COMEX silver rose over 6%, reaching 84.52 USD per ounce, while London spot silver hit a high of 84.589 USD per ounce, with a gain exceeding 5% [1]. - COMEX gold reached 4,612.7 USD per ounce, and the Shanghai gold main contract saw a 3.07% increase, both setting new historical highs [1]. Group 2: Investment Trends - Following the surge in gold prices, there has been a notable increase in investment enthusiasm for related assets, with over 5.5 billion shares of gold ETFs net subscribed in 2025, and an additional 400 million shares in the first seven trading days of 2026 [1][8]. - The largest gold ETF in China, Huaan Gold ETF, grew from under 30 billion yuan at the beginning of 2025 to over 90 billion yuan [7]. - The People's Bank of China reported that its gold reserves reached 74.15 million ounces by December 2025, marking 14 consecutive months of increases [8]. Group 3: Factors Driving Gold and Silver Prices - Geopolitical risks are high, enhancing market risk aversion and supporting precious metal prices [4]. - U.S. fiscal risks are rising due to the economic and fiscal policies of the Trump administration, leading to increased skepticism about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal health [4][5]. - Global central banks continue to show strong interest in gold as a strategic reserve asset amid economic uncertainties [4]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Analysts predict that the long-term upward trend for gold will persist, driven by a shift towards "de-dollarization" and "debt reduction" policies in major economies [5][10]. - UBS Wealth Management has raised its price targets for gold, forecasting a rise to 5,000 USD per ounce by mid-2026, with potential peaks of 5,400 USD if political or financial risks escalate [8]. - Investment strategies are shifting from short-term economic indicators to long-term structural risk hedging, indicating a fundamental change in commodity investment logic [10].

截至上周五（1月9日），伦敦现货黄金报收4509.02美元/盎司，自1月2日以来累计上涨176.51美元/盎 司，涨幅4.07%。上周伦敦现货黄金价格震荡走强，金价于周五重回4500关口，最高达4517.23美元/盎 司。 回顾上周以来海外主要市场动态：美国12月制造业PMI超预期回落，强化市场对美联储降息预期；美国 非农就业数据再度下修，ADP数据疲软，但失业率也有所回落，尚为对降息预期有一致性的影响；地缘 冲突持续，美委冲突、白宫对格陵兰岛的表态强硬、伊朗爆发大规模抗议等，激发市场避险情绪；芝商 所第三次上调履约保证金，彭博商品指数开始调参、贵金属权重下降，对黄金带来一定短期利空。总体 来看，在地缘冲突与避险情绪的提振下，金价震荡走强，重回4500关口，或可考虑逢低分批布局黄金基 金ETF（518800）。关注本周美国12月CPI、11月PPI等。 周点评：中长期看黄金具备支撑 在地缘冲突与避险情绪的提振下，上周伦敦现货黄金价格震荡走强，重回4500美元/盎司关口。展望后 市，美委、伊朗等地缘扰动、贵金属板块的火热交易情绪或构成利好，交易所上调保证金、商品指数调 整等因素或构成短期利空加大波动、但不改长期 ...