Core Viewpoint - The company, Shanxi Lanhua Science and Technology Innovation Co., Ltd. (Lanhua Ketech), reported a decline in financial performance for 2024, attributing this to prolonged construction periods and significant investments in two mines, as well as fluctuations in coal prices [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved an operating revenue of 11.697 billion yuan, a total profit of 827 million yuan, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 718 million yuan, all showing a decline compared to previous periods [1]. - The decline in performance is linked to weaker profitability in the coal and coal chemical sectors due to the aforementioned factors [1]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has launched a series of strategic measures covering the entire business chain from coal resource expansion to downstream coal chemical industry upgrades [2]. - Key projects include the launch of the Lanhua Qinyu 900,000 tons/year integrated mine in January 2024 and the Baisheng Coal Industry project expected to begin production by the end of September 2024 [2]. - The company also secured coal exploration rights in Shanxi Province for 6.949 billion yuan, enhancing its resource reserve capabilities [2]. Market Outlook - With the peak summer electricity demand approaching, coal demand is expected to recover, leading to a potential increase in coal prices [2]. - Positive changes in market demand and prices for the company's urea products are anticipated to support operational performance [2]. Future Plans - The company has outlined a 2025 valuation enhancement plan focusing on coal and coal chemical sectors, aiming to optimize market layout and business structure [2]. - The company plans to achieve a coal production target of 14.5 million tons, urea production of 803,400 tons, and caprolactam production of 110,000 tons by 2025 [3]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of no less than 30% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the 2025 fiscal year [3]. - Over its 26 years as a listed company, Lanhua Ketech has implemented cash dividends 23 times, totaling 7.165 billion yuan, with an average dividend payout ratio of 41.02% over the past three years [3].

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Zhang Chuanjiang as the new chairman of CNOOC marks a significant leadership change during a critical phase of the company's "14th Five-Year" strategic plan, focusing on capital expenditure and green energy initiatives [1][2]. Group 1: Leadership Change - CNOOC announced the appointment of Zhang Chuanjiang as chairman and party secretary, following the departure of former chairman Wang Dongjin [1]. - Zhang Chuanjiang has a background in coal-to-oil and coal chemical industries, with previous roles in major energy companies, including China Shenhua [1][2]. - Notably, Zhang is the only current leader among the "Big Three" oil companies who has not spent a long tenure within the oil and gas sector [2]. Group 2: Strategic Focus - CNOOC's annual plan for 2025 includes a capital expenditure forecast of 125 to 135 billion yuan and an oil and gas production target of 760 to 780 million barrels of oil equivalent [2]. - The company aims to implement a green low-carbon strategy, emphasizing offshore renewable energy and the integration of offshore wind power with oil and gas production [2].

Group 1 - Zhang Chuanjiang has been appointed as the new chairman and party secretary of China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), previously serving as the general manager and party deputy secretary of China Datang Corporation [1][2] - The position of CNOOC chairman had been vacant for over a month prior to Zhang's appointment, following the removal of former chairman Wang Dongjin from his roles [1] - Zhang Chuanjiang has extensive experience in coal-to-oil and coal chemical industries, having held various technical and managerial positions in these fields [1] Group 2 - Zhang is the only current leader among the "Big Three" oil companies who has not spent a long tenure within the oil and gas sector, contrasting with his peers who have over 30 years of experience [2] - CNOOC is at a critical stage of implementing its 14th Five-Year Plan, with projected capital expenditures of 125 to 135 billion yuan and oil and gas production targets of 760 to 780 million barrels of oil equivalent by 2025 [2] - The company aims to enhance its green low-carbon strategy, focusing on offshore renewable energy and integrating offshore wind power with oil and gas production, while advancing CCS/CCUS industrialization [2]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Urea: Stronger oscillation [1] - Soda Ash: Stronger [1] - Glass: Stronger oscillation [1] Group 2: Core Views - Urea market has no obvious positive drivers, but subsequent demand is expected to provide some support. The urea futures price is expected to rebound after breaking through the low point of the past five months [1]. - Soda ash supply recovers, demand is weakly stable, and the fundamental driving force is limited. The soda ash futures price is expected to maintain a stronger state in the short - term, but the market will continue to face pressure in the long - term [1]. - The glass supply and demand situation has not substantially improved, but news of production restrictions, rising coal prices, and improved macro - trade environment will boost the futures market. The glass futures price is expected to be mainly in a stronger oscillation [1]. Group 3: Market Information Summary Urea - On June 5, the urea futures warehouse receipts were 6357, a decrease of 52 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 0 [3]. - On June 5, the daily output of the urea industry was 200,700 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 25,700 tons from the same period last year. The current start - up rate was 87.27%, a 6.01 - percentage - point increase from 81.26% in the same period last year [3]. - As of June 4, 2025, the domestic urea enterprise inventory was 1.0354 million tons, an increase of 54,800 tons or 5.59% from last week [3]. Soda Ash and Glass - On June 5, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 3482, an increase of 142 from the previous trading day, with an effective forecast of 2539; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. - As of the week of June 5, the capacity utilization rate of the soda ash industry was 80.76%, a 2.19 - percentage - point increase week - on - week; the soda ash output was 704,100 tons, an increase of 19,100 tons or 2.78% week - on - week [5]. - As of June 5, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.627 million tons, an increase of 2,700 tons or 0.17% from last Thursday [5]. - As of June 5, the average price of the float glass market was 1,207 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton day - on - day; the daily output of the industry was 156,800 tons, unchanged day - on - day [5]. - As of June 5, the total inventory of domestic float glass enterprises was 69.754 million weight boxes, an increase of 2.092 million weight boxes or 3.09% month - on - month, and an increase of 20.15% year - on - year. The inventory days were 31.3 days, an increase of 0.9 days from last week [6] Group 4: Research Team - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen [26] - Zhang Xiaojin focuses on sugar industry research [26] - Zhang Linglu is responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass [26] - Sun Chengzhen is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [26]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for high-quality development in the western regions of China, particularly in Xinjiang, which is focusing on building ten industrial clusters to support economic growth [1] - Xinjiang is experiencing a significant shortage of skilled talent in modern coal chemical projects, with investment amounts reaching thousands of billions, highlighting the mismatch between project construction pace and talent availability [1][2] - The article discusses the necessity of reforming the workforce training system to cultivate high-quality skilled talent, which is essential for supporting the modern industrial system in Xinjiang [3] Group 2 - There is a large gap in high-quality skilled talent in western regions, and many vocational education graduates are not finding jobs that match their fields of study, indicating a lack of foresight in vocational training programs [2] - Leading enterprises are encouraged to play a pivotal role in training skilled workers, with examples such as Yili New Tian Coal Chemical Co., which operates the world's largest coal-to-gas project, serving as a training base for new projects [2] - The establishment of a talent recruitment and training system is crucial, focusing on local resource development and creating a cycle of local selection, training, growth, and employment [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical and transportation sectors [5] Core Insights - The demand for biodiesel is expected to grow significantly due to its environmental benefits and the expansion of its application in various sectors, including aviation and power generation [1][2] - The introduction of mandatory Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) blending requirements in the EU starting in 2025 is anticipated to drive up prices for related products in the supply chain [2] - The successful establishment of export channels for domestic bio-jet fuel marks a significant milestone for China's biofuel industry, allowing for international market access [3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Biodiesel is recognized for its renewable nature and broad raw material sources, contributing to sustainable economic development and energy transition [1] - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects that by 2050, 65% of emissions reductions in aviation will come from the use of biofuels [1] 2. Policy Impact - The EU's SAF mandate requires a minimum of 2% SAF in aviation fuel by 2025, increasing to 6% by 2030 and 70% by 2050, which is expected to accelerate the growth of the SAF market [2] - China's "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the development of non-grain biomass liquid fuels, including biodiesel and bio-jet fuel, aligning with the country's carbon neutrality goals [1] 3. Market Dynamics - The export volume of domestic kitchen waste oil is projected to grow from 730,000 tons in 2019 to 2.78 million tons by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 23% [2] - As of June 4, 2025, the average market prices for domestic waste oil and biodiesel are reported at 6,200 RMB/ton and 7,925 RMB/ton, respectively, showing increases of 36% and 17% from their October 2024 lows [2] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued, high-dividend, and well-performing companies in the "three barrels of oil" and oil service sectors, including China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC [4] - It also highlights opportunities in domestic material companies benefiting from the trend of local substitution, as well as in the pesticide and fertilizer sectors [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical and transportation sectors [5] Core Insights - The demand for biodiesel is expected to grow significantly due to its environmental benefits and the expansion of its application in various sectors, including aviation and power generation [1][2] - The introduction of mandatory Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) blending requirements in the EU starting in 2025 is anticipated to drive up prices for related products in the supply chain [2] - The recent approval of export channels for domestic bio-jet fuel marks a significant development for China's biofuel industry, allowing for international trade and enhancing competitive advantages for leading companies [3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report highlights the strategic importance of biodiesel in achieving sustainable economic development and reducing environmental pollution, with a focus on its growing applications in transportation and energy sectors [1] 2. Policy Impact - The EU's SAF blending mandate will require at least 2% SAF in aviation fuel by 2025, increasing to 6% by 2030 and 70% by 2050, which is expected to significantly boost demand for biofuels [2] 3. Market Developments - The export approval for bio-jet fuel from Jiangsu province represents a breakthrough for the domestic biofuel industry, allowing for a production capacity of 372,400 tons in 2025 [3] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued, high-dividend companies in the oil and gas sector, as well as those benefiting from domestic substitution trends in materials and chemicals [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical and transportation sectors [5] Core Viewpoints - The demand for biodiesel is expected to grow significantly due to its environmental benefits and the expansion of its application in various sectors, including aviation and power generation [1][2] - The introduction of mandatory Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) blending requirements in the EU is anticipated to drive up prices for related products in the supply chain [2] - The establishment of export channels for domestic bio-jet fuel marks a significant development for China's biofuel industry, allowing for international market access [3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Biodiesel is recognized for its renewable nature and broad raw material sources, contributing to sustainable economic development and energy transition [1] - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects that by 2050, 65% of emissions reductions in aviation will come from the use of biofuels [1] 2. Policy Impact - The EU mandates a minimum of 2% SAF in aviation fuel starting January 2025, increasing to 6% by 2030 and 70% by 2050, which is expected to significantly boost the SAF market [2] - China's "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the development of non-grain biomass liquid fuels, including biodiesel and bio-jet fuel, aligning with the country's carbon neutrality goals [1] 3. Market Dynamics - The export volume of domestic kitchen waste oil is projected to grow from 730,000 tons in 2019 to 2.78 million tons by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 23% [2] - As of June 4, 2025, the average market prices for domestic waste oil and biodiesel are reported at 6,200 RMB/ton and 7,925 RMB/ton, respectively, showing increases of 36% and 17% from their October 2024 lows [2] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued, high-dividend, and well-performing companies in the "three barrels of oil" and oil service sectors, as well as companies benefiting from domestic substitution trends in materials [4]

行业 甲醇日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 5 日 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2][5]. Core Views - The company reported a 2024 annual revenue of 34.226 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.55%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.903 billion yuan, up 9.14% year-on-year [5]. - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a revenue decline of 2.59% year-on-year, with a net profit drop of 33.65% year-on-year, attributed to pressure on product prices [5]. - The company is expected to benefit from the gradual release of its production capacity and a share buyback plan, which reflects management's confidence in long-term growth [5]. Company Overview - The latest closing price is 20.86 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 44.3 billion yuan [4]. - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 29.6% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.33 [4]. Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 342 billion yuan, with projected revenues of 348 billion yuan in 2025, 385 billion yuan in 2026, and 408 billion yuan in 2027 [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 38.87 billion yuan in 2025, 44.62 billion yuan in 2026, and 50.45 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.83, 2.10, and 2.38 yuan [6][7]. - The company’s EBITDA is expected to be 77.99 billion yuan in 2025, increasing to 93.41 billion yuan by 2027 [6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as a low-cost leader in the coal chemical industry, with ongoing projects aimed at enhancing production capabilities [5]. - The management's decision to initiate a share buyback of 200 to 300 million yuan indicates strong confidence in the company's future [5].