印尼矿业部长：政府计划将采矿配额期限由三年恢复为一年有效期。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current economic operation is in a neutral range, and the marginal change in the economy compared to 2024 may lie in consumption [2][104]. - The negative economic cycle of "sharp decline in housing prices, sharp decline in the stock market - wealth shrinkage - consumption downgrade" in the past two years has come to an end [2][104]. - Pay attention to the progress of future China - US trade negotiations and whether the fentanyl tariff can be reduced to 0, as well as possible policy adjustments for weak business reception activities that may affect consumption [2][104]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Macro News - On June 24, six departments including the People's Bank of China jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", which aims to activate markets such as automobiles, culture and tourism, and elderly care through various measures [8]. - On June 26, the Financial Regulatory Administration and others issued the "Implementation Plan for the High - Quality Development of Inclusive Finance in the Banking and Insurance Industries", aiming to build a high - quality inclusive finance system and solve the financing problems of small and micro enterprises, "agriculture, rural areas, and farmers", and new citizens [8]. - The second - quarter meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China in 2025 was held on June 23. It was more cautious about the world economic growth momentum and more optimistic about the domestic economy. The probability of a recent reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut is low [8]. - From January to May 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 2.72 trillion yuan, a year - on - year slight decrease of 1.1%. However, the profit structure had highlights, with the profit of the equipment manufacturing industry increasing by 7.2% [9][10]. - Israel and Iran announced a formal cease - fire, leading to a significant decline in domestic and international oil prices recently [13]. 3.2 Medium - term High - Frequency: Consumption and Production Show Differentiated Recovery Characteristics 3.2.1 Consumption: Policy Stimulus Shows Remarkable Results - As of the week of June 22, the average daily retail volume of passenger car manufacturers increased by 30.0% year - on - year, and the average daily wholesale volume increased by 1.4% year - on - year [16][19]. - As of the week of June 13, the retail volume and retail amount of three major household appliances increased by 24.6% and 13.5% year - on - year respectively [16][25]. 3.2.2 Transportation: Supply Chain Resilience is Prominent - As of the week of June 22, the container throughput of ports increased by 5.3% year - on - year, railway freight volume increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and highway truck traffic volume increased by 0.7% year - on - year [17][27]. - As of the week of June 22, the number of civil aviation flights guaranteed increased by 1.7% year - on - year, and as of June 27, the average passenger volume of subways in first - tier cities in the past 7 days increased by 2.3% year - on - year [17][36]. 3.2.3 Capacity Utilization: Infrastructure Chain is Stronger than Chemical Chain - As of June 25, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of major steel enterprises nationwide was 77.6%, a year - on - year increase of 2.2 pct, and as of June 26, the average asphalt capacity utilization rate was 25.0%, a year - on - year increase of 1.0 pct [17][49]. - As of June 26, the soda ash capacity utilization rate was 85.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6 pct, and the PVC capacity utilization rate was 74.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5 pct [17][53]. 3.2.4 Real Estate: Continuously Under Pressure - As of June 27, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days increased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the number of transactions decreased by 2.0% year - on - year [18][62]. - As of June 22, the listing price index of second - hand houses in national cities decreased by 7.5% year - on - year [18][67]. 3.2.5 Price: Commodity Prices are Under Pressure - As of June 27, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 16.8% year - on - year, and the average wholesale price of vegetables decreased by 0.8% year - on - year [18][75]. - As of June 27, the average spot price of WTI crude oil was 67.4 US dollars per barrel, a year - on - year decrease of 17.0% [18][81]. 3.3 Bond Market and Foreign Exchange Market: Structural Easing Coexists with Cross - Month Pressure - On June 27, the yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.35%, 1.51%, 1.65%, and 1.85% respectively, with changes of - 1.0BP, + 0.3BP, + 0.6BP, and + 1.3BP compared to June 20 [2][89]. - On June 27, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan were 7.16/7.17, down 68/147 pips compared to June 20 [94]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior: The Duration of Credit Bond Funds has Decreased - As of June 29, the net - breaking rate of public wealth management products of wealth management companies was about 0.81%, a decrease of 1.16 pct compared to the beginning of the year, and the current net - breaking rate's percentile within the year was below 5% [96]. - As of June 27, the median and average duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for interest - rate bonds were about 4.7 years and 5.1 years respectively, an increase of about 0.12 years compared to the previous week; the median and average duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for credit bonds were about 1.9 years and 2.1 years respectively, a decrease of about 0.19 years compared to the previous week [97][98]. 3.5 Investment Suggestions - Be bullish on long - duration urban investment bonds and bank capital bonds with a yield of over 2%. Currently, the yield of 10Y treasury bonds is close to a historical low, and the cost - effectiveness of investing in interest - rate bonds is low. Among interest - rate bonds, local bonds have a higher cost - effectiveness than treasury bonds [104]. - Continue to pay attention to Hong Kong - listed banks. The low interest rates in the domestic market may drive up the valuations of high - dividend stocks [104].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Industrias Penoles has resumed operations at the Tizapa mine after several months of strikes [1] Group 2 - The resumption of operations indicates a potential recovery in production and revenue for the company following the disruptions caused by the strikes [1]

金十数据6月30日讯，天眼查App显示，近日，赤峰黄金发生工商变更，注册资本由约16.6亿人民币增至 约19亿人民币，增幅约14%，同时，部分主要人员也发生变更。该公司成立于1998年6月，法定代表人 为王建华，经营范围为有色金属采选、购销，对采矿业及其他国家允许投资的行业的投资与管理，货物 或技术进出口，由李金阳、香港中央结算有限公司、香港中央结算有限公司、王建华等共同持股。 赤峰黄金增资至19亿 增幅约14% ...

Economic Overview - Shenzhen's economy showed overall stability and progress in the first five months of the year, with industrial production maintaining a steady growth of 3.5% year-on-year in the scale of above-designated size industries [1] - High-tech product output continued to grow rapidly, with significant increases in civilian drones (68.0%), 3D printing equipment (40.7%), and industrial robots (38.8%) [1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Shenzhen faced pressure, declining by 9.2% year-on-year, with real estate development investment down by 11.9% [2] - Industrial technology transformation investment surged by 48.2%, while information transmission, software, and IT service industries grew by 48.7% [2] - Social retail sales showed a notable recovery, with total retail sales reaching 411.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [2] Consumer Behavior - The consumption of basic living goods performed well, with retail sales of daily necessities and grain and oil products increasing by 10.6% and 10.4%, respectively [2] - The "old for new" policy in consumer goods continued to show effectiveness, with significant growth in retail sales of home appliances (74.9%) and cultural office supplies (34.4%) [2] - Online retail also saw robust growth, with sales through the internet increasing by 25.6% [2] Foreign Trade - Shenzhen's total import and export value decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with exports falling by 8.6% and imports rising by 10.1% [3] - High-tech product exports grew by 6.2%, indicating a positive trend in this sector despite overall declines [3] Financial Sector - Financial institutions in Shenzhen reported a steady increase in deposits and loans, with total deposits reaching 14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [3] - The loan balance also increased by 2.9%, reflecting a stable financial environment [3] Price Trends - Consumer prices in Shenzhen experienced mild inflation, with an overall increase of 0.1% year-on-year [3] - Specific categories showed varied price changes, with food and beverage prices up by 0.7% and clothing prices up by 1.4% [3]

期货研究报告|宏观数据 2025-06-30 工企盈利承压 ——中国盈利系列十一 研究院 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 宏观事件 6 月 27 日，国家统计局数据显示，1—5 月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 27204.3 亿元，同比下降 1.1%。 核心观点 ■ 营收压力仍存 总量：需求与价格双弱，库存压力仍存。2025年 1-5月，全国规模以上工业企业实现利 润总额 2.72 万亿元，同比下降 1.1%（较 1-4 月的+1.4%由正转负），主要受三重压力影 响：一是需求与价格双弱，PPI累计同比下跌 3.3%挤压毛利空间，叠加每百元营收成本 同比增加 0.24 元，进一步压缩利润；二是短期基数效应，投资收益等非经营性收益的 高基数下拉利润增速1.7个百分点；三是单月加速下滑，工业企业同比增速从4月的3% 大幅转负至 5 月的-9.1%，反映内需不足与"抢出口"效应消退的冲击。积极信号方面， 营业收入同比增长 2.7%，毛利润增长 1.1%，为后续盈利修复提供基础；装备制造 ...

Economic Overview - The economic performance of Jiangmen City from January to May 2025 is characterized as "generally stable," despite a continuous decline in fixed asset investment [2] - Key economic indicators such as industrial added value and retail sales continue to show positive growth [2] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value of Jiangmen's scale above designated size increased by 2.6% year-on-year, with a slight deceleration of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [3] - The manufacturing sector saw a growth of 3.6%, while the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector declined by 3.4%, and the mining sector experienced a significant drop of 36.9% [3] - Among 21 major industrial products, 16 categories maintained positive growth, with notable increases in stainless steel daily products (62,400 tons), furniture (3.8795 million pieces), and motorcycles (2.0451 million units), all exceeding 20% growth [3] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in Jiangmen decreased by 26.5% year-on-year, with the decline rate widening by 1.9 percentage points compared to the previous month [4] - State-owned investment fell by 26.9%, while private investment decreased by 23.0% [4] - Investment in the real estate sector also saw a decline of 26.1%, with a 14.9% drop in sales area and a 10.2% decrease in sales revenue [4] Foreign Trade - Jiangmen's foreign trade value increased by 6.7% year-on-year, reaching 80.08 billion yuan, which is higher than the national and provincial average growth rates [5] - Exports amounted to 68.65 billion yuan, growing by 9.9%, ranking fourth in the province, while imports fell by 9.3% to 11.43 billion yuan [6] - Private enterprises showed a rapid growth in imports and exports, totaling 46.25 billion yuan, a 12.4% increase, accounting for 57.8% of the total [6] Export Performance - The top five export products included household appliances (9.92 billion yuan, 6.3% growth), motorcycles (7.15 billion yuan, 55.9% growth), and general machinery (4.59 billion yuan, 19% growth), collectively representing 42.1% of total exports [7] - Exports of ships and paper products also saw significant growth, with increases of 32.3% and 19.9%, respectively [7] Retail and Fiscal Revenue - The total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 52.369 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, accelerating by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [8] - Local general public budget revenue increased by 2.6% year-on-year, although the growth rate slowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [8]

Core Insights - The industrial revenue of Fujian Province increased by 5.8% year-on-year from January to May, indicating a positive growth trend in the industrial sector [1] Revenue Growth by Sector - Mining industry grew by 1.8% - Manufacturing industry saw a growth of 6.2% - Electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry increased by 0.9% [1] Manufacturing Sub-sectors Performance - Upstream raw material manufacturing grew by 2.9% - Midstream equipment manufacturing experienced a significant growth of 13.7% - Downstream consumer goods manufacturing increased by 3.3% [1] Profitability Metrics - Total profit increased by 9.8%, with a 0.9 percentage point improvement compared to January-April [1] - Out of 38 major industrial categories, 26 achieved growth, with notable profit increases in chemical raw materials, electrical machinery, and gas production and supply sectors, which saw profit growth rates improve by over 5 percentage points compared to January-April [1] - The operating profit margin was recorded at 6.40%, up by 0.24 percentage points [1] - The cost per 100 yuan of operating revenue was 87.17 yuan, a decrease of 0.11 yuan [1]

股指期货将偏强震荡 黄金、白银、原油期货将偏弱震荡 工业硅、多晶硅、碳酸锂期货将震荡偏强 螺纹钢、铁矿 石、焦煤、玻璃、纯碱、PTA、PVC、豆粕期货将偏强震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 2025 年 6 月 30 日 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2509 阻力位 3904 和 3931 点，支撑位 3872 和 3852 点；IH2509 阻力位 2703 和 2728 点，支撑位 2667 和 2653 点；IC2509 阻力位 5810 和 5838 点，支撑位 ...

Market Insights - The small-cap crowding index has decreased from 65% to 62.4%, indicating a significant drop in market congestion, approaching levels seen in April 2025 [1][10] - Previous market adjustments occurred when the trading volume decreased alongside rising small-cap crowding, while the current market shows stable inventory levels [1][10] - The current trading volume has remained relatively low, averaging around 1.2 trillion, without signs of overheating during the recovery phase [1][11] Domestic Industry Analysis - In May, industrial enterprise profits reported a year-on-year decline of 9.10%, with cumulative profits from January to May down to -1.10% from a previous 1.40% [3][20] - The inventory of finished goods for large industrial enterprises stood at 6.65 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.50% [3][20] - The People's Bank of China indicated a need for moderately loose monetary policy to support economic recovery amid challenges like insufficient domestic demand [3][31] International Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE index rose by 2.68% year-on-year in May, slightly above expectations, indicating inflationary pressures [4][11] Industry Allocation Recommendations - Investment strategies should focus on three main areas: breakthroughs in AI technology, valuation recovery in consumer stocks, and the rise of undervalued dividends [5][11] - The consumer sector is expected to recover due to low valuations, declining interest rates, and policy catalysts, despite a cautious macro narrative [5][11]