1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical premium has significantly declined, and the crude oil and fuel oil markets may re - enter the fundamental - driven stage if there are no new variables. The energy sector has fallen sharply due to the easing of the Middle East situation [1]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil market has support despite weak spot demand, as power - generation demand in the Middle East and Egypt is expected to increase in summer, and China's import and refinery demand may rise [1]. - The short - term supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is limited, and downstream demand is good, but there is a lack of continuous upward momentum as domestic refinery production is expected to recover [2]. - The strategy for both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is to be oscillating and slightly bullish, with attention on the development of the Iran - Israel conflict situation [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Price Movements**: The night - session of the main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 6.05% at 3,012 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 3.5% at 3,691 yuan/ton [1]. - **Geopolitical Impact**: After Iran and Israel declared a cease - fire, the crude oil premium caused by the geopolitical conflict has rapidly declined, and the energy sector has fallen significantly [1]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The monthly spread structure has weakened, indicating sufficient spot supply. However, with the approaching summer, power - generation demand in the Middle East and Egypt is increasing. Egypt may import more LNG and high - sulfur fuel oil, and Saudi Arabia's imports are rising. In June, China's high - sulfur fuel oil arrivals may increase, and the consumption tax deduction ratio may be adjusted, which could boost refinery demand [1]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Short - term supply pressure is limited, with low domestic production in May. Singapore's May bunker sales increased significantly, supporting the market. But domestic refinery production is expected to recover after the maintenance season, and the market lacks continuous upward drivers [2]. Strategy - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Oscillating and slightly bullish, pay attention to the development of the Iran - Israel conflict situation [3]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Oscillating and slightly bullish, pay attention to the development of the Iran - Israel conflict situation [3]. - **Cross - Variety**: No strategy provided [3]. - **Cross - Period**: No strategy provided [3]. - **Spot - Futures**: No strategy provided [3]. - **Options**: No strategy provided [3].

Group 1: Core Insights - The 2025 Manufacturing Digitalization Expo and WOD World Manufacturing Digitalization Conference was held in Shanghai, attracting over 200 leading companies and approximately 20,000 professional attendees from 10 countries and regions [1] - The conference focused on how the petrochemical industry can build a new pattern of transformation and upgrading under the wave of digital technologies like AI [1] Group 2: AI Technology in the Chemical Industry - AI technology is reshaping the entire chain of R&D, production, management, and services in the chemical industry, presenting both opportunities and challenges [2] - The industry is encouraged to develop platforms integrating AI with manufacturing, R&D, decision-making, and safety [2] - Successful AI applications in the chemical sector have been demonstrated, such as the "Industrial Intelligent Agent + General Intelligent Agent" dual system, which improved document processing speed by 30%-40% and meeting efficiency by 40%-50% [2] Group 3: Digital Empowerment for International Expansion - The formula for successful international expansion of chemical enterprises includes strategic foresight, operational resilience, and value upgrading, with digital technology playing a crucial role [3] - Discussions included optimizing supply chains through digital technologies and sharing successful case studies of multinational companies [3] - The shift from "tool application" to "ecosystem reconstruction" is emphasized, utilizing social media for brand building and consumer engagement [3] Group 4: Building a Smart Ecosystem in the Chemical Industry - Experts suggested establishing a comprehensive digital ecosystem for the chemical industry that spans from design delivery to waste management [4] - Digital delivery is seen as core to enhancing project execution efficiency and quality, with significant cost reductions achieved through digital twin technology and AR devices [4] - The integration of AI and digitalization is transforming traditional R&D models, promoting advancements in material science towards efficiency, precision, and intelligence [4] Group 5: Safety and Digital Transformation - The implementation of IoT and big data in safety management systems enables real-time risk alerts and precise control [5] - The importance of the industrial internet identification and resolution system in safety production is highlighted, with calls for industry collaboration to deepen the integration of digital transformation and safety [5] - There is a proposal to establish a "Chemical Digital Innovation Alliance" to share experiences and solutions across the industry chain [5]

Core Insights - The article highlights the transformation of traditional asphalt into smart materials, showcasing the advancements made by Karamay Petrochemical Company (克石化) in asphalt research and development [1][2] - The successful application of Karamay's high-quality asphalt products in significant infrastructure projects, such as the G218 Naba Highway, demonstrates the company's commitment to quality and innovation [1] Group 1: Product Development and Innovation - Karamay Petrochemical has developed various high-quality asphalt products, including micro-surfacing SBS/SBR modified emulsified asphalt, airport modified asphalt, and SBS/rubber powder composite modified asphalt [1] - The company emphasizes the importance of demonstrating tangible product advantages to clients rather than relying solely on marketing efforts [1] Group 2: Market Expansion and Customization - Karamay Petrochemical is advancing a "Belt and Road Customization" cooperation model, providing tailored asphalt products for different road conditions and offering comprehensive technical support from product selection to construction guidance [2] - The company's high-grade road asphalt has been used in nearly a hundred highways, with SBR modified asphalt successfully applied in the frozen layer sections of the Qinghai-Tibet Highway, and specialty hydraulic asphalt used in major water conservancy projects like the Three Gorges Dam [2]

华东标品基差 500 - 300 100 -10QV -300 -500 空宮标市 500 300 100 -100 -300 -500 2019 - 2022 - 2020 2019 -2022 - 2019 -- 2022 2021 - 2020 -- 2021 - 2020 -- 2021 2023 2024 2025 2023 - 2024 - 2025 - 2023 · 2024 · 2025 山东非标基差(+80) 华东非标基差 华南非标基差 500 700 г 700 г 300 500 500 100 300 300 100 -1007 100 -300 -100~ -100% -500 -300 -300 2019 2020 2021 2022 2019 - 2022 · 2020 = 2021 - 2021 - 2022 = 2019 · 2020 · 2023 2024 2023 2025 · 2024 - 2025 - 2023 2024 - 2025 BU09-12 BU06-09 BU03-06 500 - 500 - 500 300 - 300 300 100 100 100 - ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 25 日 LPG：短期利空兑现，价格有所支撑 | | | LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2508 | 4,257 | -5.65% | 4,195 | -1.46% | | 期货 | PG2509 | 4,176 | -5.78% | 4,111 | -1.56% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2508 | 176,304 | 72744 | 81,468 | 4772 | | | PG2509 | 36,951 | 9149 | 26,436 | 615 | | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 价差 | 广州国产气对08合约价差 | 543 | | 238 | | | | 广州进口气对08合约价差 | 613 | | 288 | | | | | 本周 | | 上周 | | | 产业链重要 | PDH开工率 | 66.2% | | 64.3% | | | ...

行业 沥青日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 25 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 每日报告 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（碳市场工业硅 ...

Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: June 25, 2025 [2] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices continued to decline due to Iran's missile attack on US bases in Qatar and Iraq and the expected cease - fire. In the short - term, geopolitical situations may change, and oil prices will remain highly volatile. The market will be in a state of inventory accumulation in the second half of the year. It is recommended to consider reverse spreads in the 3rd quarter, and oil prices may test the shale oil cost line in the 4th quarter [6][7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $78/barrel, closing at $67.23/barrel, with a high of $78.4/barrel, a low of $66.6/barrel, a decline of 8.95%, and a trading volume of 70.42 million lots. Brent's opening price was $78.9/barrel, closing at $69.73/barrel, with a high of $79.4/barrel, a low of $98.64/barrel, a decline of 7.62%, and a trading volume of 78.92 million lots. SC's opening price was 566.9 yuan/barrel, closing at 518.6 yuan/barrel, with a high of 572.1 yuan/barrel, a low of 518.6 yuan/barrel, a decline of 9%, and a trading volume of 52.65 million lots [6] - **Supply - side**: In the first month of OPEC's increased production, 8 member countries basically completed the planned production increase. Considering Trump's concerns about high oil prices, OPEC+ may further increase production [7] - **Demand - side**: In the June report, due to the suspension of the Sino - US tariff conflict, the crude oil demand outlook improved. However, due to the expected supply growth in countries like Brazil and Guyana, the adjustment of the balance sheet was limited, and the market will accumulate inventory in the second half of the year [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: In the short - term, oil prices will be highly volatile. Consider reverse spreads in the 3rd quarter, and oil prices may test the shale oil cost line in the 4th quarter [7] 2. Industry News - Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu agreed to Trump's cease - fire plan with Iran. The Israeli Defense Forces detected missiles launched from Iran, and the defense system was activated. The Israeli Defense Minister instructed the military to strongly respond to Iran's cease - fire violations and conduct high - intensity strikes on targets in Tehran's core areas [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, various spot prices, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories [10][12][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2020, China's ethylene production capacity has been growing rapidly, with a compound growth rate of 14.3% from 2020 to 2024. From 2025 to 2027, there are plans to put into operation nearly 30 million tons of ethylene plants, which will drive up the demand for upstream raw materials such as naphtha [2][8]. - Due to the limitations of the growth of domestic crude oil primary processing capacity and naphtha circulation volume, the growth of naphtha demand is expected to be supplemented by imports [3][9]. - Short - process ethylene/PX plants that need to purchase naphtha externally are more vulnerable to production shocks and may become the marginal capacity affecting pricing [3][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Preface - China's ethylene production capacity has been accelerating since 2020, with a five - year compound growth rate of 14.3% from 2020 to 2024. In 2024, the ethylene production capacity was 55.42 million tons, almost doubling compared to 2019. From 2025 to 2027, there are plans to put into operation nearly 30 million tons of ethylene plants. Naphtha cracking is the main process for ethylene production, accounting for 68% of the total ethylene production capacity by the end of 2024. The report aims to predict the growth of domestic naphtha demand by analyzing the existing ethylene/PX plants that need to purchase naphtha externally and the non - integrated ethylene plant construction plans from 2025 to 2027 [8]. 3.2 Existing Ethylene Plants Purchasing Naphtha Externally and Fewer PX Plants - There are about 14 ethylene plants using naphtha steam cracking in China without atmospheric and vacuum distillation capacity, with a total capacity of 10.24 million tons. These plants mainly use externally purchased naphtha as feedstock, and some also use light hydrocarbons. If fully operational, they would need to purchase more than 30 million tons of naphtha externally each year [11]. - There are relatively few PX plants purchasing naphtha externally, such as Qingdao Lidan and Fujia Dahua. This is because reforming units require heavy naphtha with higher aromatic potential requirements, while the market - circulated naphtha is mostly light naphtha [15]. 3.3 Intensive Commissioning of Steam Cracking Plants from 2025 to 2027, Potentially Further Increasing Naphtha Demand - From the end of 2024 to 2025, 14 steam cracking plants with a total capacity of 17.4 million tons are planned to be commissioned. Among them, 4 plants with a total capacity of 4.9 million tons need to purchase naphtha externally, with a theoretical external purchase demand of over 10 million tons [16]. - From 2025 to 2027 (including Q4 2024), about 31.69 million tons of ethylene cracking projects will be commissioned, mainly in 2025 - 2026. Some projects need to purchase naphtha externally. After the concentrated commissioning in 2025, several plants such as Fujian Zhongsha Petrochemical and CNOOC Shell (Phase III) will need to purchase naphtha externally from 2026 to 2028 [17]. - The growth of reforming capacity in the next few years is relatively small. About over 10 million tons of capacity will be gradually released from the end of 2024 to 2027, mostly as supporting facilities for new or expanded large - scale refineries [17]. 3.4 Limited Growth of Domestic Primary Processing Capacity, Requiring Import Supplements - Although new and改扩建 projects of refineries are expected to add over 100 million tons of atmospheric and vacuum distillation capacity, the actual growth of primary processing capacity is expected to be much lower, which may limit the increase in naphtha supply from atmospheric and vacuum distillation [23]. - According to relevant policies, by the end of 2025, the national crude oil primary processing capacity should be controlled within 1 billion tons. The elimination of old capacities may accompany the commissioning of new atmospheric and vacuum distillation capacities, restricting the increase in naphtha supply [23]. - The naphtha of domestic major refineries is mostly for self - use, with limited incremental tradable resources. The supply of naphtha from Shandong local refineries is expected to shrink, and the domestic supply gap of naphtha has been widening since 2022. The import volume is expected to further increase in 2025 [26]. - Globally, the supply of naphtha mainly comes from the Middle East, Russia, and the United States. From 2025 to 2027, the growth of naphtha supply may be relatively limited due to factors such as geopolitics and international sanctions [27]. 3.5 Early - Commissioned Plants Purchasing Naphtha Externally May Become Marginal Plants - If naphtha resources become scarce in the future, short - process ethylene/PX plants that need to purchase naphtha externally are more vulnerable to production shocks and may become the marginal capacity affecting pricing [32]. - Among the existing ethylene/PX plants purchasing naphtha externally in China, there are 3.89 million tons of ethylene plants and 1.7 million tons of PX plants commissioned before 2010. There are also many short - and medium - process plants in Japan and South Korea, and their profits may be more affected by naphtha price fluctuations [32].

Group 1 - BlackRock's stake in China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation decreased from 7.04% to 6.81% as of June 18 [1]

液化石油气日报 | 2025-06-24 地缘扰动持续，需求改善乏力 市场分析 1、\t6月23日地区价格：山东市场，4800—4850；东北市场，4130—4310；华北市场，4570—4800；华东市场， 4530—4650；沿江市场，4780—4880；西北市场，4300—4400；华南市场，4700—4748。数据来源：卓创资讯 2、\t2025年7月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷645美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，丁烷568美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷5092元/吨，涨17元/吨，丁烷4484元/吨，涨17元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年7月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷648美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，丁烷568美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷5116元/吨，涨17元/吨，丁烷4484元/吨，涨17元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 现货方面，多数区域价格稳中上涨，上游走货顺畅，下游积极入市。供应方面，海外供应维持充裕，但随伊以冲 突发酵，伊朗供应面临下行风险；国内炼厂检修结束，国内供应逐步回升，但短期到港压力有所缓和。需求方面， 燃烧需求疲软，PDH装置开工率 ...