A股开盘，三大指数涨跌不一，沪指涨0.02%报3964.65点，深证成指平开，创业板指跌0.19%。盘面 上，国际银价、铜价屡创新高，贵金属及有色金属板块涨幅延续，造纸、医药商业板块低开。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant shift in the paper industry, where major companies are reducing production or slowing down expansion, leading to a decrease in supply pressure and an improvement in the supply-demand relationship [1] - Several paper types are beginning to see price increases, indicating a strategy focused on stabilizing prices rather than competing on volume [1] - The overall demand has not shown a significant recovery, but the reduction in supply and lower inventory pressure are contributing to a structural optimization in the industry [1] Group 2 - Specific companies such as Nine Dragons Paper have seen a stock price increase of over 7%, while Chenming Paper and Lee & Man Paper have also experienced gains of approximately 3% [2] - The demand for packaging paper is receiving temporary support from the overlap of e-commerce replenishment and pre-holiday procurement, although the overall consumption recovery remains moderate [1] - Cultural paper is entering its traditional peak season, with some orders being released before the New Year and Spring Festival, but the strength of the demand recovery still needs further validation [1]

截至发稿，玖龙纸业(02689.HK)涨6.41%、理文造纸(02314.HK)涨2.84%、晨鸣纸业(018120HK)涨 1.33%。 ...

Report Overview - The report is a pulp morning report from the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center, dated December 29, 2025 [2] SP Main Contract Close Price - On December 26, 2025, the SP main contract closed at 5630.00 [3] - The daily price changes from December 22 - 26 were 2.10679%, -0.03557%, 0.00000%, -0.28470%, and 0.46395% respectively [3] - The basis for Shandong Yinxing on December 26 was -40, and for Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai Yinxing was -70 [3] Import Pulp Prices and Profits - Based on a 13% VAT calculation, the import profit for Canadian Golden Lion was 51.39, for Canadian Lion was -287.55, and for Chilean Yinxing was -24.91 [4] Pulp and Paper Price Averages - From December 22 - 26, 2025, the national and Shandong regional average prices of coniferous pulp, broad - leaf pulp, natural pulp, and chemical mechanical pulp remained unchanged [4] - The indices of cultural paper (double - offset and double - copper), packaging paper (white card), and living paper also showed no change during this period [4] - The estimated profit margins of double - offset, double - copper, white card, and living paper remained constant from December 23 - 26 [4] Pulp Price Spreads - The price spreads between coniferous and broad - leaf, coniferous and natural, coniferous and chemical mechanical, and coniferous and waste paper pulp showed little change from December 22 - 26 [4]

浆价涨价函陆续发布，当下时点如何看待造纸龙头竞争优 势 20251227 摘要 浆价进入上行周期，多家供应商提价，主要驱动因素包括海外新增产能 有限、国内木片供应缺口扩大导致成本支撑增强，以及国内自制浆企业 议价能力提升。人民币汇率短期强势缓解了进口成本压力。 文化纸价格已触及历史低点，中小企业面临生存困境。需求萎缩和供需 矛盾突出是主要原因。行业格局有望通过长期底部运行加速中小企业退 出，具备成本优势的龙头企业将坚守市场。 白卡纸价格自 2025 年八九月份开始反弹，四季度终端执行涨幅约 300 元/吨。驱动因素包括旺季需求、废纸禁令及行业联合挺价。预计 2026 年初价格将逐步回归合理区间，自制浆配套龙头企业将率先受益。 废纸系产品方面，上半年废纸价格坚挺但瓦楞箱板纸价格下跌，下半年 在成本推动和联合挺价下瓦楞箱板纸价格上涨。但 11 月至今因库存高 企抛售库存等原因废纸运价格回落，使原纸运承压。长期看，废纸运供 应偏紧格局未变，龙头企业受益更明显。 Q&A 近期全球商品浆市场的价格变化情况如何？其背后的驱动因素有哪些？ 从 2025 年末开始，全球商品浆市场迎来了集中的涨价函。巴西的苏丹诺宣布 12 月 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Bohui Paper Industry Company Overview - Bohui Paper Industry is a leading player in the white cardboard sector with 30 years of industry experience. The company operates two major production bases in Shandong and Jiangsu, with the Jiangsu base having a capacity of 2 million tons of white cardboard, contributing 80%-90% of the company's profits due to its scale, high matching rate, and logistical advantages from proximity to ports [4][5]. Industry Insights - The paper industry is currently facing overcapacity, with new capacity expected to nearly double in 2024-2025, leading to a decline in operating rates to 50%-60%. Despite stable demand growth, the imbalance between supply and demand has caused a drop in white cardboard prices [2][6]. - The "paper replaces plastic" policy is expected to support long-term growth in white cardboard, with a forecasted reduction in new capacity by 2026, alongside a recovery in domestic demand and strong export performance [2][7]. Price Trends and Influencing Factors - Since September 2025, white cardboard prices have been increasing due to rising raw material costs, with price recoveries of 370 CNY/ton in South China and 230 CNY/ton in East China. Factors such as production halts in Zhanjiang and increased seasonal demand have also supported price recovery [2][8]. Operational Efficiency and Financial Health - Bohui has shown significant improvements in operational efficiency and cash flow quality. The company plans to integrate resources in 2026 to address industry competition, which is expected to benefit its development. Continuous price increases are anticipated to enhance profit elasticity [2][9]. - The company has maintained a stable debt-to-asset ratio of around 70%, with cash flow sufficient to cover interest expenses [11]. Revenue and Profit Performance - Over the past few years, Bohui's revenue has steadily increased, although profits have fluctuated. The company experienced a peak in 2021, followed by a period of marginal profits from 2022 to 2024. Despite this, the overall balance sheet and cash flow remain healthy [10]. Impact of APP's Acquisition - Following the acquisition by APP, Bohui has seen a notable decrease in per-ton financial, management, and sales expenses, leading to significant operational improvements. The integration has also enhanced employee motivation and expanded the R&D and sales teams [11][13]. Product Development and Innovation - Bohui has made significant strides in R&D, including breakthroughs in core technologies for sterile liquid packaging and digital empowerment of production operations, which have improved production efficiency and yield rates [3][14]. Raw Material Procurement and Energy Structure - The company primarily uses chemical pulp, with a low self-supply ratio, benefiting from synergies with APP. Most wood pulp is sourced from the Asian APP Group, and the energy structure relies mainly on electricity and steam from affiliated parties, enhancing future efficiency [15]. Future Outlook - Overall, Bohui is expected to have a positive development outlook through improved internal management, cost structure optimization, and product innovation, alongside synergies with APP. The focus on sustainable development and high-quality growth is anticipated to further enhance operational efficiency and achieve cost reduction goals [16].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of the appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) on various industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, paper, aviation, and real estate. The focus is also on the financial sector, particularly banks and insurance companies, as well as the performance of the Hong Kong stock market. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Outlook and Trends** - The market is expected to undergo a short-term consolidation, waiting for support from the five-day moving average, with a bullish sentiment anticipated post-New Year [1][2] - The upcoming announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chair by President Trump is seen as a potential catalyst for market movement [3][4] 2. **Beneficial Industries from RMB Appreciation** - Industries benefiting from RMB appreciation include steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, paper, and aviation fuel on the cost side, while airlines and real estate are on the liability side [1][5] - The financial sector, particularly state-owned banks and insurance companies, is expected to see asset revaluation due to foreign capital inflow [6][7] 3. **Investment Recommendations** - Three main investment directions are recommended: - **RMB Asset Revaluation**: Focus on industries benefiting from RMB strength, including steel, petrochemicals, and aviation [5][7] - **Overseas Expansion**: Anticipation of strong overseas economic growth in 2026, with a focus on the "奔马 50" portfolio, which has shown a 10% absolute return recently [5][11] - **Tech IPO Supply Chain**: Companies related to tech IPOs, such as Suiren and Changxin Storage, are expected to benefit from increased capital expenditure [5] 4. **Historical Performance During RMB Appreciation** - Historical data indicates that sectors like steel, petrochemicals, and consumer goods have shown positive performance during previous RMB appreciation periods [9] 5. **Evaluation of Industry Benefits** - The evaluation of industry benefits during RMB appreciation is based on three dimensions: sensitivity of net profit to exchange rate changes, changes in gross profit margins, and improvements in foreign exchange gains reported in financial statements [8] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Impact of Year-End Settlement Demand** - Year-end corporate settlement demand is expected to support the RMB exchange rate, with employment demand at a high level [10] 2. **Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior** - The market is expected to see reduced activity as many institutional investors take holidays, leading to a potential decrease in trading volume [2] 3. **Potential Risks** - Concerns about the withdrawal of large funds from the A500 ETF post-New Year, although there is optimism that insurance funds may continue to invest due to bullish market expectations [4]

周乃翔来到山东信义汽车配件制造有限公司，实地察看新能源汽车高端制动系统研发制造项目生产 车间，希望企业紧扣新能源汽车发展趋势，加大研发投入，提升产品品质，加强市场开拓。在华泰集 团，他听取造纸产业大脑AI能力中心情况介绍，勉励企业强化党建引领，充分发挥"链主"带动作用，更 加注重科技创新、数字化转型、绿色发展，持续优化产品结构，推动造纸产业提质升级。在贵研催化剂 （东营）有限公司，他与企业负责人交流，指出要强化产业链联动，推动上下游企业协同创新、融通发 展，以过硬技术、优质产品赢得更大市场。在华东（东营）智能网联汽车试验场，他详细询问试验场运 行情况，强调要积极稳妥推进项目建设，丰富场景业态，提升服务品质，为用户提供更智能、便捷、高 效的场地服务。 调研中，周乃翔指出，要抓紧抓好岁末年初各项工作，关心困难群众生产生活，做好煤电油气生产 供应，保障粮油肉蛋奶果蔬等生活必需品供应充足、价格平稳，抓好农业生产，切实保障群众平安便捷 出行。要压紧压实安全生产责任，开展好安全生产大检查，加强各行业领域以及人员密集场所、"九小 场所"等重点场所安全治理，坚决防止各类事故发生。要加强各类矛盾纠纷排查化解，强化社会面巡防 管 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views of the Report - This week's pulp futures prices reached a new high since April, with the main contract rising to 5710 yuan/ton on the 23rd, showing a wide - range volatile trend as expected. The main influencing factors include foreign market price support, the macro - sentiment impact of the RMB breaking 7, and capital fluctuations. [2] - It is expected that the pulp futures prices will continue to fluctuate in a wide range next week, with a possibility of a high - level decline. [3] - In the short - term, the futures prices are affected by the capital side, and the fundamentals are slightly stronger than before, with some support at the bottom. In the long - term, the impact of near - term warehouse receipts has been mostly priced in, while the supply of long - term warehouse receipts is uncertain, which brings some positive factors. The macro - sentiment may weaken due to the possible halt of the Fed's interest - rate cut process, but there may be positive policy factors in the domestic market. [4][5] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core factors this week are foreign market price support, the macro - sentiment impact of the RMB breaking 7, and capital fluctuations. The futures prices reached a new high, with the main contract rising to 5710 yuan/ton. Suzano's price increase in the Asian market in January and the RMB breaking 7 provided cost support and positive sentiment, respectively. Capital fluctuations led to wide - range volatility. [2] - From the fundamental perspective, China's pulp port inventory decreased by 8.7 tons this week, which is a significant de - stocking and is one of the reasons for the high - level volatility of futures prices. [2] - In terms of terminal demand, the operating rates of downstream paper types showed mixed changes, and the demand was relatively weaker than last week. The import price of softwood pulp increased by 0.02%, with a further narrowing of the increase, which still has a supporting effect but is difficult to drive the futures prices up further. [2] 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Not detailed in the document 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management of enterprises with high inventories of pulp and offset printing paper, it is recommended to short pulp/offset printing paper futures to lock in profits and sell call options to collect premiums and reduce costs. The recommended hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry intervals are 5500 - 5600 for pulp and 4350 - 4400 for offset printing paper. [9] - For procurement management of papermaking enterprises with low inventories, it is recommended to buy pulp/offset printing paper futures to lock in procurement costs in advance and sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs. The recommended hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry intervals are 5000 - 5100 for pulp and 4000 - 4100 for offset printing paper. [9] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Likely Positive Information**: The RMB breaking 7, Suzano's price increase of 20 dollars in the Asian market in January, and the further decline of port inventory [14] - **Likely Negative Information**: The relatively high valuation of futures prices and the shutdown plan of leading paper enterprises in the first quarter of 2026 [13] - **Spot Transaction Information**: The pulp price shows a range - bound trend, with the main contract range of [5550, 5650]. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations in the futures market, with a small amount of high - short strategies, and to wait and see for options. Temporarily wait and see for basis and arbitrage strategies. [13] Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - The SP2605 contract continued to fluctuate in a wide range this week. The RSI indicator once reached the over - bought range and then declined. Currently, the technical indicators are slightly bearish. [20] 3.2 Base and Spread Structure - Not detailed in the document Chapter 4: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 4.1 Supply - On December 26th, the inventory was 190.6 tons (- 8.7), which is a significant de - stocking and has a positive effect. The warehouse receipts have reached an absolute low compared to the same period. The price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp has gradually converged to a normal level, which is positive. [32] - In November, the domestic monthly import volume of softwood pulp was 81.99 tons, an increase from October. The global pulp shipment volume to China increased by 3.85% month - on - month in November, which will put pressure on future de - stocking. [32] 4.2 Demand - The downstream finished paper inventories of enterprises continue to accumulate, and the profit margins have declined this week, which restricts the raw material replenishment actions of downstream enterprises. [32] - The operating rates and production of various types of finished paper show different trends, and the export and consumption also have their own characteristics, which are presented in the corresponding seasonal charts. [68][73][76][82]

Group 1 - The provincial government emphasizes the need to develop new productive forces tailored to local conditions and to accelerate the cultivation of new driving forces for high-quality development [1] - The government encourages companies in the automotive sector, such as Shandong Xinyi Auto Parts Manufacturing Co., to increase R&D investment and enhance product quality in line with the trends in new energy vehicles [2] - The government highlights the importance of technological innovation, digital transformation, and green development in the paper industry, urging companies like Huatai Group to optimize product structure and improve quality [2] Group 2 - The government stresses the need to ensure stable supply and prices of essential goods, including grains and vegetables, while also focusing on agricultural production and public safety [3] - There is a call for enhanced safety production responsibilities and thorough safety inspections across various industries to prevent accidents [3] - The government aims to stimulate consumer vitality and expand effective investment to promote steady growth in the industrial economy and accelerate the development of the service sector [3]