1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals and related products, provides short - and medium - term trend judgments and investment strategies based on factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and macro - environment. It recommends short - selling strategies for some metals like tin and aluminum, and suggests different trading directions according to the specific situation of each variety [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market sentiment and macro - factors**: After the "Big Beautiful" bill was signed, market attention shifted to tariffs. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in late July is considered low, and the US dollar index rebounded. The US labor market is generally stable [1]. - **Domestic supply and demand**: It is in the consumption off - season. SMM social inventory increased by 11,000 tons to 142,900 tons, and the copper product start - up rates declined. Except for stable power grid demand, the demand for home appliances and motors decreased significantly. The processing fee has bottomed out but improved little. The copper output in June decreased slightly, and the refined copper output is expected to increase in July [1]. - **Overseas news**: Chile's copper output in May reached the highest this year, with a year - on - year increase of 9.4%. The Cobre Panama mine has shipped over 33,000 tons of copper concentrate after easing relations with the government [1]. - **Trend**: The Shanghai copper price was blocked at 81,000 yuan. In the medium - and long - term, it is recommended to focus on short - selling at high levels. In the short - term, the Shanghai copper main contract will first fill the gap at 78,900 yuan [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina situation**: The transaction of Guinea bauxite is deadlocked, and the price is stable at $75 per ton. The operating capacity of alumina increased by 400,000 tons to 9.355 million tons, and the total industry inventory increased slightly. The futures - spot price of alumina increased, and the futures month - spread widened [1]. - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable at 4.39 - 4.4 million tons, with no expected capacity changes in the short term [1]. - **Demand**: The start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1% to 58.7%. Different sectors such as aluminum plate and strip, aluminum cable, aluminum profile, and aluminum foil all face challenges in demand [1]. - **Inventory and spot**: Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased. The spot price in some regions decreased, and the aluminum rod processing fee in South China remained at a very low level [1]. - **Trend**: There is inventory accumulation, weak downstream start - up, and the spot price turned to a discount. The high position of the Shanghai aluminum index indicates large market differences. Attention should be paid to whether long - positions will reduce their positions [1]. Zinc - **Market trend**: The zinc price rebounded but did not break through the previous high, showing a weak trend. The import window remained closed [1]. - **Supply**: LME inventory continued to decline, mainly due to imports to China. The TC continued to rise, and new smelting capacities contributed to the increase. Some smelters increased or resumed production, while others reduced or suspended production. The social inventory increased, indicating a possible inventory inflection point [1]. - **Consumption**: It is in the off - season. The "Big and Beautiful" bill and US economic data affected the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Both domestic and foreign demand are under pressure, and the consumption negative feedback dragged down the zinc price [1]. - **Trend**: With increasing supply and weak demand, the strategy of short - selling on rebounds remains unchanged [1]. Lead - **Market situation**: The London lead price was driven up by external funds, which also pulled up the Shanghai lead price. The Shanghai lead price stabilized above 17,000 yuan [1]. - **Spot and supply**: The supply of lead concentrates remains tight. The TC of domestic and imported ores decreased. The production of primary lead increased overall, and some refineries actively shipped. The refined - scrap lead price difference remained low. The total supply of lead ingots increased year - on - year, and the proportion of primary lead production increased [1]. - **Consumption**: LME lead inventory decreased, and overseas consumption was weak. The domestic consumption is in the transition period between off - season and peak season. The start - up rate of lead - acid battery enterprises increased, but the downstream was afraid of high prices, and the social inventory increased [1]. - **Trend**: Consumption is advanced, and the marginal increase in demand is affected by US tariffs. The difference between peak and off - seasons is gradually blurred. Long - positions can be held with 17,000 yuan as the support, and attention should be paid to the pressure level of 17,800 yuan [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Futures market**: The Shanghai nickel price rebounded, and the market was active. The Shanghai stainless steel performance was slightly weaker [1]. - **Macro and demand**: The "anti - involution" theme has fermented, but the downstream is in the off - season, and the procurement intention is low [1]. - **Spot and supply**: The premium of different nickel products varies. The change in the Indonesian nickel ore quota period affected the market sentiment. The upstream price support weakened. The nickel iron inventory increased, the pure nickel inventory decreased, and the stainless steel inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level [1]. - **Trend**: The Shanghai nickel is still in a short - selling trend, and short - positions should be held [1]. Tin - **Market trend**: The domestic and overseas tin prices were blocked at 270,000 yuan and $34,000 respectively, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. The previous rise of the tin price was mainly driven by funds [1]. - **Supply**: The geopolitical risk between the DRC and Rwanda decreased. The domestic concentrate processing fee remained low, and the resumption of supply from mines is expected to be delayed until August. The output in July may increase slightly or remain flat. The Malaysian smelter resumed production, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [1]. - **Consumption**: After entering the delivery month, the domestic spot price increase was limited. The social inventory increased. The market is concerned about the impact of photovoltaic policies and UK tariffs on tin demand [1]. - **Trend**: The short - selling strategy remains unchanged. Hold the short - positions at the previous high of 268,000 - 272,000 yuan, and the tin price may fall back to 262,000 yuan [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures market**: The lithium carbonate price fluctuated at a low level, trying to break through upwards, and the market divergence decreased [1]. - **Spot market**: The Shanghai electrolytic carbon spot price stabilized and increased by 2%. The price increase was supported by the expected improvement in demand in July and some rigid procurement orders. The market is in a tug - of - war between upstream and downstream [1]. - **Macro and demand**: There is an expected increase in production in July, but the actual recovery needs to be observed. The market demand is divided, with a slight decline in power battery orders and good performance in energy storage demand [1]. - **Supply**: The total market inventory continued to rise. The smelter inventory decreased slightly, the downstream inventory decreased slightly, and the trader inventory increased. The price of Australian ore rebounded, and the mid - stream production decreased slightly [1]. - **Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures price rebounded. With high inventory and rising ore prices, there is still room for rebound under the influence of the "anti - involution" theme [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The futures price fluctuated between 7,700 - 8,200 yuan per ton, and the spot price increased by 450 yuan per ton [1]. - **Supply**: The start - up in Xinjiang decreased significantly, while some enterprises in Yunnan resumed production in the wet season, but the electricity price is higher than that in Sichuan [1]. - **Inventory**: The de - stocking rhythm did not continue, and the social inventory increased by 10,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The "anti - involution" of polysilicon boosted the market, and the demand from the organic silicon industry provided support [1]. - **Trend**: The silicon price is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range due to the marginal improvement in demand and the unresolved supply pressure [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The price center of polysilicon moved up significantly, mainly due to the emphasis on "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic industry [1]. - **Supply**: With the arrival of the wet season in the southwest, leading enterprises may increase production, and the total output is expected to exceed 100,000 tons [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 272,000 tons, and the number of warehouse receipts increased slightly [1]. - **Demand**: The silicon wafer price continued to decline, the battery sector relied on export orders, the component new orders were insufficient, and the terminal procurement decreased due to policy transition [1]. - **Trend**: The "anti - involution" expectation has not been fully digested, and the theme still has room for development [1]. Recommended Strategies - Short - sell Shanghai tin above 270,000 yuan. In the long - term, the fundamental trend will suppress the high tin price [1]. - Short - sell Shanghai aluminum on rallies. The high open interest may lead to a market reversal, and short - selling can be considered due to weak downstream demand [1].

Group 1 - The EU is seeking to finalize a preliminary trade agreement with the US by July 9, aiming for a 10% tariff rate and laying the groundwork for a permanent agreement [1][3] - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had a positive discussion with President Trump, increasing hopes for an agreement before the deadline [1][3] - The EU may make limited concessions on tariffs for aircraft, medical devices, and spirits, while still pursuing exemptions for key products [1][3] Group 2 - The EU is pushing for the US to provide quotas and exemptions to reduce the 25% tariffs on cars and parts, as well as the 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum, although these terms may not be included in the upcoming agreement [1][3] - There are internal divisions within the EU regarding whether to accept an "asymmetrical" agreement, with some members advocating for a quick deal to avoid uncertainty, while others prefer to enhance their negotiating position [3][4] Group 3 - The US has postponed the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" until August 1, which could lead to a significant increase in tariffs on nearly all EU exports if no agreement is reached [4] - The EU has already approved tariffs on $21 billion worth of US goods in response to US metal tariffs and is preparing additional tariffs on $95 billion worth of US products [4][5] Group 4 - The trade relationship between the US and EU has been strained, with the US imposing higher tariffs since Trump's administration, impacting both economies negatively [5] - Research indicates that a 10% to 25% tariff increase on European imports could lead to a 0.3% decline in EU GDP and a 0.7% decline in US GDP [5]

Group 1 - The current trading price of paper gold is around 768.06 CNY per gram, with a slight increase of 0.31% [1] - The highest price reached today is 771.68 CNY per gram, while the lowest is 765.59 CNY per gram, indicating a short-term oscillating trend [1] - Key resistance levels for paper gold are identified between 775 CNY per gram and 800 CNY per gram, with important support levels ranging from 760 CNY per gram to 800 CNY per gram [3] Group 2 - Australia currently faces a relatively low U.S. tariff rate of 10%, but is still impacted by specific tariffs on the steel and aluminum industries [2] - The Australian Productivity Commission's analysis suggests that proposed U.S. tariff adjustments could have a mild but positive impact on the Australian economy, potentially increasing GDP by approximately 0.37 percentage points [2] - The report warns that growing global economic uncertainty is becoming a constraint on economic activity, affecting household consumption, business investment, and trade policy stability [2]

Group 1: Copper - This week, copper prices showed a reverse V-shaped trend. The ADP and non-farm payroll data diverged, causing the overall interest rate cut expectation to fluctuate. Trump's "Great Beauty" Act was implemented, and short-term broad fiscal policies may have a certain stimulating effect [1]. - Domestically, inventory has increased, and the start-up rate has declined significantly. It is expected to continue to decline during the off-season from July to August, and overall copper consumption by downstream industries has been somewhat suppressed [1]. - The spread between refined and scrap copper has widened this week, weakening the substitution effect. It is expected that there will be a moderate inventory increase from July to August [1]. - With the S232 investigation pending, there is still strong support below the copper price. A significant drop would require a macro black swan event, which is currently unlikely. During the off-season in the third quarter, the copper price is expected to have some adjustment room due to inventory accumulation and the decline in the refined-scrap substitution effect [1]. Group 2: Aluminum - Supply has increased slightly, with aluminum ingot imports providing an increment from January to May. In July, demand is expected to weaken seasonally, with aluminum product exports remaining stable and photovoltaic demand declining. Supply and demand are expected to be balanced [1]. - In terms of inventory, supply and demand are expected to be balanced in July. The short-term fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to demand. In a low-inventory situation, attention should be paid to inter-month spreads and reverse arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [1]. Group 3: Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely. In July, the domestic TC increased by 200 yuan/ton compared to June, and the imported TC increased slightly. Some smelters are undergoing maintenance in July, but new production capacities in the southwest and central China have been realized, and the zinc ingot output is expected to increase by more than 5,000 tons month-on-month [4]. - On the demand side, domestic demand has weakened seasonally. The spot premium in North China has turned to a discount, and those in East and South China have basically leveled off. Overseas, demand in Europe is weak, but some smelters face certain production resistance due to processing fees, and the spot premium has increased slightly [4]. - Domestically, social inventory has increased oscillatingly. Due to more factory pick-ups at the current price, the inventory accumulation of social inventory is slightly slower than expected. Overseas, LME inventory has decreased oscillatingly since May, mainly because more overseas zinc ingots have flowed into China [4]. - The strategy remains to short zinc and sell on rallies. The long domestic and short foreign arbitrage can continue to be held [4]. Group 4: Lead - This week, lead prices rose moderately. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weaker year-on-year. The expansion of recycling plants has led to a shortage of demand for scrap batteries. Although the low profit has improved this week, the operating rate remains low. The willingness of recyclers to sell at a high price has weakened [7]. - From April to June, the operation rate of concentrate mines increased, but the supply of domestic and foreign concentrates has tightened, and the TC is in a mess [7]. - On the demand side, battery inventory is high. This week, the battery operating rate rebounded, and the market has expectations for the peak season. The refined-scrap spread is -50, the willingness of recycled lead producers to sell has increased, but the reception is poor. There is speculation about cancelled LME warehouse receipts [7]. - From April to July, overall consumption during the off-season is weak, and orders only meet the rigid demand. This week's price increase is due to speculation about the improvement in battery stocking demand and overseas cancelled warehouse receipts, but in reality, downstream buyers only replenish their inventories for rigid demand at high prices [7]. - The profit of recycled lead has improved, but the operating rate has not increased. The willingness of scrap battery owners to sell at a high price is strong, and the price support behavior is weaker than in the previous upward cycle. The willingness of recycled lead producers to sell has improved, but the reception is poor. The refined-scrap spread is -50, and the lead ingot spot is at a discount of 40, mainly maintaining long-term orders [7]. - It is expected that lead will oscillate in the range of 17,100 - 17,500 next week. If the macro situation affects the lead price to remain above 17,200, it may trigger the risk of a price support cycle. In July, primary lead supply is expected to decrease slightly, and demand is weak [7]. Group 5: Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the short-term resumption of production in Wa State, Myanmar, still needs negotiation. The processing fee for tin ore is at a low level, and the smelting profit is inverted. Some smelters in Jiangxi Province, China, have reduced production, and those in Yunnan Province are still struggling to maintain production. In June, the output of tin ingots decreased by more than 1 kt month-on-month [9]. - Overseas, except for Wa State, supply disruptions have basically subsided. The import volume from the Democratic Republic of the Congo in May exceeded expectations, mainly due to traders' inventories [9]. - On the demand side, the elasticity of solder is limited, and the growth rates of the terminal electronics and photovoltaic industries are expected to decline significantly. Domestic inventory has increased oscillatingly. Overseas consumption rush continues, but the LME inventory is at a low level, and the inflection point of inventory accumulation is gradually emerging [9]. - On the spot side, the supply of small-brand tin ingots remains tight. Most of the exchange inventory is high-priced Yunzi-brand tin ingots, and downstream buyers have no strong willingness to pick them up [9]. - In the short term, there are both disturbances in domestic raw material supply and expectations of consumption decline. It is expected that supply and demand will remain weak in the first half of the year. June and July may be the key stages to verify whether the tightness of tin ore will be transmitted to the tightness of tin ingots, and the bottom has strong support [9]. - In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. In the long term, pay attention to shorting opportunities after the maintenance period [9]. Group 6: Industrial Silicon - This week, Hesheng's Xinjiang production area continued to reduce production, while those in Yunnan and Sichuan increased slightly. Overall, due to the significant production reduction of leading enterprises, the production in July and subsequent months is expected to decline from the previous expectation of a significant increase, and the supply-demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction [13]. - If Hesheng continues to maintain the production reduction, the spot price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. Previously, against the background of the futures price hitting a new low, the basis strengthened rapidly, stimulating the long-suppressed speculative and replenishment sentiments of downstream industries. The de-stocking speed of warehouse receipts and non-standard products has been significant, and the spot price has been strong. The unexpected production reduction of leading enterprises has a significant marginal impact on the supply-demand balance, and there is a resumption of production in the downstream polysilicon industry [13]. Group 7: Lithium Carbonate - This week, lithium carbonate prices increased due to the promotion of the "anti-involution" policy. Spot transactions are mainly based on the 09 contract price. The price difference between upstream and downstream has led to average transactions. Downstream buyers settle at a later point in time, and there is inventory dumping at a reduced basis [13]. - The high price has stimulated the resumption of some production lines in Sichuan, and salt lakes continue to increase production. However, some factories have maintenance plans, and the hedging profit of externally purchased projects is abundant and production is ongoing [13]. - Downstream buyers are highly cautious and only maintain a safety inventory. Overall, inventory has increased this week. The willingness to deliver goods to the warehouse has improved, and the registered warehouse receipts have increased [13]. - In the medium and long term, there are many expansion projects for ore and lithium salt production capacities. If the operating rates of leading mining and smelting integrated enterprises do not decrease significantly, the lithium carbonate price will still fluctuate weakly. In the short term, downstream demand is weak, and the reduction in new energy vehicle consumer loans has not improved demand as expected [13]. - The lithium ore price has rebounded, and downstream buyers are cautious and replenish their inventories only for rigid demand. At the current price rebound, the profit of externally purchased smelters has improved, and they have resumed production. The profit of self-owned mines has increased, and the market clearance pace may be delayed [13]. - In the future, the supply elasticity is high. Large factories in Sichuan and previously maintained and technically improved enterprises are resuming production. Attention should be paid to the resumption time of the Jiuxiaowo project of CATL. Demand has not improved significantly. It is expected that the supply will continue to exceed demand next week, leading to inventory accumulation, which will put upward pressure on the price. The fundamental oversupply situation has not been significantly reversed. However, the "anti-involution" competition policy may boost sentiment, and risks need to be guarded against [13]. Group 8: Nickel - On the supply side, the production of pure nickel remains at a high level, and the import of nickel beans increased in May. On the demand side, overall demand is weak, and the LME premium has strengthened slightly [15]. - On the inventory side, overseas nickel plate inventory remains stable, while domestic inventory has decreased slightly. After the rumor that the Philippines' ban on raw ore exports has been abolished, concerns about supply disruptions in the ore market have eased. The short-term real fundamentals are average, and opportunities for narrowing the nickel-stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [15]. Group 9: Stainless Steel - From the supply side, some steel mills have been forced to reduce production since late May. On the demand side, demand is mainly for rigid needs. In terms of cost, the prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable [17]. - In terms of inventory, inventory has increased slightly in Xijiao and Foshan, and some exchange warehouse receipts have expired and been de-stocked. The overall fundamentals remain weak. After the demand fades, the pressure on the spot market increases, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [17].

Group 1 - The EU is seeking to reach a preliminary trade agreement with the US this week to lock in a 10% tariff rate before the August 1 deadline while continuing negotiations for a permanent agreement [1] - The EU aims to exempt certain key products from the 10% tariff, including aircraft, aircraft parts, wine, and spirits, with some form of reduction expected as part of the preliminary agreement [1][4] - The US has announced a delay of the previously scheduled universal tariffs, originally set for July 9, until at least early August [1] Group 2 - The EU is urging the US to implement quotas and exemptions to effectively lower the 25% tariff on cars and car parts, as well as the 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum, although immediate breakthroughs on these tariffs are not anticipated [5] - Discussions are ongoing regarding a compensation mechanism that would allow companies producing cars in the US to export a certain number of tax-exempt vehicles [5] - Any preliminary agreement may be short-lived and non-binding, with both parties aiming to reach consensus on non-tariff barriers, digital trade, and economic security [5] Group 3 - There are divisions among EU member states regarding the acceptance of an imbalanced agreement, with some advocating for a swift deal while others prefer a stronger negotiating position [5] - The EU has approved tariffs on €21 billion ($24.6 billion) worth of US goods in response to US metal tariffs [6] - An additional list of tariffs targeting €95 billion worth of US goods is prepared by the EU in response to US tariffs on industrial products, including Boeing aircraft and American-made cars [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [12]. Core Views - The gold market is expected to maintain an upward trend due to the Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cut cycle [12]. - Short-term demand for copper and aluminum may weaken, but long-term supply-demand dynamics are expected to remain tight [12]. - Tin prices are supported by tight supply, while antimony prices are expected to remain weak in the short term but are supported by long-term supply constraints [12]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) saw a 6.3% increase over one month, 8.6% over three months, and 16.7% over twelve months, outperforming the CSI 300 index [3][21]. Gold Market - The average gold price in London was $3,331.90 per ounce, up 1.83% from the previous week [32]. - The SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 230,000 ounces to 30.47 million ounces [33]. Copper Market - LME copper closed at $9,880 per ton, a 0.25% increase from the previous week, while SHFE copper closed at 79,990 yuan per ton, a 0.11% decrease [41]. - Domestic copper social inventory was reported at 131,800 tons, a 0.17% increase from the previous week [41]. Aluminum Market - Domestic electrolytic aluminum price was 20,750 yuan per ton, down 0.91% from the previous week [42]. - The operating rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises was reported at 49.5%, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points [42]. Tin Market - Domestic refined tin price was 267,820 yuan per ton, down 0.88% from the previous week [43]. - LME tin inventory decreased by 65 tons to 2,110 tons [43]. Antimony Market - Domestic antimony ingot price was 185,500 yuan per ton, down 2.11% from the previous week [43]. Recommended Stocks - Gold industry recommendations include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold [12]. - Copper industry recommendations include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining [12]. - Aluminum industry recommendations include Shenhuo Co., Yunnan Aluminum, and Tianshan Aluminum [12]. - Tin industry recommendations include Xiyang Silver Tin and Huaxi Nonferrous [12].

Group 1: Overall Market Analysis - The expiration of the tariff suspension period has cooled global risk appetite. The US tax - cut bill has been passed, and countries face pressure to reach trade agreements with the US, leading to a slight decline in the US dollar index. In China, the PMI data in June continued to rise, and domestic consumption policies and the "anti - involution" emphasis have boosted domestic risk appetite. The short - term recovery of foreign markets and the appreciation of the RMB have also improved market sentiment [2]. - The overall view on asset classes is that the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with cautious long positions recommended; treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate at a high level, with cautious observation recommended; in the commodity sector, black metals are expected to rebound from low - level fluctuations, with cautious long positions; non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate strongly, with cautious long positions; energy and chemicals are expected to fluctuate, with cautious observation; precious metals are expected to fluctuate at a high level, with cautious long positions [2]. Group 2: Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as cross - border payment, gaming, and banking, the domestic stock market continued to rise. The recovery of China's June PMI data, strengthened domestic consumption policies, and the "anti - involution" emphasis have boosted domestic risk appetite. The short - term recovery of foreign markets and RMB appreciation have also improved market sentiment. The trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. Short - term macro - upward momentum has increased. It is recommended to be cautiously long in the short term [3]. Group 3: Precious Metals - The precious metals market oscillated last week. With the Middle - East cease - fire agreement, the focus shifted to the Russia - Ukraine war, and overall risk cooled in the short term. The approaching tariff deadline and the US - Vietnam agreement have increased optimistic tariff expectations. However, trade negotiations between the US and other countries are still ongoing. The better - than - expected non - farm data has cooled the expectation of interest - rate cuts, and the rebound of US bond yields has suppressed gold prices. The "Big Beautiful Act" will increase debt pressure, providing long - term support for gold. The tariff negotiation situation will be the main short - term influencing factor, and the volatility of gold is expected to rise in the short term [5]. Group 4: Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly last Friday, but trading volume remained low. Overseas, tariff policies need attention; domestically, the "anti - involution" policy is a factor. The news of Tangshan's production restrictions led to a rebound in the futures market, increasing speculative demand, but the off - season still affected terminal demand. On the supply side, the impact of production - restriction policies emerged, with a 1.44 - million - ton week - on - week decline in hot - metal production, while the output of finished products still increased slightly. Cost support remained strong. The steel market is expected to be strong in the short term [6]. Iron Ore - The spot price of iron ore was flat last Friday, and the futures price rebounded slightly. Hot - metal production decreased by 1.44 million tons last week after two consecutive weeks of rebound, indicating the effect of production - restriction policies. The implementation of production - restriction policies needs further attention. In terms of supply, the shipping volume decreased by 149 million tons week - on - week, and the arrival volume increased by 178 million tons. Although the second and third quarters are the peak shipping seasons, the shipping volume may decline after the end - of - quarter rush. The port inventory increased by 46.67 million tons. Iron ore is expected to be strong in the short term due to macro factors but may decline in the medium term [6]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat last Friday. The output of five major steel products increased, and the demand for ferroalloys was fair. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the northern market was 5480 - 5530 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5500 - 5550 yuan/ton. The futures price rebounded slightly, driving up the spot price of manganese ore. The start - up rate of silicon manganese enterprises increased by 1.13% to 40.34%, and the daily output increased by 125 tons. The inventory of silicon iron enterprises is being depleted slowly, and prices are expected to adjust narrowly in the short term. The silicon iron and silicon manganese markets are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [7][8]. Group 5: Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Tariff news is uncertain. Although Trump threatened higher tariffs, it may be a negotiation strategy. The US is likely to impose at least a 10% tariff in the long run. The non - farm data was better than expected, but the private - sector employment slowed, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts cooled. In 2025, China's refined copper output continued to increase. From January to May, the copper output reached 6.593 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4%. After excluding sample expansion, the increase was still 6.7%. Despite high production, the copper inventory is in good condition, at a relatively low level [9]. Aluminum - The aluminum price fell slightly last Friday, affected by the overall decline in commodities. The weighted open interest of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 7654 lots. The LME inventory continued to increase. Domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods started to accumulate inventory, indicating the end of the de - stocking phase. The inventory is expected to remain stable or increase, following the seasonal trend. The warehouse receipts increased significantly [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The industry has entered the off - season, with weak growth in manufacturing orders. However, the tight supply of scrap aluminum has supported the price of cast aluminum alloy from the cost side. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited due to weak demand [9]. Tin - On the supply side, the combined start - up rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi increased by 7.13% for two consecutive weeks, although still at a relatively low level. The supply from Myanmar's Wa State is becoming more relaxed. On the demand side, the photovoltaic industry, an important downstream of tin solder, is in the off - season, with a decrease in orders. The demand for lead - acid batteries is weak, and the demand for tin - plated sheets and tin chemicals is stable. As the tin price rises, the downstream is hesitant to buy, and the inventory increased by 658 tons this week. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upside will be restricted in the medium term due to high - tariff risks,复产 expectations, and declining demand [10][11]. Lithium Carbonate - On the supply side, there is a contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality. The "anti - involution" policy has boosted the macro - sentiment, and the price of lithium carbonate has fluctuated strongly. The price of lithium ore has rebounded significantly, but the production of lithium carbonate remains high due to reduced smelting losses. On the demand side, the output of power cells decreased in June, but the output of energy - storage cells increased significantly. In July, the production of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials and batteries increased. The current price is close to the cost of mica - integrated production, providing strong cost support [11]. Industrial Silicon - There are short - term positive impacts, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly. The start - up rate in the southwest increased last week, but the number of open furnaces in the north decreased, leading to a decline in weekly output. The "anti - involution" theme has boosted expectations [11]. Polysilicon - It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, driven by the production cut of industrial silicon and the "anti - involution" theme. Due to high industry concentration, the price has greater elasticity. The supply - demand situation remains weak, and the prices of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components continue to decline [12]. Group 6: Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - OPEC+ has unexpectedly increased daily production by 548,000 barrels, and with continued production growth in South America in the second half of the year, the downward trend of oil prices is more certain. Although the short - term spot price has not been clearly affected by over - supply, it may be supported in the short term, but refinery profits may be affected after the peak - season profit period, and purchasing willingness may decline [13]. Asphalt - The oil price is running at a low level, and the asphalt price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The shipment volume has improved slightly, and the factory inventory is being depleted slowly. The basis has rebounded, and the social inventory has limited accumulation. As the demand approaches the peak season, the inventory depletion situation needs to be monitored. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following the oil price in the short term [14]. PX - After the premium of crude oil was reversed, the strong trend of PX changed, and the overseas price weakened to $840. The PXN spread reached $250, and the industry profit declined significantly. The recovery of PTA's start - up rate will provide some support for PX, and the weakening trend of PX may be slower than that of its downstream [14]. PTA - The tightness of the spot market has been significantly relieved, the port inventory has increased, and the basis has declined. The downstream start - up rate has continued to decline to 90.2%. There is still room for the downstream start - up rate to decline, and with the downward trend of crude oil prices due to production increases, the PTA price still has some downward space [14]. Ethylene Glycol - The port inventory has been depleted to 540,000 tons. The overall start - up rate has declined, reducing supply pressure. However, the continuous decline of the downstream start - up rate will restrict further inventory depletion. The factory inventory is still being depleted steadily. It is expected to bottom out and follow the polyester sector to operate weakly in the short term [14]. Short - Fiber - The decline in crude oil prices has led to a callback in the short - fiber price. It generally follows the polyester sector to fluctuate strongly. Terminal orders are still average, and the start - up rate continues to decline. The inventory of short - fiber remains high, and inventory depletion needs to wait until the peak - season demand in late July. With the weakening cost support, it will maintain a weak - oscillation pattern following the polyester sector in the medium term [15]. Methanol - There are maintenance activities in the inland area, and the arrival volume has decreased. Downstream olefins have maintenance plans. Before the implementation of maintenance, the spot price has some support. The international start - up rate has increased significantly, and the import expectation has risen again, and the supply - demand situation is expected to worsen. It has rebounded slightly under policy disturbances, but the upside is limited, and short - selling opportunities should be monitored [15]. PP - There are both maintenance and new - capacity releases, slightly relieving the supply pressure. The downstream is in the off - season, and the demand continues to decline. The crude oil price fluctuates weakly, and the profit of oil - based production is fair. The supply - demand imbalance is prominent, and the price is expected to decline further after the new - capacity release [16][17]. LLDPE - The number of device maintenance has increased, but the overall output is higher than the same period last year. The downstream is in the off - season, and the demand continues to weaken. The balance sheet shows an expected inventory accumulation, and the price is under pressure. There is still room for cost - profit compression [18]. Group 7: Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The pricing of the US soybean planting area is settled, and the weather during the key growing period from July to August is crucial. The current hot and humid environment in the US soybean - growing areas is conducive to crop growth, and the probability of extreme drought is low. The market's expectation of a bumper harvest remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the yield per unit in the July USDA supply - demand report. The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the US has supported the US soybean market. The export expectation has improved with positive trade news between China and the US, and the balance - sheet pressure has been further reduced. The CBOT soybean is expected to remain in a stable range [19]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The high - start - up rate of oil mills has maintained a stable supply of soybean meal, and the market sentiment is weak. The average monthly arrival volume of imported soybeans from July to September in China may be around 1.1 million tons, and the supply pressure is difficult to relieve within the 09 - contract period. The short - term stable trend of US soybeans provides some support. The positive news of China - US soybean trade has limited impact on the upward movement of futures prices. In the fourth quarter, the import premium of soybeans and the basis of domestic soybean meal are expected to remain weak. The upward space of soybean meal within the 09 - contract period is limited [20]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the US has extended the clean - fuel production tax credit to 2029, which is beneficial to US soybean oil and Canadian rapeseed oil. In China, the rapeseed oil port inventory is high, and the inventory is slightly decreasing. The soybean oil inventory is accelerating its recovery, and the risk of inventory accumulation is increasing. The domestic soybean and rapeseed oil markets lack independent market - moving factors in the short term and are affected by palm oil. The soybean - palm oil price remains inverted [20][21]. Palm Oil - OPEC+'s planned production increase in August may put pressure on the oil peak season, limiting the boost to international oils. In Malaysia, the production in June decreased by about 4% month - on - month, and the export may increase by 4% - 6% month - on - month. The inventory may shrink to less than 2 million tons. The positive export data in July has boosted market sentiment, but the long - term production increase and the pressure on oil prices are the main limiting factors. In China, the palm oil storage has increased, and the basis is weak. The import profit is in an inverted state, and it is expected to maintain a range - bound and strong trend [21]. Corn - The grassroots price of corn is firm, and the basis is strong. The auction of imported corn had a slightly high premium and good transactions, with limited impact on the production area. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and there are more shutdowns for maintenance during the off - season. Feed enterprises are using more wheat as a substitute for corn, putting pressure on the corn price in Shandong. In July, the import of corn and the substitution of wheat may affect the futures price negatively. After the seasonal substitution of wheat for feed consumption in August - September, the postponed demand will return, and the corn price is likely to rise [22]. Pork - Leading enterprises have a low willingness to increase production and reduce weight for export. The supply in July is expected to decrease due to the impact of piglet diarrhea during the Spring Festival. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the profit expectation for the peak season in August - September is low. The cost of secondary fattening has increased significantly, and the willingness to restock is low. A large - scale concentrated supply of second - fattened pigs is expected in late July and late August, which will limit the upward space of pig prices. The spot price has decreased, and the futures price is expected to decline slightly in the next period [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the "anti-involution" policy is guiding a short-term strength in energy metals, while gold is under pressure due to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar [1]. - The report suggests that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact due to central bank purchases and fiscal concerns [1]. - Industrial metals are experiencing mixed trends, with copper facing supply disruptions and aluminum entering a potential inventory accumulation phase [1]. Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metals sector showed mixed performance this week, with varying price movements across different metals [10]. - The report notes that the overall non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.0%, with energy metals up by 1.0% and industrial metals up by 1.5% [16]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Global copper inventory increased slightly to 518,000 tons, with supply disruptions from MMG and Hudbay Minerals affecting logistics [1]. The copper price has seen fluctuations due to macroeconomic factors and demand-side pressures [1]. - **Aluminum**: The report indicates a potential inventory accumulation cycle, with production recovering in some regions while demand remains subdued [1]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The report notes a continued strength in lithium prices, driven by supply constraints and robust demand from electric vehicle sales [1]. The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose to 64,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.5% increase [26]. - **Metal Silicon**: The report discusses a short-term upward trend in silicon prices due to production cuts and recovery expectations in polysilicon plants [1]. Key Stocks - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Luoyang Molybdenum, all rated as "Buy" [5]. Company Announcements - Zijin Mining announced an asset acquisition of the RG gold mine project, with a valuation of 1.2 billion yuan [34]. - Ganfeng Lithium completed the acquisition of Mali Lithium, enhancing its lithium resource integration strategy [34]. Price and Inventory Changes - The report provides detailed price movements for various metals, indicating that gold prices increased by 4.2% over the week, while copper prices saw a slight decline [21][23]. Market Trends - The report emphasizes the ongoing supply-demand dynamics in the non-ferrous metals market, with particular attention to the impact of macroeconomic indicators on metal prices [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][106]. Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are experiencing fluctuations due to the interplay of the 232 investigation and interest rate cut expectations, with recent price changes showing a mixed trend [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of low inventory levels in supporting copper prices, while also noting the potential impact of the 232 copper import investigation and upcoming interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [5]. - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Western Mining for investment opportunities [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into macroeconomic indicators, including U.S. employment data, which may influence market conditions [9]. - The non-ferrous metals sector's performance is analyzed, with the sector underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [11]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Recent price movements show LME copper up by 0.25%, while SHFE copper is down by 0.24% [25]. - Inventory levels for copper have increased, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [25]. 2.2 Aluminum - LME aluminum prices increased by 0.41%, with inventory levels also rising [35]. - The report notes a decrease in aluminum smelting profits, attributed to rising costs [35]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices have seen a slight increase, while zinc prices have decreased [48]. - Inventory levels for both metals are discussed, highlighting market supply conditions [48]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices have decreased slightly, while nickel prices have shown an upward trend [62]. - The report discusses profitability metrics for nickel producers in both domestic and international markets [62]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices have shown a slight rebound, with specific price changes noted for lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene [74]. - The report indicates that supply-side adjustments are anticipated, which may affect future pricing [74]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices have increased domestically due to export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may create supply constraints [86]. - The report highlights the profitability of domestic cobalt refining operations [86].

Core Viewpoint - The meeting between South Korea's Trade Minister and the U.S. Trade Representative focused on extending the "reciprocal tariff" exemption period, with discussions on reducing or eliminating tariffs on key products like automobiles, steel, and aluminum [1]. Group 1 - South Korea's Trade Minister emphasized the need for significant tariff reductions or eliminations in the final agreement regarding automobiles, steel, and aluminum [1]. - Both parties acknowledged the ongoing goodwill negotiations since the establishment of the new South Korean government and the necessity to further narrow differences [1]. - Discussions were held regarding the extension of the "reciprocal tariff" exemption period, which is set to expire on July 8 [1].