智通财经记者 | 张蕊 智通财经编辑 | 崔宇 史国伟 此外，可再生能源发电量接近全国总发电量的四成，超过同期第三产业用电量与城乡居民生活用电量之 和。风电、光伏新增发电量超过全社会用电量增量。今年上半年，全国可再生能源发电量达17993亿千 瓦时，同比增加15.6%，约占全部发电量的39.7%。 2025年，新能源行业迎来新一轮政策"组合拳"，政策重心逐渐从"扩规模"转向"抓质效"，以夯实能源安 全保障基础、持续深化绿色低碳转型、统筹推进新型电力系统建设为目标，提出了多项提出针对性政策 举措。同时，作为世界清洁能源发展不可或缺的关键力量，我国正在积极推进与国际接轨的碳足迹管理 体系和碳标识认证制度，积极应对绿色贸易壁垒。 细分行业方面，在我国能源转型进入"质效并举"阶段的大方向下，政策对光伏行业的推动力度也显著增 强，要求分布式光伏具备"可观、可测、可调、可控"能力，实现光伏消纳能力的协同优化。2024年，全 国光伏新增装机2.78亿千瓦，同比增长28%，其中集中式光伏1.59亿千瓦，分布式光伏1.18亿千瓦。截 至2024年12月底，全国累计太阳能发电装机容量约8.86亿千瓦，同比增长45.2%；其中集中 ...

Group 1: Mechanical Sector Performance - The mechanical sector is expected to see significant growth in 2025, with a projected increase in revenue and profit compared to 2024 [1] - The Shenwan Mechanical Equipment Index is forecasted to rise by 36.11% in 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 19.74 percentage points and the Shenzhen Component Index by 8.78 percentage points [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the mechanical industry reported operating revenue of 15,135.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1,080.76 billion yuan, up 16.80% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Export Resilience in Equipment Manufacturing - The equipment manufacturing industry has maintained export resilience through diversified market strategies, technological innovation, and policy support [2] - From January to October 2025, the export delivery value for general equipment, specialized equipment, and transportation equipment reached 6,173.20 billion yuan, 5,319.30 billion yuan, and 4,124 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.5%, 9.3%, and 24.20% [2] - Engineering machinery and motorcycles are highlighted as strong sectors for China's manufacturing industry, expected to enhance brand effects and transition from "manufacturing going abroad" to "branding going abroad" [2] Group 3: Systemic Ecological Transformation - The emergence of new manufacturing scenarios signifies a profound shift from single technology upgrades to systemic ecological restructuring, driven by technological revolutions, policy initiatives, and market demands [3] - These new scenarios are enhancing production efficiency, product quality, and innovation capabilities, thereby promoting industrial transformation and high-quality economic development [3] - Key areas for investment include humanoid robots, smart logistics, non-power nuclear technology applications, low-altitude economy, deep-sea technology, ice and snow economy, and high-end measurement and testing [3] Group 4: High-Quality Development in Key Industries - The 2025 Central Financial Committee meeting emphasized "anti-involution" as a crucial task for building a unified national market, focusing on addressing low-price disorderly competition and phasing out outdated capacity [4] - The anti-involution policy aims to reshape industry ecology through market-oriented measures, restoring pricing power and promoting sustainable long-term growth [4] - The lithium battery, photovoltaic, and semiconductor equipment industries are expected to transition from extensive growth to high-quality development, enhancing overall competitiveness and sustainability [4]

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 12 月 16 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2605 合约涨 1.4%至 101060 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价上涨 650 元/吨至 95150 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价上涨 650 元/吨至 92650 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗 粒）上涨 500 元/吨至 83530 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 210 吨至 15260 吨。 2. 供应端，周度产量环比增加 59 吨至 21998 吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比增加 260 吨至 13744 吨，锂云母 产量环比减少 200 吨至 2876 吨，盐湖提锂环比减少 15 吨至 3075 吨，回收料提锂环比增加 14 吨至 2303 吨；12 月碳酸锂产量预计环比增加 3%至 98210 吨。需求端，周度三元材料产量环比减少 384 吨至 18313 吨，库存环比减少 318 吨至 18524 吨；周度磷酸铁锂产量环比减少 1336 吨至 94144 吨， 库存环比减少 23 吨至 103658 吨；1 ...

Overall Situation - In November 2025, China's passenger car terminal sales reached 2.005 million units, a month-on-month decrease of 4.3% [1] - New energy passenger car sales totaled 1.223 million units, showing a month-on-month increase of 2.3% [1] - Breakdown of new energy vehicle sales: pure electric vehicles sold 774,000 units (up 0.6%), plug-in hybrid vehicles sold 335,000 units (up 3.4%), and range-extended vehicles sold 114,000 units (up 11.7%) [1] - Notably, the monthly penetration rate of new energy vehicles surpassed 60% for the first time [1] Market Overview - Since mid to late October, orders have started to decline, with November showing a further slight weakening in market conditions after excluding short-term purchase orders from late October [3] - The decline is attributed to the exhaustion of national subsidy quotas and consumers entering a "wait-and-see" mode [3] - The used car replacement subsidy has been strong, leading to an unexpected growth in the car market in 2025 [3] - However, in 2026, the reduction of new energy vehicle purchase tax by 5% will result in over 100 billion yuan in tax benefits being lost, creating significant pressure on market growth [3] - To ensure a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan, it is expected that the end of 2025 will need to stabilize without overextending next year's growth potential [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the company, Zhongchuang Xinhang, is rated as "buy" by Shenwan Hongyuan due to the upward trend in industry demand and expected profitability after the release of energy storage products [1] - The company has undergone multiple strategic upgrades, transitioning from an industry participant to a global competitor, supported by a stable management team and a mixed ownership structure [1] - The company reported a revenue of 16.4 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 31.7%, with a net profit of 470 million yuan and a net profit margin of 2.8% [1] Group 2 - The demand for dynamic storage is experiencing a dual explosion, with the Chinese new energy vehicle sales reaching 11.2 million units in the first three quarters of 2025, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles rising to 46% [2] - The global energy storage battery shipment is expected to increase from 530 GWh in 2025 to 1,343 GWh by 2028, indicating a sustained high demand in the storage market [2] - The company is enhancing its core barriers and optimizing its customer structure, reducing reliance on the top five customers from 71% in 2023 to 55% in 2024, while expanding its global production network [3] Group 3 - The company is focusing on high-end products and technological innovation, with a leading position in cutting-edge technologies such as 430Wh/kg solid-state batteries [3] - The company is experiencing a steady increase in market share as the lithium battery industry enters a supply-demand improvement cycle, opening new opportunities for profitability [2] - The company is establishing a global capacity network with production bases in Portugal and Thailand, enhancing its global competitiveness [3]

Core Insights - The report highlights significant growth in the production of lithium battery materials, particularly in November 2025, with domestic battery production reaching 176.3 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 49.66% and a month-on-month increase of 3.34% [1][2] - The production of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathode materials also saw a notable increase, with a total output of 26.89 million tons in November 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.43% and a month-on-month growth of 0.75% [1][2] Production - In the first eleven months of 2025, domestic battery and LFP cathode material production significantly exceeded the levels seen in the same period of 2024 [1][2] - The capacity utilization rate for LFP cathode materials was reported at 62.53% in November 2025 [1][2] Pricing - The prices of key raw materials for lithium batteries have stabilized, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate priced at 94,000 yuan per ton as of December 12, 2025, reflecting a weekly decrease of 3.40% [3] - The price of LFP (power type) remained stable at 39,100 yuan per ton, while lithium hexafluorophosphate was also stable at 180,000 yuan per ton [3] - Prices for battery cells, including LFP energy storage cells, have maintained stability, with specific prices reported for various capacities [3] Demand - In November 2025, the monthly shipment volume of LFP batteries reached 75.3 GWh, marking a year-on-year increase of 43.62% and a month-on-month increase of 11.56%, achieving a new high for the year [4] - The monthly shipment volume of ternary power batteries was 18.2 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 33.82% and a month-on-month increase of 10.30% [4] - The new bidding capacity for domestic energy storage projects in the first ten months of 2025 was higher than in the same period of 2024, although November's figures fell below the previous year's levels [4] - Exports of Chinese power batteries in November 2025 reached 21.2 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 69.60% and a month-on-month increase of 9.28% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are leading in the collaborative layout of power batteries and energy storage, as well as those with strong overseas expansion [5] - Companies to watch include CATL (300750.SZ), EVE Energy (300014.SZ), Xinwangda (300207.SZ), Hunan Youneng (301358.SZ), Rongbai Technology (688005.SH), Tianci Materials (002709.SZ), and Dofluorid (002407.SZ) [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the breakthrough in battery technology through the development of a new generation binder, J ONE, by Shenzhen Yanyi New Materials Co., Ltd., which significantly enhances the performance of silicon-carbon anodes in lithium-ion batteries, addressing the challenges of cycle life and volume expansion [1][5][7]. Group 1: Technical Challenges of Silicon Anode Binders - The silicon-based anode binder market is currently dominated by traditional systems, with initial applications using modified traditional binders like "CMC+SBR" or "PAA-based binders" [3]. - Existing binders are adequate for low silicon content materials but reveal limitations when applied to high silicon content (>50%) or pure silicon anodes, where they fail to effectively suppress expansion and enhance cycle life [4]. Group 2: Breakthroughs Achieved by Yanyi's J ONE Binder - J ONE binder features a unique micro-phase separation structure that reduces solvent swelling to below 50%, maintaining excellent mechanical properties [5]. - It effectively buffers volume changes in pure silicon anodes through covalent and hydrogen bonding, preventing active material loss [5]. - The tensile strength of J ONE exceeds that of SBR by over five times, with a breaking elongation rate above 200%, creating a robust interface protection layer [5]. - In high voltage systems (4.5V), J ONE maintains stable interfacial impedance, enabling over 1,000 cycles with a capacity retention rate above 80% [5]. Group 3: Future Prospects and Innovations - Yanyi is set to launch the J ONE-U8 binder, which integrates multiple materials and engineering technologies, designed for high silicon-carbon content applications, offering high strength, flexibility, and conductivity [6]. - The introduction of J ONE binder marks a revolutionary step towards the full utilization of pure silicon-carbon anodes, propelling the lithium battery industry to new heights [7].

截至11月底，320个共建成渝地区双城经济圈重点项目完成投资4810亿元，年度投资完成率 109.2%，提前完成全年目标任务。12月15日，记者从四川省发展和改革委员会获悉，今年以来，共建 成渝地区双城经济圈重点项目进度条不断刷新。 推动成渝地区双城经济圈建设联合办公室相关负责人表示，将进一步加大工作力度，推动项目建设 取得更多实物工程量；提前谋划编制2026年共建成渝地区双城经济圈重点项目名单；积极争取更多项目 纳入国家编制的成渝地区双城经济圈建设"十五五"实施方案。（记者 史晓露） 今年以来，推动成渝地区双城经济圈建设联合办公室会同相关部门和市县区政府，以共建成渝地区 双城经济圈重点项目为重要抓手，进一步优化完善项目协同推进机制，强化要素保障和协调服务，推进 项目加快建设，为成渝地区双城经济圈建设走深走实提供了有力支撑。 基础设施网络持续织密，引大济岷等标志性工程开工建设，成渝中线、成达万高铁等川渝间大通道 加快建设，川渝千亿立方米天然气基地年产气量突破700亿立方米。科技创新和产业创新深度融合，成 都高新区京东方第8.6代AMOLED生产线、宜宾锂电产业项目即将投产，川渝高竹新区科技创新基地建 成投用。 ...

浪潮涌动，又一锂电企业计划赴港二次上市。 12月12日盘后，鹏辉能源（300438.SZ）公告，筹划发行H股并在香港联交所上市，以深化全球化战略布局，提升公司在国际市场的综合竞争 实力，同时打造公司国际化资本运作平台，增强境外融资能力。 鹏辉能源于2015年在深圳证券交易所创业板上市，截至目前累计募资70.32亿元，其中首发时募资3.12亿元，股权再融资32.98亿元，间接融资 34.22亿元。 尽管上市以来已通过多渠道募集资金，但面对大规模的扩产计划和全球化布局，公司当前资金压力不小。 其三季报显示，截至2025年9月末，公司货币资金17.03亿元，同期短期借款高达14.60亿元，应付账款50.71亿元，应付票据22.15亿元，资金链 处于紧平衡状态。 业绩修复期 从上市公司业绩来看，鹏辉能源也正处于业绩修复的关键期。 2024年，正值锂电行业价格激烈博弈的关键期，鹏辉能源上市以来首次亏损，全年归母净利润为-2.52亿元，到2025年上半年仍亏损8822.67万 元。不过，三季报显示，报告期内公司实现营业收入75.81亿元，同比增长34.23%；归母净利润实现扭亏1.15亿元，同比增长89.33%。三季度 ...

Overall Viewpoint - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to adhere to "dual carbon" goals by 2026, promoting a comprehensive green transition and advancing energy-saving and carbon-reduction transformations in key industries [4] - The conference also highlights the importance of developing a national carbon emissions trading market and fostering new growth points such as hydrogen energy and green fuels, along with the establishment of zero-carbon parks and factories [4] - The investment opportunities in the green energy sector, including hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, green electricity, and energy storage, are expected to remain strong in 2026 [4] Group 1: Domestic Energy Storage - In November, domestic energy storage installations saw significant growth, with a total new installed capacity of 4.51 GW/13.03 GWh, representing a month-on-month increase of 57.14% (power) and 74.66% (capacity), and a year-on-year increase of 45.95% (power) and 49.6% (capacity) [5] - The independent energy storage bidding in 2026 is anticipated to maintain a favorable level, supported by the development of the industry and the establishment of a complete revenue model through energy markets [5] - The rapid increase in compressed air energy storage is noted in the recent bidding results [5] Group 2: Hydrogen, Ammonia, and Wind Power - The central economic meeting indicates a focus on cultivating hydrogen energy and green fuels as new growth points, with plans to build zero-carbon parks and factories [6] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to benefit from both China's future industries and the EU carbon tariff, making hydrogen and ammonia promising directions for investment [6] Group 3: Lithium Batteries - The retail sales of new energy vehicles in the first week of December reached 185,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 17% and a month-on-month decrease of 10%, indicating high policy sensitivity among consumers [7] - The central economic work conference's deployment to optimize "two new" policy implementations suggests the continuation of national subsidy policies to stimulate automotive consumption [7] - The lithium battery supply chain is expected to see a trend of improvement, with companies launching large capacity storage battery solutions aimed at cost reduction [7]