——春节前下游补库节奏渐起 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年01月05日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周碳酸锂市场呈现宽幅震荡偏强态势。展望未来，碳酸锂期货价格的驱动逻辑将聚焦以下因素：国内外锂 资源释放进度、国内锂矿库存紧张程度、下游需求的可持续性，上述因素将共同主导后续市场价格走势。 锂矿端，国内可售锂精矿库存紧张程度有所缓解，2026年1月份锂矿进口量持续放量，一定程度上可以缓解 市场锂矿紧张程度。供给方面，"枧下窝复产进度"经过持续不断的炒作后，市场对此消息的反应已经减 弱，建议直接关注公司公告和工厂实际开工情况。需求端表现强劲，市场整体库存持续去化，下游库存降幅 显著。同时，下游补库节奏亦不容忽视，预计后续春节前补库需求逐步释放，现货基差有望逐步走强。 综合基本面等因素分析，中长期看，行业基本面支撑下的长期价值并未改变，碳酸锂仍具备逢低布多的机 会。操作层面，建议投资者聚焦回调后的结构性做多机会，依托基本面锚定合理估值区间 ...

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 1月5日，盛新锂能在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司锂产品参考市场行情进行定 价。公司也在密切关注行业发展情况以及各类市场信息。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Ganfeng Lithium (002460) remains optimistic about the future demand for lithium driven by the electrification trend and growth in the energy storage market [1] - The price trend of lithium carbonate will depend on the interplay between actual demand growth and supply increase [1] - Stable demand growth is expected to provide long-term support for lithium prices [1]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 129,980.00 | +8400.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -126,463.00 | +11322.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 515,292.00 | +25098.00↑ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -2,400.00 | -1180.00↓ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 20,281.00 | 0.00 | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 119,500.00 | +1000.00↑ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 117,000.00 | +1500.00↑ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） | -10,480.00 | -7400.00↓ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平均价（日，美元/吨） | 1,470.00 | +10.00↑ 磷锂铝石平均价（日 ...

Market Overview - A-shares continued to experience fluctuations with major indices showing recovery in volume, supported by a significant increase in weekly financing, which rose substantially compared to the previous period[2] - Stock ETFs saw a net inflow of 363.41 billion yuan, indicating positive market sentiment following the Central Economic Work Conference held in December[2] - By December 31, the major broad-based indices showed a cautious outlook, with only the CSI 500 maintaining a bullish signal, while other indices shifted to a more cautious stance[2] Fixed Income Insights - In the period from December 29 to December 31, 2025, a total of 76 credit bonds were issued, amounting to 769.14 billion yuan, reflecting an 82.02% decrease from the previous week[33] - The secondary market for publicly listed REITs experienced a decline, with returns ranking from high to low as follows: pure bonds > A-shares > convertible bonds > REITs > US stocks > crude oil > gold[31] Industry Highlights - Lithium prices reached approximately 112,000 yuan per ton, with recommendations to focus on companies with cost advantages and resource expansion potential, such as Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium[7] - The copper smelting capacity in China may face restrictions due to regulatory measures, while the demand for copper remains under pressure despite a tight supply outlook for 2026[7] Consumer and Economic Policies - The first batch of "old-for-new" subsidy funds for 2026 is expected to be lower than the previous year, with an estimated total scale of 250 billion yuan, potentially boosting retail sales growth by 1.2 percentage points[13] - The PMI returned to the expansion zone in December, supported by effective incremental policies and a favorable export environment, indicating a positive economic outlook for the end of the year[15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand relationship of lithium carbonate is continuously improving, but industrial games are intensifying, and the market has risen too rapidly [1] - In the short - term (within 1 month), due to the continuous improvement of supply - demand and the stimulation of rising sentiment, the price center will continue to rise, and it is difficult to find short - selling opportunities. In the medium - term (within 3 months), as the price continues to rise and some mica mines may resume production at the end of the first quarter, appropriate short - selling at high prices can be considered [85] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review and Logic Sorting - **Price Trends**: In August 2025, lithium carbonate futures prices bottomed out and rebounded with a daily limit of 8%, reaching 81,000 yuan/ton. In September, prices fluctuated weakly, and in October, they continued to rise. In November, prices exceeded 100,000 yuan/ton, and in December, they exceeded 110,000 yuan/ton in the first and middle of the month, then fluctuated sharply [7] - **Key Influencing Factors**: Supply - side factors include the shutdown of Ningde Times' Jianxiawo lithium mine, which is expected to affect the monthly supply of about 7,000 - 8,000 tons, and the "Sword Action" in Jiangxi Province. Demand - side factors include strong downstream demand in the power battery and energy storage markets. Exchange regulatory measures include adjustments to trading fees, price limits, and trading margins [7] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply - Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium ore has rebounded, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has fluctuated. The domestic lithium ore supply - demand balance shows a tight balance in some months. The shutdown of key mines and policy restrictions have affected supply, and the growth of new supply is limited [9][12] - **Supply - Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly and monthly production and capacity of lithium carbonate have shown certain trends. The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has also fluctuated, with shortages in some months [15][24] - **Supply - Lithium Hydroxide**: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide have changed. The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide also shows different situations in different months [27][29] - **Lithium Compound Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of various lithium compounds, such as lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, have been affected by factors such as raw material prices and processing costs [32] - **Inventory**: The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including warehouse receipts, monthly and weekly inventory, has shown different trends [39] - **Demand - Lithium Battery**: The price, production, and sales of lithium batteries have changed. The demand for energy storage batteries is strong, while the growth of power batteries has slowed down [45] - **Demand - Ternary Precursor**: The price, cost, and production of ternary precursors have changed, and the supply - demand balance has also fluctuated [51][54] - **Demand - Ternary Material**: The price, cost, and production of ternary materials have changed, and the supply - demand balance has also shown different situations [57] - **Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium**: The price, cost, and production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium have changed, and the supply - demand balance has also fluctuated [61][64] - **Demand - New Energy Vehicle**: The production, sales, and penetration rate of new energy vehicles have changed, and the inventory of dealers has also been monitored [69] 3.3 Futures Market Performance - The price, trading volume, and moving averages of the LC futures main contract have shown certain trends [76] 3.4 Summary and Operation Suggestions - **Supply - Side**: There is a tight balance with continuous disturbances, including mine shutdowns, policy restrictions, and limited new supply [81] - **Demand - Side**: There is a structural differentiation, with strong energy storage demand and a slowdown in power demand [82] - **Cost - Side**: There is strong rigid support, including rising ore prices and a steep cost curve [84] - **Operation Strategy**: In the short - term, it is difficult to find short - selling opportunities, while in the medium - term, short - selling at high prices can be considered when mines resume production [85] - **Key Monitoring Indicators**: The resumption progress of Ningde Times' Jianxiawo project and energy storage order situation [86]

天眼查App显示，近日，珠海盛泽鑫辰科技有限公司成立，法定代表人为王琪，注册资本5000万人民 币，经营范围含供应链管理服务、企业总部管理、化工产品销售、金属矿石销售、有色金属合金销售、 企业管理咨询等。股东信息显示，该公司由盛新锂能（002240）全资持股。 ...

Group 1: A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market opened higher on January 5, with all three major indices rising collectively, and the Shanghai Composite Index returning to the 4000-point mark for the first time in 34 trading days [1] - Insurance and precious metals sectors led the gains, with New China Life Insurance (601336) rising nearly 8% to reach a historical high, while China Ping An, China Pacific Insurance (601601), China Life Insurance (601628), and China Reinsurance (601319) also saw significant increases [1] Group 2: Brain-Computer Interface Sector - The brain-computer interface concept experienced a surge, with several companies hitting the daily limit up, including Meihua Medical (301363) and Aipeng Medical (300753), both reaching the 20% limit up, alongside other companies like Botao Bio and Aerospace Changfeng (600855) [1] - The surge was influenced by Elon Musk's announcement regarding Neuralink's plans to significantly increase brain device production by 2026 and innovate in implantation methods [1] Group 3: Lithium Mining and Storage Chip Sector - The lithium mining sector saw a strong rally, particularly in the salt lake lithium extraction direction, with Salt Lake Co. (000792) hitting the daily limit up and reaching a three-and-a-half-year high, while Cangge Mining (000408) rose nearly 6% to set a new historical high [2] - Storage chip concepts also strengthened, with Jiangbolong (301308) rising over 14% and Shanghai Xinyang (300236) increasing over 12%, driven by significant investments in AI infrastructure by major North American cloud service providers [2] Group 4: Storage Chip Market Forecast - Guojin Securities predicts a continued supply-demand imbalance in the global storage chip market for 2026, with DRAM supply expected to grow by 15% to 20% and demand by 20% to 25%, while NAND supply is projected to increase by 13% to 18% and demand by 18% to 23% [3] - The consumption of DRAM and NAND flash in the server sector is expected to surge by 40% to 50% year-on-year, with even faster growth in AI server applications [3] - Price forecasts for storage contracts indicate a potential increase of 30% to 40% in Q1 2026, with DDR5 RDIMM memory prices expected to rise over 40% and NAND flash prices anticipated to see double-digit percentage increases [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. military's surprise operation in Venezuela has heightened global geopolitical tensions, impacting various sectors in the A-share market, particularly those related to defense, oil, lithium resources, gold, and supply chain security [1][3]. Group 1: Military Operation Details - The U.S. military operation, named "Absolute Resolve," involved over 150 aircraft and was executed within three hours, successfully capturing President Maduro and his wife [3]. - The operation was meticulously planned over several months, with significant military assets deployed, including F-22 and F-35 fighter jets, and B-1 bombers [3]. Group 2: Impact on A-share Market - The conflict is expected to cause significant movements in five key sectors: defense and military, oil services and transportation, lithium resources, gold, and supply chain security [4]. - Historical trends indicate that military conflicts typically lead to increased orders and positive sentiment in the defense sector, with China's military budget growing at around 7% annually [4]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - **Defense and Military**: Likely to benefit from increased orders due to heightened geopolitical tensions [4]. - **Oil Services and Transportation**: Venezuela's oil infrastructure may be damaged, leading to higher global oil prices and increased demand for oil services and transportation [4]. - **Lithium Resources**: The conflict may halt lithium mining operations in Venezuela, exacerbating supply shortages as global demand for electric vehicles rises [4]. - **Gold**: Traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, gold prices are expected to rise amid increased global uncertainty [4]. - **Supply Chain Security**: Disruptions in Venezuela's mining operations could accelerate domestic production in China for critical materials [4]. Group 4: Market Movements and Stock Performance - Leading stocks in relevant sectors have already shown signs of movement, with increased trading volumes and price changes noted prior to the conflict [5]. - Key players include military contractors like AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation and lithium producers such as Ganfeng Lithium, which have demonstrated strong business fundamentals [5].

A-Share Market - As of December 30, 2025, over 2,800 A-share listed companies have received broker research, indicating that more than half of the market's listed companies have attracted broker attention. The most focused sectors include machinery, electronics, and pharmaceuticals, with over 290 companies in each sector receiving broker research [2] - On December 29, Ganfeng Lithium announced it received a notice from the Yichun Public Security Bureau regarding prosecution for suspected insider trading, with the case now transferred to the procuratorate for review and prosecution. The company had previously received an administrative penalty from the Jiangxi Securities Regulatory Bureau in July 2024 and has complied with disclosure obligations and paid fines [2] - Minmetals Development announced on December 29 that it received a notice from its actual controller, China Minmetals, regarding a planned major asset restructuring. The company intends to acquire equity stakes in Minmetals Mining and Luzhong Mining from its controlling shareholder through asset swaps, share issuance, and cash payments, while also raising matching funds [2] - On December 29, Huali Co., a leader in decorative composite materials, disclosed the termination of its intention to acquire a 51% stake in Beijing Zhongke Huilian Technology Co., due to failure to reach consensus on core transaction terms [3] - On December 22, Beijing Haizhi Technology Group submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for the second time, having previously let its application expire in June 2025. The company reported net losses of 176 million, 266 million, 93.73 million, and 128 million yuan for the years 2022, 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025, respectively, primarily due to high upfront investments in upgrading products and technology [3] - On December 29, SMIC announced plans to issue 547 million shares to acquire a 49% stake in SMIC North from five shareholders, with a transaction price of 40.601 billion yuan [3] - As of December 28, 19 A-share companies have successfully listed on the Hong Kong capital market this year, a significant increase of 533% compared to 3 companies in 2024, accounting for over 50% of the total fundraising for new shares in Hong Kong [4] Financial Management - On January 5, 2026, new local government special bonds and replacement bonds will be issued, with Shandong Province planning to issue its first batch of 24.609 billion yuan in bonds, including 24.609 billion yuan for replacing existing hidden debts [5] - As of September 2025, China's banking sector had foreign financial assets of 1.8114 trillion USD and foreign liabilities of 1.4399 trillion USD, resulting in a net foreign asset of 371.6 billion USD, with net liabilities in RMB of 224.9 billion USD and net assets in foreign currency of 596.5 billion USD [5] - As of the end of November, there were 165 public fund management institutions in China, with a total net asset value of public funds amounting to 37.02 trillion yuan, a slight increase of approximately 60 billion yuan from the end of October [5] - As of December 28, the issuance of FOF (fund of funds) products surged to 83.828 billion units, marking a historical high, with both the number and scale of products reaching new records as more investors shift their funds into these products [5]