Macro Strategy - The macroeconomic indicators show a marginal recovery in infrastructure work volume since September, with expectations for continued monetary policy support to stabilize the funding environment [1][21] - Strong economic data from the US has tempered interest rate cut expectations, with analysts raising growth forecasts for the US economy for Q3 2025 to Q2 2026 [1][22] Fixed Income - The secondary market for capital bonds saw a weekly transaction volume of approximately 229.9 billion yuan, an increase of 52.1 billion yuan compared to the previous week [2] - The issuance of green bonds totaled 30.974 billion yuan this week, a decrease of 0.414 billion yuan from the previous week [3] Banking Sector - The bond investment yield for 42 listed banks in the first half of 2025 was approximately 1.42 trillion yuan, a slight increase of 3.82% from the same period in 2024 [4][6] - Different types of banks show varied performance, with state-owned banks maintaining relatively stable profitability due to their larger bond portfolios [6] Gas Industry - The gas industry is expected to benefit from cost optimization and a more rational pricing mechanism, with a focus on companies with US gas sources potentially mitigating tariff impacts [7] - Recommended companies include Xin'ao Energy, China Gas, and Kunlun Energy, with dividend yields ranging from 4.0% to 6.4% [7] Retail Industry - The planned spin-off of TOP TOY from Miniso is anticipated to help realize value re-evaluation for the parent company, with TOP TOY's valuation reaching 10 billion HKD [8] Automotive Industry - The automotive sector is witnessing a 12.9% week-on-week increase in passenger car sales, with significant developments from companies like Chery and Li Auto [9][10] - The industry is at a crossroads, transitioning from electric vehicle benefits to a focus on smart vehicle innovations [10] Power Equipment Industry - The demand for energy storage is expected to grow by 30-40% in the coming years, driven by new policies and market needs [11] - The lithium battery sector is also projected to see increased production, with prices expected to rise further [11] Non-Bank Financial Sector - The insurance sector is benefiting from economic recovery and rising interest rates, with a significant increase in sales of savings products [13] - Securities firms are expected to see growth from market recovery and favorable policy environments [13] Electronic Industry - The PCB industry is undergoing significant upgrades driven by AI and high-speed communication needs, with a projected market value of 94.7 billion USD by 2029 [14][15] - Key players are ramping up high-end production capabilities to meet increasing demand [15] Construction Materials Industry - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from government policies aimed at stabilizing growth, with recommendations for companies like Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement [12] Precious Metals - Precious metals are expected to perform well due to favorable macroeconomic narratives, with gold prices showing a significant increase [18]

Core Insights - The launch of the "Star People Delicious Moments Series" by Pop Mart has generated significant consumer interest, with a live stream viewership of 270.5 million on Tmall and 560,000 on the box machine mini-program before the sale [2][10] - The inventory for the new series was notably lower compared to previous releases, leading to a rapid sell-out of products within minutes of launch [2][10] - The secondary market shows that the new series has a higher premium compared to the previously released mini version of LABUBU, indicating strong demand and potential for future sales [10][11] Sales Performance - The "Star People" series saw over 360,000 items added to shopping carts, but only 20,000 plush cookie pendants were available for sale, leading to a quick sell-out [2][5] - The mini version of LABUBU had a total sale of over 300,000 items during its launch, highlighting the competitive nature of Pop Mart's product releases [2][10] Market Trends - The secondary market prices for the "Star People" series have surged, with hidden items selling for up to 16 times their original price, indicating a strong collector interest [10] - The average transaction price for the "Star People" plush pendants is higher than that of the competing "Crybaby" series, suggesting that "Star People" may be positioned as the next leading IP for Pop Mart [11] Competitive Landscape - The competition between "Crybaby" and "Star People" is intensifying, with "Star People" currently outperforming "Crybaby" in terms of average transaction prices on secondary platforms [11] - The market is closely watching which IP will emerge as the next major hit for Pop Mart, especially following the decline in popularity of LABUBU [11]

潮玩资本热潮持续，又一家公司要赴港上市。 近日，名创优品集团旗下潮玩品牌TOP TOY International Group Limited（下称 "TOP TOY"）正式向港 交所递交上市申请，摩根大通、瑞银集团及中信证券共同担任联席保荐人。 名创优品在同日公告中确认了此次分拆上市建议，并指出，TOP TOY分拆完成后仍将是名创优品的附 属公司。 来源：市场资讯 今年3月，市场首次传出TOP TOY计划上市的消息，到如今正式递交招股书仅过去三个多月。名创优品 创始人叶国富曾在2022年7月就公开表示过，希望TOP TOY能在3年内单独上市。 今年是潮玩消费大年，泡泡玛特市值飙升、卡游也已递交招股书。业内人士认为，若TOP TOY成功上 市，有机会以潮玩企业身份获得更高估值溢价。 自有IP影响力不足 TOP TOY成立于2020年12月，按照弗若斯特沙利文的数据，其是中国规模最大、增速最快的潮玩合集 品牌，2024年公司GMV为24亿元。 谈到潮玩，大多数消费者首先想到的是泡泡玛特。 两者的区别在于，TOP TOY像是一个集市，售卖来自四面八方的IP玩具手办；泡泡玛特则更有品牌属 性，有能力自己孵化出Mol ...

Core Viewpoint - TOP TOY International Group Limited, a subsidiary of Miniso Group, has officially submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to capitalize on the booming collectible toy market and potentially achieve a higher valuation upon successful listing [1][12]. Company Overview - TOP TOY was established in December 2020 and is recognized as the largest and fastest-growing collectible toy brand in China, with a projected GMV of 2.4 billion RMB for 2024 [1][4]. - The company has experienced significant revenue growth, with revenue increasing from 679 million RMB to 1.909 billion RMB over the past three years, and achieving 1.36 billion RMB in revenue in the first half of this year [4]. Revenue Sources - TOP TOY's revenue is heavily reliant on external IPs, with approximately 47% of its revenue in 2024 expected to come from popular licensed IPs such as Sanrio and Disney, generating around 889 million RMB [4]. - The company holds 17 proprietary IPs and 43 licensed IPs, but its own IPs contributed only 680,000 RMB to revenue last year, indicating a weak market influence [4]. Market Position and Strategy - As of June 30, 2023, TOP TOY operates 293 stores, supported by Miniso's extensive distribution network, which includes over 4,300 stores in mainland China [8][10]. - Miniso is not only the controlling shareholder of TOP TOY, holding 86.9% of its shares, but also its largest customer, contributing nearly 45.5% of TOP TOY's total revenue in the first half of this year [8][9]. Future Plans - The company plans to open 100 new stores domestically this year, aiming for a total of 380 to 400 stores by year-end, and has set a goal to expand internationally by opening 1,000 stores in 100 countries over the next five years [12]. - TOP TOY has prepared a reserve fund of 10 billion RMB to support its ongoing domestic and international expansion efforts [12].

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent launch of Pop Mart's "Star People Delicious Moments Series," which generated significant consumer interest and a buying frenzy, with products selling out within minutes [2][8] - The inventory for the new series was notably lower compared to previous releases, leading to a high demand and rapid sell-out [2][8] - The resale market for the new series shows a higher premium compared to previous products, indicating strong market interest and potential for future growth [8] Group 1: Product Launch and Sales Performance - Pop Mart's "Star People Delicious Moments Series" was launched on September 29, with live streaming attracting 270.5 million viewers [2] - The initial stock for the series was limited, with only 20,000 units of the plush cookie pendant available, despite over 360,000 consumers adding it to their carts [5][8] - The products sold out within minutes, highlighting the strong demand and consumer anticipation [2][8] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Pricing - The resale prices for the hidden "Cookie Bear" variant reached up to 929 yuan, a 16-fold increase from the original price of 59 yuan, indicating a strong premium in the secondary market [8] - The average transaction price for the "Star People" blind box was 167 yuan, compared to 135 yuan for the competing "Crybaby" series, suggesting that "Star People" is commanding a higher market value despite a lower original price [9] - The article notes that the "Star People" series has outperformed the previous "Labubu" series in terms of resale value, with higher premiums observed [8][9] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competition between "Star People" and "Crybaby" is intensifying, with both series showing strong sales performance on secondary platforms [9] - The article highlights the need for Pop Mart to maintain the momentum of "Star People" to establish it as the next leading IP following the decline of "Labubu" [9] - The market is closely watching which new character will emerge as the next top seller for Pop Mart, as the company seeks to innovate and capture consumer interest [9]

Core Viewpoint - TOP TOY International Group Limited, a subsidiary of Miniso Group, has officially submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to capitalize on the booming collectible toy market [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - TOP TOY was established in December 2020 and is recognized as the largest and fastest-growing collectible toy brand in China, with a projected GMV of 2.4 billion RMB for 2024 [2]. - The company has experienced significant revenue growth, with revenue increasing from 679 million RMB to 1.909 billion RMB over the past three years, and achieving 1.36 billion RMB in revenue with a net profit of approximately 180 million RMB in the first half of this year, resulting in a net profit margin of about 13.2% [3]. Group 2: IP and Revenue Dependency - TOP TOY currently holds 17 proprietary IPs, 43 licensed IPs, and over 600 third-party IPs, but its revenue heavily relies on external IPs, with licensed IPs contributing approximately 889 million RMB, accounting for about 47% of total revenue in 2024 [4][5]. - The company's proprietary IPs generated only 6.8 million RMB in revenue last year, representing less than 1% of total revenue, indicating a weak market influence compared to competitors like Pop Mart, which generated 11.121 billion RMB from its proprietary IPs, constituting 85% of its total revenue [5]. Group 3: Sales Channels and Partnerships - Miniso Group is the largest customer of TOP TOY, accounting for 48.3% and 45.5% of the company's total revenue in the last year and the first half of this year, respectively, with sales to Miniso amounting to 923 million RMB and 619 million RMB [8]. - The company plans to leverage its partnership with Yonghui Supermarket, which has become Miniso's largest shareholder, to enhance its sales channels, particularly for its own products like building blocks and blind boxes [10]. Group 4: Expansion Plans - TOP TOY aims to open 100 new stores in China this year, targeting a total of 380 to 400 stores by year-end, and plans to expand internationally by covering 100 countries and opening 1,000 stores over the next five years [10]. - The company has prepared a reserve fund of 10 billion RMB to support its ongoing domestic and international expansion efforts [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent launch of the "Star People Delicious Moments Series" by Pop Mart, highlighting the significant consumer interest and the rapid sell-out of products, indicating strong market demand and the potential for high resale value [3][8]. Group 1: Product Launch and Sales Performance - Pop Mart's "Star People Delicious Moments Series" was launched on September 29, generating a massive online viewership with 270.5 million views on its Tmall flagship store and 560,000 viewers on its live stream [3][5]. - The initial stock for the new series was significantly lower than previous releases, with only over 20,000 units of the plush cookie pendant available, leading to a sell-out within minutes [3][5]. - The sales performance of the new series surpassed that of the previously popular mini LABUBU series, which had sold over 300,000 units on its launch night [3][8]. Group 2: Resale Market and Pricing Dynamics - The resale market for the "Star People" series shows a remarkable premium, with the hidden variant "Little Bear Cookie" reaching a peak transaction price of 929 yuan, a 16-fold increase from its original price of 59 yuan [8]. - The average transaction price for individual blind boxes from the "Star People" series is 167 yuan, compared to 135 yuan for the "Crybaby" series, indicating a higher market value for the new series despite its lower original price [9][10]. - The overall premium for the "Star People" series is higher than that of the mini LABUBU series, which had a maximum premium of 12.5 times its original price [8][10]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competition between Pop Mart's IPs, particularly between "Star People" and "Crybaby," is intensifying, with "Star People" showing stronger sales performance in the recent market [9][10]. - The article notes that while "Crybaby" was previously favored as the next big hit, the emerging popularity of "Star People" suggests a shift in consumer preference [9][10]. - The ongoing success of "Star People" is crucial for Pop Mart as it seeks to establish a new leading IP following the waning popularity of LABUBU [10].

Core Insights - The launch of the "Star People Delicious Moments Series" by Pop Mart has generated significant consumer interest, leading to a buying frenzy with high viewership on live streams [2][8] - The inventory for the new series was notably lower compared to previous releases, resulting in products selling out within minutes [2] - The secondary market shows that the new series has a higher premium compared to previous releases, indicating strong demand and potential for future growth [8][9] Group 1: Product Launch and Sales Performance - Pop Mart's new series saw a live stream viewership of 560,000 on the抽盒机小程序 and 2.705 million on its Tmall flagship store [2] - The "Star People" series products sold out within minutes, with over 360,000 consumers adding the plush cookie keychain to their carts, while only 20,000 units were available [2] - In contrast, the previous "Mini LABUBU" series sold over 300,000 units on its launch night [2] Group 2: Market Demand and Pricing Trends - The hidden variant "Little Bear Cookie" from the new series has seen its price rise from 59 yuan to 929 yuan, a 16-fold increase, indicating high market demand [8] - The average transaction price for the "Star People" blind box is 167 yuan, compared to 135 yuan for the "Crybaby" series, despite the lower original price of the "Star People" blind box at 89 yuan [9] - The premium for the new series exceeds that of the previous "Mini LABUBU," which had a maximum price increase of 12.5 times [8][9] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competition between "Star People" and "Crybaby" is intensifying, with "Star People" emerging as a strong contender for the next popular IP after "LABUBU" [9] - The market is closely watching which character will become the next top seller for Pop Mart, especially as the popularity of "LABUBU" begins to wane [9]

Core Insights - The launch of the "Star People Delicious Moments Series Blind Box" by Pop Mart has generated significant pre-sale interest, with products already listed on second-hand platforms at marked-up prices, indicating strong demand [2][6] - The secondary market shows substantial price increases, with original prices of 69 yuan for figures rising to 119 yuan, and hidden items like the "Little Bear Biscuit" reaching up to 689 yuan, reflecting a nearly 10-fold premium [2][6] - The introduction of the Star People series may help reduce Pop Mart's reliance on the Labubu series, which accounted for 34.7% of the company's total revenue in the first half of 2025 [5][6] Product Demand and Pricing - The Star People series has seen a significant price surge on second-hand platforms, with random blind boxes increasing from 59 yuan to 182 yuan, and complete sets rising from 354 yuan to 769 yuan, both showing over 2 times premium [2][6] - The popularity of the Star People series is attributed to its "warm" and "healing" themes, resonating with the emotional consumption trends among younger consumers [6] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the revenue from the Labubu IP reached 4.814 billion yuan, while Pop Mart's total revenue was 13.876 billion yuan, highlighting the importance of Labubu to the company's financials [5] - The Star People series has quickly become one of Pop Mart's fastest-growing IPs, generating over 390 million yuan in revenue in the first half of 2025 [6] Market Position - As of the latest report, Pop Mart's stock closed at 261.8 HKD per share, with a total market capitalization of 351.6 billion HKD, reflecting a 19.3% decline over the past month [6]

Core Insights - The launch of the "Star People Delicious Moments Series Blind Box" by Pop Mart has generated significant pre-sale interest, with products already listed on second-hand platforms at marked-up prices, indicating strong demand [1][2] - The "Star People" series has the potential to reduce Pop Mart's reliance on the Labubu series, which has been a concern for investors [2] Group 1: Product Demand and Pricing - The "Star People" series products, originally priced at 69 yuan, are being resold for as high as 119 yuan on second-hand platforms, showing a substantial markup [1] - The hidden variant "Little Bear Biscuit" has seen its price soar from 59 yuan to 689 yuan, reflecting a nearly 10-fold increase in value [1] - Random blind boxes have increased in price from 59 yuan to 182 yuan, while complete sets have risen from 354 yuan to 769 yuan, both showing over 2 times markup [1] Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Position - The artist IP THE MONSTERS, which includes Labubu, generated revenue of 4.814 billion yuan, accounting for 34.7% of Pop Mart's total revenue of 13.876 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [1] - The "Star People" series has quickly become one of Pop Mart's fastest-growing new IPs, achieving over 100 million yuan in revenue within its first year and 390 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [2] - Pop Mart's stock closed at 261.8 HKD per share, with a total market capitalization of 351.6 billion HKD, reflecting a 19.3% decline over the past month [2]