（原标题：高盛分析师警告：美国经济可能重新加速 小心美联储货币政策转向） 智通财经APP获悉，9月28日，高盛分析师 Cosimo Codacci-Pisanelli 和 Rikin Shah 在最新报告中称，美 国经济面临重新加速的可能性正在上升，这一预期建立在劳动力市场韧性、财政刺激预期以及宽松金融 环境等多重利好因素基础之上。 报告称，这一经济重新加速的前景将对美联储货币政策路径产生重要影响，特别是在美联储选出新主席 人选的背景下。高盛指出，关键问题在于美联储是否会在经济健康运行时仍将利率降至中性水平以下， 以及是否能够在特朗普任期内实施加息政策。 Part.01 多重顺风助推经济 "重新加速" 高盛的分析显示，美国经济在多项关键指标上展现出强劲表现。 据高盛称,其美国宏观经济意外指数 (US MAP surprise index) 近期大幅飙升，本周的初请失业金人数也令 人鼓舞。该行全球投资研究部 (GIR) 预计，美国第三季度 GDP 环比年化增长率将达到 2.6%的健康水 平。 风险资产的良好表现、美联储未来的降息预期以及美元走弱，共同营造了宽松的金融环境。 财政与投资 报告列举了推动这一风险的关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the gradual internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) since the 2015 exchange rate reform, emphasizing that the current level of RMB internationalization does not match China's economic and trade scale. It identifies four new trends in the international monetary system and proposes four main lines of action to accelerate RMB internationalization [2][48]. Group 1: New Trends in the International Monetary System - The article identifies four new trends: cracks in the credibility of the US dollar, the rise of Chinese manufacturing, the restructuring of global trade and monetary systems, and the emergence of digital and tokenized financial ecosystems [3][4][26]. - The credibility of the US dollar is weakening due to persistent fiscal deficits and high inflation, as well as the weaponization of its reserve currency status [9][10]. - Chinese manufacturing has maintained a leading position globally, with a significant share of global output and exports, and is moving up the value chain [16][17]. - The restructuring of global trade relationships is evident as the US imposes tariffs, leading to a decrease in its role as the final consumer and an increase in trade among non-US countries [27][28]. Group 2: Four Main Lines to Promote RMB Internationalization - The article suggests four main lines to promote RMB internationalization: expanding the supply of RMB-denominated safe assets, enhancing the settlement and pricing functions of RMB in commodity trade, coordinating onshore and offshore RMB markets, and utilizing digital RMB and tokenized RMB assets [5][48]. - Expanding the supply of RMB safe assets is crucial, as foreign holdings of Chinese government bonds are currently below 6%, and there is a need for more offshore RMB sovereign and quasi-sovereign debt [50][51]. - Enhancing the settlement and pricing functions of RMB in key commodities, such as lithium and LNG, is essential to increase the share of RMB in trade settlements [54][55]. - Coordinating onshore and offshore RMB markets can improve market stability and liquidity, while expanding the application scenarios for digital RMB can enhance its usage in cross-border transactions [6][63][71]. Group 3: Digital and Tokenized Financial Ecosystem - The rise of digital currencies, particularly central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), is reshaping the financial landscape, providing a bridge between traditional fiat currencies and digital assets [4][43]. - The digital RMB has seen significant adoption, with over 1.8 billion wallets opened and transactions exceeding 7.3 trillion RMB, indicating a growing acceptance of digital currencies [43][72]. - Tokenization of traditional financial assets is on the rise, with initiatives to issue tokenized government bonds and other assets, creating a comprehensive digital financial ecosystem [46][72].

Our next guest says we have arrived at an important cyclical turning point and he sees the market broadening though perhaps not booming from here. Joining us now Michael Canowitz, chief investment strategist at Piper Sandler. Good to see you.Welcome. Um so broadening in what respect. I mean are we going to finally see uh sort of the earnings growth catch up from you know the average stock or is it just going to be kind of a rotation of flows.How do you see this playing out. I I think it's more about a a bre ...

Group 1 - The possibility of a re-acceleration in the U.S. economy is increasing, driven by a resilient labor market, expectations of fiscal stimulus, and a loose financial environment [1][2] - The U.S. macroeconomic surprise index has significantly risen, and initial jobless claims have shown encouraging results, with a projected Q3 GDP annualized growth rate of 2.6% [2][6] - Key factors contributing to this economic outlook include loose financial conditions, positive fiscal policies, and a solid consumer base [3][4][5] Group 2 - The monetary policy path of the Federal Reserve will be influenced by the new chairperson, with differing scenarios for 2025 and 2026 [7][8] - Current employment growth is below the "breakeven" level, suggesting a potential normalization of policy rates closer to neutral levels (3-3.5%) [7] - Two distinct trading strategies are proposed based on market expectations of the Fed's response to economic re-acceleration, including long positions in U.S. long-term breakeven inflation rates and gold if rates remain low, or a steeper yield curve if the Fed tightens policy [8]

这一看涨立场呼应了当前的市场乐观情绪。得益于市场对美联储及时降息以避免经济衰退的预期，以及人工智能热潮对科技巨头的提振，全球股 市此前已攀升至历史新高。 与此同时，高盛将信贷评级从中性下调至减持，但保持对股票12个月的看涨建议。该机构认为，虽然股票估值可能超出当前水平，但这对信贷构 成约束。 宽松政策支撑看涨前景 高盛策略师团队基于美国经济韧性、支撑性估值水平以及美联储鸽派转向，预计全球股市有望在年末前延续涨势，并建议投资者对股票采取"逢跌 买入"策略。 在最新发布的报告中，策略师将美股评级在三个月期限内上调至增持，理由包括良好的盈利增长、美联储在无衰退情况下的宽松政策以及全球财 政政策放松。高盛策略师认为，在政策支持强劲的后周期经济放缓阶段，股票资产通常表现良好。 此外，该团队还维持了对股票未来12个月的看涨建议。对于信贷资产，高盛则认为，尽管短期承压，但从12个月的维度看，由于衰退风险相对较 低以及有利的供需格局，其悲观程度有所降低。 风险犹存，强调多元化配置 尽管发布了看涨的短期建议，但高盛团队也警告称，市场并非没有风险。他们指出，短期内经济增长或利率出现意外冲击的风险依然存在，投资 者需保持警惕。 高 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs strategists believe that global stock markets are likely to continue their upward trend until the end of the year, supported by the resilience of the US economy, strong valuations, and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve [1] - The strategy team, led by Christian Mueller-Glissmann, has upgraded their stock allocation rating to "overweight" for the next three months, citing strong earnings growth and a lack of recession backdrop as key factors [1] - The team suggests buying on market pullbacks before the end of the year, as recession risks are considered stable and manageable [1] Group 2 - Optimistic expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's timely interest rate cuts to avoid recession have driven global stock markets to historical highs, with Goldman Sachs raising its S&P 500 index target to 6800 points, anticipating a further 2% increase in the next three months [3] - Analysts expect a 7.1% year-on-year increase in S&P 500 component earnings for Q3, marking the smallest growth in two years, as the focus shifts to the upcoming earnings season [3] - Goldman Sachs warns of potential risks from growth falling short of expectations or interest rate fluctuations in the short term, while maintaining a "neutral" stance on regional allocation and recommending international asset diversification to mitigate risks [3]

格隆汇9月29日｜高盛将全球股市三个月前景的评级从"中性"上调至"增持"，理由是美国经济强劲、估 值具有支撑作用，以及美联储立场更为鸽派。高盛分析师在一份报告中表示："我们认为，良好的企业 盈利增长、美联储在不出现衰退的情况下放松货币政策以及全球财政政策宽松将继续支撑股市。" ...

来源：滚动播报 高盛将未来三个月全球股票评级从中性上调至增持。 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs issues a rare acceleration warning, indicating that the U.S. economy is likely to re-accelerate next year rather than experience a soft landing, which could complicate monetary policy by 2026 [2] - The report highlights three key factors contributing to the upward risk for GDP: resilient labor market, fiscal stimulus, and loose financial conditions, with the GDP growth forecast for Q3 raised to an annualized rate of 2.6% [2] - If these favorable conditions materialize, GDP growth could exceed 3.5% in the first half of next year, significantly above the market consensus of 1.8% [2] Group 2 - Two scenarios are presented for trading strategies: Scenario A involves a dovish new chair with slow action on tightening, suggesting long positions in inflation-linked assets and short positions in the dollar [3] - Scenario B anticipates independent rate hikes starting in Q2 2026, recommending steepening the yield curve and investing in financial stocks while shorting long-duration bonds [3] - The report warns that volatility is likely underestimated, with the current MOVE index at 90, well below the historical average of 120, indicating potential for a sell-off in the bond market if data continues to exceed expectations [3] Group 3 - Investors are advised to prepare for tools that benefit from a steepening yield curve and to closely monitor the political dynamics between the White House and the Federal Reserve, as the 2026 interest rate path may hinge on personnel decisions rather than inflation data [4]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs report indicates an increased likelihood of a U.S. economic acceleration, driven by a resilient labor market, expectations of fiscal stimulus, and a loose financial environment [1] - The latest data on initial jobless claims shows improvement, leading Goldman Sachs' global investment research team to forecast a 2.6% GDP growth rate for the third quarter, which will support growth in the first half of next year [1] - The prospect of economic acceleration will influence Federal Reserve monetary policy, especially with the upcoming appointment of a new chair [1] - Goldman Sachs notes that the monetary policy path for 2025 and 2026 may differ significantly [1] - The firm predicts that the policy interest rate will gradually normalize to 3% - 3.5% for the remainder of this year, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut in both October and December to avoid overly restricting the labor market [1] - Future monetary policy will heavily depend on the policy preferences of the new chair [1]