最近和不少关注港股上市的朋友交流，发现 大家最怕的不是做材料，而是不知道交易所到底怎么"挑 刺" 。尤其是比较关注尽调环节：尽调怎么做才能避免踩坑？港交所审核到底卡在哪里？ 我们复盘了大量案例，总结了一些 尽调环节中的关键操作要点 ，下面就分享给大家： $$(\mathbf{\partial}_{I})=\sqrt{2}e_{i j}^{2}\sqrt{\beta}\sqrt{\tilde{\omega}}$$ （1）第三方访谈 第三方访谈是投行尽调的重要组成部分，一般 由投行牵头，联同审计，保荐人、境内外律师 对客 户/供应商/银行进行面对面访谈。投行根据不同的业务模式进行分类（比如直销/分销、境内/境 外），并按照客户、供应商及银行进行 分层抽样访谈 。 客户访谈 按照不同销售模式，抽取各分类维度下的前几大客户进行访谈，比如 不同产品种类，境内/境外客 户，直销/分销客户 ，确保各个口径下的客户访谈覆盖率达到一定百分比。 供应商访谈 根据不同类别的供应商进行分层抽样，确保每个类别口径下的供应商覆盖率达到一定百分比。 往来银行访谈 根据银行存贷款余额及发生额，选择一定比例的银行进行访谈。 （2）管理层尽职调 ...

Core Viewpoint - The escalating tariff conflict between the Trump administration and Wall Street has raised concerns about the economic impact, particularly following unexpected PPI data that dampened expectations for a significant Fed rate cut in September [1][5]. Group 1: Tariff Policy and Economic Impact - Trump's tariff policy has sparked a fierce debate, with the President publicly criticizing Goldman Sachs for its assessment of tariff impacts, claiming that tariffs are borne by foreign entities and will not lead to inflation [1][3]. - Goldman Sachs' data indicates that U.S. companies currently bear 64% of the tariff costs, with consumers responsible for 22% and foreign exporters only 14%. This consumer burden is projected to rise to 67% by October [3][5]. - Historical data supports the notion that tariffs often lead to increased costs for U.S. manufacturers and consumers, as seen in past instances like the steel tariffs under the Bush administration [5][9]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - The unexpected rise in PPI, which increased by 3.3% year-over-year, has shifted market sentiment away from anticipated Fed rate cuts, with previous expectations of a 90% chance of a September cut now in doubt [5][7]. - Analysts have noted that the sectors most affected by tariffs, such as industrial metals and machinery, have seen significant price increases, contributing to inflationary pressures [7][9]. - Financial institutions are warning of potential market corrections, with UBS highlighting overvaluation in U.S. equities and Stifel predicting a possible 14% drop in the S&P 500 by year-end [7][9].

Group 1: Inflation Trends - In the US, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.32% in July, aligning with expectations, with forecasts suggesting a monthly increase of 0.3%-0.4% in the coming months due to tariffs affecting core goods prices, particularly in electronics, automobiles, and clothing [1][2] - The forecast for core CPI/PCE inflation rates is projected to reach 3.2% by December, with expectations of a decline towards target levels next year as tariff impacts diminish and the labor market cools [1][2] Group 2: China's Economic Situation - In contrast to the US, China's Producer Price Index (PPI) fell into deep deflation, with a forecasted PPI inflation rate of -2.8% for this year and -1.0% for next year, attributed to severe overcapacity issues [2][3] Group 3: Economic Data Reliability - Concerns have been raised regarding the reliability of US economic data, with evidence of a slight decline in data quality over the long term, potentially impacting the information value of economic indicators [6] Group 4: Geopolitical Events - The upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin has generated skepticism in the market regarding its potential to significantly alter Russian gas supplies or lead to a lasting peace agreement in Ukraine, with natural gas prices remaining stable [7] - The meeting is not expected to result in substantial changes to Russian oil supply, as constraints are primarily due to OPEC+ quotas and investment levels rather than US sanctions [7] Group 5: UK Monetary Policy - Following hawkish signals from the Bank of England, the expected timeline for interest rate adjustments has been pushed back, with forecasts for the terminal rate now anticipated to be reached in April instead of March [8] - The GBP is expected to face depreciation risks, leading to revised forecasts for EUR/GBP and GBP/USD exchange rates [8] Group 6: Tariff Impacts - The US has announced higher tariffs on India and Switzerland, which are expected to negatively impact economic growth in these countries [9] Group 7: Economic and Market Predictions - Global GDP growth is projected at 2.5% for 2025, with specific forecasts for major economies including the US (1.7%), China (4.7%), and the Euro area (1.2%) [10] - Policy rates are expected to adjust, with the US rate forecasted at 3.13% for 2026 [10] Group 8: Commodity and Currency Markets - Predictions for commodity prices include Brent crude oil at $111 per barrel and natural gas prices at $3.90 per million British thermal units for 2025 [12] - Currency forecasts indicate a potential increase in the EUR/GBP exchange rate to 0.87 over the next three months [8]

期货公司观点 广发期货： 8 月来随着多个国家和美国达成贸易协议后对市场情绪影响减弱，且关税收入可能对冲通胀上升的影响 对美元资产形成支撑使价格承压，但 7 月美国经济数据呈现恶化再次提振9 月美联储降息可能性且部分 国家贸易摩擦仍存在，市场避险需求升温，未来美联储官员态度和美国通胀等相关数据对市场的影响将 不断增加带来反复波动。技术面上国际金价持续盘中形成三角形态在 3450 美元的前高存在阻力需酝酿 更强的突破驱动，宏观消息影响金价波动增加但预期仍有脉冲上涨可能，可在价格回调到位阶段低位通 过黄金看涨期权上构建牛市价差组合，降低做多的资金成本。 高盛集团预测，美联储今年将降息3次，每次25个基点，明年将再降息2次。经过5次降息后，联邦基准 利率将降低到3%至3.25%的区间，低于当前4.25%至4.5%的水平。 另外，美国利率期货市场显示，美联储9月降息25个基点的概率为93%；降息50个基点的概率为7%。 这意味着美联储很大概率将进入降息周期，尽管这并不是鲍威尔的本意。 从历史表现上来看，进入降息周期将对贵金属有正面的刺激作用。 日内收盘，沪金下跌0.39%，报收775.8元/克。 ...

华兴资本控股(01911)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.31%，报6.56港元，成交额4299.8万港元。 消息面上，近日，华兴资本控股发盈喜，集团预期于截至2025年6月30日止6个月取得公司拥有人应占利 润约6498万人民币，而于2024年同期取得公司拥有人应占亏损约7382万人民币。 集团于截至2025年6月30日止6个月实现扭亏为盈并取得显著盈利主要由于集团投资管理业务分部经营利 润大幅增加，持续为集团的财务表现提供大力支持；华兴证券有限公司截至2025年6月30日止6个月的亏 损大幅降低；及集团在降低经营成本方面取得显著成果，经营开支显著降低。 ...

近期，在资本市场的深度调整周期中，华兴资本交出一份靓丽成绩单，2025年上半年预期实现净利润不 低于约6498万元人民币，相较去年同期7382万元人民币的亏损，实现了近1.4亿元人民币的大幅上扬， 不仅是一次财务层面的扭亏为盈，更是公司调整与转型成效的集中体现。恰逢其时，创始人包凡结束配 合调查回归。作为投行王者的缔造者，他所代表的远见、胆识与不懈进取的华兴精神，将为华兴资本 2.0阶段的发展注入新的动力，推动华兴资本在更高的平台上稳步前行。 二、穿越风雨再启程，再次创业进入2.0时代 值得一提的是，华兴资本的优势始终建立在制度化的管理构架与团队协作基础上，而非依赖单一核心人 物。这一点在创始人包凡暂别期间得到充分印证：即便面对核心人物缺席，华兴资本在多位核心管理者 带领下，仍展现出强大韧性与适应能力。过渡阶段，时任代理首席执行官谢屹璟被任命为董事会主席， 并由代理首席执行官改任为首席执行官，保证了核心业务的推进和团队人员的稳定。 2024年9月，历经长达17个月的合规整改，华兴资本满足港交所全部复牌指引：包括补发2022年、2023 年、2024年上半年报共4份财务报告，披露资产状况，并通过季度公告向股东传 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs indicates that the momentum of the stock market may soon come to a halt, with increased risks of a downturn in the near future [1] - The firm's "equity asymmetry framework" signals a heightened risk of stock market declines, with a greater than 10% chance of a pullback in the S&P 500 index over the next three months and over 20% in the next 12 months [1] - The recent increase in pullback risk resembles the changes seen before the market downturn in April, suggesting a potential correlation with historical market behavior [4] Group 2 - Analysts highlight a "deteriorating business cycle momentum" and recent weakness in the job market, with fewer new jobs created than expected in recent months [5] - The firm anticipates inflation to rise above 3% in the second half of the year due to the effects of tariffs, which may lead to more accommodative policies from the Federal Reserve [5] - With major stock indices hovering near historical highs, Wall Street remains vigilant for signs of an impending market correction, especially given the S&P 500's 10% increase year-to-date and a 29% rise since its recent low [5]

在华尔街与高盛持相似观点的同行并非少数。CNBC网站14日报道称，尽管投资者对周二相对温和的消 费者价格指数报告表示欢迎，但经济学家预计通胀的最大影响尚未显现。摩根大通经济学家费罗利表 示："关税可能会使美国GDP增速下降1%，并使通胀上升1%—1.5%，且部分影响已经显现。鉴于今年 关税涨幅远超美国战后以来的任何时期，其对消费者价格的传导程度仍存在很大不确定性。"瑞银高级 经济学家罗斯也说："我们预计，随着企业将更高成本转嫁给消费者，通胀将继续呈逐步上升趋 势。"（倪浩） 高盛经济学家大卫·梅里克周三在接受美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）采访时表示，不管特朗普是 否有异议，高盛对研究结论充满信心，"我们坚持这份研究结果，"梅里克说，"如果最近的关税与2月份 最早加征的关税呈现相同模式，那么到秋季时，我们估计消费者将承担大约三分之二的成本。" 此前特朗普坚称关税正带来数万亿美元收入，辩称支付大部分账单的是外国企业和政府而非美国家庭。 周二他指责高盛在市场影响和关税效应方面始终判断错误。 【环球时报综合报道】据美国《财富》杂志13日报道，面对美国总统特朗普的公开声讨，华尔街投行高 盛经济学家当地时间周三在回 ...

据最新统计，今年香港市场已有56只新股上市（包括即将上市的天岳先进），其中实现A+H股上市的包括宁德时代、恒 瑞医药、海天味业等共11家公司，数量占比接近20%，融资额贡献更大。 一家头部投资银行负责人告诉记者，目前香港市场IPO融资额已经超过去年，重返全球第一的宝座，IPO家数预计全年达 到100家，相比去年70家实现较大增长。 近期，A+H股的上市趋势加速，香港市场传言监管可能设置最低市值门槛。 一家头部中资投行表示，200亿市值以上且已公告赴港上市的A股企业占多数，港股IPO火爆的趋势将延续，存量储备项 目丰厚，大概需要2年时间消化。 券商中国记者不完全统计，截至8月13日，目前已公告筹划发行H股的A股上市公司，一共有87家。其中，总市值超过 1000亿元人民币的就有10家，500亿—1000亿元的有8家；200亿—500亿元有33家；100亿—200亿元的有24家；100亿以下 的只有11家。 A+H股上市火热趋势持续 今年以来，香港IPO融资火热的趋势持续至今，国际资金回归参与新股配售，尤其大型项目A+H股成为一大亮点和热点。 自去年以来，中国证监会支持内地优质企业赴港上市，港交所和香港证监会也推出 ...

Group 1 - The former chairman of CICC Capital, Ding Wei, has reportedly lost contact with the outside world since early July, raising concerns about a possible investigation by disciplinary authorities [1][6] - Ding Wei completed a cross-border biopharmaceutical investment just two months before his disappearance, acquiring a 12.30% stake in Cayman Islands-based Novagenesis Therapeutix Inc. for a total investment of approximately $419.66 million [2][3] - Multiple key personnel from CICC, including the general manager of CICC Qiyuan Fund, have also reportedly gone missing during the same period, suggesting a broader anti-corruption campaign within the financial sector [6][11] Group 2 - Ding Wei's career trajectory reflects a significant transition for CICC from investment banking to asset management, having played a crucial role in major IPOs for state-owned enterprises [8][9] - After retiring in 2020, Ding Wei established a private equity investment platform in Xiamen, which includes multiple investment entities [4][10] - The recent developments surrounding Ding Wei's disappearance and the simultaneous loss of contact among other CICC executives indicate a serious situation that may have wider implications for the industry [11][12]