Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba-SW (09988.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a strong demand for cloud services and improvements in flash sales user experience, while acknowledging short-term pressure on e-commerce [4][6] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 have been lowered to 104.3 billion, 131.3 billion, and 164.7 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of -34.0%, +25.8%, and +25.5% [4][5] - The report maintains a positive outlook on long-term ecological synergy driven by AI investments and cloud service expansion [4][6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - FY2026 revenue is projected at 1,098.75 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 10.3% [8] - Non-GAAP net profit for FY2026 is expected to be 104.38 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 34.0% [8] - The diluted EPS for FY2026 is forecasted at 5.7 RMB, with corresponding P/E ratios of 25.1, 19.5, and 15.2 for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 respectively [8]

环球市场动态 " 十 五 五 " 辅 导 读 本 中 的 增 量 信 息 股 票 新一轮美联储官员发声较为鸽派， 美联储 12 月降息预期回升，全球 市场周一回暖。A 股小幅上涨，市 场继续关注中日紧张关系；港股止 跌，科技股反弹明显；欧洲股市收 高，俄乌和谈取得进展进一步提振 市场；美股大幅反弹，科技股上涨 明显推动纳指涨 2.7%，金龙中国指 数同样大涨。 外 汇 / 商 品 交易员权衡乌克兰与俄罗斯达成和 平协议的前景，周一国际油价漲超 1%；美联储 12 月降息预期升温， 国际金价格上涨 0.4%。 固 定 收 益 周一美国国债上涨，长端领涨。美 联储官员再放鸽。市场上调对美联 储 12 月降息预期。2 年期美国国债 拍卖表现良好。亚洲债市交投清淡， 但表现稳健。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 11 月 25 日 ▪ 中央印发两本 "十五五" 辅导书籍，在经济增速方面，辅导书籍就 2035 远景目标所需的经济增速给出具体指 引，其中暗含引导物价回升或汇率在未来适度升值的诉求。在宏观政策方面，辅导书籍透露财政 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a reversal in afternoon trading, with all three major indices turning positive by the close. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3836.77 points, up 0.05%, with a trading volume of 715.54 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12585.08 points, up 0.37%, with a trading volume of 1012.23 billion yuan. The ChiNext Index closed at 2929.04 points, up 0.31%, with a trading volume of 476.22 billion yuan [1]. Sector Performance - The leading sectors in terms of gains included military equipment (up 5.38%), military electronics (up 4.62%), and cultural media (up 3.54%). The total trading volume for military equipment was 288.93 million hands, with a net inflow of 6.71 billion yuan [2]. - Conversely, sectors that saw declines included energy (down 3.39%), insurance (down 1.27%), and airport and shipping (down 1.13%). The energy sector had a trading volume of 58.12 million hands, with a net outflow of 0.20 billion yuan [2].

Group 1 - Miniso launched the "IP Genius Plan" on November 21, aiming to recruit top IP creators globally with annual salaries ranging from 1 to 10 million, to enhance original IP incubation and build its own IP matrix [1] - Miniso's financial report for Q3 2025 revealed that its toy brand TOP TOY achieved revenue of 570 million, marking a 111% year-on-year growth [1] - Huayuan Securities highlighted the emerging consumption trends among the younger generation, suggesting a focus on head brands in the ancient gold sector, such as Laopu Gold, and companies with successful IP creation and operation experience, like Pop Mart and Miniso [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Stock Consumption ETF (513230) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Theme Index, encompassing leading companies in various consumer sectors, including Pop Mart, Laopu Gold, and Miniso, alongside internet e-commerce giants like Tencent, Kuaishou, Alibaba, and Xiaomi, emphasizing the blend of technology and consumption [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 5.15 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.1%, achieving a historical high in revenue [7] - Non-GAAP operating profit reached 140 million yuan, up 34.9% year-on-year, while non-GAAP net profit was 110 million yuan, reflecting a 22.3% increase [7] - The company is expanding its store network, with a total of 2,195 stores as of Q3 2025, an increase of 103 stores from the previous quarter [7] - The company is enhancing its multi-category recycling services, with a 95% year-on-year growth in multi-category recycling transaction volume [7] - The company is preparing for international expansion, with a focus on exporting domestic high-quality models to meet overseas demand [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for FY23 to FY27 are as follows: 12,966 million yuan, 16,328 million yuan, 20,893 million yuan, 25,960 million yuan, and 31,273 million yuan, with growth rates of 31.4%, 25.9%, 28.0%, 24.3%, and 20.5% respectively [6][8] - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY25 to FY27 are 421 million yuan, 649 million yuan, and 834 million yuan, with growth rates of 34.0%, 54.3%, and 28.4% respectively [6][8] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 5.9% in FY23 to 18.0% in FY27 [6]

Market Overview - On November 21, the internet e-commerce sector declined by 2.05%, with Xin Xun Da leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3834.89, down 2.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12538.07, down 3.41% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers included: - Huakai Yidan (300592) with a closing price of 11.58, up 4.14% [1] - Jiao Dian Technology (002315) at 44.23, up 1.68% [1] - Kai Chun Co., Ltd. (301001) at 32.20, up 1.42% [1] - Major decliners included: - Xin Xun Da (300518) at 15.29, down 8.22% [2] - Li Ren Li Zhuang (605136) at 10.16, down 7.04% [2] - Xing Hui Co., Ltd. (300464) at 7.12, down 5.32% [2] Capital Flow - The internet e-commerce sector experienced a net outflow of 172 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 131 million yuan [2][3] - The sector's overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment among different investor types [2][3] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Huakai Yidan (300592) had a net outflow of 22.98 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Kai Chun Co., Ltd. (301001) saw a net inflow of 11.30 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Li Ren Li Zhuang (605136) experienced a net outflow of 11.89 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

| 韩国综合 3953.620 -3.32% -135.630 KS11 | | --- | | 日经指数 48702.980 -3.22% -1620.930 N225 | | 富时亚太指数 436.700 – –2.32% – –10.370 AW06 AW06 | | 澳大利亚普通股... 8738.300 AORD | | 富时澳大利亚指数 702.480 –1.87% –13.410 WIAUS WIAUS | A股黑天鹅突袭，下跌原因找到了，资金疯狂抄底越跌越买，如何走，这段话像个炸雷，却又藏着细碎 的脉络，让人又惊又好奇，接下来我把重点先抛出来，留点口水和问号给你，别急着走。 今天下午市场突然炸开，是黑天鹅来了，三大股指收盘普遍跌近1%，成交量不足2万亿，沪深北三大交 易所累计成交19460亿元，个股上跌多于涨，超过4100家下跌，上涨仅1277家。 跌幅虽不小，但过程没那种人踩人的恐慌味道，反而在下行里头频频有资金进场，尾盘还能看到明显抄 底动作，说明有人在更低位接盘，也就是说，越跌越有人往里头拽股票。 市场里有几块比较亮的板块，互联网电商类表现还行，小红书、拼多多、快手这些名字在盘面上有点活 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock consumer sector experienced fluctuations, with the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) opening high but declining nearly 0.5% [1] - Among the holdings, companies like Chuangke Industrial, Samsonite, Li Ning, and Midea Group saw significant gains, while Xpeng Motors, Miniso, Xiaomi Group, and Bilibili faced notable declines [1] - The implementation of the "National Subsidy" policy for personal consumption loans starting September 1, 2025, aims to reduce consumer credit costs through fiscal funds, reflecting the policy's inclusiveness and addressing diverse consumer needs [1] Group 2 - Shanghai Securities noted that October's consumption data showed internal structural highlights, revealing strong endogenous momentum despite an overall stable trend [1] - When excluding the short-term drag from automobiles, the actual growth rate of social consumption rebounded significantly to 4.0%, indicating that the resilience of the consumption market exceeds surface data [1] - The driving forces behind this momentum include ongoing consumption upgrade trends, particularly strong demand for gold and jewelry, and the revitalization of service consumption driven by the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays [1] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index, encompassing a wide range of sectors including leading new consumption companies like Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Miniso, as well as internet e-commerce giants like Tencent, Kuaishou, Alibaba, and Xiaomi, highlighting its strong tech and consumer attributes [2]

Core Viewpoint - Major internet companies are actively acquiring payment licenses as the third-party payment market faces critical challenges, particularly with upcoming license renewals and regulatory changes [2][4][14]. Group 1: Company Actions - Xiaohongshu has acquired 100% of Dongfang Electronic Payment Co., Ltd. through its subsidiary, completing a capital increase [1][7]. - Tongcheng Travel and 58.com have also acquired payment licenses through affiliated companies [2]. - Tongcheng Yilong spent 300 million to acquire Xinxing Payment, a fully qualified payment institution [8]. Group 2: Market Context - The third-party payment market is at a pivotal moment, with many institutions facing license renewals by May 2026, and new regulations set to take effect in 2024 [2][4]. - The new regulations will require a minimum registered capital of 100 million yuan and establish dynamic net asset requirements linked to reserve fund sizes [4]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - Domestic third-party payment institutions face intense competition and low fee rates compared to overseas markets, leading to financial strain for smaller players [5]. - As of November 2025, 107 payment licenses have been canceled, a nearly 40% reduction from peak levels [6]. Group 4: Importance of Payment Licenses - Payment licenses are becoming essential for internet platforms to accelerate commercialization and enhance customer experience [9][12]. - Companies like Douyin and Pinduoduo have previously secured payment licenses to stabilize and expand their business operations [12][15]. Group 5: Future Trends - The trend of "buy now, pay later" is emerging as a key competitive factor in the local lifestyle market, indicating the growing importance of payment solutions [13][14]. - Major internet companies are increasing their capital investments in payment entities to support their growth strategies [15].

- The report does not contain any information about quantitative models or factors.