证券研究报告 商贸零售 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 05 日 元旦假期出行数据亮眼，抖音美妆 GMV 预计全年高增 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——新消费行业周报（2025.12.29-2026.1.2） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 元旦假期消费数据更新：元旦数据表现较优，或因今年假期时间长于去年同期。即 将迎来春节 9 天长假，期待后续假期出行表现。 联系人 1）出行数据：据交通运输部，元旦假期期间，预计全社会跨区域人员流动量累计 5.9 亿人次，日均 1.98 亿人次，同比增长 19.5%（去年同期假期为 1 天）。其中：铁路 客运量预计 4822.3 万人次，日均 1607.5 万人次，增长 53.1%；民航客运量预计 588.1 万人次，日均 196.03 万人次，增长 10.49%。 2）重点景区数据：① 据美团旅行数据，2026 年元旦假期，"西安城墙·碑林历史 文化景区"门票预订量同比去年大涨 134%。西安元旦文旅预订 ...

证券研究报告 商贸零售 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 29 日 证券分析师 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 蜜雪冰城美国首店在好莱坞开业，花西子入驻美国最大美妆零售平台 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——新消费行业周报（2025.12.22-2025.12.26） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 蜜雪冰城美国首店在好莱坞开业，打开美洲拓店版图。近日蜜雪冰城洛杉矶好莱坞 店正式营业。该店位于星光大道"中国剧院"正对面，所在商圈消费成熟。作为蜜 雪冰城在美洲市场开出的首家门店，标志着其全球化战略再迈出关键一步，根据郑 州晚报，目前蜜雪冰城在美国的多家新店正在紧张筹备当中，巴西、墨西哥等美洲 国家的门店也在稳步推进，持续深化品牌全球化战略。美国首店延续品牌经典菜单 设计，涵盖冰淇淋、纯茶、果茶、奶茶、现磨咖啡等多个产品系列，同时结合美国 消费者的饮食偏好，提供多种小料、糖度选项，门店菜单信息显示，招牌冰淇淋售 价 1.19 美元，冰鲜柠檬水售价 1.99 美元，拿铁咖啡售价 2.99 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the robust growth of emerging consumer goods, reflecting the new consumption concepts developed by the younger generation in the current social environment. Understanding this new consumption narrative is crucial for capturing the growth of new consumer companies [4][15] - The report suggests focusing on high-quality domestic brands with strong professionalism and innovation in the beauty and skincare sector, such as Mao Geping and Shangmei [4][15] - In the gold and jewelry sector, it recommends attention to leading brands in the ancient gold segment that are favored by younger consumers, such as Laopu Gold and Chaohongji [4][15] - For trendy toys, companies with successful experience in IP creation and operation, like Pop Mart, are highlighted [4][15] - In the ready-to-drink tea segment, it advises focusing on strong brand power and extensive business coverage of leading tea brands like Mixue Group and Guming [4][15] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Performance - In November, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.7% year-on-year, with the rise primarily driven by food prices turning from decline to increase. The CPI's year-on-year growth rate expanded by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the highest level since March 2024 [4] - The report tracks the performance of the new consumption sector, noting a weekly decline of 1.64% in the beauty and personal care sector and a 0.21% decline in the retail sector from December 8 to December 12, 2025 [7] Key Industry Data - In October, the retail sales of clothing and textiles increased by 6.3% year-on-year, cosmetics by 9.6%, and gold and silver jewelry by 37.6% [11][17] - The report indicates that the retail sales of beverages rose by 7.1% year-on-year in October [17]

假期催化+冰雪经济：旅游ETF(562510) 提振内需+低估赛道：食品饮料ETF(515170) 近日，马蜂窝发布的2025冬季"旅行蜂向标"清晰映照出当下冬季出行与消费新态势——"玩雪"与"避 寒"成为冬季出行的主要动力，"冬季旅游"热度环比上涨300%。这一现象也给消费领域带来启示：激发 冬季消费活力，既要深耕北方冰雪经济的"冷"资源，也要充分挖掘南方"避寒"需求的"暖"潜力，实 现"冷""暖"均衡发展。 12月9日，港股指数开盘表现分化，恒指高开0.06%，国企指数平开，恒生科技指数低开0.11%。港股消 费板块近期整体走势承压，港股消费ETF(513230)早盘持续下挫，现跌至0.5%上下，持仓股跌多涨少， 万洲国际、新秀丽、李宁、中国旺旺等涨幅居前，康师傅控股、小米集团、零跑汽车、哔哩哔哩、泡泡 玛特等跌幅居前。 华源证券表示，新兴消费品的蓬勃发展折射出新世代年轻人在当前社会环境下所孕育出的新兴消费观 念，正确的解读此类全新的消费叙事是抓住新消费公司成长的关键因素。 交银国际表示，2025年消费小幅回暖，展望2026年，消费有望延续温和增长的新常态，其核心特征是总 体需求增速偏缓，但消费理性化与需 ...

华源证券表示，新兴消费品的蓬勃发展折射出新世代年轻人在当前社会环境下所孕育出的新兴消费观 念，正确的解读此类全新的消费叙事是抓住新消费公司成长的关键因素。 交银国际表示，2025年消费小幅回暖，展望2026年，消费有望延续温和增长的新常态，其核心特征是总 体需求增速偏缓，但消费理性化与需求层级的上移不断推动结构性分化，进而成为细分市场的重要增长 动力。市场将逐步构建新平衡，以挖掘消费者需求为核心，更加重视经营效率提升；企业需精准洞察消 费趋势，通过产品、渠道、技术创新与供应链优化，把握新常态下的结构性机会。 12月9日，港股恒生指数、恒生科技指数早盘涨跌不一。 相关ETF方面，截至发稿，港股消费ETF（159735）涨0.25%。成分股中，小鹏汽车-W、阿里巴巴-W、 雅迪控股、吉利汽车、中国旺旺等涨幅领先。 港股消费ETF（159735）跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，该指数选取港股通范围内流动性较好、市值较 大的50只消费主题相关股票组成指数样本，采用自由流通市值加权，以反映港股通内消费类股票的整体 表现。 消息面来看，据智通财经，12月8日，国际四大会计师事务所之一的毕马威表示，展望接下来的宏观经 济运行， ...

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [3][4] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that online spending on Black Friday in the U.S. reached a record $11.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, although the number of items purchased decreased due to rising prices [4] - The report suggests focusing on emerging consumer brands that resonate with the new consumption concepts of younger generations, emphasizing the importance of understanding these narratives for investment opportunities [4][15] - The report notes that "Yujian Xiaomian," a Chinese noodle restaurant chain, has expanded its product offerings and achieved a revenue of 703 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 33.8% [4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The new consumption sector saw a weekly performance decline, with the beauty care sector down 2.00%, the retail sector down 0.83%, and the social services sector down 0.65% during the week of December 1 to December 5, 2025 [7] Key Industry Data - In October, retail sales for clothing and textiles in China increased by 6.3% year-on-year, while cosmetics retail sales rose by 9.6% [10][17] - Jewelry retail sales saw a significant increase of 37.6% year-on-year in October [17] - Beverage retail sales also grew by 7.1% year-on-year in October [17]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the upcoming overseas sales peak for Pop Mart, driven by its IP influence, with participation in major events like the Thanksgiving parade enhancing brand visibility [4] - The cosmetics collection store channel is gradually recovering, with Naturals leading in both overall and domestic rankings, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards self-care products [4] - The growth of emerging consumer goods reflects new consumption concepts among younger generations, emphasizing the importance of understanding these narratives for investment opportunities [4][16] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The new consumption sector saw a weekly increase, with the beauty care index up by 0.50%, retail index up by 3.45%, and social services index up by 3.92% during the week of November 24 to November 28, 2025 [7] Key Industry Data - In October, retail sales for clothing and textiles increased by 6.3%, cosmetics by 9.6%, and gold and silver jewelry by 37.6% [11][18] - The average sales per store in the cosmetics collection channel grew by 1.2%, with customer transactions increasing by 9.4% [4] Investment Analysis Recommendations - Focus on high-quality domestic brands in beauty care, such as Mao Ge Ping and Shangmei, and leading brands in ancient gold jewelry favored by younger consumers, like Laopu Gold and Chaohongji [16] - In the collectible toy sector, attention should be given to companies with strong IP creation and operational experience, such as Pop Mart [16] - For ready-to-drink tea, consider strong brands with extensive market coverage, like Mixue Group and Guming [16]

Group 1 - Miniso launched the "IP Genius Plan" on November 21, aiming to recruit top IP creators globally with annual salaries ranging from 1 to 10 million, to enhance original IP incubation and build its own IP matrix [1] - Miniso's financial report for Q3 2025 revealed that its toy brand TOP TOY achieved revenue of 570 million, marking a 111% year-on-year growth [1] - Huayuan Securities highlighted the emerging consumption trends among the younger generation, suggesting a focus on head brands in the ancient gold sector, such as Laopu Gold, and companies with successful IP creation and operation experience, like Pop Mart and Miniso [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Stock Consumption ETF (513230) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Theme Index, encompassing leading companies in various consumer sectors, including Pop Mart, Laopu Gold, and Miniso, alongside internet e-commerce giants like Tencent, Kuaishou, Alibaba, and Xiaomi, emphasizing the blend of technology and consumption [2]

题材方面，采掘行业、保险、医药商业等板块涨幅居前，光伏设备、非金属材料、电源设备等板块跌幅 居前。主力资金上，银行、生物制品、消费电子等行业概念流入居前。 ETF方面，或受相关消息刺激，港股创新药、港股消费、港股红利等相关ETF表现亮眼！ 【机构：医药板块估值经历较长时间调整，呈现显著结构性修复趋势】 2025年11月12日，市场全天震荡走势，三大指数集体收跌。截至收盘，沪指跌0.07%，深成指跌 0.36%，创业板指跌0.39%。 银河证券认为，医药板块估值经历较长时间调整，近期已呈现显著结构性修复趋势，但公募基金重仓持 仓水平仍低于历史均值，2025年在支持引导商保发展的政策背景下，支付端有望边际改善，创新药械有 望获益。 招银国际表示，近期，医药板块略有回调，这将带来低位布局机会。由于资本市场融资复苏、创新药出 海交易规模上涨，国内创新药研发需求出现回暖。叠加美国降息，CXO行业有望迎来业绩修复。 相关ETF：港股创新药ETF(159567)、港股通创新药ETF(159570)、港股通创新药ETF工银(159217)、港 股通医疗ETF富国(159506)、港股通创新药ETF(520880) 【提振消费 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The introduction of new tax policies for gold is expected to drive market share towards leading brands in the medium to long term. The new tax policy exempts value-added tax for standard gold transactions, which may lead to increased costs for non-investment gold products, ultimately raising retail prices and potentially suppressing consumer demand in the short term. However, this policy is anticipated to regulate the industry and strengthen the competitive advantage of compliant leading brands [5]. - Domestic beauty brands are beginning to establish a presence on video platforms, with significant growth in the social e-commerce sector. The GMV of WeChat mini-programs is expected to exceed 2.5 trillion yuan in 2025, with social e-commerce accounting for over 50% of total transactions. Brands that leverage this platform effectively may maintain competitive advantages [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding new consumer narratives shaped by younger generations, suggesting a focus on high-quality domestic brands in beauty, gold jewelry, trendy toys, and tea beverages [22]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The new consumption sector showed varied performance, with the beauty and personal care sector declining by 3.10%, while the retail index increased by 0.31% during the week of November 3 to November 7, 2025 [8]. Key Industry Data - In September, retail sales for clothing and textiles increased by 4.7%, cosmetics by 8.6%, and gold and silver jewelry by 9.7%. However, beverage retail sales saw a decline of 0.8% [12][16]. Investment Analysis Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality domestic brands with strong innovation in beauty, such as Mao Ge Ping and Shangmei; leading brands in traditional gold jewelry favored by younger consumers, such as Laopu Gold and Chaohongji; companies with successful IP creation and operation experience in trendy toys, like Pop Mart; and strong tea beverage brands with extensive market coverage, such as Mixue Group and Guming [22].