「 从来都不是一场短跑。 」 文 ｜ ATM Capital 屈田 很多人把出海理解为一道选择题：留在中国，还是去更远的地方。但对屈田来说，那更像一场漫长的对 时：与趋势对时，与耐心对时，也与自我对时。不是比谁更快，而是比谁的表针与时代咬合得更准。 作为中国第一代互联网产品经理，屈田2007年开始投资移动互联网，也是美团、UC Web等项目的早期投 资人。2017年开始肉身出海，扎根印尼雅加达，在几乎无人看清方向的时刻，押注东南亚与中国企业的 全球化。 那时，极兔还只是一个模糊的物流构想，印尼街头的电商包裹远未像今天这样密集。他亲历了这家公司 从东南亚、到中国、再到全球的三次生死突围。 外界后来喜欢用"前瞻"解释这一切。但在他自己的表达里，更真实的词是"忍"：在浪真正到来之前，必须 先学会独自站在岸边、承受漫长的曝光。 九年间，屈田见过太多企业把出海只是当成"多开一家分公司"，也见过太多人在受挫后折返。他对这些 失败的总结是，缺乏深度本地化能力。 "就像移民一样，你必须扎根到那个国家，才能真正理解市场、做好业务。" 屈田认为，真正的全球化更接近二次创业：组织要重写，文化要重译，连创始人对胜负的刻度都要重新 标 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the aviation sector, highlighting opportunities in the industry [2][3]. Core Insights - The Spring Festival travel rush has begun, with air passenger volume averaging 2.313 million per day, up 5.5% year-on-year, while railway passenger volume averaged 11.792 million, down 0.7% [1][10]. - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape in instant retail, particularly with the launch of the "30 Billion Free Order" campaign by Qianwen, which saw over 10 million orders in just 9 hours [2][35]. - The report identifies key players in the aviation sector, including China National Airlines, Southern Airlines, and Eastern Airlines, as well as low-cost carriers like Spring Airlines, which are expected to benefit from high price elasticity and operational efficiency [2][34]. Industry Data Tracking - Air cargo: The outbound air cargo price index at Pudong Airport increased by 5.3% week-on-week and 8.9% year-on-year as of February 2 [7][44]. - Shipping: VLCC freight rates increased by 2%, while the BDI decreased by 10% and SCFI decreased by 4% [7][48]. - The report highlights the expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3% for aircraft imports over the next three years, indicating a supply constraint in the aviation sector [31][32]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on "performance elasticity" and "dividend value" as key investment themes for the transportation sector in 2026 [7][31]. - It recommends leading companies in express logistics, such as Zhongtong and Yuantong, as well as the instant retail leader Shunfeng Tongcheng, which is expected to benefit from rapid growth and low valuation [7][31]. - The report also highlights the importance of dividend-paying assets, recommending Sichuan Chengyu and China Merchants Port for their stable performance and potential for dividend increases [7][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the aviation sector, highlighting potential opportunities in the industry [2][3]. Core Insights - The Spring Festival travel rush has begun, with air passenger volume averaging 2.313 million per day, up 5.5% year-on-year, while railway passenger volume averaged 11.792 million, down 0.7% year-on-year [1][10]. - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape in instant retail, particularly with the launch of the "30 Billion Free Order" campaign by Qianwen, which saw over 10 million orders in just 9 hours [2][35]. - The report identifies key players in the aviation sector, including China National Airlines, Southern Airlines, and Eastern Airlines, as well as low-cost carriers like Spring Airlines, which are expected to benefit from high price elasticity and operational efficiency [2][34]. Industry Data Tracking - Air freight rates at Pudong Airport increased by 5.3% week-on-week and 8.9% year-on-year as of February 2 [7][44]. - The VLCC freight rate rose by 2% week-on-week, while the BDI decreased by 10% [7][48]. - The report highlights the growth potential in the express logistics sector, particularly for leading companies like Zhongtong and Yuantong, as well as the promising outlook for instant retail leader SF Express [7][31]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on "performance elasticity" and "dividend value" as key investment themes for the transportation sector in 2026 [7][31]. - It recommends continued investment in the aviation sector due to expected low growth in aircraft supply and a projected 5% increase in passenger numbers [2][31]. - The report also emphasizes the importance of dividend assets, recommending companies like Sichuan Chengyu and China Merchants Port for their stable performance and potential for increased dividends [7][31].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of rural e-commerce in China is significantly enhancing farmers' income and promoting rural consumption, with projected growth rates of 6.7% for overall rural online retail and 9.9% for agricultural products by 2025 [2] Group 1: E-commerce Development - Rural e-commerce has established a three-tier service and logistics system at the county, township, and village levels, facilitating better access to goods and services for rural residents [2] - The integration of logistics and e-commerce is creating new opportunities for rural areas, making products more accessible and enhancing the quality of life for residents [2] Group 2: Logistics Innovations - A new model combining passenger and freight transport is being piloted in the Inner Mongolia region, allowing public transport to carry parcels, thus reducing delivery costs for courier companies [4] - The collaboration between public transport and postal services is leading to a win-win situation, where costs are lowered for courier companies while providing additional income for bus drivers [4][5] Group 3: Impact on Local Businesses - Rural supermarkets are evolving into package collection points, increasing foot traffic and sales as more residents engage in online shopping [6][7] - Local farmers are benefiting from improved logistics, allowing them to sell their products directly to consumers, thus increasing their profit margins [7] Group 4: E-commerce and Livestreaming - Livestreaming e-commerce is thriving, with local farmers using platforms to sell their products directly to consumers, significantly boosting their sales [8][9] - The county of Linyi has seen a substantial increase in e-commerce activity, with over 1,000 companies contributing to local employment and economic growth [10][11] Group 5: Government Support - Local governments are providing financial support for logistics costs, which is crucial for the sustainability of e-commerce businesses in rural areas [10][11] - Training programs for e-commerce skills are being implemented, enhancing the capabilities of local entrepreneurs and contributing to the growth of the sector [11]

Group 1 - In January, U.S. employers announced layoffs exceeding 108,000, marking a more than 100% increase year-over-year and a 205% rise month-over-month, the highest January figure since the 2009 financial crisis [1][3] - The number of new job postings dropped to approximately 5,300, the lowest level recorded by Challenger, Gray & Christmas since 2009, contradicting the previous market perception of a stable employment situation [3][6] - The transportation sector was significantly impacted by layoffs, particularly due to UPS announcing a plan to cut over 30,000 jobs, followed by Amazon's decision to lay off 16,000 corporate employees [6][9] Group 2 - Companies reported a 13% year-over-year decline in planned hiring, with a nearly 50% drop month-over-month [6] - Over 100 companies submitted large-scale layoff notices to the Department of Labor in January, indicating a strong contraction signal from the corporate sector [9] - The official unemployment data, which showed a relatively low number of initial jobless claims at 209,000, does not yet reflect the impact of the recent layoffs, suggesting a lag in official statistics [6][9]

Core Viewpoint - The Guangzhou Intellectual Property Court ruled in favor of SF Express, recognizing "SF Express" as a well-known trademark and determining that the "SF Pregnancy" car stickers sold by the defendant constituted trademark infringement due to their similarity and derogatory impact on the brand's reputation [1][4][6]. Group 1: Trademark Infringement Case - SF Express filed a lawsuit against the defendant, Shop Xiao Er, for trademark infringement after discovering the sale of "SF Pregnancy" car stickers that closely resembled its trademark [1][4]. - The defendant argued that "SF Pregnancy" was a humorous expression and should not be classified as infringement, claiming consumers purchased it for aesthetic reasons [4]. - The court found that the "SF Express" trademark had been recognized as a well-known trademark since 2010, meeting the legal criteria for such recognition [4]. Group 2: Court Ruling and Consequences - The court ruled that the "SF Pregnancy" stickers not only infringed on the trademark but also violated public morals, damaging the professional and efficient reputation of SF Express [6][9]. - The court ordered the defendant to compensate SF Express a total of 200,000 yuan for economic losses and other expenses, and to publish a statement in the media to mitigate the negative impact [6][9]. - As of now, the "SF Pregnancy" stickers are no longer available on multiple e-commerce platforms [7].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of rural e-commerce in China has established a three-tier electronic commerce service and logistics distribution system at the county, township, and village levels, significantly contributing to farmers' income and rural consumption. By 2025, the national rural online retail sales are expected to grow by 6.7% year-on-year, with agricultural product online retail sales increasing by 9.9% [7]. Group 1: Integration of Delivery and Public Transport - The integration of public transport and delivery services addresses the challenges faced by both sectors, with rural public transport companies like Xiangyu Bus Company in Inner Mongolia collaborating with private courier companies to deliver packages to remote areas [8][10]. - The new model allows for cost savings in delivery for courier companies and provides additional revenue streams for public transport, creating a win-win situation for all parties involved [10]. - By the end of 2025, the new delivery model is expected to handle an average of 4,000 packages daily across seven townships and 94 villages in the region [11]. Group 2: Rural E-commerce and Consumer Behavior - The establishment of village-level courier stations has made it easier for residents to receive and send packages, leading to an increase in online shopping among older villagers [12][13]. - Local farmers are benefiting from improved logistics, allowing them to sell their products directly to consumers, which increases their profit margins significantly [13][14]. - The integration of e-commerce with local businesses has resulted in a 30% increase in revenue for village supermarkets that also serve as courier stations [14]. Group 3: Agricultural E-commerce Growth - The rise of live-streaming e-commerce has significantly boosted sales for local farmers, with one farm reporting over 30,000 yuan in sales within half a day of live streaming [15][16]. - The county of Linyi has seen a transformation in its agricultural sector, with e-commerce contributing to a substantial increase in farmer incomes and attracting young entrepreneurs back to rural areas [16][17]. - By 2025, Linyi County aims to achieve 2.5 billion yuan in agricultural e-commerce sales, with live-streaming sales accounting for a quarter of that total [17].

Core Insights - The rapid development of rural e-commerce in China has established a three-tier electronic commerce service and logistics distribution system at the county, township, and village levels, significantly contributing to farmers' income and rural consumption growth. By 2025, the national rural online retail sales are expected to grow by 6.7%, with agricultural product online retail sales increasing by 9.9% [1]. Group 1: Rural E-commerce Development - Rural e-commerce has transformed the accessibility of goods, allowing for direct delivery to villages, enhancing the quality of life for residents [1][4]. - The integration of logistics services, such as the collaboration between public transport and courier services, has improved delivery efficiency and reduced costs for both courier companies and local transport services [3][6]. Group 2: Case Studies in Rural Areas - In Inner Mongolia, a new model combining passenger and freight services has been implemented, allowing for the delivery of parcels to remote areas, which has increased the income of local postal workers [3][4]. - In Liaoning, the establishment of village-level courier stations has facilitated the last-mile delivery of goods, encouraging more residents, including the elderly, to engage in online shopping [6][7]. - In Shanxi, the rise of live-streaming e-commerce has significantly boosted local farmers' incomes, with one farmer reporting sales exceeding 30,000 yuan in a single day through live broadcasts [8][9]. Group 3: Economic Impact and Future Prospects - The e-commerce sector in Shanxi has evolved, with over 1,000 e-commerce companies established, creating employment for over 60,000 people, and contributing to a projected 25 billion yuan in agricultural e-commerce sales by 2025 [10][11]. - Policies supporting logistics cost reductions, such as subsidies for local shipments, have been instrumental in enhancing the competitiveness of local agricultural products in broader markets [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - SF Express and SF City have launched a new end-to-end delivery service using building robots, starting operations at the Nanchang Twin Towers on February 5, focusing on solving last-mile delivery challenges in high-rise buildings [1] Group 1: Service Implementation - The service integrates delivery robots within the SF Express service center at the Twin Towers, aiming to create a one-stop living service hub that combines "intelligent delivery" and "specialized economy" [2] - The robot delivery system allows for seamless collaboration between delivery personnel and robots, enhancing delivery efficiency and user experience by autonomously completing the last 100 meters of delivery [2][3] - The service supports not only SF Express but also other courier and food delivery platforms, reducing wait times and improving operational efficiency by allowing robots to utilize elevators during off-peak hours [3] Group 2: Broader Logistics Strategy - SF City is expanding its unmanned delivery capabilities, developing a smart delivery ecosystem that includes unmanned vehicles, drones, and delivery robots for various scenarios, including medical emergencies and food delivery [4] - The collaboration between SF City and SF Express enhances last-mile delivery efficiency through shared resources and complementary services, improving the overall logistics experience [4] - The successful implementation of this robot delivery model in Nanchang serves as a reference for similar high-density spaces, with plans for expansion to more urban business districts in the future [5]

Core Viewpoint - SF Express City has launched a new end-delivery service using building robots in collaboration with SF Express, aimed at improving delivery efficiency in high-rise buildings while enhancing customer service experience [2][5]. Group 1: Service Launch and Features - The new service was first implemented in the iconic Nanchang Twin Towers, focusing on solving end-delivery challenges in high-rise buildings through a "delivery personnel + robot" collaborative model [2]. - The service integrates delivery robots within the SF Express service center in the Twin Towers, creating a one-stop living service hub that combines "intelligent delivery and specialty economy" [2]. - The robots autonomously handle the "last 100 meters" of delivery after riders drop off packages at designated stations, streamlining the delivery process [2][3]. Group 2: Efficiency and User Experience - The introduction of robot delivery services significantly enhances delivery efficiency in diverse scenarios, supporting not only SF Express but also other courier and food delivery platforms [3]. - The service eliminates the need for users to go downstairs to collect packages, reduces waiting times for elevators, and minimizes the hassle of cross-floor deliveries [3]. - Building management benefits from reduced foot traffic of delivery personnel, leading to lower management costs, while users enjoy a "contactless delivery" experience [3]. Group 3: Broader Strategic Initiatives - SF Express City is advancing the commercialization of unmanned delivery technologies, establishing a smart delivery ecosystem that includes unmanned vehicles, drones, and delivery robots across various service scenarios [4]. - The company collaborates with medical institutions for integrated blood transport and partners with local governments and restaurants to create comprehensive unmanned delivery solutions [4]. - By leveraging its high-frequency instant delivery network, SF Express City enhances the last-mile delivery capabilities of SF Express, improving service timeliness and flexibility [4].