Core Viewpoint - The cotton spinning market is entering a traditional demand off-season in June, but the easing of China-US trade relations has positively impacted textile and apparel exports, leading to a recovery in market sentiment. However, the off-season effects are deepening, with a decline in downstream fabric factory operations and reduced orders for spinning enterprises, resulting in increased inventory pressure. Therefore, cotton yarn prices are expected to fluctuate downward in June [1][6][7]. Group 1: Cotton Yarn Market Performance - In May, cotton yarn prices showed a slight upward trend, but the average price still decreased compared to April. The average price of cotton yarn was approximately 20,747 yuan/ton, down 1.84% month-on-month and 8.33% year-on-year [2]. - The cotton spinning industry chain saw improved conditions in May, with cotton prices rising significantly, providing strong support for cotton yarn prices. The average inventory days for pure cotton yarn in large-scale spinning enterprises decreased by 3 days to 29 days [2][4]. Group 2: Export Trends - In April, China's textile and apparel export value was approximately 24.19 billion USD, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.5% and a month-on-month increase of 3.4%. Textile exports were about 12.58 billion USD, up 4.4% month-on-month, while apparel exports were around 11.61 billion USD, up 2.2% month-on-month [4]. - With the easing of China-US trade relations, textile and apparel export values are expected to continue to grow in May. However, as the off-season deepens in June, demand expectations are declining, and exports may face certain tariff barriers, indirectly affecting cotton yarn demand [4][6]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Outlook - In June, the supply side is expected to see an increase in inventory for spinning enterprises, leading to a relatively loose supply situation. On the demand side, the off-season effects are deepening, with a forecasted decline in fabric factory operations and a slowdown in inventory reduction by spinning enterprises [6][7]. - Despite the anticipated slight increase in cotton prices in June, which supports the cost side of cotton yarn, the overall market sentiment remains cautious due to limited downstream demand and potential inventory pressure on spinning enterprises [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International cotton market: ICE cotton prices are under pressure to rebound. The market is still worried about demand, paying attention to the impact of the USDA May supply - demand report. Although the cotton planting progress in the US is accelerating and the drought has eased to some extent, the planting area has decreased, and future weather impacts on cotton production need to be monitored [7]. - Domestic cotton market: Domestic cotton spot prices are mainly falling. The de - stocking of downstream yarn has slowed down, and textile enterprises have insufficient motivation to purchase cotton. External demand and export demand suppress cotton prices. Technically, Zhengzhou cotton is in a weak and volatile state [7]. - Basis: The basis is expected to weaken [7]. - Spread between near and far months: The spread between near and far months is oscillating and weakening [7]. - Unilateral: It shows a low - level oscillating trend, and there is still downward pressure in the medium - term [7]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Overview - Price changes: The futures closing price of NYBOT No. 2 cotton decreased by 2.40% to 66.72; the International Cotton Index M increased by 0.27% to 75.1; the China Cotton Price Index CCIndex 3128B increased by 6.63% to 13,595; some other related price indices showed different degrees of increase or decrease. The overall trend of the international cotton market is still in a low - level oscillation, fluctuating around trade tariff events, and the market is waiting for the USDA May supply - demand report [4]. - Supply - demand factors: Globally, cotton production is expected to decline by 0.06% to 26.354 million tons, inventory is expected to increase by 0.68% to 17.1915 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to increase by 1.12% to 67.97%. In the US, weekly net cotton export sales decreased by 39.31% to 1.43 million tons. In China, production is expected to be stable, commercial inventory decreased by 14.20% to 4.1526 million tons, imports decreased by 41.67% to 7 million tons, downstream开工 decreased by 2.80% to 68%, and textile export value increased by 222.8687% to 2.418622 million US dollars [6]. Spot Market Price and Spread - Price trends: Presented the price trends of international cotton index, Chinese yarn price index, and Chinese cotton price index over a certain period [11][12][13]. - Basis: The cotton basis decreased by 18.21% to 1,172, and the yarn basis decreased by 33.33% to 1,080. Both are expected to weaken [4]. - Internal - external spread: Showed the import cotton price, internal - external cotton price spread, import yarn price, and internal - external yarn price spread [17]. International Cotton Market Supply - Demand Data - Presented the global cotton production, consumption, inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio over the years, as well as the US cotton export signing volume, shipment rate, and cumulative export volume [20][21]. Domestic Cotton Market Supply - Demand and Industrial Data - Production and demand: Showed the production and demand of Chinese cotton over the years, as well as the end - of - period inventory [23][24]. - Commercial inventory: Domestic cotton commercial inventory is in a de - stocking state, and presented the weekly and monthly values of commercial inventory [27][28]. - Import situation: Showed the annual and monthly import volumes of Chinese cotton [30]. - Spinning mill inventory and enterprise operation: Presented the inventory days of cotton and yarn in spinning mills, the starting rate of domestic textile enterprises, cotton textile profit, and the spread between Zhengzhou cotton yarn and Zhengzhou cotton [31][33][34]. - Yarn and textile imports and exports: Showed the monthly import volume of yarn and the monthly export value of textile yarns and clothing [37][38]. Exchange Rate Trends - Presented the trends of the US dollar index and the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate [41][42].