Core Insights - China's cotton industry is experiencing a significant harvest, with expectations for national cotton production to reach a new high since 2013 by 2025 due to favorable weather and effective management practices [1] - Cotton is a crucial economic crop that impacts farmers' income, rural revitalization, and the safety of the downstream textile industry [1] - The cotton industry has undergone market reforms since 1998, leading to a well-developed ecosystem that integrates futures and spot markets, but challenges such as consistency, brand development, and risk management remain [1][2] Industry Overview - Xinjiang accounts for 90% of China's cotton production, with advancements in technology and mechanization leading to yields that are approximately three times the global average [2] - The average length of Xinjiang cotton is 29 millimeters, positioning it competitively in the global market [2] - China's cotton industry demonstrates resilience and vitality, supported by a robust supply chain that connects domestic production with global textile needs [2] Future Development Directions - The future focus of the cotton industry is on quality improvement, with an emphasis on brand development, standardization, and smart agriculture [3] - A new cotton target price policy was introduced in April 2023, prioritizing quality over quantity in cotton production [3] - Establishing a mechanism for quality improvement and linking interests between cotton growers and processing enterprises is essential for enhancing cotton quality [3] - A comprehensive approach involving the entire cotton supply chain is necessary for high-quality development, including research innovation, optimal planting practices, and strong regional branding [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The cotton market is in a stalemate this week. Domestically, new cotton acquisition progresses slowly, and the global cotton supply pressure is significant while overseas demand shows no improvement. In the short term, cotton has support below and pressure above. It is recommended to go long with a light position in the short - term and mainly wait and see [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 01 Market Review US Cotton Weekly Market Review - US cotton fluctuated weakly this week. With the market pre - digesting the Fed's decision to restart interest rate cuts, the weakening dollar boosted a weak rebound in cotton futures. As of the week ending September 26, hedge funds and large speculators held a net short position of 45,420 contracts in cotton, an increase of 2,771 contracts from the previous week. Long positions were 69,367 contracts, a decrease of 751 contracts from the previous week, and short positions were 114,787 contracts, an increase of 2,020 contracts from the previous week [9]. Zhengzhou Cotton Weekly Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton rebounded slightly this week, quoted at 13,210 - 13,380 yuan/ton, with the Friday closing price at 13,335 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 10 yuan or 0.08%. As of October 17, the registered warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton were 2,653, and the forecast warehouse receipts were 183, totaling 2,836, equivalent to 119,112 tons [10]. - Since the start of the acquisition this year, the purchase price of seed cotton has shown a trend of first falling and then rising. As of now, the overall average price is lower than the same period last year. Spot trading has temporarily become dull, and textile mills maintain just - in - time procurement [13]. - The spot basis is generally stable and slightly weak, with some batches still offering slight discounts [16]. 02 Domestic Cotton Market Supply - The China Cotton Association predicts that the total cotton output in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, reaching a new high since 2013. The Xinjiang cotton region is particularly prominent, with an expected total output of about 6.911 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, accounting for 95.8% of the country's total output [19]. - The listing progress of new cotton is slower than in previous years [21]. Import - In August, China imported 73,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 51.6% and a month - on - month increase of 36.9%. Among the main source countries, Australian new cotton has become the preferred supplementary source in the market, with the import proportion increasing to 77%, and Brazil accounting for 15%. In the 2024/25 season, China's cotton imports decreased, with a total annual import of 1.053 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 67.5% [27]. Demand - Demand is lower than in previous years. Domestic demand has no obvious positive factors, and exports have slightly improved [29]. - The operating rate has declined compared to before the holiday. Due to the pressure of subsequent order connection, fabric mills mainly wait and see in raw material procurement and purchase according to orders [35]. Profit - This week, the processing profit of ginning mills is 431 - 525 yuan/ton, and the immediate profit of spinning mills is - 695.6 - - 570.1 yuan/ton, showing a decline compared to last week [38]. Inventory - As of the week ending October 17, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.4334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 278,000 tons, and 202,800 tons lower than the same period last year. At the end of September, the industrial cotton inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 845,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46,800 tons. During the handover period of the new and old seasons in September, there was a shortage of suitable raw materials, and the demand side did not improve significantly. Textile mills replenished inventory on a just - in - time basis, so the raw material inventory decreased slightly and steadily [44]. 03 International Market Global Cotton Supply and Demand - According to the latest USDA global cotton production and sales forecast in September, the global total cotton output in September was 25.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons. China's total output increased by 218,000 tons to 7.076 million tons; total consumption increased by 184,000 tons to 25.68 million tons; and the ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons [46]. US Cotton Export - Due to the US government shutdown, most USDA reports have suspended disclosure [49]. US Cotton Growth Status - Not provided in detail in the given content.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - level Sino - US trade conflict has resurfaced, which is unfavorable for cotton price increases. Fundamentally, the consumption demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season this year is weak, the operating rate of the downstream industrial chain has declined significantly compared to the same period in previous years, and there is an expectation of a bumper harvest in the new domestic cotton season, resulting in high selling hedging pressure. Overall, the fundamental situation of Zhengzhou cotton is weak, and with the impact of macro - level negative factors, it is expected that the upward space for cotton prices in the short term is relatively limited, and the market may continue to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In the overseas market, the price of US cotton futures fluctuated this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the December contract of US cotton futures was 64.29 cents per pound, up 0.52 cents per pound from the previous week, a rise of 0.82%. The spread between the December and March contracts of US cotton fluctuated, reported at - 1.5 cents per pound, up 0.23 cents per pound from the previous week. In the domestic market, the price of Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated narrowly this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 13,335 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan per ton from the previous week, a rise of 0.08%. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 14,679 yuan per ton, down 78 yuan per ton from the previous week. The basis weakened, reported at 1,328 yuan per ton, down 96 yuan per ton from the previous week. The spread between the January and May contracts of Zhengzhou cotton weakened slightly, reported at - 55 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan per ton from the previous week [9]. - **Industry Information**: In the overseas market, due to the US government shutdown, USDA data continued to be suspended. In the domestic market, according to market news, on October 16, the machine - picked cotton purchase index in Xinjiang was 6.17 yuan per kilogram, up 0.02 yuan per kilogram from the previous week. Machine - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang started large - scale picking, and the purchase price of machine - picked cotton increased. According to the latest data released by Mysteel, as of the week of October 17, the operating rate of spinning mills was 65.6%, up 0.2% week - on - week, down 7.6 percentage points from the same period last year, and down 10.22 percentage points from the average of the past five years (75.82%) [9]. - **Viewpoint and Strategy**: As mentioned in the core view, the upward space for short - term cotton prices is limited, and the market may continue to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, the basis trend of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, import profit, spreads between different months of Zhengzhou cotton, and spreads between different regions and different varieties in the international market, such as the US - Brazil spread, etc. These charts show the historical trends of various spreads from 2021 to 2025 [24][26][28]. 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - **Cotton Production**: The report shows the processing and inspection volume of Chinese cotton and the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton through charts, reflecting the production situation of domestic cotton [38][39]. - **Import Volume**: Charts show the monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of Chinese cotton, the import volume of US cotton to China, and the import volume of cotton yarn, reflecting the import situation of the domestic cotton market [40][41][45]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills are presented through charts, showing the operating conditions of the downstream industry [48][49]. - **Sales Progress**: The national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City are shown through charts, reflecting the sales situation of domestic cotton [50][51]. - **Inventory**: The weekly commercial inventory of Chinese cotton, the combined monthly inventory of commercial and industrial cotton, as well as the raw material and finished - product inventories of spinning mills are presented through charts, reflecting the inventory situation of the domestic cotton market [53][54][55]. 3.4 International Market Situation - **US Situation**: The report shows the planting area without drought, the excellent - good rate, production, output, planting area, export signing progress, export shipment volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - consumption ratio of US cotton through various charts, comprehensively reflecting the situation of the US cotton market [59][60][61]. - **Brazilian Situation**: Charts show the planting area, output, export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - consumption ratio of Brazilian cotton, reflecting the situation of the Brazilian cotton market [72][73][75]. - **Indian Situation**: The planting area, output, consumption, and import - export volume, as well as supply surplus/shortage and inventory - consumption ratio of Indian cotton are presented through charts, showing the situation of the Indian cotton market [80][81][83].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton is likely to continue its oscillating trend in the short - term, with support around 13,000 yuan/ton and resistance around 13,500 yuan/ton. Internationally, U.S. cotton remains weak due to Sino - U.S. tensions but has some buying support at low levels and is also boosted by the weak dollar [57]. - The recommended trading strategy is short - term trading [58]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: Zhengzhou cotton futures rebounded slightly this week with a weekly increase of 0.08%, while ICE cotton futures declined and then recovered, with a weekly decrease of 0.1% [11]. - **Spot Prices**: This week, the cotton price index dropped. The 3128 index fell by 75 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the 2129 index dropped by 96 yuan/ton [16]. - **Import Situation**: In August, 70,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons [21]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of the first half of September, the commercial cotton inventory was 1.1759 million tons, a decrease of 305,800 tons from the second half of August [22]. - **Downstream Inventory**: In August, the yarn inventory was 26.58 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.35 days, and the grey cloth inventory was 33.87 days, a year - on - year increase of 4.11 days [29]. - **Yarn Prices**: This week, yarn prices fell. The price of rotor - spun 10 - count cotton yarn decreased by 15 yuan/ton, the price of carded 32 - count cotton yarn decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the price of combed 40 - count cotton yarn decreased by 20 yuan/ton compared to last week [34]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Forecasts**: This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 134. There were 2,724 warehouse receipts and 112 valid forecasts, totaling 2,836 [40]. - **Seed Cotton Purchase**: The purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang increased slightly compared to last week [46]. - **U.S. Cotton Exports**: As of September 11, the net export sales of U.S. upland cotton in the current year increased by 186,100 bales, and the net export sales in the next year were 19,000 bales [48][51]. - **U.S. Weather**: The total area in drought (D1 - D4) in the U.S. accounted for 34.2% [54]. 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou cotton maintained a low - level oscillating trend this week. Seed cotton purchase prices rose, but the quality and lint percentage in northern Xinjiang declined. The "Golden September and Silver October" season is ending, and downstream orders are insufficient, so Zhengzhou cotton is likely to continue oscillating [57]. - **International Market**: The U.S. government shutdown led to data suspension, and Sino - U.S. relations became the focus. Tensions between the two countries suppressed U.S. cotton, but there was buying support at low levels and the weak dollar provided some boost [57].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Cotton shows a slight rebound [1] - The trend strength of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2601 closed at 13,320 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.38% and a night - session close of 13,340 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.15% (or 0.08%, data conflict). Trading volume was 225,712 hands, a decrease of 21,471 hands from the previous day, and the open interest was 877,562 hands, an increase of 5,323 hands [1]. - CY2601 closed at 19,405 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.41% and a night - session close of 19,420 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 9,778 hands, a decrease of 1,999 hands from the previous day, and the open interest was 18,884 hands, an increase of 1,045 hands [1]. - ICE Cotton No.12 closed at 63.78 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.08% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts were 2,724, a decrease of 49 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 112, an increase of 16 [1]. - Cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 0, unchanged from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 6, a decrease of 6 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: - Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was priced at 14,457 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton (0.35%) from the previous day [1]. - Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was priced at 14,305 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton (0.35%) from the previous day [1]. - Shandong spot price was 14,676 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - Hebei spot price was 14,608 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton (- 0.06%) from the previous day [1]. - The 3128B index was 14,664 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton (- 0.07%) from the previous day [1]. - The international cotton index M (CNCottonM) was 71.58 cents/pound, an increase of 0.4 cents/pound (0.56%) from the previous day [1]. - Pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count was priced at 20,440 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The arrival price of pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 21,228 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton (0.02%) from the previous day [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The CF1 - 5 spread was - 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,140 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading has slightly weakened. Spinning mills maintain just - in - time procurement. Spot basis is generally stable with a slight downward trend, and some batches still offer slight discounts. The mainstream purchase price of 40% lint percentage machine - picked seed cotton in Northern Xinjiang is stable at 6.0 - 6.1 yuan/kg, with some higher offers around 6.2 yuan/kg [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading atmosphere in the pure cotton yarn market is light, and prices are mainly stable. Low - priced products are selling well. Recently, traders are actively purchasing Xinjiang cotton yarn, while fabric mills are cautious in purchasing, mainly for just - in - time needs. Downstream overall purchasing is low, and the market continues to operate weakly [2]. - **US Cotton**: Yesterday, ICE cotton futures first declined and then rose, mainly fluctuating within the day, and closed slightly lower. The weakening of the US dollar and commercial buying slightly supported ICE cotton [2]

据悉，新疆沙雅县位于塔里木盆地边缘，是阿克苏地区棉花种植大县，也是全疆棉花的主产区之一。 沙雅县红旗镇栏杆村的棉花种植大户邵永康说："今天一大早他就把棉花运到收购点交售，今年我在农 行贷款200万元的支持下，扩大了棉花种植面积有1700多亩，得益于科学管理和高效节水滴灌技术，棉 花喜获丰收，价格也不错，我们心里很高兴。" 多年来，农行沙雅县支行立足区位和资源禀赋优势，大力支持当地棉花种植、棉花收购加工等，不断 提升金融服务水平，为棉农种植、收购企业提供有力的融资支持，助力棉花增产、农业增效和农民致 富。 截至9月末，该支行农户贷款余额4.6亿元，该支行已准入4家棉花收购企业，现已投放棉花收购贷款2.2 亿元，支持收购企业加快棉花加工生产，使更多优质棉走向更广阔的市场，也为企业发展按下了"加速 键"。 沙雅富力棉花有限责任公司是沙雅县主要从事籽棉收购，皮棉加工与销售的企业。 据该公司负责人金红卫介绍，该公司成立伊始就与农行一直合作，目前农行给公司授信达2.5亿元，解 决了公司棉花收购资金的难题，按照棉花收购进度，目前已投放贷款8000万元，保证棉农当日收购， 当日结算，当日打钱，让棉农交上"放心棉"、拿到"满意 ...

Report Investment Rating The provided text does not mention the investment rating for the cotton industry. Core Viewpoints - International market: The continuous absence of the Chinese import market has led to weak export demand for US cotton. The large number of unpriced buy orders at historical highs on the ICE market suppresses cotton price increases. In the short - to - medium term, ICE cotton prices are restricted. Although there is an expectation of improving the global inventory - to - sales ratio in the 2025/26 season, the upward push on cotton prices from a slight year - on - year production cut is limited without sufficient consumption support. Considering the relatively low price level and mainstream cost estimates, the downside space is limited, and there is a long - term expectation of a slight improvement in the price center, subject to external macro - factors [3][80]. - Domestic market: In Q4, cotton prices are not optimistic, but caution is needed regarding the downside space. The record - high domestic new cotton production, early inspection and listing progress, weak "scrambling to purchase" sentiment in Xinjiang, and cooling of foreign trade "rush to export" all limit cotton prices in the short term. However, in the long run, low commercial inventories and potential restocking demand from downstream textile enterprises and the US clothing market may drive cotton prices to "decline first and then rise," but the improvement in the price center may be conservative, and new - year industrial policies and foreign trade conditions need to be monitored [3][81]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Review of the Cotton Market in the First Three Quarters - Domestic market: In the first half of 2025, cotton prices showed a weakening trend due to loose supply and demand. The price was affected by Sino - US trade frictions. In the third quarter, prices fluctuated in a large range. Currently, the large supply of new - season cotton and weak downstream demand have led to a continuous decline in prices [9]. - International market: In the first three quarters of 2025, prices fluctuated between 60 - 70 cents per pound, with the amplitude affected by Sino - US trade wars. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern persisted, and the large number of unpriced buy orders on the ICE market suppressed prices [10]. Chapter 2: Analysis of the Global Cotton Market Supply and Demand 2.1 Global Supply and Demand Situation - According to the USDA September report, the global cotton inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to be 61.6%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%. Global cotton production is expected to be 25.62 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 340,000 tons. Consumption is expected to be 25.87 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 180,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 70,000 tons. Total trade volume is expected to be 9.52 million tons. The global ending inventory is expected to be 15.93 million tons, a four - year low [11][12][13]. - In terms of adjustment expectations, the possibility of a production cut in the 2025/26 global cotton output is low, and it may still see a slight increase. Cotton consumption is positively correlated with global GDP growth, but there is high uncertainty due to factors such as the global economic slowdown and Sino - US trade frictions [17][18]. 2.2 US Market Supply and Demand Situation - As of September 22, the overall good - quality rate of US cotton plants dropped to 47%, the boll - opening rate was 60%, and the harvesting progress reached 12%. The 2025 US cotton production is expected to be between 2.85 - 3 million tons [24]. - As of September 2025, the cumulative contracted export volume of US cotton for the 2025/2026 season was 925,000 tons, with a slow signing progress. However, there is still some elasticity in exports [27]. 2.3 Brazilian Market Supply and Demand Situation - Brazil's new cotton harvest is almost complete. The 2024/25 (corresponding to USDA's 2025/26) cotton production is expected to be 3.935 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. The export expectation is as high as 3.11 million tons, but the export volume in August 2025 was lower than in previous years [30]. Chapter 3: Domestic Cotton Market Supply and Demand 3.1 China's Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to the Agricultural Rural Ministry and USDA data, there is a clear expectation of a bumper harvest in China's new cotton season in 2025/26. There is a view that consumption will weaken year - on - year. There are differences in the ending inventory expectations between the two institutions, but both expect a narrowing of the supply - demand gap compared to previous years [32][33]. 3.2 New - Season Planting - The new - season cotton production in Xinjiang is expected to increase by 516,000 tons to 7.415 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. The national harvest progress as of the end of September was 1.5%, slightly faster than the same period last year. The large - scale harvest is expected to start in early October, and the peak listing time is postponed to late October. The expected opening price of seed cotton is low due to factors such as strong harvest expectations, low cottonseed prices, and weak "scrambling to purchase" sentiment [36][39]. 3.3 Import Scale - In August 2025, China imported about 70,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 40%. From January to August, the total import volume was about 590,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 72.6%. The total import volume of cotton resources from January to August was only 44.76% of the same period in 2024. Future imports are expected to increase slightly but will still be limited [42][43]. 3.4 Raw Material and Finished - Product Inventories - As of the end of September, the national commercial cotton inventory decreased to 1.2718 million tons, and the Xinjiang commercial inventory decreased to 649,800 tons. The total industrial and commercial inventory was 2.1481 million tons, and the warehouse receipt quantity was about 120,000 tons, all lower than the same period last year. The inventory of downstream finished products is slightly lower than the same period, and enterprises have no obvious intention to stockpile [50][53]. 3.5 Downstream Startup and Order Situation - As of September 30, the spinning mill startup rate was 66.6%, and the weaving mill startup rate was 37.8%, both lower than the same period last year. The order days of spinning enterprises were 15.42 days, also lower than the same period. Spinning profits vary greatly across varieties and enterprises, and the clothing and textile industry is facing intensified losses [56][57]. 3.6 Domestic Retail and Regional Transactions - In August, the retail sales of clothing - related enterprises showed a mild recovery, but the growth rate was lower than that of gold and silver jewelry and the overall social retail level. The transaction volume of cotton cloth in the light - textile market increased seasonally but was lower than the same period last year [61][62]. 3.7 Clothing and Textile Exports - From January to August 2025, the cumulative export of textile and clothing decreased by 0.2%. In August, exports decreased by 5%. Exports to the US, EU, and ASEAN showed different trends. The US clothing market started to restock slightly in the second half of the year, and there is still restocking space subject to Sino - US trade policies [68][72][76]. 3.8 Competitor Prices - The price difference between cotton yarn and staple fiber is at a medium - to - low level and shows a weak trend. The cotton market does not follow the chemical fiber market closely. In the long run, chemical fiber raw materials will continue to replace cotton [78]. Chapter 4: Market Outlook - International market: Short - to - medium - term ICE cotton prices are restricted, with limited downside space and a long - term expectation of a slight improvement in the price center [80]. - Domestic market: Cotton prices are under pressure in Q4 but may "decline first and then rise" in the long run, with conservative expectations for the improvement in the price center [81].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton has been weak in the past two weeks, hitting a new low since early April. Domestic cotton futures have slightly stabilized due to the stabilization of Xinjiang seed - cotton prices. New cotton's high - yield pressure has been digested to some extent, and cotton futures may enter a short - term oscillatory trend. Attention should be paid to seed - cotton transaction prices and external market impacts on cotton futures [1][2][19] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data | Variety | Opening Price | High | Low | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Volume (Lots) | Volume Change (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | Open Interest Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Continuous | 65.36 | 65.56 | 63.26 | 63.77 | - 1.53 | - 2.34 | 125346 | - 12893 | 169783 | 940 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Continuous | 13180 | 13420 | 13180 | 13325 | 110 | 0.83 | 594023 | 33358 | 554900 | 19446 | | Cotton Yarn Continuous | 19290 | 19435 | 19430 | 19375 | 55 | 0.28 | 14474 | - 9897 | 9913 | 6005 | [5] 2. Fundamental Analysis International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton has been in a narrow - range decline, affected by weak fundamentals (large pressure from new US cotton listings, poor US cotton exports, and weak global demand) and negative external factors (strong US dollar, weak crude oil, and a grim international economic and trade situation) [6] - US government shutdown has led to the suspension of weekly US cotton export sales data [7] - India: The new - year CCI cotton purchase is about to start, with different start times in different states. The minimum support price of S - 6 this year is 8% higher than last year. As of this week, the sales volume is 8.9 million bales, and the inventory is 1.1 million bales [8] - Brazil: Cotton exports slightly rebounded in September, with 178,800 tons exported, a 31% month - on - month increase. China is the main export destination in September [8] - Australia: Cotton exports remained strong in August, with an estimated output of about 910,000 tons this season. As of October 8, reservoir storage in the Murray - Darling Basin was 70% of the total capacity [9] - Pakistan: Cotton import demand remains average, with an estimated output of 6 - 6.5 million bales. Most spinning mills focus on domestic cotton, and few are willing to make advance purchases [9] - Bangladesh: Inquiries are mainly for low - priced Brazilian cotton. Although new import inquiries have emerged due to the decline in US cotton futures prices, overall downstream demand is still weak. In September, clothing export revenue declined for the second consecutive month [10][11] - Southeast Asian textile industry: As of the week of October 10, the operating rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 69%, 63%, and 65% respectively [11] Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton spot trading is light, and seed - cotton prices have stabilized. Spot prices have slightly declined, and spinning mills mainly make just - in - time purchases. New cotton processing is increasing, and the supply of 2025/26 new cotton in inland warehouses is gradually rising [12] - Seed - cotton purchase: During the National Day holiday, the purchase price of machine - picked seed cotton first fell and then rose. As of October 9, the mainstream purchase price was 6.1 - 6.25 yuan/kg [13] - Cotton warehouse receipts: As of October 10, there were 2942 registered first - grade cotton warehouse receipts and 28 pending warehouse receipts, totaling 2970, equivalent to 124,740 tons [13] - Spinning mills are in a slightly better situation than weaving mills. After the holiday, the cotton yarn market has improved slightly, but overall confidence is still insufficient. The cotton fabric market is weak, with few orders and low production and sales rates [14] 3. Basic Data Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including data on Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory, spinning mill cotton inventory, and other aspects [16][17][18] 4. Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton futures have broken through the low point in early April, with a very weak overall trend. In the short term, it is greatly affected by the external market and can only rely on price decline to stimulate demand [19] - Domestic cotton futures have slightly stabilized. The pressure of new cotton high - yield has been digested to some extent. In the short term, they may enter an oscillatory trend. Attention should be paid to seed - cotton transaction prices and external market impacts [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, although the cottonseed price has rebounded and the decline of cotton price has slowed down, the upcoming concentrated listing of new cotton will relieve the low inventory situation, and with the weakening downstream demand, the upward drive of cotton price is insufficient. In the long - term, due to the expansion of domestic textile production capacity and relatively low import quotas, the supply - demand of cotton in the new year may still be tight [1][4][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - In late September, adverse weather in Xinjiang delayed the cotton picking. After the National Day holiday, the machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang started to be purchased. The purchase price first decreased and then increased with small fluctuations. In mid - and late October, the concentrated listing of new cotton will put pressure on cotton prices. The downstream peak season is weakening, and the cotton price rebound power is poor. In the long - term, domestic cotton supply - demand may still be tight due to import quota limitations [1][4][17] 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - The trend of cotton is expected to be in a wide - range shock, with the CF2601 fluctuating between 13,000 - 13,600. It is recommended to short on rebounds. The short - term basis is stable and may weaken later. Pay attention to the CF1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [23] 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range forecast for cotton in the near future: 13,000 - 13,600. For inventory management, when inventory is high, short Zhengzhou cotton futures and sell call options. For procurement management, when inventory is low, buy Zhengzhou cotton futures and sell put options [21] 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Futures: Zhengzhou cotton 01 closed at 13,325, down 205 (- 1.52%); 05 closed at 13,375, down 160 (- 1.18%); 09 closed at 13,550, down 160 (- 1.17%). Spot: CC Index 3128B was 14,775, up 22 (0.15%); 2227B was 12,932, up 21 (0.16%); 2129B was 15,039, up 28 (0.19%). Spinning yarn: futures price was 19,375, down 405 (- 2.05%); spot price was 20,460, down 120 (- 0.58%) [22][24] 3.2 This Week's Important Information 3.2.1 Bullish Information - As of September 26, the national new cotton picking progress was 1.5%, up 0.2 percentage points year - on - year; the delivery rate was 26%, up 10.3 percentage points year - on - year; the processing rate was 22%, down 0.8 percentage points year - on - year. On October 8, the purchase index of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang increased by 0.02 yuan/kg [25] 3.2.2 Bearish Information - In 2025, Brazil's cotton planting area is expected to be 2.14 million hectares, up 7.5% year - on - year; the total output is expected to be 3.96 million tons, up 7.0% year - on - year [26] 3.2.3 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Pay attention to the purchase price of machine - picked cotton and the output determination in Xinjiang, as well as the release of the USDA report, the growth and export of US cotton [27] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - After the National Day holiday, funds flowed back. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton increased in positions and price on the first trading day after the holiday, but the upward pressure was large due to hedging by some ginneries, and the rebound was weak [31] 3.3.2 Month - spread Structure - The current cotton month - spread shows a contango structure. Near - month contracts are weak due to supply increase and hedging pressure, while far - month contracts are expected to have tight supply - demand at the end of the year [34] 3.3.3 Basis Structure - This week, the cotton basis was stable as new cotton had not been fully supplied. On October 10, the basis of new machine - picked cotton in different regions of Xinjiang was in a certain range [38] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Downstream Spinning Profit Tracking - Supported by policies and technology, Xinjiang's spinning mills have cost advantages and profits. Before the National Day, domestic spinning mills' profits improved. Recently, Xinjiang mills still have good profits, while those in the inland have slightly declined [40] 3.4.2 Import Profit Tracking - This year, China's cotton import profit has been high, but import quotas are tight. The additional 200,000 - ton quota has limited impact on the market, and the current import profit is still at a relatively high level [43] 3.5 Supply and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The new - year Xinjiang cotton is expected to have a good harvest, but the output increase may narrow. The estimated import volume is 1.1 million tons. Domestic consumption is not overly pessimistic, with stable domestic demand and uncertain foreign sales [46][47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the price of Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) is more likely to be weak, with the lower cost support estimated to be around 12,860 - 13,130 yuan/ton based on current machine - picked seed cotton and cottonseed prices [9][10] - The consumption demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season this year is weak, and the operating rates of the downstream industrial chain are significantly lower than in previous years. There is also an expectation of a bumper harvest in the new domestic cotton year, leading to high selling hedging pressure. For the outer market, due to the U.S. government shutdown, USDA data release is suspended, but according to the latest available data, the export pressure of U.S. cotton is relatively high [9] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review** - Outer market: In September, the price of U.S. cotton futures fluctuated and declined. As of September 30, the closing price of the December contract of U.S. cotton futures was 65.72 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.81 cents/pound or 1.22% from the previous month. The spread between December and March contracts of U.S. cotton fluctuated, reporting - 1.8 cents/pound, an increase of 0.1 cents/pound from the previous month [9] - Domestic market: In September, the price of Zhengzhou cotton declined. As of September 30, the closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 13,215 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,025 yuan/ton or 7.2% from the previous month. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 14,862 yuan/ton, a decrease of 466 yuan/ton from the previous month. The basis strengthened, reporting 1,643 yuan/ton, an increase of 515 yuan/ton from the previous month. The spread between January and May contracts of Zhengzhou cotton weakened slightly, reporting - 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton from the previous month [9] - **Industry Information** - Outer market: Due to the U.S. government shutdown, USDA data release is suspended [9] - Domestic market: On October 8, the purchase price of machine - picked seed cotton in Xinjiang was 6 - 6.25 yuan/kg, and the price of cottonseed was 2,100 - 2,200 yuan/ton. As of the week of October 3, the operating rate of spinning mills was 66%, 6.4 percentage points lower than the same period last year and 9.46 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years; the operating rate of weaving mills was 37.7%, 15.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year and 15.66 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years. The weekly commercial inventory of cotton was 980,000 tons, 550,000 tons less than the same period last year and 390,000 tons less than the five - year average [9] 3.2 Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, Zhengzhou cotton basis, import profit, Zhengzhou cotton monthly spreads, and U.S. cotton contract spreads, which can be used to analyze price differences and market trends [26][28][30] 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - **Production and Import** - Domestic cotton production is presented through the processing and inspection quantity and total processing volume charts [39] - China's monthly and annual cumulative cotton import volumes are shown, as well as the monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of cotton yarn [41][46] - The cumulative and weekly export contract volumes of U.S. cotton to China are also provided [44] - **Downstream Operations and Sales** - The operating rates of spinning and weaving mills are analyzed, showing a decline compared to previous years [49] - The national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City are presented [51] - **Inventory** - The weekly commercial inventory of cotton and the combined commercial and industrial monthly inventory are provided [54] - The raw material and finished - product inventories of spinning mills are also shown [56] 3.4 International Market Situation - **United States** - The planting situation is reflected by the proportion of non - drought - affected planting areas and the excellent - good rate [60] - The production situation is shown through the bi - weekly and cumulative processing volumes [62] - The production forecast and planting area are presented [65] - The export contract progress, export shipment volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are analyzed [68][70][71] - **Brazil** - The planting area, production, export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are provided [73][76][78] - **India** - The planting area, production, consumption, import and export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are analyzed [81][84][86]