交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年4月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 棉花现货市场价 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：中美互加大额关税。3月纺织业景气指数回升至52.47%荣枯线上方。 USDA:4月消费调低，库存增加，略偏空。ICAC:4月报预测环比上月增加产量，消费不 变，期末库存略增，略偏空。海关：3月纺织品服装出口同比增12.4%。1-2月份我国棉 花进口15万吨，同比减少56.8%；棉纱进口21万吨，同比减少12.3%。农村部4月24/25 年度：产量616万吨，进口150万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存831万吨。偏空。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14210，基差1300（09合约） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is currently in a complex situation. The fundamental factors are generally bearish, with factors such as Sino - US tariff increases, increased inventory, and adjusted consumption predictions. However, the basis is bullish, and the current position of cotton is not suitable for chasing short positions. The 09 contract is expected to consolidate in the range of 12,700 - 13,000 in the short term [4]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 (Previous Day Review) No relevant content provided. 2.每日提示 (Daily Tips) - The textile industry's prosperity index rebounded above the 52.47% boom - bust line in March. In April, USDA lowered consumption and increased inventory, and ICAC predicted a slight increase in production, unchanged consumption, and a slight increase in ending inventory. Textile and clothing exports increased by 12.4% year - on - year in March. From January to February, China's cotton imports were 150,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 56.8%, and cotton yarn imports were 210,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.3%. The Ministry of Agriculture predicted a production of 6.16 million tons, imports of 1.5 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.31 million tons for the 24/25 season [4]. - The basis of spot 3128b with a national average price of 14,252 has a basis of 1422 (09 contract), showing a premium over futures [4]. - The expected ending inventory for the 24/25 season in April by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is 8.31 million tons [4]. - The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average [4]. - The main positions are bearish, with net short positions decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - Sino - US tariff increases have little significance for further tariff hikes, and the fact of comprehensive trade decoupling is established. The traditional "Golden March and Silver April" peak sales season for domestic cotton is coming to an end, and the market is generally quiet. The significant increase in textile and clothing exports in March was mainly due to pre - tariff - increase exports, not an improvement in the foreign trade market [4]. 3.今日关注 (Today's Focus) No relevant content provided. 4.基本面数据 (Fundamental Data) - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In 2024/25 (April), the total global cotton production was 26.321 million tons, with a monthly adjustment of - 150,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 7% (1.722 million tons). Total consumption was 25.261 million tons, with a monthly adjustment of - 114,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1% (266,000 tons) [8]. - **China Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: For the 2024/25 season (April prediction), the initial inventory was 8.28 million tons, production was 6.16 million tons, imports were 1.5 million tons, consumption was 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory was 8.31 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B was in the range of 15,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index was in the range of 75 - 100 cents/pound [16]. 5.持仓数据 (Position Data) No relevant content provided.

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core View - In the context of tariff frictions, the overall driving force is weak, and cotton prices are expected to remain weak [30]. Summary by Directory International Cotton Market Analysis - In the 2024/25 season, the global supply is generally loose. The global cotton production is estimated to increase to 26.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.74 million tons, mainly due to a significant increase in China's cotton production. The global cotton consumption is 25.41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 490,000 tons, mainly due to the obvious increase in cotton consumption in countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Thailand. The global cotton ending inventory in the 2024/25 season is expected to decrease by 20,000 tons from the previous month's estimate, and increase by 910,000 tons year - on - year [2]. - The supply of US cotton is loose, but there is an expectation of a decline in the future planting area. The 2024/25 US cotton production is expected to be 3.14 million tons, with little change from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 510,000 tons. The ending inventory is expected to be 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 tons. In March 2025, the estimated cotton planting area in the US is 9.867 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 12% [5]. Domestic Cotton Fundamentals - China's cotton production in 2024 exceeded expectations. The single - yield reached a record high of 2,171.6 kg/ha, a year - on - year increase of about 7.8%. The total national production is estimated to be 6.84 million tons. It is expected that the cotton planting area in China will increase by 0.8% in 2025, but the single - yield may decline, and the production will also decrease year - on - year [8]. - As of the end of February 2025, China's national cotton commercial inventory was 5.51 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 140,000 tons, and the industrial inventory was 930,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. Both inventories are at the highest level in the same period of history [10][11]. - As of the end of February 2025, the yarn inventory of domestic textile enterprises was 22.32 days, an increase of 0.6 days from the previous month and 3.6 days year - on - year. The grey fabric inventory was 29.43 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous month and an increase of 2.2 days year - on - year [15]. China's Textile and Apparel Demand - According to customs data, from January to February 2025, China's textile and apparel exports decreased by 4.5% year - on - year. The US has imposed high - tariff policies on China, and China has also counter - imposed tariffs. China's textile exports are expected to decline by about 10% [19]. - From January to February 2025, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles in China increased by 3.3% year - on - year, but the growth rate is still low [22]. Cost and Profit - The current domestic spot yarn - cotton price difference is around 6,200 yuan/ton, at a historically low level. In 2024, the yarn - cotton price difference was in the range of 6,000 - 6,600 yuan/ton, and downstream textile enterprises suffered large losses for a long time [26]. - The purchase price of seed cotton this season is 6.3 yuan/kg, and the corresponding cotton cost is around 14,500 - 15,000 yuan/ton, and the futures market has been at a discount [28]. Trading Logic - From the perspective of the USDA balance sheet, the world is in a stocking cycle in the 2024/25 season, which is a medium - and long - term negative factor for cotton prices. Globally, Brazilian cotton has the lowest cost, about 60 cents. In a period of oversupply, global cotton prices may approach the Brazilian planting cost. However, the expected 12% decrease in the US planting area in the new season will also affect cotton prices [29]. - Domestically, the current supply far exceeds expectations, industrial and commercial inventories are at a high level, downstream yarn and grey fabric inventories are also high, and downstream profits are low. In terms of demand, the US high - tariff policy on China and China's counter - measures will have a long - term impact on cotton demand, and China's textile exports are expected to decline further [29].