Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The international cotton price maintains a weak consolidation trend due to factors such as the continuous loosening of global cotton supply - demand and weak export demand for US cotton. The market sentiment is low because of the Sino - US tariff negotiation. - In the domestic market, although the commercial cotton inventory is de - stocking well, it is still at a high level. With the high possibility of a new cotton bumper harvest this year and the weak demand, the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton is limited. [16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 rose 0.66%, closing at 13,675 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Affected by factors such as the extension of Sino - US tariff measures and the expectation of a bumper harvest, the US cotton fell 1.19% overnight, closing at 66.42 cents/pound on ICE. [2] 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - As of July 30, 2025, the total number of cotton warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 9,032 (-123), including 8,684 (-123) registered warehouse receipts and 348 (+0) valid forecasts. - As of July 31, 2025, the national new cotton picking and delivery were basically completed. The national processing rate was 100%, the same as the previous year and the average of the past four years. The national sales rate was 97.1%, 7.3 percentage points higher than the previous year and 8.3 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years. The cumulative sales of lint cotton were 6.483 million tons, an increase of 1.181 million tons compared with the previous year and 1.05 million tons compared with the average of the past four years. - Argentina's main cotton - producing area, Chaco Province, has completed the new cotton harvest, with the national harvest progress reaching 90% and the processing progress reaching 80%. - As of the week ending July 29, cotton speculators' net short positions increased by 1,467 lots to 52,972 lots. - As of July 24, 2025, the cumulative net signed export of US cotton in the 2024/25 season was 2.783 million tons, reaching 108.35% of the annual expected export volume, and the cumulative shipment was 2.593 million tons, with a shipment rate of 93.17%. [3][4][5] 3.3 Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton and yarn import profits, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions. [7][10][14][15] 3.4 Analysis and Strategy - Internationally, the US unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.2% in July, and the labor participation rate continued to decline. The "pseudo - unemployment" phenomenon may delay the Fed's policy shift. Although the GDP increased by 3% in the second quarter, the deterioration of the employment market has made investors bet on the Fed to start a cycle of interest rate cuts in advance. - The international cotton price maintains a weak consolidation trend due to factors such as the continuous loosening of global cotton supply - demand and weak export demand for US cotton. The Sino - US tariff negotiation has reduced market enthusiasm. - Domestically, the commercial cotton inventory is de - stocking well but still at a high level. With the high possibility of a new cotton bumper harvest and weak demand, the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton is limited. [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillation", indicating that the short - term demand is average and the supply is in a loose pattern, and the market may fluctuate within a range [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the cotton market from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It points out that the supply is bearish as the shortage of old - crop inventory is gradually priced in while the weak reality of new - crop bumper harvest is not. The demand is neutral due to over - capacity in spinning and high operating rates. The overall view is that the market will oscillate in the short term [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bearish. The shortage of old - crop inventory is gradually priced in, and the weak reality of new - crop bumper harvest is not yet priced in [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. Spinning over - capacity and high operating rates lead to strong industrial demand for cotton [3] - **Inventory**: Neutral. The national commercial inventory is being depleted rapidly, and the national industrial inventory remains at a high level [3] - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. This week, the basis of Zhengzhou cotton oscillated, with the basis of Xinjiang Shuang 28 spot at 1000 - 1200. The spread between September and January contracts of Zhengzhou cotton strengthened continuously this week [3] - **Profit**: Bearish. Spinning in Xinjiang has a slight loss, and spinning in the inland has a serious loss. The spread between yarn and cotton prices is running at a low level [3] - **Valuation**: Neutral. The current absolute price is at a neutral level in the past four years [3] - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral. Domestically, the increasing domestic demand policies are beneficial for supporting the long - term demand for domestic cotton, which is bullish for far - month contracts. Internationally, Sino - US trade negotiations are in a short - term deadlock, and the tariff exemption period is extended again, which is bearish in terms of sentiment [3] - **Investment View**: Oscillation. Short - term demand is average, and supply is in a loose pattern, so the market may fluctuate within a range [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Lightly short the CF01 contract; Arbitrage: Reverse spread between CF1 - 5 contracts [3] 3.2 Cotton Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Upstream Planting - **Area Forecast**: The forecast shows an increase in cotton - planting area. The first survey in 2025 shows that the national cotton - planting area is expected to be 4159.9 million mu, with a year - on - year increase of 1.88%, and the area in Xinjiang is expected to be 3678.8 million mu, with a year - on - year increase of 3.18% [5][8][9] - **Yield per Unit Area**: The report provides historical data on cotton yield per unit area in the whole country and Xinjiang from 2013 to 2025. For example, in 2025, the national yield per unit area is expected to be 149.9 kg/mu, and that in Xinjiang is expected to be 158.5 kg/mu [10] 3.2.2 Mid - stream Situation - **Inventory**: There is inventory accumulation of finished products. The raw material and finished - product inventories of yarn mills and weaving mills are presented in the form of historical data of multiple years [18][19] - **Factory Load**: The operating rate is declining. The loads of pure - cotton yarn mills and all - cotton grey fabric mills are shown in historical data of multiple years [25][26] - **Yarn Mill Profit**: There are losses. The immediate spinning profit and the spot spread between yarn and cotton are presented in historical data of multiple years [29][30] 3.2.3 Downstream Situation - **Inventory**: At a seasonal high. The inventories and finished - product inventories of textile and clothing enterprises above designated size are presented in historical data of multiple years [32][33] 3.2.4 Import and Export Situation - **Domestic Import**: The report shows historical data on the monthly and cumulative imports of domestic cotton and cotton yarn from 2018 to 2025 [37] - **US Cotton Export** - **Overall**: The signing volume is at the lowest in recent years, and the shipment is seasonally increasing [39] - **To China**: Significantly decreased year - on - year, at a low level in the same period [48] - **To Pakistan**: Significantly increased year - on - year, at a high level in the same period [54] - **To Vietnam**: The signing and shipment volumes have significantly increased year - on - year [60] - **To Bangladesh**: The shipment volume has decreased year - on - year [67] 3.3 Cotton Capital - related Data - **Zhengzhou Cotton Basis**: Oscillating at a high level. The basis of Zhengzhou cotton 09 and 01 contracts is presented in historical data of multiple years [73][74] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Spread**: The spreads between Zhengzhou cotton 09 - 01 and 01 - 05 contracts are presented in historical data of multiple years [77] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Position**: The position of the 09 contract has declined rapidly. The positions of Zhengzhou cotton 09 and 01 contracts are presented in historical data of multiple years [79][80] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipt**: The virtual - to - real ratio of the 09 contract has declined rapidly. The total number of warehouse receipts and forecasts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the 09 contract are presented in historical data of multiple years [84][85] - **Management Fund's Net Long Position in US Cotton Futures**: The net long positions and the proportion of long positions of management funds in US cotton futures and options are presented in historical data of multiple years [91][92] - **US Cotton Spread**: In a deep contango state. The spreads between US cotton 05 - 07 and 07 - 12 contracts are presented in historical data of multiple years [95][96]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, Zhengzhou cotton prices first rose and then fell. As of July 31, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 closed at 13,650 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton for the month, a decrease of 0.66%. The main contract of cotton yarn closed at 19,770 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan/ton for the month, a decrease of 1.10%. The main contract of US cotton closed at 67.22 cents/pound, down 0.82 cents/pound for the month, a decrease of 1.21% [4]. - The low - inventory logic of the 09 contract has ended, and the 01 contract faces the pressure of new cotton listing. After a rapid price correction, there is a short - term need for stabilization and adjustment. In terms of supply, the weather in Xinjiang this year is favorable for a bumper harvest, but recent high - temperature weather may have an adverse impact on the quality of new cotton. In terms of demand, the lack of progress in Sino - US negotiations has put pressure on US cotton prices, and the short - term import pressure is not large. The supply - demand tightness still exists. Coupled with the expansion of ginning factory capacity, there may be an expectation of抢购 if the price remains rigid. Therefore, cotton prices may be more likely to rise than fall from August to September. Overall, long positions can be opportunistically established near 13,200 - 13,600 for the 01 contract [4][22]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In July, Zhengzhou cotton prices first rose and then fell. As of July 31, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 closed at 13,650 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton for the month, a decrease of 0.66%. The main contract of cotton yarn closed at 19,770 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan/ton for the month, a decrease of 1.10%. The main contract of US cotton closed at 67.22 cents/pound, down 0.82 cents/pound for the month, a decrease of 1.21% [4][8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis (1) Weather impact is limited, and there is an expectation of a bumper cotton harvest - According to a survey in June by the International Cotton Market Monitoring System, the weather in major cotton - producing areas is favorable for cotton budding and boll - setting, with relatively few disasters. It is estimated that the new cotton yield per mu in 2025 will be 158.7 kg, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The national actual sown area of cotton in 2025 is 45.803 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 6.3% [16]. (2) Downstream consumption is stable, and attention should be paid to Sino - US negotiations - From January to June, the cumulative export value of clothing and clothing accessories in China was 73.466 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.66%. The cumulative export of textile yarns, fabrics and products from January to June was 70.531 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1.60%. From January to June, the cumulative retail sales of clothing in China was 534.13 billion yuan, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.59%. From January to June, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles in China was 743.59 billion yuan, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.62%. As of August 12, the deadline for the postponement of Sino - US tariffs is approaching. Currently, Sino - US negotiations are centered around further delaying tariffs. It is expected that tariffs will most likely be postponed, but there is still a long way to go before a framework agreement is reached. If there is no progress, market sentiment will be bearish [17]. 3. Future Outlook - The low - inventory logic of the 09 contract has ended, and the 01 contract faces the pressure of new cotton listing. After a rapid price correction, there is a short - term need for stabilization and adjustment. In terms of supply, the weather in Xinjiang this year is favorable for a bumper harvest, but recent high - temperature weather may have an adverse impact on the quality of new cotton. In terms of demand, the lack of progress in Sino - US negotiations has put pressure on US cotton prices, and the short - term import pressure is not large. The supply - demand tightness still exists. Coupled with the expansion of ginning factory capacity, there may be an expectation of抢购 if the price remains rigid. Therefore, cotton prices may be more likely to rise than fall from August to September. Overall, long positions can be opportunistically established near 13,200 - 13,600 for the 01 contract [4][22].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The macro - atmosphere has weakened, and the commodity market has declined across the board. Zhengzhou cotton (ZCE cotton) funds have reduced positions and exited the market. The short - term price of cotton is expected to fluctuate weakly. Although the cotton fundamentals are stable, with low commercial inventories providing some support, the lack of upward - driving factors and the weakening technical indicators suggest a cautious outlook. For downstream textile enterprises, they can consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce raw material procurement costs when prices fall [2][3][46]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 First Part: Basic Data of Domestic and International Cotton Markets - **Price Changes of Major Commodities and Cotton**: From July 25 to August 1, the CRB commodity price index decreased by 2.3% (from 302.25 to 295.28 points), the ICE cotton futures' December contract dropped by 2.65% (from 68.23 to 66.42 cents/pound), and the main 09 contract of ZCE cotton fell by 585 yuan/ton to 13585 yuan/ton, with a reduction of 179,000 lots in positions to 326,000 lots. Some commodities like gold and crude oil rose, while agricultural products generally declined [2][7][10]. - **Imported Cotton Prices**: The CNF quotes of imported cotton in major ports decreased. For example, the price of US E/MOTM decreased by 0.6 cents/pound, and that of Brazilian M decreased by 1.9 cents/pound [9]. - **Domestic Cotton and Yarn Market**: Domestic cotton spot and futures prices dropped significantly. In the cotton yarn market, downstream demand was weak, and transactions slowed down. The immediate profit of spinning enterprises improved, and the cash - flow loss of inland spinning enterprises shrank to less than 500 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Second Part: Domestic Market Situation - **Textile Raw Material Prices**: On August 1, compared with July 25, the price trends of raw materials such as polyester staple fiber, viscose, and cotton were mixed. For example, polyester staple fiber decreased by 35 yuan/ton, while viscose increased by 10 yuan/ton [14]. - **Yarn Prices**: The price of domestic and imported yarns generally declined. The price difference between domestic and imported yarns narrowed, and the price difference between domestic cotton and international cotton (under sliding - scale duty) widened [18][20][26]. 3.3 Third Part: ZCE Cotton Market Analysis - **ZCE Cotton Warehouse Receipts and Forecasts**: As of August 1, the registered warehouse receipts of ZCE cotton were 8807 lots (378,000 tons), with 348 valid forecasts, and the total of warehouse receipts and forecasts was 393,000 tons, down from 419,000 tons on July 25 [30]. - **ZCE Cotton Futures - Spot Price Difference**: The price difference between ZCE cotton futures and the CCI3128B index widened. The price difference between ZCE cotton and ICE cotton (under sliding - scale duty) also increased [32][33]. - **ZCE Cotton Price Analysis**: Macroeconomic factors and policies at home and abroad have an impact on cotton prices. The overall growth of US cotton plants is good, while India's cotton sowing progress lags behind last year. The inspection of Xinjiang - related products has rebounded. Technically, the indicators of ZCE cotton have weakened [34][35][39]. 3.4 Fourth Part: International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Export Dynamics**: From July 18 - 24, the net signing of US 2024/25 - year land cotton decreased significantly compared with the previous week but increased significantly compared with the four - week average. The shipment of land cotton increased. The net signing and shipment of Pima cotton showed different trends. New - year contracts were also signed [42]. - **ICE Cotton Futures Analysis**: On August 1, the ICE cotton futures' December contract decreased by 2.65% compared with July 25. Technically, the indicators have weakened [44]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Operation Suggestions For downstream textile enterprises, when the raw material price drops, they can consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the cost of raw material procurement [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of US cotton futures continued to decline, and the price of Zhengzhou cotton dropped significantly. The specific agreement of the Sino - US economic and trade talks has not been finalized, and the suspension of reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures is bearish. Fundamentally, downstream consumption is average, the operating rate remains at a historically low level, and the cotton destocking speed slows down. The current market price has fallen below the trend line, and short - term bearish sentiment persists [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Market Review**: As of Friday, the closing price of the December contract of US cotton futures was 66.42 cents per pound, a decrease of 1.81 cents per pound from the previous week, with a decline rate of 2.65%. As of the week of July 27, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 55%, 2 percentage points lower than the previous week; the squaring rate was 80%, 9 percentage points higher than the previous week; the boll - setting rate was 44%, 11 percentage points higher than the previous week. As of the week of July 24, the net increase in export sales of US upland cotton in the 2024/2025 market year was 39,100 bales, a sharp decrease from the previous week but a significant increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The net increase in export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/2026 market year was 71,700 bales [9]. - **Domestic Market Review**: As of Friday, the closing price of the September contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 13,585 yuan per ton, a decrease of 585 yuan per ton from the previous week, with a decline rate of 4.13%. As of the week of August 1, the spinning mill operating rate was 66.6%, a 1 - percentage - point decrease from last week and a 0.6 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year; the weaving mill operating rate was 37.5%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from last week and a 1.2 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year; the weekly commercial cotton inventory was 2.16 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons from last week and an increase of 30,000 tons from the same period last year [9]. - **Viewpoints and Strategies**: The Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Sweden, but the specific agreement has not been finalized. The suspension of reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures is bearish. Fundamentally, with the continuous strengthening of the basis, downstream consumption is average, the operating rate remains at a historically low level, and the cotton destocking speed slows down. The current market price has fallen below the trend line, and short - term bearish sentiment persists [9]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: On August 1, 2025, the basis was 1,575 yuan per ton, the Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 spread was - 200 yuan per ton, the spinning immediate profit was - 887 yuan per ton, the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread was 180 yuan per ton, and the FC index M 1% was 13,551 yuan per ton. The short - term is still bearish [10]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: No trading strategy recommendations were provided [11]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, Zhengzhou cotton basis, import profit, Zhengzhou cotton monthly spreads, and various international spreads, to show the historical trends of different spreads [27][29][31]. 3.3 Domestic Market Situation The report shows multiple charts related to the domestic cotton market, including domestic cotton production, import volume, US export contract volume to China, cotton yarn import volume, downstream operating rate, cotton sales progress, cotton inventory, and spinning mill raw material and finished - product inventory, to reflect the supply and demand situation of the domestic cotton market [40][42][44]. 3.4 International Market Situation - **CFTC Positions**: The report shows the historical trends of CFTC fund net positions and commercial net positions [58]. - **US Situation**: The report presents multiple charts related to the US cotton market, including planting situation, production situation, production and planting area, export contract progress, export shipment volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio, to reflect the supply and demand situation of the US cotton market [60][62][64]. - **Brazil Situation**: The report shows multiple charts related to the Brazilian cotton market, including production and planting area, export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio, to reflect the supply and demand situation of the Brazilian cotton market [73][76][78]. - **India Situation**: The report presents multiple charts related to the Indian cotton market, including production and planting area, consumption and import/export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio, to reflect the supply and demand situation of the Indian cotton market [81][84][86].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, cotton prices are oscillating at a high level. Overseas, the weather in US cotton - growing areas has been favorable recently, with the drought - affected area of US cotton remaining at 3% as of July 22, and the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton at 57% as of July 20, higher than last week and last year. Also, the net export sales of US cotton last week were only 100,000 bales, which put pressure on US cotton. However, the high - temperature and low - rainfall weather in the western US cotton - growing areas in the coming week is unfavorable for cotton growth, and the strong performance of US crude oil and US grains provides support for US cotton. With these mixed factors, US cotton is oscillating. - In the domestic market, on the supply side, the current commercial cotton inventory is continuously being consumed, and the import of cotton is relatively low. The downstream demand is in the off - season, the operating rate of spinning mills is decreasing, and the finished - product inventory is constantly accumulating. Currently, the new - season cotton in Xinjiang is in the full - bloom stage, the soil moisture is fair, and the high - temperature situation in the growing areas has recently eased. - Strategy: With mixed factors, US cotton is oscillating. In China, the low import of cotton and the continuous consumption of commercial inventory lead to a relatively fast inventory - reduction speed. After continuous increases, the short - term futures market is oscillating. In addition, the downstream demand is still weak, combined with the increase in the planting area of new - season cotton and the alleviation of high - temperature in Xinjiang, which will limit the upward range of Zhengzhou cotton futures [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Views - US cotton is affected by both positive and negative factors and is oscillating. In China, due to low cotton imports and continuous consumption of commercial inventory, the inventory - reduction speed is fast. After continuous increases, the short - term futures market is oscillating. The weak downstream demand, increased new - season cotton planting area, and alleviated Xinjiang high - temperature will limit the rise of Zhengzhou cotton [8]. 3.2 Market Review - As of the close on July 25, the ICE US cotton 12 contract closed at 68.23 cents per pound, down 0.53 points from last week's close, a weekly decline of 0.77%. The CF2509 contract closed at 14,170 yuan per ton, down 100 points from last week's close, a weekly decline of 0.70% [10]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **US Cotton Growth**: As of the week of July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 57%, up from 54% the previous week and 53% in the same period last year. The boll - setting rate was 33%, up from 23% the previous week and compared with 40% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 33%. The budding rate was 71%, up from 61% the previous week and compared with 79% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 75% [14][18]. - **US Cotton Exports**: In the 2024/2025 season, the net export sales of US upland cotton were - 32,700 bales, significantly lower than the previous week and the four - week average. In the 2025/2026 season, the net export sales were 132,600 bales. The export shipment volume of US upland cotton was 184,800 bales, a week - on - week increase of 18% but a 12% decrease compared with the four - week average [14][22]. - **Domestic Spinning Mills**: As of July 24, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 67.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.73%. The operating rate continued to decline this week. The cotton inventory of mainstream spinning mills was equivalent to 27.90 days of storage, and the yarn inventory of major spinning mills was 31.7 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.63% [14][26][29]. - **Domestic Cotton Inventory**: As of July 24, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 3.28% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 353,300 tons, and the inventory continued to decline during the week [14][31]. 3.4 Spread Tracking - The report mentions cotton basis, cotton 9 - 1 spread, cotton - yarn spread, and domestic - foreign cotton spread, but no specific data or analysis is provided [36].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 棉花：商品冲高回落，棉市窄幅震荡 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 旧作库存短缺矛盾逐步计价，新作丰产预期尚未兑现。 | | | 需求 | 偏多 | 纺纱产能过剩，开机率居高不下，导致棉花工业需求坚挺。 | | | 库存 | 中性 | 全国商业库存去化速度较快，全国工业库存维持高位。 | | | 基差/价差 | 中性 | （1）本周郑棉基差维持震荡，新疆双28现货基差1000-1200。（2）本周郑棉9-1月差持续走强。 | | | 利润 | 偏空 | 新疆纺纱微亏，内地纺纱亏损严重。纱花价差低位运行。 | | | 估值 | 中性 目前绝对价格处于近四年中性水平。 | | | | 宏观及政策 | 偏多 | 国内方面，内需政策逐步加码，有利于托底国产棉花的远期需求。 | | | 投资观点 | 震荡 | | 短期需求端表现一般，供应端维 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a decline in cotton futures prices, with the domestic and international market showing mixed signals and a lack of clear direction [1] - As of Friday's close, cotton futures for the 2509 contract were reported at 14,170 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.70% [1] - The weighted average price of cotton in the domestic market was 15,549 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of 41 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - Internationally, the USDA reported a significant drop in weekly cancellations of U.S. cotton contracts for the 2024/25 season, totaling 0.74 million tons, which is a substantial decrease compared to previous weeks [1] - The export volume of cotton products from China for June 2025 was 628,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.46%, but a month-on-month decrease of 4.28% [1] - The market analysis suggests that the global cotton supply for the 2025/26 season is expected to be loose due to increased production in Brazil and China, despite a tight domestic inventory situation [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - ICE cotton is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend. It currently lacks fundamental guidance, with trading light and remaining in a volatile pattern. The US cotton growth is good, and export sales are in line with seasonal patterns. The tariff negotiations between the US and other countries also meet expectations. For domestic cotton futures, they maintained high - level volatility this week. The concern about tight old - crop inventory has been fully traded, and factors such as potential low - value warehouse receipts for September delivery and a cooling financial market sentiment have stopped the upward momentum. In the short term, the expectation of tight old - crop inventory will support prices, and as long as the textile enterprise operating rate does not drop significantly, cotton demand will be stable, with limited downward pressure on cotton prices. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the market game under the delivery logic after mid - August [1][2][18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情数据 - ICE cotton main contract: opened at 68.74, reached a high of 68.99, a low of 67.80, closed at 68.23, down 0.53 or - 0.77%. The trading volume was 74,713 lots, a decrease of 14,474 lots, and the open interest was 154,997 lots, an increase of 2,253 lots. - Zhengzhou cotton main contract: opened at 14,295, reached a high of 14,330, a low of 14,095, closed at 14,170, down 100 or - 0.70%. The trading volume was 1,226,001 lots, a decrease of 230,373 lots, and the open interest was 504,805 lots, a decrease of 75,968 lots. - Cotton yarn main contract: opened at 20,540, reached a high of 20,540, a low of 20,270, closed at 20,370, down 150 or - 0.73%. The trading volume was 48,652 lots, an increase of 9,334 lots, and the open interest was 10,802 lots, a decrease of 8,256 lots [5] 3.2.基本面 3.2.1. International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton: Narrowly fluctuated this week, with good US cotton new - crop growth, average but seasonally - compliant export sales, and tariff negotiations in line with expectations. Trading was light due to lack of fundamental guidance [6] - US cotton weekly export sales data (as of July 17): 2024/25 US upland cotton net weekly signing was - 0.74 million tons due to contract cancellations. 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly signing was 3.01 million tons. 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly shipments were 4.19 million tons, up 18% week - on - week but down 12% from the four - week average. The total signed and sold volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton in 2024/25 was 2.7746 billion tons, accounting for 108% of the annual predicted total export volume. The cumulative export shipment volume was 2.539 billion tons, accounting for 92% of the annual total signed volume [6] - Other major cotton - producing and consuming countries: - India: Sowing progress was slower than last year. As of July 18, the cotton planting area was 9.86 million hectares. Cotton sales by the Cotton Corporation of India were suspended. In May, raw cotton imports were 50,000 tons, up 10% from April and higher than last year. The cumulative import volume in the first ten months of this season was 569,000 tons. May raw cotton exports were 21,000 tons, down 4% from the previous month and 47% from May 2024. May cotton yarn exports were 83,900 tons, down 4% from April and 8% from last year. May textile exports were $2.013 billion, up 5% month - on - month and 10% from May 2024 [7] - Brazil: The US tariff increase on Brazil raised concerns in the domestic textile industry. As of July 18, the national cotton picking progress was about 15%. The 2024 - season cotton primary sales were almost completed, and about 70% of the 2025 - season and 25% of the 2026 - season cotton had been sold [8] - Pakistan: Cotton import demand was weak. The new - season cotton output was expected to be between 6.5 and 7.5 million bales. The policy of an 18% sales tax on cotton and cotton yarn imports was yet to be implemented, causing market uncertainty. In June, the export value of the five major textile categories was $1.27 billion, slightly higher than May and up 9% from last year. The cumulative export value in the 2024/25 fiscal year was $14.74 billion, up 8% from 2023/24 [9][10] - Bangladesh: Focused on US tariff negotiations. Textile mills mainly purchased for near - term needs. The government cancelled the 2% advance income tax on imported raw materials. Exporters to the US were worried as the August 1 tariff negotiation deadline approached. If no agreement was reached, a 35% tariff would be imposed on imports from Bangladesh [10] - Southeast Asian textile industry operating rates: As of July 25, India's textile enterprise operating rate was 73.5%, Vietnam's was 64%, and Pakistan's was 63.5% [11] 3.2.2. Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton spot price: Slightly declined with weak trading. Some 2023/24 and 2024/25 cotton spot quotes increased, and some cotton merchants lowered the basis [12] - Cotton warehouse receipts (as of July 25): There were 9,265 registered first - grade cotton warehouse receipts and 350 pending warehouse receipts, totaling 9,615, equivalent to 403,830 tons. Among the 24/25 registered warehouse receipts, there were 8,891 Xinjiang cottons and 374 local cottons [12] - Downstream trading: Slightly improved. In the pure - cotton yarn market, most spinning mills' quotes were stable, with actual transactions approaching quotes. Air - jet spinning sales were relatively good. Spinning mills' profits remained unimproved, and some continued to limit production. In the all - cotton grey fabric market, the off - season continued, with some local orders and stable quotes. Some weaving mills increased their operating rates, but overall it remained low. Inventory decreased slightly but remained high [13] 3.3.操作建议 - ICE cotton: Maintain a volatile trend. There is no new downside risk currently, but the good US cotton growth and uncertain global cotton consumption limit its upward momentum. It needs a driver to break through the oscillation range. Attention should be paid to tariff negotiations between the US and China, India, etc. - Domestic cotton futures: Short - term support from the expectation of tight old - crop inventory. As long as the textile enterprise operating rate does not drop significantly, cotton demand will be stable, and the downward pressure on cotton prices is limited. Technically, pay attention to the 13,600 - 13,900 support range. Also, pay attention to policy trends and the market game under the delivery logic after mid - August [18]

郑棉高位震荡， 缺乏持续上涨的驱动 棉花周报 2025/07/26 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 03 国内市场情况 02 价差走势回顾 04 国际市场情况 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 国际市场回顾：本周美棉花期货价格小幅下跌，截至周五美棉花期货12月合约收盘价报68.23美分/磅，较之前一周下跌0.53美分/磅，涨幅 0.77%。消息方面，据USDA最新每周作物生长报告数据显示，截至2025年7月20日当周，美国棉花优良率为57%，较之前一周上调3个百分点， 连续第四周上调，创4年同期最高水平；美国棉花现蕾率为71%，较之前一周上调10个百分点，同比去年下降8个百分点；美国棉花结铃率为 33%，较之前一周上调10个百分点，同比去年下降7个百分点。据USDA公布的出口销售报告显示，截至7月17日当周，美国当前市场年度棉花 出口销售净减3.27万包，较之前一周减少692%，较前四周均值减少199%。 ◆ 国内市场回顾：本周郑棉价 ...