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大摩:小米集团-W(01810)新手机及电动车客制化服务或成正面催化剂 目标价62港元
智通财经网· 2025-09-26 07:43
智通财经APP获悉,摩根士丹利发布研报称,小米集团-W(01810)周四(25日)发布其旗舰智能手机——小 米17系列,包括三款型号——17、17 Pro及17 Pro Max。Pro及Pro Max型号配备全新后置屏幕,这是一 项创新设计。结合优良的产品质量及吸引人的价格,大摩认为小米17系列的销售表现很可能超预期。此 类新产品可能加速小米在高端智能手机市场的份额增长。大摩维持小米集团"增持"评级,目标价62港 元,将该股定位行业内首选。 与此同时,小米已在其电动车业务中启动"客制化服务"。大摩表示,该服务将推出五种新定制颜色、两 种新内饰设计以及其他新功能,如定制标志、安全带等。虽然初期数量非常有限,每月仅40辆,但相 信"客制化服务"将成为小米电动车的关键竞争优势。一旦新电动车工厂的利用率提升,"客制化服务"很 可能扩展至大多数型号,帮助小米维持稳健的新订单流。 ...
中国的高储蓄模式,是奇迹还是陷阱?
伍治坚证据主义· 2025-09-26 07:30
过去几十年,中国经济腾飞的秘密是什么? 关于这个问题的答案,众说纷纭。比较主流的观点之一是:中国经济的发展故事就是一部" 储蓄的奇迹 "。从上世纪八十年代一个普通的发展中国家,到如 今成为世界制造业和出口大国,中国靠的是一种"高储蓄—高投资"的发展模式【1】。道理不复杂:老百姓少消费、多存钱,政府和企业就能拿到足够的资 金搞投资。修路、建桥、盖厂房,GDP自然飞速增长。 这个模式在头二十年确实管用。从九十年代到2000年代,中国GDP年均增速超过10%,而居民收入也以每年6-7%的速度上涨。虽然收入增速比不上 GDP,但在老百姓眼里,口袋确实鼓了不少【1】。就像一个家庭,父母拼命加班挣钱,把大部分钱拿去买房子、装修,孩子的零花钱增加虽然是小头,但 还是比过去多很多,所以短期内也能接受。 问题是,这种模式一旦走到尽头,副作用就会慢慢显现。 储蓄率过高,意味着消费不足,结果是产能必须靠出口来消化 。2007年前后,中国的经常账户 顺差一度达到GDP的10%【1】。这在经济史上非常少见。换句话说,中国生产得比消费得多得多,于是把多余的产能卖到海外。美国和欧洲的消费者成 了"平衡器",买下了中国的货,也承担了由此带来 ...
终于知道疼了,加拿大外长将访华,望中国“高抬贵手”,取消加税
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-26 05:06
Group 1 - The article discusses Canada's recent trade challenges with China, highlighting the consequences of blindly following the policies of larger nations [2][3] - In October 2024, Canada imposed three additional tariffs on Chinese imports, including a 100% punitive tariff on electric vehicles and a 25% additional tax on steel and aluminum products [4][6] - The Canadian government claims these measures are to protect domestic industries, but they are seen as aligning with the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy aimed at curbing China's development [8] Group 2 - In March 2025, China retaliated with significant tariffs on Canadian products, including a 100% tariff on canola oil and a 25% tariff on seafood and pork [10][11] - Key data shows that from 1999 to 2020, 84% of China's imported canola came from Canada, with exports to China reaching $3.47 billion in 2023, a 170% increase year-on-year [15] - Following China's countermeasures, Canadian canola prices fell by 30%, and exports to China dropped by 70% in Q2 2025, leading to significant financial losses for Canadian farmers [21][23] Group 3 - The article notes that Canada has become a victim in the geopolitical game, with the U.S. maintaining high tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum while threatening further tariffs on other products [24][26] - Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand's visit to China aims to negotiate tariff reductions, but China has made significant advancements in energy and manufacturing sectors, complicating negotiations [26][28] - The article concludes that Canada made three strategic errors: misjudging China's resolve, overestimating U.S. support, and underestimating its own economic dependencies [28][30]
大行评级|花旗:小米最新旗舰手机极具竞争力 予其“买入”评级
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-26 02:57
花旗予该股"买入"评级,原因包括法院裁决阻止美国对该股票的投资限制;公司意外获得市场份额;指 数移除的压力结束;又认为小米市场份额增长带来吸引人的风险及回报前景,应有利于市场的乐观情 绪。鉴于中国补贴驱动的需求及正常化的元件成本,花旗对智能手机业务及毛利率展望更为乐观。花旗 以2026年为基础,鉴于长期可见度稳固,使用总和估值法(SOTP)对小米每股估值为66港元。 花旗发表研报指,小米集团推出最新旗舰手机Mi 17,令人印象深刻。此外,小米汽车正式推出客制化 服务,有望进一步提升电动车平均售价/利润率。花旗认为,Mi 17规格强大、设计出色且电池容量大, 极具竞争力,有望在4千至6千元售价区间获得市场份额,较佳的产品组合可能稳定毛利率压力,接下来 的智能手机出货数据可能支持双位数增长。下一催化剂包括2025年第三季度业绩、电动车新版本发布。 ...
活力中国调研行丨无锡“小电驴”勇闯全球有何秘籍?
Yang Shi Xin Wen Ke Hu Duan· 2025-09-26 02:01
江苏省无锡市锡山区被誉为"中国电动车之乡",全国每三辆电动车就有一辆产自这里。如今,"无锡制造"的电动车正在获得全球市场的青睐,平均每分钟就 有2.4辆电动车从这里走向世界。 那么,"小电驴"是如何闯全球的,我们来看记者在无锡的调研。 "小电驴"何以闯全球? 在锡山电动车产业园内,频频点赞、拍照打卡的,是来自匈牙利的一个考察团。30多人的考察团里有的是老客户,还有的是经老客户介绍过来的新客户。 在一家企业的试驾区,英国客商罗伊德正饶有兴致地体验一款新式电动摩托车,他和妻子正在伦敦筹办一家电动摩托车销售公司,这次专门来无锡采购。 在不远处的另一家企业,巴基斯坦客商诺曼看得格外仔细,中国通的他深知货比三家的道理,几乎把园区内的电动车企业走了个遍。在这家规模不大,但创 新见长的电动车企业里,他和团队足足转了3个小时。 巴基斯坦采购商 诺曼:我们已从当地企业采购了约1000辆电动车,这仅是一个开始。放眼全球,中国制造了全球最先进的电动车。 好产品吸引了一拨又一拨的海外客商,也带来了越来越多的新市场。在全球严峻的外贸形势下,今年前8个月,无锡锡山区电动车出口额同比增长36.5%。 "小电驴"如何从无锡走向世界? 看似简 ...
李善友:为什么马斯克的“疯狂”想法,总能变成商业奇迹?
3 6 Ke· 2025-09-25 13:10
"今天想引导大家一个角度,就是马斯克用什么样的办法做出这么大的事情出来。他的认知的方式,他 做事情的方法,如果能做出这么大的事情,是不是也可以来做我自己的那番事呢?" 但对马斯克而言,这只是一个起点。他问了自己一个同龄人从未想过的问题:"哪些事情对人类的未来 影响最大?" 李善友教授说:"我们绝大多数人都是有一个事业,走着走着,好像把那个使命慢慢清晰出来。这哥们 儿是先有使命,然后再有事业,这个顺序是非常不一样的。" ——李善友 当全世界都在谈论埃隆·马斯克时,我们究竟在谈论什么? 是那个将PayPal卖出1.8亿美元,实现财富自由的互联网新贵?还是那个转头就把所有钱投入"烧钱无底 洞"的火箭和电动车,被所有人嘲笑的疯子? 我们模仿他的商业模式,分析他的技术路径,但似乎总隔着一层纱。我们学得到他的"术",却触不到他 的"道"。 他真正的超能力是什么?那股驱动他以一己之力对抗国家机器、颠覆百年行业的底层力量,究竟从何而 来? 从财富自由到"天命所归" 2002年,31岁的马斯克在卖掉PayPal后,手握1.8亿美金。 支票到账时,他还和四个人挤在一个房间里。对任何人来说,这都是人生的终点,是享受海滩和阳光的 开 ...
大和:小米集团-W(01810)未来三年目标收入达7,000亿人民币 电动车年交付量100万辆
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-25 06:37
Group 1: Electric Vehicle Business - The first phase of Xiaomi's electric vehicle factory has upgraded its technology, increasing weekly delivery volume from 7,000-8,000 units in early August to 10,000-12,000 units since late August [1] - The second phase of the factory has a similar design capacity to the first phase and is currently awaiting final government approval [1] - Xiaomi plans to launch new models in 2026 and aims to start exporting electric vehicles to the European market in 2027, with a focus on capturing market share rather than entering the 150,000 RMB price range in the next 5-10 years [1] Group 2: Smartphone Business - Due to rising memory costs, Xiaomi expects smartphone gross margins to be 11%-12% in the second half of 2025, with pressure easing in the first half of 2026 [2] - The company is exploring upgrading smartphone specifications and considering passing costs onto consumers, while predicting a gradual exit from smartphone subsidies with limited impact due to 70% of sales being overseas [2] - Xiaomi aims to achieve a revenue target of 700 billion RMB within three years, with specific goals including increasing smartphone shipments by 10 million units to 200 million, doubling IoT revenue to 200 billion RMB, and delivering 1 million electric vehicles annually contributing 250 billion RMB in revenue [2]
大和:小米集团-W未来三年目标收入达7,000亿人民币 电动车年交付量100万辆
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-25 06:36
Group 1: Electric Vehicle Business - The first phase of Xiaomi's electric vehicle factory has upgraded its technology, increasing weekly delivery volumes from 7,000-8,000 units in early August to 10,000-12,000 units since late August [1] - The second phase of the factory is designed to have a similar capacity as the first phase and is currently awaiting final government approval [1] - Xiaomi plans to launch new electric vehicle models in 2026 and aims to start exporting vehicles to the European market in 2027, with a focus on capturing market share rather than entering the 150,000 RMB price range in the next 5-10 years [1] Group 2: Smartphone Business - Due to rising memory costs, Xiaomi expects smartphone gross margins to be between 11% and 12% in the second half of 2025, with pressure easing in the first half of 2026 [2] - The company is exploring upgrading smartphone specifications and considering passing costs onto consumers, while predicting a gradual exit from smartphone subsidies with limited impact due to 70% of sales being overseas [2] - Xiaomi aims to achieve a revenue target of 700 billion RMB within three years, with specific goals including increasing smartphone shipments by 10 million units to 200 million, doubling IoT revenue to 200 billion RMB, and delivering 1 million electric vehicles annually contributing 250 billion RMB in revenue [2]
大行评级|大和:重申小米“买入”评级 未来三年目标营收达7000亿元
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-25 06:11
大和发表报告指,于昨日(24日)与小米管理层举行非交易路演,该行引述小米第一阶段电动车工厂技术 升级提升产能,已推动周付运量由7月至8月初的7000辆至8000辆,提升至8月下旬以来的10000辆至 12000辆。第二阶段工厂设计产能与第一阶段相若,现正等待最终政府批准。管理层认为小米电动车并 未面临产能过剩或内卷压力。公司现阶段以抢占市场份额为优先目标,并无计划于未来5年至10年进入 15万元价格带,而是集中于中高端市场。2025年电动车交付目标维持35万辆不变,整体业务目标进度良 好,不受补贴政策变动显著影响。 大和引述小米管理层指,公司营收目标在三年内达成7000亿元,计划未来3年实现以下目标:1)智能手 机年出货量增加1000万台至2亿台,从而带动手机业务营收达2500亿元;物联网(IoT)营收翻倍至2000亿 元;未来三年电动车年交付量达100万辆,营收贡献2500亿元。大和重申小米"买入"评级及12个月目标 价76港元,基于2025年至2026年市盈率36倍。 ...
小米集团-W涨超4% 小米17系列今晚首发第五代骁龙8至尊版
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-25 06:00
Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group's stock rose over 4% following the announcement of the Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 mobile platform, which is touted as the "world's fastest mobile CPU" [1] Group 1: Product Launch - Xiaomi's founder and CEO Lei Jun confirmed that the Xiaomi 17 series will be the first to feature the new Snapdragon platform, with the official launch scheduled for tonight [1] - The Xiaomi 17 series will include three models: Xiaomi 17 Standard, Xiaomi 17 Pro, and the compact imaging flagship Xiaomi 17 Pro Max, all running on Xiaomi's own operating system, MIUI 3 [1] Group 2: Financial Goals - Daiwa reported that during a non-deal roadshow with Xiaomi's management, the company set a revenue target of 700 billion RMB within three years [1] - Xiaomi aims to increase its annual smartphone shipments by 10 million units to reach 200 million units, contributing 250 billion RMB to mobile business revenue [1] - The company plans to double its IoT revenue to 200 billion RMB and achieve annual electric vehicle deliveries of 1 million units, contributing an additional 250 billion RMB in revenue over the next three years [1]