Investment Rating - The automotive industry is rated as "Outperform" [4][5] Core Views - The industry is entering the mid-year performance reporting period, with a focus on the 2025 World Robot Conference. The July car market is expected to grow primarily due to the "trade-in and scrapping" policies, with retail sales of narrow passenger cars projected at approximately 1.85 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.6% [1][3] - The long-term outlook emphasizes the rise of domestic brands and opportunities in incremental components driven by electric and intelligent trends. In the short term, the strong new product cycle of Huawei and the first year of the Xiaomi automotive industry chain are highlighted [3][12] Monthly Production and Sales Data - In July, the narrow passenger car retail market is expected to reach around 1.85 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 7.6% and a month-on-month decline of 11.2%. New energy vehicle retail is estimated at about 1.01 million units, with a penetration rate expected to rise to 54.6% [1] - Weekly data shows that from July 1 to 27, retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.445 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9% but a month-on-month decline of 19% [1] Weekly Market Performance - For the week of July 28 to August 1, the CS automotive index fell by 2.26%, with the CS passenger vehicle index down by 2.73%. The CS electric vehicle index decreased by 5.01%, while the overall Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.38% [2] Key Company Earnings Forecast and Investment Ratings - Key companies such as Leap Motor, Geely, and JAC are rated as "Outperform" with respective earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 and 2026 indicating growth potential [4] - Leap Motor (9863.HK) is expected to have an EPS of -0.05 in 2025, while Geely (0175.HK) is projected to have an EPS of 1.36 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic brands and the opportunities in incremental components, particularly in the context of electric and intelligent vehicles. Specific recommendations include: - Vehicle manufacturers: Leap Motor, JAC, Geely - Intelligent technology: Kobot, Huayang Group, Junsheng Electronics - Robotics: Top Group, Sanhua Intelligent Control, Shuanghuan Transmission - Domestic alternatives: Xingyu Co., Fuyao Glass, Jifeng Co., New Spring Co., Horizon Robotics-W [3][12][24] Industry Long-term Outlook - The Chinese automotive industry is transitioning from a growth phase to a mature phase, with a projected annual compound growth rate of 2% over the next 20 years. The report anticipates that new energy vehicle sales will continue to grow significantly, with projections of 1.55 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of over 25% [13][24]

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive industry is experiencing a significant opportunity for "leapfrog" development due to the dual focus on electric intelligence and new consumer trends [1][6] - The sales of domestic passenger cars reached 9.27 million units in the first half of 2025, marking a 25% year-on-year increase, with a market share of 68.5%, up by 6.6 percentage points [6] - The overall automotive production and sales in China surpassed 15 million units in the first half of 2025, achieving double-digit growth compared to the previous year [6] Industry Trends - The introduction of advanced features such as "parking valet" and AI-driven smart cabins in new vehicles is becoming a key consideration for consumers when purchasing electric vehicles [3] - Consumer recognition of domestic electric vehicles has significantly improved, driven by advancements in intelligent connected vehicles [6] - The government is implementing policies to boost consumer spending, including optimizing trade-in policies, which is expected to further stimulate the automotive market [6] Market Outlook - Many automotive companies plan to launch new models in the second half of the year, indicating a positive market sentiment [6] - The industry anticipates that the total automotive production and sales for the year will reach new highs, with potential for greater domestic consumption in the future [6]

Core Insights - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive sector, highlighting the expected boost in market sentiment due to a surge in new product launches and the upcoming earnings reports [1][5][12] - The automotive industry is transitioning towards a technology-driven era, with significant advancements in electrification, intelligence, and connectivity, which are expected to create new demand [12][13] - The report emphasizes the growth potential of domestic brands and the opportunities in incremental components driven by electric and intelligent trends [22][23] Sales Tracking - In June 2025, retail sales of passenger vehicles in China reached 2.084 million units, a year-on-year increase of 18.1% and a month-on-month increase of 7.6% [1] - Cumulative retail sales from January to June 2025 totaled 10.901 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.8% [1] - The new energy vehicle market saw retail sales of 1.111 million units in June, marking a year-on-year increase of 29.7% and a cumulative total of 5.468 million units for the first half of the year, up 33.3% [1] Market Performance - In June, the CS automotive sector experienced a slight decline of 0.13%, with the CS passenger vehicle index down 2.34% [2] - Year-to-date, the automotive sector has risen by 28.88%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 14.17 percentage points [2] - The report notes a decrease in the inventory warning index for automotive dealers, indicating improved market conditions [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic brands and the opportunities in incremental components, particularly in the context of the electric and intelligent vehicle trends [22][23] - Recommended companies include Leap Motor, JAC Motors, and Geely for vehicle manufacturing, and companies like Kobot, Huayang Group, and Junsheng Electronics for intelligent components [3][22] - The report highlights the potential of new entrants like Huawei and Xiaomi in the automotive sector, emphasizing their strong channel and software ecosystem capabilities [22][23] Company Earnings Forecasts - Leap Motor is projected to have an EPS of -0.05 in 2025, with a PE ratio of -1200, while Geely is expected to achieve an EPS of 1.36 with a PE of 12 [4] - JAC Motors is forecasted to have an EPS of 0.11 in 2025, with a PE of 380, indicating significant growth potential [4] - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for several key companies, reflecting their expected performance in the evolving automotive landscape [4][30]

Core Insights - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive sector, highlighting the potential for improved industry sentiment driven by a surge in new product launches and upcoming earnings reports [1][5] - The domestic passenger car market saw retail sales of 2.084 million units in June 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.1% and a month-on-month increase of 7.6% [1] - The report emphasizes the long-term growth opportunities in the automotive industry, particularly in the context of electric and intelligent vehicle trends, as well as the rise of domestic brands [12][13] Sales Tracking - In June 2025, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.111 million units, marking a year-on-year growth of 29.7% and a month-on-month growth of 8.2% [1] - Cumulative retail sales for the first half of 2025 reached 10.901 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.8% [1] - The report notes that the inventory warning index for automotive dealers in May 2025 was at 52.7%, indicating an improvement in the automotive circulation industry's sentiment [2] Market Performance - The automotive sector index experienced a slight decline of 0.13% in June 2025, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 2.9% [2] - Year-to-date, the automotive sector has increased by 28.88%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.78% increase [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic brands and the opportunities presented by incremental components in the context of electric and intelligent vehicles [12][19] - Recommended companies include Leap Motor, JAC Motors, and Geely for vehicle manufacturing, and companies like KOBOT, Huayang Group, and Junsheng Electronics for intelligent components [3][19] Industry Outlook - The report anticipates that the domestic automotive market will maintain a compound annual growth rate of 2% over the next 20 years, with new energy vehicle sales projected to reach 1.556 million units in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 25% [13][22] - The transition towards electric and intelligent vehicles is expected to create structural development opportunities within the industry, as traditional automotive manufacturers adapt to new technologies [12][13] Key Company Earnings Forecasts - Leap Motor is projected to have an EPS of -0.05 in 2025, with a PE ratio of -1200, while Geely is expected to achieve an EPS of 1.36 with a PE ratio of 12 [4] - JAC Motors is forecasted to have an EPS of 0.11 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 380, indicating a strong growth potential [4] New Energy Vehicle Projections - The report predicts that new energy vehicle sales will continue to grow, with expectations of 1.556 million units sold in 2025, representing a 28% increase from the previous year [18][22] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 38% in 2024, with significant growth anticipated in the following years [17][22]

Investment Rating - The automotive industry is rated as "Outperform" compared to the market [4] Core Insights - The automotive sector has shown a slight increase of 0.17% this week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which rose by 0.88% [4][12] - The sales of passenger vehicles in May increased year-on-year by 13% and month-on-month by 10%, with a total retail of 1.93 million units [4][27] - NIO reported a revenue of 12.03 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%, but a net loss of 6.89 billion yuan, indicating a narrowing loss compared to the previous quarter [4][26] - Changan Automobile has been upgraded to a central enterprise, which is expected to accelerate the development of its high-end electric and intelligent brands [4][8] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The automotive sector index closed at 6,982.4 points, ranking 25 out of 31 sectors, while the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,874.0 points [4][12] - The motorcycle and other segments increased by 3.58%, while commercial vehicles decreased by 5.35% [4][12] Sales Data - Daily retail sales of passenger vehicles averaged 95,364 units in the last week of May, a year-on-year increase of 6% [4][27] - Cumulative retail sales for the year reached 8.80 million units, up 9% year-on-year [4][27] Company Performance - NIO's Q1 2025 delivery was 42,094 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 40.1% [4][26] - Changan's independent status is expected to enhance its decision-making capabilities and resource acquisition [4][9] Investment Recommendations - Focus on intelligent passenger vehicles, particularly companies like XPeng Motors and Xiaomi Group [4] - In the auto parts sector, companies like KEBODA and Baolong Technology are recommended due to their core technology in electric and intelligent supply chains [4] - For automotive services, attention is drawn to China Automotive Research due to the expansion of electric intelligent brands [4]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic passenger car market in May continued its recovery trend, with retail sales increasing by 13% year-on-year to 1.93 million units, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles rising to 47.3% [1] Sales Tracking - In May, the retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.93 million units, a 13% increase compared to May last year, and a 10% increase from the previous month. Cumulatively, retail sales for the year reached 8.802 million units, up 9% year-on-year [1] - Wholesale figures for May showed 2.329 million units, a 14% year-on-year increase and a 6% month-on-month increase, with cumulative wholesale sales for the year at 10.797 million units, up 12% year-on-year [1] - Insurance data indicated that 1.7086 million new passenger cars were registered in May, a 12.5% increase year-on-year, with new energy vehicles accounting for 911,700 units, up 23.9% year-on-year [1] Market Performance - In May, the CS automotive sector rose by 1.88%, with the CS passenger car index increasing by 1.12%. The CS automotive parts index rose by 2.52%, and the CS automotive sales and service index increased by 3.26% [2] - From the beginning of 2025 to date, the automotive sector has increased by 29.05%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 11.92% [2] Cost Tracking - As of the end of May 2025, prices for float glass, aluminum ingots, and zinc ingots decreased by 24%, 3.2%, and 7.6% year-on-year, respectively [3] Inventory - The inventory warning index for Chinese automotive dealers in May was 52.7%, a decrease of 5.5 percentage points year-on-year and 7.1 percentage points month-on-month, indicating an improvement in the automotive circulation industry's prosperity [4] Market Focus - Developments in autonomous driving include companies like WeRide and Baidu expanding their robotaxi plans, with Tesla set to launch its robotaxi in June. Additionally, companies are accelerating the deployment of unmanned logistics vehicles [5] - A new 7 billion yuan industrial fund has been established in Shenzhen focusing on AI and embodied robotics [5] - New vehicle models include the Sea Lion 06EV, the Star Era ET facelift, and the Hongqi H6 facelift [5]

Core Insights - The automotive sector is expected to outperform the market, driven by a strong new product cycle and the rise of domestic brands in the context of electric and intelligent vehicle trends [3][14][24] - The report highlights a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the automotive sector in 2024, with a revenue of 37,123 billion and a net profit of 1,363 billion, marking a year-on-year growth of 7% and 9% respectively [1][15] - In Q1 2025, the automotive sector achieved a revenue of 8,417 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% and a net profit of 359 billion, which is a 14% increase year-on-year [1][15] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q4 2024, the automotive sector's revenue reached 11,176 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 13% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22% [1][15] - The net profit for Q4 2024 was 309 billion, which is a 26% increase year-on-year but a 9% decrease quarter-on-quarter [1][15] - The Q1 2025 results indicate a revenue decline of 25% quarter-on-quarter, while the net profit increased by 16% quarter-on-quarter [1][15] Market Trends - In April 2025, the retail market for narrow passenger cars reached approximately 1.75 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.4% but a month-on-month decrease of 9.8% [1][2] - The penetration rate for new energy vehicles in April 2025 is estimated to be 51.4%, with expected retail sales reaching 900,000 units [1][2] - The inventory warning index for automotive dealers in April 2025 was 59.8%, indicating a rise of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year and 5.2 percentage points month-on-month [2] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic brands and the opportunities in incremental components driven by electric and intelligent trends, highlighting companies like Leap Motor, Xpeng Motors, and Geely for vehicle recommendations [3][14][24] - For intelligent components, companies such as Coboda, Huayang Group, and Junsheng Electronics are recommended [3][14][24] - In the robotics sector, companies like Top Group and Sanhua Intelligent Control are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [3][14][24] Industry Outlook - The automotive industry is transitioning from a growth phase to a mature phase, with a projected annual compound growth rate of 2% over the next 20 years [15][19] - The report anticipates that the total sales of new energy vehicles will continue to grow, with sales expected to reach 1,216 million units in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 37% [19][20] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 20% by 2025, with sales projected to surpass 1.5 million units [24][28]

行业研究|可选消费|汽车与汽车零部件 证券研究报告 汽车与汽车零部件行业 周报、月报 2025 年 04 月 28 日 [Table_Title] 电动智能持续，关注欧洲新动向 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 4 月下半月销量优于上半月 与上半月相比，进入四月下半月后乘用车与新能源车销量同比增速扩大， 环比上月负增长收窄，行业进入月底发力期。批发仍然保持高增速，新能 源渗透率达到 53.3%。 乘用车：4 月 1-20 日，全国乘用车市场零售 89.7 万辆，同比去年 4 月 同期增长 12%，较上月同期下降 9%，今年以来累计零售 602.4 万辆，同 比去期增长 7%；4 月 1-20 日，全国乘用车厂商批发 99.3 万辆，同比去 年 4 月同期增长 14%，较上月同期下降 12%，今年以来累计批发 727.1 万 辆，同比增长 12%。 新能源：4 月 1-20 日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售 47.8 万辆，同比去 年 4 月同期增长 20%，较上月同期下降 11%，零售渗透率 53.3%，今年 以来累计零售 289.8 万辆，同比增长 33%；4 月 1-20 日，全国乘用车厂 商新能源 ...

上海车展开幕，电动智能持续发力 本周上海车展开幕，吸引了近1000家中外知名企业参展，超过10款车型首发。电动智能 仍是行业潮流，汽车行业持续向AI与科技方向进化。小米首次参展，尽管雷军未出席且外 界期待的YU7未亮相，小米展台仍然火爆。鸿蒙智行携八大车型亮相。索尼、英特尔、 Momenta等近50家国内外知名电子科技企业首次参加上海车展，同时众多动力电池公司参会 展示钠离子电池、固态电池等创新成果。奇瑞、长安、小鹏等车企纷纷展示了其最新的飞行 汽车产品，宁德时代和欣旺达动力也带来了为飞行汽车量身定制的动力解决方案。大量展台 引入人形机器人，担当新时代"车模"和导引顾问。 欧洲新能源发力，中国出口快速增长 国元证券近日发布汽车与汽车零部件行业周报：今年一季度，中国汽车品牌在欧洲的销 量同比增长78%，达到14.8万辆，市场份额从2024年同期的2.5%上升至4.5%。根据 MARKLINES数据，1-2月欧洲纯电动车销量同比大涨31.4％，达到33万辆；油电混合动力车 同比增长17.6％，达到68.77万辆。 以下为研究报告摘要： 报告要点： 4月下半月销量优于上半月 与上半月相比，进入四月下半月后乘用车与新 ...

行业研究|可选消费|汽车与汽车零部件 证券研究报告 汽车与汽车零部件行业 周报、月报 2025 年 04 月 28 日 [Table_Title] 电动智能持续，关注欧洲新动向 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 4 月下半月销量优于上半月 与上半月相比，进入四月下半月后乘用车与新能源车销量同比增速扩大， 环比上月负增长收窄，行业进入月底发力期。批发仍然保持高增速，新能 源渗透率达到 53.3%。 乘用车：4 月 1-20 日，全国乘用车市场零售 89.7 万辆，同比去年 4 月 同期增长 12%，较上月同期下降 9%，今年以来累计零售 602.4 万辆，同 比去期增长 7%；4 月 1-20 日，全国乘用车厂商批发 99.3 万辆，同比去 年 4 月同期增长 14%，较上月同期下降 12%，今年以来累计批发 727.1 万 辆，同比增长 12%。 新能源：4 月 1-20 日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售 47.8 万辆，同比去 年 4 月同期增长 20%，较上月同期下降 11%，零售渗透率 53.3%，今年 以来累计零售 289.8 万辆，同比增长 33%；4 月 1-20 日，全国乘用车厂 商新能源 ...