浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 科技行业 小米集团（1810.HK）：汽车毛利率表 现持续强劲，看好公司长期价值成长 图表 1：盈利预测和财务指标（2023-2027E） | 人民币百万元 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 270,970 | 365,906 | 480,258 | 632,234 | 756,748 | | 同比增速 | (3%) | 35% | 31% | 32% | 20% | | 经调整净利润 | 19,273 | 27,235 | 41,555 | 57,939 | 71,496 | | 同比增速 | 126% | 41% | 53% | 39% | 23% | | 目标 P/E (x) | 90.2 | 63.7 | 41.7 | 29.9 | 24.3 | E=浦银国际预测 资料来源：公司报告、浦银国际 沈岱 首席科技分析师 tony_shen@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6435 黄佳琦 科技分析师 sia_huang@spdbi ...

Summary of Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese stock market** and the **automobile industry** in the context of macroeconomic trends and policies. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Resilience**: The Chinese stock market and global markets appear resilient despite economic data and policy uncertainties, driven by liquidity factors [1][2][3] 2. **Economic Outlook**: The expectation for China's economic growth is cautious, with GDP growth projected to slow down to around 4.5% or lower, and deflationary pressures likely to persist into the first half of the next year [2][6] 3. **Liquidity-Driven Bull Market**: There are signs of a liquidity-driven bull market, particularly since early July, with a shift in asset allocation from fixed income to equity assets [5][11] 4. **Investor Sentiment**: International investors are increasingly interested in China, with a notable shift in sentiment regarding the country's investability compared to six months ago [13][14] 5. **Inflation and Deflation Concerns**: Discussions around whether China will experience prolonged deflation similar to Japan have diminished, with a more optimistic outlook on breaking the deflationary cycle [14][15] 6. **Sectoral Focus**: The automobile industry is highlighted as a key sector for observing the effects of anti-involution policies, which aim to reduce excessive price competition and improve supply chain profitability [33][34] 7. **Policy Impacts**: Recent policies, such as the 60-day payment terms, are expected to help stabilize the automobile industry's pricing and competition dynamics [34][35] 8. **Long-Term Industry Transformation**: The automobile sector is expected to undergo a transformation towards innovation and high-quality development, although short-term challenges remain [35][36] 9. **Supply Chain Optimization**: There is a focus on optimizing supply chains and eliminating inefficient production capacities within the automobile industry [38] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Global Liquidity Trends**: The global liquidity environment is influencing investment decisions, with expectations of a potential easing of monetary policy in the U.S. impacting emerging markets, including China [7][8][28] 2. **Investment Strategies**: Investors are advised to consider the structural changes in the Chinese stock market, particularly the shift towards high-quality sectors such as technology and finance, which now dominate the MSCI China Index [17][18] 3. **Market Dynamics**: The divergence in performance between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is noted, with A-shares expected to outperform in the near term due to lower relative valuations and sensitivity to policy changes [19][20][21] 4. **Consumer Behavior**: There is a growing trend of consumers shifting from fixed deposits to equity-linked financial products, indicating a change in investment behavior among residents [5][6] 5. **Future Monitoring**: The sustainability of liquidity improvements and the impact of upcoming economic policies will be critical to watch in the coming months [30][31]

Market Performance - The A-share market maintained a strong performance last week, with major indices rising, particularly the CSI 500 which led with a 3.28% increase, while the CSI 1000 rose over 2.36% [1] - The construction materials, steel, non-ferrous metals, engineering machinery, and coal sectors showed significant gains, each exceeding 6%, while banking and diversified finance sectors experienced declines, indicating a clear rotation of market hotspots [3] - Northbound capital saw a substantial net sell-off totaling 69.817 billion RMB for the week, with notable sell-offs on July 23 and July 25 amounting to 41.445 billion RMB and 40.696 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a cautious attitude from foreign investors as the index approached 3600 points [3] Key Industry News - The photovoltaic sector has shown remarkable performance, with silicon wafer prices rising significantly from July 21 to 24. The average transaction price for N-type G10L monocrystalline wafers increased by 4.76% to 1.1 RMB per piece, while N-type G12R wafers surged by 870% to 1.25 RMB per piece, and N-type G12 wafers rose by 6.67% to 1.44 RMB per piece [4] - Longjiang Securities noted that the photovoltaic industry, facing severe supply-demand imbalances and profit pressures, is expected to benefit from recent policy enhancements aimed at regulating low-price competition and promoting the orderly exit of outdated production capacities [4] Future Market Outlook - Longjiang Securities' senior investment advisor Liu Lang observed that the market maintained a bullish sentiment, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around 3600 points and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index reaching new highs for the year [5] - The market style is shifting, with significant capital inflow into lower-priced technology stocks, particularly in the semiconductor and AI sectors, which collectively attracted over 10 billion RMB, driving the STAR 50 Index to surpass its May high [6] - Key macroeconomic data indicated a decline in profits for industrial enterprises, with total profits for the first half of the year at 34,365 billion RMB, down 1.8% year-on-year, and a 4.3% decline in June [6] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the need to consolidate the market's recovery and promote long-term capital inflow, alongside reforms in public funds and mergers and acquisitions [6] Agricultural and Insurance Developments - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, along with ten other departments, issued a plan to promote agricultural product consumption, focusing on optimizing supply, innovating circulation, and activating market demand [7] - The insurance industry announced a reduction in the guaranteed interest rates for traditional life insurance products, with rates adjusted from 2.5% to 2.0% for ordinary life insurance and from 2% to 1.75% for participating insurance [7] AI Innovations - Tesla showcased its latest advancements in AI at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference, including smart electric vehicles and humanoid robots, highlighting the deployment of its Robotaxi service based on a visual architecture [8] - Alibaba introduced its self-developed AI glasses, "Quark AI Glasses," which integrate various functionalities and support multiple applications within the Alibaba ecosystem [8] Investment Strategy - From a medium to long-term perspective, technology sectors such as robotics, semiconductors, and AI applications are recommended for investment due to improved cost-effectiveness after a three-month correction [8] - The "anti-involution" sectors, including photovoltaic, lithium battery, automotive, steel, construction materials, coal, and pork, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [8] - The non-ferrous metals sector is showing signs of a "dilemma reversal," with noticeable profit improvements in cyclical industries [8]

Group 1 - The Chinese government proposed the establishment of a World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization to promote multilateralism and address the digital divide [2] - The 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference emphasized the need for accelerated digital infrastructure development, including clean power and AI standards [3] - Major foreign financial institutions have raised their economic growth forecasts for China following the release of Q2 economic data, with increases ranging from 0.3% to 0.6% [4] Group 2 - The establishment of the China Capital Market Society marks the creation of an official think tank for the capital market, with significant figures from the China Securities Regulatory Commission involved [5] - The stablecoin sector in Hong Kong is gaining attention, with analysts suggesting that clearer regulatory frameworks will drive growth and support the internationalization of the Renminbi [5] - A well-known private equity firm,淡水泉投资, is optimistic about structural investment opportunities in high-quality Chinese assets and the globalization of advantageous industries [5] Group 3 - The World Artificial Intelligence Conference showcased advancements in smart connected vehicles and AI technologies from companies like Alibaba and Baidu [6] - A new action plan for autonomous driving in Shanghai aims for significant milestones by 2027, including L4-level passenger transport and extensive road coverage [6] - The National Cyberspace Administration reported that 474 large models have completed registration, with over 30 billion registered users for these applications [6] Group 4 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is prepared to intervene in the currency market if the Hong Kong dollar's exchange rate with the US dollar falls to 7.85 [8] - 华熙生物 addressed false information circulating on social media regarding the company, clarifying the background of the individual responsible for the misinformation [9] - 京东健康 is upgrading its AI medical model system to enhance the coverage of its internet hospital services [9] Group 5 - As of June 30, the total net asset value of public funds in China reached a record high of 34.39 trillion yuan, with bond funds leading the growth [14] - The recent surge in industrial commodity futures prices has prompted exchanges to implement risk control measures to manage trading activity [15]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is showcasing its latest advancements in AI, including smart electric vehicles, humanoid robots, and autonomous driving technology at the 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference [1] Group 1: Robotaxi Business - Tesla has recently launched its Robotaxi service, which utilizes a vision-based architecture and a neural network trained on data from millions of vehicles, allowing for rapid deployment across regions [3] - The Robotaxi service was first introduced in Austin, Texas, in June, initially with safety drivers, and is expected to expand to areas like the San Francisco Bay, Arizona, and Florida within weeks [3] - By the end of this year, Tesla aims to cover approximately half of the U.S. population with its autonomous taxi service, pending regulatory approval [3] - In Europe, Tesla is on the verge of receiving regulatory approval in the Netherlands, which would allow European owners to experience similar autonomous driving capabilities [3] Group 2: Autonomous Driving System - Tesla's driver-supervised autonomous driving system is set to launch in China and Europe in 2025, pending regulatory review [4] - The company plans to open its driverless autonomous driving system to individual users in select U.S. regions by the end of this year, ensuring all safety measures are in place [4] - Tesla is transitioning from the "pre-autonomous driving era" to the "post-autonomous driving era" in the coming years [4] Group 3: Humanoid Robots - Tesla's humanoid robots are designed with the same principles as its vehicles, featuring deep integration of AI technology and the ability to learn in simulated environments without the need for additional real-world data adjustments [5] - The third-generation humanoid robot is expected to be launched this year and enter mass production next year, with a target of producing 1 million units within five years [6] Group 4: Electric Vehicle Sales and Infrastructure - In June, Tesla's domestic sales in China reached 61,000 units, a 59% month-over-month increase, setting a new record for quarterly sales, with the refreshed Model Y leading the passenger car sales chart [6] - Tesla's first batch of V4 supercharging stations became operational in mainland China on June 30, with locations in Shanghai, Zhejiang, Chongqing, and Gansu, significantly enhancing charging efficiency [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the latest changes in the top ten holdings of public funds, indicating a significant increase in Hong Kong-listed companies within the core positions of public funds, particularly with the inclusion of Xiaomi Group and Neway Technology in the second quarter [2][3]. Group 1: Top Holdings Overview - As of the end of Q2, the top ten holdings of public funds include Tencent Holdings, CATL, Kweichow Moutai, Midea Group, Zijin Mining, Xiaomi Group-W, Luxshare Precision, Alibaba-W, Neway Technology, and SMIC (HK) [2]. - Tencent Holdings has a total market value held by public funds of approximately 59.2 billion, with 1,039 fund products holding it. CATL follows with a market value of 52.1 billion and 1,150 funds [2]. Group 2: Changes in Holdings - Xiaomi Group and Neway Technology entered the top ten holdings, while BYD and Wuliangye exited. BYD was the most significantly reduced stock by public funds in Q2 [3]. - The white liquor industry saw the largest reductions among sectors, with three white liquor stocks in the top ten most reduced stocks by public funds [3]. Group 3: New Additions and Performance - The top three newly added stocks by public funds in Q2 were Shuyou Shen, Sifang Jingchuang, and Youfang Technology, with respective price increases of 419.94%, 228.21%, and 86.64% [3][4]. - The surge in stock prices for these new additions was supported by significant institutional buying, although some funds did not see a corresponding increase in net value due to not purchasing at lower prices [4]. Group 4: Fund Managers' Insights - Fund managers emphasized the core drivers of stock selection, highlighting advancements in China's AI industry, high-end manufacturing, and consumer trends shifting towards high-value and emotionally connected brands [5]. - The pharmaceutical innovation sector is experiencing a boost, with several large innovative drug companies announcing profitability, significantly enhancing market confidence in this sector [5]. - The technology and internet sectors are closely linked to new consumption trends driven by younger demographics, with significant growth potential emerging from the integration of AI into new consumer segments [6].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is improving global liquidity, leading to strong performance in high-dividend assets, particularly in the financial and insurance sectors. Additionally, China's technological breakthroughs in AI, high-end manufacturing, and pharmaceutical innovation are expected to create ongoing investment opportunities [1][4]. Fund Performance - The fund reported a profit of 26.49 million yuan in Q2, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.26 yuan. The net asset value growth rate for the fund was 20.66%, and the fund size reached 201 million yuan by the end of Q2. The fund achieved a year-to-date return of 67.72%, ranking among the top in the market [1]. Holdings Overview - The fund's top ten holdings are diversified, including: 1. Pop Mart (09992) - 8.45% of net asset value 2. Laopuhuangjin (06181) - 6.55% 3. JAC Motors (600418) - 6.00% 4. Anglikang (002940) - 5.68% 5. Jingpin Special Equipment (688084) - 4.70% 6. World Gold Group (03939) - 4.26% 7. Shandong Weida (002026) - 3.82% 8. Chuangfeng Power (603129) - 3.75% 9. Youfang Technology (688159) - 3.74% 10. Yixintang (002727) - 3.51% [1][3]. - Compared to the previous quarter, new entries in the top ten holdings include JAC Motors, Anglikang, World Gold Group, Shandong Weida, Chuangfeng Power, Youfang Technology, and Yixintang, while New Idea Network, Wangneng Environment (002034), Alibaba-W, Junxin Co. (301109), Zhongchen Technology (603275), and Ningbo Huaxiang (002048) exited the top ten [2][3]. Industry Insights - The global macroeconomic environment is characterized by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which are driving liquidity improvements and a rally in high-dividend assets, particularly in the financial sector [4]. - In the technology innovation sector, China's AI industry is experiencing significant breakthroughs, enhancing its core competitiveness and leading to explosive growth across the entire industrial chain from robotics to upstream hardware [5]. - In high-end manufacturing, China has made historic leaps to global leadership in precision processing and new energy vehicles, transitioning from a product importer to an exporter [5]. - Consumer trends are shifting towards pet economy and trendy consumer goods, with a preference for high cost-performance, experiential, and emotionally connected brands [5]. - In the pharmaceutical innovation sector, China has successfully transitioned from auxiliary research to becoming a global leader in original innovative drugs through years of technological accumulation and independent research [5]. Future Focus - The fund will concentrate on growth directions that have the potential to change the era, targeting companies with transformative capabilities [6].

Core Viewpoint - The "Everyday Brand 100 Index" (code: 931852) is undergoing its fourth sample adjustment, with 99 constituent stocks selected from the "2025 China Listed Company Brand Value Top 100" list, including Li Auto (HK 02015) as one of the new entrants, highlighting the importance of brand value in investment [1][2]. Group 1 - The inclusion of Li Auto in the new constituent stocks of the Everyday Brand 100 Index is seen as a recognition of its brand value and commitment to creating user value [1]. - Li Auto emphasizes that strong brand value builds trust and helps companies navigate through cycles, which is a core factor in attracting long-term investment [1][2]. - The company believes that every enhancement in user experience and trust translates into sustainable business returns and market confidence [1]. Group 2 - Li Auto asserts that brand value originates from user trust, focusing on its mission to create a "mobile home" and "happy home" through technology [2]. - Since the mass production of its first model in November 2019, Li Auto's innovative smart electric vehicle products have exceeded the needs of Chinese family users, enhancing market appeal and brand loyalty [2]. - Looking ahead, Li Auto plans to continue its user-centric approach, innovate products, deepen connections, and convey value to create long-term, sustainable returns for all stakeholders [2].

Core Viewpoint - Li Auto has established two new departments, "Space Robotics" and "Wearable Robotics," to enhance its focus on artificial intelligence product development and improve user experience in smart electric vehicles [2][3][4]. Group 1: Space Robotics Department - The Space Robotics department is likely related to Li Auto's "smart space" concept, which views the vehicle's cabin as a "third space" for deeper product functionality and user experience optimization [6]. - The concept of "smart space" was upgraded from traditional vehicle systems to reflect advancements in technology and user needs, with a focus on enhancing the in-car experience [6][7]. - Li Auto's CEO, Li Xiang, emphasizes the importance of innovation in spatial experience, aiming for the company to be recognized as a leader in this area, similar to how Apple is viewed in interaction experience [7][8]. Group 2: Wearable Robotics Department - The Wearable Robotics department aligns with the need for consistent user experiences across various devices, including smart glasses, which Li Xiang believes should provide similar functionality to vehicle systems and smartphones [8]. - Li Auto plans to develop an AI product that spans multiple devices, prioritizing existing users and their families, particularly focusing on children who are familiar with the "Li Xiang Classmate" concept [8][9]. - The smart glasses market is gaining traction, with various companies expected to launch new products, although challenges remain in finding core use cases and attracting users, especially those with vision impairments [9].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the "Space Robotics" and "Wearable Robotics" departments by Li Auto indicates a strategic shift towards enhancing user experience and integrating artificial intelligence into their product offerings [1][4]. Group 1: Space Robotics Department - The Space Robotics department is likely linked to Li Auto's "Smart Space" concept, which views the vehicle's cabin as a "third space" for deeper product functionality and user experience optimization [4]. - The concept of "Smart Space" was upgraded from traditional vehicle systems to reflect advancements in technology and user needs, with a focus on intelligent cabin experiences [4]. - Li Auto's CEO, Li Xiang, emphasized the importance of innovation in spatial experience, suggesting that the company aims to be recognized as a leader in this area, similar to how Apple is viewed in terms of interaction experience [5][4]. Group 2: Wearable Robotics Department - The Wearable Robotics department aligns with Li Xiang's vision of providing a consistent user experience across various devices, including smart glasses, which could become the next generation of consumer hardware [6]. - Li Auto plans to develop an AI product that spans multiple devices, prioritizing existing users and their families, particularly focusing on children [6]. - The smart glasses market is experiencing growth, with various tech companies launching new products, although challenges remain in finding core use cases and attracting users, especially those with vision impairments [7][6].