Core Viewpoint - The international capital market is optimistic about China's economic transformation and development prospects in 2026, with major foreign investment banks recommending increased allocations to A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, indicating a shift towards a dual-driven phase of profit improvement and valuation uplift [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Environment and Trends - In 2026, the investment focus is expected to be on "industrial innovation-driven + profit realization + resource supply-demand optimization," with emphasis on technology innovation, high-end manufacturing, and cyclical recovery [2][16]. - The global economic landscape in 2025 showed resilient growth amid uncertainties, with emerging markets becoming the main growth engines, which, combined with China's policy support and industrial upgrades, creates structural opportunities in the capital market [3][4]. - The investment environment is anticipated to shift from single valuation recovery to a dual-driven phase of profit improvement and valuation uplift [3][4]. Group 2: Capital Inflows and Funding Sources - The most certain source of incremental capital in 2026 is expected to be insurance funds, with foreign capital gradually shifting from trading to allocation, particularly in high-end manufacturing and technology sectors [2][7]. - Resident savings represent a significant potential slow variable, with some funds expected to migrate to equity markets through wealth management and public funds [2][7]. - The structure of incremental capital in 2026 is likely to be characterized by "multiple channels, low volatility, and long cycles," with insurance funds, foreign capital, and resident savings being the main contributors [7]. Group 3: Sector Opportunities and Focus Areas - The technology sector remains the main line of industry allocation, with a focus on the performance visibility and elasticity of computing infrastructure and key hardware being higher than that of application layers [8][10]. - High-end manufacturing and advanced industrial systems are expected to continue benefiting from manufacturing upgrades, while energy transition and new power systems are also important directions for investment [10]. - Industries related to resource security and supply chain safety, such as non-ferrous metals and key materials, are anticipated to have stable medium- to long-term demand support [10]. Group 4: Risk Assessment and Market Dynamics - The evolution of risks related to real estate and local government debt is transitioning from "emergency response" to "long-term management," while external demand uncertainty is identified as the most significant variable affecting the market in 2026 [5][6]. - The core of external demand uncertainty lies in the unpredictable external environment, which can directly disrupt domestic economic recovery and influence macro policy adjustments [6]. Group 5: Asset Allocation Recommendations - For balanced investors in 2026, an initial asset allocation recommendation is 55%-60% in stocks, 30%-35% in bonds, and 5%-10% in gold, focusing on capturing structural opportunities in hard technology, high-end manufacturing, and cyclical upgrades [12][13]. - Stocks should be the core allocation, while bonds can provide stability against market volatility, and gold should serve as a long-term strategic asset to hedge against geopolitical risks and external demand fluctuations [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The inflow of funds into thematic ETFs has significantly accelerated since the beginning of the year, indicating a shift in investor preferences towards these investment vehicles [1][5]. Group 1: ETF Growth and Performance - As of the end of January, 14 ETFs have seen their scales increase by over 10 billion yuan, with resource and technology-related ETFs being particularly prominent [2][3]. - Resource-related ETFs, especially those focused on non-ferrous metals and gold, have shown remarkable growth, with the Huaan Gold ETF increasing by 33.54 billion yuan and the Southern CSI Non-ferrous Metals ETF growing by 24.22 billion yuan in January alone [3][4]. - Technology-themed ETFs have also attracted significant investment, particularly in sectors like power grids, satellites, and semiconductor equipment, reflecting a sustained interest in these growth areas [3][4]. Group 2: Performance of High-Quality Products - The ETFs that have expanded significantly are generally backed by strong performance, with the Huaan Gold ETF and Southern CSI Non-ferrous Metals ETF rising by 19.34% and 23.15% respectively since the beginning of the year [4]. - Other notable performers include the Huaxia CSI Electric Grid Equipment ETF, which has increased by 16.16%, and the Guotai CSI Semiconductor Materials Equipment ETF, which has risen by 19.49% [4]. - The strong performance of the underlying indices, such as SGE Gold 9999 and non-ferrous metals, has provided direct support for the rapid expansion of these ETFs [4]. Group 3: Thematic ETFs as Investment Tools - The recent trend shows that investors prefer to use ETFs to participate in thematic market opportunities, which are often linked to clear industrial logic or economic conditions [6]. - ETFs offer a transparent and efficient way for investors to track overall sector performance, especially in a market characterized by thematic dominance and stock performance divergence [6]. - The diversification of ETF holdings helps mitigate the impact of individual stock volatility, aligning with the needs of investors looking to make concentrated investments at the beginning of the year [6].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the significant advancements in the space photovoltaic industry, emphasizing the high barriers to entry and the advantages of China's photovoltaic supply chain in accelerating market growth [1][2]. Sub-industry Weekly Core Views Photovoltaics & Energy Storage - There is a resonance between the demand for ground data centers and space computing, with the U.S. demand for "self-controlled" photovoltaic systems intensifying, benefiting core enterprises in the photovoltaic sector [2]. - Major companies in the photovoltaic supply chain are releasing annual performance forecasts, confirming a "performance bottom" in Q4, alongside improved asset quality, positioning them well for a recovery in 2026 [1][2]. Wind Power - The UK government announced the results of the AR7 offshore wind auction, totaling 8.4 GW, exceeding market expectations of 6-7 GW, which strengthens the outlook for domestic supply chain exports amid capacity shortages in Europe [2][4]. Power Grid - The State Grid's investment plan for the 14th Five-Year Plan is set at 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase from the previous plan, establishing a strong foundation for long-term domestic market growth [3]. - Recent incidents in North America, such as transformer explosions, highlight the ongoing need for infrastructure upgrades, reinforcing the demand for new power grid solutions [3]. Lithium Batteries - New regulations on battery recycling will take effect on April 1, 2026, emphasizing a "vehicle-battery integrated scrapping" system and establishing a digital identity for batteries [3]. - Fulin Precision plans to raise 3.175 billion yuan to enhance its production of lithium iron phosphate and advance its strategic positioning in the industry [3]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - Inner Mongolia has optimized the economic viability of green hydrogen projects, with significant sales expected in the hydrogen vehicle market by 2025 [3][5]. - The government is actively supporting the hydrogen industry, indicating an imminent surge in development [3][5]. Recent Significant Industry Events - JunDa Co. has officially launched investments in space photovoltaic projects, expanding its product offerings [4]. - Strategic collaborations have been established between companies like Dongfang Risen and Shanghai Port for advanced photovoltaic technologies [4]. - The results of the UK AR7 offshore wind auction have been announced, with a total capacity of 8.4 GW, surpassing expectations [4].

【中泰电新】特高压项目规划加速，重点关注电网板块 #事件。 #电网4万亿预期下，特高压表现有望加速。 "十四五"期间国家电网固定资产完成度125%，"十五五"有望继续超额完成，预计国网固定资产投资复合增速在6.2- 13%。 历史上看，电网投资增长主要由特高压拉动，十五五期间特高压年度投资有望突破2500亿，较当前水平有望翻 倍。 #特高压项目储备丰富，26年待核准项目较多。 1月30日，记者从自治区政府新闻办组织举行的"国网内蒙古东部电力有限公司社会责任报告"新闻发布会上获 悉："十五五"期间，内蒙古特高压电网外送电需求大幅增长，计划开工建设"六交六直"12项特高压输电线路工程， 分别为达拉特—蒙西、达拉特—大同、乌兰察布—大同、巴彦淖尔—包头—乌兰察布（2项）、达拉特—包头6项 特高压交流输电线路工程和蒙西—京津冀、腾格 【中泰电新】特高压项目规划加速，重点关注电网板块 #事件。 1月30日，记者从自治区政府新闻办组织举行的"国网内蒙古东部电力有限公司社会责任报告"新闻发布会上获 悉："十五五"期间，内蒙古特高压电网外送电需求大幅增长，计划开工建设"六交六直"12项特高压输电线路工程， 分别为达拉特—蒙西 ...

◎记者 王文嫣 在"双碳"目标下，新能源继续保持较大投产规模。中电联专家预计，2026年全年新增发电装机有望超过 4亿千瓦。其中：新增新能源发电装机有望超过3亿千瓦；新增有效发电能力1亿千瓦左右，与最大负荷 增量基本持平；风、光装机合计占比有望达到总装机的一半左右，其中太阳能发电装机规模预计将首次 超过煤电装机。此外，专家预计，到2026年底，全国发电装机容量将达到43亿千瓦左右。其中：非化石 能源发电装机为27亿千瓦，占总装机的63%左右；煤电装机占总装机比重将降至31%左右。 业界对此的解读是，我国的能源结构转型将持续提速，未来的能源系统将以风电、光伏等清洁能源为主 力。但由于新能源发电具有不稳定性，电网的作用就显得尤为重要。 中电联规划发展部副主任刘志强对上海证券报记者表示，在能源强国建设中，要进一步发挥电力在国民 经济中的基础和先导作用。一体推进主配微网协同的新型电网平台建设，增强电网智能化调度能力，保 障新型电力系统安全稳定运行等。 电网投资方向进一步细化 近期，国家电网公司宣布，"十五五"期间固定资产投资预计将达到4万亿元，较"十四五"增长40%。南 方电网公司则宣布，2026年固定资产投资将安排 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Youxunda (300514), has established a solid technical foundation and practical application in the field of power grid communication and energy metering, which supports its business growth and adaptability in the industry [1] Group 1: Company Development - The company has been deeply engaged in the power grid industry for a long time, developing mature technologies in field network communication and energy metering [1] - The company is capable of effectively supporting applications such as power grid equipment access, on-site communication, and data collection [1] - The company plans to closely monitor the investment direction of the State Grid and industry technology development trends to seize market opportunities for steady business growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - By 2025, China's energy supply security capacity will be significantly enhanced, with multiple important policy measures being introduced to solidify the foundation for a new energy system, promoting green energy development and high-quality investment opportunities [1]. Investment and Project Completion - National energy investment is expected to maintain rapid growth, with key project investments exceeding 3.5 trillion yuan, marking an 11% year-on-year increase, outpacing infrastructure and manufacturing growth by 12.9 and 10.1 percentage points respectively [3]. - The production of raw coal remains stable, with a 1.2% increase in industrial raw coal output. Oil and gas production will reach historical highs, with industrial crude oil output increasing by 1.5% and natural gas output by 6.2% [3]. Renewable Energy and Market Transactions - New installed capacity for wind and solar energy is projected to exceed 430 million kilowatts, with total installed capacity surpassing 1.8 billion kilowatts, accounting for over 60% of renewable energy generation capacity [3]. - Renewable energy generation is expected to reach approximately 4 trillion kilowatt-hours, exceeding the combined electricity consumption of the EU's 27 countries [3]. - The cumulative electricity trading volume in the national power market is anticipated to reach 6.64 trillion kilowatt-hours, a 7.4% increase year-on-year, with market-based transactions accounting for 64% of total electricity consumption, up 1.3 percentage points [3]. Green Electricity Trading and Certificates - Green electricity trading volume is projected to reach 328.5 billion kilowatt-hours, a 38.3% increase year-on-year, with long-term green electricity agreements totaling 60 billion kilowatt-hours [4]. - The green certificate market is expected to see significant growth, with cumulative transactions reaching 930 million certificates, a 120% increase year-on-year, and the average transaction price rising by 90% in the second half of 2025 [4]. Power Grid Development - China has established the world's largest and most complex AC/DC hybrid power grid, enhancing resource allocation capabilities with 45 ultra-high voltage transmission channels [6]. - The grid supports an annual average of 80 million kilowatts of new power load demand, ensuring reliable electricity supply equivalent to the total consumption of the US, EU, and Japan combined [6]. New Energy Storage Growth - New energy storage capacity is expected to grow by 84% by the end of 2025, reaching 136 million kilowatts/351 million kilowatt-hours, a more than 40-fold increase compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [10]. - The average storage duration is projected to increase to 2.58 hours, with significant contributions from regions like North China and Northwest China [10][11]. Future Grid Development - The future power system will exhibit high penetration of new energy, high electrification, and increased complexity, necessitating new requirements for grid development [7]. - The upcoming focus will be on constructing a coordinated development framework for main, distribution, and micro grids, enhancing the overall efficiency and reliability of the power supply [8].

国家能源局1月30日举行季度例行新闻发布会，介绍全国能源形势等情况。 国家能源局发展规划司副司长邢翼腾表示，2025年我国能源供应保障能力有效提升，供需总体宽松，行 业健康有序发展，新型能源体系建设基础持续夯实，助力我国经济持续回升向好。 可再生能源年发电量超过欧盟27国用电量之和 "2025年是'十四五'以来能源保供成效最好的一年。"邢冀腾说。 数据显示，全年规上工业原煤产量同比增长1.2%，油、气产量双创历史新高，规上工业原油、天然气 产量分别同比增长1.5%和6.2%。一批特高压直流输电工程投产送电，电力系统互补互济水平持续提 升。 "1月27日，全国统调电厂电煤库存2.2亿吨，可用26天，秦皇岛港5500大卡动力煤长协价格684元/吨，环 渤海港口5500大卡动力煤现货价格694元/吨，迎峰度冬煤炭供应基础坚实可靠，市场运行平稳有 序。"刘明阳介绍。 油气供应总体平稳。进入采暖季以来，国家发展改革委、国家能源局已联合启动天然气保供日报告制度 和周例会会商机制。截至1月27日，全国采暖季天然气累计消费量1195.2亿立方米，同比增长4.6%，国 产气和进口管道气维持高位平稳运行，地下储气库和沿海LNG接 ...

1 电网投资迈入新阶段 在能源转型与数字革命交汇的时代，铜、铝的长期需求格局正被重新定义：中国"十五五"规划以特高压与配网智能化为核心的电网结构性投资、全球光伏产 业从高速增长迈向高质量发展平台期的深刻转型，以及由AI引爆的全球数据中心建设与升级浪潮。这三者逻辑各异、节奏不同，却共同构成了研判铜、铝 未来需求的宏观框架。厘清这三大驱动力的内在机制与互动关系，至关重要。 我国电网建设已从规模扩张阶段全面转入以构建新型电力系统为核心的高质量发展阶段。自2025年以来，电网投资总量攀升至历史新高的同时，其结构正经 历从"重电源"到"重消纳与输送"的深刻转型，这为铜、铝消费提供了结构化且持续的核心驱动力。 从投资结构看，重心明确聚焦于三大方向：首先是特高压骨干网架建设，这是保障"沙戈荒"等大型清洁能源基地电力外送的关键。2025年已有陇东—山东、 宁夏—湖南等多个特高压工程投产，蒙西—京津冀等新工程开工。预计"十五五"期间特高压总投资规模有望达到8000亿元以上，年平均投资额1600亿元以 上。其次是配电网智能化升级。为适应海量分布式新能源和充电桩接入，配电网向有源双向交互系统转型。预计"十五五"期间配电网投资CAG ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 氢氨醇：1月30日，中共中央政治局就前瞻布局和发展未来产业进行了集体学习。"十五五"期间，基于中 国未来产业、26年欧盟碳关税双重利好加持下，看好氢氨醇统筹、规模化、超前建设，碳、氢等相关政 策、也可与化工板块形成轮动； 太空光伏：讨论技术和基本面意义不大，当前市场流动性充裕，且商业航天是主线之一、光伏板块机构持 仓较低，相关行情或将具有一定持续性； 权重股反弹：经过一段时间整体调整后，权重股标的股价均有一定性价比，具有一定配置价值。 （2）可持续波段性操作： AIDC电源：关注国产算力机会，看好国内AIDC建设，亦可配合AI应用形成板块轮动；海外层面HVDC方 案放量、SST技术合作进展有望兑现； 户储：英国150亿英镑"温暖家庭计划"预计到2030年将新增安装300万户的光伏，叠加美国极端天气、澳洲 户储补贴政策等催化，板块估值有望持续提升； 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限 ...