Q&A 明年（2026 年）石化和化工行业的整体景气度如何？ 石化化工核心推荐方向更新 20251207 摘要 化工行业明年预计进入供需再平衡阶段，受益于全球降息周期催生的化 工品需求和海外部分产能退出，新兴需求领域如储能电池材料和生物航 空燃料将显著增长，带动相关材料复苏。 原油价格明年预计在 55~65 美元区间窄幅波动，利好下游油头化工、 炼化、炼油环节利润修复。海外裂解价差维持高位，副产物如硫磺、石 油焦利润水平较高，为国内炼厂提供利润附加值。 钾肥市场 2026 年大合同价格坚挺，国内库存较低，海外供应端价格上 涨。亚钾国际小东部矿区 100 万吨产能投放，预示明年量增长确定性强， 看好未来两年钾肥市场景气度。 MDI 价格近期上涨，受亨斯曼荷兰装置意外停车和国内企业检修计划影 响，供给端出现扰动，预计 12 月和 1 月 MDI 价格继续上涨。关注万华 化学、上海亨斯迈、重庆巴斯夫等企业动态。 磷矿石供给刚性且需求增加，资源稀缺性支撑高位运行。锂电产业链开 工率提升，六氟磷酸锂价格上涨。重点推荐川恒股份、云天化以及兴发 集团等企业。 近期 MDI 价格出现上涨，主要由于亨斯曼荷兰装置意外停车导致欧 ...

的确在科普行业"安全准入"的文章里，有厂区的标语显示为"进入厂区请放弃一切自治"。在"燕山石化炼油厂"的公众号中，在安全生产 月，厂领导班子专门开专题研讨"进门者请放弃一切自治"。 在该讨论中，有领导提到，这是恩格斯在《论权威》一书中套用但丁《神曲》里的题词，大工厂是以"进门者放弃一切自治"为特征的。 这种集体意志往往反映为各种规章制度，通过劳动者遵守劳动纪律，使劳动者的个人意志纳入到集体意志的轨道。其称，这里所说的"放 弃一切自治"，"不是限制我们的自由，而是要求我们要遵守国家、企业的制度要求，统一行为规范。" 近日，一家工厂悬挂的标语"进入厂区，请自觉放弃一切自由"在网络引发热议。 有网友发帖，感慨"别人都只敢在心里想，土老板敢做成大字报贴在门脸上"，还有网友直接吐槽，"厂区还是园区啊？不看IP我以为缅北 呢"，"但凡写个'生产安全大于一切'都没这么搞笑"。 来源/小红书截图 该帖子爆料涉事企业疑为广西恒逸新材料有限公司（下称广西恒逸）。天眼查上显示，法定代表人为沈飞，系A股上市公司恒逸石化 （000703）的子公司，据2024年工商年报，参保人数为690人。 不过也有网友解释，标语中的"此自由，非彼认为 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry Strategy for 2026 Industry Overview - The petrochemical and chemical industry is currently experiencing a bottoming phase due to excessive capital expenditure driven by surging demand for new energy, leading to a supply-demand mismatch. Capital expenditure has significantly contracted in 2024, limiting new capacity additions. With the global interest rate cut cycle and improved trade relations, demand is expected to recover, benefiting stock trading strategies [1][2]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Oil Price Forecast**: It is anticipated that the oil price will stabilize around $60 per barrel in 2026, supported by OPEC+ halting production increases and a reduction in U.S. shale oil output. The price may fluctuate between $60 and $65, with potential temporary dips below $50 [4]. - **Natural Gas Demand**: The demand for natural gas is expected to grow significantly due to its role as a transitional clean energy source, with a projected 50% increase in apparent consumption by 2040 compared to 2024 or 2025. This trend is favorable for upstream companies like PetroChina [4][7]. - **Potash and Phosphate Industry**: International potash prices are expected to remain high due to natural demand growth and oligopolistic market conditions. Domestic companies like Yara International may see increased volumes due to China's strong reliance on potash resources. In the phosphate sector, the value of phosphate rock is being reassessed due to its application in energy storage, with demand expected to rise [5][6][8]. - **Fluorochemical Industry**: The fluorochemical sector is projected to have a positive outlook in 2026, with rising prices for refrigerants and PVDF driven by battery demand. The domestic PVDF industry operates at only 50% capacity, but a tight balance is expected for lithium battery-grade PVDF in 2026 [9]. - **Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)**: 2025 marked the beginning of SAF in Europe, with mandatory blending requirements. The demand and prices for SAF are expected to rise, with significant growth potential in regions like Singapore, South Korea, and Japan [10]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Opportunities**: The report highlights investment opportunities in various segments, including potash, phosphate, fluorochemical, and sustainable aviation fuel. The overall growth rate in these sectors is expected to remain robust over the next couple of years, promising good investment returns [12]. - **Impact of Battery Technology**: The demand for phosphate rock in the battery sector is projected to grow rapidly, with phosphate rock usage in battery production nearing 20%. The declining quality of domestic phosphate rock will further increase consumption rates, driving price and value reassessment [8]. - **Performance of Major Companies**: PetroChina is expected to benefit from stable growth in its natural gas business, while Sinopec may see recovery in its refining segment, aided by low-cost advantages and expanded overseas price differentials [7]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the petrochemical and chemical industry's outlook for 2026, along with specific investment opportunities and company performances.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol have all experienced a peak in rapid capacity expansion in the past 5 - 6 years, but the capacity growth rate in 2025 significantly declined compared to the previous peak. The production growth rate of PX and PTA also dropped notably. Polyester products, being closer to the downstream, have shown a steady overall growth in capacity. Although the capacity growth rate in the past two years has also slowed down, the decline is not as significant as that of PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol. It is expected that in 2026, the polyester capacity will continue to grow moderately, while the capacity growth rate of mid - upstream products will slow down significantly. In the long - term, the supply - demand situation of the industrial chain will generally improve [9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. PX Enters the Stage of Low - Capacity Growth with Limited Room for Utilization Rate Increase - **PX new device production may be postponed due to strict control of refining capacity**: From 2019 - 2023, affected by the commissioning of private refining and chemical integration devices, PX new devices were intensively put into production, with the capacity growth rate exceeding 20% in multiple years. Since the second half of 2023, no new PX devices have been commissioned. In September 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other seven departments issued a work plan, requiring strict control of new refining capacity and reasonable determination of the scale and pace of new PX capacity. Some large - scale PX devices planned for 2026 - 2028 may be postponed. Even if they are commissioned as scheduled, the capacity growth rate will significantly decline compared to the 2019 - 2023 peak [14]. - **PX utilization rate is difficult to increase significantly due to maintenance needs**: PX devices need regular maintenance, and the maintenance time is usually longer than that of PTA, resulting in a certain amount of maintenance loss every year. The PX utilization rate fluctuates throughout the year, and the high - utilization rate usually lasts for no more than three months. In recent years, the average annual utilization rate has been around 81.5%, and it is expected that there will be limited room for further improvement in 2026 [18]. 2. In 2026, PTA Enters a Gap Period of New Capacity Commissioning, and the Utilization Rate Affects Supply - **The pressure of PTA capacity growth eases as there are no new device commissioning plans in 2026**: From 2019 - 2025, China's PTA capacity continued to expand, with high growth rates in some years. In 2025, three new PTA devices were commissioned, with a net increase in capacity of 7.5 million tons per year. In 2026, there are no new PTA device commissioning plans, and although there are multiple devices planned for 2027 - 2028, the overall capacity growth rate from 2024 - 2026 is relatively low [20][23]. - **PTA utilization rate has room for increase due to production efficiency**: This year, the PTA spot processing fee has been poor, which generally affects the industry's utilization rate. In 2025, the average PTA utilization rate was 78.4%, a decrease of 4 percentage points from the previous year. In 2026, on one hand, the supply growth pressure is reduced due to no new device commissioning; on the other hand, there is potential for the utilization rate to increase and boost production [24][25]. 3. Ethylene Glycol New Devices Are Scheduled to Be Commissioned at the End of Next Year, and the Supply Growth Pressure Is Expected to Be Limited - **Some ethylene glycol new devices may be postponed**: From 2020 - 2023, the ethylene glycol capacity growth rate was high, but it significantly declined from 2024. In 2025, the capacity increased by 1.4 million tons per year, with a growth rate of 4.6%. From 2026 - 2027, there are still many new device commissioning plans, with a total planned capacity of 5.35 million tons per year. However, due to poor production efficiency, some devices may be postponed. In 2026, only Huajin Aramco's 400,000 - ton - per - year device is planned to be commissioned in the first half of the year, so the new - capacity pressure in the first half of the year is small, while the market will focus more on the commissioning of new devices in the second half of the year [29][30]. - **There is still potential for the ethylene glycol utilization rate to increase**: This year, the profit of oil - based ethylene glycol has improved compared to last year, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was good before July, promoting an increase in the utilization rate. In 2025, the average utilization rate of oil - based ethylene glycol increased by 2.6 percentage points, that of coal - based ethylene glycol increased by 4.9 percentage points, and the comprehensive utilization rate was 59.7%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points from last year. The ethylene glycol production increased due to factors such as a slight increase in capacity, an increase in utilization rate, and a significant increase in imports. Although there are many new device commissioning plans in 2026, the actual supply increase may be limited, and there is limited room for the utilization rate to continue increasing [33][34]. 4. Outlook In 2026, the capacity growth rate of PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol will continue to slow down. PTA capacity is expected to have zero growth, and the supply pressure will be small. Polyester capacity is expected to maintain a certain positive growth due to economic growth and reduced uncertainties in exports. The demand for polyester raw materials will slightly increase, and the supply - demand relationship will gradually improve. The low - price and low - profit state of the polyester industrial chain is expected to improve, and the certainty of improved production profit is relatively high [39].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the petrochemical industry is experiencing a recovery phase after a downturn, with expectations for improved profitability and demand growth in the coming years [1][2]. - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) has shown stability, with a net inflow of funds in 8 out of the last 10 trading days, totaling 24.13 million yuan, and its latest share count reaching a record high of 227 million [1]. - According to Guosen Securities, the petrochemical industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability by the third quarter of 2025, with a projected year-on-year net profit growth of 10.56% [1]. Group 2 - The petrochemical industry is characterized by significant cyclicality, having peaked in profitability in 2021 and entering a downward cycle thereafter [1]. - Supply-side factors indicate a decline in capital expenditure over several quarters, signaling the end of the expansion cycle, while policies aimed at reducing excess capacity are expected to alleviate supply surplus issues [1]. - On the demand side, a global interest rate reduction cycle is anticipated to support a moderate recovery in traditional demand, with emerging sectors such as new energy storage, AI, and aviation decarbonization driving growth in specific chemical products [1]. Group 3 - The composition of the Petrochemical ETF closely follows the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 60.85% and the oil and petrochemical industry for 32.16% [2]. - The industry is shifting focus from quantity growth to quality improvement, with expectations for sustained upward trends in supply-demand dynamics [2].

Core Insights - The petrochemical ETF (159731) has seen a recent increase in net inflow, totaling 13.1 million yuan over the past three days, indicating strong investor interest [1][3] - The petrochemical ETF's net asset value has risen by 22.83% over the past six months, showcasing its strong performance [3] - The chemical industry is expected to enter a favorable investment period as the market transitions from Q3 reports to year-end reports, with a focus on potential growth opportunities [3] Summary by Category ETF Performance - The petrochemical ETF's latest price is 0.81 yuan, with a total share count reaching 227 million, marking a one-year high [1] - The ETF's total scale has reached 184 million yuan, also a one-year high [1] - The highest monthly return since inception was 15.86%, with an average monthly return of 5.06% during rising months [3] Market Trends - The overall weighted operating rate in the chemical industry is at a historical high, while price differentials remain at the bottom, indicating potential for a reversal as inventory decreases [3] - The petrochemical industry is expected to accelerate its transformation and upgrading with the introduction of the "Petrochemical Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" [3] Major Holdings - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index account for 56.05% of the index, including major companies like Wanhua Chemical and China Petroleum [3]

Core Viewpoint - The "Work Plan for Steady Growth in the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)" emphasizes the need for safety upgrades and the comprehensive renovation of outdated facilities in the petrochemical sector to enhance efficiency and safety [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - There are significant issues with outdated facilities in China's petrochemical enterprises, including inadequate risk management and a lack of proactive measures to address safety hazards [2][3]. - The definition of outdated facilities remains ambiguous, complicating the upgrade process and leading to resource wastage [4]. - Investment challenges exist for updating outdated equipment, as the refining industry faces financial pressures, necessitating government support through subsidies and tax reductions [4]. Group 2: Recommendations for Improvement - A comprehensive assessment of equipment should be conducted to create a registry, ensuring that outdated and unsafe facilities are eliminated [3]. - Advanced technologies should be employed to enhance equipment integrity and predictive maintenance capabilities, including online monitoring and leak detection systems [3]. - Policy support should be increased to raise standards for updating and renovating outdated facilities, integrating various policies related to industrial upgrades and environmental safety [3]. Group 3: Progress and Initiatives - Some companies, like Jinling Petrochemical, have made progress by identifying and assessing facilities over 30 years old, implementing safety evaluations, and planning for gradual retirement of outdated units [5]. - Jiangsu Huachang Chemical is advancing projects for intelligent upgrades in ammonia synthesis and energy-saving modifications in urea production, aiming to reduce energy consumption significantly [5][6]. - Lanzhou Petrochemical is focused on enhancing the technical level of existing outdated facilities and applying new technologies to support product development and industrial revitalization [6].

Core Viewpoint - Hengli Petrochemical reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.023 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.61%, while Q3 net profit reached 1.972 billion yuan, showing year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increases of 81.47% and 97.41% respectively [1] Financial Performance - The recovery of PX price differentials contributed to improved profitability in Q3 [1] - The company is expected to balance performance growth and shareholder returns effectively as capital expenditures are anticipated to slow down with the commissioning of ongoing projects [1] Industry Outlook - The petrochemical industry is expected to benefit from policy support, leading to scientific regulation of refining capacity and accelerated transformation and upgrading of the petrochemical sector [1] - As a leading private refining enterprise, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on these industry trends [1] Profit Forecast - Projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated to be 7.133 billion, 9.485 billion, and 11.421 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 19x, 15x, and 12x [1] - Based on historical valuation averages and the current cycle position, a target price of 27.00 yuan for 2026 is set, maintaining a "strong buy" rating [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a collective rise in the three major indices, with the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index increasing by approximately 0.4%, driven by strong performances from constituent stocks such as Tongcheng New Materials, Shengquan Group, and Kaisa Bio [1] - The third Petrochemical Industry High-Quality Development Forum emphasized the need for a high-quality transformation and upgrading of the petrochemical industry, focusing on new productive forces, innovation, green development, and safety [1] - Guosen Securities noted that stricter approval for new chemical product capacities and the accelerated elimination of outdated capacities will effectively alleviate the oversupply issue in the petrochemical and chemical industry [1] Group 2 - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) closely tracks the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index, with the top three sectors being refining and trading (26.76%), chemical products (22.41%), and agricultural chemicals (21.14%) [2] - The petrochemical industry is expected to benefit significantly from policies aimed at reducing competition, structural adjustments, and the elimination of outdated capacities, with a clear direction towards green, low-carbon, and intelligent development [2]

Industry Overview - The petrochemical industry is cyclical, with net profits in the SW basic chemical sector reaching a historical high in 2021, followed by a downturn. By 2024, industry net profits are expected to be only 52% of 2021 levels, but some sub-industries are beginning to recover, with a 10.56% year-on-year increase in net profits for the first three quarters [1] Supply Side - Investment in fixed assets for the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing industry turned negative starting June 2025, with capital expenditures in the SW basic chemical sector and several sub-industries declining for multiple consecutive quarters. The current expansion cycle in the industry is nearing its end. The "anti-involution" policy introduced in July aims to address low-price disorderly competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, with responses from sub-industries like pesticides, petrochemicals, and PTA polyester [2] Demand Side - Traditional demand is expected to see a mild recovery due to global central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle and pausing balance sheet reductions, supported by monetary and fiscal policy stimuli. Emerging demand is driven by sectors such as new energy and AI, with key chemical materials being crucial for technological upgrades. The company is optimistic about the rapid increase in new energy storage capacity impacting iron phosphate and PVDF, AI industry growth affecting high-frequency and high-speed electronic resins, and the aviation industry's decarbonization efforts boosting demand for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) [3] Overseas Capacity Reduction - The European chemical industry is experiencing a wave of plant shutdowns due to high energy costs and aging facilities. Currently, China's chemical product sales account for over 40% of the global market. The domestic petrochemical industry chain is well-established, with many chemical products being highly competitive globally. In the context of accelerated overseas capacity reduction and anticipated demand recovery, the company believes that Chinese chemical enterprises will continue to increase their global market share, effectively alleviating excess capacity [4]