黄金价格震荡：是抄底良机还是谨慎观望？ 近期金价持续下跌，引发市场广泛关注。7月1日，现货黄金跌破3250美元/盎司，创下近一个月新低。国内市场亦受到波及，各大金店零售价纷纷下调。例 如，部分金条价格已降至770-780元/克左右，较近期高点便宜数十元，甚至上百元。这给众多潜在买家带来一个关键问题：现在是否应该出手购买黄金？ 价格深度剖析：金价跌至何方？ 7月1日，国内主要银行的金条价格如下：工商银行774.09元/克，建设银行775元/克，中国银行773.71元/克，农业银行778.4元/克。与一些大型金店相比，价 格存在差异。例如，水贝黄金当日报价仅为772元/克，而周大福、六福、金至尊等品牌则维持在989元/克左右的高价位，部分品牌如周六福和中国黄金，当 日价格则降至969元/克。 这种价格差异主要源于首饰金和投资金条不同的定价逻辑。投资金条价格更贴近国际金价波动，受国际市场影响较大；而首饰金则包含了加工费、品牌溢价 等成本，因此价格通常高于投资金条。 投资策略：是抄底还是观望？ 购买首饰： 如果你有购买黄金首饰的需求，例如结婚、节日送礼等，那么现在无疑是省钱的好时机。年轻宝妈趁低价购买小金豆，为孩子未 ...

代码：002867 证券简称：周大生 编号：2025-029 周大生珠宝股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 投资者关系活动类别 □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 □新闻发布会 □路演活动 ☑现场参观 ☑其他(电话会议) 参与单位名称 及人员姓名 共计 6 位投资者（排名不分先后）： 银华基金：张萍 前海开源：孔芳 南方基金：赵舜 信达证券：骆峥 东财消费：张诗宇 人保养老：吴强 时 间 2025 年 7 月 3 日 地 点 总部会议室 上市公司接待人员 姓名 证券事务代表：周晓达 投资者关系活动 主要内容介绍 一、 问答环节： 投资者主要就行业情况、国家宝藏、产品结构、终端销售情况、分 红等问题进行了交流，并参观了公司展厅，可参阅前次活动记录表之问 答和已披露公告。 接待过程中，公司严格按照《信息披露管理制度》等规定，保证信 息披露的真实、准确、完整、及时、公平，没有出现未公开重大信息泄 露等情况。同时，现场调研的投资者已按深交所要求签署承诺函。 附件清单（如有） 无 日期 2025 年 7 月 3 日 ...

7月3日国内黄金市场动态：品牌金店首饰金价再次上涨，大部分金店金价再次超过千元大关。具体来看，周生生黄金今日 大涨10元/克，报价1010元/克，重新成为最高价金店。上海中国黄金也是大涨13元/克，报价969元/克，还是最低价金店。今 日品牌金店价差41元/克（1010元/克-969元/克），价差稍有缩小。 今日黄金价格上涨，铂金价格同样上涨。还是拿周生生黄金来说，今日黄金饰品价格上涨10元/克，铂金饰品价格大涨18元/ 克，报价569元/克。若您还关注其他品牌铂金报价（如老庙、六福等），欢迎留言告知！我们将实时汇总更新，助您一手掌 握市场动态。 昨日现货黄金整体保持震荡，晚间疲软的美国经济数据强化了市场对美联储的降息预期，推动金价上涨。最终收报3357.73 美元/盎司，涨幅0.59%。今日金价又有震荡趋势，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3357.49美元/盎司，跌幅0.01%。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： 昨晚公布的美国6月ADP就业人数录得-3.3万人，预期9.5万人，前值3.7万人。这一数据直接加剧市场对美国经济放缓的担 忧，市场避险情绪大涨。而据CME美联储观察最新数据显示，市场对美联储9月降息预期 ...

| | 周大生足金999 | 1005 元/克 | | --- | --- | --- | | છે 集酒苗铺 | 菜百首饰足金999饰品 | 982 元/克 | | | 潮宏基足金(首饰摆件) | 1005 元/克 | | TSL 謝瑞朗 | 谢瑞麟足金饰品 | 1005 元/克 | | 3 3 6 6 | 金至尊足金999 | 1005 元/克 | @ JIN10.COM 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 国内金饰较昨日涨7元/克 金十数据7月3日讯，金十图示：国内多家黄金珠宝品牌公布的境内足金首饰价格较昨日涨7元/克，多家报1005元/克。 ...

盈利预测与估值 考虑到老铺黄金持续破圈，终端销售高景气延续，且公司布局海外市场，进一步打开成长空间；同时， 随着公司品牌力及议价能力的提升，商场租金扣点有望进一步改善，且收入规模快速增长有望带动费用 率下行，我们上调25-27 年归母净利润40%/42%/43%至49.1/62.1/75.8 亿元。传统大众珠宝/奢侈品可比公 司25 年iFind/彭博一致预期17x/33xPE。考虑到老铺黄金高成长势头强劲，且品牌定位高端、稀缺性突 出，给予25 年38.5xPE，对应目标价1200 港币（前值840 港币基于25 年37 倍PE）。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧、黄金价格震荡、消费信心恢复不达预期、门店拓展计划不及预期。 新店扩张与老店升级持续推进，进驻高端商圈，夯实高端品牌调性截至2024 年底，老铺黄金已在全国 15 个核心城市布局36 家自营门店，进驻包括SKP、万象城在内的26 家主力高端商场。2025 年以来，公 司陆续开设北京东方天地禅房主题店（1 月）、深圳罗湖万象城B1 精品店（3 月）、北京SKP-S 店（4 月）、上海港汇恒隆店（5 月）、新加坡店（6 月）、上海IFC 店（6 月），门店选址 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Laopu Gold, is expanding its presence with new store openings and is set to experience a significant unlock of shares, which may impact its stock performance in the near term [1][2]. Company Overview - Laopu Gold, established in 2009, is a leading brand in promoting traditional Chinese gold craftsmanship and has positioned itself as a high-end brand in the gold jewelry market [1][3]. - The company has successfully opened its first overseas store in Singapore and plans to open another in Shanghai, bringing its total to 36 stores across 15 cities by the end of 2024 [1]. Sales Performance - The company has reported strong same-store sales driven by rising gold prices, competitive pricing, and the introduction of new products [2]. - The increase in gold prices has benefited Laopu Gold, as it employs a fixed pricing model, allowing it to maintain a competitive edge over traditional jewelry brands [2]. Industry Analysis - The outlook for gold prices remains positive, with expectations of continued upward movement, potentially exceeding $3,500 per ounce [2]. - Factors influencing gold prices include U.S. fiscal policies, asset allocation shifts, and geopolitical stability [2]. Brand Positioning - Laopu Gold is enhancing its luxury brand image through elegant store designs and personalized customer service, appealing to high-net-worth individuals [3]. - The company draws inspiration from established luxury brands, adopting strategies such as exclusivity and high-end retail locations to elevate its brand perception [3]. Cultural Significance - The company emphasizes craftsmanship and incorporates traditional Chinese cultural elements into its product designs, contributing to its unique market position [3]. - Laopu Gold has created nearly 2,000 original designs and holds numerous patents and copyrights, showcasing its commitment to innovation and cultural representation [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue growth is projected at 128%, 39%, and 12% for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth expected at 172%, 48%, and 19% respectively [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 23, 34, and 41 yuan for the same period, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 34x, 23x, and 20x [4].

在对冲美元信用走弱的需求驱动下，黄金价格"一飞冲天"，不断创下历史新高。4月下旬，在黄金价格涨势暂歇之 后，铂金接棒黄金，出现一波强势上涨走势，截至7月1日，其年度涨幅高达49.2%，而在2024年则下跌了9.8%。 笔者认为，铂金价格的大幅上涨，既源于供应端的收缩效应，也是需求扩张的结果。其中汽车尾气催化剂所引发的 需求、黄金价格上涨带来的首饰替代需求和美元走弱带来的投资需求共同发力，供需缺口促使铂金价格上涨。由于 铂金供应弹性较小，铂金价格由需求驱动的涨势尚未结束。 对黄金的替代需求大幅提高 从铂金的需求结构来看，汽车用催化剂的需求占比为40%、珠宝首饰的需求占比为25%、工业用途占比20%（汽车 行业除外）、投资需求占比9%。2025年，由于黄金价格大幅攀升，铂金在投资需求和首饰需求方面对黄金的替代效 应极为显著，因此铂金需求中的珠宝首饰需求和投资需求占比将大幅提升。受中国及北美市场需求复苏的驱动，铂 金条、币投资预计增长30%，达到8吨，其中，中国500克及以上铂金条需求预计持续上扬，有望达到6吨。 世界铂金投资协会发布的数据显示，受关税不确定性及区域溢价扩大的驱动，大量铂金流入美国市场，推动交易所 ...

公司于 2025 年 4 月 28 日召开第十一届董事会第十五次会议，审议并通过了 《关于 2025 年度预计为控股子公司提供担保额度的议案》。为确保公司在美国、 香港子公司经营发展中的资金需求，上海老凤祥为下属三级子公司老凤祥美国公 司提供担保，公司为老凤祥珠宝（香港）有限公司的资金借款事项提供不具备担 保性质和效力的安慰函。公司于 2025 年 6 月 26 日召开了 2024 年年度股东大会， 股东大会审议通过了上述议案。 具体内容详见公司于 2025 年 4 月 29 日、2025 年 6 月 27 日在上海证券交易 所网站及指定媒体披露的公告（公告编号：临 2025-010、临 2025-016、临 2025-029）。 证券代码：600612 证券简称：老凤祥 公告编号：2025-030 老凤祥股份有限公司 关于为子公司提供担保的进展公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ? 担保对象及基本情况 老凤祥珠宝美国有限公司（Lao Feng 被担保人名称 Xiang Jewelry USA ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold and jewelry market is undergoing significant changes due to persistently high gold prices, leading to shifts in consumer behavior and market dynamics [4][6][12]. Group 1: Market Trends - The market is witnessing a trend towards lower-priced products, with a notable decline in the sales of heavier gold items, while lighter gold bars (10g to 30g) are gaining popularity among consumers [6][11]. - Retailers are adjusting their product offerings, emphasizing lighter and higher-value items, such as silver, pearls, jade, and platinum, which were previously considered secondary products [6][10]. - The introduction of innovative products, like the collaboration between brands and local cultural elements, reflects the industry's shift towards lightweight and high-value offerings [6][10]. Group 2: Channel Restructuring - The industry is experiencing a phenomenon of store closures, particularly in rural areas, as consumer spending power diminishes in smaller towns [7][10]. - The emergence of small-scale "goldsmith" shops caters to consumers seeking unique, handcrafted items, indicating a deeper market segmentation [10][11]. - The market is evolving with a demand for low-cost models, necessitating regulatory oversight to ensure compliance and product quality [10][11]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Trust - High gold prices have altered consumer perceptions, leading to a cautious approach towards purchasing, with a decline in demand for larger gold items [11][12]. - The introduction of gold-plated silver products has raised concerns about industry integrity, prompting discussions on ensuring accurate metal content and maintaining consumer trust [11][12]. - There is a generational divide in purchasing preferences, with younger consumers more open to paying for design and craftsmanship, while older consumers prioritize the intrinsic value of gold [11][12]. Group 4: Brand Strategies - The industry is undergoing structural adjustments, with some brands focusing on high-end offerings while others seek differentiation and refined operations [12][14]. - Brands are encouraged to adopt rational store opening strategies, emphasizing quality over quantity in their market presence [14]. - The market's evolution necessitates brands to embrace innovation, uphold integrity, and accurately position their value to thrive in a challenging environment [14].

Core Insights - The concept of "emotional value" is becoming a significant investment theme in the Hong Kong stock market, driven by products like blind boxes, gold jewelry, and Chinese tea drinks [1] - The rise of "new conspicuous consumption" reflects a shift in consumer behavior towards identity expression and social recognition [1][3] - Labubu's success story illustrates how celebrity endorsements and high-fashion events can elevate a brand from niche to mainstream, emphasizing the importance of social status in consumer choices [2][3] Group 1: Emotional Value and Consumption Trends - Emotional value encompasses various aspects such as self-satisfaction, social recognition, and therapeutic consumption, with a focus on new forms of conspicuous consumption [1] - The historical context of conspicuous consumption shows its evolution from overt displays of wealth to more subtle forms of identity expression [1][11] - Labubu's transformation into a symbol of status is linked to its presence at Milan Fashion Week and endorsements from global celebrities, which sparked a buying frenzy among consumers [2][3] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Brand Positioning - Labubu's marketing strategies, including social media campaigns and collaborations, have significantly contributed to its brand recognition and sales growth [2][6] - The luxury market in China is evolving, with brands like Laopoo Gold leveraging cultural significance and craftsmanship to appeal to consumers seeking identity expression through luxury goods [7][11] - The rapid growth of Labubu's overseas market revenue, particularly in the Americas and Europe, indicates a strong demand for emotional and identity-driven products [6] Group 3: Cultural and Economic Context - China's economic development has led to a growing middle class with increasing disposable income, creating a fertile ground for luxury and identity-driven consumption [9][10] - The concept of "face economy" in the Middle East highlights a similar trend where consumers seek to express their status through virtual goods and social media engagement [12][16] - The interplay between cultural heritage and modern luxury consumption is evident in the success of brands that can effectively communicate their identity and value propositions [11][17]