宏观研究 每周经济观察： （一）景气向上 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】第 52 期 沥青开工率明显改善 1、华创宏观 WEI 指数震荡回升。截至 12 月 21 日，该指数为 5.22%，环比前 一周上行 0.06 个点。 2、地产销售：商品房住宅成交面积同比降幅继续收窄。我们统计的 67 个城 市，截至 12 月 26 日当周，商品房成交面积同比为-19%。12 月前 26 日累计同 比为-26%。11 月同比为-34%。 3、基建：石油沥青装置开工率改善。截至 12 月 24 当周，开工率为 31.3%， 较上周环比回升 3.7 个点，较去年同期高 5.4 个点。 4、价格：铜价、金价、油价均上涨。COMEX 黄金收于 4546.2 美金/盎司，上 涨 4.6%；LME 三个月铜价收于 12218 美元/吨，上涨 4.1%；美油收于 56.7 美 元/桶，上涨 1.1%，布油收于 60.6 美元/桶，上涨 1.4% （二）景气向下 1、耐用品消费：乘用车零售低位运行。12 月第三周，乘用车零售同比增速- 11%，前值-17%。12 月前三周累计同比-18.8%。11 月全月同比为-8.1%。 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is undergoing significant reforms in its delisting system, with keywords for 2025 including "fraud delisting," "occupancy delisting," "voluntary delisting," and "investor protection" [1] - The average position of domestic stock private equity funds remains high at 83.16%, indicating strong confidence among leading private equity investors in the market outlook [1] - The new energy theme funds have shown a remarkable recovery, with an average net value increase of 41.33% over the past year, highlighting structural opportunities in sectors like energy storage and wind power [3] Group 2 - The commercial aerospace sector has seen a surge, with multiple satellite-themed ETFs rising over 10%, while the lithium battery sector remains strong [2] - The total market size of ETFs has surpassed 6 trillion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of over 60% compared to the end of 2024, with substantial net inflows of 915 billion yuan [2] - The lithium battery separator industry is experiencing a wave of mergers and acquisitions, indicating a trend towards industry consolidation and rising product prices due to increased demand [5] Group 3 - The A+H dual listing model is witnessing explosive growth, with 19 A-share companies successfully listing in Hong Kong in 2025, a 533% increase from 2024 [8] - The film market has achieved a record high in box office revenue for the 2025 holiday season, surpassing 5 billion yuan, driven by a diverse range of film releases [7] - Recent adjustments to real estate policies in Beijing aim to stabilize the market, leading to increased activity in both new and second-hand housing markets [7]

中金研究 中国商品贸易顺差继续上升，但服务贸易持续逆差，截至今年9月，滚动12个月的经常账户与GDP之比低于3.5%，外部失衡不算非常显著。金融周期下 行推升贸易顺差，这是因为，社会资源配置往高效率的高端制造业领域倾斜，技术进步提速，叠加房地产调整导致非贸易品价格下降，降低贸易品的 中间投入成本，促进了出口。另一方面，私人部门去杠杆抑制了需求，从而使得进口放缓，而制造业升级也使得部分行业国产化程度上升，带动进口 下降。具体分行业情况见下。 点击小程序查看报告原文 出口上升、进口下降，推动商品贸易顺差上升。 2025年1-11月中国海关口径商品贸易顺差为10758亿美元，创历史新高，同比增速为21%。出口方面， 2025年1-11月金额为34147亿美元，同比上升1746亿美元，同比增速为5.4%；进口方面，2025年1-11月金额为23388亿美元，同比下降130亿美元，同比增 速为-0.6%。两者共同作用下，推动商品贸易顺差上升。而从截至2025年9月的滚动12个月的贸易顺差、出口和进口占GDP比重来看，2025年9月为6.0%， 同比上升1.3个百分点，其中出口上升贡献0.6个百分点，进口下降贡献0.7个 ...

专题：2026年度投资策略|顶级基金公司、基金经理展望马年投资机会 过去十年，每年年底我都会发布第二年的十大预言。去年年底发布的2025年十大预言，现在回头来看， 基本上都得到了完美验证，包括美联储延续降息周期、美元指数回落，以及A股和港股走出牛市走势。 人民币也如我预期一样出现升值，现在已经突破7.05，而去年年底是7.4。 那么2026年会怎么走？今天我正式给大家发布2026年十大预言。如果说2025年十大预言和当时市场普遍 看法基本上是反着来的，那么2026年十大预言则是2025年的延续，因为2026年很多宏观条件没有太大变 化，市场表现也是对2025年开启的这轮慢牛、长牛行情的延续。 第一条，美联储延续降息周期，美元指数继续回落，美股逐步见顶回落。这是关于美国货币政策以及美 元、美股的判断。在美国经济增速放缓、通胀已经降下来的情况下，美联储将会继续降息，预计2026年 会降息两次，每次仍是25个基点，这样美国联邦基金利率将降到3%–3.25%。随着美联储降息以及美国 经济增速放缓，美元指数会继续回落。美股经过十几年上涨，估值已处于历史高位，而这轮美股科技牛 行情也逐步呈现出明显泡沫化，关于AI泡沫的讨 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to continue its strong performance as it approaches the end of 2025, with institutions suggesting a focus on structural opportunities in a fluctuating market [1][6] - The issuance of FOF products has surged to 838.28 billion units this year, marking a historical high, with increased participation from insurance institutions and banks [3][21] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is actively monitoring the application of artificial intelligence in the capital market, aiming to enhance its application level and drive high-quality development [5][23] Group 2 - The industrial sector has shown a cumulative profit growth of 0.1% year-on-year for the first 11 months, with high-tech manufacturing leading the growth [7][25] - The recent regulatory changes in the banking sector aim to enhance supervision and address the complexities in the banking environment, with a focus on improving regulatory effectiveness [2][19] - The recent surge in the number of A-share companies successfully listing in Hong Kong reflects a growing trend, with 19 companies raising over 50% of the total new capital in the Hong Kong market this year [14][33]

转自：贵州日报 贵州医科大学附属医院院长、中山大学附属第一医院贵州医院院长左石，中山大学附属第一医院贵州医 院党委书记、执行院长孙祥宙，新区领导王嶒、李昂参加。 在中山大学附属第一医院贵州医院（贵州医科大学附属医院贵安院区），胡忠雄先后走访医院病房、住 院部等区域，与患者、医务工作者面对面交流。他强调，要加强联动，统筹好建设进度、评审进程，抓 好重点学科专科建设，强化对医院发展的服务保障，更好满足群众就医需求。在新区公共交通有限公 司，胡忠雄认真听取工作汇报，实地察看企业运营情况，叮嘱相关负责人要把群众安全便捷出行放在首 位，因地制宜优化路线，面向旅游业发展需求、定制公交需求、驾培需求挖掘发展潜力，为市民游客提 供更加优质的出行服务。在岐山安置房二期项目，胡忠雄看项目建设、听群众安置情况汇报，关切询问 周边配套、物业管理等方面情况。他强调，要高质量推进项目建设，抓好公共服务配套，不断提升群众 生活品质。在湖南师范大学附属贵安学校，胡忠雄先后走进学生教室、宿舍、实验室，详细了解学校招 生、办学等方面情况。他强调，要提升办学质量，加强教师队伍建设，周密细致做好校园安全各项工 作，推动学校软件、硬件实现同步提升，助 ...

我终于把北京的房子卖了。 2025、12、28日 题目：我终于把北京的房子卖了！ 作者：佚名 摘录：我终于明白，真正的安全感，不是来自于一套房子，或者一个高薪的职位。而是来自于你内心的笃定，来自于你拥有随时可以重新开始的勇气和能 力，来自于你身边那些真正爱你的人。 签约那天是个周三，北京难得的好天气，阳光明晃晃的，一点不留情面。中介小哥西装笔挺，满脸堆笑，递过来那支签字笔的时候，手稳得像焊在桌子上。 我握住笔，笔杆有点凉，心里却没什么波澜。不像电影里演的那样，没有BGM，没有慢镜头回放，也没有什么百感交集的泪水。 就那么签了。一笔一画，把那个我奋斗了差不多十年才换来的、承载了无数个加班夜晚和周末泡面的"家"，交到了另一个人手里。 签完字，买家夫妻俩明显松了口气，开始兴高采烈讨论装修的事。女主人说要把朝南的次卧改成儿童房，男主人说明年开春就把露台上的花架搭起来。 我坐在旁边，听着他们规划一个不属于我的未来，突然感觉自己像个局外人。一个刚刚从一场大梦里被叫醒，还有点搞不清状况的局外人。 走出中介门店，下午四点的阳光斜斜打在脸上，有点刺眼。我掏出手机，习惯性想点开地铁线路图，规划回家的路线。指尖悬在屏幕上空，我愣住 ...

Group 1 - The market continues to recover, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3963 points [3] - Recent afternoon surges indicate that buying funds are waiting for short sellers to drive prices down before accumulating shares [4] - The recent appreciation of the RMB beyond 7 signifies a stronger willingness to exchange currency compared to previous years, which may support the economy [7] Group 2 - The RMB's future direction is anticipated to stabilize around 6.9, as rapid appreciation could negatively impact exports and technological innovation [8][10] - The strong willingness to exchange currency this year is mitigated by many companies having hedged their positions, limiting potential losses [10][12] - The monthly customer option buying volume in the banking sector has reached 30 billion USD, doubling from last year [11] Group 3 - Signals to boost domestic demand are becoming more pronounced, with both spot and forward exchange rates showing significant appreciation [15][16] - The current low volatility environment during the RMB's appreciation suggests that large reversals are unlikely, similar to slow bull markets in equities [25][28] - The revaluation period for Chinese assets is expected to open officially [30] Group 4 - The relaxation of purchase restrictions in Beijing is seen as beneficial for the real estate sector, but not necessarily for housing prices [31] - The true intention behind the government's focus on "investing in people" can be understood by observing rental prices, which are leading indicators for housing stability [35][36] - The continuous decline in the REITs index indicates significant rental pressure [37] Group 5 - The A500 ETF has seen increased trading volume, with the leading A500 ETF's transaction volume reaching 53.3 billion [40] - The current market volatility has decreased, suggesting that many short positions in derivatives may convert to long positions in the future [40] - The investment landscape is shifting towards sectors like military and robotics, with insurance stocks reaching new highs and showing a 33% increase this year [40]

行 业 研 究 2025 年 12 月 28 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 ——行业周报 qidong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522010002 《北京再次放宽限购，激活年末市场 热度—行业点评报告》-2025.12.24 《新房二手房成交面积环比增长，住 建部强调促进地产市场供需平衡—行 业周报》-2025.12.21 《高基数下销售疲软，年末市场延续 以 价 换 量 趋 势 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.12.15 新房二手房成交面积环比增长，北京进一步优化调整 住房限购政策 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | duzhiyuan@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | 证书编号：S07901240 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in the year-on-year net signed area for second-hand homes, with a decrease of 30% compared to the previous year, which is an expansion of 15 percentage points from November [4]. - In contrast, the year-on-year decline in the net signed area for new homes has narrowed to 26%, improving by 9 percentage points from November [4]. - The central economic work conference has shifted its focus from "greater efforts to stabilize the real estate market" to "focusing on stabilizing the real estate market," suggesting potential support for urban renewal and housing fund reforms [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the difference between net rental yields and mortgage rates as a key observation for total demand in both new and second-hand housing markets [6]. Summary by Sections New Home Market - The year-on-year decline in new home net signed area has narrowed, with the average area signed in sample cities showing improvement compared to the past four years [10][11]. - The report indicates that the new home market is experiencing a more favorable supply-demand environment compared to the second-hand market [6]. Second-Hand Home Market - The year-on-year decline in second-hand home net signed area has expanded, with the average area signed in sample cities remaining at a relatively high level compared to the last five years [15][18]. - The report notes that the average viewing numbers for second-hand homes in 12 sample cities have decreased year-on-year, indicating a potential slowdown in market activity [43]. Land Acquisition - The cumulative land transaction area from January to November has seen a year-on-year decline of 14%, with the average transaction price showing a narrower increase of 7% [22]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the number of unsold land parcels, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [33]. Market Liquidity - The report assesses liquidity indicators, noting a tightening in macro-level liquidity in December, which may impact market conditions [47]. - The proportion of listings with price increases has decreased slightly, indicating a cautious market sentiment [48]. Inventory and Unsold Properties - The report indicates an increase in the unsold inventory of new homes, with the de-stocking cycle lengthening compared to October [33]. - The report also highlights that the de-stocking cycles for first and second-tier cities have increased, suggesting a potential slowdown in sales [33].