期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 | 股指期货：节前保持窄幅波动 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：节前交投热度有所下降 4 | 银河期货研究所 2026 年 2 月 11 日 0 / 46 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 蛋白粕：月度供需报告利多有限 市场震荡运行 5 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价下跌 预计国内价格略强 5 | | 油脂板块：油脂维持宽幅震荡 6 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：产区现货稳定，盘面高位震荡 7 | | 生猪：出栏压力增加 现货继续下行 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：节前备货进入尾声 蛋价有所下跌 10 | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面变化不大 棉价有所支撑 12 | | 钢材：需求延续下滑，钢价震荡运行 13 | | --- | | 双焦：煤矿陆续放假，现货成交趋于冷清 13 | | 铁矿：基本面持续弱化，矿价偏弱运行 14 | | 铁合金：长假临近，多单逢高止盈 15 | | 金银：市场静待非农数据 金银窄幅波动 16 | | --- | | 铂钯：非农数据公布前 贵金属市场波动收窄 17 | ...

金十数据2月11日讯，据华尔街日报报道，特朗普政府官员已讨论是否扣押更多运输伊朗石油的油轮，以进一步向德黑 兰施压。但由于担忧伊朗几乎必然的报复行动以及对全球石油市场的影响，美国官员表示目前尚未采取行动。如果美国 采取行动阻止其他受制裁船只在伊朗装载石油，将挤压德黑兰的主要收入来源。此举将扩大白宫去年12月在加勒比海地 区实施的激进战略。然而，一些官员表示，该方案作为白宫迫使德黑兰达成限制核计划协议的数个选项之一，面临重重 障碍，扣押行为甚至被视为一种战争行为。针对美国升级的打击行动，伊朗很可能通过扣押该地区美国盟友的油轮，甚 至在霍尔木兹海峡布设水雷作为回应。任何一种举动都可能导致油价大幅攀升，使白宫面临政治风暴的风险。 ·伊朗官员：若美伊核问题谈判成功 对话或将拓展至其他领域 金十数据2月11日讯，当地时间10日，伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书、最高领袖顾问拉里贾尼表示，前一阶段的美伊谈 判进程逐步取得了进展。他指出，只要谈判具备现实可行性，伊朗愿意继续参与相关谈判。拉里贾尼称，伊朗在首轮谈 判中的立场是积极的，并表示，下一阶段可能带来战略缓和的契机，或者至少能实现政治立场的重新调整，而这取决于 对话的最终结 ...

美股道指续创新高，人工智能忧虑波及券商股。港股三大指数继续高开，恒指涨0.23%，国指涨 0.17%，恒生科技指数涨0.21%。权重科技股多数继续反弹，AI应用概念股继续上涨，龙头股智谱高开 近5%有望再创历史新高，阜博集团、商汤等纷纷上涨，生物医药股亦集体活跃，再鼎医药、药明生物 涨超3%。另外，半导体股、餐饮股、石油股部分走低，权重股中芯国际跌超2%。(格隆汇) ...

会议审议了有关中立区陆上和海上石油作业的报告，包括战略计划、当前和未来项目、实施过程中 可能面临的挑战、石油作业中先进技术的使用、环境和安全举措、发展计划以及国家劳动力培训。 （原标题：沙特与科威特讨论中立区的项目和统一税收框架） 《中东报》1月26日报道，沙特阿拉伯和科威特在沙特阿拉伯哈夫吉举行沙特-科威特常设联合委员 会，讨论重大项目以及在中立区（Divided Zone）建立统一的税务程序机制。 此次会议由科威特石油部次大臣谢赫·尼梅尔·法赫德·马利克·萨巴赫和沙特阿拉伯能源部助理大臣穆 罕默德·易卜拉欣共同主持。 同时，会议还审查了雪佛龙沙特阿拉伯公司从祖尔地区已完成的设施撤离的程序。科威特政府已于 1月20日正式接管了这些设施。 会议讨论了在努瓦伊塞布和哈夫吉边境口岸为联合行动人员分配专用路线，包括开通一条新通道和提供 技术基础设施。 ...

Group 1: Non-Oil Exports and Trade Performance - Saudi Arabia's non-oil exports, including re-exports, increased by 20.7% year-on-year in November 2025, while non-oil exports excluding re-exports grew by 4.7% [1] - The total value of re-exported goods surged by 53.1%, with machinery, electrical equipment, and parts seeing an impressive increase of 81.9%, accounting for 51.5% of total re-exports [1] - The ratio of non-oil exports, including re-exports, to imports rose to 42.2% in November 2025, up from 34.9% in November 2024 [1] Group 2: Export and Import Composition - In November 2025, Saudi Arabia's total goods exports increased by 10.0%, with oil exports rising by 5.4%, leading to a decrease in the oil export share of total exports from 70.1% to 67.2% year-on-year [1] - The main non-oil export products included machinery and electrical equipment, which constituted 24.2% of non-oil exports and grew by 81.5%, followed by chemical products at 20.3%, with a modest growth of 0.5% [1] - On the import side, machinery and electrical equipment accounted for 30.7% of total imports, increasing by 8.6%, while transport equipment made up 14.4% of imports, growing by 2.2% [1] Group 3: Trade Partners - China emerged as the largest export destination for Saudi Arabia, representing 13.5% of total exports in November 2025, followed by the UAE at 11.7% and Japan at 9.9% [2] - In terms of imports, China was the leading source of goods for Saudi Arabia, making up 26.7% of total imports, with the USA and UAE following at 10.2% and 6.2%, respectively [2] - The top ten export destinations accounted for 71.4% of Saudi Arabia's total exports, while the top ten import sources represented 68.6% of total imports [2]

出品 | 中国能源报（c n e n e rg y） 来源：央视新闻客户端 End 欢迎分享给你的朋友！ 墨西哥发生输油管爆炸事故，造成至少3死6伤。 当地时间2月10日，墨西哥东南部瓦哈卡州的埃尔巴里奥德拉索雷达市发生一起输油管爆 炸事故，目前已经造成至少3人死亡和6人受伤，伤者已经被送医治疗。 根据瓦哈卡州民防部的信息，发生爆炸的输油管属于墨西哥国家石油公司。初步调查显 示，事发时正在进行输油管的内部管道清洁和维护作业。相关的调查工作已经展开。爆炸 事故导致附近的泵站发生火灾，当地消防部门已赶赴现场，目前情况已经得到控制。 责编丨李慧颖 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical tensions continue to support oil prices, and the chemical industry remains in a sideways consolidation. It is advisable to hold light positions during the holiday. - The pre - Spring Festival oscillation pattern in the chemical industry is difficult to change in the short term. Higher - inventory varieties face greater pressure, and inventory pressure may rise again during the Spring Festival. - Coal prices are stabilizing, and crude oil and chemical prices will continue to oscillate and consolidate. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premiums fluctuate, and risks remain high around the holiday. - **Main Logic**: After the US cold wave, the recovery of crude oil production has led to renewed inventory pressure. The current fundamentals of the crude oil market are not optimistic, with high inventory levels and pressured refinery margins. The market is trading on the theme of "weak reality, strong expectation", with geopolitical factors influencing supply expectations. Uncertainties in the US - Iran situation and potential impacts on Russian crude exports still support oil prices. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. [7] Asphalt - **View**: Asphalt futures prices oscillate at high levels. - **Main Logic**: The US - Iran situation is complex, and the partial lifting of US sanctions on Venezuela will increase the long - term supply of asphalt raw materials. High profits may prompt refiners to switch to alternative raw materials. Current asphalt inventory is accumulating, and the market is in a situation of both weak supply and demand. The current asphalt price is over - valued compared to other products. - **Outlook**: Oscillation, with the long - term valuation expected to decline. [8] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Fuel oil futures prices operate at high levels. - **Main Logic**: The US - Iran situation is still under negotiation, and the increase in Venezuelan oil production is expected to put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. Tensions in the Iran region have mixed effects on the short - term market. In the long run, the substitution of fuel oil power generation by natural gas and photovoltaic will be a negative factor. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. Pay attention to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East in the short term. [9] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the oscillation of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by crude oil and natural gas prices. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. However, its current valuation is low. The export tax - rebate policy for low - sulfur fuel oil and the pressure of "reducing oil and increasing chemicals" will lead to an increase in supply and a decline in demand. - **Outlook**: Oscillation, following the movement of crude oil. [10] PX - **View**: The cost side still provides support, and PTA plant maintenance has been implemented. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices oscillate and consolidate, and PX oscillates slightly stronger. Although PTA plant maintenance provides some support, weak demand limits the increase in PX prices. The holiday atmosphere in the downstream market is strong, and spot trading volume is gradually decreasing. - **Outlook**: In the short term, PX prices will oscillate under the guidance of sentiment. Pay attention to the support level of around 7100 yuan/ton for the PX05 contract, and PXN is expected to be in the range of [280, 300] US dollars/ton. [12] PTA - **View**: PTA plant maintenance has been implemented, alleviating the seasonal inventory accumulation pressure. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost still provides short - term support, and the news of PTA plant maintenance boosts the futures price. However, polyester production has declined to a low level, and the spot market is quiet during the holiday. The PTA processing fee is expected to be significantly supported in the short term. - **Outlook**: PTA is expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short term. Pay attention to the strengthening support of the TA05 - 09 spread, and consider positive - spread positions. The support level of around 5100 yuan/ton for the TA05 contract is relatively strong. [13] Pure Benzene - **View**: The price oscillates, mainly affected by crude oil prices and capital sentiment. - **Main Logic**: The US - Iran situation is unclear, leading to repeated geopolitical premiums. The correction of non - ferrous metals and precious metals has dragged down the commodity market sentiment. In the medium term, the fundamentals of pure benzene may be in a transition period, with less inventory accumulation in Q1 compared to Q4, but there are significant differences in market expectations for Q2. In the short term, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in East China ports, and some profit - taking may cause price fluctuations. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. Although the fundamentals in Q1 have improved compared to Q4, inventory pressure remains high. [15] Styrene - **View**: Overseas and domestic plant restarts have led to a marginal loosening of supply and demand. - **Main Logic**: The upward momentum of styrene has weakened. Crude oil prices are at the upper end of the range, and geopolitical premiums have been fully priced in. The supply and demand of styrene have become more relaxed due to plant restarts, and downstream acceptance is weak. Although there are some export orders, the overseas supply is expected to increase. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The height of seasonal inventory accumulation in February has been reduced, but the improvement in the overseas supply - demand situation has weakened the support. [18] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **View**: The import volume in the second quarter has been revised downwards, and there is a weak expectation of supply - demand repair. The price has limited downside. - **Main Logic**: The price is in a narrow - range consolidation at a low level. There is still seasonal inventory accumulation in January - February, but the medium - term structure is expected to improve. Due to the planned maintenance and postponed restarts of overseas plants in March - April, the import volume in the second quarter is expected to decline, providing some support for the price. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the price will be in the range of [3700, 4050] yuan/ton. Pay attention to the operation in the range of [- 120, - 85] yuan/ton for the EG05 - 09 spread. [20] Short - Fiber - **View**: Both supply and demand decline, and trading is light. - **Main Logic**: The prices of upstream polyester raw materials oscillate and rise, providing some cost support. However, the operating rate of polyester short - fiber has dropped significantly to a low level compared to the same period in previous years, and downstream demand has entered the holiday mode, resulting in less trading. - **Outlook**: The price of short - fiber will follow the movement of upstream products, and the support for the processing fee will be strengthened. [24] Polyester Bottle Chips - **View**: Volatility narrows, and the trading atmosphere weakens. - **Main Logic**: The prices of upstream polyester raw materials rise slightly, and polyester bottle chips follow the increase. The price has been in a narrow - range consolidation recently, with small fluctuations and a slightly weaker trading atmosphere. - **Outlook**: The absolute price will follow the movement of raw materials, and the support for the processing fee will be strengthened. Consider the position of going long PR and short TA. [26] Methanol - **View**: Coastal trading has paused before the holiday, and inventory reduction in the inland is coming to an end. Methanol oscillates and consolidates. - **Main Logic**: The price of methanol oscillates and consolidates. The inland market shows mixed trends, and the pre - holiday inventory reduction by upstream and inventory replenishment by downstream are approaching the end. The market will gradually enter a state of "price but no trading" during the holiday. The inventory of methanol production enterprises and ports has decreased. The US - Iran negotiation still has uncertainties. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The situation in Iran remains uncertain, and the coastal market has paused trading before the holiday. The inland market is in the final stage of inventory reduction and replenishment, with limited new orders but firm prices. [28] Urea - **View**: Pre - holiday orders are coming to an end, and urea oscillates and consolidates. - **Main Logic**: The supply of urea is at a high level, and industrial demand is gradually weakening as the Spring Festival approaches. Agricultural demand is mainly for flexible replenishment. The inventory of urea production enterprises has decreased. Most enterprises have completed pre - holiday order pre - sales, and the spot price is firm, with only small fluctuations. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The supply of urea is stable. Pay attention to the order - receiving progress of enterprises. The market will gradually enter a state of "price but no trading" during the holiday, and the price is expected to remain firm until after the holiday, waiting for the recovery of demand. [30] LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: Both long and short positions are cautious before the long holiday, and plastic may oscillate after a decline. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices oscillate, and the fundamentals of the crude oil market are not optimistic. The uncertainty of the US - Iran situation still supports oil prices. The commodity market sentiment is cautious before the holiday, and there is an indirect impact on plastic. The mid - stream inventory pressure of plastic is not large, and downstream enterprises have gradually stopped production for the holiday. There is still an expectation of macro - consumption policy support. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation. [33] PP - **View**: Both long and short positions are cautious before the holiday, and PP oscillates after a decline. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices oscillate, and the fundamentals of the crude oil market are not optimistic. The US - Iran situation supports oil prices. The commodity market sentiment has weakened, which also suppresses PP. The PDH profit of PP refineries is still under pressure, providing some support for the price. The downstream of PP is in the off - season, and downstream enterprises have gradually stopped production before the holiday. There is an expectation of macro - consumption policy support. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation. [34] PL - **View**: Supported by the spot market, PL oscillates. - **Main Logic**: PDH maintenance still provides some support. The overall supply increase is limited, and enterprise inventory is controllable. Propylene supply has no pressure, and enterprises aim to stabilize the market. Downstream demand is weak, and short - term powder profit fluctuates within a narrow range. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation. [35] PVC - **View**: Low valuation and weak expectation, PVC oscillates. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical factors may cause fluctuations and affect the commodity market sentiment. Domestic policies such as mercury - free technology and carbon - neutrality will help eliminate backward production capacity, but the implementation period may be long. The support of "export rush" for demand may weaken, and inventory reduction has slowed down. The production of PVC may remain high around the Spring Festival, downstream operating rate is high but trending downward, and the willingness to replenish inventory is poor. The export price of Formosa Plastics has been raised, and the enthusiasm of foreign buyers needs to be observed. Coal price is expected to rise, supporting the price of calcium carbide, and the dynamic cost of PVC is stable. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. Market sentiment has weakened, and the support of export has decreased, but the low valuation of PVC makes the price oscillate. [36] Caustic Soda - **View**: The comprehensive profit is poor, and caustic soda weakly stabilizes. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical factors still affect the commodity market sentiment. Domestic policies will help eliminate backward production capacity, but the implementation period is long. The price of liquid chlorine has dropped, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali has weakened, increasing the risk of production reduction after the holiday. The marginal profit of alumina production is poor, and the implementation of production reduction may be slow. A large alumina plant in Shandong has a high receiving volume of caustic soda, and the vehicle - pressing phenomenon has improved. The commissioning of alumina plants in Guangxi is advancing, providing marginal support for caustic soda demand. Non - aluminum production has weakened, and low prices have boosted the willingness of middle - and downstream enterprises to replenish inventory. The upstream production has changed little, and the production of caustic soda remains at a high level. The price of liquid chlorine has declined, and the dynamic cost of caustic soda in Shandong is high. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The chlor - alkali profit is poor, but the futures price has a high premium. It is expected to oscillate before the holiday. [37] 2. Variety Data Monitoring Energy Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc., including the latest values and changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.68 with a change of 0.06, and Dubai's M1 - M2 spread is 0.32 with a change of - 0.13. [39] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis and warehouse receipts of different varieties, including asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. For instance, the basis of asphalt is - 133 with a change of - 9, and the number of warehouse receipts is 43290 tons. [40] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents the inter - variety spreads, such as the spreads between PP and MA, TA and EG, etc. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 286 with a change of 37. [41] Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report lists the basis and spread monitoring for multiple varieties including methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific detailed data summaries for each sub - item are not fully presented in the given text. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity 20 index is 2722.24 with a +0.43% change, the industrial products index is 2281.60 with a +0.12% change, and the comprehensive index is 2383.17 with a +0.35% change. - **Energy Index**: On February 10, 2026, the energy index was 1152.81, with a daily increase of +0.92%, a 5 - day increase of +1.28%, a 1 - month increase of +3.02%, and a year - to - date increase of +6.10%. [281][283]

格隆汇2月11日｜美国能源信息署（EIA）周二表示，针对委内瑞拉相关交易的美国许可范围扩大，预 计将使这一南美国家的原油产量在2026年年中恢复至去年12月美国实施海上封锁之前的水平。在美国于 1月初抓捕委总统马杜罗后，华盛顿为施压而实施了严格的海上封锁，迫使委内瑞拉国家石油公司 （PDVSA）大幅削减产量。该封锁切断了委内瑞拉出口原油的能力，导致数百万桶原油在陆上储罐和 油轮中积压。封锁前，委内瑞拉原油日产量约为110万至120万桶。在美国政府上月授权大宗商品贸易商 维多和托克加入石油巨头雪佛龙出口委内瑞拉原油、从而帮助消化库存积压之后，PDVSA已撤回大部 分减产措施，将总产量提高至接近每日100万桶。美国政府还在上月底解除了一部分针对委内瑞拉石油 行业的制裁，以便美国公司更容易销售该国原油。 ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2026 年 2 月 11 日 能源化工研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1： | | 行情回顾(美元/桶) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SC：元/桶 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌幅% | 成交量（万手） | | WTI | 主力 | 63.10 | 63.50 | 64.58 | 62.2 | 0.33 | 40.16 | | Brent | 主力 | 67.20 | 66.56 | 68.83 | 66.56 | 0.81 | 46.86 | | SC | 主力（元/桶） | 464.8 | 464.2 | 474.7 | 457.2 | -0.32 | 11.96 | 数据来源：wind,建信期货研究发展部 伊朗和美国举行了首轮谈判，会后特朗普表示会谈非常成功，且将在本周再 次与伊朗举行谈判。但在谈判同日，美国再度公布了对伊朗的新一轮制裁，美国 继续对伊朗施压以达成其诉求。美伊双方仍存在一定分歧，伊朗表示不接受"零 浓缩"， ...

当地时间2月10日（周二），美国股市三大股指收盘涨跌不一, 其中道琼斯工业指数收涨，收盘和盘中均再创历 史新高。 美股存储芯片概念股成为市场焦点之一，当天多只存储芯片概念股大跌，闪迪跌超7%。 当地时间2月10日（周二），美国股市三大股指收盘涨跌不一，其中道琼斯工业指数涨0.1%，报50188.14点，收 盘和盘中均创历史新高；标准普尔500指数跌0.33%，报6941.81点，该指数尾盘出现一波跳水；纳斯达克指数跌 0.59%，报23102.47点。 | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 月 更多 F9 不复权 超级量加 面线 工具 谷 》 | | | | | | 道琼斯工业平均 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DJI.GI(删除断工业平均) 2025/10/03 收 46758.28 幅 0.51%(238.56) 开 46583.95 商 47049.64 低 46566.87 换 0.00% 振 | ಸಿಲ | | 50188.14 +52.27 +0.10% | | | | DJI | | MAS ...