Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical news is volatile, causing significant price fluctuations in oil, but the overall trend is upward. Attention should be paid to the rhythm [1][2]. - High - and low - sulfur fuel oils are supported by the cost of crude oil and a tightening supply, and are expected to remain at high levels. However, the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends should be noted [2]. - With the increase in domestic temperature, the demand for asphalt is gradually recovering. It is expected that asphalt prices will be strong, but it is necessary to be wary of the short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends [2][3]. - The polyester industry chain fluctuates with the cost side. The market is waiting for further developments in the situation. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and equipment changes [3]. - Natural rubber and butadiene rubber show different trends. The price of natural rubber is supported by alternative procurement, and the inventory is gradually increasing. Butadiene rubber fluctuates strongly under geopolitical influence [3][5]. - The inventory of methanol is starting to decline, but the supply recovery of Iranian equipment may suppress price increases. The Iranian situation is unclear, which may cause large - scale fluctuations in the market [5]. - The supply of polyolefins is expected to remain low, and the demand is gradually being released. However, the short - term geopolitical risk has compressed the profit space of downstream products, and subsequent demand growth may be hindered [5][6]. - PVC exports will supplement domestic demand. The overall short - selling pressure remains strong, and attention should be paid to the fulfillment of export orders and the Middle East situation [6]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI May contract closed down $1.50 to $101.38 per barrel, a 1.46% decline; Brent May contract closed up $5.57 to $118.35 per barrel, a 4.94% increase; SC2605 closed at 693.9 yuan per barrel, down 55.4 yuan per barrel, a 7.39% decline. Geopolitical news is volatile, and the overall price center is rising. The API data shows that for the week ending March 27, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 1.026 billion barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.21 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.04 million barrels [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2605 closed down 3.79% at 4446 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2605 closed down 4.11% at 5159 yuan per ton. Geopolitical conflicts have limited direct impact on low - sulfur fuel oil supply, but factors such as the increase in overseas diesel cracking and freight rates have affected the supply. It is expected to remain at a high level, but the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends should be noted [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2606 closed down 1.53% at 4512 yuan per ton. With the increase in temperature, demand is gradually recovering. It is expected that the overall demand will increase in April, and prices are expected to be strong, but the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends should be noted [2][3]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 6684 yuan per ton, down 1.24%; EG2605 closed at 5218 yuan per ton, down 2.63%. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. The industrial chain has different situations, and it fluctuates with the cost side. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and equipment changes [3]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contract RU2605 fell 195 yuan per ton to 16345 yuan per ton; NR fell 240 yuan per ton to 13605 yuan per ton; BR fell 375 yuan per ton to 17350 yuan per ton. The production of natural rubber in Thailand in 2025 increased by 0.6% to 4.84 million tons. The overseas production area is in a low - yield period, and domestic production areas are gradually starting to harvest. The price is supported by alternative procurement, and the inventory is gradually increasing. Butadiene rubber fluctuates strongly [3][5]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 3365 yuan per ton. The MTO arrival volume is at a low level, and the inventory is starting to decline. The supply recovery of Iranian equipment may suppress price increases, and the Iranian situation is unclear [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 9000 - 9300 yuan per ton. The supply is expected to remain low, and the demand is gradually being released. However, the short - term geopolitical risk has compressed the profit space of downstream products, and subsequent demand growth may be hindered [5][6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, the prices in East, North, and South China markets decreased. PVC exports will supplement domestic demand, and the overall short - selling pressure remains strong. Attention should be paid to the fulfillment of export orders and the Middle East situation [6]. Market News - Iran's President Pezeshkiyan reiterated Tehran's willingness to end the war, but on certain conditions. Even if the conflict ends quickly, it will take weeks or months to restore the global energy transportation system [8]. - OPEC's crude oil production in March dropped to the lowest level since the peak of the COVID - 19 pandemic in June 2020. The API data shows that for the week ending March 27, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 1.026 billion barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.21 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.04 million barrels. The U.S. has lifted sanctions on Russian crude oil and promised to release strategic reserves, but these measures can only make up for the supply gap in a limited time [8]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report provides price trend charts of multiple main contracts, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, and others, covering the time range from 2022 to 2026 [10][13][16][19][22][24][26]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The report presents basis trend charts of multiple main contracts, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [27][31][33]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report shows spread trend charts of multiple inter - period contracts, including fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [36][38][42][44][46][48]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The report provides spread and ratio trend charts of multiple inter - variety contracts, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, B - W spreads of crude oil, high - and low - sulfur fuel oil spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [51][54][56][58]. - **Production Profits**: The report shows production profit and processing fee trend charts of multiple products, including LLDPE, PP, PTA, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol [60][61]. Team Member Introduction - **Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute**: Zhong Meiyan, with over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research, has won multiple awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises and providing risk management and investment strategies [65]. - **Director of Energy and Chemical Research**: Du Bingqin, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain, has won multiple awards and is often interviewed by the media [66]. - **Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst**: Di Yilin, who has won multiple awards, is mainly engaged in the research of natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, bottle chips and other futures varieties, and is good at data analysis [67]. - **Methanol/Propylene/Pure Benzene PE/PP/PVC Analyst**: Peng Haibo, with years of experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading, has passed the CFA Level 3 exam and combines financial theory with industrial operations [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall oil price shows a volatile and upward - trending rhythm. The energy market is facing an unprecedented supply shock, and geopolitical conflicts and concerns about economic downturn are dragging down asset prices [1][3]. - The short - term high and low - sulfur cracking spreads of fuel oil are expected to remain high. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is affected by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is tightened due to the closure of the east - west arbitrage window. The demand from domestic refineries and overseas ship refueling is expected to increase [3]. - The short - term asphalt price is expected to remain high. The supply is expected to decrease due to geopolitical conflicts and some refineries' focus on refined oil supply. The demand is expected to increase in April [3][4]. - The short - term polyester price will experience a high - level correction and oscillation. The cost is rising and the supply is shrinking, while the downstream demand is weak [4]. - The prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber may further diverge. The price of butadiene rubber will fluctuate with geopolitical situations and oil prices, and natural rubber will face the dual pressures of increased supply and decreased demand [6]. - The methanol futures and spot prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern. Attention should be paid to the intensity and scope of Iran's retaliation, changes in geopolitical conflicts, and the actual resumption progress of downstream MTO devices [6]. - The polyolefin market is in a de - stocking rhythm, but short - term geopolitical risks push up costs, squeezing downstream profit margins and potentially hindering demand growth [8]. - The PVC price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. The geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the ethylene - based method, while the profit of the calcium carbide - based method is strengthening rapidly. Supply is expected to remain high, and demand will gradually recover [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI April contract closed down 0.18 dollars to 96.14 dollars per barrel, a 0.19% decline; Brent May contract closed up 1.27 dollars to 108.65 dollars per barrel, a 1.18% increase; SC2605 closed at 757.1 yuan per barrel, down 46.3 yuan per barrel, a 5.76% decline. Geopolitical events such as Iran's warning and attacks on oil facilities in the Middle East have affected the market. The overall oil price shows a volatile and upward - trending rhythm [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2605 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 6.91% to 5011 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2605 rose 10.45% to 6170 yuan per ton. As of March 16, the land - based fuel oil inventories in Singapore and Fujairah decreased. The short - term high and low - sulfur cracking spreads are expected to remain high [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2604 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 4.32% to 4635 yuan per ton. This week, the shipment volume of domestic asphalt enterprises decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises increased slightly. The short - term price is expected to remain high [3][4]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 6834 yuan per ton, up 0.65%; EG2605 closed at 5220 yuan per ton, up 7.65%. The downstream demand is weak, and the short - term price will experience a high - level correction and oscillation [4]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contract RU2605 fell 310 yuan per ton to 16090 yuan per ton; the NR contract fell 180 yuan per ton to 12925 yuan per ton; the butadiene rubber contract BR rose 280 yuan per ton to 15540 yuan per ton. The prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber may further diverge [4][6]. - **Methanol**: Short - term methanol futures and spot prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern. Attention should be paid to multiple variables such as Iran's retaliation and downstream device resumption [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The upstream device maintenance plans increase, and the downstream factory operating load rises. The market is in a de - stocking rhythm, but short - term geopolitical risks push up costs, squeezing downstream profit margins [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The PVC market prices in East, North, and South China are adjusted upwards. The geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the ethylene - based method, while the profit of the calcium carbide - based method is strengthening. The price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring The document provides the basis price data of various energy - chemical products on March 19 and 18, 2026, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes and historical quantile information [9]. 3.3 Market News - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that the oil facilities of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar have become "legitimate targets for attack". The Habshan gas facility in the UAE has been temporarily shut down, and the Ahmadi Port refinery in Kuwait has been attacked [11]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) detailed the specific composition of the approximately 400 million - barrel strategic oil reserve release plan. The release will mainly consist of crude oil, and in Europe, it will mainly be in the form of refined oil. The specific allocation ratio between crude oil and refined oil may change [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The document provides line charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short fibers, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, rubber, synthetic rubber, European container shipping, p - xylene, and bottle chips [13][14][17][20][24]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The document provides line charts showing the basis of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [29][30][33][34][37]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The document provides line charts showing the spreads between different contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [40][42][46][48][50][52]. - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: The document provides line charts showing the spreads and ratios between different products, including crude oil's internal - external spread, B - W spread, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [55][58][59][62]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The document provides line charts showing the production profits of various products, including LLDPE, PP, PTA processing fees, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow [63][64][66]. 3.5 Team Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of experience in the futures derivatives market, has won multiple awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises and formulating risk management and investment strategies [69]. - **Du Bingqin**: Director of the Energy and Chemical Research Department of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with in - depth research on the energy industry, has won multiple awards and is often interviewed by the media [70]. - **Di Yilin**: Rubber and polyester analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won multiple awards and is good at data analysis and has strong logical thinking [71]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst of methanol, propylene, pure benzene, polyolefins, and PVC at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the energy - chemical spot - futures trading and financial theory - industry operation combination [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil market is in a state of high volatility due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with the situation in the Strait of Hormuz being a key factor. The release of strategic oil reserves aims to stabilize the market, but the supply - demand imbalance persists. Different energy and chemical products show different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals and geopolitical impacts [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - On Wednesday, oil prices rebounded. The WTI April contract rose $3.8 to $87.25 per barrel, a 4.55% increase; the Brent May contract rose $4.18 to $91.98 per barrel, a 4.76% increase; SC2604 closed at 695 yuan per barrel, up 45.8 yuan or 7.05%. Geopolitical tensions remain, and the Strait of Hormuz is still blocked. The IEA members have agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, and the US President will also use the US strategic oil reserve. OPEC + production in February averaged 42.72 million barrels per day, an increase of 445,000 barrels per day from January. Russian production in February decreased slightly by about 56,000 barrels per day to 9.184 million barrels per day. The oil market is in a state of medium - low intensity confrontation, with high volatility remaining the norm [1][3] 3.1.2 Fuel Oil - On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contracts on the SHFE declined. The high - sulfur fuel oil main contract FU2605 fell 4.87% to 4,318 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2605 fell 1.33% to 5,050 yuan per ton. The decline has narrowed. The dependence of major refineries on Middle Eastern crude is high, and the impact on refinery operations will gradually appear. For local refineries, there are sufficient stocks until May, but the raw material gap may widen after June. As of March 11, the operating rate of local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 68.63%, down 0.52 percentage points from last week [3] 3.1.3 Asphalt - On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2604 on the SHFE rose 1.07% to 3,874 yuan per ton, stopping the decline. This week, the social inventory rate was 33.59%, up 0.83% month - on - month; the domestic refinery asphalt total inventory level was 28.49%, down 0.46% month - on - month; the domestic asphalt plant operating rate was 24.89%, down 6.37%. The geopolitical conflict restricts the procurement of heavy crude oil by local refineries, and the raw material cost is rising. However, the terminal demand for road infrastructure has not started, so the asphalt market is in a game between "strong cost" and "weak demand" [3][5] 3.1.4 Polyester Chain - The polyester chain rose sharply overnight. The paraxylene futures main contract hit the daily limit, closing at 10,218 yuan per ton. The TA605 contract closed at 6,660 yuan per ton during the day session, up 7.42%; the EG2605 contract closed at 4,577 yuan per ton, up 6.32%. The export of paraxylene from South Korea increased. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are still sluggish. The operating rate of domestic ethylene - cracking ethylene glycol enterprises has decreased, and the operating rate of Asian naphtha cracking plants has also been lowered. The polyester chain is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [5][7] 3.1.5 Rubber - On Wednesday, the main rubber contracts on the SHFE rose. The main RU2605 contract rose 65 yuan per ton to 17,180 yuan per ton, the NR main contract rose 35 yuan per ton to 13,720 yuan per ton, and the butadiene rubber BR main contract rose 680 yuan per ton to 15,615 yuan per ton. In February, China's automobile production and sales decreased. The import of natural and synthetic rubber from January to February decreased by 1.4% year - on - year. The export of rubber from Cote d'Ivoire decreased slightly. The synthetic rubber price rebounded following the cost. The natural rubber is likely to start tapping in mid - to - late March in China. The rubber market is expected to fluctuate [7] 3.1.6 Methanol - On Wednesday, the spot price of methanol in Taicang was 2,660 yuan per ton, and the price in Inner Mongolia's north line was 2,085 yuan per ton. The supply of domestic methanol is at a high - level shock, and the overseas supply from Iran remains low. The demand is also at a low level. The arrival of goods in March will continue to decline, which will support the price. However, the low load of MTO units will put pressure on inventory reduction [8] 3.1.7 Polyolefins - On Wednesday, the mainstream price of East China PP was 8,100 - 8,400 yuan per ton. The supply of polyolefins is expected to decrease as upstream device maintenance plans increase. The demand from downstream factories is increasing. The market is in a de - stocking stage, and the fundamental pressure is not large. Short - term geopolitical risks increase volatility [8] 3.1.8 Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - On Wednesday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China increased. The geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the ethylene - based PVC, but the profit of the calcium - carbide - based PVC is strengthening rapidly. The supply is expected to remain high, and the demand will gradually recover. The PVC market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [9] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The document provides the daily data monitoring of various energy and chemical products, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes. For example, the spot price of Oman crude in the Pacific Rim was 792.11 yuan per barrel on March 11, and the futures price of SC was 649.20 yuan per barrel, with a basis of 142.91 yuan per barrel and a basis rate of 22.01% [10] 3.3 Market News - The US military threatens to attack Iranian civilian ports along the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran responds that all regional ports will become "legitimate targets" if its ports and docks are threatened. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran states that the Strait of Hormuz is under its strict control. The EIA inventory report shows that US commercial crude inventories increased by 3.8 million barrels to 443.1 million barrels as of March 6, and the inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, and along the US Gulf Coast reached their highest levels in recent years [12] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The document shows the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [14][16][18] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - The basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc., are presented, showing the basis changes over time [29][30][33] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The inter - period contract spread charts of various products, including fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc., are provided, reflecting the price differences between different contracts [39][40][41] 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - The inter - variety spread charts, such as the spread between domestic and international crude oil, the B - W spread of crude oil, the high - low sulfur spread of fuel oil, and the spread between ethylene glycol and PTA, are shown [54][56][60] 3.4.5 Production Profits - The production profit and processing fee charts of various products, including LLDPE, PP, PTA, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol, are presented [63][64] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures energy and chemical research team, including the deputy director Zhong Meiyan, the energy and chemical research director Du Bingqin, the natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and the methanol/propylene/pure benzene PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo, along with their professional backgrounds and achievements [68][69][70]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the intensification of the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran, the oil price opened sharply higher on Monday, with significant increases in WTI, Brent, and SC2604 contracts. The conflict has led to the cancellation of war - risk insurance for ships in the Gulf region, near - stagnation of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and potential disruptions to oil facilities, changing the crude oil pricing mechanism and causing a rapid decline in demand - country inventories. The SC oil price may show higher elasticity [1]. - For fuel oil, the supply of low - sulfur arbitrage goods from Northwest Europe in March will decrease, while the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is sufficient. After the holiday, downstream ship - fueling activities will gradually resume, and domestic refinery demand may support high - sulfur demand. The escalation of the Middle - East situation may cause the prices of FU and LU to rise significantly and increase market volatility [3]. - The asphalt market shows a situation of both weak supply and demand in the short term. In March, production will increase slightly, and demand depends on the start of post - holiday terminal projects. The escalation of the Middle - East situation may cause the BU price to rise with the oil price and increase market volatility [3]. - For the polyester sector, affected by the war in the Middle - East and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, the risk premium of crude oil has increased, and the cost support of the polyester sector is strong. PX and PTA are almost at the daily limit, and ethylene glycol hits the daily limit. The geopolitical premium is expected to continue, and the polyester sector will follow the upward trend [5]. - For rubber, affected by the war in the Middle - East and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, butadiene rubber strengthened during the day. It is the low - production season for rubber at home and abroad. The probability of a smooth start of domestic tapping in March is high. Although the heavy - truck sales in February decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, export orders are good, and the start - up repair momentum in March is strong. It is expected that the rubber price will be in a strong and volatile state [7]. - For methanol, the arrival in March will continue to decline, which will support the price, but the reduction of MTO device load will put pressure on inventory reduction. The unclear situation in Iran will cause the methanol price to fluctuate greatly [7]. - For polyolefins, the market is in a de - stocking rhythm in March, with little fundamental pressure. The short - term geopolitical risk will push up the crude oil price, and polyolefins will follow the upward trend. There is a possibility of the situation escalating [9]. - For PVC, the supply in March will remain at a high level, and the downstream industry's start - up rate is gradually rising. Although the export situation is expected to be good, the price increase is limited due to factors such as loose supply and limited rigid demand. It is expected to maintain a volatile state [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: After the intensification of the US - Iran conflict, the oil price opened sharply higher on Monday. WTI 4 - month contract rose by 4.21 dollars to 71.23 dollars/barrel, a 6.28% increase; Brent 5 - month contract rose by 4.87 dollars to 77.74 dollars/barrel, a 6.68% increase; SC2604 closed at 566.9 yuan/barrel, up 55.9 yuan/barrel, a 10.94% increase. The conflict has led to the cancellation of war - risk insurance for ships, near - stagnation of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and potential disruptions to oil facilities, changing the pricing mechanism and causing a decline in demand - country inventories. The SC oil price may show higher elasticity [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main contract of fuel oil FU2605 rose 9% to 3186 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2605 rose 8.99% to 3757 yuan/ton. The supply of low - sulfur arbitrage goods from Northwest Europe in March will decrease, and the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is sufficient. After the holiday, downstream ship - fueling activities will gradually resume, and domestic refinery demand may support high - sulfur demand. The escalation of the Middle - East situation may cause the prices of FU and LU to rise significantly and increase market volatility [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main contract of asphalt BU2604 rose 5.98% to 3529 yuan/ton. The asphalt market shows a situation of both weak supply and demand in the short term. In March, production will increase slightly, and demand depends on the start of post - holiday terminal projects. The escalation of the Middle - East situation may cause the BU price to rise with the oil price and increase market volatility [3]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 5552 yuan/ton, up 5.75%; EG2605 closed at 3925 yuan/ton, up 6%. PX futures main contract 605 closed at 7836 yuan/ton, up 5.98%. Affected by the war in the Middle - East and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, the risk premium of crude oil has increased, and the cost support of the polyester sector is strong. PX and PTA are almost at the daily limit, and ethylene glycol hits the daily limit. The geopolitical premium is expected to continue, and the polyester sector will follow the upward trend [5]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai rubber RU2605 rose 90 yuan/ton to 17245 yuan/ton, and the main contract of NR rose 105 yuan/ton to 13870 yuan/ton, and the main contract of butadiene rubber BR rose 835 yuan/ton to 13465 yuan/ton. In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles, a nearly 30% month - on - month decrease and an 8% year - on - year decrease. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a 17% year - on - year increase. Indonesia's exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in January decreased by 22% year - on - year. Affected by the war in the Middle - East and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, butadiene rubber strengthened during the day. It is the low - production season for rubber at home and abroad. The probability of a smooth start of domestic tapping in March is high. Although the heavy - truck sales in February decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, export orders are good, and the start - up repair momentum in March is strong. It is expected that the rubber price will be in a strong and volatile state [7]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2328 yuan/ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's north line was 1910 yuan/ton, the CFR China price was 259 - 263 dollars/ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was 320 - 325 dollars/ton. The arrival in March will continue to decline, which will support the price, but the reduction of MTO device load will put pressure on inventory reduction. The unclear situation in Iran will cause the methanol price to fluctuate greatly [7]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East - China drawn PP was 6700 - 6800 yuan/ton. The profit margins of various production methods of PP and PE were mostly negative. In March, the market is in a de - stocking rhythm, with little fundamental pressure. The short - term geopolitical risk will push up the crude oil price, and polyolefins will follow the upward trend. There is a possibility of the situation escalating [9]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Monday, the price in the East - China PVC market was stable, the price in the North - China market rose slightly, and the price in the South - China market increased for some materials. In March, enterprise maintenance is rare, and production will remain at a high level. The downstream industry's start - up rate is gradually rising, and rigid - demand procurement is gradually released. Although the export situation is expected to be good, the price increase is limited due to factors such as loose supply and limited rigid demand. It is expected to maintain a volatile state [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the daily data monitoring of multiple energy - chemical varieties, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes on March 2 and February 27, 2026, as well as the percentile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - With the escalation of the Iran conflict, the war - risk insurance for ships in the Gulf region has been cancelled, and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about one - fifth of the world's oil and gas transportation, is almost at a standstill. As of Sunday, at least 150 ships, including oil tankers and LNG carriers, have anchored in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters [12]. - A preliminary survey shows that the US crude - oil inventory is estimated to have increased last week, while the distillate and gasoline inventories may have declined. Analysts expect that as of the week ending February 27, the US crude - oil inventory increased by about 2.2 million barrels. The API will release the crude - oil inventory weekly report at 5:30 on Wednesday Beijing time, and the EIA will release it at 23:30 on Wednesday Beijing time [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing - price charts of the main contracts of multiple energy - chemical varieties from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, PP, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European - line container shipping, and p - xylene [14][15][17][20][23][24][25]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of multiple energy - chemical varieties from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [28][29][33]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of multiple energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [34][36][40][42][44][46]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report shows the spread and ratio charts of inter - variety contracts of multiple energy - chemical varieties, including crude - oil internal - external spreads, crude - oil B - W spreads, fuel - oil high - low - sulfur spreads, fuel - oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene - glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural - rubber - 20 - number - rubber spread [49][51][53][55]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report presents the production - profit and processing - fee charts of multiple energy - chemical varieties, including LLDPE, PP, PTA, and ethylene - made ethylene glycol [57][58]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won the "Outstanding Analyst" award from Shanghai International Energy Exchange in 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2023. Her team has won the Excellent Industry Service Team Award from Shanghai International Energy Exchange in 2021 and 2022, and the Best Industrial Product Analyst Award from Futures Daily in 2023 and 2024. She has more than ten years of experience in futures derivatives market research [61]. - **Du Bingqin**: Director of Energy and Chemical Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison and a bachelor's degree in finance from Shandong University. She has won the Outstanding Energy and Chemical Analyst Award from Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2022 and 2023, and the Best Industrial Product Analyst title from Futures Daily in 2022, 2023, and 2024. Her team has won the Excellent Industry Service Team Award from Shanghai International Energy Exchange in 2021 and 2022 [62]. - **Di Yilin**: Rubber and polyester analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in finance. She has won the "New - star Analyst" award from Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2023, the Excellent Author award from China Mold Information magazine in 2023, and the "Best Industrial Product Futures Analyst" title from Futures Daily in 2024. Her team has won the Best Energy and Chemical Industry Futures Research Team Award from Futures Daily in 2024 [63]. - **Peng Haibo**: Methanol, propylene, pure - benzene, polyolefin, and PVC analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in engineering and an intermediate economist title. He has won the Excellent Author award from China Mold Information magazine in 2024. His team has won the Best Energy and Chemical Industry Futures Research Team Award from Futures Daily in 2024 [64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical situation has intensified, and the commodity market may continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term. The resonance of the US dollar and crude oil remains strong. The short - term safe - haven sentiment will boost precious metals, and the subsequent trend depends on the development of the war. Different commodity sectors have different trends affected by geopolitical factors and fundamentals [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Overall market**: The commodity market rose 3.56% last week, with precious metals leading the rise at 8.55%, followed by non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, agricultural products, and black metals, with increases of 8.55%, 4.53%, 2.14%, and 0.33% respectively. The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market rebounded, and the black and energy sectors had large fluctuations. The overall market scale shrank significantly, and all sectors had net capital outflows [1][5] - **Specific varieties**: The top - rising varieties were tin, silver, and crude oil, with increases of 23.27%, 16.36%, and 6.01% respectively. The top - falling varieties were coke, coking coal, and PVC, with decreases of 2.76%, 2.45%, and 2.3% respectively [1][5] 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious metals**: Short - term safe - haven sentiment will boost precious metals to continue to run strongly. The subsequent trend depends on whether the war develops towards negotiation or greater intensity [1] - **Non - ferrous metals**: After the intensification of the US - Iran conflict, the resource attribute value of the sector has increased, but the US dollar is supported by oil prices, which suppresses the sector. The domestic post - holiday resumption of work is progressing steadily, but the inventory of the sector remains high. The sector may fluctuate in the short term [2] - **Black metals**: After the holiday, the apparent demand for rebar has rebounded month - on - month, the output remains low, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The iron - making water output has increased, but the steel mill profits are still poor, and the subsequent increase rhythm may be relatively slow. The global shipment of iron ore is strong, and the domestic port inventory continues to accumulate and is at a historical high. The coking coal futures price has a premium over Mongolian coal, and it is difficult to decline significantly in the short term [2] - **Energy**: The US - Iran conflict has escalated to a full - scale military confrontation. Iran has banned ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and international oil prices have risen rapidly. Geopolitical risks will continue to support crude oil prices [2] - **Chemicals**: Iran is an important supplier of high - sulfur fuel oil and methanol. The supply of these two varieties has short - term positive drivers. Rising oil prices drive downstream products in the olefin and polyester industries. The supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol may improve in the second quarter [2] - **Agricultural products**: External policy disturbances are large. Trump's 10% tariff policy has taken effect, which affects China's soybean imports. Rising crude oil prices drive vegetable oils. The export of Malaysian palm oil is weak, and the high - inventory situation is expected to continue. The oil - meal ratio may rise in the short term [3] 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had positive returns last week, with returns ranging from 3.04% to 3.64%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 3,314.52 billion yuan, with a 1.02% increase. The trading volume decreased significantly [34] - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF had a return of - 0.35%, the soybean meal ETF had a return of 1.05%, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a return of 2.78%, and the silver fund had a return of 13.54%. The total scale of commodity ETFs was 3,550.35 billion yuan, with a 1.24% increase, and the trading volume decreased by 23.55% [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic commodity futures market closed with mixed results, with most new energy materials rising. Shipping futures led the gains, while chemical products led the losses [1]. - The US economy shows a weak - stable total and a differentiated structure. The manufacturing PMI in January was favorable, but the non - manufacturing sector weakened, and employment data was below expectations [1]. - In China, the boost from the incremental policies in Q4 2025 to the fundamentals has not been significant, but policy expectations are gradually increasing. The manufacturing PMI in January declined, but the expectation of policy support in Q1 is strengthening [1]. - Domestic equity markets are supported by policy expectations and additional liquidity. Treasury bonds are neutral, with better short - term opportunities. Gold in precious metals maintains a long - position standard, while silver is on hold. Non - ferrous metals are still promising, and short - term dips can be used for bottom - fishing. Black commodities are volatile, and crude oil may rise but with high uncertainty [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Domestic Commodity Futures**: Shipping futures led the gains, with the container shipping index (European line) up 6.40%. New energy materials mostly rose, with lithium carbonate up 3.66%. Basic metals mostly rose, with Shanghai nickel up 1.79%. Agricultural and sideline products all rose, with apples up 1.73%. Energy products all rose, with fuel oil up 1.09%. Chemical products led the losses, with butadiene rubber down 1.93%. Oils and fats mostly fell, with palm oil down 1.50%. Precious metals were mixed, with palladium down 1.48%. Black series all fell, with ferrosilicon down 1.47%. Non - metallic building materials all fell, with PVC down 0.78% [1]. - **Financial Market**: On February 12, 2026, among stock index futures, CSI 500 futures rose 1.31%, and CSI 1000 futures rose 1.09%. Among Treasury bond futures, 30 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.06%. The US dollar index rose 0.06%, and the US dollar intermediate price decreased by 108 pips [9]. - **Industry Index**: On February 12, 2026, among the中信 industry indices, non - ferrous metals rose 0.98%, and machinery rose 1.29%, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery fell 1.48%, and consumer services fell 1.75% [10][11]. - **Overseas Commodities**: On February 11, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil rose 1.45%, ICE Brent oil rose 1.21%, COMEX gold rose 1.53%, and LME nickel rose 3.29% [12][13]. - **Domestic Main Commodities**: On February 12, 2026, the container shipping European line rose 5.27%, lithium carbonate rose 12.33% weekly, and iron ore fell 0.11% daily [14][15][16]. 3.2 Sector Analysis - **Finance**: Before the holiday, it may be volatile. Stock index futures may be volatile and slightly stronger, stock index options should continue to hold call options for defense, Treasury bond futures are supported by monetary easing expectations, and gold and silver are in a stage of adjustment with reduced capital enthusiasm [5]. - **Shipping**: The OOCL's March online price is $3130/FEU, and the market is in a state of shrinking trading volume and consolidation before the holiday [5]. - **Black Building Materials**: In the off - season, contradictions are accumulating, and the market is under pressure. Steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc. are all in a volatile state [5]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials**: The expected trading of "Woshi Eagle" is weakening, and basic metals stop falling and are volatile. Nickel, stainless steel, and tin are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [5]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Concerns about the Middle East situation continue to disrupt oil prices, and the chemical industry continues to be in a state of volatile consolidation [6]. - **Agriculture**: Optimistic sentiment supports US soybeans, and domestic double - meal is mainly volatile. Most agricultural products are in a volatile state, and the pig price is running at a low level [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. The oil price is affected by factors such as inventory accumulation and geopolitical relations, and is expected to fluctuate repeatedly. The fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and PVC markets are also affected by supply - demand relationships, cost, and inventory factors, and are expected to maintain a volatile trend [1][2][4][6][8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the oil price center dropped. The EIA raised the forecast of US oil production for this year and next, while the demand forecast remained unchanged. Global oil production growth is expected to exceed demand, increasing inventory and pressuring prices. API data shows a significant weekly increase in crude oil inventory. The market focuses on US - Iran diplomatic relations and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine ceasefire. It is expected that the oil price will continue to fluctuate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures prices rose on Tuesday. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure in Singapore is under pressure in the short term, but the inflow of arbitrage cargoes is expected to decrease in March. The high - sulfur fuel oil market fundamentals are strengthening. Both FU and LU are greatly affected by geopolitical situations and crude oil costs, and it is recommended to hold light positions before the holiday [2] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price remained flat on Tuesday. The supply is stable, and the port inventory of diluted asphalt has increased. The demand is basically over before the Spring Festival. The market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price follows the cost - end oil price. It is recommended to hold light positions before the holiday [2] - **Polyester**: PX and PTA prices are expected to follow the cost and fluctuate weakly. The polyester load is accelerating to weaken, and the terminal is on holiday, with raw materials and finished products slightly accumulating. The ethylene glycol supply is stable and the demand is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [4] - **Rubber**: The rubber futures prices rose on Tuesday. The cost - end raw material prices have support for inventory preparation. The fundamentals show weak supply and demand, and the port inventory slightly accumulates. It is expected that the rubber price will maintain a volatile trend [4][6] - **Methanol**: The methanol supply is in high - level oscillation, and the Iranian supply is at a low level. The demand has rigid support. The decline in Iranian shipments will lead to a decline in arrivals in February, which will support the price. The MTO device load is still at a low level, and the port de - stocking speed will not be fast. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate narrowly [6] - **Polyolefin**: The upstream device has no large - scale maintenance plan, and the production volume remains at a high level. The downstream factories will gradually enter the shutdown state. The polyolefin will gradually start to accumulate inventory, and it is expected that the price will fluctuate narrowly [6][8] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The PVC market price declined slightly on Tuesday. The supply maintains high - level oscillation, and the domestic demand slows down. The export will have support before April 1st. It is expected that the PVC price will maintain a bottom - level oscillation [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy and chemical products on February 10th and 9th, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, linear low - density polyethylene, polypropylene, purified terephthalic acid, ethylene glycol, styrene, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and soda ash [9] 3.3 Market News - API data shows that last week, the US API crude oil inventory increased by 1.34 billion barrels, the Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 140 million barrels, the gasoline inventory increased by 330 million barrels, and the distillate oil inventory decreased by 200 million barrels [11] - The EIA released the latest short - term energy outlook report, raising the forecast of US oil production for this year and next, while the US oil demand forecast remained unchanged. Global oil production growth is expected to exceed demand, increasing inventory and pressuring prices [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report provides the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, p - xylene, and bottle chips [13][15][17][19][21][24][26][28] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report provides the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [30][35][36][37][39][40] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [42][44][47][50][52][54][56] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report provides the spread and ratio charts of inter - variety of various energy and chemical products, including crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W spread, fuel oil high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spread [58][60][61][63] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report provides the production profit and processing fee charts of various energy and chemical products, including LLDPE, PP, PTA processing fee, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow [65][67] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than ten years of experience in futures derivatives market research, has won many awards, and has served many listed companies and well - known domestic enterprises [71] - **Du Bingqin**: Director of Energy and Chemical Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain, has won many awards and has published views in many media [72] - **Di Yilin**: Rubber and polyester analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in the research of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, bottle chips and other futures varieties, has won many awards and has published views in many media [73] - **Peng Haibo**: Methanol, propylene, pure benzene, polyolefin, PVC analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with years of experience in energy and chemical spot - futures trading, has passed the CFA Level III exam [74]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Negative Outlook**: Copper, iron ore, p-xylene, PTA, MEG, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PVC [8][47][71][83][86][131] - **Neutral Outlook**: Gold, silver, zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, alumina, cast aluminum alloy, platinum, palladium, nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, polysilicon, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, log, benzene, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, container shipping index (European line), staple fiber, bottle chips, offset printing paper, pure benzene, soybean meal, soybean, corn, sugar, cotton, eggs, peanuts [5][11][15][18][25][28][32][39][44][51][56][60][64][66][114][116][122][123][134][136][145][148][153][157][160][163][167][172][181] - **Positive Outlook**: None 2. Core Views - The report provides an in - depth analysis of various commodities, including their price trends, supply - demand relationships, and market news. It emphasizes the importance of considering macro - economic factors, industry policies, and geopolitical events when evaluating investment opportunities in the commodity market. For example, factors such as international trade agreements, central bank policies, and geopolitical tensions can significantly impact commodity prices [7][12][31]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to rebound in a volatile manner, with China's central bank increasing its gold reserves for the fifteenth consecutive month [5][7]. - **Silver**: Likely to decline from its high level [5]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Platinum is expected to recover in a volatile state, while palladium rebounds following the precious metals sector [28]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Trading is cautious, and prices are volatile. Industry news includes potential changes in copper resource reserves and production adjustments by major companies [8][10]. - **Zinc**: Prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [11]. - **Lead**: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices are volatile [15]. - **Tin**: Prices are in a consolidation phase [18]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to post - holiday inventory reduction. Alumina prices are expected to converge in a volatile manner, and cast aluminum alloy prices follow those of electrolytic aluminum [25]. - **Nickel**: Affected by pre - holiday capital outflows, the medium - term contradiction lies in Indonesia. Stainless steel has frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and cost support has shifted upwards [32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - related**: The report does not directly cover crude oil, but related products such as fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are analyzed. Fuel oil is in a narrow - range adjustment, and the short - term weakness has eased. Low - sulfur fuel oil is in a weak and volatile state, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels continues to decline [134]. - **Chemicals**: PX is in a pre - holiday range - bound market with a weakening monthly spread. PTA is in a range - bound market, and MEG requires range - bound operations. Synthetic rubber is under pressure and volatile. LLDPE has a narrowing import window and is in a pre - holiday volatile market. PP has limited valuation repair, and export weekly orders are declining. Caustic soda has rising costs and a low valuation [71][83][86][89][92]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Related Products**: Overnight US soybeans rose slightly, and Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate. The spot market for soybeans is gradually entering the holiday mode, and the futures price is volatile [157]. - **Corn**: The decline is expected to be limited [160]. - **Sugar**: Prices are in a narrow - range consolidation [163]. - **Cotton**: Prices are expected to remain volatile before the holiday [167]. - **Eggs**: Prices are in an oscillatory adjustment [172]. - **Hogs**: The peak season is confirmed to be weak, and the release of the "backlog" has begun [176]. - **Peanuts**: Prices are in an oscillatory state [181]. Others - **Iron Ore**: Stockpiling is nearing completion, and demand expectations are weakening [47]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The apparent demand has weakened month - on - month, and prices are in a wide - range oscillation [51][52]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: There is a game between fundamentals and sentiment, and prices are in a wide - range oscillation [56]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Prices are in a high - level oscillation [60]. - **Thermal Coal**: Prices are expected to remain stable before the holiday [64]. - **Log**: Port arrivals are low, and spot prices are rising steadily [66]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The market is oscillatory [136]. - **Staple Fiber and Bottle Chips**: The short - term market is oscillatory [145]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Short positions should stop losses and exit [148]. - **Pure Benzene**: Prices are in a strong and volatile state [153].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current major driving factor for crude oil is geopolitical factors. With the U.S. increasing its military presence in the Middle East and potential actions against Iran, short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - Fuel oil prices are affected by factors such as demand recovery, supply changes, and geopolitical situations. Short - term prices of FU and LU are volatile, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - For asphalt, with a slight decline in refinery production in February and weak demand in the off - season, attention should be paid to the speed of social inventory accumulation [3]. - The polyester sector has a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. It is expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations, and attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and downstream negative feedback [5]. - Rubber prices are affected by production and consumption data, as well as cost - side factors. They are expected to follow the macro - environment and cost - side price fluctuations [5][7]. - Methanol supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. It is expected to maintain bottom - level fluctuations [7]. - Polyolefins are expected to gradually start accumulating inventory, but short - term prices are strong due to cost and geopolitical risks, showing wide - range fluctuations [8]. - PVC has a structure of weak reality and strong expectation. It is expected to maintain bottom - level fluctuations, with support in the short - term and upward pressure in the long - term [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices rose significantly. WTI March contract rose $2.21 to $65.42 per barrel, a 3.50% increase; Brent March contract rose $2.31 to $70.71 per barrel, a 3.38% increase; SC2603 closed at 480.9 yuan per barrel, up 13.9 yuan per barrel, a 2.98% increase. The U.S. has increased its military presence in the Middle East, and OPEC+ will hold a meeting on Sunday. The current major driving factor for oil prices is geopolitical factors, and short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. As of the week of January 26, Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory decreased, while Fujeirah's inventory increased. The low - sulfur fuel oil market in Singapore is supported by demand, but there may be inventory accumulation pressure in the future. High - sulfur fuel oil has mixed factors. Short - term prices of FU and LU are volatile, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. This week, domestic asphalt shipments decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased. In February, refinery production is expected to decline slightly, and demand is weak in the off - season. Attention should be paid to the speed of social inventory accumulation [3]. - **Polyester**: TA605 and EG2605 closed down on Thursday. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. A polyester factory in Shandong has shut down for maintenance, and a MEG device in Fujian has restarted. The polyester sector has a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and is expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. According to the ANRPC December report, global natural rubber production decreased and consumption increased in December. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber increased slightly. Rubber prices are expected to follow the macro - environment and cost - side price fluctuations [5][7]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, methanol spot prices showed different trends in different regions. Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. MTO device load has decreased, and port inventory reduction is under pressure. It is expected to maintain bottom - level fluctuations [7]. - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, polyolefin prices showed different trends. Supply is at a high level as some upstream maintenance devices have resumed production. Demand will weaken as downstream factories approach the Spring Festival holiday. It is expected to gradually start accumulating inventory, but short - term prices are strong due to cost and geopolitical risks, showing wide - range fluctuations [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, PVC prices in different regions showed different trends. Supply is at a high level, and domestic demand is slowing down. PVC has a structure of weak reality and strong expectation. It is expected to maintain bottom - level fluctuations, with support in the short - term and upward pressure in the long - term [8]. Daily Data Monitoring The report provides the daily basis data of various energy - chemical products on January 30, 2026, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their changes and historical quantiles [9]. Market News - Due to U.S. President Trump's consideration of military strikes against Iran, an OPEC member, crude oil prices rose by more than 3%. Trump is weighing targeted strikes against Iranian security forces and leaders to support anti - government protesters and create conditions for regime change [11]. - Trump has deployed the "Abraham Lincoln" aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East and warned Iran that the time to reach an agreement on its nuclear program is running out. The market is worried that U.S. military intervention will lead to an interruption in regional crude oil supply, and potential supply risks continue to support oil prices [11]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The report provides the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [13][15][17] - **Main Contract Basis**: The report provides the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc. [32][35][39] - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as the spread between fuel oil 01 - 05 and 05 - 09 contracts, the spread between asphalt main and sub - main contracts, etc. [45][47][50] - **Inter - commodity Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - commodity contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as the spread between crude oil internal and external markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils, etc. [61][64][66] - **Production Profit**: The report provides the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, such as the production profit of LLDPE, the processing fee of PTA, etc. [68][70]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC, are rated as "volatile" [1][2][4][6]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation in Venezuela has led to short - term fluctuations in crude oil prices. OPEC and non - OPEC countries' production plans and Venezuela's actual supply situation will affect the oil market. Overall, short - term downside risks for oil prices are limited [1]. - The fuel oil market is under pressure due to sufficient supply. High - sulfur fuel oil has some demand support, while low - sulfur fuel oil demand is weak. Both high - and low - sulfur fuel oil prices are expected to follow oil price fluctuations [2]. - The asphalt market has bottom support from raw materials and supply, but there is uncertainty in future raw material supply. Prices are expected to stabilize and strengthen [4]. - The rubber market is affected by factors such as heavy - truck sales and overseas production. With minor fundamental contradictions, rubber prices are expected to fluctuate [4]. - The methanol market has a supply - demand balance. A decline in Iranian shipments will support prices, while compressed MTO device profits may put pressure on prices. It is expected to maintain a low - level, strong - side fluctuation [6]. - The polyolefin market has a supply reduction in January and a demand recovery in the first half of the month. However, inventory is expected to increase in the second half of the month, so prices will fluctuate at the bottom [7]. - The PVC market has high - level supply, weak domestic demand, and a weak - reality, strong - expectation structure. Price increases are limited, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices rose. WTI February contract closed up $0.10 to $58.32 per barrel, Brent March contract closed up $1.01 to $61.76 per barrel, and SC2602 closed up 1.3 yuan to 428.1 yuan per barrel. OPEC and 8 major non - OPEC countries will maintain the production plan and pause production increases in February and March. Venezuela has large oil reserves, but short - term supply has increased marginally, and medium - term uncertainty remains. Overall, short - term downside risks for oil prices are limited [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. Singapore's fuel oil supply is expected to be sufficient in January - February, with high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil supply increasing. High - sulfur fuel oil demand is strong, while low - sulfur fuel oil demand is weak. The market is under pressure, and prices are expected to follow oil price fluctuations [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. Diluted asphalt port arrivals are stable in the short term, but there is uncertainty in future raw material supply. With winter - storage contracts supporting the bottom, asphalt prices are expected to stabilize and strengthen [4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, rubber - related contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. In December 2025, China's heavy - truck sales decreased by about 16% month - on - month but increased by about 13% year - on - year. Indonesia's rubber exports increased. With minor fundamental contradictions, rubber prices are expected to fluctuate [4]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, methanol - related prices were reported. In January, domestic production is expected to increase slightly, and imports will decline. Demand has certain support. Iranian shipments decline will support prices, while compressed MTO device profits may put pressure on prices. It is expected to maintain a low - level, strong - side fluctuation [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, polyolefin - related prices were reported. In January, supply will decrease slightly, and demand will recover in the first half of the month but weaken in the second half. Inventory is expected to increase in the second half of the month, and prices will fluctuate at the bottom [7]. - **PVC**: On Monday, PVC market prices in different regions showed narrow fluctuations. Supply remains high, domestic demand slows, and there is a weak - reality, strong - expectation structure. Price increases are limited, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis of various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, linear low - density polyethylene, polypropylene, etc. It shows spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [9]. 3.3 Market News - US President Trump stated that US investment in Venezuela's oil industry is a key goal, and the US embargo on Venezuelan oil remains in effect. OPEC and 8 major non - OPEC countries will maintain the production plan and pause production increases in February and March to stabilize the oil market [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents historical price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [13][14][15]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows historical basis charts of main contracts for various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [30][34][35]. - **4.3 Inter - contract Spreads**: The report provides charts of inter - contract spreads for different products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [42][44][48]. - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: It presents charts of inter - product spreads, such as crude oil's internal - external spread, B - W spread, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, etc. [59][61][63]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows production profit charts for LLDPE and PP [68]. 3.5 Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including Deputy Director Zhong Meiyan, Research Director Du Bingqin, Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst Di Yilin, and Methanol/Propylene/Pure Benzene PE/PP/PVC Analyst Peng Haibo, along with their educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences [72][73][74]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is in the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone, with a phone number, fax number, customer service hotline, and postal code provided [77].