Core Viewpoint - The company is facing a dual challenge of declining revenue and increasing losses, primarily due to the significant downturn in its traditional core business of "information and appointment services" [2][6][11]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company's total revenue was 297 million RMB, a year-on-year decline of 6.6%, with net losses expanding to 33.1 million RMB, a 56.13% increase from the same period in 2024 [3]. - The company's revenue experienced significant fluctuations in recent years: 1) 2021 revenue reached 1.692 billion RMB, up 30.7% due to the recovery of the medical beauty industry and acquisitions; 2) 2022 saw a sharp decline of 25.7% to 1.258 billion RMB; 3) 2023 revenue rebounded to 1.498 billion RMB (+19.1%); 4) 2024 revenue slightly decreased to 1.467 billion RMB (-2.1%) [4][5]. - The net profit turned positive in 2023 at 21.28 million RMB but turned into a significant loss of 589 million RMB in 2024, primarily due to goodwill impairment related to a previous acquisition [5] [11]. Core Business Decline - The main reason for the negative revenue growth is the drastic decline in the traditional core business of "information and appointment services," which fell by 19.3% from 1.151 billion RMB in 2023 to 929 million RMB in 2024, now accounting for only 63.4% of total revenue [6][11]. - This core business, which previously constituted 100% of revenue in 2020, has been severely impacted by competition from emerging platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu, which have diverted advertising budgets from medical beauty institutions [6][11]. New Business Development - In response to the pressure on traditional business, the company launched the "Brand Aesthetic Center" in 2023, generating revenue of 13 million RMB, which grew to 169 million RMB in 2024 [7][11]. - Despite rapid revenue growth in the light medical beauty chain business, its profitability remains weak, with gross margins of only 22.26% in 2024 and further declining to 18.78% in Q1 2025 [8][11]. Cost and Operational Challenges - The operational costs of the light medical beauty chain business have surged, with costs rising from 9.6 million RMB in 2023 to 132 million RMB in 2024, representing 77.7% of revenue [8][10]. - The company faces challenges in managing the operational efficiency of its new business model, which differs significantly from its traditional medical beauty operations [11].

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Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The 618 shopping festival saw a total e-commerce sales of 855.6 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.2% [23][24] - The beauty sector performed well during the 618 festival, with total GMV across four major platforms reaching 65.9 billion yuan, growing over 10% year-on-year [23][24] - International high-end beauty brands showed signs of recovery, with brands like Lancôme and Estée Lauder maintaining strong positions on platforms like Tmall and Douyin [32] Summary by Sections Retail Market Overview - The retail industry index closed at 2062.20 points, down 2.75% for the week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.24 percentage points [5][14] - The retail sector has seen a year-to-date decline of 7.89%, lagging behind the overall market performance [14][17] 618 Shopping Festival Insights - The 618 shopping festival was extended to the longest duration in history, from May 13 to June 20, 2025 [23] - Tmall's GMV during the festival grew by 10%, marking the largest increase in three years, with 453 brands achieving over 100 million yuan in sales [24][29] - Douyin's e-commerce saw over 60,000 brands doubling their sales, with more than 2,000 products exceeding 10 million yuan in sales [24][29] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-quality companies in high-growth sectors driven by emotional consumption themes, particularly in gold and jewelry, offline retail, cosmetics, and medical aesthetics [6][35] - Recommended companies include Lao Pu Gold, Chao Hong Ji, Mao Ge Ping, and Pei Lai Ya, among others [38] Company Performance Highlights - Lao Pu Gold reported a revenue of 8.506 billion yuan for FY2024, up 167.5%, with a net profit increase of 253.9% [37] - Mao Ge Ping achieved a revenue of 3.885 billion yuan for FY2024, growing by 34.6%, with a net profit increase of 33% [37] - Pei Lai Ya's revenue for 2024 was 10.778 billion yuan, up 21%, with a net profit increase of 30% [37]

Industry Changes - In May, domestic brands such as Zhenjia, Feicui, PA, and Perfect Diary showed strong performance on Tmall and Douyin, with Feicui's GMV exceeding 60 million, and several brands achieving over 100% growth [1] - The import value of cosmetics in May decreased by 4.9% year-on-year, totaling 10.19 billion, indicating a downward trend in overall imported cosmetics despite some recovery among foreign beauty brands [2] Company Updates - Ruoyu Chen raised its share repurchase price significantly from 30.22 yuan to 88.4 yuan per share, reflecting confidence in the company's future development [1] - Ying Tong Group, a major player in the Chinese perfume market, is preparing for its listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with projected revenue of 2.083 billion for FY2025, representing an 11.8% year-on-year increase [2] - Juzi Holding Co., Ltd, the controlling shareholder of Juzi Biotechnology, plans to increase its stake by no less than 200 million HKD, indicating confidence in the company's long-term value [2] Retail Sector Insights - Chow Tai Fook reported a revenue of 89.66 billion HKD for FY25, a decrease of 17.5%, but showed signs of recovery with a narrowing decline in retail sales [4] - Yonghui Supermarket is accelerating its store renovation plan, aiming to complete renovations for 300 stores by the Lunar New Year in 2026 [5] Investment Recommendations - The current low valuation combined with new consumer growth remains a core theme, with a focus on domestic leading brands and the upcoming 618 shopping festival as a potential catalyst [3] - The jewelry sector is recommended, particularly Chow Tai Fook, with attention to other low-valuation Hong Kong jewelry companies [6][14] - New consumption trends in the jewelry sector are expected to drive growth, with a shift in consumer demographics towards younger buyers and a focus on self-purchase attributes [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities highlights the significant growth potential in China's medical aesthetics industry, driven by increasing awareness and an aging customer base, with injectable products expected to outpace overall industry growth due to supply-side improvements [1] Market Growth - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for the medical aesthetics market is positive, with a projected terminal scale exceeding 230 billion yuan in 2023 and a CAGR of 10%-15% from 2024 to 2027; injectables are expected to grow at a CAGR of 20%-30% over the next five years [1] - The report indicates that the number of medical aesthetic treatments per thousand people in South Korea, Japan, and China are 91 (2019), 71 (2023E), and 34 (2023E) respectively, suggesting significant room for growth driven by increased awareness and an aging population [1] Development Trends - The competitive landscape for products is expected to evolve into a U-shaped pattern, with initial high concentration due to regulatory barriers, followed by increased competition, and ultimately a return to higher concentration as operational capabilities differentiate companies [2] - The medical aesthetics industry is characterized by "limited innovation," making operational capabilities increasingly important; leading companies are expected to benefit from their established operational strengths [2][3] Investment Recommendations - There are opportunities for product breakthroughs, particularly in non-hyaluronic acid materials, with over 110 approved injectable products in China, and limited competition in other categories; new product approvals, especially in botulinum toxin and other innovative materials, are anticipated to drive market growth [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of comprehensive operational capabilities, with leading companies expected to maintain their competitive edge in a market characterized by limited innovation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The medical beauty industry in China has significant market potential, driven by increasing awareness and an aging customer base, with injection products expected to grow faster than the overall industry due to supply-side support [1] Industry Summary - The medical beauty market in China is characterized by a large market space and growth opportunities due to evolving consumer awareness and demographic trends [1] - The evolution of product categories is creating development opportunities, with the scarcity of new licenses contributing to product advantages [1] - The competitive landscape is expected to evolve into a U-shaped pattern as the number of approvals increases, shifting competition from products to a comprehensive capability in marketing, market presence, and management [1] Company Summary - The Chinese market exhibits "limited innovation" characteristics, where leading companies are likely to maintain their competitive edge through operational capabilities [1] - Two investment themes are recommended: focusing on product category iterations and breakthroughs, as well as the comprehensive capability development of medical beauty enterprises, with a particular emphasis on the sustained leadership of top companies [1]

Group 1: White Goods Sector - Investment in the white goods sector primarily focuses on the stability of company performance, with a steady increase in dividend rates and valuation uplift due to declining risk-free interest rates [1] - The black goods sector presents investment opportunities mainly due to performance elasticity against the backdrop of enhanced global competitiveness [1] - Investment opportunities in clean appliances arise from the deep integration of the industry since Q3 2023, leading to opportunities for leading companies [1] - The penetration of AI and embodied robotics technology is expected to introduce attractive new smart products for certain companies [1] Group 2: U.S. Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to potentially restart interest rate cuts in October, following a cautious stance in the June meeting where inflation and unemployment rate forecasts were raised while growth expectations were lowered [2] - The main obstacles to rate cuts are uncertainties surrounding tariffs and inflation, particularly how tariffs will impact inflation over time and magnitude [2] - Evidence of tariff impacts on inflation is anticipated in the inflation reports from June to August, which could influence the Fed's decision to cut rates in October if core goods do not significantly transmit inflation to services [2] Group 3: Medical Aesthetics Industry - The medical aesthetics industry in China has significant market potential, driven by increased awareness and an aging customer base, with injection-related products expected to grow faster than the overall industry due to supply-side drivers [3] - Product evolution and iteration create development opportunities, with new certificate scarcity building product dividends and a potential U-shaped market evolution as long-term approvals increase [3] - Competitive factors are shifting from products to a comprehensive capability in marketing, market presence, and management, with leading companies likely to maintain their advantage through operational excellence [3] - Two investment themes are proposed: focusing on product iteration and breakthroughs, and emphasizing the comprehensive capabilities of leading medical aesthetics companies [3]

Core Insights - The "post-exam economy" is emerging as a significant trend among high school graduates, characterized by a surge in consumption related to travel, electronic products, and personal development activities [1][8]. Travel Consumption - High school graduates are increasingly engaging in emotional consumption, with travel being a primary focus. For instance, a graduate from Hubei took a spontaneous trip to Chongqing right after the exams, benefiting from various discounts offered to graduates [2][3]. - Data from Ctrip indicates that travel product bookings surged by 88% from June 9 to June 11, with many graduates opting for immediate travel post-exams, viewing it as a rite of passage [3]. Electronic Products - There is a notable increase in "reward-based consumption," particularly in electronic products such as smartphones, computers, and tablets, as parents purchase these items as rewards for their children after exams. Sales of these products have peaked during this period [4]. - Promotions during the 618 shopping festival have further boosted sales, with some products seeing a sales increase of 40% to 50% [4]. Personal Development - Graduates are also focusing on personal development activities, such as obtaining driving licenses and engaging in fitness training. Many graduates are enrolling in driving schools and gyms to prepare for their next life stages [6]. - The demand for corrective procedures, such as vision and dental corrections, has also risen, with Meituan reporting a 108% increase in vision surgery orders and nearly 30% growth in dental procedures [7][8]. Market Trends - The consumption preferences of high school graduates are shifting towards personalized and experiential products, driving market upgrades and product iterations [5]. - The "post-exam economy" is not just a short-term consumption spike but a reflection of the evolving needs and preferences of young consumers, suggesting a need for businesses to adapt and enhance their offerings [8].

Group 1: Retail Industry Overview - The retail industry is focusing on three main investment themes for the second half of 2025: strong product momentum, improved operational conditions, and large comprehensive enterprises [7] - The beauty and personal care sector is showing strong performance, with a year-on-year growth of 62.51% in Q1 2025 for companies like Jinbo Biological and 28.01% for Marubi Biological [38] - The jewelry sector is witnessing a shift towards lighter and more affordable gold products, driven by younger consumers and the trend of diversification in the market [7] Group 2: Consumer Confidence and Sales Performance - In the first quarter of 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 12.47 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [14] - The consumer confidence index showed a recovery trend in early 2025, indicating a positive outlook for retail consumption [14] - The beauty and jewelry categories experienced year-on-year retail sales growth of 5.48% and 8.06% respectively in the same period [14] Group 3: E-commerce and Offline Trends - E-commerce sales showed a mixed performance, with a total sales index of 50.6% in May 2025, reflecting a slight decline compared to previous months [23] - The offline retail market is stabilizing, with a noticeable recovery in shop rental rates, which reached 53.6% in April and May 2025 [29] - The operating space index showed fluctuations but remained stable, indicating a cautious approach to new store openings [29] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong product momentum and operational improvements, such as Proya, Giant Biological, and Marubi Biological [62] - The beauty sector is highlighted for its resilience and growth potential, with specific companies recommended for investment based on their strong performance metrics [62] - The medical beauty sector is also emphasized, particularly companies that are expanding their product lines and improving operational capabilities [7][63]

Core Points - The National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) has released a guideline for the pricing of cosmetic surgery services, aiming to standardize and regulate the pricing of cosmetic procedures [1][2] - The guideline includes 101 cosmetic surgery projects, such as injection fees, rhinoplasty fees, and fat transfer fees, with a focus on clear and understandable naming conventions for services [1][3] - The guideline introduces a policy for additional charges for revision surgeries, recognizing the increased technical demands and time required for such procedures [2] Group 1 - The guideline standardizes the naming of cosmetic surgery services, making it easier for patients to understand the procedures and associated costs [1][3] - It includes new pricing projects for "reduction tension suturing" and "incision cosmetic modification," encouraging medical institutions to minimize scar formation through advanced techniques [3] - Most of the cosmetic procedures outlined in the guideline are not covered by health insurance and are considered out-of-pocket expenses, allowing medical institutions to set their own pricing [3] Group 2 - The guideline addresses the issue of varying quality among medical institutions in the cosmetic surgery field, which can lead to unsatisfactory results for patients [2] - It emphasizes the importance of transparency and fairness in pricing, encouraging institutions to publicly disclose their pricing structures [3] - The NHSA aims to guide provincial healthcare authorities to adopt the guidelines and assist qualified medical institutions in setting reasonable prices based on quality and service [3]