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陕西能源:控股子公司麟北煤业于2025年7月25日恢复正常生产
news flash· 2025-07-25 11:40
Core Viewpoint - Shaanxi Energy's subsidiary Linbei Coal Industry received an administrative penalty from the National Mine Safety Supervision Bureau of Shaanxi for issues related to ventilation system inadequacies, wind power lock device failures, and inaccurate training records, resulting in a fine of 1.45 million RMB [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Administrative Penalty** - Linbei Coal Industry was fined 1.45 million RMB due to safety violations [1] - **Remedial Actions** - The company has completed the required rectifications and received approval from the Linyou County Emergency Management Bureau to resume normal production on July 25, 2025 [1] - **Impact on Operations** - The penalty is not expected to have a significant impact on the company's production and operations [1]
股指周报:中美谈判在即,股指本周刷新年内高点-20250725
Zhe Shang Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 11:33
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share index has a clear bottom line, and the trading volume in the two markets has increased, driving the index to fluctuate upwards. The "anti-involution" policy has led to a full recovery of theme stocks. The 1.2 trillion hydropower project in the Yarlung Zangbo River has directly promoted the entire infrastructure industry chain such as water conservancy and building materials to strengthen. The market shows the characteristic of "blue-chip stocks setting the stage, and theme stocks performing". Futures index should be intervened after a pullback [3]. - Although the international situation is complex, the current market expectations are sufficient, and the disturbances caused by Sino-US and Iran-Israel issues are limited. The US has lifted the restrictions on H20 chips. The external influence is mainly the Fed's interest rate decision. A rate cut is beneficial for the appreciation of the RMB, the return of foreign capital, and the inflow of new incremental funds, which may start as early as September. Currently, policies to stabilize the capital market are positive, the bottom line of the stock index is clear, and new technologies and new consumption are promoting the economic expectation to stabilize and recover. After the risk-free interest rate drops to a low level, the entry of medium and long-term funds and residents into the market will enter a new cycle. A breakthrough must be accompanied by an increase in trading volume. This week, the trading volume in the two markets exceeded 1.5 trillion (MA5), and the index still has upward momentum [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - This week, domestic stock indices continued to strengthen. As of July 24, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3605.73, up 2.02% for the week and 7.58% year-to-date; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11193.06, up 2.56% for the week and 7.47% year-to-date; the ChiNext Index closed at 2345.37, up 3.00% for the week and 9.51% year-to-date; the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index closed at 1032.84, up 2.51% for the week and 9.51% year-to-date; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2812.44, up 1.73% for the week and 4.76% year-to-date; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4149.04, up 2.23% for the week and 5.44% year-to-date; the CSI 500 Index closed at 6293.60, up 3.18% for the week and 9.92% year-to-date; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 6701.12, up 2.27% for the week and 12.48% year-to-date [13]. - Among the global indices, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.78%, the S&P 500 Index rose 1.00%, and the Biotechnology Index rose 3.68%. In terms of industries, most of the 31 first-level Shenwan industry indices rose this week. Sectors such as building materials, coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals rose significantly, while a few sectors such as banks and communications fell [16]. Liquidity - In June, the total social financing exceeded expectations, and the growth rate reached a new high, rising to 4.6% (a month-on-month increase of 2.3 pct), the highest growth rate since 2023, indicating a significant improvement in corporate liquidity [14][15]. - The capital interest rate (the 7-day reverse repurchase rate of deposit-taking financial institutions in the interbank market, DR007) remained at a low level. In May, the net MLF injection was 37.5 billion yuan. The yield of the 10-year treasury bond was around 1.65%. In June, the total social financing rebounded strongly, mainly driven by policies, and the endogenous driving force still needs to be consolidated. The new social financing was 4.20 trillion yuan, an increase of 900.8 billion yuan year-on-year, and the stock growth rate rose to 8.9% (a month-on-month increase of 0.2 pct), reaching a new high this year. Government bonds increased by 507.2 billion yuan year-on-year (contributing 58% of the social financing increment), reflecting an accelerated pace of fiscal efforts, with special bonds and special-purpose bonds advancing simultaneously. New RMB loans were 2.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 110 billion yuan year-on-year, and short-term corporate loans became the main driving force. The growth rate of M2 rebounded, and M1 improved significantly. In June, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 8.3% (a month-on-month increase of 0.4 pct), mainly driven by the low-base effect (deposit diversion caused by manual interest compensation supervision in the same period in 2024) and an increase in corporate deposits [17]. Trading Data and Sentiment - This week, the trading volume increased, and the stock index continued to fluctuate strongly. The number of new accounts opened in January was 1.57 million, in February was 2.83 million, in March was 3.06 million, in April dropped to 1.92 million, in May continued to drop to 1.555 million, and in June slightly increased to 1.6464 million. On July 23, the Shanghai Composite Index reached 3600 points during intraday trading, the second-highest point since October 2024. The trading volume in the two markets (MA5) exceeded 1.5 trillion, and the index showed strong momentum, with prominent structural market conditions [26]. Index Valuation - As of July 24, 2025, the latest PE of the Shanghai Composite Index was 15.64, with a percentile of 73.34; the latest PE of the entire market was 20.81, with a percentile of 78.73. Among the major stock indices, the valuation percentiles were in the order of CSI 1000 > CSI 500 > CSI 300 > SSE 50. Note: The starting time of the valuation percentile is January 1, 2009 [34]. Index Industry Weights (as of June 30, 2025) - In the SSE 50 Index, the weights of banks, non-bank finance, and food and beverage were relatively high, at 21.34%, 11.18%, and 8.31% respectively. The electronics industry became the fourth-largest weighted industry [43]. - In the CSI 300 Index, the weights were relatively dispersed, and the top three weighted industries were banks, non-bank finance, and electronics [43]. - In the CSI 500 Index, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and non-bank finance [48]. - In the CSI 1000 Index, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and computers [48].
股指、黄金周度报告-20250725
Xin Ji Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 11:04
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - In the short term, due to the continuous fermentation of the policy expectations of "anti - involution" and eliminating backward production capacity, risk appetite rises, but corporate profits have not significantly improved, so be cautious about the short - term rebound of stock index futures and protect the profits of long positions; the end of the grace period for the US equivalent tariff policy is approaching, and trade agreements have been reached with important trading partners, leading to a significant decline in risk aversion, so gold may continue to adjust after the end of the rebound, and short positions can be attempted. In the medium to long term, the valuation of stock indices is dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth at the molecular end, and the support at the denominator end comes from the rise in risk appetite, so the stock index maintains a wide - range oscillation; the US may reach more trade agreements, risk aversion declines significantly, and with the approaching of the Fed's July interest rate decision, gold may face a deep adjustment [47] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data - From January to June this year, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment continued to decline, the decline in real estate investment widened, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment slowed down. The year - on - year decline in new housing construction area narrowed, while the decline in commercial housing sales area and sales volume widened, indicating that real estate investment will still be restricted [5] 2. Stock Index and Gold Spot Price Trends - Not provided in the content 3. Stock Index Fundamental Data 3.1 Corporate Profit - Driven by the policy expectations of "anti - involution" and eliminating backward production capacity, commodity prices have risen continuously, which helps improve the profits of upstream raw material processing industries. However, downstream enterprises still face great operating pressure and are in the stage of active inventory reduction [20] 3.2 Capital - The balance of margin trading in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has continued to increase. The central bank conducted 1.6563 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 400 billion yuan of MLF operations this week, achieving a net investment of 12.95 billion yuan [24] 4. Gold Fundamental Data 4.1 US Economic Indicators - In June, the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dropped from 59.2 to 49.5, while the Services PMI rose to 55.2, reaching a new high this year. The number of initial jobless claims has declined for 6 consecutive weeks, indicating that the US manufacturing activity has slowed down, but the labor market remains strong, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield is running at a high level [30][31] 4.2 Gold Inventory - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures have increased significantly, while the New York futures inventory has continued to decline, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled down [45]
焦煤焦炭周度报告-20250725
Zhong Hang Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 11:02
Report Summary - The National Energy Administration issued a notice to conduct a production check on coal mines in 8 provinces including Shanxi and Inner Mongolia to ensure stable coal supply, as some coal mines have been over - producing this year [5]. - This week, the main coking coal contract had multiple consecutive limit - up boards, leading the domestic assets to rise strongly. The "Yaxia" project stimulates demand growth expectations, and the notice on coal production check strengthens supply reduction expectations. Coking coal has entered a rebound channel of price increase and inventory reduction, and it is advisable to buy on dips due to high position concentration [6]. - Recently, the coke futures market has been weaker than coking coal, mainly dragged down by the steel futures market. The profit of steel mills will affect the future price increase expectations of coke [6]. Market Focus Positive Factors - Downstream enterprises are replenishing inventory, and coking coal inventory has decreased significantly [10]. - The "Yaxia" hydropower project will bring incremental infrastructure demand [7][10]. - The over - production check notice is expected to reduce coal supply [10]. - "Anti - involution" related laws are being introduced [7][10]. - During the peak electricity consumption period, the prices of related coal types have risen simultaneously [10]. - High pig iron production supports demand [10]. Negative Factors - Steel has entered the seasonal off - season, and terminal demand is limited [10]. - After the reopening of Mongolian ports, the import volume of Mongolian coal is gradually increasing [10]. Data Analysis Coking Coal Production - The domestic production growth of coking coal has slowed down, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has increased. This week, the starting rate of 523 sample mines was 86.9%, up 0.83% from last week, with a daily average clean coal output of 77.73 tons, an increase of 0.69 tons. The starting rate of 110 sample coal washing plants was 62.31%, down 0.54% from last week, with a daily output of 52.145 tons, a decrease of 1.23 tons. As of July 19, the customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port was 625,455 tons [11][14]. Coking Coal Inventory - As of the week of July 25, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 2.7844 million tons, a decrease of 606,300 tons; the clean coal inventory of 110 sample coal washing plants was 1.7561 million tons, a decrease of 159,300 tons; the port inventory was 2.9234 million tons, a decrease of 291,600 tons [15]. Coke Production and Inventory - As of July 25, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 73.45%, up 0.44% from the previous period, with a daily average metallurgical coke output of 646,000 tons, an increase of 39,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 86.97%, up 0.13% from the previous period, with a daily coke output of 471,600 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons [24]. - As of July 25, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 9.8538 million tons, an increase of 562,700 tons, and the inventory available days were 11.47 days, an increase of 0.59 days. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 801,200 tons, a decrease of 74,300 tons [18]. - As of July 25, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 7.9951 million tons, an increase of 84,100 tons, and the inventory available days were 12.75 days, an increase of 0.12 days. The coke inventory was 6.3998 million tons, an increase of 9,900 tons, and the available days were 11.45 days, a decrease of 0.01 days [22]. Coke Demand - As of the week of July 25, China's coke consumption was 1.09 million tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises was 2.4223 million tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons, and the blast furnace starting rate was 83.46%, the same as last week [26]. Coke Price Increase - As of the week of July 25, the average loss per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 54 yuan/ton, widening compared to last week. After the second - round price increase on the 23rd, the third - round price increase started quickly on the 24th, and some downstream steel mills have accepted the increase. The mainstream steel mills tendered on the 25th, with an increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on July 25 [28]. Basis Structure of Coking Coal and Coke - The spot and futures prices of coking coal and coke have risen in resonance [30]. Future Outlook Coking Coal - Mid - and downstream enterprises are increasing their procurement of raw coal. The prices of some key coking coal types in the producing areas have exceeded expectations. The tradable resources in the port spot market have slightly decreased, and the inquiry and trading volume have improved. The price of imported Mongolian coal has reached new highs, and the acceptance of high - price coal by downstream enterprises remains to be seen. Coking coal has strong internal momentum, and the previous bearish logic has ended. It is advisable to buy on dips [33]. Coke - The rapid increase in coking coal prices has led to a sharp increase in the production cost of coking enterprises, and the frequency of coke price increases has accelerated. After the third - round price increase was implemented today, there is an expectation of a fourth - round increase next week. The coke futures market is weaker than coking coal in the short term, dragged down by the steel market [36].
本轮黑色系商品上涨逻辑梳理与未来走势研判:本轮“反内卷”行情还能持续多久?-20250725
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 10:41
Report Title - "How Long Can the Current 'Anti-Involution' Market Last? - Analysis of the Rising Logic and Future Trends of Black Series Commodities" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Since the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting arranged "anti-involution" at the beginning of July, black series commodities have risen significantly. The rise has both general and special characteristics, and the price increase is mainly due to speculating on expectations in advance, which is fundamentally different from the price increase in 2016 [65]. - Whether downstream demand can cooperate after August this year is an important variable to test the "anti-involution" market. Currently, steel and hot metal production remain high, but the terminal apparent demand in the spot market is average, and there is a risk of demand falling short of expectations during the peak season [65]. - From past patterns, in August - October, which is the consumption peak season, if demand is less than expected or the implementation of "anti-involution" policies is weaker than expected, futures prices may experience a deep adjustment [65]. - The current market for some commodities has deviated from fundamental and supply - demand factors and become a situation of capital gaming. There may be a short - term peak, but if "anti-involution" policies continue to advance, the market is expected to maintain a moderately strong oscillating trend in the medium term [65]. - The screw - ore ratio is at a low level, and the strategy of going long on the screw - ore ratio has a high win - rate and odds, which is worth attention [65] Summary According to the Directory 1. General and Special Characteristics of the Rise of Black Series Commodities General Characteristics - The seasonality of rebar shows "not weak in the off - season and not strong in the peak season". May, August, and September have a high probability of decline, while December, January, and July have a high probability of rise. The seasonal pattern in 2025 is expected to be similar to that in 2014, with a limited rebound from June - July, greater downward pressure from August - October, and a certain rebound at the end of the year [8]. - The overall market maintains a weak oscillation, and there is no obvious long - term trend. It is more appropriate to adopt a medium - term band trading strategy. In July, go long on dips; from August - November, go short on rallies; after November, wait for opportunities to go long on dips in the medium term. In terms of arbitrage, going long on the screw - ore ratio or coil - ore ratio has an advantage in win - rate and odds [10]. Special Characteristics - In June, the market was overly bearish, and prices had fully reflected the consensus expectation, creating the possibility of a rise. The Central Financial and Economic Commission's Sixth Meeting on July 1st ignited the price increase, combined with subsequent central city work meetings and optimistic expectations for the Politburo meeting [14]. - Top - level attention to "anti - involution" has led various ministries to introduce relevant policies, covering industries such as photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, platform enterprises, and ten industries with over - capacity like steel, coal, chemical, building materials, and non - ferrous metals [15][17]. - Compared with the 2015 supply - side reform, the current "anti - involution" is still in the policy - introduction stage, with obvious speculation on expectations but no obvious supply contraction. Due to trade wars and the downturn in the domestic real estate market, it is difficult to see demand expansion in the long term. Whether it can reverse the bearish situation of black and chemical commodities depends on the improvement of terminal demand [19]. 2. Recent Data Interpretation of Steel Price and Basis - The rebar's spot and futures prices have rebounded, and the basis has converged from about 200 at the peak to about 86 [20][23]. - The hot - rolled coil basis has turned negative, with the basis of the 01 and 05 contracts falling from about 140 at the peak to negative values [24][29]. Production - The decline in production is mainly due to low prices and poor expectations in June. If "anti - involution" is not fully implemented and steel mills' profitability improves and the market enters the peak season, production may increase [32]. - According to the Steel Association, pig iron production has rebounded, and crude steel production has decreased slightly year - on - year. Building material production has decreased significantly, while plate production has increased slightly, and the total production has decreased slightly. Independent electric arc furnace production has decreased but is likely to rebound in the future [33][36][39]. Demand - The apparent demand for building materials is poor, while that for plates is good, and the overall demand is similar to the same period last year. Exports have increased overall, but the growth rate has slowed down, mainly driven by the rapid growth of billet exports. However, with the implementation of US tariffs, the export growth rate of billets and steel is likely to decline [42][45][47]. Profit - Recently, the prices of coking coal and coke have rebounded rapidly, and iron ore prices have also risen, while the increase in finished product prices is relatively small, resulting in a decline in steel mills' gross profit. The larger increase in furnace charge varieties indicates that measures such as production restrictions and "anti - involution" have little impact on the steel production process for now [49]. Iron Ore and Iron Water - Iron ore inventory decline has slowed down, and the proportion of trade ore is relatively high. The 05 contract's screw - ore ratio is near historical extremes, with limited room for further decline. Due to the impact of "anti - involution" on coking coal and coke prices and the relatively stable supply of iron ore, the screw - ore ratio has a large potential for increase [55][59][62]. - Iron water production remains at a high level. The peak production this year was close to 2.5 million tons, setting a record for the same period. Although the proportion of profitable steel mills is not high, it has been rising steadily, which is an important reason for the high - level iron water production. Generally, iron water production experiences a seasonal decline from July - August, and it is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation recently [50][52]. 3. Market Outlook - The current "anti - involution" market is a game between weak reality and strong expectations. Whether it can continue depends on the improvement of downstream demand. There is a risk of a short - term peak, but if policies continue to advance, the market is expected to maintain a moderately strong oscillating trend in the medium term. The screw - ore ratio strategy is worth attention [65]
穿越焦煤周期:当前行情能否比肩历史牛市?
对冲研投· 2025-07-25 10:32
Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in coking coal prices, following a significant drop earlier in the year, raises questions about the potential for a bull market, drawing parallels to historical trends in the past 20 years [1]. Group 1: Historical Bull Markets - The coking coal market has experienced four notable bull markets since the launch of coking coal futures in 2013 [1]. - The first bull market occurred in 2016, driven by supply-side reforms that reduced excess capacity, leading to a price increase from 515 points to 1676 points within the year [4][5]. - The second bull market spanned from August 2020 to March 2022, where prices surged from 1027.5 points to a peak of 3878.5 points, influenced by post-COVID recovery and supply chain disruptions [10][11]. - The third bull market, from November 2021 to May 2022, saw prices rise from 1783 points to 3297.5 points, driven by international supply chain issues and domestic production constraints [14][15]. Group 2: Recent Market Dynamics - In 2023, coking coal prices rebounded from a low of 1195 points to 2179 points, attributed to low inventory levels and supportive policies in the real estate sector [20][21]. - The market is currently experiencing strong sentiment, with expectations of continued price strength due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances [25]. - However, the medium-term outlook remains cautious, as fundamental supply-demand dynamics will ultimately dictate market conditions, necessitating close monitoring of production recovery and import levels [26].
政策利好驱动,煤焦持续走强
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 10:30
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名:涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号:F3060359 投资咨询证号:Z0011688 电话:0571-87006873 邮箱:tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书,期 货投资咨询资格证书,本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度,独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 25 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 政策利好驱动,煤焦持续走强 核心观点 焦炭:根据钢联统计,截至 7 月 25 日当期,独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂合 计焦炭日均产量 111.76 万吨,周环比增 0.46 万吨。另外,因焦炭现货价 格上涨相较于焦煤滞后,本周 30 家独立样本焦化厂吨焦盈利为-54 元/ 吨,周环比降低 11 元/吨。需求方面,全国 247 家钢厂铁水日均产量 242.23 万吨,周环比小幅下降 0.21 万吨,较去年同期偏高 2.62 万吨。 综上,焦炭基本面尚可,且反内 ...
价格法修正草案公布,强调“反内卷”,这些ETF机会值得关注!
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-07-25 10:10
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the introduction of the "anti-involution" policy through the draft amendment to the Price Law, which aims to establish standards for identifying unfair pricing behaviors and to regulate "involution-style" competition [1] - The new policy is expected to promote healthy industry development and orderly competition, allowing industries to return to normal profit levels and emphasizing product quality and service for high-quality development [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of growth stabilization plans for ten key industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, focusing on structural adjustments and eliminating outdated production capacity [1] Group 2 - The coal ETF (515220) is the only coal ETF in the market, with a scale exceeding 7 billion yuan, tracking the China Securities Coal Index, which includes thermal coal, coking coal, and coal chemicals [3] - The steel ETF (515210) is the only steel ETF in the market, with a scale exceeding 3 billion yuan, tracking the China Securities Steel Index, which includes steel plates, special steel, and metal products [3] - The building materials ETF (159745) is the largest building materials ETF in the market, tracking the China Securities All-Index Building Materials Index, which includes cement, glass, and consumer building materials [3] - The photovoltaic 50 ETF (159864) has seen a net inflow of over 200 million yuan for five consecutive days, tracking the China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index, which encompasses the entire photovoltaic industry chain, including silicon materials, silicon wafers, components, equipment, and power stations [3]
广发期货《黑色》日报-20250725
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 09:15
Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The rise of steel is mainly policy - driven. After the confirmation of the anti - involution expectation in the coal industry on the 22nd, it is expected that ferrous metals will continue to be strong. Considering the short - term fundamental contradictions are not significant and the market sentiment has not fully fermented, it is recommended to avoid short positions and hold long positions [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some steel products have changed. For example, the price of hot - rolled coil spot in East China increased by 20 yuan/ton, while the price of hot - rolled coil spot in South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The prices of different contracts of steel also showed fluctuations [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The costs of steel production processes such as steel billet, electric furnace, and converter have changed. The profits of hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased, while the profits of threaded steel in some regions increased [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average pig iron output increased by 1.1%, the output of five major steel products decreased by 0.1%, and the inventory of five major steel products decreased by 0.1%. The inventory of some steel products such as threaded steel decreased, while the inventory of hot - rolled coils increased [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 22.6%, the apparent demand for threaded steel increased by 5.0%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 2.6% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The 09 contract of iron ore showed a volatile downward trend. In the short - term, iron ore will oscillate. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions at high levels and adopt the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [4]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: The prices of different types of iron ore and their spreads showed small fluctuations. For example, the price of PB powder increased by 0.3%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.0% [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The global iron ore shipment volume increased, the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased, and the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to decline slightly. The demand side shows high - level pig iron production, and the terminal demand is strong in the off - season [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly, the inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel mills decreased, and the available days of inventory in 64 steel mills increased [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The coke futures rose strongly, and the spot market improved with multiple rounds of price increase expectations. The coking coal futures also rose strongly, and the spot market continued to rise. It is recommended to gradually reduce long positions of coke at high levels, adopt the strategy of going long on coke and short on iron ore for coke, and hold long positions of coking coal and gradually reduce them at high levels, and adopt the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore for coking coal [6]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: The prices of coke and coking coal and their spreads changed. For example, the price of Shanxi first - class wet - quenched coke remained unchanged, and the price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) increased by 4.5% [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of coke was affected by factors such as slow coal mine复产 and corporate losses, and the demand increased due to the resumption of blast furnaces. The supply of coking coal was in short supply, and the demand increased due to the high - level pig iron production [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of coke decreased in some links and increased in others, showing an overall medium - level state. The inventory of coking coal decreased significantly in mines, ports, and other places, and the inventory of downstream increased [6].
动力煤早报-20250725
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 09:09
最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 646.0 2.0 11.0 28.0 -204.0 25省终端可用天数 22.2 -0.1 2.3 1.3 4.6 秦皇岛5000 583.0 2.0 11.0 37.0 -172.0 25省终端供煤 588.2 -0.6 -20.3 -51.8 -34.6 广州港5500 730.0 0.0 5.0 20.0 -185.0 北方港库存 2703.0 3.0 11.0 -132.0 180.2 鄂尔多斯5500 425.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 -205.0 北方锚地船舶 110.0 -5.0 11.0 27.0 41.0 大同5500 500.0 0.0 15.0 40.0 -190.0 北方港调入量 172.0 25.9 3.0 2.3 16.1 榆林6000 562.0 0.0 -5.0 0.0 -267.0 北方港吞吐量 153.9 -22.4 -4.1 -4.5 4.1 榆林6200 590.0 0.0 -5.0 0.0 -267.0 CBCFI海运指数 720.8 -6.2 -12.4 28.3 1 ...