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黑色建材日报-20250710
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 02:12
黑色建材日报 2025-07-10 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号:F03098415 交易咨询号:Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号:F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号:F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号:F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3063 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 0 元/吨(0%)。当日注册仓单 44905 吨, 环 比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 217.4941 万手,环比增加 6394 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价格 为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3160 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约收 盘价为 3190 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 1 元/吨(-0.03%)。 当日注册仓单 64587 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力 合约持仓量为 158.2553 万手,环比减少 11138 ...
永安期货铁合金早报-20250710
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 01:31
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - No relevant information provided Summary by Related Catalogs Price - For silicon iron, on July 10, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 natural block was 5050 yuan, with a daily change of -50 yuan and a weekly change of -50 yuan; the latest price of Inner Mongolia 72 natural block was 5150 yuan, with a daily change of 50 yuan and a weekly change of 50 yuan. The export price of Tianjin 72 was 1010 US dollars, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -10 US dollars. The主力合约 price was 5392 yuan, with a daily change of 42 yuan and a weekly change of -44 yuan [2]. - For silicon manganese, on July 10, 2025, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 was 5500 yuan, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 0; the latest price of Guangxi 6517 was 5570 yuan, with a daily change of 20 yuan and a weekly change of 20 yuan. The主力合约 price was 5718 yuan, with a daily change of 68 yuan and a weekly change of -8 yuan [2]. Supply - The monthly production of 136 silicon iron enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 is presented, with the data ranging from 350,000 to 550,000 tons. The weekly production of 136 silicon iron enterprises (with a capacity - share of 95%) in China from 2021 - 2025 is also shown, with the data fluctuating [4]. - The monthly production of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 is presented, with the data ranging from 5500 to 9000 tons [6]. Demand - The monthly estimated and revised production of crude steel in China from 2021 - 2025 is presented, with the data ranging from 6500 to 10500 tons. The monthly production of stainless - steel crude steel in China from 2021 - 2025 is also shown, with the data ranging from 0 to 4000 tons [4]. - The monthly demand for silicon manganese in China (according to Steel Union's data) from 2021 - 2025 is presented, with the data ranging from 20 to 70 tons [4]. Inventory - The weekly inventory of 60 sample silicon - iron enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 is presented, with the data ranging from 30,000 to 110,000 tons. The daily total number of silicon - iron warehouse receipts on CZCE from 2021 - 2025 is also shown, with the data ranging from - 1000 to 15000 [5]. - The daily total number of silicon - manganese warehouse receipts on CZCE from 2021 - 2025 is presented, with the data ranging from 0 to 140,000. The weekly inventory of 63 sample silicon - manganese enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 is also shown, with the data ranging from 6500 to 10000 tons [7]. Cost and Profit - The electricity prices for ferroalloys in Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025 are presented, with the prices ranging from 0.3 to 0.7 yuan per degree. The production cost and profit of silicon iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025 are also shown [5]. - The profit of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region from 2021 - 2025 is presented, with the profit data showing different fluctuations [7].
永安期货铁合金早报-20250709
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 01:50
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Not provided in the given content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - The latest prices of silicon ferroalloy in different regions and varieties are presented, such as the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon ferroalloy natural block is 5100, with a daily change of -50 and a weekly change of 0 [1]. - The prices of silicon manganese in different regions and varieties are also shown, like the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon manganese is 5500, with a daily change of -50 and a weekly change of 0 [1]. - The prices of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese in different contracts and their changes are provided, including the price of the silicon ferroalloy main contract is 5350, with a daily change of -14 and a weekly change of 80 [1]. Supply - The production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China are shown, including monthly and weekly production, as well as the capacity utilization rate in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4]. - The production data of silicon manganese, including weekly production and the purchase volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group, are presented [6]. Demand - The demand data of silicon manganese in China (Steel Union caliber) and the export quantity of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese are provided [4][7]. - The production data of related industries such as crude steel, stainless - steel crude steel, and metal magnesium are presented, which may affect the demand for ferroalloys [4]. Inventory - The inventory data of 60 sample enterprises of silicon ferroalloy in China and different regions (Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi) are shown, as well as the inventory data of silicon manganese, including warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of them [5][7]. - The average available days of silicon ferroalloy inventory in different regions (East China, South China, North China) and in China are presented [5]. Cost and Profit - The cost - related data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese, such as electricity prices in different regions, the market price of semi - carbon manganese ore, and the price of chemical coke, are provided [5][6]. - The profit - related data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese in different regions, including the profit of silicon ferroalloy export, the profit of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia and Guangxi, are presented [5][7].
黑色建材日报-20250709
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 00:56
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has declined, and the prices of finished products are showing a weak and volatile trend. The policy suggestion of "anti-involution and capacity reduction" has boosted market sentiment and driven short - term steel price increases, but the implementation of relevant policies remains to be verified. The implementation of Vietnam's anti - dumping policy on Chinese hot - rolled steel may suppress exports, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policies and the Politburo meeting in late July [3]. - Iron ore prices are in a wide - range volatile state in the short term, affected by factors such as seasonal changes in supply, iron water production decline, and macro expectations [6]. - Manganese silicon and silicon iron markets are fundamentally bearish, but in the short term, prices are more influenced by emotions and expectations. It is recommended that speculative positions remain on the sidelines and hedging positions look for opportunities to operate when the market rallies [9][10]. - Industrial silicon is in a supply - surplus and demand - deficient situation. The short - term price is in a wide - range oscillation, and the trading focus in July will be on macro and policy expectations [15]. - For glass, policy expectations have a strong impact on prices, and short positions should avoid and wait. For纯碱, the supply is loose and the inventory pressure is large, and it is expected to show a weak and volatile trend [17]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3063 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.065%) from the previous trading day. The number of registered warrants was 44,905 tons, a net increase of 8,464 tons. The position of the main contract was 2.168547 million lots, a net decrease of 28,783 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3191 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The number of registered warrants was 64,587 tons, unchanged. The position of the main contract was 1.593691 million lots, a net increase of 8,136 lots [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The export pressure has increased due to Vietnam's anti - dumping policy. For rebar, both apparent supply and demand have increased, but the inventory clearance speed has slowed down. For hot - rolled coils, production has slightly increased, demand has decreased, and inventory has slightly accumulated [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 733.00 yuan/ton, up 0.27% (+2.00), with a position change of +7312 lots to 655,200 lots. The weighted position was 1.0841 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 724 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 34.36 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.48% [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The latest iron ore shipments have decreased seasonally, and the daily average pig iron production has decreased. The terminal demand is neutral, and the port inventory has changed little. The price is in a wide - range volatile state in the short term [6]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Price and Position Data**: On July 8, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 0.07% at 5650 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5580 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 120 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of silicon iron (SF509) closed down 0.26% at 5350 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin was 5430 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 80 yuan/ton over the futures [8][9]. - **Market Analysis**: The fundamental situation is bearish, but in the short term, prices are affected by emotions and expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative positions and look for hedging opportunities when the market rallies [9][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Position Data**: On July 8, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed up 2.11% at 8215 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 was 8500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 285 yuan/ton over the futures. The 421 market price was 9050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 35 yuan/ton over the futures [13]. - **Market Analysis**: It is in a supply - surplus and demand - deficient situation. The short - term price is in a wide - range oscillation, and the trading focus in July will be on macro and policy expectations [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Data**: For glass, the spot price in Shahe was 1151 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and in Central China was 1030 yuan, unchanged. As of July 3, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 69.085 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 131,000 heavy boxes (-0.19%) from the previous period and an increase of 10.57% year - on - year. For soda ash, the spot price was 1168 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day. As of July 7, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8481 million tons, an increase of 38,600 tons (2.13%) from last Thursday [17]. - **Market Analysis**: For glass, policy expectations have a strong impact on prices, and short positions should avoid and wait. For soda ash, the supply is loose and the inventory pressure is large, and it is expected to show a weak and volatile trend [17]
欧盟对涉华硅铁发起第三次反倾销日落复审调查
news flash· 2025-07-08 07:23
据中国贸易救济信息网消息,2025年6月30日,欧盟委员会发布公告称,应Euroalliages于2025年3月28日 提交的申请,对原产于中国和俄罗斯的硅铁发起第三次反倾销日落复审调查,审查若取消现行反倾销措 施,涉案产品的倾销和对欧盟国内产业构成的损害是否将继续或再度发生。 ...
永安期货铁合金早报-20250708
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 02:32
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Related Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, the latest prices, daily and weekly changes of different grades in various regions (such as Ningxia 72, Inner Mongolia 72) are presented, along with the prices of different contracts (like the main contract, 01 contract) and related price differences (e.g., main month basis, 1 - 5 month spread) [1]. - For silicon manganese, the latest prices, daily and weekly changes of different grades in various regions (such as Inner Mongolia 6517, Ningxia 6517) are shown, as well as the prices of different contracts and related price differences [1]. Supply - The monthly and weekly production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China, and the monthly capacity utilization rates of these enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi are provided [4]. - The weekly production data of silicon manganese in China is presented [6]. Demand - The demand data of silicon manganese in China (in ten thousand tons, according to the Steel Union's caliber), and the monthly production forecast and statistical data of crude steel in China are provided [4][7]. - The procurement prices and quantities of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group are given [4][6]. Inventory - The weekly inventory data of 60 sample silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, as well as the daily data of CZCE silicon ferroalloy warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and their sum are presented [5]. - The daily data of CZCE silicon manganese warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and their sum, and the weekly inventory data of 63 sample silicon manganese enterprises in China are provided [7]. Cost - Profit - The electricity prices in regions such as Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi, and the market prices of raw materials like blue carbon, silica dioxide, and oxidized iron scale are presented [5]. - The production costs, spot profits, and profits after converting to the main contract in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia for silicon ferroalloy are given [5]. - The profits of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region (according to the Steel Union's caliber), and the profits after converting to the main contract in Guangxi and Ningxia for silicon manganese are provided [7].
黑色建材日报-20250708
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 02:20
黑色建材日报 2025-07-08 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号:F03098415 交易咨询号:Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号:F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号:F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号:F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3061 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 11 元/吨(-0.35%)。当日注册仓单 36441 吨, 环比增加 7273 吨。主力合约持仓量为 219.733 万手,环比减少 41257 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3150 元/吨, 环比减少 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3191 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 10 元/吨(-0.31%)。 当日注册仓单 64587 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 158.5555 万手,环比增 ...
华宝期货黑色产业链周报-20250707
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 12:58
Report Overview - **Report Title**: [Huabao Futures] Weekly Report on the Black Industry Chain [1] - **Report Date**: July 7, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - **Overall**: The market conditions of various varieties in the black industry chain are complex. There are opportunities for price rebounds in some varieties, but there are also risks affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and seasons. It is recommended to operate with caution and pay attention to relevant influencing factors [9][10][11] - **Specific Varieties**: - **成材**: Recommend a strategy of shorting on rebounds [9] - **Coal and Coke**: The price volatility intensifies, and the supply - demand pressure of coking coal eases slightly [10] - **Ferroalloys**: The supply - demand pattern tends to be loose, and prices are expected to follow the black market trend without more independent market trends [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 01 周度行情回顾 - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From June 27 to July 4, 2025, the prices of most varieties in the black industry chain showed an upward trend. For example, the futures price of rebar RB2510 increased from 2995 to 3072, with a rise of 2.57%, and the spot price increased by 2.92%. However, the prices of some varieties such as coking coal and ferrosilicon decreased slightly [7] 3.2 02 本周黑色行情预判 - **成材** - **Logic**: Last week, the operating rates of blast furnaces and electric arc furnaces decreased, and the daily output of molten iron decreased. The steel price rebounded due to the anti - involution storm and production restrictions in some steel mills in Tangshan. However, it is currently the off - season of demand, and factors such as high temperature and rainfall may affect the height of the rebound [9] - **View**: Short on rebounds [9] - **Later Concerns**: Macroeconomic policies and downstream demand [9] - **Coal and Coke** - **Logic**: After the end of the safety production month and the inspection, some coal mines resumed production, which cooled the bullish sentiment. The anti - involution and capacity - reduction policies also disturbed the market sentiment, and the price volatility intensified [10] - **View**: The market sentiment is volatile recently, the supply - demand pressure of coking coal eases slightly, and the prices of coal and coke fluctuate more violently [10] - **Later Concerns**: Coal production data, the sustainability of high daily output of molten iron in steel mills, and changes in imported coal clearance [10] - **Ferroalloys** - **Logic**: The central government's policy to regulate low - price competition in enterprises affected the market. On the supply side, the production and operating rates of silicon - manganese and ferrosilicon increased; on the demand side, the demand increased slightly last week but may weaken in the future; on the inventory side, silicon - manganese inventory accumulated slightly, and ferrosilicon inventory decreased slightly; on the cost side, the cost support of silicon - manganese increased, and that of ferrosilicon was stable [11] - **View**: The macro - environment has warmed up, and the supply - demand pattern of ferroalloys tends to be loose. Prices are expected to follow the black market trend. Pay attention to supply - side disturbances and environmental protection requirements [11] - **Later Concerns**: Tariff policy evolution, domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel mill profits and production, and domestic production restrictions [11] 3.3 03 品种数据 3.3.1 成材 - **Rebar** - **Production and Apparent Demand**: Last week, the production was 221.08 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.24 million tons; the apparent demand was 224.87 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.96 million tons [13] - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 545.21 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.79 million tons [20] - **Basis**: In Shanghai, the basis for the 10 - month contract was 98 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week increase of 13 yuan/ton [34] - **Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Production and Apparent Demand**: Last week, the production was 328.14 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.9 million tons; the apparent demand was 324.37 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.88 million tons [26] - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 344.93 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.77 million tons [31] - **Basis**: In Shanghai, the basis for the 10 - month contract was 49 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton [41] 3.3.2 煤焦 - **Coke** - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 930.72 million tons last week, a week - on - week decrease of 10.17 million tons [49] - **Profit and Production**: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 52 yuan last week, a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan; the daily output was 64.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 million tons [64] - **Basis**: The basis for the 1 - month contract of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke was - 193 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week increase of 11 yuan/ton [71] - **Coking Coal** - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 2566.65 million tons last week, a week - on - week decrease of 4.11 million tons [56] - **Production**: The daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines was 73.9 million tons last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 million tons [65] - **Basis**: The basis for the 1 - month contract of Meng 5 clean coal was - 96 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week increase of 17 yuan/ton [74] 3.3.3 铁合金 - **Spot Price**: The price of manganese ore in Tianjin Port increased by 0.5 yuan/dry ton degree week - on - week; the spot price of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia remained flat week - on - week; the spot price of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week [80] - **Inventory**: The inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese sample enterprises was 22.23 million tons on July 4, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 million tons; the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 6.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.244 million tons [11] - **Production and Demand**: The production of silicon - manganese and ferrosilicon increased week - on - week; the weekly demand for silicon - manganese and ferrosilicon of the five major steel varieties increased by 0.72% and 0.63% respectively week - on - week [11]
硅铁篇:2011-2015年熊市周期与当前周期的比较
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 12:23
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The silicon ferroalloy market has experienced significant price fluctuations due to factors such as over - capacity, policy impacts, and changes in supply - demand balance. The current market is characterized by over - capacity, and the price trend is downward due to weak demand and the release of new production capacity [8][23][26]. - The core contradictions in the market include structural over - capacity, the buffering effect of energy - consumption dual - control policies, and the game between profit and policy [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic and Supply - Demand Background - From 2011 - 2015, the global financial crisis had a lingering impact, with slow economic recovery in Europe and the US. China's GDP growth rate dropped from 18.2% in 2011 to 7.1% in 2015, and supply - side reforms affected the steel industry chain, which in turn influenced the demand for silicon ferroalloy. From 2020 to the present, the pandemic led to a contraction in industrial and manufacturing demand, and later, infrastructure and export demand drove a V - shaped rebound in steel demand, supporting silicon ferroalloy demand but with limited pulling power [3]. Price Fluctuations - Due to over - capacity in the Chinese silicon ferroalloy industry and limited demand, prices dropped rapidly from 2013 - 2015 and 2022 - 2024. Policy shocks such as the implementation of supply - side reforms in 2016 and the energy - consumption dual - control policy in 2021 had a significant impact on the price, indicating a common driving mechanism between policy and capacity adjustment [8]. Capacity Changes - From 2011 - 2024, the national silicon ferroalloy production capacity increased from 6.5 million tons to 11.024 million tons, an expansion of nearly 70%. There was a significant increase in capacity in regions like Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi. From 2011 - 2015, there was an acceleration in capacity investment, followed by a phase of capacity replacement [11]. - Currently, the average capacity utilization rate of silicon ferroalloy has not exceeded 62% since 2023, and only Inner Mongolia has maintained a relatively high capacity utilization rate. The annual output of silicon ferroalloy has stabilized at around 5.5 million tons, with Inner Mongolia and Ningxia having relatively large market shares [13]. Policy Impacts - In 2011, 2.127 million tons of ferroalloy production capacity was eliminated, and in 2014, 2.343 million tons was eliminated, including small - scale ore - heating furnaces of various ferroalloys. In 2016, supply - side reforms led to the elimination of backward production capacity in the steel industry [16]. - In 2021, the energy - consumption dual - control policy led to power and production restrictions in major production areas. Inner Mongolia implemented a policy to withdraw the production capacity of ore - heating furnaces below 25,000KVA and 30,000KVA. Other provinces also carried out power and production restrictions to meet energy - consumption targets, which initially led to an expected supply contraction and price increase, but later the supply did not actually decrease significantly [17][18][19]. Current Market Situation - In 2021, although the silicon ferroalloy industry was affected by the energy - consumption dual - control policy, the actual reduction in production at the industrial level was limited, and the overall supply remained high. Compared with 2013, the total industry capacity expanded by nearly 70% while the annual output was similar. Weak demand due to a pessimistic real - estate environment led to a downward price trend [23]. - As of July 2025, the over - capacity problem remains unsolved. The prices of electricity and semi - coke, which account for about 60% and 14% of the current silicon ferroalloy cost respectively, are the main short - term drivers of price changes. The price of silicon ferroalloy continues to decline [24].
黑色金属数据日报-20250707
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 06:11
【钢材】周末现货跟涨动能转弱 宏观层面近期都没有太多新增的风险,导致市场情绪还行的,资金愿意入场交易risk on,短暂利好风险资产。具体到行情 上,前一周市场波动放大,"反内卷"的导火线带来资金的跟随,期现正套以及前期反套被空单可能会带来短期现货成交 投机需求的放量,但现货反馈周二周三成交尚可,周四周五现货成交蓄力是跟不上的;倾向于若短期未看到实质性政策出 台,则对利润的利好影响及成材价格的独自利好并不能持续太久。期现维度,黑色板块品种的基差远期持续收缩,焦煤、焦 炭都出现期货升水,铁矿石期货接近平水,螺纹钢的基差通过近几日的反弹再度收缩了一波,卷、螺期价重回升水,利于集 现正套以及套保头寸的主动入场。周末观察现货跟涨的动能并不强劲,现货商不追涨。现货持货意愿不强,有利润快速兑现 以及高周转,感觉仍是市场的主流思路,暂不认为黑色行情进入反转状态。 胎年金属数据日报 | 2025/07/07 | | 国贸期货出品 ITG国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | 张宇慧 | ...