汽车/乘用车 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/3/25 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 369.59 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 403.40/201.17 | | 总市值(亿元) | 11,232.08 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 4,296.17 | | 总股本(亿股) | 30.39 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 11.62 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 75.68 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 比亚迪 沪深300 相关研究报告 《闪电配售破浪前行，全球化及智能 化进程再提速—公司信息更新报告》 -2025.3.5 《发布天神之眼 C 高阶智驾，开创全 民智驾新时代—公司信息更新报告》 -2025.2.11 比亚迪（002594.SZ） 2025 年 03 月 26 日 《销量创新高/利润率环比提升， DM5.0 红利加速释放—公司信息更新 报告》-2024.11.1 Q4 业绩高增，"兆瓦闪充+智驾平权"开启新征程 ——公司信息更新报告 | 任浪（分析师） | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that BYD achieved a revenue of 777.1 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 40.25 billion yuan, up 34.0% year-on-year, driven by a 41.3% increase in annual sales [6] - The launch of the Super e platform is expected to significantly boost the pure electric vehicle business, enhancing charging capabilities and overall product performance [6][7] - The report anticipates continued growth in 2025, supported by high-level intelligent driving features across all models, international sales growth, and the introduction of new high-end models [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for BYD are as follows: 2025E at 989.1 billion yuan, 2026E at 1,134.8 billion yuan, and 2027E at 1,275.6 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 27.3%, 14.7%, and 12.4% [8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to reach 53.43 billion yuan in 2025E, 66.56 billion yuan in 2026E, and 79.09 billion yuan in 2027E, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.7%, 24.6%, and 18.8% respectively [8] - The report indicates a projected P/E ratio of 21.3 for 2025, 17.1 for 2026, and 14.4 for 2027, reflecting a positive long-term outlook [8]

从指数持仓来看，沪深300汽车与零部件指数十大权重分别为：比亚迪（38.78%）、福耀玻璃 （10.74%）、赛力斯（10.71%）、上汽集团（8.18%）、长安汽车（7.4%）、拓普集团（4.53%）、赛 轮轮胎（4.49%）、长城汽车（3.76%）、德赛西威（3.7%）、华域汽车（3.27%）。 数据统计显示，沪深300汽车与零部件指数近一个月下跌3.48%，近三个月上涨5.64%，年至今上涨 5.04%。 据了解，为反映沪深300指数样本中不同行业公司证券的整体表现，为投资者提供分析工具，将沪深300 指数300只样本按行业分类标准分为11个一级行业、35个二级行业、90余个三级行业及200余个四级行 业。沪深300行业指数系列分别以进入各一级、二级、三级、四级行业的全部证券作为样本编制指数， 形成沪深300行业指数。该指数以2004年12月31日为基日，以1000.0点为基点。 沪深300汽车与零部件指数报10278.68点，前十大权 重包含上汽集团等 金融界3月26日消息，上证指数低开震荡，沪深300汽车与零部件指数 (300汽车，L11506)报10278.68 点。 从沪深300汽车与零部件指数 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [107]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is expected to replicate the 2020 market conditions, driven by the dual trends of electrification and automation, with a significant focus on smart driving technologies [3][101]. - The penetration rate of L3 autonomous driving in new energy vehicles is projected to increase significantly, with expectations of a twofold growth in 2025 compared to the previous year [3][102]. - The report emphasizes the importance of smart driving as the core theme for the automotive sector in 2025, with a strong recommendation for investment in both vehicle manufacturers and component suppliers [3][101]. Summary by Sections Industry Sentiment Tracking - February production and sales figures met expectations, with a production volume of 1.736 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 17.6% [11][14]. - The wholesale sales volume reached 1.767 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 36.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 15.9% [11][14]. - The retail sales volume under compulsory insurance was 1.280 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 19.2% but a month-on-month decrease of 28.0% [14]. New Energy Tracking - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in wholesale sales reached 46.3%, with a month-on-month increase of 4.04 percentage points [21][23]. - Retail penetration for new energy vehicles was 51.3%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 11.70 percentage points [20][23]. Autonomous Driving Tracking - The penetration rate of L3 autonomous driving in new energy vehicles was 16.6%, with a month-on-month increase of 1.6 percentage points [45]. - Key players like Wanjie and Xiaopeng showed significant penetration rates, with Wanjie's autonomous driving penetration reaching 74.7% [49]. Component Market Tracking - The report highlights a trend of increasing penetration of high-end intelligent components, with DLP and ADB headlight penetration rates at 0.77% and 11.13%, respectively [81]. - The penetration rate for air suspension was 13.28%, while the HUD penetration rate was 17.42% [86][90]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a comprehensive bullish outlook on the vehicle sector, emphasizing smart driving as the core theme, with specific recommendations for companies like Xiaopeng, Li Auto, and BYD [3][101]. - For component suppliers, the focus is on AI chips and domain controllers, with companies like Horizon Robotics and Desay SV expected to benefit [3][101].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD [5] Core Views - In 2024, BYD achieved a revenue of 777.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 40.25 billion yuan, up 34.0% year-on-year [1] - Despite intense price competition in the industry, BYD's profitability continues to improve due to the scale effect driven by popular models from the DM5.0 platform [1][2] - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 19.44%, a decrease of 0.77 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to cost reclassification and price wars [2] Financial Performance - Revenue from automotive and electronics segments in 2024 reached 617.4 billion yuan and 159.6 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 28% and 35% [1] - The average selling price (ASP) of vehicles in 2024 was 145,000 yuan, down 9% year-on-year [1] - The net profit for Q4 2024 was 15 billion yuan, with a single vehicle net profit of 0.94 thousand yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1% quarter-on-quarter [1] Market Position and Strategy - BYD's domestic market remains strong, supported by policies promoting vehicle trade-ins and the simultaneous iteration of hybrid and pure electric platforms [2] - The company is expected to enhance its model introduction in overseas markets, with new factories contributing to significant growth in the long term [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for BYD from 2025 to 2027 are 55.5 billion yuan, 67.6 billion yuan, and 80.1 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 21, 17, and 14 times [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD [5] Core Views - In 2024, BYD achieved a revenue of 777.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 40.25 billion yuan, up 34.0% year-on-year [1] - The fourth quarter of 2024 met expectations, with a single vehicle net profit of 0.94 million yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Despite fierce price competition in the industry, BYD's profitability continues to improve due to the scale effect driven by popular models [1][2] - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 19.44%, down 0.77 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to cost reclassification and price wars [2] - The domestic market remains strong, with ongoing support from vehicle replacement policies and a robust product lineup, while global expansion is steadily progressing [2] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 was 777,102 million yuan, with a growth rate of 29.0% year-on-year [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 40,254 million yuan, with a growth rate of 34.0% year-on-year [4] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is 55,483 million yuan, 67,625 million yuan, and 80,146 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21, 17, and 14 times [2][4] - The latest diluted EPS for 2024 is 13.25 yuan, with projections of 18.26 yuan, 22.25 yuan, and 26.37 yuan for the following years [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][27] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 16.1 billion yuan in Q4 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 23% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 59.4% [10][4] - The total sales volume for Q4 2024 was 91,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 52.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 96.8% [10][15] - The company is expected to deliver between 91,000 and 93,000 vehicles in Q1 2025, which would represent an annual increase of approximately 317% to 326.2% [15][4] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the gross margin was 14.4%, an increase of 8.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was -8.3% [2][13] - The automotive business gross margin was 10.0%, up 5.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to reduced vehicle costs [2][14] - The company forecasts revenues of 88.5 billion, 118.1 billion, and 130.3 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with expected net profits of -1.6 billion, 2.7 billion, and 4.7 billion yuan for the same years [4][5][27] Product Development - The 2025 models of the G6 and G9 were officially launched, featuring the Turing AI driving system [3][22] - The G6 is positioned as an all-around electric coupe SUV with a price range of 176,800 to 198,800 yuan, while the G9 is marketed as a flagship SUV priced between 248,800 and 278,800 yuan [22][25] Strategic Partnerships - The company entered a strategic partnership with Volkswagen Group (China) to develop a super-fast charging network, aiming to create the largest fast-charging network in China [18][21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The G7 model is expected to lead sales growth in Q2 2025, while brand enhancement will be crucial in H2 2025. The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with 2025 revenue revised down to 82.01 billion yuan from 95.56 billion yuan, and 2026 revenue increased to 127.24 billion yuan from 122.06 billion yuan. A new revenue forecast for 2027 is set at 141.85 billion yuan. The Non-GAAP net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to -1.94 billion yuan and 533 million yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 2.23 billion yuan. The adjusted EPS for 2025-2027 is projected at -1.0, 0.3, and 1.1 yuan, respectively, corresponding to a price-to-sales ratio of 2.0, 1.3, and 1.2 times [5][6]. Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 30.68 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 14.2%. The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 40.87 billion yuan, 82.01 billion yuan, 127.24 billion yuan, and 141.85 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding year-over-year growth rates of 33.2%, 100.7%, 55.2%, and 11.5%. The net profit for 2023 was -9.44 billion yuan, with projections of -5.55 billion yuan for 2024, -1.94 billion yuan for 2025, 533 million yuan for 2026, and 2.23 billion yuan for 2027. The gross margin is expected to be 14.5% in 2025, while the net margin is projected to improve to 1.6% by 2027 [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The G7 model is expected to lead sales growth in Q2 2025, while brand enhancement will be crucial in H2 2025 [5][6] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 have been adjusted down from 95.56 billion to 82.01 billion, while 2026 revenue is revised up from 122.06 billion to 127.24 billion, with a new forecast for 2027 at 141.85 billion [5] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for 2025-2026 have been improved, with 2025 projected at -1.94 billion and 2026 at 533 million, leading to adjusted EPS of -1.0 and 0.3 respectively [5] - The company is expected to maintain a double-digit automotive gross margin, driven by platformization and supply chain cost reductions [5] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - 2023A revenue was 30.68 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 14.2% - 2024A revenue is projected at 40.87 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 33.2% - 2025E revenue is expected to reach 82.01 billion, reflecting a significant year-over-year growth of 100.7% - The company is projected to achieve a gross margin of 14.5% in 2025, with a net profit margin of -2.4% [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 123.83 [6][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of RMB 40.9 billion and a net loss of RMB 5.8 billion in 2024, with a significant recovery projected in 2025, where revenue is anticipated to reach RMB 85.6 billion and a reduced net loss of RMB 2.0 billion [1][5]. - The company is optimistic about its new vehicle performance in 2025, with a strong new car cycle expected to drive sales growth and scale effects [1][14]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved record revenue of RMB 161 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 59% [2]. - The automotive gross margin improved to 10% in Q4 2024, marking six consecutive quarters of improvement [2]. - The company expects to deliver between 91,000 to 93,000 vehicles in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 317% to 326% [1][2]. Product Development - The company launched the updated G6 and G9 models, with significant pre-order numbers indicating strong market interest [3]. - Multiple new models are set to be released throughout 2025, including the G7 and MONA M03, which are expected to contribute to doubling annual sales [3]. Global Expansion - The company plans to accelerate its global expansion, targeting entry into 60 countries and regions by the end of 2025, with over 300 overseas sales outlets [4]. - The company is also exploring new growth avenues through flying cars and robotics, with plans for production in 2026 [4]. Valuation and Estimates - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at RMB 85.6 billion, RMB 97.7 billion, and RMB 124.7 billion respectively, with a focus on maintaining strong sales growth [5][11]. - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 123.83 based on improved operational performance and new product cycles [5][14].