格隆汇10月30日｜重庆啤酒(600132.SH)发布2025年第三季度报告，第三季度营收为42.20亿元，同比增 长0.41%；净利润为3.76亿元，同比下降12.71%。前三季度营收为130.59亿元，同比微降0.03%；净利润 为12.41亿元，同比下降6.83%。业绩下滑主要由于消费市场仍处于恢复阶段，市场竞争加剧，叠加原 料、包材、能源等成本波动影响，导致利润承压。 ...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs reports that Budweiser APAC (01876) showed strong revenue performance in the Asia-Pacific East region for Q3, with organic revenue growth of 3.9% and organic EBITDA growth of 8.7%, surpassing the bank's expectations of 1.1% and 7.0% respectively [1] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 8.9 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Budweiser APAC's organic sales decreased by 8.4%, better than Goldman Sachs' forecast of a 12.6% decline; standardized EBITDA was USD 438 million, with an organic decline of 6.9%, outperforming the expected USD 401 million (15.8% decline) [1] - The standardized EBITDA margin was reported at 28%, compared to the expected 26.9% [1] - Group-level organic EBIT fell by 6.1%, while standardized net profit was USD 204 million, a 9.3% year-on-year decline, better than the expected USD 182 million (19.1% decline) [1] - Q3 net profit was USD 185 million, down 8% year-on-year, primarily due to weak revenue [1] Group 2: Regional Performance - The Asia-Pacific West region's revenue declined by 12%, with organic EBITDA down 11.9%, outperforming Goldman Sachs' expectations of a 16.5% and 23% decline respectively [2] - In the Chinese market, organic revenue fell by 15.1% and organic EBITDA by 17.4%, better than the expected declines of 17.9% and 26% [2] - Average selling price decreased by 4.1%, with sales volume down 11.4%, although there was an expansion in household consumption, negatively impacted by brand mix due to destocking [2] - The Indian market achieved double-digit revenue growth and significant EBITDA margin expansion from a low base [2]

高盛指出，百威亚太亚太西区受印度市场强劲表现带动，中国市场表现优于忧虑。亚太西区收入同比跌 12%，EBITDA有机计算同比跌11.9%，优于该行预期的销售额同比跌16.5%及EBITDA同比跌23%。中 国市场收入有机计算同比跌15.1%，EBITDA有机计算同比跌17.4%，表现领先该行预期的同比跌17.9% 及26%;平均售价同比跌4.1%，销量同比跌11.4%，其中家庭内消费有所扩张，但不利的品牌组合因去库 存化所致。印度市场实现双位数收入增长，并在低基数上实现显著的EBITDA利润率扩张。 高盛表示，百威亚太2025年第三季度有机销售额同比下跌8.4%，优于高盛预期的同比跌12.6%;标准化 EBITDA为4.38亿美元，有机计算同比跌6.9%，优于该行预期的4.01亿美元(有机计算同比跌15.8%)，并 高于市场共识预期的4.07亿美元。报告的标准化EBITDA利润率为28%，对比该行预期为26.9%。集团层 面EBIT有机计算同比下跌6.1%，而标准化净利润为2.04亿美元，同比跌9.3%(计入外汇影响后)，优于该 行预期的1.82亿美元(同比跌19.1%)及市场共识预期的1.746亿美元。第三 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue decline of 1.34% to 1.875 billion yuan in Q3 2025, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 8.16% to 332 million yuan, indicating that revenue and profit fell short of market expectations [1][5] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue increase of 3.81% to 5.073 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 17.05% to 944 million yuan [1][5] - The company’s beer sales volume for the first three quarters was 1.2035 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, while the average price per ton was 4,215 yuan, up 2.0% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 alone, beer sales volume decreased by 2.9% to 469,400 tons, with the average price per ton at 3,995 yuan, reflecting a slower growth rate compared to the first half of the year [1] Financial Performance - The gross profit margin in Q3 2025 increased by 1.16 percentage points to 50.93%, and the net profit margin rose by 1.36 percentage points to 17.83%, benefiting from improved product mix and lower raw material costs [2] - The company maintained stable expense ratios across sales, management, R&D, and financial costs, with slight increases in each category [2] - The company is actively enhancing its mid-to-high-end product lines and expanding into markets outside its home province, indicating potential for future growth despite current challenges [2] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 0.43, 0.47, and 0.52 yuan respectively, reflecting a downward revision due to external environmental impacts [2]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of China International reports that Qingdao Beer Co., Ltd. (00168) experienced a revenue increase of 1.4% and a net profit increase of 5.7% year-on-year for the first three quarters, slightly below expectations [1] Financial Performance - For the third quarter, Qingdao Beer’s total revenue decreased by 0.2% year-on-year, with volume and price changes of 0.3% increase and 0.5% decrease respectively, attributed to ongoing price deflation pressures from factory to retail for essential consumer goods [1] - Sales of mid-to-high-end products increased by 6.8% year-on-year, showing an acceleration from the previous quarter's 4.8%, indicating an encouraging structural improvement [1] Investment Outlook - The target price for Qingdao Beer is maintained at HKD 58.8, corresponding to forecasted price-to-earnings ratios of 15.9 times and 15.3 times for 2025 and 2026 respectively [1] - The rating for Qingdao Beer is "Buy" [1]

Core Insights - Bank of China International reports that Qingdao Beer (600600) has seen a revenue and net profit increase of 1.4% and 5.7% year-on-year for the first three quarters, slightly below expectations [1] - In the third quarter alone, total revenue decreased by 0.2% year-on-year, with volume and price changes of 0.3% increase and 0.5% decrease respectively, due to ongoing price deflation pressures from factory to retail for essential consumer goods [1] - Sales of mid-to-high-end products increased by 6.8% year-on-year, showing an acceleration from the previous quarter's 4.8%, indicating a positive structural improvement [1] - The target price for Qingdao Beer is maintained at HKD 58.8, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.9 times and 15.3 times for the forecasts of 2025 and 2026 respectively [1] - The rating for Qingdao Beer remains "Buy" [1]

百威亚太(01876)公布2025年前9个月业绩，收入约46.91亿美元，同比减少6.6%;毛利24.12亿美元，同比 减少5.8%;百威亚太股权持有人应占溢利5.94亿美元，同比减少19.95%;百威亚太股权持有人应占正常化 溢利6.78亿美元，同比减少12.74%。 2025年前九个月的收入下降6.6%，而每百升收入增加0.4%。于2025年第三季度，收入下降8.4%，而每 百升收入增加0.1%，主要受亚太地区东部的收入管理措施和印度有利的产品组合所推动，但被中国的 表现所部分抵销。 总销量于2025年前九个月减少7.0%，于2025年第三季度减少8.6%，乃受到集团在中国的业务布局及渠 道的影响，但被印度的表现所部分抵销。 ...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs reported that Budweiser APAC's organic sales in Q3 declined by 8.4% year-on-year, which was better than the expected decline of 12.6% [1] - Standardized EBITDA was $438 million, with organic calculations showing a year-on-year decline of 6.9%, outperforming the expected $401 million (organic year-on-year decline of 15.8%) and market consensus of $407 million [1] Market Performance - In the Chinese market, organic revenue declined by 15.1%, and EBITDA on an organic basis fell by 17.4%, which was better than the expected declines of 17.9% and 26% respectively [1] - The Indian market achieved double-digit revenue growth and significant EBITDA margin expansion on a low base [1] - The South Korean market performed better than the overall market, with sales remaining stable and average selling prices increasing by mid-single digits year-on-year due to revenue management measures and continuous new product launches [1] Investment Rating - The company is rated as "Buy" by Goldman Sachs, with a target price set at HKD 8.9 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Budweiser APAC reported a decline in total revenue and profit for the first three quarters, indicating challenges in the Chinese market while showing strength in the Indian market [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first three quarters was $4.691 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6% [1] - Profit attributable to equity holders was $594 million, down 19.95% year-on-year [1] - Total sales volume decreased by 7.0% in the first nine months of 2025, with a decline of 8.6% in the third quarter [1] Regional Performance - The Asia Pacific West region benefited from strong performance in the Indian market, while the Chinese market showed better-than-expected results [1] - The Asia Pacific East region's third-quarter revenue performance was stronger than anticipated [1] Management Insights - The CEO and Co-Chairman noted that the Chinese business continues to face challenges due to weak business layout and ready-to-drink channel performance [1] - In South Korea, gross margin expansion was observed, with all channels outperforming industry levels [1] - The company aims to focus on strengthening its core product portfolio, expanding non-ready-to-drink marketing, and enhancing execution capabilities to seize future growth opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - Budweiser APAC reported a decline in total revenue and profit for the first three quarters, indicating challenges in the market, particularly in China, despite strong performance in India and some regions in Asia [1]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first three quarters was $4.691 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6% [1]. - Profit attributable to equity holders was $594 million, down 19.95% year-on-year [1]. - Total sales volume decreased by 7.0% in the first nine months of 2025, with a decline of 8.6% in the third quarter [1]. Regional Performance - The Asia Pacific West region benefited from strong performance in the Indian market, while the Chinese market showed better-than-expected results [1]. - The Asia Pacific East region's third-quarter revenue performance was stronger than anticipated [1]. Management Insights - The CEO and Co-Chairman noted that the business in China continues to face challenges due to weak performance in ready-to-drink channels and overall business layout [1]. - In South Korea, gross margin expansion was observed, with performance across various channels exceeding industry levels [1]. - The company aims to focus on strengthening its core product portfolio, expanding non-ready-to-drink marketing, and enhancing execution capabilities to seize future growth opportunities [1].