出品：新浪财经上市公司研究院 作者：郝显 12月19日，三元股份发布公告拟将北京三元德宏房地产开发有限公司（简称"三元德宏"）10%股权转让 给北京市南郊农场有限公司。 近几年，三元股份不断"瘦身"，剥离亏损业务，回归主业。今年前三季公司净利润大幅增长124.84%， 盈利能力有所提升。不过营业收入仍在下滑，经销商数量在2024年底的基础上减少31%，大本营北京市 场也大幅下滑。 在行业低谷期，三元股份能否通过瘦身转型实现增长？ 三元股份剥离房地产资产 根据公告，本次交易定价为2685.15万元，对于三元股份来说，交易完成后将实现房地产业务的剥离， 进一步聚焦主业。 三元德宏成立于2005年，由三元股份与控股股东北京首农食品集团有限公司旗下公司共同出资成立。本 次交易前，三元股份持有其10%股权，首农食品集团全资子公司南郊农场持有其90%股权。 三元德宏主要从事房地产代建业务，目前有5个在手项目，包含南郊农场棚户区改造项目、三海子郊野 公园项目等。 艾莱发喜是其中比较成功的一次并购，该公司主营业务为冰淇淋，拥有"八喜"品牌。2024年冰淇淋业务 为三元股份贡献了22%的收入。不过2024年艾莱发喜营业收入和净 ...

（原标题：中原地产：CVI结束5连跌企稳70点以上水平 料明年首季继续处于看好区） 6月初CVI进一步跌穿40点，近20周处于看淡区，反映楼市进入调整阶段。同期楼价持续向下调整，并 蒸发撤辣后的所有升幅。9月减息周期启动及10月施政报告后，CVI稳步上升，向上穿40点及50点两个 重要关口，同期楼价反复回稳。 进入2025年，1月份美国总统特朗普上台后，贸易战升温，美联储放缓减息步伐等因素影响，全球经济 及政治环境面临新挑战。1月底，CVI结束之前连续13周于50点好淡分界线上下反复徘徊的局面，2月间 单周急跌至40点左右好淡分界区间下限水平，同期楼价未能进一步向上突破，CCL持续在136点到137点 反复争持。 4月初贸易战升级，CVI再度回落至40点以下看淡区，5周在40点之下反复，楼价亦持续窄幅回落。5月 初拆息急跌，并持续低企，CVI曾连升8周，7月底至9月中更连续8周企稳60点以上，同期楼价靠稳微 升。 9月重启减息后，CVI连升7周，升穿并企稳80点水平，楼价稳步向升。最新CCL报145.01点，较今年5月 H按息再度低于封顶息当周的135.16点低位升7.29%，香港财案放宽印花税后升7.50% ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of rationality, professionalism, and courage in economic discussions, particularly in the context of the "Yi Cai Hao" platform and its annual recognition of outstanding thinkers in finance [1][2]. Group 1: Achievements and Impact - Over the past year, the "Qian V Plan" has produced over 700 in-depth articles and more than 1,500 videos, achieving over 60 million views [2]. - The "Da V Liu Shui Xi" live broadcast attracted 4.64 million viewers, while the previous year's "Annual Financial Thinker Ceremony" engaged 7.41 million participants, generating a total communication flow of 40 million [2]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - A survey of 180 economists and researchers indicates that over 60% expect China's GDP growth target for 2026 to be between 4.5% and 5.0%, reflecting a pragmatic balance between stability and progress [3]. - 88.2% of experts believe that significant advancements in 2026 will occur in "technological innovation and industrial upgrading," with a focus on artificial intelligence, robotics, and semiconductor localization as key strategic areas [3]. Group 3: Consumer Trends and Market Dynamics - Health and elderly care, along with cultural and experiential consumption, are viewed as the most promising new consumer engines, with approximately 70% agreement among experts [4]. - In the real estate sector, the focus has shifted from simple stimulus to urban renewal and improvement, indicating a transition from "housing for all" to "livable housing" [4]. Group 4: Global Economic Context - Experts anticipate that the Federal Reserve will gradually enter a rate-cutting phase in 2026, maintaining a neutral global liquidity environment, with the US dollar index expected to remain stable within a certain range [4]. - The article highlights the importance of understanding global variables to navigate domestic policy space and market fluctuations [4].

Core Viewpoint - The collapse of Jinyafu, a company once valued at over 70 billion yuan in financial products, has led to significant financial losses for investors, with the company's actual control person, Huang Shikun, cashing out 145 million HKD from the Hong Kong stock market amid the crisis [2][4][28]. Group 1: Company Overview - Jinyafu, founded by Huang Shikun, was once a prominent player in the gold industry, achieving 56.12 billion yuan in revenue and ranking 437th on the "2025 China Enterprise 500" list [3][4]. - The company expanded from a small processing factory to a comprehensive gold industry giant, covering the entire supply chain, including manufacturing, retail, and investment management [5][10]. Group 2: Investment Products and Practices - Jinyafu offered various financial products promising annual returns of 8% to 14%, often exceeding 10%, through complex contracts that misrepresented their financial capabilities [12][16]. - The company utilized a model where investors were led to believe they were purchasing physical gold while actually engaging in contracts that relinquished their rights to the physical assets [17][20]. Group 3: Financial Mismanagement and Risks - A significant portion of the funds raised (approximately 35%-40%) was diverted into long-term real estate projects, which faced delays and liquidity issues, creating a mismatch between short-term investor expectations and long-term project timelines [23][27]. - As the international gold price rose, operational cash flow tightened, leading to overdue financial products as early as June 2023, indicating severe liquidity issues within the company [27][28]. Group 4: Leadership and Exit Strategies - Huang Shikun, who had previously built a successful career in hedge funds, was noted for his strategic timing in entering the gold market but ultimately faced challenges as the company's financial practices unraveled [9][11]. - Amid the financial crisis, Huang's associated companies liquidated significant stock holdings, raising 145 million HKD, suggesting a strategy to secure personal financial stability while investors faced losses [28][29].

【博时市场点评12月25日】沪指继续上涨，军工板块活跃 北京市印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产相关政策的通知》，自2025年12月24日起施行。《通知》 明确，将非京籍家庭购买五环内商品住房的社保或个税缴纳年限，由现行的"3年"调减为"2年"；购买五 环外商品住房的，由现行的"2年"调减为"1年"；支持多子女家庭住房需求。二孩及以上的多子女家庭， 可在五环内多购买一套商品住房。 简评：北京此次出台的房地产新政，从需求端和供给端同时发力，力度超预期。非京籍购房社保或个税 年限缩短，多子女家庭购房套数增加，有助于释放刚性和改善性需求。土地立项方式调整为区级备案， 利于提升开发效率。整体来看，政策组合拳将有效提振市场信心，对北京房地产市场平稳健康发展起到 积极作用。 国家发展改革委、商务部两部门发布《鼓励外商投资产业目录（2025年版）》，自2026年2月1日起施 行。与2022年版相比，新版鼓励目录净增加205条、修改303条，引导更多外资投向先进制造业、现代服 务业、高新技术、节能环保等领域，以及中西部和东北地区。 简评：新版《鼓励外商投资产业目录》聚焦先进制造、现代服务及区域协调，制造业新增核酸药物、零 磁 ...

24日，北京市住建委网站发布通知，进一步优化调整本市房地产相关政策，全文如下： 北京市住房和城乡建设委员会 北京市发展和改革委员会 中国人民银行北京市分行 北京住房公积金管理中心关于进一步优化调整本市房地产相关政策的通 知 为促进房地产市场平稳健康发展，更好满足居民刚性住房需求和多样化改善性住房需求，现就进一步优化调整房地产相关政策通知如下： 本通知自2025年12月24日起施行，原有政策与本通知不一致的，以本通知为准。 一、非本市户籍居民家庭购买五环内商品住房的，缴纳社会保险或个人所得税的年限，调整为购房之日前连续缴纳满2年及以上；购买五环外商品住房 的，缴纳社会保险或个人所得税的年限，调整为购房之日前连续缴纳满1年及以上。 网站截图 来源：新华社 北京市住建委网站 二、对二孩及以上的多子女居民家庭（包括本市户籍和非本市户籍居民家庭），在执行现有住房限购政策基础上，可在五环内再多购买一套商品住房。 温馨提示 三、各银行业金融机构根据北京地区市场利率定价自律机制要求和本机构经营状况、客户风险状况等因素，在利率定价机制安排方面不再区分首套住房和 二套住房，合理确定每笔商业性个人住房贷款的具体利率水平。 四、借款 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market outlook for 2026 is optimistic, with expectations for more structural investment opportunities in A-shares, driven by a relatively loose liquidity environment [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends and Performance - Both A-shares and U.S. stocks exhibited significant structural market characteristics in 2025, with technology as a common leading sector. The ChiNext Index rose over 50%, and the Sci-Tech 50 increased by more than 36% [1]. - Since 2020, A-shares have shown clear "structural market" characteristics, with notable trends in sectors such as electric equipment, new energy, and consumer services [1][2]. Group 2: Key Investment Themes for 2026 - The four main investment themes for 2026 include: 1. Technology: Strong focus on AI chain industry upgrades and innovation [3]. 2. Manufacturing: Emphasis on emerging industries like humanoid robots, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, and solid-state batteries, which are prioritized by policy [3]. 3. Cyclical sectors: Benefiting from global supply-demand changes and policies aimed at reducing competition [3]. 4. Consumption: Positive policy signals are noted, but the effectiveness of implementation is crucial [3]. Group 3: Insights from Policy and Market Perspectives - The market can be analyzed from both policy and market perspectives, with key directions identified as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and reducing competition [2]. - Both domestic and foreign investors are optimistic about A-shares, with a notable improvement in foreign investment sentiment compared to the previous year [2].

Policy Insights - The GDP target for 2026 is expected to remain around 5%, with macro policies not being strong stimulus but rather supportive measures[5][9]. - Monetary policy is projected to see a 10 basis point rate cut and a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut, consistent with 2025[5][24]. - The fiscal deficit rate is anticipated to stay at 4%, with total debt slightly increasing, maintaining fiscal efforts similar to 2025[5][24]. Economic Outlook - Economic growth is expected to be stable, but structural differentiation may occur, with real housing demand declining due to slowed urbanization[5][36]. - Real estate sales are projected to decrease by 10% in 2026, continuing the downward trend from 2025[5][37]. - Manufacturing investment is likely to remain low, with a growth rate of 3-4% anticipated due to ongoing capacity surplus issues[5][47]. Price Trends - CPI is expected to rise slightly to around 0.5% in 2026, driven by reduced drag from pork and energy prices[5][79]. - Core CPI is projected to maintain resilience, supporting overall CPI growth, with a historical average around 0.8%[5][88]. Market Dynamics - The A-share market is expected to experience a slow bull market, driven by technology and cyclical sectors, with institutional funds poised to enter the market[5][5]. - The total balance of institutional funds is over 100 trillion yuan, with an estimated 1.5-5 trillion yuan ready to enter the equity market[5][5]. Risk Factors - Key risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and potential underperformance in infrastructure investment[5][5].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market is expected to rebound strongly in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high, while the market structure remains highly differentiated. The article discusses how to seize new opportunities in 2026 from four perspectives: future debate, allocation debate, current debate, and strategy debate [3]. Future Debate - China is unlikely to repeat Japan's lost decades due to its superior innovation capabilities and irreplaceability in the global market. The Chinese economy's rise has diminished Japan's industrial advantages, and the market has shifted from being viewed as "uninvestable" to having "strategic allocation value" [3][9][10]. - The historical context of Japan's economic stagnation post-1990s is contrasted with China's current trajectory, emphasizing that China's innovation in technology and manufacturing is advancing rapidly [7][8]. Allocation Debate - The influx of new capital into the stock market is driven by asset reallocation from residents and financial institutions in a low-interest-rate environment. The real estate market's downturn has transformed it from a source of capital diversion to a driver of stock market growth [4][12]. - High-net-worth individuals and insurance funds are leading this asset reallocation, which is characterized as rational and gradual rather than speculative [12][14]. Current Debate - The article raises concerns about whether AI capital expenditure expectations can be met, highlighting the potential for AI to be a significant technological revolution. However, the high profit margins in the industry may limit the overall economic growth associated with AI [5][19]. - The article discusses the challenges of achieving the necessary revenue growth to support the anticipated capital expenditures in the AI sector, suggesting that the required income increments are substantial compared to the current GDP [20][21]. Strategy Debate - The outlook for 2026 remains positive, but investors should temper their return expectations. The ongoing asset reallocation process is expected to sustain market resilience, with a focus on defensive strategies and identifying opportunities in technology and advanced manufacturing sectors [26][27]. - Specific sectors to watch include: - **Technology**: Continued investment in AI applications and companies that can leverage AI for efficiency [29]. - **Advanced Manufacturing**: Growth in sectors related to AI and robotics, with a focus on domestic cycles and equipment upgrades [30]. - **Consumer**: Identifying resilient companies in traditional sectors that can maintain performance despite broader economic challenges [31]. - **Military**: Anticipated recovery in the military sector as procurement cycles normalize [31]. - **Real Estate**: Looking for structural opportunities in real estate services and resilient developers amid ongoing market adjustments [31].

坊间传说的"陕西最豪高奢酒店业主"，又去敦煌签了一个高奢项目。 最新的报道显示，万豪与陕西万众控股集团签署敦煌丽思卡尔顿隐世酒店项目。 《酒管财经》注意到，这是隐世品牌在大中华区首个由民营企业作为业主的项目，也是该品牌落地大中华区的第二家酒店，还是万众集团走出陕西之外的 第一家高奢酒店项目。 万众集团，很多人可能会相对陌生。但是如果提到西安W酒店，估计很多业内外人士都曾体验过。包括西安正在筹建的四季酒店、华尔道夫酒店和文华东 方酒店项目，业主方均为万众集团。 社交平台上一直有句玩笑话，万众集团但凡打个喷嚏，整个西安的高奢酒店都得抖一抖。 那么，在高端酒店正值暴力出清期，万众集团缘何斥巨资布局高奢酒店业务？这两年，我国高奢酒店业主经历了哪些变化？投资布局的核心逻辑又有哪些 调整？ 第二家隐世酒店的业主是什么来头？ 作为丽思卡尔顿品牌中的极致奢华系列，丽思卡尔顿隐世酒店在大中华区的第二家酒店项目正式签约。 按照流露出的信息，该项目选址在敦煌。万豪国际集团大中华区首席发展官郁国刚表示，敦煌千年壁画与苍茫大漠，正是丽思卡尔顿隐世酒店所珍罕 的"心灵震源"。 敦煌丽思卡尔顿隐世酒店择址于鸣沙山•月牙泉景区东侧，毗邻鸣沙 ...