Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bullish**: Index (IH, IF, IC, IM), Rubber, Coking Coal, Coke, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Gold, Silver, Aluminum, Lithium Carbonate, Corn [5] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude Oil, Methanol, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Apple [5] Core Views - Geopolitical and policy factors are influencing the oil price, which shows a strong upward trend. The negotiation between Iran and the US on the nuclear issue is in progress, and the Fed's interest - rate stance affects market expectations. The global grain consumption in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase, and the domestic futures market has mixed performance [1]. - Precious metals are in a rebound phase. Although affected by short - term factors, long - term support factors remain. Silver's high volatility suggests investors to wait and see. Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical negotiations and supply changes in Kazakhstan. Copper prices may enter an adjustment phase due to supply and demand factors [2][3]. - In the financial market, the stock index is expected to continue the phased upward trend in February, but there are potential overseas risks during the Spring Festival. The bond market is affected by factors such as the Fed's policy and domestic economic data, and the bond price is expected to stabilize [10][11]. - In the energy and chemical market, the supply and demand of various products such as crude oil, methanol, and rubber are affected by different factors, and their prices show different trends. In the metal market, precious metals, copper, zinc, aluminum, and lithium carbonate have different price trends and influencing factors. In the black market, the supply and demand of steel, iron ore, and coking coal are affected by the approaching Spring Festival and other factors. In the agricultural product market, the prices of protein meal, oil, sugar, cotton, and pork are affected by factors such as production, demand, and policies. In the shipping market, the container shipping European line is expected to be volatile before the Spring Festival and will face verification after the festival [13][19][25][28][33]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Main News Focus International News - Elon Musk said that SpaceX has shifted its focus to building a "self - developing" city on the moon, which is expected to be achieved in less than 10 years. The plan to build a city on Mars will start in 5 - 7 years and is expected to take more than 20 years [6]. Domestic News - On the morning of February 9, President Xi Jinping inspected the National Information Technology Application Innovation Park in Beijing, emphasizing the importance of scientific and technological self - reliance in building a modern socialist country [7]. Industry News - Seven departments including the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security conducted administrative guidance on 16 platform companies to protect the rights and interests of new - form workers [8]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and FTSE China A50 futures all rose. The US dollar index fell. ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, London silver, LME aluminum, LME copper, and LME nickel all rose, while LME zinc fell. CBOT soybeans, CBOT wheat, and CBOT corn fell, while CBOT soybean oil rose [9]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The US stock market rose, and the domestic stock index rebounded. In February, the market is expected to continue the upward trend, but there are potential overseas risks during the Spring Festival [10]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bonds rose slightly. The central bank's open - market operations keep the money market loose. The Fed's policy and domestic economic data affect the bond market, and it is recommended to operate cautiously before the Spring Festival [11][12]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The sc night - session price rose. The negotiation between Iran and the US is in progress, and Kazakhstan's oil export may decline [13]. - **Methanol**: The methanol night - session price fell. The domestic coal - to - olefin device's operating rate increased, and the methanol inventory in coastal areas decreased slightly [14]. - **Natural Rubber**: The natural rubber price rebounded. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand supports the stable operation of all - steel tires. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the Spring Festival [15]. - **Polyolefin**: Polyolefin futures fell slightly. The market focuses on supply improvement and macro - factors [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures rebounded slightly, and soda ash futures mainly fell. The supply and demand of glass and soda ash are gradually being repaired, and the market focuses on the real - estate and photovoltaic industries [17]. Metal - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals continued to rebound. Although affected by short - term factors, long - term support factors remain. It is recommended to wait and see for silver [19]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the copper price may enter an adjustment phase [20]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price fell at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee decreased, and the zinc price may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals [21]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price rose at night. The domestic aluminum price is high, but the downstream demand is weak before the Spring Festival. However, long - term factors support the price [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production and demand of lithium carbonate decreased, and the inventory decreased. The market sentiment is weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to trading opportunities after the volatility decreases [23][24]. Black - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke were weak at night. The demand for coking coal and coke is limited, but the downstream's pre - festival replenishment provides support [25]. - **Steel**: The steel supply decreased slightly, and the demand weakened. The inventory increased, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate weakly [26]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore shipping and arrival increased, and the port inventory increased. The steel mill's replenishment is coming to an end, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [27]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fell at night. The Brazilian soybean harvest is in progress, and the domestic supply is expected to be sufficient, which may put pressure on the price [28]. - **Oil**: The oil prices were weak at night. The Malaysian palm oil production decreased, and the inventory is expected to decline, but the crude oil price affects the palm oil price. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [29]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar price was slightly stronger at night. The global sugar supply is in an over - supply situation, and the domestic sugar supply is increasing seasonally. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [30]. - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton price fluctuated within a range. The textile factory's replenishment is coming to an end, and the cotton price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the direct subsidy policy [31]. - **Pork**: The pork price fell. The supply pressure increased, and the demand could not fully digest it. The pig price is expected to be weakly stable [32]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping European Line**: The EC price fell. The spot freight rate is relatively stable before the Spring Festival, and it is expected to be volatile. After the Spring Festival, it will face the verification of the photovoltaic export rush and the implementation of the price increase letter [33][34].

2月9日，全球大宗商品市场多个品类迎来上行行情，国际油价回升，现货金价重返5000美元/盎司上 方，工业金属价格同步走高。 国际油价方面，受美国建议悬挂其国旗的船只在霍尔木兹海峡航行时远离伊朗水域影响，此前美伊核谈 判期间下降的风险溢价重新回升，推动油价上涨。3月交割的布伦特原油期货上涨0.99美元，收于每桶 69.04美元；3月交割的西得州中质原油期货价格上涨0.81美元，收于每桶64.36美元。 受大宗商品价格上行带动，当日A股及港股贵金属个股同步走高，老铺黄金涨超6.35%、紫金矿业涨超 5%，有色金属股也跟随上涨。面对金价高位震荡，多家国有大行及股份制银行通过上调黄金业务准入 门槛、升级风险测评等级等方式，引导普通投资者理性参与黄金投资。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 现货黄金市场在经历1月末的闪崩后再度走强，2月9日现货黄金日内最高触及5072.257美元/盎司，重回 5000美元/盎司关键关口。纽约尾盘，现货黄金涨2.01%报5064.10美元/盎司，COMEX黄金期货涨2.04% 报5081.50美元/盎司。支撑金价上 ...

由于美国对古巴实施石油封锁，古巴当局表示航空燃油即将耗尽。目前，加拿大航空公司已取消所有飞 往古巴的航班。 据参考消息报道，古巴领导层2月8日表示，古巴将从9日开始没有航空燃油可用。这可能会扰乱在当地 运营的航司的正常业务。此次航空燃油的短缺局面预计将持续一个月，届时古巴所有国际机场均会受到 影响。 据新华社报道，墨西哥总统辛鲍姆9日表示，墨西哥将继续向古巴提供人道主义支持，并呼吁停止对古 巴实施影响民生的制裁。墨西哥外交部8日发布公告说，墨政府当天派出两艘海军舰船，向古巴运送人 道主义援助物资。 当前，古巴与美国关系紧张加剧。美国总统特朗普1月29日签署行政令，威胁对向古巴提供石油国家的 输美商品加征从价关税。 一对在古巴南部旅游城市特立尼达度假的英国夫妇对这种情况感到愤怒。"古巴是最美的地方。我绝对 爱这里，希望古巴人民的韧性再次战胜美国的经济恐怖主义，我总有一天会带着孩子回来。"这对夫妇 告诉《卫报》。 当地时间9日，加拿大航空公司表示由于燃油短缺，将暂停飞往古巴的航班，并在未来几天派出空机接 回约3000名旅客。 《卫报》9日报道称，目前古巴全国的加油站纷纷关闭，道路上的车辆数量锐减，居民则被告知需要 ...

Core Viewpoint - Geopolitical uncertainties between the US and Iran continue to influence oil prices, with a recent increase in oil price levels observed, particularly on February 10, where the SC2604 contract saw a rise of over 1% [3][6]. Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical situation is identified as a core factor affecting short-term fluctuations in oil prices. The US has issued new guidelines for ships flying the American flag to avoid Iranian territorial waters and to refuse boarding by Iranian military forces [4][7]. - The OPEC oil production in January decreased to 28.34 million barrels per day, a reduction of 60,000 barrels per day from December, with Nigeria experiencing the largest decline. This decrease offsets production increases from some member countries, including Venezuela [4][7]. EU Sanctions - The European Union has proposed expanding sanctions against Russia to include ports in Georgia and Indonesia that handle Russian oil, marking the first time sanctions target third-country ports. The proposal includes listing the Kulevi port in Georgia and the Karimun port in Indonesia, prohibiting EU companies and individuals from trading with these ports [4][7]. Market Implications - The combination of fluctuating geopolitical factors and EU sanctions creates ongoing uncertainty in the supply chain, suggesting that oil prices are likely to experience continued volatility in the short term [4][7].

Core Insights - The financial support from oil and gas exports for Russia is diminishing as the conflict in Ukraine approaches its fourth anniversary, leading to a significant drop in cash flow to levels not seen in years [1] - New punitive measures from the US and EU, along with pressure on India to reduce Russian oil imports, are contributing to this decline [1][2] - The Russian government is resorting to borrowing and increasing taxes to maintain fiscal stability, which exacerbates the pressures of a wartime economy facing slow growth and stubborn inflation [1][5] Group 1: Economic Impact - In January, tax revenue from the oil and gas sector fell to 393 billion rubles ($5.1 billion), down from 587 billion rubles ($7.6 billion) in December and 1.12 trillion rubles ($14.5 billion) in January 2025, marking the lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic [1] - Economic growth in Russia has stagnated, with GDP growth of only 0.1% in Q3 last year and forecasts for this year ranging from 0.6% to 0.9%, significantly lower than the over 4% growth expected in 2023 and 2024 [5] - The Kremlin has increased the value-added tax from 20% to 22% and raised taxes on car imports, cigarettes, and alcohol to fill the gap left by declining oil and gas revenues [5] Group 2: Sanctions and Market Dynamics - The US government has imposed sanctions on Russia's largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, which pose significant risks for any entities purchasing or transporting their oil [2] - The EU has banned the use of Russian crude oil for fuel since January 21, further restricting Russia's ability to refine and export oil to Europe [2] - Buyers are demanding larger discounts on Russian oil to mitigate risks associated with US sanctions, with discounts expanding to approximately $25 per barrel in December [4] Group 3: Geopolitical Developments - The US has pressured India to halt imports of Russian oil, resulting in a decrease in Russian oil shipments to India from 2 million barrels per day in October to 1.3 million barrels per day in December [3] - The number of sanctioned shadow tankers has increased to 640, as allies of Ukraine target individual vessels to prevent the purchase of Russian oil [3] - The Kremlin is closely monitoring India's strategic decisions regarding energy diversification, indicating the importance of maintaining strong ties with New Delhi [3]

Core Viewpoint - The sudden halt of Indian purchases of Russian Ural crude oil, prompted by a US-India agreement, has left 12 supertankers stranded in the sea with over 12 million barrels of oil, creating a significant disruption in the global energy market [1][4][5]. Group 1: Impact on Indian Oil Imports - Prior to the Ukraine conflict, Russian oil accounted for only 0.2% of India's imports, but surged to 35-40% by mid-2024 due to discounted prices [4]. - By January 2026, India's daily imports from Russia had dropped to 1.2 million barrels, and the new agreement effectively halted all imports [5]. - Indian refiners are now in a dilemma, facing political pressure from the US while needing to meet domestic fuel demands [5]. Group 2: Consequences for Russia - Russia's oil revenues are projected to fall by 34% in 2024, with January 2026 revenues hitting the lowest since summer 2020, necessitating deeper discounts to attract new buyers [6]. - Following the announcement of the US-India agreement, the discount for Ural crude compared to Brent crude widened to about $10 per barrel, making it cheaper than Iranian oil [6]. Group 3: China's Role in the Market - China has increased its imports of Ural crude to 500,000 barrels per day as of January 2026, but this is significantly lower than India's peak of over 2 million barrels per day [7][9]. - Chinese refineries prefer lighter, low-sulfur crude from Russia's Pacific ports, which are more economically viable to process compared to the heavier Ural crude [9]. Group 4: Broader Market Dynamics - Other Asian countries, like Indonesia, have limited demand for Ural crude, making it difficult for Russia to find alternative buyers [10]. - The global oil market is currently oversupplied, with high US shale oil production and mixed OPEC responses to production cuts, leading to a challenging environment for selling discounted oil [10]. Group 5: India's Energy Strategy - India relies on imports for 89% of its oil consumption, and the cessation of Russian oil could lead to increased energy costs [11]. - In the first four months of 2026, India's imports from the US rose to 6.31 million tons, but logistical challenges and compatibility issues with Indian refineries limit the potential to fully replace Russian oil [11].

作为全球第三大能源消费国，印度的原油需求几乎全部依赖进口。在2025年前，每日需进口170万桶俄 罗斯石油，这个庞大的数字让印度在面对美国压力时显得尤为尴尬。一旦选择停止进口，势必导致巨额 的经济损失和内需缺口，这对于正在快速发展的印度经济而言，代价实在太大。 美国对俄油的强硬政策，如加征关税等手段，旨在迫使印度割舍与俄罗斯的油气联系，但显然没能如 愿。特朗普之前就曾表示，摩迪会遵守其承诺，然而从印度近期行动来看，似乎双方在这一点上没有达 成真正一致。美国虽然试图通过经济手段来改为"美油"，但对于印度来说，真正确保能源供应的是真实 可行性而非口头承诺。 近日，美印两国官方发布了一项贸易协议框架，宣布通过降低关税来促进双边贸易。美国总统特朗普对 此表示满意，认为这是双方达成的重要共识，尤其是印度承诺将停止进口俄罗斯石油。然而，令人费解 的是，在官方声明中却对"俄罗斯石油"这一话题只字未提！从表面上看，这个贸易协议无疑是个双赢的 结果，但其背后的隐情不容忽视。 为什么双方都对俄油避而不谈呢？一方面，美国急于通过降低关税来拉拢印度，以便在地缘政治中增强 自身影响力；而印度由于与俄罗斯的深厚战略合作关系，也不愿轻易放 ...

原油日报 | 2026-02-10 印度俄油采购不会归零 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所3月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨81美分，收于每桶64.36美元，涨幅为1.27%；4月交货的伦敦 布伦特原油期货价格上涨99美分，收于每桶69.04美元，涨幅为1.45%。SC原油主力合约收涨2.13%，报471元/桶。 （来源：Bloomberg） 2、 2月10日，墨西哥停止向古巴运送所有石油的决定，给这个燃料匮乏的国家带来了沉重打击，该岛国录得了十 年来首个无石油进口的月份。墨西哥总统辛鲍姆周一证实，鉴于特朗普威胁要对任何向古巴出售或提供石油的国 家征收关税，石油出货已"暂停"。由于古巴不公开相关信息，目前很难估算机动车燃料供应还能维持多久。在2024 年的一次罕见表态中，一名政府官员曾表示，这个拥有约1000万人口的岛国每天的汽油需求量约为8200桶，但在 制裁和封锁下，这一需求仅能勉强得到满足。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 2月9日，委内瑞拉国家石油公司已撤销其在主要产油区奥里诺科带大部分油田及合资项目的减产指令，推动 该国总产量接近每日100万桶。熟悉运营情况的消息人士称，上周末多个项目增产后， ...

印度突然服软，放弃购买俄罗斯石油，究竟为何如此迅速转变态度？普京失去了一个重要客户，俄乌战争的财政缺口将如何弥补？接下来，俄罗斯还能依赖 中国吗？ 换句话说，特朗普对印度加征的石油关税，表面上看是对印度实施制裁，实则加剧了欧洲的能源危机。这对于俄罗斯来说无疑是一个坏消息。印度是俄罗斯 石油的重要客户，俄罗斯石油海运出口的53%都依赖印度，日均出口约170万桶，占据俄罗斯石油出口产能的38%。这部分石油收入在一定程度上弥补了俄 罗斯因特别军事行动造成的财政缺口。然而，随着印度与美国达成协议，俄罗斯失去了这一重要客户，其能源收入将大幅缩水。市场经济的规律决定了，如 果石油出现大规模积压，价格将不可避免地下跌，尤其是美国的页岩油和委内瑞拉的劣质石油大规模进入市场，若美国继续对欧佩克施压，石油价格跳水几 乎是不可避免的，俄罗斯的财政收入也将大幅减少。 2015年，俄罗斯通过石油和天然气的出口收入达到7.1万亿卢布，占财政收入的19.1%。这笔收入不仅 能够支撑国家的日常运转，还能覆盖特别军事行动开支的60%。如今，印度选择放弃购买俄罗斯石油，无疑是在俄罗斯的能源出口领域狠狠地打了一记重 拳。这也意味着，特朗普通过这种 ...

分区域来看，吉林、青海、陕西、山东、江西汽油批发价格上涨，甘肃、安徽、上海、广东、福建、天 津、河北、河南、湖北、广西汽油批发价格下跌；黑龙江、吉林柴油批发价格上涨，甘肃、广西、青 海、河北、湖北、重庆、福建、四川、广东、辽宁柴油批发价格下跌。山东地炼方面，汽油价格小幅上 涨，柴油价格下跌。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京2月10日电中国汽、柴油批发价格显示，2月9日，中国汽、柴油批发价格均下跌。全国92# 汽油平均批发价格为7421元／吨，较2月6日下跌6元／吨；柴油（含低凝点）平均批发价格为6073元／ 吨，较2月6日下跌15元／吨。 中国汽、柴油批发价格由中国经济信息社-中国石油经济技术研究院"能源大数据实验室"联合上海石油 天然气交易中心发布，基于对全国范围内主要经营单位和社会经营单位（不含炼厂）的批发价格数据采 集并计算形成，是反映中国汽、柴油批发市场整体情况的权威产品。 从市场整体情况来看，2月6日国际原油期货价格上涨，一揽子原油平均价格变化率在正向区间波动。随 着春节假期临近，下游终端用油单位成品油消耗逐步减少，市场购销氛围趋于清淡。 ...