【导读】 港股高开低走，钢铁板块午后拉升，黄金股、博彩股和光伏股走强，芯片股、军工 股下挫 见习记者 储是 7月2日为港股下半年第一个交易日。 今日，港股高开低走，窄幅震荡。截至收盘，恒生指数上涨0.62%，报收于24221.41点；恒 生科技指数下跌0.64%，报收于5269.11点；国企指数上涨0.54%，报收于8724.9点。 盘面上，大型科网股普遍走高，钢铁板块午后猛拉，黄金股、博彩股和光伏股走强，芯片 股、军工股下挫。 大型科技股多数走高 此外，弘业期货H股跌超13%，A股跌停两连板，累计下跌超19%。 黄金股、博彩股和光伏股走强 今日，山东黄金涨超5%，潼关黄金、紫金矿业、招金矿业、中国黄金国际等纷纷上涨。 涨跌不一 京东集团涨0.08%，小米集团涨0.33%，美团涨0.56%；阿里巴巴跌0.36%，腾讯控股跌 0.3%，网易跌1.33%，快手跌2.76%，哔哩哔哩跌2.21%。 钢铁板块午后拉升 重庆钢铁股份盘中突破130% 午后，港股钢铁板块持续拉升。重庆钢铁股份盘中涨幅一度扩大至135.56%。截至收盘，涨 幅回落至91.11%，报1.72港元/股。该公司A股也于午后快速拉升并封住涨停。此外 ...

Macro Dynamics - The National Development and Reform Commission announced an increase in domestic gasoline and diesel prices by 235 yuan and 225 yuan per ton, respectively, effective from July 1, 2025 [1] Financial Institutions - Guorong Fund announced the resignation of its Deputy General Manager and Financial Officer, Chen Yijie, which was approved by the board of directors [5] - CITIC Construction Investment Fund reported that the newly established CSI A500 Index Enhanced Fund raised 236 million yuan, with a total of 120 CSI A500 Index funds in the market, accumulating over 216 billion yuan in total [6] Market Data - On July 1, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.39%, with innovative drug concept stocks gaining momentum, and the banking sector rebounding [7] - As of June 30, the financing balance on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 925.419 billion yuan, an increase of 3.812 billion yuan from the previous trading day, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's financing balance was 906.916 billion yuan, up by 6.837 billion yuan [8] Company Dynamics - Great Wall Military Industry announced that its stock has experienced significant volatility, with a risk of a sharp decline due to irrational speculation [9] - XPeng Motors delivered 34,611 new vehicles in June 2025, marking a 224% year-on-year increase, and achieved a record high of 103,181 deliveries in the second quarter [10] - Li Auto plans to launch the Li i8, a six-seat pure electric SUV, in July, and the Li i6, a five-seat pure electric SUV, in September, expanding its product lineup [11] - The domestic leading photovoltaic glass companies plan to collectively reduce production by 30% starting in July, which is expected to promote sustainable industry development [12] - Changchun High-tech announced plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [13] - Estun announced the release of the second-generation humanoid robot Codroid 02 by its affiliated company, showcasing advancements in embodied intelligence [14]

Market Overview - Tesla's stock price experienced a significant drop on July 1, with a decline of 5.79% in after-hours trading, closing at $299.27 [1] - The A-share market showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.39% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.11%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.24% [6] Stock Performance - A total of 2,629 stocks rose, with 74 hitting the daily limit up, while 2,545 stocks declined [7] - The total trading volume reached 1,496.54 billion, with 115,266.4 million shares traded [8] Sector Highlights - Innovative drug concept stocks surged, with companies like Angli康 and塞力医疗 hitting the daily limit up, following the release of supportive measures from the National Healthcare Security Administration [8] - The semiconductor equipment sector continued its strong performance, with multiple stocks reaching the daily limit up [10] Banking Sector - Bank stocks rebounded, with major banks like China Construction Bank and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank reaching historical highs [11] Military Industry - The military sector saw localized activity, with stocks like长城军工 hitting the daily limit up [12] Cryptocurrency Sector - Stablecoin-related stocks declined, with吉大正元 hitting the daily limit down [12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S.-China trade negotiations have highlighted China's export control on the rare earth element samarium, which is crucial for advanced military technologies, raising concerns in the global defense industry [1][3]. Group 1: Supply Chain and Dependency - China accounts for approximately 87% of the global supply of samarium, with Lockheed Martin indicating that each F-35 fighter jet requires 1.2 kg of samarium-cobalt permanent magnets, essential for radar and missile guidance systems [1]. - New export license regulations from China have led to a situation where U.S. military-grade samarium-cobalt permanent magnet inventories can only sustain production needs for about six months, indicating a potential supply chain crisis [1]. - Despite efforts to rebuild the rare earth supply chain through the Inflation Reduction Act, the cost of producing military-grade samarium in California is 3.2 times higher than that of similar products from China [3]. Group 2: Technological Advancements and Challenges - The Baotou Rare Earth Research Institute in China has made breakthroughs in samarium-iron-nitride magnet technology, increasing energy density by 40% compared to traditional samarium-cobalt materials, complicating U.S. efforts to find technological alternatives [3]. - A significant 83% of rare earth material suppliers in the existing military certification system are still from China, creating a challenging dependency for U.S. defense contractors [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Impact - From January to August 2024, China's rare earth exports to the U.S. decreased by 29%, while the export price increased by 18%, indicating a strategic control over the U.S. military-industrial complex [5]. - General Dynamics in Texas has postponed the mass production of the "Abrams X" tank due to a shortage of samarium materials, which has affected the turret gyroscope standards [5]. - The limited supply strategy employed by China poses a more significant threat to U.S. military production capabilities than a complete embargo [5]. Group 4: Geopolitical Implications - The competition over rare earth elements reflects a broader restructuring of power within global supply chains, as China leverages its technological patents and resource reserves to create new trade barriers [7]. - The ongoing silent struggle between the U.S. and China over rare earth elements is expected to profoundly influence the balance of military technology over the next decade [7].

Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. The military industry sector saw significant growth, with over 20 stocks including Changcheng Military and Hunan Tianyan hitting the daily limit. The stablecoin concept also surged, with stocks like Hopu Co. and Xiexin Energy reaching their limits. Brain-computer interface stocks rose, with Xiangyu Medical and Innovation Medical hitting the limit. Overall, more than 4,000 stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen markets were in the green, with a total transaction volume of 1.51 trillion [1]. Hot Topics Military Industry - The military sector continued its upward trend, with stocks like Changcheng Military, Feiyada, and Zhongguang Defense hitting consecutive limits. Hunan Tianyan and Beifang Navigation also saw significant rebounds [4]. RWA (Real World Assets) - The RWA sector experienced substantial gains, with stocks like Hopu Co. and Hangzhou Garden hitting their limits. The market is witnessing a rapid growth of RWA ecosystem participants, including issuers, custodial banks, and investors, which may present investment opportunities in asset operation, banking IT, and cross-border payments [6][8]. Brain Science - The brain science sector saw significant increases, with stocks like Rongtai Health and Innovation Medical hitting their limits. Recent developments from Neuralink, including clinical trials for brain-computer interfaces, have generated excitement in the market. The brain-computer interface market in China is projected to reach 3.2 billion by 2024 and exceed 5.5 billion by 2027, with global applications expected to reach between 40 billion to 145 billion by 2030-2040 [9][10][11].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant rebound on June 30, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.59%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.83%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.35% [2] - A total of 4,056 companies saw their stock prices increase, while 1,127 companies declined, with 92 stocks hitting the daily limit up [3][4] - In the first half of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.76%, and the North Star 50 Index surged by 39.45%, reaching a historical high [3] Sector Performance - The military industry sector saw a notable surge, with stocks like Great Wall Military Industry and North Navigation hitting the daily limit up. This was influenced by the upcoming grand military parade on September 3, showcasing domestically produced main battle equipment [5] - The brain-computer interface sector also experienced a rise, with stocks such as Xiangyu Medical and Innovation Medical reaching the daily limit up. This was driven by Neuralink's recent developments and future plans for human-machine integration [7][8] Gaming Industry - The gaming sector saw a significant increase following the announcement of 147 domestic game approvals and 11 imported game approvals by the National Press and Publication Administration, marking a record high for monthly approvals in recent years. Major companies like Tencent and NetEase received approvals [9] - Citic Securities expressed optimism about the gaming sector, highlighting that the core companies' valuations are significantly lower than those in the new consumption sector, suggesting potential growth [9] Trade Developments - Positive trade news emerged as Canada lifted its digital services tax on tech companies, aiming to restart negotiations with the U.S. [9] - India's trade team extended its stay in Washington to resolve differences, with hopes of reaching a temporary agreement before the July 9 deadline [10]

特朗普的支持率雪崩式下滑，本质上是他亲手埋下的"关税地雷"炸了锅。自今年2月推行"对等关税"以来，美国民众切实感受 到了生活成本飙升的切肤之痛。 彭博社民调显示，超过半数受访者认为关税直接影响了财务状况，69%的人预计日常用品价格将持续上涨。这种情绪在独立 选民中尤为强烈，昆尼皮亚克大学的调查显示，58%的独立选民不认可特朗普的经济政策，较三个月前激增17个百分点。 更致命的是，特朗普引以为傲的"经济成绩单"正在反噬他。尽管白宫反复强调就业数据向好，但一季度GDP萎缩0.3%的冰冷 现实，彻底撕下了"经济繁荣"的伪装。 消费者支出增速从去年四季度的4%骤降至1.8%，企业投资也因关税不确定性大幅缩水。这种"杀敌一千自损八百"的政策，让 美国民众对特朗普的信任彻底透支。正如《经济学人》的尖锐评论："他承诺带来黄金时代，却让所有该涨的都跌了。" 在刚刚过去的几天时间里，特朗普政府上上下下都紧张得不行，重重压力朝他们袭来。而偏偏在此时，来自日本共同社的最 新消息称：中国政府有邀请特朗普参加"九三阅兵"的打算。这到底是怎么回事？ 国际孤立：盟友逼宫与关税困局 特朗普的关税大棒不仅打疼了美国百姓，更把盟友们逼到了墙角。 ...

Group 1: Core Investment Opportunities - The technology sector is expected to experience significant growth in the second half of the year, particularly in the military and solid-state battery industries, which are seen as key investment hotspots [1] - The military sector is a national priority, with increased focus on asset securitization and strategic upgrades, especially in light of the upcoming 80th anniversary of the Anti-Japanese War parade, which will showcase advanced military equipment [3] - The solid-state battery industry is entering a golden development period, driven by its advantages such as high energy density and safety, making it a core power source for electric vehicles and energy storage [4] Group 2: Key Companies in Military and Solid-State Battery Sectors - Zhongke Electric has made significant technological breakthroughs in solid-state batteries and has military applications, showcasing strong market competitiveness [5] - Greeenmei has achieved major advancements in solid-state battery materials and has established long-term supply agreements with leading companies, while also expanding into military applications [6] - Youyan New Materials is the only domestic producer of high-purity lithium sulfide and has developed technologies that enhance battery life, with military certifications for its products [6] - A certain holding subsidiary is noted for its comprehensive technology layout in solid-state battery materials and has a strong market position, indicating potential for future growth in both military and civilian sectors [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. imposed tariffs of up to 104% on Chinese goods, followed by a "forgiveness list" that included rare earths and semiconductors, maintaining a lower tax rate of 20% on these items, indicating a contradictory stance [4] - The U.S. Department of Commerce quietly issued rare earth import licenses to 28 American companies after announcing the tariffs, reflecting a contradictory approach [5] - The U.S. military is facing challenges due to a shortage of critical materials like samarium-cobalt magnets, which are predominantly sourced from China, impacting the production of F-35 fighter jets and B-21 bombers [7][11] Group 2 - China's rare earth export restrictions are a strategic move that significantly impacts U.S. military capabilities, as 87% of U.S. weapon systems rely on Chinese rare earth materials [11][12] - The F-47 sixth-generation fighter jet project in the U.S. is experiencing delays due to insufficient rare earth supplies, raising concerns within the U.S. Air Force [12] - The global supply chain is affected, with countries like Vietnam and Brazil benefiting from U.S. tariffs on Chinese shipping, as businesses reroute to avoid high fees [21] Group 3 - The U.S. automotive industry is suffering from production halts due to rare earth shortages, with General Motors halting electric pickup production and the automotive manufacturers' association issuing ultimatums [21] - The global economy is in turmoil as China controls 93% of rare earth processing capacity, threatening industries like electric vehicles and wind power with potential supply disruptions [23] - The U.S. attempts to diversify its rare earth supply through allies have proven ineffective, as many countries still rely on China for processing [25][27]

Group 1 - The EU is seeking to resolve rare earth supply issues before the upcoming visit of EU leaders to China, highlighting the urgency of the situation [2] - China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi proposed three suggestions for the development of China-EU relations, emphasizing mutual respect, partnership, and multilateralism [2] - The EU's concerns about rare earth supply shortages stem from China's dominance in the market, controlling over 90% of global rare earth refining capacity, which is critical for various European industries [4][9] Group 2 - The EU's demands regarding rare earth supplies reveal a logical inconsistency, as China's export controls are primarily a response to U.S. tariffs and not aimed at specific countries [6] - The EU's dual standards in economic governance are evident, as it calls for stable global supply chains while simultaneously imposing barriers on Chinese enterprises [9] - China's strategy includes a systematic approach to enhance its rare earth capabilities, including establishing research institutions and combating smuggling, which contrasts with the EU's reactive measures [12][14] Group 3 - The EU's strategic behavior reflects its difficulties in navigating the global supply chain restructuring, as China employs a combination of technology and resource control to reshape the rules of the game [15] - The potential visit of EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to China is contingent on the EU's ability to address its own issues and avoid politicizing economic discussions [14][15] - The long-term dependency of Europe on Chinese rare earths is underscored by the challenges in developing local resources, which could take at least a decade to become viable [14]