Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, urea is expected to fluctuate strongly. Although domestic demand is limited, new export quotas have been issued, increasing the influence of the international market on the domestic market. Some downstream enterprises are replenishing at low prices, and the receipt situation of urea enterprises has improved significantly. - In the medium term, urea is expected to be weak. The influence of the fourth - batch export quota will fade, overall demand will be weak, downstream acceptance will decrease as the ex - factory price rises, and the fundamentals of urea remain loose [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - Futures market: Urea futures fluctuated widely and closed at 1665 (0/0%). - Spot market: The ex - factory price increased slightly, and the transaction was average. The ex - factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1570 - 1580 yuan/ton, Shandong small particles 1600 - 1610 yuan/ton, Hebei small particles 1610 - 1620 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small particles 1540 - 1560 yuan/ton, Anhui small particles 1580 - 1590 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1460 - 1500 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - In the 46th week of 2025 (20251113 - 1119), the capacity utilization rates of coal - based and gas - based urea in China decreased. The coal - based urea capacity utilization rate was 87.23%, a 0.30% decrease from the previous week, and the gas - based urea capacity utilization rate was 72.55%, a 0.21% decrease from the previous week. This was due to the shutdown of 3 coal - based enterprises' devices and the resumption of 1 coal - based enterprise's shutdown device [4]. Logical Analysis - Supply: Maintenance devices are gradually returning, and the daily output has increased to around 20.4 tons. The inventory of urea production enterprises has decreased by 46,000 tons to around 1.43 million tons, but it is still at a high level. - Demand: The fourth - batch export quota has been issued, increasing the influence of international prices on the domestic market. The compound fertilizer production in central and northern China has basically ended, the grassroots procurement is coming to an end, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has declined, and the demand for raw materials is low. - Price trend: In Shandong, the ex - factory price is expected to decline; in Henan, it is expected to follow the decline; in the delivery area and its surrounding areas, it is expected to remain stable in the short term. Overall, in the short term, urea is expected to fluctuate strongly, and in the medium term, it is expected to be weak [5]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short from high positions, do not chase short positions. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Urea futures prices opened low and closed flat, while spot prices continued to rise. With sufficient pending orders from factories, short - term prices are expected to be stable with an upward bias. Although high daily production suppresses the upside of the futures market, improved downstream demand and positive market sentiment have led to a continuous rebound in the futures market. Overall, urea prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, but caution is advised regarding price corrections at high levels [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Period - Spot Market Futures - The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1661 yuan/ton, opened low and moved high, closed flat at 1665 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.00%. The trading volume was 245,423 lots, a decrease of 3,667 lots. Among the top 20 positions of the main contract, long positions increased by 419 lots, and short positions decreased by 1,062 lots [2]. Spot - Spot prices continued to rise. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1,550 to 1,600 yuan/ton, with most increases between 10 and 20 yuan/ton, and the highest price was in Hebei [1][5]. Warehouse Receipts - On November 20, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7,183, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. 2. Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation and the futures closing price both rose today. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day. The basis for the January contract was - 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton [8]. Supply - On November 20, 2025, the national daily urea production was 207,100 tons, an increase of 59,000 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 85.34% [11]. Inventory and Orders - As of November 21, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4372 million tons, a decrease of 46,400 tons from the previous week, a 3.13% decrease. The pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.12 days, a decrease of 0.59 days from the previous period, a 7.65% decrease [12]. Downstream - From November 15 - 21, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 34.61%, an increase of 4.29 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine was 62.2%, an increase of 4.72 percentage points from the previous week [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the resilience of Xinyangfeng (000902.SZ) in the fertilizer industry, particularly in the face of challenges such as demand weakness and cost pressures, while also noting its strategic shift towards lithium battery production [4][6]. Group 1: Company Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Xinyangfeng achieved a revenue of 13.475 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.96% [8][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.374 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 23.43% compared to the previous year [8][9]. - The company indicated that the delayed autumn fertilizer sales would positively impact the fourth quarter's performance, suggesting strong future earnings [11]. Group 2: Industry Position - Xinyangfeng is a leading player in the phosphate fertilizer sector, with a production capacity of 10.28 million tons per year, maintaining the top position in the industry [12]. - The company specializes in a range of products including conventional and new-type compound fertilizers, monoammonium phosphate, iron phosphate, and phosphogypsum [12]. - Xinyangfeng has consistently ranked first in compound fertilizer production and sales nationwide, and is among the top three producers of monoammonium phosphate [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Urea prices slightly increased after a slow new - order follow - up last week. Currently, agricultural and compound fertilizer autumn fertilizers are ending, and winter storage fertilizer production has not started on a large scale. Melamine production has increased, with rigid demand for procurement. Gradual entry of off - season storage. With the release of new production capacity, the medium - and long - term supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose. The fourth - quarter gas - head maintenance is expected to start gradually in December. Affected by the export quota news, urea enterprises' shipments improved, factory inventories decreased, and port inventories slightly increased. The high domestic inventory is still in Inner Mongolia. The export quota news improves the year - end export expectation and is expected to support the spot market [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report provides data on Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - contract basis, urea main - continuous contract price, and 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][8][9] 2. Urea Output - The report shows information on urea weekly output and urea device maintenance loss volume, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [19][22] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - It includes data on production cost, spot production profit, coal - based and gas - based capacity utilization rates, and national capacity utilization rate, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [25][26][29] 4. Urea Outer - Market Price and Export Profit - The report presents urea small - particle FOB prices in the Baltic Sea, large - particle CFR prices in Southeast Asia, small - and large - particle FOB and CFR prices in China, price differences, and export and on - disk export profits, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [31][33][37] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - It shows the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of pending orders, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [48][49][50] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report provides information on upstream factory inventories, port inventories, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, and the trading volume and open interest of the main contract, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [52][53][56] Market Analysis - **Price and Basis**: On November 19, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,663 yuan/ton (+1). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,630 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,630 yuan/ton (+20), and in Jiangsu was 1,610 yuan/ton (+10). The price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was - 33 yuan/ton (+19), in Henan was - 33 yuan/ton (+19), and in Jiangsu was - 53 yuan/ton (+9). The urea production profit was 100 yuan/ton (+20), and the export profit was 1,044 yuan/ton (- 20) [2] - **Supply Side**: As of November 19, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 84.08% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.4372 million tons (- 46,400 tons), and the port sample inventory was 82,000 tons (+3,000 tons) [2] - **Demand Side**: As of November 19, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 30.32% (- 0.72%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 57.48% (+4.28%), and the number of advance order days of urea enterprises was 7.12 days (- 0.59) [2] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Range - bound, opportunistic cash - and - carry arbitrage - **Inter - period**: Wait - and - see - **Inter - variety**: None [4]

有色金属价格小幅上涨，其中铝、铜、锌分别上涨2.0%、0.9%和0.8%。 煤炭价格继续上涨，其中炼焦煤、动力煤、无烟块煤每吨1076元、788元和1165元，分别上涨1.7%、 1.2%和0.1%。 商务大数据显示，11月10日至16日，全国生产资料市场价格比前一周（环比，下同）上涨0.9%。 基础化学原料价格以涨为主，其中硫酸、纯碱分别上涨4.1%和0.2%，聚丙烯、甲醇分别下降0.3%和 0.2%。 成品油批发价格小幅回升，其中0号柴油、92号汽油、95号汽油分别上升1.4%、1.1%和0.9%。 化肥价格略有上涨，其中三元复合肥、尿素分别上涨0.2%和0.1%。 钢材价格基本持平，其中螺纹钢、高速线材每吨3320元和3516元，分别上涨0.2%和0.1%，槽钢每吨 3563元，与前一周基本持平，普通中板、热轧带钢每吨3663元和3475元，均下降0.4%。 橡胶价格略有回升，其中合成橡胶、天然橡胶分别上涨0.3%和0.1%。 ...

Group 1: Agricultural Products Market - The national market prices for edible agricultural products remained stable from November 10 to 16, with no change compared to the previous week [1] - Wholesale prices for grains and oils were mostly stable, with rice and rapeseed oil holding steady, while soybean oil and peanut oil decreased by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively, and flour increased by 0.2% [1] - Poultry product prices showed slight fluctuations, with eggs decreasing by 0.3% and white-cut chicken increasing by 0.2% [1] - Meat wholesale prices experienced minor changes, with pork priced at 18.42 yuan per kilogram, down by 1.0%, while beef remained stable and lamb increased by 0.3% [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 5.67 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.4%, with cauliflower, rapeseed, and broccoli decreasing by 7.8%, 7.6%, and 4.9% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices for aquatic products slightly declined, with crucian carp, silver carp, and grass carp decreasing by 1.4%, 0.5%, and 0.1% respectively [1] - The average wholesale price of six types of fruits saw a slight increase, with watermelon, grapes, and pears rising by 3.7%, 1.0%, and 0.2% respectively [1] Group 2: Production Materials Market - The prices of basic chemical raw materials predominantly increased, with sulfuric acid and soda ash rising by 4.1% and 0.2% respectively, while polypropylene and methanol decreased by 0.3% and 0.2% [2] - Wholesale prices for refined oil showed a slight recovery, with 0 diesel, 92 gasoline, and 95 gasoline increasing by 1.4%, 1.1%, and 0.9% respectively [2] - Prices of non-ferrous metals experienced slight increases, with aluminum, copper, and zinc rising by 2.0%, 0.9%, and 0.8% respectively [2] - Coal prices continued to rise, with coking coal, thermal coal, and anthracite priced at 1076 yuan, 788 yuan, and 1165 yuan per ton, increasing by 1.7%, 1.2%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Rubber prices showed a slight rebound, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber increasing by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices saw a slight increase, with compound fertilizer and urea rising by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [2] - Steel prices remained mostly stable, with rebar and high-speed wire priced at 3320 yuan and 3516 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively, while channel steel remained stable and ordinary medium plate and hot-rolled strip decreased by 0.4% [2]

Core Insights - As of November 19, 2025, Yara International (000893) closed at 44.13 CNY, up 4.7% with a turnover rate of 1.57% and a trading volume of 127,500 shares, resulting in a transaction value of 557 million CNY [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Yara International reported a main revenue of 3.867 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 55.76%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.363 billion CNY, up 163.01% [5] - In Q3 2025 alone, the company achieved a main revenue of 1.345 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 71.37%, and a net profit of 508 million CNY, up 104.69% [5] - The company's gross profit margin stands at 58.91%, significantly higher than the industry average of 20.04% [5] Market Position - Yara International's total market capitalization is 40.778 billion CNY, ranking 4th in the fertilizer industry, while its net assets and net profit also place it in the top 5 [5] - The company's price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is 22.44, which is considerably lower than the industry average of 99.33, indicating a favorable valuation [5] Capital Flow - On November 19, 2025, the net inflow of main funds was 9.444 million CNY, accounting for 1.7% of the total transaction value, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 12.249 million CNY, representing 2.2% of the total [1][2] - Over the past five days, the stock has experienced fluctuations in capital flow, with notable net outflows from speculative funds on several days [2][3] Institutional Ratings - In the last 90 days, 20 institutions have rated Yara International, with 15 buy ratings and 5 hold ratings, indicating a generally positive outlook [6]

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 11 月 19 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货震荡，最终报收 1663（+1/+0.06%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价窄幅提涨，成交转弱，河南出厂报 1550-1580 元/吨，山东小 颗粒出厂报 1570-1580 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1600-1610 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1530-1560 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1550-1560 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1460-1500 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 2025 年 11 月 19 日，中国尿素企业总库存量 143.72 万吨，较上周减少 4.64 万吨，环 比减少 3.13%。本周期尿素价格震荡上行，东北储备需求明显增加，部分企业受其利好 影响去库明显。 【逻辑分析】 新增出口配额消息影响消退，市场情绪表现降温，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价下跌， 成交尚可。山东地区主流出厂报价领涨，市场情绪表现降温，工业复合肥开工率下滑， 原料库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商 开始出货，新单成交清淡，个别工厂降价收单，但成交稀少，预计出厂报价下跌为主； ...

新华财经北京11月19日电在经历了前两个月的弱势下探之后，11月以来，国内尿素价格逐渐走出企稳态势。 一方面，期货盘面上，截至2025年11月18日收盘，尿素主力期货价格小幅上涨0.36%至1662元／吨，本月累 涨约3%。另一方面，现货市场上，主流地区现货低端出厂价格上涨10-20元／吨不等至1540-1580元／吨区 间。截至11月19日，河南尿素现货低端价格1540元／吨，高端价格1580元／吨（+10）。山东尿素市场低端 价格上调至1560元／吨（+10），高端价格1610元／吨（+10），CFR中国小颗粒尿素报价400美元／吨，较 上周上涨15美元／吨。 分析来看，10月尿素出口量维持120万吨高位，但受限于国内高供应，价格承压并跌至内新低。但进入11 月，随着出口配额增加利好消息带动，叠加储备需求支撑，尿素价格开始逐渐筑底企稳。 尿素开工率增加，供应端压制仍明显 供应宽松是压制尿素价格的主要利空。据统计，2025年1-10月全国尿素产量5908万吨，同比增加7.9%，其中 今年10月尿素产量升至588万吨，日产重回20万吨以上高位运行。11月检修企业陆续恢复和新产能投产，预 计尿素产量继续增加概率 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Yara International's stock has increased by 5.01%, reaching a price of 44.26 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 452 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.28%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 40.899 billion CNY [1] - Yara International, established on October 27, 1998, and listed on December 24, 1998, is primarily engaged in grain trading, international shipping and logistics, and the mining, production, and sales of potassium salts. The main revenue composition includes 97.54% from potassium chloride, 1.24% from brine, and 1.22% from other sources [1] Group 2 - Among the top ten circulating shareholders of Yara International, a fund under Penghua Fund ranks as a significant shareholder. The Penghua CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme ETF Link A (014942) entered the top ten circulating shareholders in the third quarter, holding 8.3543 million shares, which accounts for 1.03% of the circulating shares. The estimated floating profit today is approximately 17.6276 million CNY [2] - The Penghua CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme ETF Link A (014942) was established on March 8, 2022, with a latest scale of 728.091 million CNY. This year, it has achieved a return of 30.15%, ranking 1561 out of 4208 in its category; over the past year, it has returned 25.69%, ranking 1789 out of 3956; since inception, it has incurred a loss of 13.79% [2]