Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a positive trend, with the main copper futures contract rising by 1.27% to 86,070.00 yuan/ton [1] - Macro factors include a proposal by several European countries in collaboration with Ukraine to end the war with Russia, supervised by a peace committee led by Trump, which has led to a decrease in market risk aversion and a subsequent drop in gold and silver prices, impacting copper prices [1] - The copper mining sector is experiencing disturbances that limit the decline in copper prices, with previous incidents in Indonesian copper mines still providing support, and current copper concentrate port inventories significantly lower year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Consumption in traditional industries is slowing down, but there are high expectations for increased copper consumption in the renewable energy and AI sectors, although high copper prices may suppress downstream consumption in the short term [1] - Looking ahead, there is optimism in the market regarding trade agreements due to Trump's planned visit to China, which has strengthened the dollar and put pressure on copper prices [2] - The copper price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 84,000 to 86,000 yuan, with caution advised regarding changes in the refined copper demand due to variations in the refined-to-scrap copper price ratio [2]

Core Viewpoint - Southbound funds have significantly reduced their holdings in Jiangxi Copper Co., Ltd. over recent trading days, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment towards the company [1][2]. Group 1: Shareholding Changes - On October 22, 2025, southbound funds reduced their holdings by 1,007,700 shares, representing a decrease of 0.31% [2]. - Over the past five trading days, there has been a cumulative net reduction of 37,261,800 shares, with reductions occurring on all five days [1][2]. - In the last twenty trading days, there were twelve days of net reductions, totaling 15,651,600 shares [1]. Group 2: Current Holdings - As of the latest data, southbound funds hold 320 million shares of Jiangxi Copper, which accounts for 23.07% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1][2]. Group 3: Company Overview - Jiangxi Copper Co., Ltd. primarily engages in the mining, smelting, and processing of copper and gold, operating through two main segments: copper-related and gold-related industries [2]. - The company's product offerings include cathode copper, gold, silver, sulfuric acid, copper rods, copper tubes, copper foils, selenium, tellurium, rhenium, and bismuth, which are utilized across various sectors such as electrical, electronics, light industry, machinery manufacturing, construction, transportation, and military [2].

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Copper announced the successful issuance of its third phase of technology innovation bonds for the year 2025, with the funds fully received on October 22, 2025 [1] Group 1 - The company completed the issuance of the 2025 annual third phase technology innovation bonds on October 21, 2025 [1] - The total amount of funds raised from the bond issuance was fully received on October 22, 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Copper announced that the company has no overdue guarantees and no guarantee amounts involved in litigation, nor any losses due to guarantee-related judgments [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Guarantees** - The company has confirmed that there are no overdue guarantees [1] - There are no guarantees related to litigation amounts [1] - The company and its subsidiaries do not provide guarantees to entities outside the consolidated financial statements [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid Sino-US tariff disruptions, copper prices are undergoing a high-level adjustment. It is recommended to set trailing stops for existing long positions. In the long term, copper is still favored due to its status as a strategic resource in the Sino-US game and a substitute for precious metals, along with tight copper concentrate supply and surging green copper demand [6][7][84] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Viewpoint Summary - The core view is that Sino-US tariff disruptions lead to a high-level adjustment of copper prices. It is advised to set trailing stops for long positions, and copper is still promising in the long run. The operation strategy is to hold long positions cautiously, avoid blind chasing, and set trailing stops. New long positions should wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback. Production enterprises can consider selling hedges at high prices (around 86,000 - 87,000), while processing enterprises should wait for price pullbacks to buy hedges [6][7][84] Macroeconomic Analysis - **Sino-US Trade Tensions**: Trump's tariff threats show a "TACO" pattern. China has implemented countermeasures such as rare earth export controls, special port fees on US-related ships, anti-monopoly investigations, and adding some US enterprises to the unreliable entity list. The S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) rose slightly, and the market should be wary of further market fluctuations caused by Trump's inconsistent stance. The US Treasury Secretary mentioned that if China stops strict rare earth export controls, the US may extend the three-month exemption period for additional tariffs on China [12][15][84] - **Federal Reserve's Stance**: Fed Chairman Powell signaled a dovish stance, hinting at an early end to balance sheet reduction, which strengthened market expectations of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in October. However, there are differences among Fed officials regarding the pace of interest rate cuts [18] - **China's Macroeconomic Data**: In September, China's manufacturing PMI improved, CPI decline narrowed, PPI decline also narrowed, and export data exceeded expectations. The growth rate of social financing stock slowed down, and new RMB loans decreased year-on-year [21] Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Side** - **Copper Concentrate**: Disruptions in major copper mines such as Indonesia's Grasbreg, Congo's Kamoa-Kakula, and Chile's El Teniente have tightened global copper supply. In 2025, the output of global mainstream copper mining enterprises is expected to be revised down to 1.22 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.18%. The import of copper concentrate increased in August, and the port inventory increased slightly. The copper concentrate TC is at a historically low level, and the smelting processing fee is deeply inverted [47] - **Scrap Copper**: Supply is tight due to restrictions on European high-quality scrap copper exports, Sino-US tariff frictions, and domestic policy adjustments. The refined-scrap copper price spread has narrowed [52] - **Refined Copper**: In September, China's electrolytic copper production decreased significantly. In October, due to smelter maintenance, production is expected to continue to decline. Overseas, smelters are facing a survival crisis due to low TC/RCs. The import of refined copper showed mixed trends [57] - **Demand Side** - **Downstream Enterprises**: High copper prices have suppressed demand, and downstream enterprises are adopting a wait-and-see attitude and making purchases only for essential needs. However, the operating rates of some downstream processing enterprises rebounded slightly in September [63] - **End-User Industries**: Power and new energy vehicle sectors show strong demand. In the first eight months, power grid investment increased, and new photovoltaic installations were prominent. In September, automobile production and sales reached record highs. The home appliance industry is expected to have a front-loaded strong performance followed by a weaker second half, and the real estate market is still at the bottom [69] Summary and Outlook - In the short term, due to Sino-US tariff disruptions and profit-taking by long positions, copper prices have adjusted at a high level. It is recommended to set trailing stops for existing long positions and wait for price pullbacks to enter the market. Attention should be paid to the support level of 80,000 - 82,000. Unless Sino-US relations deteriorate rapidly, the probability of a deep adjustment in copper prices is low. In the long term, copper is favored as a strategic resource and a substitute for precious metals, along with tight copper concentrate supply and surging green copper demand. The price range for Shanghai copper is expected to be between 80,000 and 88,000, and for LME copper, between $10,000 and $11,000 per ton [7][84]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are likely to show a mainly oscillating and moderately strengthening trend. There are limited arbitrage opportunities for Shanghai copper. It is recommended to mainly observe option contracts [3][41] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract CU2510 of Shanghai copper futures mainly showed a wide - range oscillating market, with prices ranging from around 82,635 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 86,755 yuan/ton [7] - Last week, the price of LME copper futures showed a wide - range oscillating trend, with contract prices running around 10,463 - 10,860 US dollars/ton [11] 2. Macroeconomic Aspect - In September 2025, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.3% year - on - year. From January to September, the average national consumer price decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period last year. In September, the national consumer price index increased by 0.1% month - on - month [2][14][40] - In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared with the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month [2][17][40] 3. Spot Analysis - As of October 17, 2025, the average price of Shanghai Wumaotong was 84,835 yuan/ton, and the average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metal Market was 84,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 530 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [20] - As of October 17, 2025, the premium and discount of electrolytic copper remained at around an increase of 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [20] 4. Supply and Demand Situation - As of October 16, 2025, the rough smelting fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 40.8 US dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was - 4.08 US cents/pound [26] 5. Inventory Situation - As of October 17, 2025, the cathode copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 110,240 tons, an increase of 550 tons compared with the previous week [30] - As of October 16, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 137,450 tons, a decrease of 900 tons compared with the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts was 5.69% [30] - As of October 16, 2025, the COMEX copper inventory was 344,652 tons, an increase of 1,417 tons compared with the previous trading day [30] - As of October 16, 2025, the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 100,000 tons, the inventory in the Guangdong region was 26,400 tons, and the inventory in the Wuxi region was 37,600 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone increased by 1,300 tons compared with the previous week [30] 6. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - The Fed will discuss interest rate cuts again at the meeting on October 28 - 29. As of last weekend, the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in October reached 97.3% [2][40] - The price of domestic copper concentrates continues to decline, and the copper smelting processing fee remains at a historical low. The inventory of Shanghai copper has little change, and the inventory level is at a moderate position in recent years. The COMEX copper inventory continues to accumulate [2][40]

Group 1 - Japan, Spain, and South Korea issued a rare joint statement expressing deep concern over the declining copper treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs), warning that the current situation is unsustainable for both smelters and miners [2] - The industrial sectors of the three countries stated that the deterioration of TC/RCs is prompting a reassessment of global copper smelting operations, with some companies indicating intentions to reduce or exit copper concentrate smelting [2] - TC/RCs, which are a primary revenue source for smelters, have turned negative in some spot transactions this year, forcing smelters to pay miners for providing smelting services [2] Group 2 - The three countries' industrial departments highlighted that the current market environment hinders the sustainable development of the copper smelting industry and mining sectors in resource-producing countries, increasing dependency on specific nations [2] - They expressed a desire for TC/RCs in copper concentrate trade to return to sustainable levels and committed to collaborating with relevant countries and stakeholders to establish a resilient and sustainable copper supply chain [2] - Japanese copper smelters JX Advanced Metals and Mitsubishi Materials announced plans to reduce copper concentrate processing due to declining fees eroding profit margins [3]

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Copper Industry (000878) expects to produce 16 tons of gold and 680 tons of silver by 2025, indicating a positive impact on the company's performance due to rising precious metal prices, although the overall growth impact is limited due to low self-sufficiency in copper concentrate production [1] Group 1 - The company anticipates gold production of 16 tons by 2025 [1] - The company expects silver production to reach 680 tons by 2025 [1] - Rising prices of gold and silver are expected to positively influence the company's performance [1] Group 2 - The company has a low self-sufficiency rate in copper concentrate production [1] - The impact of precious metal price increases on overall performance is limited due to the low production of copper concentrate [1]

Group 1 - The company, Yunnan Copper, has set a gold production target of 16 tons and silver production target of 680 tons for the year 2025 [2] - In the first half of 2025, the company has already produced 12.19 tons of gold and 276.63 tons of silver [2] - The actual production of precious metals may be influenced by various factors including market conditions, raw material supply, and production technology [2]

Group 1 - Aurubis is in preliminary discussions with the U.S. regarding support policies for a new copper smelter following the launch of its recycling plant in Georgia [2] - The U.S. has a significant demand for smelting capacity, with domestic refined copper production only meeting half of the 1.7 million tons demand, which is expected to increase to 2.3 million tons by 2035 [2] - Aurubis is considering three options to capitalize on the opportunity, with the first being an expansion of existing recycling operations, the second a new recycling plant on the U.S. West Coast, and the third a long-term smelting facility [3] Group 2 - The U.S. recycling market is projected to grow by 26% over the next decade, reaching an annual capacity of 555,000 tons [4] - Aurubis plans to invest approximately €500 million (about $577.7 million) in a new precious metals refining and recycling facility in Hamburg to increase platinum and antimony production [4] - Strong demand and supply concerns have led Aurubis to raise its premium for European customers to a historical high of $315 per ton, a 38% increase from the previous year [4]