【6月美联储按兵不动，铜市多因素交织有调整压力但下跌空间或有限】6月，美联储按兵不动，连续四 次会议暂停降息，预计今年降息两次，暗示滞胀风险增加。地缘风险、关税政策不确定及降息延后，压 制了市场风险偏好。 供应方面，上周国内TC报价为 -43.80美元/吨，仍处历史低位，显示矿石供应紧 张。预测2025年全球铜冶炼产能利用率或跌破80%，中国炼厂面临减产压力。虽冶炼亏损，但国内减产 意愿有限，间接支撑铜精矿报价。预计6月国内电解铜产量环比降0.72万吨，降幅0.63%，同比增12.61 万吨，升幅12.55%；1 - 6月累计产量预计同比增67.09万吨，升幅11.34%。 需求端，因铜价处于阶段高 位，下游采购意愿不足，开工率放缓，拿货积极性低。终端电线电缆有韧性，但家电排产缩水，高温阶 段房地产形成拖累。近期基本面变化不大，总体供应偏紧，淡季需求有边际走弱预期。 库存上，上周 LME库存持续下降，纽约期货库存升至20万吨以上，再创近年新高，机构赌美国对铜产品进口加征关 税预期未减。国内社会库存小幅反弹，期货库存回落。 市场观点认为，6月美联储按兵不动等因素压制 市场风险偏好。铜矿TC维持深度负值，虽精铜矿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of Jinchuan Copper Co., Ltd. marks a new era of market-oriented, professional, and international high-quality development for the company in the non-ferrous metal sector [2][7]. Group 1: Company Development - On June 19, 2023, Jinchuan Copper Co., Ltd. was officially unveiled, transitioning into a joint-stock company after completing a share reform within a year [3][7]. - The company has integrated 13 subsidiaries, including Guangxi Jinchuan Company and Yongchang Copper Industry Company, under the restructuring plan to enhance regional resource collaboration [2][5]. Group 2: Industry Position and Strategy - Jinchuan Copper has established a complete circular industrial chain covering copper smelting and precious metal recycling, leading in platinum group metal production in Asia and ranking third in cathode copper production in China [5]. - The company is actively expanding its product applications in high-end manufacturing sectors such as new energy, electronic information, and aerospace, forming deep partnerships with industry leaders to drive technological upgrades [5][7]. - Jinchuan Copper aims to promote high-end, intelligent, and green transformation in the industry, positioning itself as a benchmark for high-quality development and contributing to industry innovation [7].

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建 议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发， 需注明出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 沪铜产业日报 2025/6/19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 78,310.00 | -550.00↓ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 9,591.00 | -64.50↓ | | | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 200.00 | +60.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 175,704.00 | -8662.00↓ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -1,564.00 | ...

智利国家铜业公司（Codelco）：预计智利Potrerillos铜冶炼厂将于7月底再次运营。 工厂关闭不会对销售造成太大的影响。 ...

期货研究报告 商品研究 [铜早报 Table_ReportType] 走势评级： 铜——高位盘整， 后续看跌 楼家豪—有色分析师 从业资格证号：F3080463 投资咨询证号：Z0018424 联系电话：0571-28132615 邮箱：loujiahao@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20 楼 邮编：311200 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 6 月 18 日 报告内容摘要: 宏观与行业消息：【伦敦金属交易所铜库存锐减，买方面临供应吃紧】据 报道，伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜买方面临供应吃紧，随着交易员争夺交易 所仓库中不断下降的铜库存，现货铜价飙升。周二，将在一天内到期的合 约较次日到期合约一度溢价每吨 36 美元，为 2021 年历史性供应吃紧以来 最阔。尽管这一所谓的明日/次日价差临近收盘出现回落，但其他中长期限 价差继续收紧。现货合约价格飙升，即所谓的现货升水，表明交易所仓库 中的库存不足以满足交易商的需求。此前，LME 可交割库存今年已减少 80%。（华尔街见闻） 品种逻辑:宏观角 ...

证券代码：000878 证券简称：云南铜业 公告编号：2025-048 云南铜业股份有限公司 关于选举第十届董事会职工代表董事 的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整， 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 云南铜业股份有限公司（以下简称公司）根据《公司法》 《公司章程》的相关规定，召开职工代表大会选举郭开师先 生为公司职工代表董事，同股东大会选举通过的非职工代表 董事共同组成第十届董事会，任期自股东大会选举产生新一 届董事会之日起至第十届董事会届满之日止。 本次选举第十届董事会董事事项完成后，董事会中兼任 公司高级管理人员以及由职工代表担任的董事人数总计未 超过公司董事总数的二分之一。 特此公告 云南铜业股份有限公司董事会 公司第十届董事会职工代表董事简历 郭开师。男，汉族，1981年5月生，中共党员，大学本 科，高级技师。历任云南铜业股份有限公司冶炼加工总厂稀 贵分厂成品工区工区长、水洗工区工区长、湿法区域作业经 理。现任云南铜业股份有限公司西南铜业分公司稀贵厂值班 长，先后荣获"全国劳动模范""全国五一劳动奖章""云 南省劳动模范""中央企业技术能手""云南省技术能手" "云南 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jiangxi Copper Group's Guixi Smelting Plant has transformed into a global leader in copper smelting, achieving over 1 million tons of production capacity and setting industry benchmarks through innovation and advanced technology [1][6]. Group 1: Company Overview - Guixi Smelting Plant, established in 1979, aims to revitalize China's copper industry and is recognized as the largest production base for copper, sulfur chemicals, and precious metals in China [1]. - The plant has achieved the highest global recovery rates for copper smelting and ranks among the top for gold and silver recovery rates, establishing itself as a benchmark factory in the copper industry [1]. Group 2: Production Management - The plant has developed a benchmarking management system over ten years, transitioning from "benchmarking" to "creating benchmarks" and implementing a performance management system that emphasizes quality over speed [2]. - The "GUIYE" brand of cathode copper has gained international recognition, and the sulfuric acid products consistently maintain national gold award quality [2]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The plant features the world's first fully automated production line for cathode copper plate transfer, integrating 12 complex processes into a streamlined operation, significantly improving efficiency and reducing energy consumption [4]. - Since being selected as a pilot demonstration factory for intelligent manufacturing in 2016, the plant has seen a 30% increase in production efficiency, a 10% reduction in overall energy consumption, and a 25% decrease in carbon emissions [6]. Group 4: Future Goals - Guixi Smelting Plant aims to become the best modern copper smelting factory globally, setting a standard for high-quality development among state-owned enterprises in Jiangxi [6].

Group 1: Market Overview - Copper prices have shown a narrow fluctuation since May, with market sentiment being cautious due to a tight supply from mines and weakening demand [2] - The macroeconomic environment lacks clear drivers, with potential tariff increases on copper following the U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, causing temporary price spikes [3] - The U.S. economy shows signs of stability with improved GDP and employment data, but concerns over fiscal deficits and credit risks keep market sentiment cautious [3] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Global copper mine production in March was 1.969 million tons, up 11.4% month-on-month and 3.68% year-on-year, with Chile's production at a four-year high [4] - Supply disruptions are noted, including a temporary halt in operations at the Kakula copper mine due to an earthquake, while other mines remain unaffected [4] - Domestic processing fees for copper remain low, with a recent figure of -$43.29 per ton, indicating ongoing supply tightness [5] Group 3: Production and Demand - Global refined copper production for January to March was 7.058 million tons, a 3.17% year-on-year increase, driven by growth in China, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and India [6] - China's electrolytic copper production in May reached 1.1383 million tons, a 12.86% year-on-year increase, but a decline in production is expected due to tight copper ore supply [6] - Demand from downstream sectors is weakening, with reduced operating rates in copper rod, pipe, and plate manufacturers, while cable manufacturers maintain higher rates due to existing orders [8] Group 4: Inventory and Pricing - LME copper inventory has decreased rapidly, with total stocks at 132,400 tons, raising concerns about short-term supply risks [7] - Domestic copper inventory is low, and the spot premium has decreased, indicating a tightening supply situation [9] - The market is experiencing a tug-of-war between tight supply and weakening demand, leading to expectations of continued price fluctuations in the short term [9]

Core Viewpoint - Liangshan Prefecture is transitioning from a resource-rich area to an industrial powerhouse, focusing on building strong industrial chains and enhancing local economic development through resource utilization and strategic planning [5][10]. Group 1: Resource Utilization - Liangshan has abundant wind energy resources, with the first wind farm, Dechang Wind Farm, capable of reducing carbon emissions by approximately 320,000 tons annually [7]. - The region has established a leading position in hydropower and new energy installations in Sichuan, with significant reserves of light rare earth minerals and vanadium-titanium magnetite [7]. - A resource survey initiated last year has led to substantial increases in mineral reserves, including 220 million tons of vanadium-titanium magnetite and 1.385 billion tons of phosphate rock [8]. Group 2: Industrial Chain Development - Liangshan is focusing on extending its industrial chains, exemplified by a new project for producing 125,000 tons of cathode copper, which will fill a gap in Sichuan's large-scale cathode copper production [8]. - The copper industry is projected to exceed 12 billion yuan in output this year, with plans for an integrated industrial chain encompassing mining, selection, smelting, and processing [8]. - The establishment of an AI data center project in Yanxian County aims to leverage clean energy advantages to support the digital economy, with an expected output of 2 billion yuan in the following year [8]. Group 3: Strategic Planning and Investment - Liangshan has identified over 40 target enterprises for investment, successfully signing seven projects with a total investment of 22.457 billion yuan in 2024 [10]. - The region is actively promoting a favorable business environment by providing detailed resource and energy advantages to attract enterprises [11]. - A focus on both large and small enterprises is evident, with significant collaboration between major companies like Xichang Steel and smaller firms for resource recycling and utilization [11]. Group 4: Ecological Considerations - Liangshan is committed to balancing resource development with ecological protection, implementing measures to avoid the "resource trap" often faced by resource-rich cities [13]. - The region is exploring sustainable development paths, including establishing compensation mechanisms for ecological protection in river basins [13]. - High-purity titanium production is being prioritized, with a focus on high-end applications in semiconductor manufacturing and aerospace, addressing critical supply challenges [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai copper shows a volatile trend, with a decrease in open interest, a spot premium, and a weakening basis [2]. - The overall fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of sufficient supply and relatively stable demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 78,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,680 dollars/ton, an increase of 58.5 dollars [2]. - The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 193,023 lots, a decrease of 2,191 lots [2]. - The positions of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper are 3,161 lots, a decrease of 1,541 lots; the LME copper inventory is 141,350 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons [2]. - The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 105,791 tons, an increase of 7,120 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 83,300 tons, an increase of 8,275 tons [2]. - The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 31,687 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 copper is 78,415 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan; the spot price of 1 copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 78,355 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan [2]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 98 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 79 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 dollars [2]. - The basis of the CU main contract is 245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 48.48 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.83 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 292.44 million tons, an increase of 53.13 million tons; the rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 43.56 dollars/kiloton, an increase of 0.72 dollars [2]. - The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 68,660 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 170 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan is 69,360 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 170 yuan [2]. - The processing fee for crude copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the processing fee for crude copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 125.40 million tons, an increase of 0.60 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper materials is 440,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons [2]. - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 55,340 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 66,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 208.10 million tons, a decrease of 4.42 million tons; the cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 1,408.16 billion yuan, an increase of 451.95 billion yuan [2]. - The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 27,729.57 billion yuan, an increase of 7,825.40 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,167,000,000 pieces, a decrease of 30,199.90 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.77%, a decrease of 0.03%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 23.25%, a decrease of 0.22% [2]. - The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 11.34%, a decrease of 0.0012%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 0.83, an increase of 0.0285 [2]. Industry News - The "Beige Book" released by the Federal Reserve shows that the US economic activity has slightly declined, and the overall economic outlook remains pessimistic. Some enterprises plan to raise prices in the next three months [2]. - US President Trump called on Powell to cut interest rates. The US ADP employment in May increased by 37,000, far lower than expected [2]. - The National Energy Administration organized the first batch of pilot projects for the construction of a new power system and required the acceleration of the continuous operation of power spot markets [2]. - The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China in May reached 1.24 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 9% [2].