Market Overview - The A-share market continues to experience a震荡上涨, with major indices showing recovery in both volume and liquidity. Weekly financing increased significantly, with stock ETFs seeing a net inflow of 36.34 billion yuan, indicating positive market sentiment following the Central Economic Work Conference in December [5][6]. Industry Insights - The copper price outlook remains positive, supported by the National Development and Reform Commission's emphasis on optimizing traditional industries, including copper smelting. Despite a decrease in cable companies' operating rates, the supply-demand dynamics for copper are expected to remain tight into 2026, favoring price increases [5]. - The steel sector is facing a high inventory level for hot-rolled coils, the highest in five years. The Central Economic Work Conference has reiterated the need for controlling crude steel production, which may lead to a more balanced supply and improved profitability for the steel sector in the long term [6]. Utilities Sector - The annual long-term contract bidding results in Guangdong met expectations, with the comprehensive on-grid electricity price remaining stable. Additionally, the capacity subsidy in Shanghai has increased to 165 yuan per kilowatt for 2026. As of November, the total electricity consumption increased by 6.2% year-on-year, and the cumulative installed power generation capacity rose by 17.1% year-on-year [8]. Pharmaceutical Sector - The approval of oral semaglutide for weight loss by the FDA is expected to catalyze industry growth. Recent clinical data from Structure and Gilead Pharmaceuticals has shown promising results, and collaborations between Pfizer and Fosun Pharma for oral small molecule weight loss drugs are underway. Furthermore, Shiyao Innovation has announced a platform integration for its GLP-1 business [8].

Macro Policy Updates - The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection's fifth plenary session will be held from January 12 to 14, 2026[2] - The National People's Congress will convene its fourth session on March 5, 2026[2] Fiscal Policy - The national fiscal work conference on December 27 emphasized expanding fiscal spending and optimizing government bond tools[3] - New special bond quotas will be allocated to regions with high investment efficiency and project readiness[3] - The Ministry of Finance will enforce strict accountability for local government debt and prohibit the creation of new hidden debts[3] Monetary and Capital Markets - The People's Bank of China suggested integrating incremental and stock policies to enhance financial support for key sectors[4] - The 2025 Financial Stability Report aims to improve the investment scale and proportion of long-term funds in A-shares[4] Industrial Development - The National Development and Reform Commission is focusing on optimizing traditional industries and regulating competition in emerging sectors[5] - The industrial and information technology conference highlighted the need for technological innovation and the development of new industries[5] Risk Management - There is a risk of delayed policy updates affecting economic stability[5]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 98,860.00 | +140.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 12,534.00 | +371.50↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | -80.00 | +60.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 235,503.00 | -16594.00↓ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -41,742.00 | -13656.00↓ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 157,025.00 | -1550.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 111,703.00 | +15898.00↑ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 48,875.00 | -2875.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 65,878.00 | -2856.00↓ | | | | | SMM1#铜现货(日,元/吨) | 100,740.00 | ...

Report Title - Market Game Intensifies, Copper Price Reaches 100,000 - Copper and Aluminum Weekly Report 2025.12.29 [1] Report Author - Liu Peiyang [2] Report Core Views Copper - Macro: The market continues to trade on the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut next year [3]. - Fundamental: Global copper inventories are shifting to the US market, and there is still an expectation of supply tightness. High - priced copper suppresses short - term demand, but long - term demand from emerging fields like AI may be a breakout point [3]. - Overall: The medium - term bullish logic for copper prices remains unchanged, with short - term attention on macro sentiment and capital flow disturbances [3]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Macro: The market continues to trade on the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut next year [5]. - Fundamental: The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is 4.439 million tons with a slight increase. December is the traditional off - season, but consumption in industries like automotive, power, and electronics is resilient, and the aluminum ingot social inventory has not entered a continuous accumulation phase [5]. - Overall: With little change in fundamentals and the market trading on the Fed's rate - cut expectation, aluminum prices may remain high [5]. Alumina - Macro: The market continues to trade on the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut next year [6]. - Fundamental: As of December 25, the national metallurgical alumina installed capacity is 110.32 million tons/year, and the operating capacity is 88.085 million tons/year with a flat weekly operating rate of 79.85%. Alumina plants are continuously accumulating inventory [6]. - Overall: The alumina market remains in an oversupply situation, but an article from the National Development and Reform Commission boosts market sentiment, and the rebound situation should be monitored [6]. Report Recommendations Copper - For the SHFE Copper 2602 contract, the upper reference resistance level is 105,000 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 95,000 yuan/ton [3]. Electrolytic Aluminum - For the SHFE Aluminum 2602 contract, the upper reference resistance level is 22,800 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 21,600 yuan/ton [5]. Alumina - For the Alumina 2605 contract, the upper reference resistance level is 2,900 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 2,600 yuan/ton [6]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review Weekly Market Performance - Provided the week - on - week cumulative price change statistics for various metals from December 22 - 26 [11]. Weekly News - The National Development and Reform Commission published an article on promoting the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries, emphasizing management and layout for resource - constrained industries like alumina and copper smelting [12]. - The China Copper Industry Joint Procurement Group (CSPT) stopped setting a guidance price for copper concentrate processing fees in Q1 2026, reflecting a new stage in the bargaining power game between domestic smelters and miners [12]. - Jiangxi Copper announced an offer to acquire SolGold plc, valuing the target company at about £867 million [12]. - Gree Electric stated it has no immediate plan to replace copper with aluminum in air - conditioners due to performance differences [12]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the approved storage capacities of several alumina delivery warehouses and added a new storage point [12]. 02 Macro Analysis Domestic Market - From January to November, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 6.62686 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. In November, the profit of these enterprises decreased by 13.1% year - on - year [14]. Overseas Market - The initial estimate of the US real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate in Q3 2025 was 4.3%, significantly higher than the expected 3.3% and the previous 3.8%. After the GDP data release, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut slightly decreased [16]. 03 Non - ferrous Market Analysis Copper - **Spot Market**: Provided data on copper premiums, refined - scrap copper price differences, and other indicators [21]. - **Futures Market**: Presented the position data of SHFE copper futures, options, and international copper futures [24]. - **Overseas Market**: Analyzed the price differences between US and LME copper, LME copper premiums, and the relationship with the US dollar index [27]. - **Market Inventory**: Showed the inventory data of SHFE copper, Shanghai bonded area copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper [30]. - **Downstream Consumption**: As of December 25, the SMM national mainstream copper inventory increased by 14.96% week - on - week, and the domestic major refined copper rod enterprises' operating rate was 60.73%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.34 percentage points [34]. Aluminum - **Domestic Market**: Provided data on A00 aluminum ingot premiums, aluminum alloy price differences, and social inventories of aluminum rods and electrolytic aluminum [36]. - **Futures Market**: Presented the position data of aluminum futures, options, and alumina futures and options [39]. - **Overseas Market**: Analyzed LME aluminum premiums, the relationship with the US dollar index, and LME aluminum total inventory [42]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: As of December 25, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 60.8%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7 percentage points [44]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: As of December 26, the SMM ADC12 price rose by 250 yuan/ton week - on - week to a new high for the year [48]. - **Cost and Profit**: Analyzed the cost and profit of electrolytic aluminum and its relationship with raw material prices [51]. Alumina - **Spot Market**: Provided data on alumina prices in different regions, the average spot price index, and raw material prices [54]. - **Futures Market**: Presented the relationship between alumina inventory futures, futures closing prices, and the prices of related products [57]. - **Market Supply and Demand**: As of December 25, the alumina supply was stable, and the demand slightly increased due to the new production capacity release of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia [60]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of December 25, the domestic alumina industry cost was 2,940.91 yuan/ton, and the average industry profit was - 227.82 yuan/ton [61].

01 主要观点策略 铜周报：弱美元叠加供紧预期，铜价突破新高 2025-12-29 01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 01 上周行情回顾 p 上周沪铜继续突破上行。截至上周五收至98720元/吨，周涨幅5.95%。宏观面，美联储政策偏宽松预期持续，弱美元支撑金属上 涨。国家发改委《大力推动传统产业优化提升》文件提出铜冶炼端的约束，铜产业反内卷情绪继续升温。嘉能可旗下铜矿工会传出罢 工可能性，加剧铜供给紧缺担忧。当前美国comex囤积的铜库存持续增加，非美地区铜供应紧张预期持续，区域性供需错配显著。宏 观面美联储宽松货币预期和产业面供给紧缺担忧继续推升铜价。 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 90000 95000 100000 105000 25-12-26 25-12-22 25-12-16 25-12-10 25-12-04 25-11-28 25-11-24 25-11-18 25-11-12 25-11-06 25-10-31 25-10-27 25-10-21 25-10-15 25-10-09 25- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are likely to show a mainly oscillating and strengthening trend. Arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to mainly observe option contracts. [5][36] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract CU2602 of Shanghai copper futures showed an upward trend, ranging from around 93,390 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 99,730 yuan/ton. [9] 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspect - From December 25th to 26th, the National Conference on Industry and Information Technology emphasized ten key tasks for 2026, including cultivating and expanding emerging and future industries. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate path dot - plot shows 1 rate cut of 25 basis points in 2026, but analysts generally expect 2 - 3 rate cuts. Institutions like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley expect 2 rate cuts, with the policy rate dropping to 3.00% - 3.25%. [12][13] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation 3.3.1 Electrolytic Copper Production - As of November 2025, monthly refined copper production was 1.236 million tons, an increase of 32,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. As of December 25, 2025, the Chinese copper smelter's rough smelting fee was - 44 dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was - 4.58 cents/pound. [16] 3.3.2 Copper Product Production - As of November 2025, monthly copper product production was 2.226 million tons, an increase of 222,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%. [22] 3.4 Inventory Situation 3.4.1 Global Visible Inventory - As of December 26, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory was 111,703 tons, an increase of 15,898 tons from the previous week. As of December 23, 2025, LME copper inventory was 158,575 tons, an increase of 825 tons from the previous trading day, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 29.34%. [26] 3.4.2 Domestic Invisible Market Inventory - As of December 25, 2025, the Shanghai bonded area inventory was 96,500 tons (a decrease of 2,300 tons from the previous week), the Guangdong area inventory was 23,900 tons, and the Wuxi area inventory was 40,100 tons. [26] 3.5 Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve's interest rate path dot - plot shows 1 rate cut of 25 basis points in 2026, but analysts generally expect 2 - 3 rate cuts. Global refined copper supply and demand are basically balanced. Electrolytic copper production is growing rapidly month - on - month and still has a high year - on - year growth. Chinese copper smelter processing fees are slightly decreasing. The price difference between refined and scrap copper is expanding rapidly. Copper product production remains at a high level. Shanghai copper inventory has increased significantly, and the inventory level is at a relatively high level in recent years. LME copper inventory has decreased slightly. [35] 3.6 Future Outlook - Copper prices are likely to show a mainly oscillating and strengthening trend. Arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to mainly observe option contracts. [5][36]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced a general increase, with notable highs in silver, copper, and lithium carbonate [2] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil rose by 4.23% and crude oil by 3.56% [2] - Lithium carbonate futures reached a new high, with prices exceeding 130,000 yuan/ton, marking a 65.02% increase for the year [2][3] Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Insights - Lithium carbonate prices continued to rise, with spot prices reported at 111,900 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 14.59% [3] - Supply remains tight, with a decrease in imports from Chile by 26.84% in November [3] - Demand is expected to grow, particularly in the energy storage sector, with a projected growth rate of 40%-50% by 2026 [3] Group 3: Copper Market Dynamics - Copper futures saw a 5.95% increase, closing at 98,720 yuan/ton, breaking the 100,000 yuan mark [5] - Supply constraints are evident, with a significant reduction in processing fees expected by 2026 [6] - Demand from the electric grid and the electric vehicle sector is expected to support copper prices [6][7] Group 4: Industrial Profit Trends - In November, industrial profits for large enterprises fell to a year-on-year decline of 13.1%, a drop of 7.6 percentage points from October [8] - The mining sector saw a profit decline of 21.2%, while high-tech manufacturing profits increased by 10% [8][9] - The overall profit margin for industrial enterprises is under pressure, with an asset-liability ratio reaching a near ten-year high [9] Group 5: Currency and Economic Outlook - The offshore RMB broke the 7.0 mark against the USD, with a 4% appreciation year-to-date [11] - Factors driving this appreciation include a weaker USD, stronger Chinese stock market, and increased demand for currency conversion by export enterprises [11] - Predictions suggest the RMB may maintain a strong position against the USD, with a potential target of 6.8 [12][13]

Group 1: Market Strategy - The market is expected to experience a "spring rally" supported by continuous policy efforts and increased capital inflows, with historical trends indicating such rallies occur almost every year in the A-share market [5] - Economic growth is anticipated to remain within a reasonable range, further solidifying the foundation for the capital market's prosperity [5] - Focus on growth and consumer sectors for industry allocation, with a specific emphasis on the commercial aerospace concept during market dips [5] Group 2: Lithium Industry - Major lithium producers have announced production cuts, which are expected to support lithium prices and improve the supply-demand balance, with carbon lithium inventory decreasing for 19 consecutive weeks [6] - The demand for energy storage is projected to boost expectations for the industry, leading to a favorable supply-demand outlook for 2026 [6] Group 3: Copper Industry - The National Development and Reform Commission has emphasized the need for enhanced management and optimization of the copper smelting industry, which is expected to support copper prices despite a decrease in cable enterprise operating rates [7] - The supply-demand situation for copper remains tight, leading to a positive outlook for copper prices [7] Group 4: Oil and Petrochemical Industry - The oil and petrochemical index saw a 15.1% increase in 2025, with strong stock performance expected from major oil companies and related engineering firms [8] - The coal chemical industry is anticipated to improve profitability due to declining coal prices and accelerated industrial upgrades [8] Group 5: Basic Chemical Industry - The basic chemical industry recorded a 41.4% increase in 2025, ranking fifth among all industries, with expectations for supply-demand optimization and recovery in profitability in 2026 [9] - Strong growth momentum is anticipated in new chemical materials driven by demand from AI, OLED, and robotics [9] Group 6: New Energy and Environmental Protection - Key areas for investment during the current spring rally include AIDC power storage, lithium batteries, and hydrogen ammonia, with significant potential for overseas orders in AIDC power [9] - The supply-side changes in lithium carbonate and the anticipated domestic energy storage tenders in 2026 are expected to enhance price support [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article maintains a positive outlook on copper prices, expecting them to rise due to tight supply and demand dynamics despite short-term pressures from increased inventory and reduced demand in certain sectors [4][5]. Supply and Demand - As of December 26, 2025, the SHFE copper closing price was 98,720 RMB/ton, up 5.95% from December 19, 2025, while the LME copper closing price was 12,133 USD/ton, up 3.37% [4]. - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need for enhanced management and optimization in industries such as copper smelting, indicating a focus on supply-side reforms [4]. - Despite a decrease in cable enterprise operating rates, which may suppress demand, the overall supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight into 2026, supporting a bullish outlook on copper prices [4]. Inventory Levels - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 16.8% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 4.3% [5]. - As of December 26, 2025, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 775,000 tons, up 5.9% from the previous week [5]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory across major exchanges totaled 716,000 tons, up 1.4% week-on-week as of December 19, 2025 [5]. Supply Metrics - In October 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 130,000 tons, down 8.1% month-on-month and down 12.1% year-on-year [6]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper (精废价差) was 4,218 RMB/ton as of December 26, 2025, down 464 RMB/ton from December 19, 2025 [6]. Smelting and Production - China's electrolytic copper production in November 2025 was 1.1031 million tons, up 1.1% month-on-month and up 9.8% year-on-year [7]. - The TC spot price was -44.90 USD/ton as of December 26, 2025, down 0.9 USD/ton from December 19, 2025, marking a low not seen since September 2007 [7]. - In November, copper imports were 271,000 tons, down 3.9% month-on-month and down 24.7% year-on-year, while exports were 143,000 tons, up 116.8% month-on-month and up 1,128.1% year-on-year [7]. Demand Insights - Cable manufacturing accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with operating rates at 60.75% as of December 25, 2025, down 5.96 percentage points from the previous week [8]. - Air conditioning production, which represents about 13% of domestic copper demand, is projected to increase by 11% year-on-year for January 2026 [8]. - The operating rate for brass rods, which account for about 4.2% of domestic copper demand, was 50.2% in November, up 6.7 percentage points month-on-month but down 4.7 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Futures Market - The SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 2% week-on-week, with a total of 252,000 contracts as of December 26, 2025, placing the position at the 80th percentile since 1995 [8]. - As of December 16, 2025, the non-commercial net long position on COMEX was 65,000 contracts, up 3.8% week-on-week, also at the 89th percentile since 1990 [8].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are rising significantly due to the resonance of macro and fundamental expectations. The macro - environment shows strong economic data in the US and continuous release of favorable policies in China. Fundamentally, short - term domestic spot drivers are weakening, but overseas drivers remain strong. Long - term fundamentals still support copper prices [3][7]. - It is recommended to use a long - position trading model as multiple logics drive the price to remain firm. There are also opportunities in spread trading such as term positive spreads and internal - external reverse spreads [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - **Volatility**: The volatility of LME, SHFE, and INE copper has expanded. The LME copper price volatility is around 14%, and the SHFE copper volatility is about 18%, showing a significant rebound compared to the previous week [12][13]. - **Term Spread**: The term structure of SHFE copper has strengthened marginally, and the LME copper spot premium has expanded. The COMEX copper near - end C - structure has also widened [14][16]. - **Position**: The LME copper position has decreased, while the positions of SHFE and INE copper have increased. The SHFE copper position has increased by 22,800 lots to 654,700 lots [17]. - **Fund and Industry Position**: The net short position of LME commercial enterprises has decreased, and the net long position of CFTC non - commercial has increased [23]. - **Spot Premium**: The domestic copper spot premium has weakened, while the Yangshan Port copper premium has rebounded. The US copper premium remains at a high level, and the Rotterdam and Southeast Asian copper premiums are stable or rising [27][29]. - **Inventory**: The global total copper inventory has increased, with a significant increase in domestic social inventory. The bonded area inventory has decreased, the COMEX inventory has increased, and the LME copper inventory has decreased [30][34]. - **Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: The LME copper position - to - inventory ratio fluctuates, and the SHFE copper position - to - inventory ratio is at a historically low level [35]. 3.2 Supply End - **Copper Concentrate**: Imports have increased year - on - year, and the processing fee remains weak. The port inventory has decreased, and the smelting loss has narrowed [38][40]. - **Recycled Copper**: Imports and domestic production have increased year - on - year. The scrap - refined copper price difference has widened, and the import loss has turned into profit [41][46]. - **Blister Copper**: Imports have increased month - on - month, and the processing fee has rebounded [49]. - **Refined Copper**: Production has increased year - on - year, imports have decreased, and the loss of copper spot imports has expanded [52]. 3.3 Demand End - **开工率**: The operating rate of copper product enterprises rebounded in November, but the operating rates of copper tubes and copper strips and foils are at historically low levels. The operating rate of wire and cable decreased marginally in the week of December 25 [57]. - **Profit**: The copper rod processing fee is at a historically low level, while the copper tube processing fee has rebounded. The copper strip and lithium - ion copper foil processing fees are stable at a low level [60][62]. - **Raw Material Inventory**: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remains at a low level. The raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises is at a neutral - to - low level, and that of copper tube enterprises is at a historically low level [63]. - **Finished Product Inventory**: The finished product inventory of copper rod enterprises has rebounded, and the finished product inventory of wire and cable has increased. The finished product inventory of copper tube enterprises is at a relatively low level [66]. 3.4 Consumption End - **Apparent Consumption**: The apparent copper consumption is good, and power grid investment remains an important support. The actual copper consumption from January to October increased by 8.36% year - on - year, and the apparent consumption increased by 7.00% year - on - year. The power grid investment growth rate has slowed down [71][73]. - **Sector - Specific Consumption**: Air - conditioner production decreased in November, with a year - on - year decline of 35.70%. New - energy vehicle production is at a historically high level, with a year - on - year increase of 20.05% in November [74].