每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：请问德阿项目进展咋样，今年可以达产吗？ 川能动力（000155.SZ）11月28日在投资者互动平台表示，德阿锂业3万吨/年锂盐项目于2025年7月31日 顺利产出合格电池级锂盐产品，目前碳酸锂装置运行状况良好，为项目全面达标达产奠定了基础。 （记者 王瀚黎） ...

Company Overview - Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group is a leading manufacturer of lithium salt products, particularly battery-grade lithium hydroxide, with industry-leading production technology and equipment [3][4] - The company is also a prominent player in the civil explosives industry, ranking fourth in production value, with electronic detonators being the top-selling product for several consecutive years [4] Lithium Business Market Position - The company has established long-term agreements with major clients, including international firms like TESLA, LGES, and Panasonic, as well as domestic leaders such as CATL and Xiamen Tungsten [5] - In the first half of 2025, revenue from top lithium business clients accounted for over 90% of total sales [5] Production Capacity - Current comprehensive lithium salt production capacity stands at 99,000 tons, with an additional 30,000 tons of high-grade lithium salt production line under construction, expected to be operational by the end of 2025 [6] Resource Security - The company has developed a diversified lithium resource security system, including self-controlled and purchased mines, with a processing capacity of 2.3 million tons of raw ore annually from its Kamativi lithium mine in Zimbabwe [7] - Long-term agreements for lithium ore supply have been established with sources in Australia, Africa, and Brazil, ensuring sufficient resources for production needs [7] Future Resource Strategy - The company aims to enhance its self-sufficiency in lithium resources and is actively exploring high-quality lithium resources both domestically and internationally [8] Solid-State Battery Development - Significant progress has been made in the development of solid-state battery materials, particularly in the synthesis of lithium sulfide, achieving industry-leading specifications with a purity of no less than 99.99% [9] - The company plans to initiate customer sample testing within the year and is working on the construction of a pilot production line for lithium sulfide by 2026 [9]

Core Insights - The lithium industry is experiencing an improvement in supply-demand dynamics, which is expected to help break the homogenization of competition within the sector [1][2] - The global lithium demand is projected to reach 1.45 million tons of LCE, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 22% due to strong demand from new energy vehicles and energy storage systems [1] - The price of lithium salts has slightly rebounded to 110,000-120,000 yuan per ton, driven by accelerated inventory depletion and marginal supply-demand improvement [1] Industry Trends - The lithium industry is transitioning from a phase of excess supply to one of improved supply-demand balance, with a notable reduction in the degree of oversupply compared to 2024 [1][4] - The industry is witnessing a shift from "quantity" to "quality," with low-cost and innovative players expected to emerge victorious in the upcoming cycle reversal [2] - The focus on technological innovation and global collaboration is emphasized as a means to enhance the resilience and security of the supply chain [1] Technological Developments - Solid-state battery technology is a key topic of discussion, with various experts exploring its technical pathways and commercialization prospects [3] - The core materials for solid-state batteries are categorized into three main types: sulfide-based, oxide-based, and polymer-based electrolytes, with sulfide-based materials being favored for their high energy density and conductivity [3] - Tianqi Lithium is advancing its sulfide lithium pilot line, with an expected annual production capacity of 50 tons set to be completed by the second half of 2026 [3] Market Dynamics - The shift in mindset from "excess thinking" to "supply-demand improvement" among leading industry players marks a fundamental change in the lithium sector [4] - The emphasis on safety stock has increased, transitioning from a de-inventory cycle to a replenishment cycle, which may drive the price of lithium carbonate upward [4]

| | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | | | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | | | | liuhongru@gtht.com | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | 2601合约（收盘价） | | 90,480 | -540 | -4,720 | 3,240 | 10,540 | 5,740 | | 2601合约（成交量） | | 454,612 | -683,212 | -912,307 | -531,957 | -36,308 | 291,552 | | 2601合约（持仓量） | | 365,078 | -46,249 | -197,876 | -169,405 | -54,069 | 237,197 | | 盘 面 | 2605合 ...

2025-11-24，碳酸锂主力合约2601开于91820元/吨，收于90480元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-2.88%。当日 成交量为454612手，持仓量为365078手，前一交易日持仓量411327手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为1690元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单26510手，较上个交易日变化-338手。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-25 市场情绪降温，碳酸锂继续减仓 市场分析 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价89800-94500元/吨，较前一交易日变化-150元/吨，工业级碳酸锂 报价88300-91200元/吨，较前一交易日变化-150元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1130美元/吨，较前一日变化-40美元/吨。据 SMM数据，碳酸锂期货价格区间震荡，主力合约目前处于9万至9.29万元/吨的区间。在此背景下，下游材料厂采 购意愿有所提升，逐步开启补库节奏，带动市场成交氛围趋于活跃。目前，上下游企业正在就明年的长期协议进 行谈判，现阶段主要围绕系数展开博弈。供应端来看，锂盐厂整体开工率保持高位运行，其中锂辉石端与盐湖端 为供应主力。预计11月国内碳酸锂产量可以 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Low inventory and demand resilience support prices, but increased production, expectations of mine复产, and exchange announcements limit the upside potential. Volatility has significantly increased, and the short - term will continue in a long - short game pattern [12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Viewpoint Summary - Low inventory and demand resilience support prices, but production increases, mine复产 expectations, and exchange announcements suppress the upside space, with increased volatility and a short - term long - short game pattern [12]. 3.2 Balance Sheet 3.2.1 Global Balance Sheet - From 2018 - 2025E, global lithium demand has been growing, with the global effective lithium demand total increasing from 25.4 million tons LCE in 2018 to 142.3 million tons LCE in 2025E. The growth rate (yoy) has fluctuated, reaching a maximum of 50% in 2021. Global lithium supply has also been increasing, with the global effective lithium supply total rising from 30.9 million tons LCE in 2018 to 165.0 million tons LCE in 2025E. The growth rate (yoy) was highest at 45% in 2024. The global effective lithium supply has generally been in a state of surplus, with a surplus of 22.7 million tons LCE in 2025E, accounting for 16% of the total demand [15]. 3.2.2 Domestic Balance Sheet - In 2024 - 2025E, the domestic supply and demand of lithium carbonate have been in a state of imbalance. In November 2025E, the total supply of lithium carbonate was estimated to be 115,830 tons, and the total demand was 128,725 tons, with a supply - demand gap of - 12,895 tons. The import volume has been relatively large, and the export volume has been small. The production of lithium carbonate has also been increasing [16]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply and Demand - In October, the estimated total supply of lithium carbonate was 115,895 tons, and the total demand was 124,642 tons, with a supply - demand gap of - 8,747 tons. In November, the estimated total supply was 115,830 tons, and the total demand was 128,725 tons, with a supply - demand gap of - 12,895 tons [10]. - The weekly output was 22,130 tons (a week - on - week increase of 585 tons), and the expectation of the resumption of production at the Jiangxi Ningde mine has increased, leading to a marginal increase in supply pressure [12]. 3.3.2 Inventory - SMM data shows that the monthly inventory in October was 84,234 physical tons, including 53,291 physical tons of downstream inventory and 30,943 physical tons of smelter inventory. This week's SMM weekly inventory was 118,420 physical tons, including 26,104 physical tons of smelter inventory, 44,436 physical tons of cathode factory inventory, and 47,880 physical tons of battery and trader inventory [10][75]. - The weekly inventory was 118,420 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 2,052 tons), with 14 consecutive weeks of de - stocking and a cumulative reduction of 26,000 tons. The inventory days have dropped below 30 days, and the supply - demand structure remains tight [12]. 3.3.3 Price - On November 21, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8.40%, the futures price was 91,020 yuan/ton, and the basis was 1,280 yuan/ton [10][83].

（来源：SMM新能源） 需求端则展现出强劲动力，动力电池领域受益于新能源汽车商用与乘用市场的同步快速增长，而储能市 场延续供需两旺格局，供应持续偏紧，共同为碳酸锂消费提供有力支撑。 市场成交方面，下游材料厂对价格快速上涨持谨慎态度，采购以刚需为主，市场整体成交清淡。目前， 产业链上下游企业正在就明年的长期协议进行谈判，双方主要围绕定价系数展开博弈，这也增加了市场 的观望气氛。 展望后市，下游电芯及正极材料企业在11月的排产计划持续向好，预计碳酸锂库存将继续呈现较大幅度 去化。在供需基本面改善、持续去库预期与市场看涨情绪的共同支撑下，短期碳酸锂价格有望维持偏强 震荡格局。 价格方面，现货市场呈现持续上行态势。SMM电池级碳酸锂均价从周初的8.615万元/吨稳步上涨至9.13 万元/吨，工业级碳酸锂均价也从8.38万元/吨攀升至8.89万元/吨，累计涨幅显著。期货市场主力合约在 周初触及9.52万元/吨的涨停板后继续冲高，一度触及10.25万元/吨关口，盘面看涨情绪积极，资金持续 涌入放大涨幅。 供应方面，锂盐厂整体开工率保持高位运行，其中锂辉石端与盐湖端为供应主力。预计11月国内碳酸锂 产量可以维持10月的生产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in lithium carbonate prices is attributed to multiple factors, including market sentiment, policy adjustments, and demand expectations for the electric vehicle sector [6][7][10]. Market Overview - On November 21, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange hit the limit down, with a drop of 9%, closing at 91,020 yuan/ton [2]. - Spot prices also fell significantly, with battery-grade lithium carbonate at 92,900 yuan/ton, down 2,500 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. Trading Volume and Positioning - Trading volume for the main lithium carbonate futures contract decreased to 1,595,600 lots, while open interest fell by 23,500 lots to 479,600 lots, indicating a strong willingness among investors to liquidate positions at high levels [4]. Policy Adjustments - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced adjustments to trading fees and limits for lithium carbonate futures contracts, effective November 24, 2025, which may have contributed to the cooling market sentiment [5][7]. Supply Side Analysis - The supply of lithium remains tight, with processing fees for lithium salts at low levels (18,000-19,000 yuan/ton) due to fierce competition among producers [8]. - Current production rates are not expected to increase significantly, as lithium salt plants are operating at nearly full capacity [8]. Demand Side Analysis - Demand for lithium carbonate has been strong, particularly in the energy storage sector, with expectations for global energy storage shipments to reach 560 GWh this year and 780 GWh next year, reflecting a 40% year-on-year growth [9]. - However, concerns about potential demand weakness in the first quarter of next year due to earlier demand pull-forward have emerged [10]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations of a potential decline in demand for electric vehicles due to subsidy reductions in China [10]. - Analysts suggest that while the current supply-demand balance is tight, any recovery in production from key lithium mines could lead to a more relaxed supply situation in December [17][18].

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market showed slight recovery on November 20, with the non-ferrous sector opening high and fluctuating, as evidenced by the significant trading volume of the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) which rose by 0.52% and reached a trading volume of over 90 million yuan [1] - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF index components mostly surged, with Zhongkuang Resources rising over 5%, while other stocks like Northern Rare Earth and Huayou Cobalt also saw gains exceeding 1% [3] Group 2: Lithium Market Dynamics - On November 19, lithium carbonate futures prices broke through 100,000 yuan/ton, indicating a clear recovery in spot lithium carbonate prices. Ganfeng Lithium's chairman stated that if demand growth exceeds 30% to 40% next year, prices could potentially exceed 150,000 yuan/ton or even 200,000 yuan/ton due to supply constraints [2] Group 3: Supply Chain and Pricing Trends - The supply chain for non-ferrous metals is facing disruptions, with several large mines experiencing operational issues, which highlights the vulnerability of global non-ferrous resource supply [6] - The copper market is expected to see average prices reach 4.55 USD per pound by 2026 due to supply concerns stemming from accidents at major mines [5] Group 4: Investment Opportunities in Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector has outperformed other industries this year, with a year-to-date increase of 79% for the CITIC non-ferrous metals index, significantly leading other sectors [5] - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted for its high "gold-copper content" of 46%, making it a leading choice among similar investment products [12] Group 5: Future Outlook and Strategic Considerations - The geopolitical landscape and resource security concerns are expected to drive demand for strategic commodities, with a notable increase in green demand for copper and aluminum anticipated by 2030 [8] - The ongoing industrialization in emerging economies and the reshaping of trade patterns are likely to provide new growth opportunities for commodity demand, particularly in countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Qinhai Salt Lake Industry Co., Ltd. has seen a significant increase in its stock price, with a rise of 5.23% to 29.20 CNY per share, and a total market capitalization of 154.514 billion CNY [1] - The company's main business involves the development, production, and sales of potassium fertilizers and lithium salts, with revenue composition being 79.16% from potassium products, 18.32% from lithium products, 2.40% from other sources, and 0.12% from trading [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, Dongcai Fund has a significant position in Salt Lake shares, with its Dongcai CSI Chemical Index Fund A (019589) increasing its holdings by 15.74 thousand shares to a total of 19.69 thousand shares, representing 5.97% of the fund's net value [2] - The fund has achieved a year-to-date return of 32.16%, ranking 1367 out of 4208 in its category, and a one-year return of 24.8%, ranking 1662 out of 3971 [2] Group 3 - The fund manager of Dongcai CSI Chemical Index Fund A is Yao Nanyan, who has been in the position for 5 years and 249 days, with the fund's total asset size at 5.119 billion CNY [3] - During Yao Nanyan's tenure, the best fund return was 119.35%, while the worst return was -57.11% [3]