Core Viewpoint - After hitting a low in profit growth in the first quarter, Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792.SZ) has begun to release its performance on a quarterly basis, with significant profit increases expected in the upcoming quarters [1][3]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 4.3 billion to 4.8 billion yuan for the first three quarters, with the third quarter expected to yield 1.8 billion to 2.2 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 93.77% to 136.83% [3][4]. - Quarterly net profits for the first three quarters are reported as 1.145 billion yuan, 1.375 billion yuan, and an estimated 1.8 billion to 2.2 billion yuan [8]. Market Dynamics - The price of potassium fertilizer, the company's main product, has been rising due to supply constraints from Russia and Belarus, coupled with seasonal demand increases in major agricultural regions [7]. - The ex-factory price of potassium chloride (60% powder) in Qinghai is reported to have risen from 2,550 yuan/ton at the end of 2024 to 3,200 yuan/ton in mid-July, stabilizing around 3,100 yuan/ton since then [7]. Sales and Production Capacity - The company has a current production capacity of 5 million tons of potassium chloride per year, with sales in the first three quarters totaling 2.86 million tons, indicating potential for increased sales in the fourth quarter [11]. - Forecasts suggest that fourth-quarter potassium chloride sales could range from 1.64 million to 2.14 million tons, a significant increase from 1.08 million tons in the third quarter [11]. Lithium Production - The company recently launched a new integrated lithium salt project with a capacity of 40,000 tons per year, which is expected to produce 3,000 tons of lithium carbonate this year [12][13]. - The new lithium capacity is fully owned by the company, allowing it to retain all profits generated from this production [13]. Future Outlook - The overall profit growth trend is expected to continue into the fourth quarter, supported by favorable potassium prices and potential increases in sales volume [9][10]. - The lithium market is anticipated to recover, with historical price fluctuations indicating significant potential for profit increases in the future [14].

Group 1: Report Summary Investment Ratings - The report does not provide industry investment ratings. Core Views - **Carbonate Lithium**: The market is currently experiencing strong supply and demand. However, after the holiday, as the downstream restocking pace slows, there is a risk of price decline. The market is affected by factors such as new production line launches, downstream psychological price expectations, and inventory levels [2][5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The short - term supply and demand situation is acceptable, but there is uncertainty in the future. The market is influenced by factors like the upcoming dry season in the southwest, production increase expectations in Xinjiang, and the "production - limiting and sales - controlling" plan in the polysilicon industry [6]. - **Polysilicon**: The fundamentals are weak. Despite rumors of production cuts, companies have not yet taken action, leading to inventory accumulation. The market is also affected by policy expectations and downstream demand weakening [8]. Trading Strategies - **Carbonate Lithium**: Upstream companies should seize opportunities to sell and hedge when prices rise, while downstream cathode material enterprises should focus on low - price stockpiling or buying hedges. The support level for the main contract is 68,000 - 70,000 yuan, and the resistance level is 75,000 - 76,000 yuan [5][14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Adopt an interval trading strategy. The support interval is 8,200 - 8,300 yuan, and the resistance interval is 9,200 - 9,300 yuan. In the face of increased overseas risks and macro - factor disturbances, investors should manage risks and trade with light positions [7][14]. - **Polysilicon**: Consider short - selling on rebounds. The support interval for the main contract is 47,000 - 48,000 yuan, and the resistance interval is 52,000 - 53,000 yuan [8]. Group 2: First Part - Spot Prices 1. Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Carbonate Lithium 11**: The market logic is strong supply and demand with a weakening atmosphere. The support is 68,000 - 70,000 yuan, the pressure is 75,000 - 76,000 yuan, the market is expected to decline in a volatile manner. Upstream companies should sell and hedge when prices rise, and downstream cathode material enterprises should focus on low - price stockpiling or buying hedges [14]. - **Industrial Silicon 11**: Short - term supply and demand are acceptable, but there is high uncertainty in the future. The support is 8,200 - 8,300 yuan, the pressure is 9,200 - 9,300 yuan, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range. Adopt an interval trading strategy [14]. - **Polysilicon 11**: The weakening trend at the terminal may gradually spread upstream. The support is 47,000 - 48,000 yuan, the pressure is 52,000 - 53,000 yuan, the market is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [14]. - **Arbitrage Recommendation**: There are currently no good arbitrage opportunities [14]. 2. Futures and Spot Price Changes - **Carbonate Lithium**: The closing price is 72,280 yuan, with a decline of 0.63%. The trading volume is 282,178, the open interest is 207,463, with a decrease of 14,456 compared to the previous period, and the number of warehouse receipts is 36,718 [15]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The closing price is 8,805 yuan, with an increase of 1.38%. The trading volume is 241,553, the open interest is 165,722, with a decrease of 1,313 compared to the previous period, and the number of warehouse receipts is 50,854 [15]. - **Polysilicon**: The closing price is 48,740 yuan, with a decline of 2.35%. The trading volume is 246,976, the open interest is 87,665, with a decrease of 3,344 compared to the previous period, and the number of warehouse receipts is 7,900 [15]. Group 3: Second Part - Fundamental Situation 1. Carbonate Lithium Fundamental Data (1) Production and Inventory - The report includes figures on monthly production capacity, device operating rate, monthly output, and monthly inventory of carbonate lithium, as well as inventory in smelters and downstream [22][24]. (2) Downstream Situation - Figures on the production capacity, device operating rate of lithium iron phosphate, monthly operating rate of SMM ternary materials, and monthly output of lithium hexafluorophosphate are presented [26][28]. 2. Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data (1) Production and Inventory - Figures on the sample operating rate of main production areas, weekly output of main production areas, weekly inventory of delivery warehouses in various regions, and weekly inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang and Sichuan are provided [32][34]. (2) Downstream Situation - Figures on the monthly output of China's organic silicon DMC and the operating rate of aluminum alloy are shown [36]. 3. Polysilicon Fundamental Data (1) Production and Inventory - Figures on the total inventory and monthly output of polysilicon in China are included [40][41]. (2) Downstream Situation - Figures on the monthly output of silicon wafers and the monthly output of photovoltaic - Chinese components are presented [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Around the National Day holiday, the downstream demand for lithium batteries is strong. In the short term, the supply of domestic lithium carbonate is less than the demand, and the social inventory is continuously decreasing, which supports the bottom price. However, the planned resumption of production at Jianxiaowo and the resolution of the mining license issue at Zangge Lithium Industry suppress the upside potential due to the expected supply increase. Currently, both long and short funds are cautious. The lithium carbonate futures have been oscillating within a narrow range for three weeks, and the time for the market to choose a direction may be approaching. It is recommended to pay attention to the sustainability of resource - end supply, the realization of strong demand expectations, and the atmosphere in the equity market [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Prices**: On October 10, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index reported 73,011 yuan in the morning, down 5.3% from early September, with the average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate at 73,250 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2511 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 72,740 yuan, down 3.73% from early September [12]. - **Supply**: On October 9, the weekly domestic lithium carbonate production was 20,635 tons, a 0.6% increase from the previous week, reaching a new high. In September 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, a 2.4% increase from the previous month and a 51.7% increase year - on - year, with a cumulative 41.7% increase in the first nine months. In September 2025, Chile exported 15,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a 13% year - on - year and 6% month - on - month decrease. Among them, 11,100 tons were exported to China, a 14% month - on - month decrease. From January to September 2025, Chile exported a total of 164,700 tons of lithium carbonate, an 8.5% year - on - year decrease, and 120,900 tons were exported to China, a 17% year - on - year decrease. The export volume from South America decreased from September to October, alleviating the domestic import pressure [12]. - **Demand**: According to the Passenger Car Association, from September 1 to 27, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.039 million, a 9% increase compared to the same period in September last year and a 17% increase from the previous month. The new energy retail penetration rate of passenger vehicles was 58.5%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 8.609 million, a 24% year - on - year increase. The "two new" policies in various regions from September to December 2024 significantly boosted car sales. It is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of domestic cars will slow down due to the high base. The traditional peak season for battery materials from September to October will drive the continued growth of lithium carbonate demand [12]. - **Inventory**: On October 9, the weekly domestic lithium carbonate inventory was reported at 134,801 tons, a decrease of 2,024 tons (1.5%) from the previous week. On the same day, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 42,379 tons [12]. - **Cost**: On October 10, the quoted price of SMM's Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 815 - 840 US dollars per ton, a 0.9% decrease from before the holiday. The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines has started to ease recently. The lithium concentrate previously held back by Western Australian mining companies will be released, and it is expected that subsequent lithium ore imports will increase significantly [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Prices**: On October 10, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index reported 73,011 yuan in the morning, down 5.3% from early September, with the average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate at 73,250 yuan. The closing price of LC2511 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 72,740 yuan, down 3.73% from early September [20]. - **Basis and Position**: The average discount in the standard electric carbon trading market on the exchange is about - 200 yuan. The net short position of the main contract of lithium carbonate is about 125,000 lots [23]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 yuan, and the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is 70 yuan [27]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Domestic Production**: On October 9, the weekly domestic lithium carbonate production was 20,635 tons, a 0.6% increase from the previous week, reaching a new high. In September 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, a 2.4% increase from the previous month, a 51.7% increase year - on - year, and a cumulative 41.7% increase in the first nine months [32]. - **Production by Raw Material**: In September, the production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene was 55,950 tons, a 4.9% increase from the previous month and a 98.8% increase year - on - year, with a cumulative 74.7% increase in the first nine months; the production from lithium mica was 11,580 tons, a 15.5% decrease from the previous month, with a cumulative 16.0% increase in the first nine months; the production from salt lakes decreased by 9.5% to 11,960 tons, with a cumulative 9.1% increase in the first nine months. Some salt lakes reduced or stopped production, and the production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreased year - on - year during the peak season. Subsequently, Zangge Lithium Industry will resume production, and a new project of Salt Lake Co., Ltd. will be put into operation, so the reduction during the traditional off - season will be limited; the production from the recycling end was 7,770 tons, a 6.6% increase from the previous month, with a cumulative 22.9% increase in the first nine months [35][38]. - **Imports**: In August 2025, China imported 21,845 tons of lithium carbonate, a 57.8% increase from the previous month and a 23.5% increase year - on - year. Among them, 15,608 tons were imported from Chile and 4,253 tons from Argentina. From January to July, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was about 153,000 tons, a 3.5% increase year - on - year. In August 2025, Chile exported 16,903 tons of lithium carbonate, a 19.2% decrease from the previous month. Among them, 12,982 tons were exported to China, a 4.8% decrease from the previous month and a 6.9% increase year - on - year. It is expected that the domestic imports in September will decrease month - on - month [41]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: The battery sector dominates lithium demand. In 2024, it accounted for 87% of global consumption. The main growth point of future lithium salt consumption still depends on the growth of the lithium - battery industry, while the traditional application areas have limited and weak growth. The proportion of lithium used in ceramic glass, lubricants, flux powders, air - conditioning, and medicine is only 5% [45]. - **New Energy Vehicle Sales**: In August 2025, global new energy vehicle sales were about 1.7 million, with a cumulative 23.7% increase from January to August year - on - year. From September 1 to 27, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.039 million, a 9% increase compared to the same period in September last year and a 17% increase from the previous month, with a new energy retail penetration rate of 58.5%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 8.609 million, a 24% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the total sales of new energy vehicles in Europe were 2.324 million, a 26.7% increase year - on - year, and in the United States were 1.063 million, an 8.1% increase year - on - year [48][51]. - **Battery Production**: In August, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 139.6 GWh, a 4.4% increase from the previous month and a 37.3% increase year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative production was 970.7 GWh, a 54.3% increase year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative production of domestic lithium iron phosphate increased by 46.2% year - on - year, and the production of domestic ternary materials increased by 13.1% year - on - year. The traditional peak season for battery materials from September to October will drive the continued growth of lithium carbonate demand [53][56]. 3.5 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: On October 9, the weekly domestic lithium carbonate inventory was reported at 134,801 tons, a decrease of 2,024 tons (1.5%) from the previous week. The registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 42,379 tons [63]. - **Other Inventory Indicators**: The inventory cycle of cathode materials is about one week. The sales - to - inventory ratio of power batteries is at a recent median, and the inventory of energy - storage batteries is at a recent low due to export rush [66]. 3.6 Cost Side - **Lithium Concentrate Price**: On October 10, the quoted price of SMM's Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 815 - 840 US dollars per ton, a 0.9% decrease from before the holiday [73]. - **Lithium Concentrate Imports**: In August, domestic lithium concentrate imports were 471,000 tons, a 4.0% decrease year - on - year and an 18.3% decrease from the previous month. From January to August, domestic lithium concentrate imports were 3.85 million tons, the same as the previous year. In August, the lithium concentrate from Australia decreased by 50% month - on - month, and that from Africa increased by 82.2% month - on - month. From January to August, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 3.4% year - on - year, and that from Africa decreased by 8.8% year - on - year (a 13.7% decrease in the first seven months). The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines has started to ease recently. The lithium concentrate previously held back by Western Australian mining companies will be released, and it is expected that subsequent lithium ore imports will increase significantly [76].

Group 1 - The company, Rongjie Co., has addressed concerns regarding competition in the lithium salt business with its controlling shareholder by implementing a entrusted operation model [2] - The company has provided details on the resolution plan for the competition issue in its announcement dated July 22, 2022, and in its periodic reports [2] - The company commits to strictly adhere to legal regulations and fulfill information disclosure obligations in the event of any merger or acquisition activities [2]

2025 年 10 月 9 日 碳酸锂：假期供需持稳，区间震荡延续 | | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | | | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | | | | liuhongru@gtht.com | | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | | | 2511合约（收盘价） | 72,800 | -1,120 | -860 | -380 | -4,380 | 10,720 | | | | 2511合约（成交量） | 317,458 | -148,133 | -180,399 | -182,809 | -172,600 | 280,176 | | | | 2511合约（持仓量） | 231,964 | -19,785 ...

Core Viewpoint - Salt Lake Co., Ltd. is entering a pivotal year in 2025, aiming to integrate deeply into the China Minmetals system and the national salt lake strategy, with a focus on becoming a world-class salt lake industry leader [2] Group 1: Company Strategy and Goals - The company plans to enhance its full industry chain layout and resource integration, targeting significant expansions in potassium and lithium resource production [2] - By 2030, the company aims to achieve an annual production capacity of 10 million tons of potassium fertilizer, 200,000 tons of lithium salt, and over 30,000 tons of magnesium and magnesium-based materials [2] - The strategic vision includes establishing a world-class salt lake industry base, emphasizing food security, renewable energy stability, and high-end lightweight metal materials [2] Group 2: Project Developments - The company has nearly completed its 40,000 tons/year integrated lithium salt project, entering the trial production phase with qualified battery-grade lithium carbonate products [3] - Current lithium salt production capacity stands at 80,000 tons/year, with plans to further expand product offerings and enhance value [3][4] - The project has optimized its budget from 7.099 billion yuan to 6.083 billion yuan, saving approximately 1 billion yuan, reflecting a total investment optimization rate of about 14.58% [3] Group 3: Production and Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, the company produced 20,000 tons of lithium carbonate, with sales of 20,600 tons, generating revenue of 1.242 billion yuan [4] - Despite global lithium price fluctuations, the company maintained a gross margin of 49.96% for lithium salt products in the first half of the year [4] - The estimated cost of lithium carbonate production for 2024 is 1.516 billion yuan, translating to approximately 36,500 yuan per ton, with projected prices for 2025 ranging between 60,000 yuan and 80,000 yuan per ton [4] Group 4: Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The scaling of production capacity is expected to solidify the company's leading position in domestic brine lithium extraction and enhance its pricing power in the market [5] - The company aims to leverage the integrated operational advantages of China Minmetals and its strong technological innovation capabilities to drive the salt lake industry towards high-end, green, and intelligent transformation [5]

News Focus - The National Development and Reform Commission is soliciting public opinions on the "Standards for Determining Major Electrical Accident Hazards and Governance Supervision Management Regulations" to enhance the identification and management of major electrical accident hazards [2] - Six departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, released a plan indicating that the mechanical industry is expected to maintain a stable and positive trend from 2025 to 2026, with an average annual revenue growth rate of around 3.5%, aiming to exceed 10 trillion yuan [2] Domestic News - China has built the world's largest water conservancy infrastructure system, with 172 major water conservancy projects initiated since the 14th Five-Year Plan, including 95,000 reservoirs and 200 large and medium-sized water diversion projects [3] - A new large-scale renewable energy base in Inner Mongolia has commenced construction, with a total investment of 98.8 billion yuan, planning to build 8 million kilowatts of photovoltaic and 4 million kilowatts of wind power [3] Infrastructure Developments - The second phase of the Qinghai-Tibet DC expansion project has officially commenced operation, doubling the transmission capacity between Qinghai and Tibet to 1.2 million kilowatts, which is significant for enhancing power supply security in Tibet [4] - The Yunnan Central Water Diversion Project has achieved a breakthrough with the successful construction of the Qujiang siphon project, which is part of the largest water diversion project under construction in China [4] Corporate News - China Salt Lake Industrial Group has launched a 40,000-ton lithium salt project and a 20,000-ton lithium carbonate project in Qinghai, promoting technological upgrades in the lithium salt industry [8] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation has made significant discoveries in the Bohai Bay Basin, drilling a high-yield oil and gas well with a daily output of approximately 500 tons of crude oil and 20,000 cubic meters of natural gas [8]

Core Viewpoint - Salt Lake Co. has officially entered the commissioning phase of its 40,000 tons/year integrated lithium salt project, successfully producing qualified battery-grade lithium carbonate products, marking a significant step in its strategy to expand lithium production as part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" for ecological salt lake industry development [2] Group 1 - The 40,000 tons/year integrated lithium salt project is a key initiative to enhance the company's production capacity and market competitiveness in the lithium salt sector [2] - As of the announcement date, the project is nearly completed, with key devices such as the lithium adsorption device successfully producing qualified liquid, and the nanofiltration reverse osmosis system completing membrane installation and water linkage [2] - The successful commissioning of this project will further increase the company's production scale in the lithium salt field, enhancing its market competitiveness, profitability, and risk resistance [2] Group 2 - The smooth progress of this project provides core support for the high-quality development of the company's ecological salt lake industry and injects strong momentum for sustainable development [2]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement highlights the commencement of trial production for a 40,000 tons/year integrated lithium salt project by Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co., Ltd, which aims to enhance the company's lithium salt production capacity and market competitiveness [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Project Development - The 40,000 tons/year integrated lithium salt project has been substantially completed, with key components such as the lithium adsorption device successfully producing qualified liquid [1]. - The nanofiltration and reverse osmosis systems have completed membrane installation and water linkage, while core equipment for lithium precipitation and auxiliary projects has undergone individual trial runs [1]. Production Capacity and Market Impact - The trial production phase has officially begun, yielding qualified battery-grade lithium carbonate products [1]. - This project is expected to significantly boost the company's lithium salt production capacity, enhancing its market competitiveness, profitability, and risk resilience [1]. Strategic Importance - The project aligns with the company's "14th Five-Year" ecological salt lake industry development plan, specifically the strategy to expand lithium production [1]. - It is positioned as a core support for the high-quality development of the ecological salt lake industry and contributes to sustainable development in the salt lake sector [1].

Company Developments - Wanda Group and its legal representative Wang Jianlin have recently been subjected to consumption restrictions due to economic disputes involving subsidiary project companies, with ongoing negotiations for resolution [7] - Hugging Face, the world's largest AI open-source community, announced its latest model rankings, with Alibaba's Tongyi models achieving significant recognition, including the newly released Qwen3-Omni model topping the list [7] - Xuancheng Pang Donglai reported sales data indicating that its 2025 sales have reached 17.032 billion yuan, surpassing the total for 2024, despite the founder's intention to limit sales to within 20 billion yuan [7] - Bright Dairy's subsidiary New Light plans to sell its assets in New Zealand's North Island [7] - Salt Lake Co. has commenced trial operations for its integrated lithium salt project with an annual capacity of 40,000 tons [7] Industry Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with eight other departments, issued a "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Nonferrous Metals Industry (2025-2026)," targeting an average annual growth of 5% in added value for the nonferrous metals industry and a 1.5% increase in the production of ten nonferrous metals [3] - The plan emphasizes resource efficiency, high-level application of rare metals, and innovation in advanced materials, including superconductors and liquid metals [3] - The traffic infrastructure investment in China reached 2.26 trillion yuan from January to August, with railways, highways, waterways, and civil aviation investments reported at 504.1 billion yuan, 1.5412 trillion yuan, 143.3 billion yuan, and 70.7 billion yuan respectively [4]