1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are seasonally weak in the short - term, but the logic of positive long - term demand is strengthened. The price is expected to be in a high - level shock, with the upper limit of the price range moving down. The expected positive demand provides support for the lithium salt price [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Price Trends - Lithium carbonate futures contracts saw a high - level correction. The 2601 contract closed at 120,000 yuan/ton, down 7,800 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the 2605 contract closed at 121,580 yuan/ton, down 8,940 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spot price rose 6,600 yuan/ton week - on - week to 118,500 yuan/ton. The SMM futures - spot basis (2601 contract) rose 14,400 yuan/ton to - 1,500 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader premium/discount quote was - 1,740 yuan/ton, strengthening 290 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 2601 - 2605 contract spread was - 1,580 yuan/ton, strengthening 1,140 yuan/ton month - on - month [1] 3.2 Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Policy**: In 2026, the car trade - in policy was issued. For scrapping old cars and buying new energy vehicles, a subsidy of 12% of the new car's sales price is given, with a maximum of 20,000 yuan; for replacing with new energy vehicles, an 8% subsidy of the new car's sales price is given, with a maximum of 15,000 yuan [2] - **Supply**: The domestic weekly lithium carbonate production was 22,420 tons, a slight increase of 259 tons from last week. In terms of raw materials, the spot inventory of lithium ore has arrived at ports one after another, and the spot inventory at ports of traders has increased slightly [2] - **Demand**: Recently, many cathode material manufacturers have announced maintenance. If the maintenance is carried out as planned, the production of lithium iron phosphate cathodes in January will decrease by 13.2% month - on - month, and that of ternary cathodes will decrease slightly by 1.3% month - on - month; the production of lithium iron phosphate cells will decrease by 4.8% month - on - month, and that of ternary cells will decrease by 9% month - on - month. At the terminal, from December 1 - 28, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market reached 1.192 million, a year - on - year increase of 5% and a month - on - month increase of 1%; from December 22 - 28, the energy storage winning bids (excluding centralized procurement) were 13.7GWh, a year - on - year increase of 76% and a month - on - month increase of 30% [2] - **Inventory**: This week, the lithium carbonate inventory was 109,605 tons, a decrease of 168 tons from last week. The inventories of upstream and downstream are still decreasing, and downstream has no restocking demand. This week, 2,420 new futures warehouse receipts were registered, with a total of 20,281 lots [2] 3.3 Future Market Views - The weakening signs of the fundamentals in the off - season are gradually emerging. The weekly inventory reduction speed has significantly slowed down, the number of cathode maintenance enterprises has increased, overseas ores have arrived at ports one after another, the overall supply remains at a high level, and the upward price space is limited. On the demand side, although the subsidy for mid - and low - end models in the trade - in policy has decreased, the implementation time is earlier than last year, and the market's previous pessimistic expectations for the power sector have been falsified. The energy storage shows a positive trend from the winning bid situation to the year - end rush installation, and the positive expectation logic provides strong support for the lithium salt price [3] 3.4 Investment Strategies - **Unilateral**: High - level shock, with the upper limit of the price range moving down. The price of the futures main contract is expected to operate in the range of 115,000 - 135,000 yuan/ton [4] - **Inter - period**: No recommendation [4] - **Hedging**: Upstream enterprises should choose the opportunity to hedge at high levels to lock in off - season profits [4]

以下文章来源于华夏能源网 ，作者www.hxny.com 华夏能源网 . 能源产业与财经信息服务平台 导语：四家盐湖提锂巨头中，只有西藏矿业由盈利转亏损。 "请董秘转告蔡方伟董事长……希望西藏矿业新领导在 2025 年仅有的半个月时间里收好关、起 好步，做好公司市值管理，别一上任就让西藏矿业股票 ST ……" 近日， 蔡方伟 刚刚当选西藏矿业（ SZ ： 000762 ） 非独立董事，拟接替辞任的董事长张金 涛， 有股民在投资者平台如是表示。 2025 年下半年以来，碳酸锂价格暴涨，多数锂盐厂商或扭亏为盈，或实现正向增长，而西藏矿 业的亏损却持续扩大。今年前三季度，西藏矿业实现营业收入仅 2.03 亿元，归母净利润 -721.74 万元，扣非净利润 -1948.93 万元。 根据规定，如果 A 股主板上市公司最近一个会计年度的净利润为负，且营业收入低于 3 亿元门 槛， 可能被实施退市风险警示 。西藏矿业岌岌可危。 但西藏矿业的麻烦远不止于此。 12 月 25 日，在挂牌价格打了七折的情况下，西藏矿业仍没有 转让出子公司白银扎布耶锂业有限公司（以下简称"白银扎布耶"）。 如何让西藏矿业实现扭亏为盈，避免被 S ...

Core Viewpoint - Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Salt Lake Co.") has successfully launched its 40,000-ton lithium salt integrated project, achieving production efficiency and cost advantages, while maintaining a positive outlook on the long-term development of the lithium carbonate industry driven by strong demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Project Development and Performance - The 40,000-ton lithium salt integrated project was officially put into production on September 28, 2025, achieving "production immediately upon commissioning" and meeting annual operational targets [1]. - The project employs advanced technology, including "continuous ion exchange moving bed + membrane coupling," which enhances the industry's high-end, intelligent, and green transformation [1]. - The production cost of lithium carbonate has significantly decreased compared to budget estimates, breaking through the industry's long-standing "high consumption and low efficiency" bottleneck, with product purity consistently above 99.7% [1]. Group 2: Industry Outlook and Competitive Position - The company holds a strong optimistic view on the long-term prospects of the lithium carbonate industry, driven by the continuous expansion of the electric vehicle market and the growth of the energy storage sector [2]. - Salt Lake Co. has established a leading position in production costs within the industry, supported by its long-term technological accumulation and process iteration advantages [2]. - The company plans to enhance its core competitiveness through product quality upgrades and meticulous cost control, implementing an "Amoeba" management approach to ensure comprehensive cost management across all business segments [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the lithium carbonate market will experience intensified high - level fluctuations under the divergence between sentiment and fundamentals, and its upward space may be limited by industrial hedging pressure and inventory verification. The core contradiction lies in the game between short - term bullish factors on the supply side (mine policy disturbances and seasonal production reduction expectations of salt lakes) and long - term pressure on the demand side (slowing growth of power batteries). Although news stimuli have pushed prices up rapidly, factors such as high - level futures premium, deteriorating production profits, and inventory accumulation in some sectors may restrict the continuous upward movement of prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Salt Market Conditions - **Carbonate Lithium Futures and Spot**: The weekly price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract rose 14.0% to 111,400 yuan/ton, with a maximum intraday of 113,500 yuan/ton. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased 7.57% to 103,000 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose 7.63% to 101,550 yuan/ton. The futures premium structure was significant, and the basis widened 326.4% to - 8,400 yuan/ton [2][5] - **Lithium Hydroxide Spot**: The spot prices of different types of lithium hydroxide all increased. The price of lithium hydroxide (electric carbon - coarse particles) rose 5.33% to 88,900 yuan/ton, (electric carbon - fine powder) increased 5.02% to 94,100 yuan/ton, and (industrial carbon) went up 5.69% to 83,600 yuan/ton [5] 3.2 Lithium Salt Fundamentals Supply - **Production Capacity Utilization**: The domestic lithium carbonate production capacity utilization rate remained at a high level of 83.52%, while the lithium hydroxide production capacity utilization rate decreased 2.44% to 40.0% [2] - **Transportation Cost**: The freight of some African lithium ore routes decreased. For example, the container freight from Nigeria dropped 16.67% [2][28] Demand - Demand showed structural differentiation. Energy storage cell production remained high, supporting demand, but the expected growth rate of power battery demand slowed down, and new energy vehicle sales declined month - on - month [2] Inventory - The total exchange warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate increased 3.06% to 15,511 lots. The warehouse receipts of some delivery warehouses, such as Jiangsu Benniu Port, increased 80.0%. The lithium ore inventory of port traders increased 24.76% to 131,000 tons [2][41] Cost and Profit - The production cost of externally purchased lithium concentrate increased 4.79% to 110,000 yuan/ton, and the cost of externally purchased lithium mica rose 4.31% to 113,714 yuan/ton. The production profit deteriorated, and the loss of externally purchased concentrate increased 24.08% to - 6,999.9 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Lithium - Battery Fundamentals - **Positive Electrode Materials**: The report includes sections on the market conditions, production, and consumption of positive electrode materials, but specific data is not detailed in the content - **Electrolyte**: The report mentions electrolyte price and production, but specific data is not provided - **Lithium - Battery Recycling**: The report has a section on lithium - battery recycling, but specific content is not detailed - **New Energy Vehicles**: The report includes new energy vehicle production, sales, and other important data, but specific details are not provided

Report Overview - Report Date: December 28, 2025 - Report Title: Lithium Carbonate: Basis Deviation to be Corrected, Cathode Plants Initiate Maintenance - Analysts: Shao Wanyi, Liu Hongru 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - This week, lithium carbonate futures contracts rose significantly. The 2601 contract closed at 127,800 yuan/ton, up 18,080 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the 2605 contract closed at 130,520 yuan/ton, up 19,120 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price rose 14,250 yuan/ton to 111,900 yuan/ton. The SMM futures-spot basis (2601 contract) fell 3,830 yuan/ton to -15,900 yuan/ton [2]. - In terms of supply and demand fundamentals, the resumption of production of large mines is postponed again. Overseas shipments have increased, but short-term production elasticity is limited. Many cathode material manufacturers will conduct maintenance at the end of December or early January, and the off-season has arrived as expected. Terminal performance is divided, with the domestic energy storage winning bid scale in the first three weeks of December increasing by 74% year-on-year, while the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles increased by only 1% year-on-year [3]. - In terms of inventory, this week, lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 652 tons, with the destocking speed slowing down by 392 tons compared with last week. The downstream inventory destocking speed remained high, and the midstream inventory accumulation speed increased. This week, 2,350 new futures warehouse receipts were registered, with a total of 17,861 lots [4]. - Regarding the future market, the off-season demand is under pressure, but optimistic expectations are continuously strengthening. There are large differences between bulls and bears. Bears believe that the inventory pressure will gradually increase, while bulls believe that the cathode processing fee is expected to rise through negotiation, which is beneficial to the further increase of upstream lithium salts [5]. - For unilateral trading, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Investors should be cautious when chasing high prices. The price range of the futures main contract is expected to be between 120,000 and 140,000 yuan/ton. For inter - period trading, near - month positions are restricted, and the far - end price is relatively strong. For hedging, due to large market fluctuations, it is recommended that both upstream and downstream appropriately reduce the hedging ratio [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - The report provides charts of the price difference between lithium carbonate spot and futures, and the inter - period price difference of lithium carbonate futures, sourced from Mysteel, SMM, Flush, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [9]. 3.2 Lithium Salt Upstream Supply - Side (Lithium Mines) - Charts show the processing profit of spodumene concentrate in the spot and futures markets, the average price trend of spodumene concentrate, the monthly import volume and price of lithium concentrate, and the monthly import volume and price of Australian lithium concentrate, with data sources including Mysteel, SMM, Flush, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [9][10][11]. 3.3 Lithium Salt Mid - Stream Consumption - Side (Lithium Salt Products) - Multiple charts display the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the East China region, the price of domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, the price trends of domestic battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the processing cost of converting industrial - grade lithium carbonate to battery - grade lithium carbonate and the futures discount cost, the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in China, Japan, and South Korea and the domestic price, the monthly export volume of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, the monthly production of domestic lithium carbonate, the monthly production of domestic battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the monthly production of domestic lithium carbonate by region, the weekly production and weekly operating rate of domestic lithium carbonate, the monthly operating rate of domestic lithium carbonate, the monthly import and export volume of lithium carbonate, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile and Argentina, the monthly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate, and the monthly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate downstream and smelters, all sourced from Mysteel, SMM, Flush, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [11][13][14][15][16]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Downstream Consumption - Side (Lithium Batteries and Materials) - Charts present the monthly production and monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate, the monthly production and monthly operating rate of ternary materials, the monthly production and monthly operating rate of various ternary materials, the import and export volume of ternary materials, the installed capacity of Chinese lithium batteries, and the production of various domestic power lithium batteries, with data from Mysteel, SMM, Flush, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - Jiangte Electric, a lithium salt producer, has incurred significant losses due to short-selling lithium carbonate futures, as prices surged past 130,000 RMB per ton, leading to a loss exceeding 10 million RMB in just 25 days [1][2][4]. Group 1: Losses and Financial Impact - The company's confirmed and floating losses from commodity futures and derivatives trading have reached over 10% of its audited net profit from the previous year, amounting to more than 10 million RMB [4]. - Jiangte Electric's trading activities are aimed at mitigating operational risks from price fluctuations in raw materials and products, but the recent rise in lithium carbonate prices has resulted in substantial losses in its futures account [7]. - The company plans to account for these trading activities according to the relevant accounting standards, with the actual impact on annual profits to be determined by real gains or losses [7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Price Fluctuations - The lithium carbonate market has experienced significant volatility, with prices dropping to below 70,000 RMB per ton before rebounding sharply due to increased demand from energy storage and regulatory changes [12][13]. - By December 26, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures surpassed 130,000 RMB per ton, marking an increase of over 8% and reaching a new high since November 2023 [13]. - The rapid V-shaped recovery in lithium prices caught many short-sellers, including Jiangte Electric, off guard, leading to unexpected financial strain [13]. Group 3: Future Strategies and Business Outlook - Jiangte Electric has prepared for its 2025 hedging activities with a planned guarantee amount not exceeding 300 million RMB, emphasizing a strategy focused on risk mitigation rather than speculative trading [12]. - The company has increased its hedging limit significantly in response to market conditions, from 100 million RMB to 300 million RMB, while also introducing copper futures to hedge against raw material risks [15]. - Despite some hedging success, the company faces ongoing challenges in its core business, with revenue and profit figures indicating a downward trend, including a projected net loss of 1.13 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2025 [17].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The report highlights that domestic discrete device manufacturers, such as Shenzhen Hekaitai, are increasing prices for thick film chip resistors by 8%-20% and semiconductor devices by 5%-20% due to significant rises in global metal raw material prices, particularly copper, silver, palladium, ruthenium, nickel, and tin [2] - The electronic cigarette industry is facing stricter regulations as the National Tobacco Monopoly Administration has proposed a notice to regulate production investments, limiting new projects and capacity increases, which is expected to intensify competition within the industry [2] Group 2: Advanced Manufacturing - Hualian Holdings has acquired a high-quality salt lake resource project in Argentina, with approximately 4.122 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) resources, positioning it among the top tier globally. The project's disclosed production cost is about 38,000 yuan per ton, making it highly competitive [5] - The report notes a shift in the competitive landscape for lithium resources, with salt lake lithium extraction emerging as the most profitable and advantageous method, especially as high-cost resources are phased out [5] Group 3: Consumer Sector - The film market is experiencing a significant recovery, with total box office revenue reaching 51.074 billion yuan as of December 23, 2025, surpassing the same period in 2024. The holiday season is identified as a key growth driver, with a diverse range of films catering to various audience preferences [7] - Several major films are set to release at the end of December 2025, which is expected to further boost box office performance and benefit film production and cinema sectors, highlighting the strategic importance of upcoming releases [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current price is mainly influenced by supply - side interference news, with over - speculation. The inventory depletion speed continues to slow down, and there is a divergence between the futures and spot markets. Short - term price increases are significant, so investors need to be vigilant about the risk of price corrections [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 25, 2025, the main contract 2605 of lithium carbonate opened at 118,740 yuan/ton and closed at 123,520 yuan/ton, with a 0.44% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 924,823 lots, and the open interest was 607,187 lots (647,366 lots the previous day). The current basis is - 16,560 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts on that day was 17,101 lots, unchanged from the previous day. Starting from December 26, 2025, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading rules for 12 lithium carbonate futures contracts [1]. Carbonate Lithium Spot - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 97,800 - 112,000 yuan/ton, a change of 3,400 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 97,500 - 107,000 yuan/ton, also a change of 3,400 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,450 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The actual market transactions show that most upstream lithium salt factories focus on long - term contracts, with few spot transactions. Downstream material factories are cautious about the current high prices, mainly purchasing based on rigid demand and increasing long - term contracts, and adjusting the procurement rhythm according to next month's production schedule. The overall spot market transactions are extremely rare. Hunan Yueneng will conduct maintenance starting from January 1, 2026, which is expected to affect the production of phosphate cathode products by 15,000 - 35,000 tons, corresponding to a lithium carbonate consumption of about 350 - 1,000 tons. The current spot inventory is 109,773 tons, a decrease of 652 tons compared to the previous period. Among them, smelter inventory is 17,851 tons, a decrease of 239 tons; downstream inventory is 39,892 tons, a decrease of 1,593 tons; other inventory is 52,030 tons, an increase of 1,180 tons. The overall inventory is expected to continue to decline in December, but the depletion speed continues to slow down [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range trading, pay attention to the inflection points of consumption and inventory, and sell on rallies for hedging opportunities. Options, inter - period, cross - variety, and spot - futures strategies are not recommended [3][4].

2025 年 12 月 26 日 碳酸锂：正极大厂检修，关注回调风险 | | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | liuhongru@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2601合约（收盘价） | 121,540 | -1,220 | 17,100 | 24,560 | 26,140 | 48,200 | | | | 2601合约（成交量） | 33,379 | 2,991 | -4,252 | -21,819 | -477,900 | -77,381 | | | | 2601合约（持仓量） | 26,492 | -11,509 | -42,377 | -92,245 | -316,707 | -147,383 | | | ...

"做空"本是套期保值的常规动作，却在碳酸锂身上演成了"吞金兽"。今日，江特电机一纸公告震惊市 场：公司用于对冲现货风险的碳酸锂期货空单，因价格持续飙升，已确认及浮亏金额超过1000万元！ 在碳酸锂如此狂飙的行情之下，竟然还敢坚持做空，让我们一起来看看到底是怎么个事儿？ 01 资金狂潮下的价格狂飙 这种狂热背后，是供需格局的实质性收紧。据上海钢联数据，12月国内锂盐厂库存仅剩2.4万吨，社会 库存连续13周下降，累计去库2.2万吨，创期货上市以来新低。与此同时，储能领域需求爆发式增长： 2026年全球储能市场预计维持50%增速，国内12月"动力 + 储能 + 消费"电池排产量达220GWh，环比增 长5.3%，其中储能占比显著提升。供需错配下，碳酸锂价格开启"长周期紧平衡"通道。 12月24日晚间，广期所紧急调整交易规则，将碳酸锂期货LC2601-LC2605合约的最小开仓下单数量从1 手提升至5手，并对非期货公司会员的单日开仓量实施400手限额，试图为过热的市场降温。12月25日， 市场情绪出现分化，早盘，碳酸锂价格一度下探，但尾盘又再度上扬，显示出市场多空双方激烈博弈， 价格波动加剧。 风浪越大鱼越贵，波动 ...