要论2025年"最水逆"的网红零食品牌，良品铺子排第二，恐怕没有牌子敢排第一！ 2000万索赔 "隐情"曝光 12月16日晚间，良品铺子一纸公告，让这场持续半年之久的"控制权之争"再生变数：控股股东宁波汉意被广州轻工再度变更诉讼请求——从继续履行协议 转为立即解除协议，并要求宁波汉意赔付各类损失合计2073.86万元…… 为了让一头雾水的吃瓜群众把这个"瓜"吃明白，照例先来梳理一下时间线： 事件的缘起，良品铺子的控股股东宁波汉意想通过出售股权的方式来化解自身债务，然后在今年5月份，意向"联姻"伙伴广州轻工出现，双方开始挺谈得 来，连《协议书》都愉快签了，约定尽调之后，广州轻工受让宁波汉意持有的良品铺子部分股权，进而投资、控制良品铺子。 按照《协议书》约定，在5月28日之前，广州轻工都拥有优先购买权，并且，如果宁波汉意违约，将支付500万违约金及相关费用，然而这一天来到后，宁 波汉意并未跟广州签工签约，广州轻工督促无果，遂于7月14日对宁波汉意发起诉讼，并申请了财产保全。 据南方财经报道，广州轻工集团已就宁波汉意的恶意违约行为，向广州市中级人民法院提起诉讼及财产保全措施。鉴于良品铺子为上市公司，考虑其正常 经营 ...

竞品动态的"监测仪"让差异化营销更精准。双旦营销同质化严重，想脱颖而出需精准卡位。舆情工具可实时追踪竞品声量、卖点及用户反馈，某洗护品牌通 过对比分析发现，竞品"长效留香"已形成认知壁垒，转而聚焦自身"温和无刺激"优势，结合母婴群体舆情数据定制传播内容，成功开辟细分市场。这种基于 数据的差异化打法，远比盲目跟风更高效。 风险防控的"预警器"是品牌的生命线。双旦物流压力大、促销规则复杂，易引发价格争议、售后投诉等舆情。某零食品牌通过7×24小时监测，在"吃出异 物"的负面帖子发布5分钟内即介入处理，赔偿并公开整改流程，避免危机发酵。舆情系统的分级预警机制，能通过短信、弹窗等方式实时提醒，让品牌 在"黄金4小时"内掌握主动权。 营销效果的"仪表盘"实现动态优化。投放后的数据复盘不再依赖销量单一指标，舆情监测可量化话题热度、情感倾向及传播路径。某饮料品牌发现双旦联名 广告中"童年回忆"关键词互动量最高，立即追加怀旧向内容投放，话题阅读量提升3倍。这种"监测-分析-优化"的闭环，让营销从"广撒网"变为"精准钓"。 双旦营销的胜负，早已取决于数据洞察能力。舆情监测让品牌听见消费者的真实声音，看清竞品的战略布局，守住口碑 ...

Core Insights - Mars Inc. has completed the acquisition of Kellanova, the parent company of Pringles, for a total consideration of $35.9 billion, marking one of the largest deals in the global packaged food sector in the past decade [1][2][10] - This acquisition sets a new record for Mars in terms of merger and acquisition scale, with the deal being finalized after 16 months and requiring approvals from 28 global regulatory bodies [2][11] Financial Overview - The acquisition price of $83.50 per share represents a 44% premium over Kellanova's weighted average stock price over the previous 30 trading days, significantly higher than the industry average [2][11] - Post-acquisition, Mars' snack business revenue is expected to rise to approximately $36 billion, with the combined entity featuring nine brands that each generate over $1 billion in annual sales [3][12] Market Positioning - The merger will create a complementary product portfolio, combining Mars' strengths in sweet snacks with Kellanova's expertise in savory snacks and breakfast foods, enhancing market coverage [3][12] - Following the acquisition, Mars will become the third-largest player in the global snack industry, with a combined market share of 26% alongside PepsiCo and Mondelez [6][15] Business Structure Changes - The acquisition will shift Mars' business structure, with the snack segment's revenue increasing from $17.92 billion (33% of total revenue) to $36 billion (45% of total revenue), while the pet care segment's share will decrease from 60% to approximately 48% [7][16] - The integration of Kellanova will also expand Mars' health and nutrition product offerings, including RXBAR and Nutri-Grain energy bars [4][12] Regional Impact - In China, which accounted for 18% of Mars' 2024 sales, the acquisition will allow for better integration of Kellanova's products into Mars' established distribution network [8][17] - Kellanova's Pringles brand holds a 10% market share in China's snack market, and local production is expected to begin by 2026, potentially reducing prices by 20% [8][17] Integration Challenges - Despite the strategic significance of the acquisition, Kellanova has faced challenges, with a 0.2% year-over-year increase in organic sales and a 4.1% decline in adjusted operating profit in the first three quarters of 2025 [9][18] - Mars plans to increase Kellanova's R&D budget by 30% and retain its core management team to navigate the integration process [9][18]

摘要 对于 2026 年的零食行业，有哪些投资建议？ 展望 2026 年，我们认为零食行业仍然高度分散且消费者需求多样。核心有两 条投资主线：第一条是看好头部零食量贩品牌扩展品类、提升供应链效率，并 积极探索自由品牌带来的店效提升空间。市场对头部品牌的开店空间和同店韧 性仍存在预期差，因此继续推荐万辰集团和鸣鸣很忙；第二条主线是看好魔芋 和燕麦品类的创新空间，这两个品类有望进一步拓宽市场上限。其中浙江受益 受凭借自主自产自研能力及健全供应链体系，有望延续高景气度。此外，应重 点关注卫龙、盐津、西麦等企业的表现。 恰恰食品受瓜子和坚果成本及低价竞争影响，业绩承压；劲仔和甘源侧 重电商和零售渠道，但渠道费用增加抑制利润增长。零食企业业绩分化 明显。 零食量贩双寡头格局确立，很忙侧重开店规模领先，万辰则注重单店模 型盈利能力。截至目前，很忙门店超 2.1 万家，万辰为 1.9 万家，C22 市场份额接近 80%。 市场对头部零食量贩品牌扩展品类、提升供应链效率及自由品牌店效提 升空间存在预期差，推荐关注万辰集团和鸣鸣很忙。 看好魔芋和燕麦品类的创新空间，有望拓宽市场上限。浙江受益凭借自 主自产自研能力及健全供应链体 ...

Summary of the Food and Beverage Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry is entering a pivotal year in 2026, characterized as a "starting point for a big year" with expectations for absolute returns across the sector [2][3] - The industry has seen a decline in valuations to reasonable levels, with performance being the core issue [3] Key Insights and Arguments - **Consumer Demand Trends**: Anticipated L-shaped recovery in consumer demand driven by the repair of household balance sheets and economic structural transformation [3] - **Traditional vs. New Consumption**: Both traditional and new consumption are expected to coexist, with traditional consumption showing signs of bottoming out and potential recovery [2][8] - **Investment Recommendations**: - Prioritize investments in frozen food companies, followed by the liquor sector [5] - Companies like Anjuke, Qianqianwei, and Sanquan in the frozen food sector are expected to optimize competition through B-end transformations [5] - High market share beer companies such as Yanjing and Zhujiang are seen as having good growth potential [5] New Consumption Opportunities - The new consumption sector is expected to benefit from structural dividends, with significant growth potential for companies like New Dairy and Yanjing Zhujiang [4][10] - New channels and product categories are anticipated to drive performance growth in beverages and snacks, even in the current economic environment [6][12] Liquor Industry Insights - The liquor sector, characterized by strong commercial barriers and high inventory accumulation, is expected to see improvements in Q1 2026 as inventory levels decrease [7] - The stability of liquor prices or an L-shaped trend is viewed as an attractive investment opportunity, with companies like Wuliangye, Yanghe, and Moutai being highlighted as good choices [7][9] Market Characteristics and Future Outlook - The future consumer market in China is expected to exhibit three main characteristics: large market size, high innovation in channels and categories, and a trend towards international expansion to address supply-demand imbalances [11] - Structural dividends are anticipated to arise from new channels, new product categories, and new markets [11] Specific Investment Targets - In the snack sector, companies with strong channel adjustment and category expansion capabilities, such as Weilong and Yanjin, are recommended [12] - In the beverage sector, functional drinks and sugar-free tea segments are highlighted, with companies like Dongpeng and Nongfu Spring expected to maintain leading growth [12] Strategic Recommendations - The investment strategy for 2026 emphasizes that the food and beverage sector is likely to rise, with a focus on performance recovery, particularly in the liquor sector [13] - The strategy includes holding traditional consumption while embracing new consumption, indicating a balanced approach to investment [14]

Core Viewpoint - Wancheng Group is changing its name from "Fujian Wancheng Biotechnology Group Co., Ltd." to "Fujian Wancheng Food Group Co., Ltd." to better reflect its business focus and strategic direction as its snack food business has grown significantly [1] Group 1: Company Name Change - The company will retain its stock abbreviation and code despite the name change [1] - The name change aims to clarify the company's industry layout and business characteristics [1] Group 2: Business Focus and Revenue - The revenue from the snack food business has surpassed that of the edible fungus business in recent years [1] - The change in name and business scope is intended to enhance the company's brand effect and advantages [1] Group 3: Business Scope Adjustment - The company plans to add "general cargo warehousing services (excluding projects requiring licensing and approval for hazardous chemicals)" and "information technology consulting services" to its business scope [1] - The adjustments are made based on the company's actual operational needs [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][10]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to see a recovery in consumer scenarios, with a stable price expectation for Moutai [1][3]. - The sector is entering a left-side layout phase, with high-quality companies expected to gain greater growth potential [2][10]. - The report highlights the differentiation in the fundamentals of various categories, with beverages outperforming food and alcohol [2][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Sector Overview - The food and beverage sector experienced a cumulative decline of 1.52% this week, with A-shares down 1.63% and H-shares up 0.07% [1]. - The top five gainers in the food and beverage sector this week were Yanjinpuzi (5.11%), Huikaishan (4.85%), New Dairy (3.22%), Chenguang Biological (3.09%), and Anji Food (3.08%) [1]. 2. Alcohol Sector - In the liquor segment, the report recommends focusing on leading companies like Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Yingjia Gongjiu, while also monitoring the reform pace of Wuliangye and Yanghe [2][10]. - The report notes that the current market is in a left-side layout phase, with positive signals expected from both demand and supply sides [10]. 3. Beverage Sector - The beverage industry is experiencing a sustained boom, with leading companies significantly outperforming the market [14]. - Recommendations include Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage, which are accelerating their national and platform expansion [14]. 4. Food Sector - The snack segment is advised to focus on strong alpha stocks, particularly in the konjac snack category, where leading companies like Weilong and Yanjinpuzi show strong competitive advantages [11][12]. - The restaurant supply chain is showing signs of stabilization, with recommendations for leading companies like Yihai International and Haitian Flavoring [12]. 5. Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Key companies such as Guizhou Moutai, Nongfu Spring, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao are rated as "Outperform the Market" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2025 and 2026 [4][10]. - The report provides detailed earnings forecasts for these companies, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4][15].

食品饮料 2025 年 12 月 14 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《白酒短期批价扰动，西麦新品值得 关注—行业周报》-2025.12.7 《茅台韧性凸显，建议长期配置布局 —行业周报》-2025.11.30 《乳制品供需拐点可期，三大机会驱 动行业成长—行业周报》-2025.11.23 中央经济工作会议积极定调，飞天批价或止跌触底 ——行业周报 张宇光（分析师） 张思敏（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030003 zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525080001 核心观点：政策红利提振消费情绪，贵州茅台加码控价 12 月 8 日-12 月 12 日，食品饮料指数跌幅为 1.6%，一级子行业排名第 21，跑输 沪深 300 约 1.5pct，子行业中其他食品（+0.0%）、乳品（-1.1%）、啤酒（-1.3%） 表现相对领先。本周中央经济工作会议将"坚持内需主导，建设强大 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese snack market is undergoing a significant transformation, shifting from traditional consumption focused on satiety to a new era driven by health, personalization, and emotional value [1][7] - Young consumers, making up over 70% of the market, exhibit a dual focus on "rational health" and "stress relief," indicating a complex consumer behavior that emphasizes snacks as emotional and social facilitators [1][7] Consumer Trends - Key factors influencing snack selection include taste, ingredient quality, and consumption context, with rising interest in low-sugar, low-fat, low-calorie, high-protein, and clean-label products [2][7] - Diverse consumption scenarios have emerged, extending from casual snacking to specific contexts like late-night binge-watching, outdoor camping, and travel gifts, highlighting snacks as solutions for various life moments [2][7] - The demand for snacks designed to alleviate stress and anxiety has surged, with related social media content experiencing significant growth [2][7] Regional and Social Dynamics - Local specialty snacks are revitalizing through cultural recognition and national trends, leveraging traditional craftsmanship and regional flavors, amplified by social media [3][7] - The "social currency" aspect of snacks is increasingly important, with consumers actively engaging in creative consumption methods, DIY snacks, and sharing experiences, transforming consumption into a social activity [3][7] Marketing Strategies - Xiaohongshu (Little Red Book) has emerged as the primary platform for snack brand marketing, showing significant year-on-year growth in commercial posts and user engagement around health and clean ingredients [4][7] - In contrast, Douyin (TikTok) has seen a contraction in snack marketing, focusing more on narrative-driven content and price-oriented promotions, indicating a differentiated marketing ecosystem [4][7] Competitive Landscape - Competition among snack categories is intensifying, with mixed nuts remaining a key focus despite a decline in overall social media engagement, while meat snacks and baked goods are experiencing stable growth [5][7] - Brands that can identify niche demands and create standout products are gaining market traction, exemplified by companies like Wang Xiaolu and Hema, which have successfully launched innovative products [5][7] - The current snack market is characterized by a shift towards consumer-driven, emotional, and social values, necessitating brands to enhance product quality and understand consumer emotional needs [5][7]

Group 1 - Mars has completed the acquisition of Kellanova, the parent company of Pringles, for approximately $35.9 billion (about 253.4 billion RMB), marking the largest food industry acquisition of the year [2][5] - The acquisition signifies the merging of well-known brands, with Mars owning brands like Dove and Snickers, while Kellanova is recognized for Pringles and Kellogg's cereals [2][4] - The deal was in the works for a long time, with regulatory approval received in December, leading to Kellanova's delisting from the New York Stock Exchange [5][6] Group 2 - Pringles, launched in 1968, was the first canned potato chip brand and gained popularity through unique flavors and marketing strategies [4][6] - The brand initially struggled in sales but became a hit in the 1980s after taste adjustments and effective advertising [6] - Kellanova's history dates back to 1894, and it became the second-largest snack company globally after acquiring Pringles from Procter & Gamble for $26.95 billion (about 188 billion RMB) in 2012 [6][7] Group 3 - Mars CEO Paul Wehrrauch described the acquisition as historic, emphasizing the opportunity for innovation and reaching more consumers [7] - Mars is a well-known company with a diverse portfolio, including brands like M&M's and Skittles, and has a history of significant acquisitions [8][9] - The acquisition is expected to boost Mars' snack food business revenue to approximately $36 billion, positioning it as the third-largest player in the global snack industry [9] Group 4 - The article highlights a broader trend of mergers and acquisitions in the consumer sector, with companies like Starbucks and Burger King also engaging in strategic partnerships and sales [10][12] - The competitive landscape in the consumer market is prompting brands to adjust strategies, with many familiar brands choosing to sell parts of their businesses [13] - The food and beverage sector is viewed as resilient and attractive for investment, especially during economic fluctuations, leading to increased merger activity [13]