Market Overview - On January 21, synthetic rubber futures showed a volatile upward trend, with the main contract rising significantly by 2.86% to 11,850.0 yuan/ton [1] - In the Shanghai market, high-grade polybutadiene rubber prices increased by 100-150 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, indicating a tentative rise in pricing [1] - As of January 20, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported a decrease in the inventory of butadiene rubber futures to 24,330 tons, down by 1,700 tons from the previous trading day [1] Institutional Insights - Nanhua Futures noted a decline in butadiene production, with upstream profits expanding. Although polybutadiene production remains high, weak spot prices are compressing profits. Rising overseas butadiene prices provide some support for polybutadiene rubber prices. The market is expected to remain volatile under pressure, with a potential stabilization in the short term, but external macro risks such as tariffs should be monitored [3] - Ruida Futures highlighted that domestic polybutadiene production facilities have seen minimal shutdowns, maintaining high supply levels. Strong demand for butadiene and rumors of export transactions have significantly increased production costs. However, downstream resistance to high prices has led to notable discrepancies in negotiations. Both production and trade inventories have increased, and while production profits are under pressure, there are no signs of supply reductions. The operating rate of domestic tire manufacturers has improved significantly week-on-week, with expectations for stable production schedules [3]

金融业"期证合作"再现大动作！ 1月20日晚间，瑞达期货（002961）发布公告称，公司拟以自有资金5.89亿元购买申港证券合计11.94%的股 权，其中8.11%的股权处于质押状态。 作为国内首家CEPA协议下的合资券商，申港证券此番股权变动不仅意味着瑞达期货向综合性金融集团迈出关 键一步，也映射出当前大金融背景下，期证业务加速融合的新趋势。 瑞达期货大手笔布局券商股权 1月20日，瑞达期货召开第五届董事会第十一次会议，审议通过了《关于对外投资购买股权的议案》。根据议 案内容，公司拟以自有资金5.89亿元，受让申港证券合计5.15亿股股份，占申港证券总股本的11.9351%。 一是向申港证券股东裕承环球市场有限公司（Arta Global Markets Limited）购买其持有的申港证券8.1112%股 权，对应股份数量为3.5亿股，该部分股份目前处于质押状态； 二是向嘉泰新兴资本管理有限公司（JT Capital Management Limited）购买其持有的申港证券3.8239%股权，对 应股份数量为1.65亿股。 瑞达期货在公告中强调，公司与申港证券及其股东不存在关联关系，也不构成《上市公司重 ...

Core Insights - The price of spot gold reached a new historical high, surpassing $4700 per ounce, with spot gold peaking at $4701.48 and COMEX gold at $4707.4 on January 20 [1] - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by over 8%, with significant gains observed as it broke through key levels of $4400, $4500, $4600, and $4700 [2] Gold Market Performance - As of the latest data, the current price of London gold is $4698.775, reflecting an increase of $29.591 or 0.63% year-to-date [2] - COMEX gold is priced at $4706.5, with a year-to-date increase of 8.64% [2] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also surged, with several brands quoting prices above 1450 yuan per gram, including Lao Miao at 1455 yuan and Lao Feng Xiang at 1456 yuan [2][3] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in South America and Europe, are contributing to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4] - Bank of America’s chief investment strategist suggests that the current geopolitical climate is fostering a bull market for gold, despite short-term overbought conditions [4] - The average increase during past gold bull markets has been around 300%, indicating potential for gold prices to exceed $6000 in the long term [4] Investment Sentiment - The recent increase in gold holdings by the largest global gold ETF, SPDR, by over 20 tons indicates renewed interest from trend-following funds [4] - Analysts suggest that while silver may experience higher volatility due to its financial and industrial attributes, gold is expected to maintain a more stable performance as a core safe-haven asset [4]

南华期货（603093）表示，锡价在资金情绪消退及估值过高等利空因素下快速回调，但底部支撑较强， 供给端缅甸复产不及预期，印尼难以保持高位，需求端短期难见负反馈，预计锡价维持高位宽幅震荡。 铜冠金源期货分析称，，市场交投热情降温，同时周度社会库存大幅增加至万吨以上，多头资金持续离 场，锡价大幅调整。不过随着风险集中释放，以及美元承压，锡价在10日均线附近获得弱反弹支撑。当 前基本面逻辑变化不大，原料端供应延续强现实弱预期，继续支撑锡价，但高价负反馈凸显，累库压力 施压锡价。短期锡价走势回归理性，预计高位宽幅震荡，等待更多消息指引。 五矿期货指出，锡供需边际好转，短期累库趋势或对价格持续施压，叠加投机资金退潮，锡价或继续震 荡下跌。操作方面，建议观望为主。国内主力合约参考运行区间：360000-400000元/吨，海外伦锡参考 运行区间：46000-50000美元/吨。 1月20日，国内期市有色金属板块涨跌互现。其中，沪锡期货主力合约开盘报381840.00元/吨，今日盘 中高位震荡运行；截至午间收盘，沪锡主力最高触及404400.00元，下方探低381100.00元，涨幅达 2.26%。 目前来看，沪锡行情呈 ...

2025年期货市场行政执法概况 2025年，涉非法期货业务案件共1件。在该案中，行为人王某于2020年10月至2022年12月，未经国务院 期货监督管理机构核准，向他人提供开设期货子账户等服务，使他人无需在期货公司开立期货账户即可 开展期货交易，向他人收取"保证金"，按照"保证金"一至十倍的比例分配子账户交易额度，通过收取高 于正常期货交易的手续费等方式盈利。厦门证监局认定，王某的行为违反《期货交易管理条例》第十五 条第二款规定和期货和衍生品法第六十三条第三款规定，对其作出罚款25万元的行政处罚。 市场扰乱行为 2025年，期货市场行政执法案件共计194件。其中，行政处罚案件6件，行政监管措施案件188件。 在行政处罚案件中，2件由证监会管辖，4件由证监会派出机构管辖；188件行政监管措施案件均由证监 会派出机构管辖。 根据所采取的不同监管措施，行政监管措施案件可分为：监管谈话案件18件，出具警示函案件117件， 责令改正案件52件，暂停期货经纪业务新开户和新增资产管理业务案件6件，认定为不适当人选案件3 件，责令负有责任的股东转让股权且相关股权转让完成前限制行使股东权利案件1件，责令处分有关人 员案件1件， ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in precious and industrial metal markets, particularly gold and silver, has led to increased interest in copper investments, despite concerns about the legitimacy and risks associated with copper bars as investment products [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold and silver prices have reached new highs, while domestic copper prices have surpassed 100,000 yuan per ton, leading to heightened investor interest in copper [1]. - In Shenzhen, the largest gold and jewelry distribution center in China, merchants have begun offering pure copper 999.9 investment bars, primarily in 1000-gram specifications, priced around 200 yuan each [1][2]. Group 2: Investment Risks - Analysts warn that the current "copper bar craze" is more of a speculative trend rather than a legitimate investment opportunity, with concerns about the lack of standardized recovery channels for copper bars [1][3]. - The comparison of copper bars to precious metals like gold and silver is misleading, as copper is an industrial metal with different pricing dynamics, making the assumption of significant returns unrealistic [2][3]. Group 3: Investment Alternatives - Investors are advised to consider alternative methods for investing in copper, such as copper ETFs, stocks of leading copper mining companies, or direct investments in copper futures and spot markets, which may offer more reliable returns [4]. Group 4: Future Price Outlook - Market sentiment regarding copper prices is mixed, with some analysts predicting short-term corrections due to macroeconomic factors, while others anticipate long-term upward trends driven by demand from sectors like renewable energy and electric vehicles [6][7]. - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its copper price forecast for the first half of 2026, citing tightening inventories outside the U.S., while also warning of potential downward pressure in the latter half of the year as U.S. inventory flows normalize [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in precious and industrial metal markets, particularly gold and silver, has led to increased interest in copper investments, despite concerns about the legitimacy and risks associated with copper bars as investment products [2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold and silver prices have reached new highs, while domestic copper prices have surpassed 100,000 yuan per ton, leading to heightened investor interest in copper [2]. - In Shenzhen, the largest gold and jewelry distribution center in China, merchants have begun offering pure copper 999.9 investment bars, primarily in 1000-gram specifications, priced around 200 yuan each [2]. Group 2: Investment Risks - Analysts warn that the current "copper bar craze" is more of a speculative trend rather than a legitimate investment opportunity, with concerns about the lack of standardized recovery channels for copper bars [2][4]. - The comparison of copper bars to gold and silver investments is misleading, as copper is an industrial metal with different pricing dynamics, making the assumption of significant returns unrealistic [3][4]. Group 3: Investment Alternatives - Investors are advised to consider alternative methods for investing in copper, such as copper ETFs, stocks of leading copper mining companies, or direct investments in copper futures and options, which may offer more reliable returns [5]. - The investment landscape for copper is evolving, with personal investors encouraged to explore various avenues that align with their risk tolerance and investment goals [5]. Group 4: Future Price Outlook - Market sentiment regarding copper prices is mixed, with some analysts predicting short-term price corrections due to macroeconomic factors, while others anticipate long-term upward trends driven by demand from sectors like electric power and renewable energy [6][7]. - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its copper price forecast for the first half of 2026, citing structural tensions in the market, while also warning of potential price corrections in the latter half of the year as U.S. tariff policies become clearer [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, and generally fluctuates with soybean meal. Affected by the improvement of China-Canada trade relations, rapeseed meal continued to decline and maintained a weak oscillation overall [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is in a destocking mode, which supports its price and keeps the basis at a high level. However, the improvement of China-Canada trade relations has increased the long - term supply pressure, causing rapeseed oil to decline in oscillation and increasing short - term volatility [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 8902 yuan/ton, down 161 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) was 2221 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan [2]. - The rapeseed oil monthly spread (5 - 9) was -21 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan; the rapeseed meal monthly spread (5 - 9) was -66 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. - The open interest of the main rapeseed oil contract was 253,596 lots, down 16,032 lots; the open interest of the main rapeseed meal contract was 1,013,517 lots, up 95,878 lots [2]. - The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were -20,757 lots, down 14,342 lots; for rapeseed meal were -272,749 lots, down 31,903 lots [2]. - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 1,942 sheets, down 200 sheets; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts was 84 sheets, unchanged [2]. - The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) was 637.1 Canadian dollars/ton, up 2.9 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) was 5,549 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,850 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,280 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [2]. - The average price of rapeseed oil was 9,956.25 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the import cost of imported rapeseed was 7,636.99 yuan/ton, up 46.97 yuan [2]. - The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6,300 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan; the oil - meal ratio was 4.04, up 0.09 [2]. - The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract was 787 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was 59 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan [2]. - The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing was 8,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,310 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1,150 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 820 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons; the domestic rapeseed production forecast for the year was 13.446 million tons, unchanged [2]. - The total rapeseed import volume for the month was 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit on the disk was 299 yuan/ton, down 116 yuan [2]. - The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 0.1 million tons, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 0%, unchanged [2]. - The total import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil for the month was 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; the total import volume of rapeseed meal for the month was 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 0.2 million tons, unchanged; the rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas was 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 27.4 million tons, up 2.25 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 15.7 million tons, down 1 million tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 0.1 million tons, unchanged; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 25.7 million tons, up 1.1 million tons [2]. - The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 0.18 million tons, down 0.22 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed was 2,977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; the monthly social consumer goods retail sales of catering revenue was 605.7 billion yuan, up 85.8 billion yuan [2]. - The monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 22.24% (17.23% previously), down 0.6%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 22.23% (17.21% previously), down 0.6% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal was 16.38%, up 0.03%; the 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal was 13.06%, up 0.24% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil was 18.03%, up 2.19%; the 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil was 14.77%, up 1.07% [2]. Industry News - On Friday, Canadian rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed higher, with the benchmark contract up 0.8%, hitting a six - week high, due to a new trade agreement between Canada and China including a reduction in rapeseed tariffs [2]. - The USDA monthly supply - demand report showed that the U.S. soybean production forecast for the 2025/26 season was 4.262 billion bushels, higher than last month's forecast and market expectations. The USDA also raised Brazil's soybean production and export forecasts, which was bearish for the market [2]. - The NOPA monthly crushing report showed that the U.S. soybean crushing volume in December 2025 jumped to the second - highest on record, which was positive for U.S. soybeans [2].

国债期货日报 2026/1/19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.040 | -0.02% T主力成交量 | 52248 | -16762↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.785 | -0.02% TF主力成交量 | 43774 | -19513↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.400 | 0% TS主力成交量 | 23651 | -10268↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 110.920 | -0.22% TL主力成交量 | 78148 | -15821↓ | | 期货价差 | TL2603-2606价差 | -0.11 | +0.02↑ T03-TL03价差 | -2.88 | 0.22↑ | | | T2603-2606价差 | 0.06 | +0.01↑ TF03-T03价差 | -2.26 | 0.00↑ | | | TF2603-2606价差 | -0.03 | +0.00↑ TS03-T03价差 | -5.6 ...

中信建投期货18日研报称，本周（1月12日-1月18日）贵金属高位运行，各品种表现仍然分化，黄金稳 步上行，白银强势突破92美元后小幅回落，铂金波动显著整周收涨，钯金表现较弱震荡收跌，主要由于 前期各品种涨幅不同，各品种受消息面影响具有一定差异。 策略上，中信建投期货分析，特朗普宣称对欧洲八国加征关税，格陵兰岛争端加剧，地缘紧张或继续推 动贵金属行情宽幅波动。美联储新主席人选与鲍威尔调查等事件驱动"贬值交易"，刺激黄金货币属性， 其上升趋势较为稳定。但银铂钯的纽约现货集中情形已缓和，紧缺对行情驱动力削弱，贵金属分化局面 或持续，投资者仍需关注短期风险。 操作上，中信建投期货认为，黄金长线多单可继续持有，银铂钯暂观望。沪金2604参考区间1010-1060 元/克，沪银2604参考区间19000-23000元/千克，广铂2606参考区间570-630元/克，广钯2606参考区间 440-490元/克。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：中新经纬 现货黄金站上4690美元/盎司，现货白银站上94美元/盎司，双双创历史新高。Wind显示，今年以来现货 白银价格已上涨约3 ...