Core Viewpoint - The construction industry is identified as a pillar industry in the province, emphasizing the need for high-quality development and transformation towards industrialization, digitalization, and greening [1] Group 1: Industry Development - The meeting highlighted the importance of scientifically assessing the current situation to strengthen confidence in the industry's development [1] - There is a call to accelerate the construction of a modern construction industry system and explore new development paths and dynamics [1] Group 2: Strategic Focus - The focus is on strengthening enterprises, promoting the industry, expanding the market, and optimizing the environment to support businesses [1] - The initiative aims to create an upgraded version of "Qilu Construction" [1] Group 3: Regulatory and Support Measures - Emphasis on enhancing organizational leadership and maintaining a systematic approach to industry regulation, including quality control, market order, and safety production [1] - The need for strengthening technological and talent support to enhance the overall quality and strength of the construction industry is underscored [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights the profitability pressure faced by the North Exchange in Q2 2025, primarily due to overseas disturbances and high fixed asset growth, with a forecasted turning point in the second half of the year [3][8]. - The technology manufacturing sector is leading the growth, driven by a combination of cyclical recovery and AI industry trends, while consumer sectors show a mixed performance [3][8]. - The report suggests three strategies to identify high-growth opportunities: selecting companies with sustained revenue growth, those with upward revisions in profit forecasts, and those with high contract liabilities and advance payments [3][8]. Summary by Sections Profitability Analysis - As of Q2 2025, the North Exchange reported a revenue growth rate of +4.9% and a net profit growth rate of -16.6%, indicating significant profitability challenges [8]. - The decline in net profit is attributed to a sharp drop in export growth to the U.S., with over 50% of companies experiencing negative net profit growth [8]. - Fixed asset growth reached a historical high of +30.2%, contributing to the pressure on profitability, with a gross margin of 22.4% [8]. Industry Structure - The technology manufacturing sector is experiencing high growth, with key industries such as computing, telecommunications, and electrical equipment showing positive trends [8]. - The report notes a structural recovery in midstream manufacturing, particularly in traditional robotics and engineering machinery, alongside emerging industries [8]. - Consumer sectors are experiencing a mixed recovery, with agriculture and forestry showing potential for improvement [8]. Investment Strategies - The report recommends identifying companies with consistent upward trends in revenue and net profit growth over the past four quarters, highlighting specific companies like Kaiter and Fujida [3][8]. - It also suggests focusing on companies with upward revisions in profit forecasts, such as Shuguang Shuchuang and Naconoer, which have seen significant increases in expected net profit growth [3][8]. - Companies with high contract liabilities and advance payments, like Kangnong Agriculture and Kun工科技, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [3][8].

证 券 研 究 报 告 科技制造引领，寻找景气成长 ——北交所25年二季报总结 2025.09.02 证券分析师：刘靖 A0230512070005 研究支持： 吕靖华 A0230124070002 主要内容 2 ◼ 北证二季报盈利压力再现。截至25Q2，北证单季营收增速+4.9%、环比-0.4pct，单季归母净利润增速-16.6%、环比 -8.8pct，ROEttm达+6.0%、环比-0.1pct；拆分ROE来看，25Q2，北证资产周转率TTM达62.6%、环比+0.5pct， 北证销售净利率TTM达5.5%、环比-0.2pct。其中，盈利压力主要源于两方面，1）Q2海外扰动影响显现，我国对美 出口增速大幅下滑，25Q2，北证出口50%以上企业单季扣非净利润增速转负、达-4.4%，环比-21.0pct。2）供给压 力、北证固定资产增速达历史高位，25Q2，北证固定资产增速达+30.2%、环比+2.0pct，处于历史高位，对北证盈 利能力形成压力，25Q2北证毛利率TTM达22.4%、环比-0.3pct，下滑幅度高于其他板块。展望后续，固定资产增速 的拐点有望在下半年出现，关注北证供给优化后的盈利弹性，截至2 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - The main contract price of rebar oscillated, recording a daily decline of 0.16%. With both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, industrial contradictions have accumulated, inventory has continued to increase, and steel prices are under pressure. It is expected to continue the weak bottom - seeking trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated weakly, recording a daily decline of 0.36%. The demand for hot - rolled coil has some resilience, but the fundamentals have not substantially improved, and the market sentiment is poor. It is expected to continue the oscillating and weakening trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated, recording a daily increase of 0.06%. The demand for iron ore has weakened, while the supply has increased steadily. The fundamentals of iron ore have weakened, and the valuation is relatively high. It is expected that the ore price will be under pressure and oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to steel performance [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - As of the end of August, the total amount of proposed use of special bonds to acquire idle stock land in 26 provinces and cities exceeded 610 billion yuan, and the actual issuance of special bonds was about 175.2 billion yuan. The bond - issuing progress accelerated in the third quarter [6]. - In the first half of 2025, nine major construction central enterprises all achieved profitability. The total revenue was 3,331.929 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.39%; the total net profit was 77.727 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.52% [7]. - In August 2025, 14 steel projects started or were put into production, including projects of Jinding Steel and Anhui Liugang starting, and projects of Quzhou Yuanli Metal, Hongyi New Materials, and Zhongnan Co., Ltd. being put into production [8]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and other products are presented, along with their price changes. For example, the national average price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) was 3,290 yuan, a decrease of 7 yuan; the national average price of hot - rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) was 3,424 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan [9]. 3. Futures Market - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore futures are provided. For example, the closing price of rebar futures was 3,117 yuan, a decrease of 0.16% [11]. 4. Related Charts - Include charts of steel inventory (rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (national 45 - port iron ore inventory, 247 - steel mill iron ore inventory), and steel mill production (247 - sample steel mill blast furnace start - up rate and capacity utilization rate, etc.) [13][18][26]. 5. Market Outlook - Rebar: Supply has increased to a high level this year, and demand has improved slightly but remains at a low level in recent years. The fundamentals have not improved, inventory has increased, and steel prices are under pressure. It is expected to continue the weak bottom - seeking trend [34]. - Hot - rolled coil: Supply has slightly shrunk, and demand is weakly stable. There is some demand resilience, but the fundamentals have not substantially improved. It is expected to continue the oscillating and weakening trend [34]. - Iron ore: Demand has weakened, and supply has increased steadily. The fundamentals have weakened, and the valuation is relatively high. It is expected that the ore price will be under pressure and oscillate weakly [35].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the Hong Kong stock market, particularly the dividend sector, experienced a decline last week, with the Hang Seng China Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Total Return Index falling by 1.72% and the Hang Seng Index down by 1.00% [1] - The materials sector led the performance among Hang Seng's primary industries, while the healthcare sector lagged behind [1] - Foreign capital continued to flow into the Hong Kong stock market, with a net inflow of 22.2 billion HKD from southbound funds last week, despite a slight outflow of 0.03 million USD from active foreign investments [1][2] Group 2 - The outlook for the Hong Kong stock market suggests a potential easing of liquidity, as the Hong Kong Monetary Authority may not need to continue withdrawing funds due to the appreciation of the HKD against the USD [2] - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September could lead to a flow of US funds into emerging markets, benefiting the Hong Kong stock market [2] - The dividend yield of the Hang Seng China Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index stands at 5.98%, significantly higher than the 4.46% yield of the CSI Dividend Index, with a price-to-book ratio of 0.60 and a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.79 [2] Group 3 - The overall performance of the Hong Kong stock market last week showed a mixed trend, with the broad-based indices reflecting varied sector performances [4] - The recent adjustments in liquidity are viewed as short-term impacts, with the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (Hibor) rising sharply from 0.9% to 3.3% [1][2] - The strong dividend strategy of central state-owned enterprises is expected to continue, supported by a low interest rate environment and a weak economic recovery [2]

Core Insights - The Homebuilding & Renovating Show in Glasgow is a significant event for home builders and renovators, showcasing its influence with over 70,000 attendees and an average project expenditure of £151,000 [1][9] Group 1: Event Overview - The event will take place from May 9 to May 10, 2026, at the SEC Exhibition Centre in Glasgow, celebrating over 30 years of providing inspiration, knowledge, and professional advice to home builders and renovators [1][10] - The show attracts a large number of visitors, with statistics indicating that 79% of attendees are actively executing projects, and 82% are influenced to purchase products or services from exhibitors after attending [3] Group 2: Business Opportunities - The exhibition offers exhibitors a chance to showcase their products and services while generating a substantial number of potential customers [3] - Face-to-face interactions at the event allow exhibitors to demonstrate product quality, enhancing sales efficiency [3] Group 3: Brand Impact - The importance of brand effect is emphasized, as collaboration with leading market brands can enhance exhibitors' brand credibility and recognition [5] - Positive feedback from exhibitors, such as Matrix Energy Systems, highlights increased interest and early bookings for future events [5] Group 4: Learning and Innovation - The event provides rich learning opportunities through professional seminars, masterclasses, and consultation centers, aimed at helping participants understand market trends and technological advancements [9] - A dedicated home energy zone promotes sustainable development and the application of energy-saving technologies, reinforcing the event's role in driving industry innovation [9]

Core Viewpoint - China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) experienced a decline in revenue and profit in the first half of the year, primarily due to a decrease in gross margin amid intensified competition in the construction industry, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, CCCC achieved revenue of 337.05 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%, attributed to the slowdown in the growth rate of the construction industry [1] - The decline in profit was mainly due to a reduction in gross margin from core business operations, alongside decreased fair value gains and an increase in credit impairment losses [1] Group 2: Business Outlook - Despite the challenges, CCCC's new contract signing amount continued to grow, and its overseas business showed stable performance [1] - The company maintains a "buy" rating, indicating confidence in its long-term prospects despite current financial setbacks [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the construction and decoration industry, highlighting specific companies as key investment targets [4][7]. Core Insights - The construction sector has experienced significant fluctuations over the past sixteen years, with eight winning phases (40% of the time) and seven losing phases (60% of the time) [1][12]. - The current market environment is characterized by a gradual easing of policies since late 2021, which has historically correlated with better performance in the construction sector [1][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of thematic influences, such as the "Belt and Road Initiative" and "PPP" projects, which have driven substantial short-term excess returns in the sector [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Historical Review of the Construction Sector - The report divides the historical performance of the construction sector from June 2008 to December 2024 into fifteen phases based on excess returns relative to the CSI 300 index [11]. - Winning phases include significant periods of policy easing and economic recovery, while losing phases often coincide with tighter monetary policies [1][12]. 2. Policy Cycle and Market Trends - The report identifies four major policy cycles since 2008, with the current phase being a gradual easing that began in late 2021 [1][3]. - The correlation between excess returns and macroeconomic indicators is noted to be weak, with expectations of policy changes being more influential [1][3]. 3. Thematic Characteristics and Valuation - The construction sector's valuation is currently low, with a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 0.8, which is below historical averages and indicates potential for rebound [2][3]. - The report highlights that the sector's performance is sensitive to thematic catalysts, suggesting that upcoming regional initiatives could provide investment opportunities [3][4]. 4. Comparison with Banking Sector - The construction sector is compared to the banking sector, noting similarities in business models and sensitivity to credit environment changes [3]. - The current price-to-book ratio of the construction sector relative to banks is at a critical point, suggesting potential for significant excess returns if historical patterns hold [3]. 5. Investment Recommendations - Key investment targets include leading companies benefiting from strategic infrastructure projects, such as Sichuan Road and Bridge, China Metallurgical Group, and China Communications Construction [4][7]. - The report also suggests monitoring local leaders in Xinjiang and companies involved in coal chemical projects as potential high-return investments [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for China State Construction Engineering Corporation (601668) [2][5]. Core Views - The company reported a steady performance in its 2025 interim results, with a revenue of 1,108.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.17%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 30.40 billion yuan, an increase of 3.24% [5]. - The gross margin and net margin improved slightly, with a gross margin of 9.43% and a net margin of 3.65% for the first half of 2025 [5]. - The company continues to optimize its business structure, with significant growth in infrastructure and energy sectors, while the real estate sector experienced a slight decline [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 1,108.31 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.17% year-on-year, and a total profit of 49.83 billion yuan, an increase of 0.13% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 30.40 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.24%, with basic earnings per share at 0.73 yuan, up 2.8% [5]. Margin Analysis - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 9.43%, up by 0.02 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 3.65%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points [5]. - The company improved its expense ratios, with a sales expense ratio of 0.37%, a management expense ratio of 1.51%, and a financial expense ratio of 0.80% [5]. Business Segments - The total new contracts signed in the first half of 2025 amounted to 25,010 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [5]. - The construction business saw new contracts of 14,964 billion yuan, down 2.3%, while the infrastructure business grew by 10% to 8,237 billion yuan [5]. - The real estate sector reported a contract sales amount of 174.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.9%, with a sales area of 6.33 million square meters, down 3.3% [5]. Investment Outlook - The report suggests that the company, as a leading player in the global construction industry, has shown resilience during the cyclical downturn in the real estate and construction sectors [5]. - The forecast for earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 is 1.17 yuan and 1.21 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 4.76 and 4.58 [5][7].

Group 1 - The construction and decoration industry is facing pressure on revenue and profit in H1 2025, with a focus on cash flow improvement and cost control [1] - Major listed companies in the construction sector achieved operating revenue of 3.75 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%, and a net profit of 87.5 billion, down 6.5% year-on-year [1] - The operating revenue for Q1 and Q2 of 2025 was 1.84 trillion and 1.91 trillion respectively, with year-on-year declines of 6.2% and 5.2% [1] Group 2 - The industry gross margin in H1 2025 was 9.9%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 2.33%, down 0.02 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Quarterly gross margins for Q1 and Q2 were 9.1% and 10.7%, with year-on-year changes of -0.1 percentage points and -0.3 percentage points respectively [2] Group 3 - The operating cash flow in H1 2025 showed improvement, with a net outflow of 477.4 billion, which is 15.1 billion less than the previous year [3] - The cash collection ratios for Q1 and Q2 were 103% and 87%, with year-on-year changes of +0.85 percentage points and +11.65 percentage points respectively [3] Group 4 - The overall return on equity (ROE) for the industry in H1 2025 was 2.50%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The decline in industry investment and increased pressure on company receivables have led to a rise in expenses and impairments, impacting the ROE [4]