Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.39% to close at 3457.75 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.11% to 10476.29 points. However, the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index fell by 0.86% to 994.80 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.24% to 2147.92 points. Overall, 2628 stocks rose, 2542 fell, and 247 remained unchanged across the market [1]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 14660 billion, a decrease of 208.42 billion compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, sectors such as comprehensive, pharmaceutical biology, banking, non-ferrous metals, public utilities, and building materials led the gains, while computer, retail, telecommunications, media, power equipment, and real estate sectors experienced declines [1]. Sector Highlights - The top-performing concept sectors today included China Shipbuilding System, innovative drugs, antibiotics, vitamins, generic drugs, low-priced stocks in the ChiNext, hydropower, biotechnology, advanced packaging, superhard materials, pet economy, CRO, medical material exports, selected banks, and brain-computer interfaces [1].

[Table_Title] 量价行业轮动组合 2025 年上半年月胜率为 100% [Table_Title2] ——行业轮动组合月报 证券研究报告|金融工程研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 7 月 1 日 [Table_Summary] ► 量价行业轮动组合 2025 年前 6 个月皆跑赢基准 量价行业轮动组合 6 月份上涨 3.80%，相对于行业等权的 超额收益为 0.04%。今年以来，量价行业轮动组合上涨 7.73%，相对于行业等权组合的超额收益为 3.32%，月胜率为 100%。 2025 年 6 月份量价复合因子值排名较高的行业为：钢 铁、机械、房地产、商贸零售、家电。 风险提示 报告的结论基于历史统计规律，当历史规律发生改变 时，报告中的结论可能失效。市场可能出现超预期波动风 险。 评级及分析师信息 [Table_Author] 分析师：丁睿雯 邮箱：dingrw@hx168.com.cn SAC NO：S1120523040002 分析师：杨国平 邮箱：yanggp@hx168.com.cn SAC NO：S1120520070002 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 1 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is increasingly extending payment terms to suppliers, with average payment periods exceeding 170 days, impacting the cash flow of smaller suppliers and leading to financial distress [1][3]. Group 1: Payment Terms in Automotive Industry - Domestic automotive companies have an average payment term of over 170 days, with some exceeding 240 days [1]. - Payment terms for upstream suppliers are typically extended by an additional two months, resulting in even longer payment cycles for Tier 2 and Tier 3 suppliers [3]. - The revised "Regulations on Payment of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises" mandates that large enterprises must pay small and medium-sized suppliers within 60 days of delivery [3]. Group 2: Retail Industry Payment Terms - In the retail sector, over 60% of retailers have payment terms exceeding 60 days, with the average payment term for the retail industry in 2024 being 62 days, a slight increase from 58 days in 2023 [5]. - The trade industry has a payment term of 46 days, while the general retail sector has a significantly longer payment term of 112 days [6]. - The professional chain industry has the shortest payment term at 21 days, while the internet e-commerce sector has a payment term of 78 days, which has decreased by 8 days from the previous year [6]. Group 3: Historical Trends and Regulations - Payment terms in the retail industry have generally increased from 2020 to 2024, with the general retail sector's payment term extending by 4 days and the internet e-commerce sector by 40 days [7]. - The "Retailer Supplier Fair Trade Management Measures" established in 2006 aimed to regulate payment terms, stating that payment should not exceed 60 days post-delivery [7][8]. - Despite regulations, many retailers continue to extend payment terms beyond the stipulated limits, particularly in the general retail sector, where terms can be nearly double the recommended period [8]. Group 4: Specific Company Cases - Baida Group has the longest payment term in the retail sector at 1,308 days, significantly influenced by its business model and low operating costs [10]. - Hangzhou Xie Bai follows with a payment term of 838 days, also due to its business model that minimizes financial risk [11]. - In contrast, Kairuide, operating in the trade sector, has the shortest payment term of just 1 day, reflecting its self-operated business model and focus on cash flow management [12].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Consumer Sector**: The consumer sector in China is currently facing challenges due to a lack of growth engines, but there are signs of recovery driven by export growth and improvements in domestic economic activities. [1][4] - **Retail Sector**: The retail sector is experiencing supply surplus and insufficient demand, necessitating a focus on new demand opportunities, including traditional channel transformations and the rise of instant retail. [1][7] Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Recovery**: The recovery of exports is expected to positively impact domestic economic activities and consumption, with a notable rebound in personal income tax indicating a gradual recovery in residents' income. [1][4] - **Investment Strategy**: In July, the investment strategy should avoid liquidity-driven assets and focus on service consumption and high-turnover goods that are less affected by liquidity pressures. [1][4] - **New Consumption Trends**: New consumption is identified as a key growth driver for the next two to three years, emphasizing the creation of new consumption scenarios and business models, particularly in high-turnover and low-leverage service consumption. [1][5][6] Specific Areas of Focus - **Service Consumption**: Investment opportunities in the consumer sector are concentrated in emotional value consumption (e.g., trendy toys, pets) and functional value consumption (e.g., AI-related products). [6] - **Cross-Border Trade**: Companies engaged in cross-border trade should focus on supply chain management, brand premium capabilities, and channel premium capabilities due to tightening trade policies. [8] - **E-commerce Performance**: The 2025 618 e-commerce promotion met expectations, with Douyin's growth exceeding forecasts, highlighting a trend of collaboration across platforms. Instant retail channels performed exceptionally well during this event. [9][10] Additional Important Insights - **Tobacco Industry**: The tobacco industry is showing a stable upward trend, with new products like Glohilo from British American Tobacco expected to perform well in Japan. [3][11][12] - **Home Appliances**: The home appliance sector is expected to see double-digit growth driven by national policy support, with leading companies using pricing strategies to enhance market share. [3][22] - **Household Goods**: The household goods sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with a focus on companies that can demonstrate alpha capabilities. [3][13] - **Competition in Cleaning Appliances**: The competition in the cleaning appliance sector is easing, benefiting companies like Roborock and Ecovacs, with expectations of rising industry profit margins. [3][20] Conclusion The conference call highlighted the complexities and opportunities within various sectors of the Chinese economy, particularly in consumer and retail markets. The focus on new consumption trends, service-oriented products, and strategic adjustments in response to economic conditions will be crucial for navigating the current landscape.

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes a strong hold on high-conviction new consumption leaders, focusing on themes such as emotional consumption, functional value, channel transformation, and brand expansion abroad [2][8] Core Insights - The new consumption sector is expected to see a rise, with a focus on both established leaders and traditional companies adopting new consumption strategies [2][8] - The report suggests that Q3 will present structural opportunities, while Q4 is anticipated to see leading companies reaching new highs [2][8] - The light industry manufacturing sector is highlighted for its growth potential, particularly in new tobacco products and the home goods market [3][16] - The textile and apparel industry is advised to focus on differentiated companies with high growth potential [5][20] - The beauty and personal care sector remains robust, with recommendations for high-value stocks [5][21] - The home appliance sector shows strong performance in sales, particularly during the 618 shopping festival [5][22][23] - The retail sector is experiencing a shift, with online sales stabilizing and offline stores undergoing significant transformations [5][24][25] Summary by Sections New Consumption - Focus on holding high-conviction new consumption leaders and exploring traditional companies with new consumption mindsets [2][8] - Q3 is seen as a period for structural opportunities, while Q4 may bring valuation shifts for leading companies [2][8] Light Industry Manufacturing - New tobacco products are on an upward trend, with significant market expansion expected [3][16] - The home goods market is stabilizing, with a focus on companies showing signs of recovery [3][16] Textile and Apparel - The sector is advised to prioritize companies with unique advantages and high growth potential [5][20] Beauty and Personal Care - The sector remains high in demand, with recommendations for companies showing strong performance and recovery potential [5][21] Home Appliances - The sector has shown excellent sales performance, particularly during promotional events, with a notable increase in production [5][22][23] Retail Sector - The online retail landscape is stabilizing, with significant changes in offline retail strategies [5][24][25]

Market Performance - On June 27, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.70%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.34% and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.47%[3] - The total market turnover was 15,409.36 billion yuan, a decrease of 420.19 billion yuan from the previous trading day[3] - Out of 5,220 stocks, 3,429 rose and 1,791 fell[3] Sector Performance - The best-performing sectors included non-ferrous metals (up 2.21%), telecommunications (up 1.68%), and textiles and apparel (up 1.14%)[3] - The worst-performing sectors were banks (down 2.85%), electric power and utilities (down 0.99%), and retail (down 0.73%)[3] Fund Flow - On June 27, 2025, the net outflow of main funds was 269.48 billion yuan, with large orders seeing a net outflow of 163.72 billion yuan and small orders experiencing a net inflow of 282.90 billion yuan[4] - Major ETFs like the Huaxia SSE 50 ETF and the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF saw changes in turnover of +3.96 billion yuan and +5.13 billion yuan, respectively[4] Global Market Trends - On June 27, 2025, major Asia-Pacific indices showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.17% and the Nikkei 225 up 1.43%[5] - In the U.S., major indices rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 0.94% and the S&P 500 rising by 0.80%[5] Risk Warning - The analysis is based on objective data and is for reference only, not constituting investment advice[6]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.22% to 3448.45 points, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.48% to 10,343.48 points, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.66% to 2114.43 points. The total trading volume in the A-share market was 1.58 trillion RMB, with net purchases from southbound funds amounting to 5.285 billion HKD. Over 3400 stocks in the A-share market declined [1][6] - In terms of industry performance, the banking, telecommunications, and defense industries led the gains, while the automotive and non-bank financial sectors saw the largest declines. Concept sectors such as military restructuring and electronic ID concepts showed significant gains, while sectors like photolithography and shared bicycles faced declines [1][6] - Internationally, the US stock indices collectively rose, with the Dow Jones up by 0.94% to 43,386.84 points, the S&P 500 up by 0.8% to 6141.02 points, and the Nasdaq up by 0.97% to 20,167.91 points. European and major Asia-Pacific indices generally rose [1][6] Important News - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that the third batch of funds for the consumption upgrade program will be distributed in July 2025. The focus will be on ensuring the sustainable and balanced implementation of the program throughout the year [2][6] - The Bank for International Settlements reported that stablecoins have not met the three key tests required to become a pillar of the monetary system, despite showing some potential in the tokenization landscape [2][7] Retail Sales Data - In May 2025, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 413.26 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, with growth rates improving both year-on-year and month-on-month. Retail sales of goods and catering services both saw increases compared to the previous month [8][12] - Online retail sales from January to May 2025 totaled 604.02 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, with physical goods online retail sales growing by 6.3% [11] Solid-State Battery Equipment - The solid-state battery industry is entering a rapid development phase, driven by national policy support and accelerated enterprise layouts. Solid-state batteries are seen as a key direction for upgrading lithium battery technology due to their high safety and energy density [15][19] - The market structure for lithium battery equipment shows that the front-end and mid-stage equipment hold significant value, with coating and winding machines being core components. The front-end equipment market accounts for 44.05%, while mid-stage equipment accounts for 35.71% of the total market [16][19] - The introduction of dry electrode technology in the front-end process is expected to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, while the use of isostatic presses in the mid-stage process can improve material density and performance [17][18] Home Appliance Industry - The home appliance industry is benefiting from the consumption upgrade policy, with sales expected to continue growing. The real estate sector's recovery is also contributing to increased demand for home appliances as the market stabilizes [21][22] - The industry has seen a decline in performance due to tariff wars, but the valuation of home appliance stocks is currently at a historical low, presenting a good investment opportunity [21][22] - The export of home appliances is expected to remain resilient despite tariff uncertainties, supported by the growing demand in emerging markets [23]

Market Overview - Global monetary policy is gradually shifting towards easing, with signals of a potential interest rate cut in July from Federal Reserve officials and White House representatives [1][5] - Domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth are being implemented, including excess MLF operations and consumer support policies [1][5] - Overall economic stability and strong foreign trade resilience suggest that both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are likely to maintain a strong oscillating pattern in the short term [1][5] A-shares Performance - On June 25, A-shares continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.04% to 3455.97 points, marking a new high for the year [2] - The non-bank financial sector led the gains with a 4.46% increase, driven by policies aimed at enhancing capital market functions and promoting long-term capital inflows [3][4] - The defense and military sector saw a rise of 3.36%, fueled by expectations surrounding the upcoming military parade [3][4] - The computer sector benefited from domestic industrial upgrades and artificial intelligence policies [3][4] Hong Kong Stocks Performance - The Hong Kong market also experienced gains, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.23% to 24474.67 points, achieving a three-month high [2] - Consumer services, particularly the comprehensive consumer services sector, surged by 5.1%, indicating increased market confidence in consumption recovery [3][4] - Real estate management and development sectors rose by 2.79% and 3.22%, respectively, reflecting valuation recovery opportunities amid policy easing [3][4] Sector Analysis - Financial stocks performed exceptionally well, particularly brokerage firms benefiting from the approval of virtual asset trading licenses [4] - Education stocks also saw significant increases due to favorable policies supporting debt financing for educational enterprises [4] - In contrast, the biotechnology sector in Hong Kong experienced a slight decline of 0.15%, possibly due to recent valuation adjustments in the pharmaceutical sector [4] - A-shares showed stronger resilience in technology and consumer sectors, especially in artificial intelligence and computing, compared to Hong Kong stocks [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a strong rebound in the consumer sector, particularly through the Consumer Leader ETF (516130), which saw a price increase of 0.81% [1] - The leading stocks in various consumer segments, such as machinery, retail, and consumer services, experienced significant gains, with Stone Technology and Chongqing Department Store both rising over 5% [1] - The People's Bank of China and six other departments issued guidelines to support and expand consumption, proposing 19 key measures to enhance consumer capacity and optimize the consumption environment [1][3] Group 2 - There is an increasing focus on consumption from higher authorities, with favorable policies emerging to boost the consumer sector, indicating a potential trend in the market [3] - The Consumer Leader ETF's underlying index has a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.26, which is at a low point compared to the past decade, suggesting a favorable long-term investment opportunity [3] - Analysts predict that consumption will be a significant driver of economic growth in 2025, with ongoing policy support expected to create new dynamics and scenarios in the consumer market [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight overseas market risk appetite recovered due to the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran and Fed Chair Powell's dovish remarks, leading to a rise in US stocks. In China, the National Day parade news and post - market financial consumption - promotion measures helped boost the index. The sustainability of the rebound depends on whether the trading volume of the two markets can continue to expand [1][2][3]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Domestic Policy**: Six departments including the central bank jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", proposing 19 key measures in six aspects to enhance consumption potential [1]. - **Overseas Situation**: Israel and Iran agreed to a full - scale cease - fire, and Fed Chair Powell hinted at a possible early interest rate cut [1][2]. - **Spot Market**: A - share major indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.15% to 3420.57 points, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.3%. Most sectors' indices rose, and the trading volume of the two markets increased to 1.4 trillion yuan. US stocks also rose, with the Nasdaq rising 1.43% to 19912.53 points [2]. - **Futures Market**: The basis of stock index futures slightly recovered but remained at a low level. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures both increased [2]. Strategy - The market's upward trend is affected by overseas risk - appetite recovery and domestic policy catalysis. The sustainability of the rebound requires the continuous expansion of trading volume [3]. Macro - economic Charts - Include charts such as the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share trends, and the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends [6][9][10]. Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and other major indices all rose on June 24, 2025, with the ChiNext Index having the highest increase of 2.3% [12]. - **Market Volume and Balance**: Include charts of the trading volume of the two markets and the margin trading balance [11][12]. Futures Market Tracking Charts - **Open Interest and Volume**: The open interest and trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all increased [16]. - **Basis**: The basis of stock index futures showed different changes in different contracts and different delivery months, with some narrowing and some expanding [27]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The inter - delivery spreads of stock index futures also showed various changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [33][35].