行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 08 日 证券研究报告 小金属 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 郑嘉伟 SAC：S1350523120001 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 项祈瑞 SAC：S1350524040002 xiangqirui@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 小金属价格分化显著：稀土/钨/钼上涨，锡/锑震荡调整 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——小金属＆新材料双周报（2025/5/26-2025/6/6） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 稀土：国内价格小幅上涨，等待出口窗口期落地稀土价格有望突破。近两周，氧化 镨钕上涨 4.66%至 44.9 万元/吨，氧化镝上涨 0.31%至 163 万元/吨，氧化铽上涨 1.69%至 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - The macro sentiment has eased following the dialogue between the US and China, leading to a strong fluctuation in industrial metals [1][6] - Precious metals have seen a decline in safe-haven demand, with gold and silver prices experiencing slight increases this week [1][25] - The report highlights the impact of US economic indicators, including manufacturing and employment data, on market sentiment and metal prices [1][40] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 0.54% to $3,331.00 per ounce, while silver prices rose by 9.24% to $36.13 per ounce this week [1][25] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 129,023.13 troy ounces, and SLV Silver ETF holdings rose by 13,038,422.40 ounces [1][25] - The gold-silver ratio fell by 7.96% to 92.19, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1][25] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper prices rose by 1.83% to $9,670.50 per ton, aluminum by 0.12% to $2,451.50 per ton, zinc by 1.25% to $2,662.50 per ton, and lead by 0.51% to $1,974.00 per ton [6][46] - SHFE market showed similar trends with copper up by 1.71% to ¥78,930.00 per ton and zinc up by 0.72% to ¥22,385.00 per ton [6][46] - The report notes a significant decrease in LME copper registered warehouse stocks, down 17.5% to 54,700 tons, the lowest level since July 2023 [44] Copper - Chile's copper exports in May reached 181,234 tons, with 32,721 tons exported to China [7][67] - Domestic copper rod enterprises' operating rates increased to 75.90%, reflecting a recovery in demand [7][67] - The report anticipates a long-term positive outlook for copper prices due to ongoing macroeconomic policies and infrastructure investments in China [8][68] Aluminum - The report indicates that aluminum demand is under pressure, with production costs decreasing and seasonal demand weakening [9][10] - The average cost of electrolytic aluminum in China fell to ¥16,374 per ton, while the average profit margin increased to ¥3,703 per ton [44] - The outlook for aluminum prices remains cautiously optimistic, supported by ongoing demand in the electric vehicle and power sectors [10][18] Zinc - The report highlights ongoing uncertainties due to tariffs and increased imports, leading to sustained supply pressures in the zinc market [11] - Domestic zinc ingot inventories increased by 0.43% to 79,300 tons, indicating a buildup in supply [11] Lead - Lead consumption is currently in a seasonal downturn, with inventories expected to continue rising [12] - The report notes that lead battery markets are experiencing reduced production, leading to cautious procurement strategies among downstream enterprises [12] Minor Metals - Magnesium prices have seen a decline of 3.25% to ¥17,590 per ton, with cautious purchasing behavior observed in the market [13][14] - Molybdenum prices have increased, supported by strong raw material prices, while vanadium prices have softened due to weak demand [15]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices opened with mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.01% and the ChiNext Index down by 0.04% [1] - Sectors such as small metals, military equipment restructuring concepts, and communication services showed notable gains [1] Institutional Insights - China Galaxy predicts that the market may continue to exhibit a volatile pattern in the short term, with technology remaining the main focus for medium to long-term allocation [1] - The firm emphasizes the importance of external tariff changes and the pace of domestic policy implementation, suggesting limited adjustment space for the market [1] - Significant financial policies are expected to be announced during the Lujiazui Forum from June 18 to 19, which may support market expectations [1] - The central government's push for long-term capital inflow into the A-share market is expected to provide a more solid foundation for stable market operations [1] Investment Strategies - Three main lines of investment opportunities are identified: 1. Assets with high safety margins, particularly dividend-paying sectors that offer stable returns amid external uncertainties [2] 2. The "technology narrative" in the A-share market, with revised restructuring methods facilitating early-stage tech companies' participation in mergers and acquisitions [2] 3. The consumer sector boosted by policy support, with recent data showing the effectiveness of consumption upgrade policies [2] Market Trends - According to招商证券, the broad market index is likely to experience a volatile trend in June, with large-cap and quality indices expected to outperform [3] - The current economic fundamentals are stable, and while external changes may impact exports, domestic demand policies are still gaining momentum [3] - The firm notes a decline in corporate financing demand and a downward trend in capital expenditure, suggesting that strategies based on cash flow and return on equity (ROE) may continue to perform well [3] Sector Focus - 东方证券 indicates a shift in market focus towards the broader technology sector, suggesting that significant policy or technological catalysts could present ideal opportunities for increased allocation [4] - The recent decline in the new consumption sector in Hong Kong and the adjustment in A-share consumer stocks highlight the risks of crowded investment themes reaching their peak [4] - Strong performance in technology-related sectors such as CPO, components, AI PCs, copper cables, and drones suggests a potential market shift towards technology [4]

Group 1 - The A-share small metal sector experienced an initial rise, with Haotong Technology and Xingye Silver Tin both increasing by over 6% [1] - Other companies such as Guiyan Platinum Industry, Xianglu Tungsten Industry, Guangsheng Nonferrous, Yian Technology, and Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry also saw gains [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the easing of US-China tariffs may lead to a recovery in the copper sector, driven by improved export and macroeconomic expectations, alongside tight copper supply [5] - The aluminum sector is expected to see a rebound in exports, although attention must be paid to downstream production changes [5] - The gold sector is positioned for potential recovery due to rising risk aversion stemming from increased US fiscal concerns and new tariffs on EU imports [5] - Small metals like tungsten and rare earths are showing price increases overseas, which may gradually transmit to domestic markets [5] - The steel sector is anticipated to benefit from urban renewal projects and a favorable cost environment, leading to improved profitability expectations [6] Summary by Relevant Sections Copper Sector - Recent LME copper price was $9,595 per ton, with a week-on-week change of +0.6% - SHFE copper price was 77,790 RMB per ton, with a week-on-week change of -0.4% - Copper social inventory recorded 139,900 tons, up 7900 tons week-on-week, indicating initial stockpiling in the off-season [5] Aluminum Sector - LME aluminum price was $2,437 per ton, with a week-on-week change of -1.5% - SHFE aluminum price was 20,155 RMB per ton, with a week-on-week change of +0.1% - The aluminum processing enterprise operating rate fell to 61.4%, indicating a mixed demand landscape [5] Gold Sector - SHFE gold price was 780 RMB per gram, with a week-on-week change of +3.8% - COMEX gold price was $3,358 per ounce, with a week-on-week change of +4.8% - Increased concerns over US fiscal risks and new tariffs are expected to elevate gold prices [5] Small Metals Sector - Rare earth prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxides were 429,000 RMB per ton, with a week-on-week change of -1.0% - Tungsten prices for tungsten concentrate were 165,000 RMB per ton, with a week-on-week change of +0.9% [5] Steel Sector - SHFE rebar price was 3,046 RMB per ton, with a week-on-week change of -1.2% - SHFE hot-rolled coil price was 3,189 RMB per ton, with a week-on-week change of -1.1% - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to launch approximately 3 trillion RMB in quality projects this year, enhancing demand expectations [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals industry [7] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.88% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index and ranking seventh among 31 first-level industries [2][13] - Precious metals showed strong performance due to heightened market risk aversion influenced by global geopolitical conflicts and inflation data [5] - The report highlights the importance of strategic minor metals investment opportunities amid intensified international market purchasing [5] Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals industry index rose by 1.88% from May 12 to May 23, 2025, with industrial metals and precious metals leading the gains at 2.87% and 2.45% respectively [2][13] Precious Metals - As of May 23, COMEX gold closed at $3,357.70 per ounce, reflecting a 4.75% increase over the past week and a 25.70% rise year-to-date [21][23] - COMEX silver closed at $33.64 per ounce, up 3.73% over the past week and 12.19% year-to-date [21][26] Industrial Metals - LME copper settled at $9,595 per ton, up 1.15% over the past two weeks and 10.47% year-to-date [30] - LME aluminum closed at $2,437 per ton, increasing by 1.50% over the past two weeks but down 3.90% year-to-date [30][32] Minor Metals - The price of antimony ingots (99.65%) was reported at 225,000 yuan per ton, down 5.32% over the past two weeks but up 58.65% year-to-date [36][37] - Black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) was priced at 164,500 yuan per ton, down 1.79% over the past two weeks and up 15.24% year-to-date [36] Rare Earths - The rare earth price index stood at 177.95, up 0.55% over the past two weeks and 8.65% year-to-date [47] - Praseodymium-neodymium oxide was priced at 429,000 yuan per ton, up 1.42% over the past two weeks [47] Energy Metals - Electrolytic cobalt averaged 235,850 yuan per ton, down 2.54% over the past two weeks but up 38.33% year-to-date [51] - Sulfuric cobalt (≥20.5%) averaged 49,000 yuan per ton, down 0.71% over the past two weeks and up 83.52% year-to-date [51] Major Events - China issued export licenses for rare earths to at least four producers, marking the first such issuance since export controls were implemented in April [4][58]

Group 1 - The small metal sector is experiencing a downturn, with Dongfang Tantalum Industry (000962) dropping over 7% [1] - Other companies such as Huayang New Materials (600281), Yian Technology (300328), Guangsheng Nonferrous Metals (600259), and Western Materials (002149) are also following the downward trend [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a volatile adjustment phase, with significant divergence among the three major indices, indicating a need for investors to focus on individual stock fundamentals and industry trends rather than relying solely on index movements [3][5]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed flat with a change of 0.00%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.08%, and the ChiNext Index declined by 0.33%, highlighting a clear divergence in market performance [3]. - The micro-cap stock index rose over 2%, reaching a new historical high, suggesting a preference among some investors for small-cap stocks due to their high elasticity and easier capital mobilization [4]. Trading Volume and Market Sentiment - Trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets decreased significantly compared to the previous trading day, indicating a cautious sentiment among market participants [5]. - The reduction in trading volume suggests a large divergence between buyers and sellers, which may limit the market's upward potential, although it could also indicate a period of consolidation before potential recovery [5]. Sector Performance - The market displayed a clear sectoral divergence, with the port, ST, mergers and acquisitions, and food sectors showing gains, while humanoid robots, small metals, liquor, and insurance sectors experienced declines [7][8]. - The port sector's rise is attributed to marginal improvements in foreign trade data and supportive policies for the logistics industry, while the ST sector's strength is linked to expectations of asset restructuring [7]. - The decline in the humanoid robot sector is primarily due to profit-taking after previous gains, while the small metals sector is affected by fluctuations in international commodity prices [8]. Future Outlook - Despite the current market's adjustment phase, there are still structural opportunities available, particularly in sectors with strong policy support such as new energy and digital economy [10]. - Investors are advised to consider stable, reasonably valued stocks in the consumer and pharmaceutical sectors while maintaining a cautious approach to manage market volatility [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the small metals and new materials sector is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that tungsten prices have reached historical highs while antimony prices are adjusting, with materials expected to benefit from the acceleration of commercial nuclear fusion [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring overseas rare earth prices in June, with expectations of a general price increase but limited growth compared to May [6] - The report suggests that the recent easing of tariffs between China and the US may create opportunities for new materials exports, particularly for companies with high export exposure [10][11] Summary by Sections Rare Earths - Recent price movements include a 1.42% increase in praseodymium-neodymium oxide to 429,000 CNY/ton, a 1.22% decrease in dysprosium oxide to 1,625,000 CNY/ton, and a 0.07% increase in terbium oxide to 7,080,000 CNY/ton [6][13] - Key factors to watch include the implementation timeline of the total rare earth control draft, export quotas, and imports from Myanmar [6] Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices increased by 4.30% to 3,635 CNY/ton, while molybdenum iron (Mo60) prices rose by 4.87% to 237,000 CNY/ton [21] Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices rose by 7.89% to 164,000 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate prices increased by 8.74% to 242,500 CNY/ton [24] Tin - SHFE tin prices increased by 1.95% to 264,600 CNY/ton, and LME tin prices rose by 2.99% to 3.27 USD/ton [33] Antimony - Antimony ingot prices decreased by 5.32% to 222,500 CNY/ton, and antimony concentrate prices fell by 3.70% to 195,000 CNY/ton [48] New Materials - The report notes a window of opportunity for new materials exports due to the recent tariff adjustments, suggesting a potential recovery for companies like BQ New Materials and others [10][11] - The commercial acceleration of controlled nuclear fusion is expected to benefit upstream materials, with significant developments reported in both domestic and international projects [11]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Recommended" [5] Core Views - The macroeconomic sentiment has weakened, leading to a resurgence in gold prices, with COMEX gold rising 4.75% to $3,357.70 per ounce and SHFE gold increasing 3.76% to ¥780.10 per gram [1][27] - The U.S. economic uncertainty and global trade dynamics are prompting investors to shift towards safe-haven assets like gold and silver, with expectations of continued price appreciation [3][48] - The ongoing U.S.-EU tariff tensions and the recent U.S. debt auction results have contributed to the volatility in the market, reinforcing the attractiveness of precious metals [3][47] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have increased significantly, with COMEX gold up 4.75% and SHFE gold up 3.76% [1][27] - The gold-silver ratio has risen by 0.99% to 99.81, indicating a stronger performance of gold relative to silver [27] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 119,821.97 troy ounces, while SLV Silver ETF holdings rose by 9,728,859.30 ounces [27] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper prices rose by 1.76% to $9,614.00 per ton, while aluminum fell by 0.62% to $2,466.00 per ton [52] - SHFE copper prices decreased by 0.45% to ¥77,790.00 per ton, while aluminum prices increased by 0.12% to ¥20,155.00 per ton [52] - The overall sentiment in the base metals market remains mixed, with supply concerns and fluctuating demand impacting prices [7][52] Small Metals - The price of magnesium has increased by 0.11% to ¥18,780 per ton, reflecting strong pricing power among manufacturers [14] - Molybdenum and vanadium prices have shown slight increases, with molybdenum iron at ¥227,500 per ton [15] - The market for small metals is currently stable, with limited price fluctuations observed [15][80]