2025 年 6 月 3 日 股指期货震荡整理 黄金、白银、原油、燃料油期货将震 荡偏强 工业硅、螺纹钢、铁矿石、玻璃、纯碱期货将偏弱 震荡 天然橡胶、20 号胶期货将震荡偏弱 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将震荡整理：IF2506 阻力位 3833 和 3850 点，支撑位 3798 和 3775 点；IH2506 阻力位 2681 和 2689 点，支撑位 2644 和 2633 点；IC2506 阻力位 5669 和 5700 点，支撑位 5585 和 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不 負 責，對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明，並 明 確 表 示，概 不 就 因 本 公 告 全部或任何部分內容所產生或因依賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責 任。 YSB Inc. 藥師幫股份有限公司 （於 開 曼 群 島 註 冊 成 立 的 有 限 公 司） （股 份 代 號：9885） 自願性公告 訂立戰略合作與業務部署協議 最新業務部署進展 此公告乃藥師幫股份有限公司（「本公司」，與 其 附 屬 公 司 合 稱「本集團」）自願作 出，以 告 知 其 股 東 及 潛 在 投 資 者 有 關 本 集 團 若 干 業 務 發 展 之 最 新 情 況。 本公司董事會（「董事會」）欣 然 宣 佈，於2025年6月3日，本 集 團 與 深 圳 市 越 疆 科 技 股份有限公司（其H股於香港聯合交易所有限公司主板上市；股份代號：2432.HK） （「越疆科技」）訂立戰略合作與業務部署協議（「戰略協議」），開 啟 緊 密 戰 略 合 作， 並 已 展 開 具 體 項 目 的 部 署。 有關合作背景介紹 本集團創立於20 ...

中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 宏观策略评论 2025 年 6 月 3 日 证券分析师：徐高 (8610)66229055 gao.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519050002 经济形势跟踪： 关税战压力稍缓，国内房价 明显回调 （风险提示：宏观经济走势具有不确定性，宏观政策可能超预期变化。） 证券分析师：李晨希 chenxi.li@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300525010002 在 2025 年 5 月下半月，我国经济出现了一些值得关注的边际变化。 第一，在 5 月 12 日中美于日内瓦达成关税临时协议后，我国出口状况有 所改善，但对美出口仍处于持续回调的态势中。尽管临时协定在短期内 带来一定改善，我国出口形势仍面临不确定性。关税摩擦的反复，以及 "抢出口"效应的逐步减弱，仍对未来出口走势构成一定压力。 第二，反映国内经济活动的指标在 5 月下半月整体维持稳定。高炉开工 率、磨机运转率、高速公路货车流量等指标与上半月基本持平，波动有 限。值得关注的是，轮胎开工率回升至 ...

每经编辑｜曾子建 6月3日，A股市场迎来六月行情开门红。沪指收盘报3361.98点，上涨0.43%。场内热门宽基标的A500指 数ETF（159351）日内微跌0.31%，全天获净申购4500万份。 A500指数ETF（159351）跟踪中证A500指数，由各行业市值较大、流动性较好的500只股票组成，行业 分布均衡，偏向大中盘风格，且新质生产力成分占比较高，为投资者配置A股代表性公司提供了工具。 场外投资者可以通过A500指数ETF联接基金（A类022453；C类022454）布局优质核心资产上行机遇。 消息面上，国家新闻出版署发布5月份国产网络游戏和进口网络游戏审批信息，共有130款国产网络游戏 获得版号，14款进口网络游戏获版号。5月份合计发放版号达到144个，继今年3月之后，再度刷新近两 年单月版号发放纪录。受利好消息刺激，成分股中多只游戏行业龙头迎来大涨。其中，掌趣科技涨超 14%，巨人网络涨近7%，完美世界涨超5%。此外，医药类成分股维持强势，华海药业、贝达药业均涨 超7%。 券商机构指出，短期市场受内外扰动交织影响，但政策托底、盈利修复及人民币资产吸引力构成支撑， 配置上以"核心资产为盾，科技成 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound on June 3, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.43%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.16%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.48% [1] - Over 3,300 stocks in the market saw gains, with a total trading volume of 1.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 22.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The market's recent performance has shown a "two ups and one down" pattern over the last three trading days, indicating volatility but limited cumulative gains [2] Sector Performance - The leading sectors included beauty care (+4.04%), precious metals (+3.76%), and chemical pharmaceuticals (+3.38%), while sectors like automotive, steel, and liquor saw declines [1][4] - The banking sector showed strong performance, with bank stocks rising by 2.17%, reaching a nearly 10-year high, although still below the historical peak from June 2015 [6][5] Investment Insights - The current market sentiment indicates a low likelihood of a significant downturn, with expectations of continued oscillation unless there is a substantial increase in trading volume [2] - The market is becoming desensitized to tariff-related news, suggesting a potential for rebounds when the market approaches lower support levels [3] - According to research from Everbright Securities, the market is expected to favor defensive and undervalued sectors such as coal, public utilities, banking, and non-bank financials [3] Upcoming Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators are set to be released on June 9 (CPI and PPI) and June 16 (economic data), with the Federal Reserve's meeting on June 17-18 being a significant event for market observation [3] ETF Performance - ETFs related to gold, gaming, and banking showed leading performance, with gold stock ETFs rising by 3.38% and gaming ETFs by 3.07% [13] - The performance of certain thematic ETFs, such as those in the medical and agricultural sectors, lagged behind their respective sectors due to the absence of key stocks in their holdings [14] Strategic Focus Areas - The market is currently focusing on three main themes: domestic consumption, domestic substitution, and sectors underweighted by public funds, with recommendations to monitor industries like home goods, food processing, and financial services [15]

Core Viewpoint - Hyaluronic acid is not just a moisturizing agent but has vast applications in pharmaceuticals, medical aesthetics, skincare, and health foods, indicating a significant growth potential in various sectors [1][2][4]. Industry Overview - The hyaluronic acid market is primarily dominated by three major companies: Huaxi Biological, Aimeike, and Haohai Biological, collectively referred to as the "big three" in the industry, with market capitalizations exceeding 100 billion yuan for Huaxi Biological and Aimeike at one point [2][3]. - In 2023, China accounted for 84% of the global hyaluronic acid raw material sales, establishing itself as the largest producer, with Shandong province being the key production hub [7][8]. Application Scenarios - Hyaluronic acid is widely used in the medical aesthetics sector, particularly in non-surgical procedures like water light needles and injection fillers, due to its excellent moisture retention and filling properties [3][4]. - The applications of hyaluronic acid have expanded from ophthalmology to include various medical fields, such as joint lubrication, vascular permeability regulation, and wound healing [5][14]. Technological Advancements - Huaxi Biological has significantly improved the production efficiency of hyaluronic acid through microbial fermentation technology, increasing the yield from 3g/L to 12-14g/L and reducing production time from 72 hours to 18 hours [8][13]. - The introduction of cross-linking technology has transformed hyaluronic acid from a liquid to a gel state, extending its metabolic duration in the body and facilitating its use in aesthetic procedures [5][8]. Market Challenges - The industry faces challenges such as overcapacity and price wars due to an influx of competitors, leading to a significant drop in raw material prices from thousands to hundreds of yuan [8][9]. - Major companies have reported varying degrees of performance challenges since 2022, with Huaxi Biological's functional skincare and food businesses experiencing declines [9]. Future Directions - The future of hyaluronic acid lies in expanding its applications in medical devices and developing new products that combine hyaluronic acid with other ingredients for enhanced therapeutic effects [11][12]. - Companies are exploring regenerative capabilities of hyaluronic acid, focusing on its dual functions of filling and regeneration, which could lead to innovative product offerings [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - The forum held by Taikang Online on its tenth anniversary focused on the integration of commercial insurance and the pharmaceutical industry, aiming to promote high-quality development in commercial health insurance [1][5] Group 1: Industry Trends - The health insurance premium income in the insurance industry is expected to approach 1 trillion yuan in 2024, driven by favorable national policies [2] - Approximately 40% of the population in China is in a "non-standard health state," indicating a strong demand for health insurance among those with pre-existing conditions [2] - The traditional view of commercial insurance as a precautionary measure is shifting towards addressing the needs of individuals already facing health issues [2] Group 2: Product Development - Taikang Online has developed a comprehensive insurance product system covering the entire disease cycle for individuals with pre-existing conditions, including cancer recurrence insurance products [3] Group 3: Collaborative Ecosystem - The forum highlighted the importance of multi-party collaboration in building an integrated ecosystem, with emphasis on diverse payment solutions to enhance patient access to medications [4] - The collaboration between public hospitals and commercial insurance is seen as a key driver for high-quality development, allowing for innovative insurance product designs and data utilization [4] - Taikang Medical and Taikang Online are working closely to explore single-disease insurance products, creating a win-win situation for insurance providers, healthcare facilities, and consumers [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Taikang Online aims to transition from being merely a "payer" to a "health promoter," focusing on solutions for individuals with pre-existing conditions and creating a comprehensive health service ecosystem [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the Hong Kong stock market [2][4]. Core Viewpoints - The hot IPO market provides more investment options for Hong Kong stocks, supported by upward revisions in earnings, increasing southbound capital, and a weakening US dollar index [2][64]. - The report suggests holding positions in Hong Kong stocks, with no further accumulation above 22,500 points [2]. - The report emphasizes a shift from sentiment-driven to earnings-driven market dynamics in A-shares, indicating a correlation between performance and earnings revisions [2][50][53]. Summary by Sections US Market Outlook - The report predicts a rapid rise in US core inflation to around 3.8% in the second half of the year, driven by tariff-induced price increases [2][10]. - It highlights significant volatility expected in US stock and bond markets in Q3, advising investors to prepare for uncertainty [2][10]. A-Share Market Insights - Following Q1 earnings reports, there is a notable performance divergence among sectors, with earnings-driven and undervalued stocks becoming the main focus [2][50]. - Analysts have revised earnings forecasts for various indices, with significant downward adjustments for the STAR 50 index and upward revisions for dividend, CSI 500, Shenzhen Component, and CSI 1000 indices [2][50]. Hong Kong Stock Market Analysis - The report identifies key sectors for investment: cloud computing (Tencent and Alibaba), new consumption and pharmaceuticals, dividend stocks (telecoms, banks, public utilities), and opportunities in new IPOs [2][64]. - The report notes that the median increase in share price for new IPOs with a market cap over 30 billion HKD has reached 128% this year [2][72]. - It emphasizes the strong correlation between the performance of Hong Kong stocks and earnings revisions, suggesting a focus on stocks with upward earnings revisions [2][75].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Chinese stock market, specifically the Shanghai Composite Index and various sectors including banking, non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, military industry, and coal. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Conditions**: The current market is in a narrow fluctuation pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index oscillating between 3,432 and 3,186 points. Despite some sporadic positive news, the marginal impact is limited [1][9][11]. 2. **Technical Analysis**: There is a demand for adjustment in the Shanghai Composite Index, which may first attempt to rise before forming a wedge pattern and then decline, or it may directly adjust to around 3,270 points. The support levels at 3,186 to 3,201 points provide a triple technical protection, indicating a low risk of a crash [1][6][7]. 3. **Investment Strategy**: It is advised to maintain current mid-term positions without excessively reducing holdings. If there is a rapid pullback to the 3,186-3,201 point range, it is suggested to consider increasing positions. Attention should be paid to leading sectors and flexible adjustments to the portfolio structure [1][8][22]. 4. **Sector Performance**: Recent standout sectors include innovative pharmaceuticals and new consumer goods, small-cap stocks, and banking stocks. However, the latter has seen many investors miss timely allocations [4][30]. 5. **Future Market Outlook**: The market is expected to continue its oscillation, with potential challenges at 3,432 points. If this level is breached, it may lead to an ABC structure adjustment. Conversely, a direct decline could lead to a narrow range of fluctuations [11][13][21]. 6. **Brokerage Sector Importance**: The brokerage sector is crucial in the current market, closely mirroring the Shanghai Composite Index. A decline to the annual line could synchronize with the index's movements, creating positive expectations for future trends [14][15][17][19]. 7. **Public Fund Regulations**: New regulations for public funds will significantly impact performance assessments for fund managers, making it essential to outperform benchmarks [25][31]. 8. **Recommended Sectors**: In the current uncertain environment, the focus is on banking, non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, military, and coal sectors, which are deemed to have a certain level of certainty and can provide a balanced approach [2][30][31]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Market Sentiment**: The current market sentiment is described as low and indecisive, with investors feeling confused due to the lack of clear upward or downward movement [3]. 2. **Impact of External Factors**: The potential influence of external events, such as negative news from the U.S. or political developments, could lead to market fluctuations, but these may also present buying opportunities [20]. 3. **Investment Strategies**: Two main strategies are highlighted: the "bullet strategy" which focuses on concentrated investments in specific sectors, and the "dumbbell strategy" which emphasizes balanced diversification [26][27][28]. This comprehensive summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a clear overview of the current market dynamics and strategic considerations for investors.

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 港股恒生指数略微下跌0.57%。港股科技股下跌0.7%。 港股在4月初遇到关税危机，短期大幅下跌。 之后港股连续6周上涨，收复了4月初的跌幅。 最近几个交易日港股出现了小幅波动。 原因还是跟关税有关。 美国联邦法院，本周阻止了特朗普4月2日的关税政策生效。 大家端午安康～ 端午假期马上就要结束了。 假期里A股没有交易，A股的估值也没有变化。 1. 不过港股是有交易的。 周一港股开盘。 不过随后特朗普政府又上诉，让美国联邦巡回上诉法院，暂时恢复关于提高关税的政策。 也由此引发最近几天全球股票市场波动。 例如周一亚太其他地区股票市场也出现波动，日股周一下跌1.3%。 欧美市场周一开盘后也小幅下跌。 2. 关税引发全球股票市场小幅波动，黄金的走势就比较坚挺。 最近黄金跟全球股票市场有明显的负相关。 之前咱们直播课介绍过，黄金跟美元呈现负相关。 点击查看：《 黄金的投资价值如何，现在还能买吗？ 》 美元实际利率提升，或者美元汇率升值，都有可能会黄金不利。 4月初全球股市下跌，黄金就上涨较多； 之后几周，全球股票市场整体反弹，黄金出现最近2-3年最大的短期回撤； 到最近一两周，全 ...