北京时间1月16日，伦敦金属交易所(LME)铝期货价格区间震荡，开盘报3166美元/吨，现报3155美元/ 吨，跌幅0.52%，盘中最高触及3174美元/吨，最低下探3153.5美元/吨。 【铝市场消息速递】 更新时间： LME铝期货行情回顾： 1月15日伦敦金属交易所(LME)铝期货行情 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 LME铝 3187.0 3187.0 3136.0 3171.5 -0.56% 本周，几内亚低品位铝土矿录得一笔新成交，船期为1月，CIF成交价60美元/干吨，矿石品位参照 42.5/2.5标准定价。 1月15日，上期所铝期货仓单138083吨，环比上个交易日增加4518吨。 1月15日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铝注册仓单446575吨。注销仓单43425吨，减少2000吨。铝库存 490000吨，减少2000吨。 ...

Core Insights - The industrial metal sector is showing relative strength, with the non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) rising by 0.97% and achieving a six-day winning streak, accumulating a year-to-date increase of 14.23% [1][2] - The non-ferrous metal ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past 16 days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 2.703 billion and a total of 9.4 billion in inflows [1] - The ETF's net asset value has increased by 144.82% over the past two years, ranking 56th out of 2,510 index stock funds, placing it in the top 2.23% [1] Fund Performance - The non-ferrous metal ETF has a maximum monthly return of 27.00% since its inception, with the longest streak of consecutive monthly gains being six months and the highest cumulative gain during that period being 69.57% [1] - The average return during the months of increase is 9.76% [1] Sector Composition - The non-ferrous metal ETF closely tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Non-Ferrous Metal Theme Index, focusing on metals such as gold, copper, aluminum, rare earths, tungsten, lithium, and cobalt, with respective weights of 33.8%, 15.7%, 11.9%, 8.9%, and 6.8% [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 52.98% of the total, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and others [2] Stock Performance - Key stocks within the ETF include Zijin Mining (-0.18%), Northern Rare Earth (+1.98%), and Luoyang Molybdenum (+2.83%), among others, with varying weightings in the index [3]

Core Insights - In 2025, Guangxi's foreign trade showed strong resilience, with a total import and export value of 819.26 billion yuan, marking an 8.4% year-on-year growth, surpassing both scale and growth rate of 8% for the first time [1] - Guangxi ranked 13th nationally and 2nd in the western region for foreign trade scale, with a growth rate exceeding the national average by 4.6 percentage points, placing it 11th nationally and 7th in the western region [1] Group 1: Trade with ASEAN - In 2025, Guangxi's trade with ASEAN reached 429.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%, accounting for nearly half of Guangxi's total foreign trade [2] - ASEAN has maintained its position as Guangxi's largest trading partner for 26 consecutive years, with trade with Vietnam exceeding 300 billion yuan for the first time, growing by 5.4% [2] - Trade with Indonesia, Singapore, and Myanmar saw growth rates exceeding 40% [2] Group 2: Market Diversification - Guangxi has successfully diversified its markets, with exports to Latin America, the Middle East, Africa, and the EU reaching 121.95 billion yuan, 51.1 billion yuan, 47.12 billion yuan, and 28.15 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 27.4%, 21.6%, 15.8%, and 46.3% [2] - The number of trading entities with import and export records reached 6,155, an increase of 550 from the previous year, indicating enhanced vitality in foreign trade [2] Group 3: Role of Enterprises - Private enterprises played a crucial role in foreign trade, with imports and exports totaling 563.45 billion yuan, a 4.7% increase, accounting for nearly 70% of Guangxi's foreign trade [2] - State-owned and foreign enterprises also contributed significantly, with imports and exports of 151.91 billion yuan and 74.62 billion yuan respectively, growing by 22.7% and 23.6% [2] Group 4: Industrial Growth - Guangxi's industrial economy has steadily grown, supporting high-quality foreign trade development, with exports of electronic information products reaching 89.34 billion yuan, a 36.9% increase [3] - Exports of automotive parts and lithium batteries were 31.11 billion yuan and 25.38 billion yuan, growing by 24.6% and 60.7% respectively [3] - Imports of major commodities, driven by key industries such as non-ferrous metals and steel, totaled 194.16 billion yuan, a 9% increase, accounting for nearly 60% of Guangxi's total imports [3]

Summary of the Conference Call on Tin Metal Industry Industry Overview - The tin metal industry is experiencing a short-term increase in export orders due to demand from end-use sectors like batteries and photovoltaic (PV) industries, with an expected increase of approximately 2,000 tons in the first quarter [1][3] - The current spot market for tin is weak, with reduced purchasing willingness from downstream buyers, as evidenced by the deep water quotation for Yunzi brand at around 700 RMB per ton and overseas inventory at approximately 6,000 tons, indicating low trading activity [1][6][7] Key Points on Supply and Demand - In the medium to long term, the supply growth rate in the tin market is low, with an average annual increase of about 1%. Emerging technologies such as AI are expected to create new demand growth points, making the supply-demand fundamentals similar to those of the copper market [1][4] - China accounts for about 25% of global tin production and reserves, primarily concentrated in Yunnan, Guangxi, and Inner Mongolia. The Alpha Mining area in Africa is expected to become a significant growth region, although geopolitical risks remain a key concern [1][4] Notable Companies and Investment Opportunities - Key companies to watch in the tin sector include: - Xiyu Co., with a self-owned production capacity of 323,000 tons and plans to add 6,000 tons [1][5] - Zinc smelting companies, currently with a capacity of 9,000 tons and plans to add nearly 20,000 tons by 2028 [1][5] - Huaxi Nonferrous, which is expected to benefit from price increases [1][5] Supply Chain Dynamics - Myanmar's tin production is currently hindered by issues related to explosive approvals, but is expected to recover to a monthly production level of 1,500 tons by late January [1][8] - Indonesia's RKB mine is projected to produce 60,000 tons this year, which is neutral for the market [1][8] - The Alpha Mining area in Africa is expected to recover to an annual production level of 20,000 tons by 2027, while South America, particularly Peru, is maintaining stable production with a slight overall increase expected [1][9][10] Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The main reasons for the expected rise in tin prices in 2026 include supply disruptions and the impact of export tax rebate policies, particularly in the photovoltaic and battery sectors [2][21] - The first quarter is typically a low-demand season, but the second quarter may see a demand increase if Christmas orders recover and export tariffs ease. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate between 280,000 to 350,000 RMB, with significant volatility in the first quarter [2][21][22] Inventory and Downstream Activity - Current LME inventory is close to 6,000 tons, with domestic warehouse inventory exceeding 9,000 tons, indicating a historical high [1][16] - Downstream activity has been low due to high prices, with only a slight recovery in orders noted in December. The upcoming New Year and Spring Festival may lead to some replenishment, but overall downstream conditions remain precarious [1][16] Future Outlook - The global photovoltaic production is expected to reach around 600 GW by 2027, with China's output projected between 200-250 GW. This indicates a slight decline compared to previous years, although potential policy changes could provide new growth opportunities [1][17] - The tin plating industry is expected to grow by 3.6% in 2026, but export levels may face challenges in 2027 due to potential declines in overseas demand [1][18] Conclusion - The tin market is characterized by a complex interplay of supply constraints, emerging demand from new technologies, and geopolitical risks. Key players in the industry are positioned to benefit from price increases, but caution is advised due to potential volatility and market dynamics.

格隆汇1月16日｜A股市场有色金属股继续走强，其中，入选了格隆汇2026年"下注中国"十大核心资产 名单的洛阳钼业(603993.SH)盘中涨超4%报25.09元，再创历史新高。该股在2025年累涨210%后，今年 在截至今日的10个交易日内再度累涨超25%。 洛阳钼业昨晚发布公告，预计2025年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为200亿元到208亿元，同比增 加47.80%到53.71%。预计2025年度实现归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润为204亿元到 212亿元，同比增加55.50%到61.60%。公司2025年业绩同比大幅上升的原因系公司主要产品量价齐升、 运营成本有效管控。 ...

Group 1 - As of January 15, 2025, a total of 243 A-share listed companies have disclosed their performance forecasts, with 120 companies expecting positive results, indicating resilience in corporate operations and industry outlook [1] - Among the companies that disclosed their 2025 performance forecasts, 142 expect a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders exceeding 100%, with notable increases from companies like Huisheng Biological, Zhongtai Co., and Baiwei Storage [3] - For instance, Zhongke Lanyun anticipates a net profit of 1.4 billion to 1.43 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 366.51% to 376.51%, while its revenue is expected to be between 1.83 billion and 1.85 billion yuan [3] Group 2 - Industries such as semiconductors, biomedicine, chemicals, machinery, and non-ferrous metals are showing significant performance recovery among listed companies [3] - For example, Chifeng Gold expects a net profit of 3 billion to 3.2 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 70% to 81%, driven by a 49% rise in gold product sales prices [3]

Group 1 - The A-share market for non-ferrous metals continues to strengthen, with zinc companies reaching a limit-up, and several other companies like China Uranium, Hunan Silver, and Jiangxi Copper seeing significant gains [1] - Gold, silver, copper, and tin have all reached historical highs simultaneously, indicating strong investor interest and concerns over geopolitical tensions in regions like Venezuela and Iran [1] - Analysts suggest that investors are reassessing asset allocations in light of reshaped geopolitical and trade dynamics, with further upside potential for gold and silver prices [1] Group 2 - Specific stock performance includes: - Zinc Industry Co. (涨幅 8.28%, 总市值 84.50 billion, 年初至今涨幅 27.87%) - China Uranium (涨幅 7.32%, 总市值 155.6 billion, 年初至今涨幅 23.49%) - Hunan Silver (涨幅 7.02%, 总市值 31.8 billion, 年初至今涨幅 63.01%) - Jiangxi Copper (涨幅 6.50%, 总市值 228.6 billion, 年初至今涨幅 20.23%) - Xiamen Tungsten (涨幅 5.95%, 总市值 87.3 billion, 年初至今涨幅 33.97%) [2] - Other notable performers include Yunlu Co. (涨幅 4.70%, 总市值 13 billion, 年初至今涨幅 11.82%) and Western Mining (涨幅 4.49%, 总市值 76.5 billion, 年初至今涨幅 16.21%) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank has introduced a significant policy package aimed at supporting high-quality economic development, which includes various measures to enhance liquidity and support specific sectors [1][6]. Monetary Policy - The central bank has lowered the re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points [1][6]. - The quota for re-lending to support agriculture and small enterprises has been increased by 500 billion yuan, with a total quota of 1 trillion yuan specifically for private enterprises [1][6]. - The re-lending quota for technological innovation and technical transformation has been increased by 400 billion yuan, with an expanded support scope [1][6]. - The minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans has been reduced to 30% [1][6]. - The central bank indicated that there is still room for further rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions this year [1][6]. Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.33% at 4112.60 points, while the ChiNext Index rose 0.56% [1][6]. - Sector performance varied, with electronics, basic chemicals, and non-ferrous metals leading gains, while defense, media, and computer sectors experienced declines [1][6]. - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets decreased to 2.9 trillion yuan [1][6]. - In the U.S., major stock indices saw slight increases, with the Dow Jones up 0.6% at 49,442.44 points [1][6]. Strategy - The central bank's policy measures are expected to enhance market liquidity and strengthen the growth drivers for the technology sector within the equity market [3][8]. - The overall monetary policy remains accommodative, with the continuous release of liquidity expected to positively impact the equity market, providing upward momentum for stock indices [3][8]. - It is recommended to buy on dips for IC and IM contracts [3][8].

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is experiencing a downturn due to a combination of macroeconomic factors, weak demand from downstream industries, and a shift in supply expectations, leading to a potential short-term weak trading pattern for nickel prices [2][5]. Supply Side - The previous expectations of tightening Indonesian nickel ore quotas have weakened, reducing concerns about supply constraints [3]. - Both domestic and international visible inventories continue to accumulate, indicating that spot supply is not tight, which alleviates fears of resource shortages [3]. Demand Side - Overall demand for nickel from downstream sectors is weak, with stainless steel production hampered by high social inventories and a slow recovery in the real estate sector, leading steel mills to be cautious in raw material procurement [4]. - In the new energy sector, the production of ternary batteries has also seen a month-on-month decline, with first-quarter growth expectations falling [4]. - Both major demand drivers lack strong recovery momentum, making it difficult to support high prices [4]. Industry Chain Status - The nickel industry chain is facing a mismatch in supply and demand rhythms, with upstream nickel ore supply expectations shifting from tight to loose, while the midstream smelting capacity remains excessive [4]. - The recovery pace of demand in downstream stainless steel and new energy vehicles is relatively slow, leading to a concentration of industry chain profits towards the upstream resource end, while the mid and downstream processing and manufacturing sectors have weaker bargaining power [4]. Spot Trading and Price Forecast - The activity level in the spot market has decreased, with buyers showing a strong wait-and-see attitude, and some traders opting to accelerate sales to avoid price volatility risks [5]. - In summary, due to the dual impact of weakened supply contraction expectations and weak downstream demand, nickel prices are likely to maintain a short-term weak trading pattern [5].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong performance in the non-ferrous metal sector, with multiple companies reaching historical highs, driven by rising prices of gold, silver, copper, and tin amid geopolitical tensions [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Zinc Industry Co. saw a peak increase of 8.28%, with a total market value of 8.45 billion [2] - China Uranium Industry rose by 7.32%, with a market capitalization of 155.6 billion [2] - Hunan Silver increased by 7.02%, with a market value of 31.8 billion [2] - Jiangxi Copper surged by 6.50%, reaching a market cap of 228.6 billion [2] - Xiamen Tungsten climbed by 5.95%, with a total market value of 87.3 billion [2] - Yunlu Co. and Western Mining both increased by over 4%, with market values of 13 billion and 76.5 billion respectively [2] Group 2: Metal Prices and Investor Sentiment - Gold, silver, copper, and tin have all reached historical highs, indicating strong investor interest [1] - Analysts suggest that concerns over geopolitical tensions, particularly in Venezuela and Iran, are prompting investors to reassess asset allocations [1] - There is potential for further increases in gold and silver prices as the market reacts to changing geopolitical and trade dynamics [1]