Equity Market Review and Outlook - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.27%, the CSI 300 dropped by 1.33%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 3.28% during the week of February 2-6, 2026, amid significant volatility in global resource futures and earnings disclosures from major US tech companies [1][4] - A-shares experienced increased volatility, with a notable drop of 100 points on Monday, followed by a recovery on Tuesday, and a shift to a fluctuating market for the rest of the week, influenced by upstream resource stocks and internet giants [4][5] - The market's risk appetite was constrained, with an average daily trading volume of 24,032 billion, reflecting a decrease from the previous week [4] - The technology sector is becoming increasingly sensitive to negative news, with potential pressure on tech styles as positive factors may be realized following the Two Sessions after the Spring Festival [5] Fixed Income Market Review and Outlook - The bond market saw a flattening yield curve during the week, with the 1-year government bond yield rising by 1.80 basis points to 1.32%, while the 10-year and 30-year yields fell to 1.81% and 2.25%, respectively [2][6] - The bond market is currently experiencing a strong oscillation, with some risk-averse funds flowing into bonds due to increased stock market volatility before the holiday [6][7] - The People's Bank of China has been actively injecting liquidity, with a net injection of 700 billion yuan through MLF in January, and the bond market is expected to remain stable without significant fluctuations in the short term [7] REITs Market Overview - The CSI REITs total return index fell by 0.91% to 1,042.84 points during the week, with most sectors declining, particularly consumption, data centers, and industrial parks [8] - Four new public REITs made progress in the primary market, indicating ongoing developments in the sector [8] Fund Index Performance Tracking - The monetary enhancement strategy index increased by 0.03% for the week, while the short-term bond fund index rose by 0.04% [11] - The mid-to-long-term bond fund index saw a gain of 0.09%, while the low-volatility fixed income plus fund index decreased by 0.04% [11] - The REITs fund index experienced a significant drop of 1.86%, reflecting the overall market trend [11] Investment Strategy Indices - The active stock fund selection index focuses on 15 funds with equal weight, emphasizing performance competitiveness and style stability [12] - The value stock fund selection index includes deep value and quality value styles, assessing companies based on absolute valuation levels and cash flow efficiency [14] - The growth stock fund selection index aims to capture high-growth opportunities, focusing on companies with significant future potential [17] Industry Theme Indices - The pharmaceutical stock fund selection index is constructed based on the intersection of fund holdings and representative indices, ensuring a minimum purity of 60% [19] - The consumer stock fund selection index targets funds with significant holdings in consumer-related sectors, maintaining a minimum purity of 50% [21] - The technology stock fund selection index is based on funds with substantial investments in technology sectors, also ensuring a minimum purity of 60% [24] Other Fixed Income Indices - The convertible bond fund selection index focuses on funds with a high proportion of convertible bonds, assessing performance and risk management [43] - The QDII bond fund selection index includes overseas bonds, prioritizing funds with stable returns and good risk control [44] - The REITs fund selection index emphasizes funds with stable cash flows from quality infrastructure projects [46]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market indices showed a collective rebound, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.76% to close at 27,027.16 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 1.34% to 5,417.6 points, and the National Enterprises Index up by 1.52% to 9,168.33 points [1] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector led the gains, with notable increases including: - Lanqi Technology up by 63.72% to 175.000 HKD - QPL International rising by 13.75% - Zhaoyi Innovation increasing by 11.43% to 314.000 HKD [2] Durable Consumer Goods Sector - The durable consumer goods sector also performed well, highlighted by: - Yingsheng Science rising nearly 16% - Nanhua Group Holdings increasing by nearly 12% - Shetu Holdings up by nearly 10% [3] Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector saw significant gains, with: - China Metal Utilization up by over 10% to 0.540 HKD - Southern Manganese Industry increasing by over 9% - CGN Mining rising by nearly 9% to 4.550 HKD [4][5] Telecommunications Sector - The telecommunications sector experienced declines, with: - Zhonggan Communication falling over 12% to 0.450 HKD - Huanlian Lianxun down over 6% - Asia Pacific Satellite decreasing by nearly 3% [6] Individual Stock Movements - Zhipu saw a significant increase, with its stock price rising over 32% to reach a high of 287.8 HKD, closing at 276.8 HKD, marking a 36.22% increase [6] - Zhipu's business model is supported by a comprehensive product matrix, with projected revenue of 190 million HKD in the first half of 2025, indicating strong commercial capabilities [7] - Lanqi Technology officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with its H-shares closing at 175 HKD, reflecting a 63.72% increase from its issue price of 106.89 HKD [7]

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇2月9日｜港股三大指数集体上涨，恒生指数涨1.76%重回27000点上方，国企指数、恒生科技指 数分别上涨1.52%及1.34%。上周五美股大涨，以及金银等大宗商品止跌回升，市场情绪转好。 具体盘面上，大型科技股、大金融股(保险、券商)等权重多数活跃带领大市走俏，其中百度盘中涨幅约 4%，中国平安涨近5%领衔内险股上涨；马斯克表示3年内太空会是部署AI最便宜的地方，智谱一度飙 升超40%领衔AI应用概念股，且股价创上市新高，金山云、迈富时、美图公司皆走强；国泰海通指关注 企稳后的有色金属布局机会，黄金股带领有色金属股齐涨；半导体股、风电股、重型机械股、濠赌股、 煤炭股、餐饮股、内房股等纷纷上涨。 另一方面，三大运营商逆市受压，中国电信跌近3%，上周五拉升的茶饮料概念股多股走低，美伊谈判 重启，油价震荡波动，三桶油皆有跌幅。此外，澜起科技上市首日大涨近64%。(格隆汇) ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a collective rise, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 1.76% to surpass the 27,000-point mark, driven by positive market sentiment following a significant rise in US stocks and a rebound in commodities like gold and silver [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.76%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.52% and 1.34%, respectively [1] - Major technology and financial stocks were active, contributing to the market's upward movement, with Baidu rising approximately 4% and China Ping An leading insurance stocks with a nearly 5% increase [1] Group 2: Sector Highlights - AI application stocks surged, with Zhizhu Technology soaring over 40% to reach a new high following Elon Musk's statement about AI deployment in space [1] - Gold stocks led a rally in the metals sector, with a focus on opportunities in non-ferrous metals as indicated by Guotai Junan [1] - Other sectors such as semiconductors, wind power, heavy machinery, gambling, coal, dining, and domestic real estate stocks also saw gains [1] Group 3: Underperforming Stocks - The three major telecom operators faced pressure, with China Telecom declining nearly 3% [1] - Several beverage stocks that had risen previously experienced declines, and the oil prices showed volatility amid renewed US-Iran negotiations, affecting the three major oil companies [1] - Lanke Technology saw a significant increase of nearly 64% on its first trading day [1]

目 录 | | 每日报告精选（2026-02-06 09:00——2026-02-09 15:00） 3 | | | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观周报：《春节效应延续》2026-02-08 3 | | |  | 宏观周报：《美国：制造业景气度超季节回升》2026-02-08 3 | | |  | 策略周报：《坚定信心，持股过节》2026-02-08 3 | | |  | 策略专题报告：《地方两会聚焦扩内需与强科技》2026-02-08 4 | | |  | 策略观察：《成交活跃度下降，万得全 估值微跌》2026-02-08 5 A | | |  | 行业跟踪报告：餐饮《千问加码外卖补贴，行业价格战趋缓》2026-02-09 6 | | |  | 行业跟踪报告：钢铁《淡季维持累库趋势，但库存处于历史低位》2026-02-09 7 | | |  | 行业跟踪报告：有色金属《关注企稳后的布局机会》2026-02-09 7 | | |  | 行业跟踪报告：钢铁《钢铁行业周报数据库 20260208》2026-02-09 8 | | |  | 行业周报：金融《建议左侧增持非银板 ...

Market Overview - The A-share and stock index futures market are exhibiting distinct "pre-holiday characteristics" as the Spring Festival approaches, aligning with historical patterns of risk aversion and market sentiment contraction [1] - Trading volume has significantly shrunk, with the average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets dropping to around 2.5 trillion yuan in February, down from 3 trillion yuan in January [1] - The market is experiencing a cautious sentiment, with traders preferring short-term speculative trades rather than long-term holdings, reflecting increased uncertainty [1] Trading Behavior - The last week before the holiday is expected to see a continued decline in average daily trading volume due to traders' inclination to secure profits and a lack of willingness for new capital to enter the market [2] - The margin financing scale has also decreased, indicating a decline in risk appetite and cautious trading sentiment ahead of the holiday [2] - The current margin financing balance accounts for only 2.62% of the A-share market's circulating market value, suggesting a healthy market structure [2] Industry Performance - In the first week of February, there was a notable divergence in industry performance, with food and beverage, beauty care, transportation, and banking sectors showing gains, while sectors like non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, electronics, and petrochemicals faced declines [3] - Defensive sectors such as food and beverage and banking are performing better, aligning with the trend of risk-averse capital seeking stable returns [3] - The market sentiment has shifted from previous exuberance to a more rational phase, with long-term investors focusing on valuation and earnings certainty [3] Futures Market Dynamics - The significant divergence in performance among stock index futures is attributed to the varying styles in the spot market, with the price spread between IC and IH narrowing after reaching a historical high [4] - The price spread is expected to continue contracting in February, aligning with the mean reversion logic of stock index futures [4] - Post-holiday, there is a strong likelihood of a "New Year rally," driven by the return of previously withdrawn funds and positive market sentiment [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sector [5] Core Insights - The report highlights a general decline in non-ferrous metal prices, while gold, tungsten, molybdenum, and vanadium prices have increased on a month-on-month basis [1] - The liquidity environment for small and medium enterprises has improved, with the BCI index rising by 6.62% to 50.27 in January 2026 [11] - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing low inventory levels for hot-rolled steel, indicating potential supply constraints [21] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI index for small and medium enterprises increased to 50.27, reflecting a positive shift in financing conditions [11] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -4.7 percentage points in December 2025, indicating a contraction in liquidity [11] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Weekly inventory levels for hot-rolled steel are at a five-year low, with rebar prices down by 0.93% [21] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 86%, unchanged from the previous week [9] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at a five-year high, while the prices for cold-rolled, copper, and aluminum have decreased [2] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 23,110 CNY/ton, down 6.21% from the previous week [2] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.33%, with the engineering machinery sector showing the best performance at +4.35% [4] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.50, indicating potential undervaluation [4] Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and glass remain low, with the glass operating rate at 73.89% [1][76] - The cumulative year-on-year change in completed residential area was -18.10% for 2025 [76]

有色ETF汇添富（159652）标的指数成分股多数冲高，北方稀土涨超5%，紫金矿业、兴业银锡涨超4%，洛阳钼业、中金黄金等涨超2%，华友钴业、中国铝 业等微涨。 【有色ETF汇添富（159652）标的指数前十大成分股】 | 序号 | 代码 | 名标 | 申万一级行业 | 涨跌幅 | 估算权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 601899 | 崇舍矿业 | 有色金属 | 4.52% | 14.74% | | 2 | 603993 | 洛阳镇小 | 有色全属 | 2.27% | 7.77% | | 3 | 600111 | 北方稀土 | 有色全居 | 5.57% | 5.10% | | র্ব | 603799 | 华友钻业 | 有色全属 | 0.78% | 4.53% | | ਟ | 601600 | 中国铝业 | 有色全属 | 0.85% | 4.14% | | 6 | 600489 | 中金黄金 | 有色全属 | 2.47% | 3.48% | | 7 | 600547 | 山东黄金 | 有色全居 | 1.49% | 3.37% | | 8 | 0 ...

春节将至，投资者普遍关注节前节后港股市场表现规律。对此广发证券指出，历史数据显示，恒生指数在春节前3个交易日上涨概率高达82%，且上涨幅度 普遍较大。这反映出节前资金行为趋同，短期做多情绪明显。 图 2:春季~两会,A股上涨明显;港股没有明显的目历效应 St Friday ■ 上涨概率:春节->两会(2010年~2015年 100% 93.8% -93.8% 93.8% 87.5% 90% 81.39 it 80% 72.7% ter 2 5: 70% 62.5% 62.5% 56.3% 54 .! 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% el ck 02月 717 班 极 | 上涨概率 | 圣诞节-春节前 | 春节后-两会 | 两会期间 | 两会-3月底 | 1月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 恒生科技 | 72.7% | 72.7% | 45.5% | 50.0% | 63.6% | | 恒生指数 | 80.0% | 46.7% | 40.0% | 42.9% | 73.3% | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 73.3% | 40.0% | ...

Core Viewpoint - The continuous increase in gold holdings by the People's Bank of China for 15 consecutive months, along with spot gold prices returning to $5,000 per ounce, has led to a significant rise in the performance of the Huabao Nonferrous Metal ETF (159876), which saw an intraday increase of over 2.5% and is currently up by 1.89% [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Huabao Nonferrous Metal ETF (159876) is currently trading at 1.133, with a rise of 0.021 (1.89%) [2] - The ETF is a financing and margin trading target, providing an efficient tool for investors to gain exposure to the nonferrous metal sector [4] Group 2: Sector Performance - Major stocks in the nonferrous metal sector, such as Shenghe Resources and Hunan Silver, have surged over 9%, while Silver Nonferrous and others have also shown significant gains [3] - The overall market for nonferrous metals is expected to benefit from structural demand driven by AI computing expansion and energy transition, indicating that the structural market for commodities may not have ended [4]