Core Viewpoint - The cyclical sector, represented by non-ferrous metals, has been a standout theme in the A-share market this year, driven by a weaker dollar and marginally looser global liquidity, indicating a significant medium to long-term trend [1][11]. Group 1: Background and Market Dynamics - The evolution of investment styles in the A-share market over the past 30 years shows that cyclical fund managers have experienced fluctuations in market supply and individual fortunes, correlating with market cycles [1][11]. - In the 1990s to early 2000s, cyclical industries thrived during China's rapid economic growth, leading to a golden era for cyclical fund managers, while the rise of new industries shifted the focus towards growth-style fund managers [1][11]. - A notable trend is that most cyclical fund managers are from the 70s and early 80s, while younger managers focusing on technology and growth are predominantly from the late 80s and 90s [1][11]. Group 2: Profile of Chen Ziyang - Chen Ziyang, a rare 90s-born cyclical fund manager, has a profound understanding of cycles, having experienced both bull and bear markets since entering the industry [2][13]. - After graduating from Tsinghua University in 2017, Chen joined Great Wall Fund, initially focusing on steel and non-ferrous metals, later expanding to home appliances, construction materials, chemicals, and transportation [2][13]. - His early career coincided with the supply-side reform, witnessing significant profit expansion in the steel sector, but also the pitfalls of capacity expansion leading to industry downturns [2][13]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Market Outlook - Chen's investment strategy revolves around the revaluation of resource products, recovery of midstream manufacturing, and valuation repair logic, adapting to macro changes [3][14]. - For 2026, Chen maintains an optimistic outlook, citing stable economic growth and accommodative monetary and fiscal policies as supportive for equity markets [4][15]. - Specific investment opportunities identified include: 1. Non-ferrous metals: Despite significant gains in 2025, the fundamentals remain strong with no valuation bubble, particularly in small metals and precious metals due to central bank purchases and asset allocation trends [5][17]. 2. Chemical industry: With declining capital expenditures and nearing the end of new capacity investments, the industry is expected to shift from surplus to balance, presenting recovery potential [5][17]. 3. Real estate: A cautious stance is taken, recognizing structural opportunities despite overall market challenges [5][17][18]. Group 4: Investment Framework - Chen emphasizes the importance of understanding and respecting cycles, with a clear logic that profitable industries attract capital, leading to increased competition and reduced profitability, followed by necessary adjustments [8][20]. - His investment approach focuses on identifying undervalued opportunities during low ROE and PB periods, aiming for a balance between win rates and payoff [8][20]. - Chen's strategy also involves diversifying across different sectors to mitigate risks associated with single-cycle exposure, reflecting a continuous evolution in his research and investment practices [8][21].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Huabao Nonferrous ETF (159876), which opened with a gain of 0.41% at 1.221 yuan [1] - The major holdings of the Huabao Nonferrous ETF include Zijin Mining, which rose by 0.66%, and Ganfeng Lithium, which increased by 4.44% [1] - The fund's performance benchmark is the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index return, with a total return of 142.70% since its establishment on March 12, 2021, and a one-month return of 1.98% [1] Group 2 - The fund is managed by Huabao Fund Management Co., Ltd., with Chen Jianhua as the fund manager [1] - Other notable stock performances include Luoyang Molybdenum rising by 1.19%, China Aluminum increasing by 1.63%, and Northern Rare Earth decreasing by 0.12% [1] - The article provides a snapshot of the ETF's performance and its key holdings, reflecting the current trends in the nonferrous metals sector [1]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting forecasts the market development status and competitive landscape of the non-ferrous metals industry in China from 2026 to 2032 [1] Price Trends - The market price of zinc ingots (0) in early February 2026 is projected to be 24,751.4 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.62% and a month-on-month increase of 0.09% [1] - Over the past five years, the highest price for zinc ingots (0) during the same period was recorded in early February 2022, reaching 25,355 yuan per ton [1]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting forecasts the market development status and competitive landscape of the non-ferrous metals industry in China from 2026 to 2032 [1] Price Trends - The market price of lead ingot (1) in early February 2026 is reported to be 16,464.3 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.69% and a month-on-month decline of 2.37% [1] - The highest price recorded in the same period over the past five years was in early February 2025, reaching 16,918.8 yuan/ton [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Penghua Nonferrous ETF (159880), which opened with a gain of 1.30% at 2.416 yuan on February 26 [1] - The major holdings of the Penghua Nonferrous ETF include Zijin Mining, which rose by 0.66%, Luoyang Molybdenum, which increased by 1.19%, Northern Rare Earth, which fell by 0.12%, and Huayou Cobalt, which gained 3.39% [1] - Other notable stock performances include China Aluminum rising by 1.63%, Ganfeng Lithium increasing by 4.44%, Yun Aluminum rising by 1.08%, Shandong Gold remaining unchanged, Zhongjin Gold decreasing by 0.60%, and Tianqi Lithium rising by 5.91% [1] Group 2 - The performance benchmark for the Penghua Nonferrous ETF is the National Index of Nonferrous Metals Industry, managed by Penghua Fund Management Co., Ltd. [1] - The fund manager is Yan Dong, and since its establishment on March 8, 2021, the fund has achieved a return of 138.66%, with a return of 3.18% over the past month [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Copper prices are rising due to improved sentiment [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 102,890 with a daily increase of 1.36%, and the overnight closing price was 103,040 with an overnight increase of 0.15%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 13,350 with a daily increase of 1.17%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper Index was 291,554, an increase of 93,583 from the previous day, and the position was 556,155, a decrease of 7,927 from the previous day. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 18,795, a decrease of 6,860 from the previous day, and the position was 321,000, an increase of 4,315 from the previous day [1] - **Inventory Data**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 287,806, an increase of 10,717 from the previous day. The LME Copper inventory was 249,650, an increase of 6,475 from the previous day, and the注销仓单 ratio was 5.02%, an increase of 0.52% from the previous day [1] - **Spread Data**: The LME Copper premium/discount was -85.04, a decrease of 1.44 from the previous day. The bonded warehouse receipt premium was 51, a decrease of 2 from the previous day. The bonded bill of lading premium was 48, a decrease of 1 from the previous day. The price of Shanghai 1 bright copper was 90,100, an increase of 300 from the previous day. The spot-futures near-month spread was -180, a decrease of 430 from the previous day. The near-month contract to the next contract spread was -430, a decrease of 130 from the previous day. The cost of the near-month contract and the next contract spread arbitrage was 307. The spread between Shanghai copper spot and LME cash was -511, a decrease of 359 from the previous day. The spread between Shanghai copper continuous third contract and LME 3M was -159, an increase of 136 from the previous day. The spread between Shanghai copper spot and Shanghai 1 recycled copper was 3,189, a decrease of 80 from the previous day. The recycled copper import profit and loss was 41, a decrease of 418 from the previous day [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: Investors bet that NVIDIA's strong performance will reignite enthusiasm for AI trading, driving technology stocks to rebound for the second consecutive trading day. Shanghai issued the "Shanghai Seven Articles" for the real estate market, reducing the social security threshold for non-Shanghai residents to purchase homes within the outer ring to 1 year, and the maximum provident fund loan can reach 3.24 million [1] - **Industry News**: In December 2025, the global refined copper production was 2.2506 million tons, and the consumption was 2.1526 million tons, with a supply surplus of 98,000 tons. Uganda plans to connect a new railway under construction with another railway under construction in neighboring Tanzania, which is expected to open up a new export channel for minerals such as gold, copper, and iron ore. Hudbay Minerals has obtained the approval of the British Columbia provincial government in Canada to advance the three-phase expansion project of its Copper Mountain mine, and the mine's operating life will be extended to 2040 [1][3] 3. Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年02月26日 (原油) 铸造铝合金跟随沪铝波动，宏观驱动且铝价处于高位，铸造铝合金与沪铝价差季节性表现将持续弱 于往年。 (氧化铝) 夜盘时段，油价维持区间窄幅波动。EIA最新数据显示，上周美国原油库存增加1600万桶，创下 2023年2月以来最大单周增幅；库存总量升至4.358亿桶，为八个月以来的最高水平。前一日API数 据公布后我们曾提示美国原油库存超预期大幅增加对油价的利空影响总体有限。美伊第三轮谈判将 在26日于日内瓦举行，伊朗方面表示决心在最短时间内达成一项公平合理的协议。美国方面则持续 保持军事威慑，但当前冲突整体仍处于可控范围。总体来看，近期美伊地缘局势的演变仍是主导油 价波动的核心变量。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属偏强运行。美国贸易代表称正研究推进提升全球关税。地缘方面美伊新一轮谈判在即, 双方释放缓和信号但也保留军事行动选项。短期地缘和关税均处于关键节点，责金属等待进一步驱 动。 【铜】 隔夜铜价短线倾向震荡稳固在密集均线上方。贵金属与有色板块对美国关税不确定性的反映并不一 致，有色需求端主要关注关税相对低执行期，对国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in tin prices is driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors, supply constraints, and structural demand growth in emerging sectors such as AI and renewable energy [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Overnight, London tin prices rose by 7.19%, closing at $53,915 per ton, an increase of $3,615 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 884 contracts and an open interest of 21,849 contracts, up by 113 [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw the main contract for tin (2603) close at 423,990 yuan per ton, up by 23,130 yuan, reflecting a 5.77% increase [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply constraints are evident due to maintenance schedules at major domestic smelting enterprises during the Spring Festival, leading to a contraction in overall output [3]. - Global supply remains tight, particularly in key production areas like Myanmar and Indonesia, which are experiencing slow recovery and strict mining regulations, respectively [3]. - Demand is showing structural growth, particularly in emerging sectors such as electric vehicles, AI infrastructure, and photovoltaics, which are becoming the main drivers for tin consumption [3]. Group 3: Price Outlook - Short-term forecasts suggest that tin prices will continue to exhibit a strong rebound, although the pace of increase may slow, with prices expected to fluctuate between 415,000 and 425,000 yuan per ton [3]. - The market is advised to be cautious of potential profit-taking that could lead to technical corrections, although the fundamental supply-demand imbalance is expected to limit the extent of any price pullback [3].

2026年02月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：沪镍投机情绪仍存，持续关注镍矿矛盾 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：成本支撑重心上移，淡季累库约束弹性 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：情绪面发酵，盘面或高开高走 | 4 | | 工业硅：下方空间或不深 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注现货成交情况 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 26 日 镍：沪镍投机情绪仍存，持续关注镍矿矛盾 不锈钢：成本支撑重心上移，淡季累库约束弹性 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 141,250 | 3,300 | 6,060 | 9,410 | -1,810 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Real Estate Policy Impact**: The "Shanghai Seven Measures" in the real estate market significantly reduce the home - purchase threshold for non - Shanghai residents, support multi - child families and improvement - oriented demand, which is expected to activate the improvement - oriented demand and promote the market to return to a stable and healthy state [7][8]. - **Commodity Market Trends**: Different commodities have different trends. For example, black commodities may have a medium - term rebound due to the warming real - estate expectations; tin prices are likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term; LPG is short - term strong but has callback risks [8][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver is recommended to focus on the post - holiday gap - up [15]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The market for platinum may be boosted by news, and palladium follows a relatively strong trend [15][42]. 3.1.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: With improved sentiment, copper prices have rebounded. The supply was in surplus in December 2025, and some mining projects have expansion plans [23][25]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is in an interval oscillation [26]. - **Lead**: The increase in lead inventory restricts the price recovery [29]. - **Tin**: Tin is in a strong - oscillating state. The short - term rise is due to tight spot supply and capital inflow, and the medium - term supply support remains [10][32]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum is running strongly, alumina is slightly rebounding, and cast aluminum alloy is oscillating strongly [39]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: There is still speculative sentiment in Shanghai nickel, and continuous attention should be paid to the contradiction in nickel ore. For stainless steel, the cost support center moves up, but the off - season inventory accumulation restricts its elasticity [46]. 3.2 Energy and Minerals - **Iron Ore**: Due to the warming real - estate expectations, iron ore prices have rebounded [60]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both coke and coking coal are in wide - range oscillations [70]. - **Power Coal**: The upstream quotes of power coal are firm, and the short - term coal price is relatively strong [76]. - **LPG**: Supply tightening has led to a night - session surge, but there are also callback risks [11][126]. 3.3 Chemicals - **PX, PTA, and MEG**: PX and PTA are strongly supported by costs. MEG is in an interval - oscillation market, and a strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG is recommended [81]. - **Rubber**: Rubber is in a strong - oscillating state, and most tire enterprises have resumed work as planned after the Spring Festival [89]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Synthetic rubber is oscillating downward. The inventory of domestic butadiene rubber has increased significantly after the Spring Festival [92]. - **LLDPE and PP**: LLDPE has strong cost support from crude oil, and its own supply - demand pattern is average. For PP, the C3 raw material is relatively strong, and the PDH maintenance rate remains high [95]. - **Caustic Soda**: Caustic soda has large near - month delivery pressure but also cost support [97]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is in an oscillating state, and the upper and lower price limits are relatively limited [110]. - **Urea**: Urea is in a short - term oscillating state [116]. - **Styrene**: Styrene is in a strong - oscillating state. The short - term accumulation during the Spring Festival is lower than in previous years, and there is support from export expectations [119]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market for soda ash has little change, and the market is in a weak - stable adjustment [122]. - **Propylene**: The supply - demand of propylene remains tight, and the spot price is in a sideways consolidation [127]. - **PVC**: PVC is in an interval - oscillation state. The high - production and high - inventory structure has not changed, but there may be unexpected production cuts in the supply side in 2026 [135]. 3.4 Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil production reduction is realized, and a short - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended. Soybean oil is mainly in an interval - oscillation state affected by spot sentiment [166]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean**: The US trade remarks affect the soybean meal's price fluctuations, and the soybean price may adjust and oscillate due to the easing of Sino - US trade sentiment [173]. - **Corn**: Corn is in a strong - oscillating state [176]. - **Sugar**: The sentiment of sugar price increase is spreading. Different regions have different sugar production and consumption situations [180]. - **Cotton**: Cotton continues to be strong. The spot trading is light, and the cotton yarn market is gradually recovering [185]. - **Eggs**: Eggs are in a weak - oscillating state [190]. - **Hogs**: The hog futures market has pre - traded inventory accumulation, and it is difficult to reduce inventory in the off - season [193]. - **Peanuts**: Peanuts are in an oscillating state [198]. 3.5 Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: An oscillating approach is recommended. The supply and demand in March - April are in a weak - balance state, and the impact of geopolitical conflicts and tariff policies needs to be considered [139].