Market Overview - The A-share and stock index futures market are exhibiting distinct "pre-holiday characteristics" as the Spring Festival approaches, aligning with historical patterns of risk aversion and market sentiment contraction [1] - Trading volume has significantly shrunk, with the average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets dropping to around 2.5 trillion yuan in February, down from 3 trillion yuan in January [1] - The market is experiencing a cautious sentiment, with traders preferring short-term speculative trades rather than long-term holdings, reflecting increased uncertainty [1] Trading Behavior - The last week before the holiday is expected to see a continued decline in average daily trading volume due to traders' inclination to secure profits and a lack of willingness for new capital to enter the market [2] - The margin financing scale has also decreased, indicating a decline in risk appetite and cautious trading sentiment ahead of the holiday [2] - The current margin financing balance accounts for only 2.62% of the A-share market's circulating market value, suggesting a healthy market structure [2] Industry Performance - In the first week of February, there was a notable divergence in industry performance, with food and beverage, beauty care, transportation, and banking sectors showing gains, while sectors like non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, electronics, and petrochemicals faced declines [3] - Defensive sectors such as food and beverage and banking are performing better, aligning with the trend of risk-averse capital seeking stable returns [3] - The market sentiment has shifted from previous exuberance to a more rational phase, with long-term investors focusing on valuation and earnings certainty [3] Futures Market Dynamics - The significant divergence in performance among stock index futures is attributed to the varying styles in the spot market, with the price spread between IC and IH narrowing after reaching a historical high [4] - The price spread is expected to continue contracting in February, aligning with the mean reversion logic of stock index futures [4] - Post-holiday, there is a strong likelihood of a "New Year rally," driven by the return of previously withdrawn funds and positive market sentiment [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sector [5] Core Insights - The report highlights a general decline in non-ferrous metal prices, while gold, tungsten, molybdenum, and vanadium prices have increased on a month-on-month basis [1] - The liquidity environment for small and medium enterprises has improved, with the BCI index rising by 6.62% to 50.27 in January 2026 [11] - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing low inventory levels for hot-rolled steel, indicating potential supply constraints [21] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI index for small and medium enterprises increased to 50.27, reflecting a positive shift in financing conditions [11] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -4.7 percentage points in December 2025, indicating a contraction in liquidity [11] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Weekly inventory levels for hot-rolled steel are at a five-year low, with rebar prices down by 0.93% [21] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 86%, unchanged from the previous week [9] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at a five-year high, while the prices for cold-rolled, copper, and aluminum have decreased [2] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 23,110 CNY/ton, down 6.21% from the previous week [2] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.33%, with the engineering machinery sector showing the best performance at +4.35% [4] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.50, indicating potential undervaluation [4] Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and glass remain low, with the glass operating rate at 73.89% [1][76] - The cumulative year-on-year change in completed residential area was -18.10% for 2025 [76]

有色ETF汇添富（159652）标的指数成分股多数冲高，北方稀土涨超5%，紫金矿业、兴业银锡涨超4%，洛阳钼业、中金黄金等涨超2%，华友钴业、中国铝 业等微涨。 【有色ETF汇添富（159652）标的指数前十大成分股】 | 序号 | 代码 | 名标 | 申万一级行业 | 涨跌幅 | 估算权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 601899 | 崇舍矿业 | 有色金属 | 4.52% | 14.74% | | 2 | 603993 | 洛阳镇小 | 有色全属 | 2.27% | 7.77% | | 3 | 600111 | 北方稀土 | 有色全居 | 5.57% | 5.10% | | র্ব | 603799 | 华友钻业 | 有色全属 | 0.78% | 4.53% | | ਟ | 601600 | 中国铝业 | 有色全属 | 0.85% | 4.14% | | 6 | 600489 | 中金黄金 | 有色全属 | 2.47% | 3.48% | | 7 | 600547 | 山东黄金 | 有色全居 | 1.49% | 3.37% | | 8 | 0 ...

春节将至，投资者普遍关注节前节后港股市场表现规律。对此广发证券指出，历史数据显示，恒生指数在春节前3个交易日上涨概率高达82%，且上涨幅度 普遍较大。这反映出节前资金行为趋同，短期做多情绪明显。 图 2:春季~两会,A股上涨明显;港股没有明显的目历效应 St Friday ■ 上涨概率:春节->两会(2010年~2015年 100% 93.8% -93.8% 93.8% 87.5% 90% 81.39 it 80% 72.7% ter 2 5: 70% 62.5% 62.5% 56.3% 54 .! 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% el ck 02月 717 班 极 | 上涨概率 | 圣诞节-春节前 | 春节后-两会 | 两会期间 | 两会-3月底 | 1月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 恒生科技 | 72.7% | 72.7% | 45.5% | 50.0% | 63.6% | | 恒生指数 | 80.0% | 46.7% | 40.0% | 42.9% | 73.3% | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 73.3% | 40.0% | ...

Core Viewpoint - The continuous increase in gold holdings by the People's Bank of China for 15 consecutive months, along with spot gold prices returning to $5,000 per ounce, has led to a significant rise in the performance of the Huabao Nonferrous Metal ETF (159876), which saw an intraday increase of over 2.5% and is currently up by 1.89% [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Huabao Nonferrous Metal ETF (159876) is currently trading at 1.133, with a rise of 0.021 (1.89%) [2] - The ETF is a financing and margin trading target, providing an efficient tool for investors to gain exposure to the nonferrous metal sector [4] Group 2: Sector Performance - Major stocks in the nonferrous metal sector, such as Shenghe Resources and Hunan Silver, have surged over 9%, while Silver Nonferrous and others have also shown significant gains [3] - The overall market for nonferrous metals is expected to benefit from structural demand driven by AI computing expansion and energy transition, indicating that the structural market for commodities may not have ended [4]

Group 1 - The last week before the Spring Festival saw a rally in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, communications, and media, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 4100 points and stabilizing above the 5-day moving average [1] - Major stocks leading the index rebound include Zhongji Xuchuang (300308), Zijin Mining (601899), Xinyi Sheng (300502), and China Merchants Bank [1] - Multiple institutions recommend a "hold through the holiday" strategy, suggesting that the recent global narrative changes impacting market sentiment may be stabilizing, creating a favorable environment for market recovery [1] Group 2 - The current market is experiencing rapid structural rotation, making it risky to chase single industry themes; investors are advised to anchor to broad indices like the CSI 300 [2] - The CSI 300 Index consists of 300 representative securities from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, covering major sectors such as technology, cyclical, finance, and consumer [2] - As of now, there are over 30 ETFs related to the CSI 300 Index, with the lowest management fee for the Huaxia CSI 300 ETF at 0.15% per year [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Silverhua ETF (159871), which opened with a gain of 1.39% at 1.097 yuan on February 9 [1] - Major holdings in the Silverhua ETF include Zijin Mining, which rose by 3.50%, Luoyang Molybdenum by 2.14%, Northern Rare Earth by 2.97%, and others, indicating a positive trend in the sector [1] - The performance benchmark for the Silverhua ETF is the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index return, managed by Silverhua Fund Management Co., with a return of 116.82% since its inception on March 10, 2021, and a 4.72% return over the past month [1]

伦敦金属交易所（LME）公布数据显示，上周伦铜库存继续回升，最新库存水平为183,275吨，增至近九个月新高。 上海期货交易所最新公布数据显示，2月6日当周，沪铜库存继续累积，周度库存增加6.83%至248,911吨，增至逾十个月新高。国际铜库存增加2554吨至 18,348吨。 上周，纽铜库存继续累积，最新库存水平为589,081吨，再创阶段性新高。 | 日期 | COMEX | LME | SHFE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/2/6 | 589, 081 | 183, 275 | 248, 911 | | 2026/2/5 | 586, 429 | 180, 575 | | | 2026/2/4 | 584, 184 | 178, 650 | | | 2026/2/3 | 582, 292 | 176, 125 | | | 2026/2/2 | 579, 774 | 174, 675 | | | 2026/1/30 | 577, 724 | 174, 975 | 233, 004 | | 2026/1/29 | 575, 133 | 176, 075 | | | ...

Group 1 - Precious metals and non-ferrous metals collectively strengthened on February 9, with the non-ferrous metal ETF fund (516650) rising by 2.09%, and stocks like Shenghe Resources increasing by 9.49% [1] - Silver and rare earth stocks also saw significant gains, with silver rising by 5.94%, and companies like China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth following suit [1] - The price consumption is relatively flat as the Spring Festival approaches, and the increase in non-ferrous metals is limited compared to precious metals, indicating a potential return to fundamentals after the price surge [1] Group 2 - According to CITIC Securities, copper is testing the key support level of 100,000 yuan/ton, with expectations for downstream inventory replenishment likely to occur after the Spring Festival [1] - Global copper inventory has risen to 1.11 million tons, with 589,000 tons locked in the COMEX market, while aluminum prices are supported at 23,500 yuan/ton despite current inventory accumulation [1] - The prices of non-ferrous metals are influenced by both financial and commodity attributes, with the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle and global copper and aluminum inventories remaining relatively low, suggesting improved demand driven by economic recovery and the new energy sector [1] Group 3 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Theme Index (000811) include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and China Aluminum, collectively accounting for 51.85% of the index [2] - The weightings of the top stocks are as follows: Zijin Mining at 15.30%, Luoyang Molybdenum at 7.92%, and Northern Rare Earth at 5.30% [3] - The non-ferrous metal ETF fund (516650) has several off-market connections, including the Huaxia Non-Ferrous Metal ETF Connect A (016707) and C (016708) [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that commodities are a diversified asset for global capital allocation, with current valuations in energy and chemicals potentially at the lower end of the range, despite increased short-term volatility [1] - The report suggests that the structural demand for commodities driven by AI computing expansion and energy transition remains unchanged, indicating that the structural market for commodities may not be over [1] - The report anticipates that resource stocks will not end, and after a short-term adjustment, they are expected to regain upward momentum in the medium term [1] Group 2 - The report highlights a differentiated outlook for the commodity market in 2025, with precious and industrial metals expected to strengthen significantly due to AI computing expansion, rising electricity infrastructure demand, and geopolitical risks, positively impacting the A-share non-ferrous metal sector [1] - In contrast, energy and agricultural products are expected to perform weakly, with non-ferrous metals and some chemical products continuing to rise into early 2026 [1] - The report reviews the past 20 years of commodity cycles and their linkage with A-shares, noting that previous commodity rallies were typically driven by supply-demand mismatches and monetary environment resonance, with global economic recovery boosting demand while supply remained inflexible due to previous underinvestment [2]