赣锋锂业公告称，2025年3月10日公司董事会同意为子公司提供不超28亿元担保额度，4月2日经股东会 通过。近日，公司与某银行宜春分行签订合同，为全资子公司宜春银锂新能源提供两笔合计2.5亿元连 带责任担保，期限分别为2025.10.24 - 2026.04.24和2025.10.30 - 2026.10.29。截至公告披露日，公司实际 担保10.30亿元，占最近一期经审计归母净资产29.39%，无逾期等异常担保情形。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint of the Report The supply pressure of lithium carbonate is decreasing, while the demand continues to grow. With the continuous reduction of social inventory and the support from the downstream - concentrated inventory, the spot market price increase is supported, and it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to rise [8][11]. Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Market Review and Future Market Outlook - **Market Review**: In October, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose by 10.87%, with the contract running between 72,000 - 84,940. The total open interest increased by 30% to 883,000 lots. The spot lithium price also rose steadily, with a monthly increase of 9.5%. The supply reached its peak and the demand remained strong, leading to continuous inventory reduction in the social inventory of lithium carbonate [10]. - **Future Market Outlook**: The supply growth of lithium carbonate is limited, and the demand continues to increase. The social inventory is expected to continue to decline, and the price of lithium carbonate is expected to continue rising [11]. II. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Lithium Ore: Quantity and Price Increase**: By the end of October, the prices of Australian ore, high - grade and low - grade lithium mica all increased, with the increase of lithium ore prices greater than that of lithium carbonate. In September, China's lithium ore imports increased by 14.8% month - on - month. The output of lithium mica decreased while that of lithium spodumene increased [14][15][16]. - **Future Lithium Ore Supply Increment Analysis**: Australian ore supply is expected to increase steadily; African lithium ore production is growing; American lithium ore supply will increase slightly; China's new lithium ore projects will release production capacity, with the increment concentrated in 2026 [20][23][25][26]. - **Salt Factories are in Production Loss, but Lithium Carbonate Output Continues to Grow**: In October, the domestic lithium carbonate output reached a record high of 92,260 tons. In September, the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased. Although salt factories are in production loss, due to the good downstream demand, it is expected that the output in November will remain at the October level [28][29]. - **Future Lithium Carbonate Supply Increment Analysis**: From 2025 to 2026, the increment of lithium ore will be 16.2 and 17.5 tons LCE respectively, and the increment of lithium carbonate from salt lakes will be 9.8 and 10.3 tons respectively. With the increment from the recycling end, the total lithium resource increment in 2025 and 2026 is expected to be 27.6 and 29.3 tons [33]. III. Demand Side: New Energy Vehicles and Energy Storage Demand Drive High Growth of Lithium Batteries - **Positive Electrode Materials: Quantity and Price Increase**: By the end of October, the prices of various positive electrode materials increased. In September, the output of positive electrode materials also increased, and it is expected that the high - prosperity situation will continue until the end of the year [35][36]. - **Lithium Batteries: Price and Quantity Increase, and Exports are Good**: By the end of October, the prices of various lithium batteries increased. In October, the output of lithium batteries increased significantly, and the export continued to increase while the inventory decreased. It is expected that the output in November will exceed 200GWH [45][46]. - **China and Europe Lead the Global New Energy Vehicle Sales Growth**: From January to September, the global new energy vehicle sales increased by 29.3% year - on - year. China, Europe, and the United States all showed growth, with China's new energy vehicle sales reaching 11.2 million, a 35% year - on - year increase [53]. - **High Growth in the Energy Storage Field**: From January to October 2025, the output of China's energy storage cells increased by 55% year - on - year. The domestic energy storage tender scale continued to expand, and it is estimated that the annual output in 2025 will reach 520GWH [56]. IV. Lithium Carbonate Production Cost Analysis The production costs of lithium carbonate from different raw materials vary greatly. The current cost support level of lithium carbonate is around 62,000 yuan/ton [57]. V. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet In October, the domestic social inventory of lithium carbonate continued to decline, and it is expected that the market will continue to reduce inventory in the context of increasing demand and stable supply [59].

Core Viewpoint - Chuaneng Power (000155) is actively pursuing lithium mining opportunities in Sichuan province, particularly in Ganzi and Aba prefectures, in addition to its existing Li Jiagou lithium mine [1] Group 1 - The company’s controlling shareholder, Chuaneng Capital, holds exploration rights for the Li Jiagou North lithium mine [1] - The company plans to continuously track the progress of lithium mining resources that are set to be auctioned in the province [1] - The company aims to accelerate the acquisition of lithium mining resources within the province [1]

Group 1 - Ganfeng Lithium announced the release of 4.6 million shares from pledge by shareholder Li Liangbin [1] - As of the announcement date, Li Liangbin and his concerted actors have a total of approximately 91.95 million pledged shares, accounting for 22.61% of his holdings and 4.46% of the company's total share capital [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The narrative of strong terminal demand continues, the de - stocking of social inventory increases, and the degree of supply - demand mismatch deepens. However, from a fundamental perspective, the hedging pressure at the upper level is gradually released, weakening the upward momentum. The market has begun to show differences (there are rumors of mine restarts), and further stimulation from funds, events, and news is needed to continue to drive up prices. Otherwise, prices will remain low [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 80,550 yuan, up 550 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 78,350 yuan, up 550 yuan [1] - For lithium carbonate futures contracts, the closing price of lithium carbonate 2511 is 79,300 yuan, with a decline of 3.6%; lithium carbonate 2512 is 80,720 yuan, down 3.33%; lithium carbonate 2601 is 80,780 yuan, down 3.42%; lithium carbonate 2602 is 80,480 yuan, down 3.25%; lithium carbonate 2603 is 80,320 yuan, down 3.21% [1] Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li20: 5.5% - 6%) is 944 yuan, unchanged; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1380 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 2180 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 7400 yuan, down 250 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 8825 yuan, down 250 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 35,940 yuan, up 135 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 157,850 yuan, up 100 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 139,300 yuan, up 300 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 137,950 yuan, up 200 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2200 yuan; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 230 yuan, with a change of 3170 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 1420 yuan, unchanged; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 1480 yuan, up 80 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 127,358 tons, down 3008 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 32,051 tons, down 1630 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 53,288 tons, down 1987 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 42,020 tons, up 610 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 27,621 tons, down 20 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 80,623 yuan, with a profit of - 1205 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 85,678 yuan, with a profit of - 8291 yuan [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to increase, with the predicted production in the next month rising by 3.01% to 89,890 tons and the import volume increasing by 12.26% to 22,000 tons. The demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced. The cost of 6% concentrate CIF remains unchanged daily, lower than the historical average. The price of lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate between 79,800 - 81,760 [9]. - The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate for external use has a daily increase of 0.21%, resulting in a loss of -1,205 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lithium mica remains unchanged, with a loss of -8,291 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [11]. - The overall situation shows a mismatch between production capacity, leading to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 21,080 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.07%, higher than the historical average. In September 2025, the production was 87,260 tons, and the predicted production for the next month is 89,890 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.01%. The import volume in September was 19,597 tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month is 22,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.26% [8][9]. - Demand: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 104,979 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.61%, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 18,890 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.60%. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - Cost: The daily price of 6% concentrate CIF remains unchanged, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate for external use has a daily increase of 0.21%, and the cost of purchasing lithium mica remains unchanged [9][11]. - Price: The price of lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate between 79,800 - 81,760 [9]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Fundamental: Neutral. The cost of external spodumene concentrate has a daily increase of 0.21%, resulting in a loss of -1,205 yuan/ton. The cost of external lithium mica remains unchanged, with a loss of -8,291 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [11]. - Basis: On October 31, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,550 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was -230 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Neutral [11]. - Inventory: The total inventory is 127,358 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.30%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of smelters is 32,051 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.83%, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory is 53,288 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.59%, higher than the historical average. Other inventories are 42,020 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.47%, lower than the historical average. Neutral [11]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes above the MA20. Bullish [11]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position decreases. Bearish [11].

Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates a shift towards a lithium supply deficit due to increased demand from energy storage systems (ESS) and electric vehicles (EV), with significant upward revisions in lithium price forecasts [1][8][19]. Demand Analysis - The forecast for ESS shipments in China has been raised significantly, with expected growth rates of 40% in 2025 and 29% in 2026, leading to a total shipment of 349 GWh by 2026 [3]. - Global lithium demand is projected to reach 2.83 million tons by 2030, with ESS accounting for 36% of this demand [5][6]. - The demand for lithium from electric vehicles is expected to grow by 3%-5% annually from 2025 to 2030 [6][9]. Supply Analysis - The supply side remains constrained, with uncertainties surrounding the restart of CATL's lithium mines, which are crucial for meeting the rising demand [7]. - Western mining companies have indicated that they will only consider restarting idle capacity if lithium prices stabilize between $1,200 and $1,500 per ton [7][19]. Price Forecast - Short-term lithium price forecasts have been revised upwards from $800 per ton to $1,100 and $1,200 for 2026 and 2027, respectively, reflecting the current supply-demand imbalance [8][18]. - Long-term lithium price expectations have been adjusted from $1,100 to $1,300 per ton, aligning with market consensus and the need for higher prices to incentivize new supply [19][20]. Stock Ratings - Pilbara Minerals' rating has been upgraded from Underweight to Overweight, reflecting improved market conditions and expectations for higher lithium prices [4][12]. - Other companies such as Mineral Resources, IGO, and Liontown Resources have also seen their ratings adjusted to Neutral, indicating a more favorable outlook based on the revised demand and price forecasts [12][13][14].

"从价格看，锂价似乎涨得也不多，但相较于之前的长期磨底，已经很不错了，产业内企业多少都能赚 点钱了。"江西某锂盐企业员工告诉上海证券报记者，除了锂价回暖外，各企业的产能利用率也有了很 大提升。 碳酸锂行业再次回暖，其催化剂正是储能。相关数据显示，2025年前三季度全球锂电储能装机超 170GWh，同比增长68%。 储能需求持续释放 碳酸锂"量价齐升"有望延续 ◎记者 李少鹏 赣锋锂业同比增长364.02%，雅化集团同比增长278.06%，盐湖股份同比增长113.97%……翻看A股锂矿 企业的第三季度净利润增长数据，碳酸锂产业或已熬过"寒冬"。 "先是行业'反内卷'引发的期货价格上涨，再是储能产业爆发带来的实际需求，算是喘过一口气了。"A 股某锂盐企业高管感慨道。对于行业公司第三季度业绩的集体爆发，该人士认为，储能需求拉动"功不 可没"，目前从储能排产来看，碳酸锂需求未来一段时期内将保持增长。 储能需求拉动碳酸锂量价齐升 "我的钢铁网"10月31日数据显示，电池级碳酸锂平均报价为82100元/吨，较6月下旬上涨超过36%。 储能需求有多强？据了解，目前头部电池企业基本处于满产状态，部分企业的订单甚至已排到明年初 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "sideways" rating for lithium carbonate [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices first rose and then fell, with the closing prices of LC2511 and LC2601 showing increases. Lithium hydroxide prices stabilized, and the price spread changed accordingly. The domestic lithium carbonate inventory decreased, but there were market rumors affecting the market sentiment, leading to profit - taking by long positions [1][2][13] - From a fundamental perspective, the demand side is expected to remain strong in November, with a slight increase in production of ternary and lithium iron phosphate cathodes and batteries. There is still room for a slight increase in apparent demand in November, and the monthly inventory reduction is expected to exceed 10,000 tons before the resumption of supply - side projects. However, the inventory reduction is expected to slow down from late November [3][15] - In terms of strategy, the short - term market will focus on the resumption rhythm of Jiangxi mica projects, with increased market volatility. It is recommended to use a range - trading approach. In the medium term, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the demand reaches a phased peak. For arbitrage, the reverse arbitrage of LC2511 - LC2601 has been gradually realized and can be gradually closed, and attention should be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity of LC2601 against more distant contracts [3][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Seasonal Inventory Reduction Accelerates, and Supply - Side Game Intensifies - Lithium salt prices showed a trend of rising first and then falling last week. The closing prices of LC2511 and LC2601 increased by 0.5% and 1.6% respectively, and the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 6.8% and 7.1% respectively. Lithium hydroxide prices stabilized, and the price spread changed [1][13] - The domestic lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 0.3 million tons to 12.7 million tons this week, accelerating the inventory reduction. However, market rumors on Friday led to profit - taking by long positions [2][14] - The demand side is expected to remain strong in November, with a slight increase in production of ternary and lithium iron phosphate cathodes and batteries. There is still room for a slight increase in apparent demand in November, and the monthly inventory reduction is expected to exceed 10,000 tons before the resumption of supply - side projects. The inventory reduction is expected to slow down from late November [3][15] - In terms of strategy, short - term market volatility will increase with the game over the resumption of Jiangxi mica projects. A range - trading approach is recommended. In the medium term, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the demand reaches a phased peak. The reverse arbitrage of LC2511 - LC2601 can be gradually closed, and attention should be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity of LC2601 against more distant contracts [3][16] 3.2 Weekly Industry News Review - Pilbara's lithium spodumene production in Q3 2025 increased by 1.7% quarter - on - quarter, the sales price of spodumene SC6 increased by 19% quarter - on - quarter, and the operating cost per ton decreased by 13% [17] - Dazhong Mining's wholly - owned subsidiary obtained the mining license for the Hunan Jijiaoshan lithium mine, with a lithium ore resource of 489.872 million tons, equivalent to about 3.2443 million tons of lithium carbonate [17] - Albemarle's 16,400 dry tons of 5.21% lithium spodumene concentrate was sold at a price of RMB 7,058 per ton [18] - Imerys is in exclusive negotiations to sell a minority stake in its lithium mine project in central France and is confident of completing the transaction by the end of January [18] 3.3 Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.3.1 Resource End: Spot Quotes of Lithium Concentrate Rise - The spot price of lithium concentrate increased, with the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) rising from $881 per ton to $944 per ton, a 7.2% increase [14] 3.3.2 Lithium Salt: Position Reduction and Price Decline due to News Disturbance - The main contract of lithium carbonate showed an upward trend with increasing positions last week, but there was a significant position reduction of 22,000 lots on Friday, accompanied by a 3.14% decline, with a weekly increase of 1.6% [2][14] 3.3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Ternary and Lithium Cobalt Oxide Remain Strong - The production of ternary and lithium iron phosphate cathodes increased slightly, and the prices of downstream intermediate products such as ternary materials and lithium cobalt oxide showed an upward or stable trend [15][14] 3.3.4 Terminal: The Penetration Rate of New Energy Vehicles Reached 50% in September - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 50% in September, indicating strong terminal demand [41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yongxing Materials [1] Core Views - The cost advantage of lithium carbonate is sustained, and there is potential for price elasticity in the future [1][8] - The company is expected to maintain a low cost level, with lithium prices projected to stabilize around 80,000 yuan/ton, which may release profit elasticity [8] - The report has adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of 700 million, 980 million, and 1.41 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 32% in 2025, but growth of 39% and 44% in 2026 and 2027 [8] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported total revenue of 1.855 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.4%, with a gross margin of 16.6% [8] - The average price of lithium carbonate in Q3 2025 was 71,000 yuan/ton, with a stable all-in cost estimated at 48,000 yuan/ton [8] - The company’s operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2025 was 460 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.1% [8] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The total revenue forecast for 2023 is 12.189 billion yuan, with a projected decline of 21.76% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 3.407 billion yuan for 2023, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 46.09% [1] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in downstream demand for special steel, with expected contributions of nearly 350 million yuan in profit for the full year 2025 [8]